STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday April 22

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday April 22, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 21, 2010

Dow... 11,124.92 +7.86 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq... 2,504.61 +4.30 (+0.17%)
S&P 500... 1,205.94 -1.23 (-0.10%)
Gold future... 1,147 -2.10 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.73 -0.06 (-1.69%)
30-Year Bond 4.61 -0.06 (-1.26%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 04/17
Briefing.com 440K
Consensus 450K
Prior 484K

08:30 Continuing Claims 04/10
Briefing.com 4600K
Consensus 4600K
Prior 4639K

08:30 PPI Mar
Briefing.com 0.7%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior -0.6%

08:30 Core PPI Mar
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.1%

10:00 Existing Home Sales Mar
Briefing.com 5.30M
Consensus 5.28M
Prior 5.02M

10:00 FHFA Home Price Index Feb
Briefing.com -0.2%
Consensus -0.2%
Prior -0.6%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

16. Initial claims @ 456,000 - last wk rev'd up 10k - U.S. March wholesale vegetable prices up 49%

U.S. March wholesale vegetable prices up 49% 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. March PPI driven by higher food prices 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. March PPI up 0.7%, core PPI up 0.1% 8:30 a.m. Today

Total jobless claims 10.54 million, down 538,000 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. continuing claims down 40,000 to 4.65 million 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 24,000 to 456,000 8:30 a.m. Today

[ozymandius]

2. Oil eases hovers near $84 in Asia

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices hovered near $84 a barrel Thursday in Asia amid indications of weak crude demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy consumer. ...

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the nation's oil supply grew last week to 355.9 million barrels and gas supplies rose to 3.6 million barrels. Both are above average for this time of year, indicating demand is lagging supply.

The EIA report also said motorists are burning more gasoline than last year, but demand hasn't increased enough to cut into the huge surplus that built up during the recession. ...

In other Nymex trading in May contracts, heating oil rose 0.92 cent to $2.215 a gallon and gasoline gained 0.35 cent to $2.286 a gallon. Natural gas was up 2.6 cents to $3.981 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

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Anymore - oil is disconnected from any notion of supply and demand.

[ozymandius]

3. Obama keeps up pressure for financial overhaul

WASHINGTON – Ramping up pressure for a financial overhaul, President Barack Obama is heading to the place where the economic meltdown began to argue for stronger government oversight of the industry and to urge Congress to finish a regulatory bill quickly.

In a speech Thursday at New York's Cooper Union college, near Wall Street, Obama was to outline the need for new financial regulations and explain what the nation would be risking if the existing framework is allowed to remain in place. ...

The sweeping regulation, representing the broadest attempt to overhaul the U.S. financial system since the 1930s, aims to prevent another crisis. Democrats are preparing to bring the Senate version of the bill up for debate, but solid GOP opposition has complicated the effort. The House passed its version of the bill in December.

The bills would create a mechanism for liquidating large, interconnected financial firms considered too big to fail. At the height of crisis in 2008, the Bush administration and the Federal Reserve were forced to provide billions of taxpayer dollars to prop up the giant insurer American International Group Inc., several banks and various financial institutions. The moves were highly unpopular with voters.

The bills also, for the first time, would impose oversight on the market for derivatives — complicated financial instruments whose value is derived from the value of other investments. The measures also would create a council to detect threats to the broader financial system and establish a consumer protection agency to police consumers' dealings with banks and other financial institutions.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100422/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama

[ozymandius]

4. Asian markets fall amid Greece debt worries

HONG KONG – Asian stock markets were mostly lower Thursday after a mediocre finish on Wall Street, as more worries about Greece's debt crisis eroded confidence in a world recovery. European stocks edged up in early trade.

Major Asian markets sank as much as 2 percent after ending the previous session up, though recouped some of their losses later in the day. Oil prices were trading near $84 a barrel, while the dollar weakened against the yen and the euro. ....

Investors grew more cautious after Greece's borrowing costs jumped to record highs Wednesday as the government began crucial talks on the details of a rescue package orchestrated by the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund. The country's debt woes have raised fears of a contagion and dragged Europe's shared currency sharply lower in recent months. ....

Leading Asia's decline was Japan, where the Nikkei 225 stock index dropped 140.96 points, or 1.3 percent, to 10,949.09. News that the nation's exports expanded for a fourth straight month in March did little to lure buyers to the market.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong's main stock index shed 0.3 percent to 21,454.94 and South Korea's Kospi lost 0.5 percent to 1,739.52. China's Shanghai index retreated 1.1 percent to 2,999.48.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100422/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

6. Greek 2009 Deficit Was Wider Than Expected

LONDON—The European Union's official statistics agency Thursday said the Greek budget deficit in 2009 was wider than the government had estimated, and added that it has reservations about the accuracy of Greek budget data that may lead to further upward revisions.

In the first of its twice-yearly reviews of government finances in the 27-member bloc, Eurostat said the Greek government's budget deficit was 13.6% of gross domestic product last year. ...

The Greek government had estimated the deficit was 12.7% of GDP in 2009, although it has acknowledged that Eurostat's estimate may be higher because of differences in the way it accounts for surpluses in the state-run pension fund.

The new uncertainty on Greece's fiscal liabilities rattled the European currency and bond markets, with the euro slumping to $1.3370 from about $1.3400 within minutes of the news.

The cost of insuring Greece's sovereign debt against default using credit default swaps hit a fresh high again Thursday, as Greek five-year sovereign CDS rose to 5.5 percentage points for the first time. That means the annual cost of insuring $10 million of Greek sovereign bonds for five years has risen more to $550,000 from $518,500 earlier in the morning.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703876404575199520197362174.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

[ozymandius]

5. Along with SEC, other investigators and suits may target Goldman Sachs

NEW YORK -- As investigators in Massachusetts considered charging Wall Street firms for their role in the financial collapse, they focused on Goldman Sachs because it had bundled and sold the shoddiest of subprime mortgage loans, setting up the housing market for a greater fall by continuing to sell shaky securities even as other banks withdrew.

After discussions with the office of state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D), Goldman last year agreed to pay up to $60 million to end that investigation, the first major settlement involving Wall Street's role in the subprime mortgage crisis.

"Goldman was particularly active with respect to facilitating the lending by two of the more notorious and unsound subprime lenders -- Fremont and New Century," Coakley said Wednesday. "Goldman was especially active with these companies in the latter stages of the subprime lending boom . . . when it should have been increasingly clear to any responsible person that the subprime loan pools underlying securitizations suffered serious problems."

Even before the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Goldman last week, accusing it of creating a complex financial product designed to fail and selling it to unknowing investors, the firm had become a frequent target of investigators. In courts and in Congress, Goldman has been accused of a range of misdeeds, including manipulating oil prices and using taxpayer money for handsome bonuses. ...

In Washington, pressure is also growing. Reps. Elijah E. Cummings (D-Md.) and Peter A. DeFazio (D-Ore.) urged the SEC this week to widen its investigation to include securities underwritten by Goldman and backed by American International Group, the insurer that received a massive federal bailout. "Should any of these transactions be found to include fraudulent conduct, any resulting contractual payments from AIG-issued credit-default swaps could be viewed as ill-gotten gains," the lawmakers wrote in a letter to SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/21/AR2010042105394.html

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From the tone of the process, it looks like this civil case could quickly evolve into a criminal one.

[ozymandius]

7. Well, looky here. Criminal charges being discussed!

House Democrats calling for criminal investigation of Goldman Sachs

A growing number of House Democrats are asking the Department of Justice to open a criminal investigation into Goldman Sachs.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) made the request Tuesday in a letter to Attorney General Eric Holder. Since then, almost 20 of her colleagues have signed on.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a fraud action against Goldman for allegedly promoting a package of investments that was designed to fail. But the SEC can only pursue civil actions. Kaptur wants the Justice Department (DOJ) to consider criminal charges as well.

more at link...

[tclambert]

11. Nah, they were careful to buy a law first, before doing the evil.

It's a new business paradigm. Think of something illegal you can make money on, then pay lobbyists to shop for a friendly Congressperson to sponsor a bill to legalize it. If you word it right (your lobbyist gets to write the bill), it will only apply to your company, not any competitors.

As an alternative you can challenge current law in the Supreme Court, and as soon as you say, "the best interests of our business . . ." Chief Justice Roberts will yell, "SOLD!"

[Demeter]

24. but Even Congress Can't Legalize Fraud

unless they themselves commit it...

[ozymandius]

8. ABACUS Spells More Trouble for Ratings Agencies

By Jack McHugh - April 21st, 2010 at The Big Picture

Here is a poignant excerpt:

President Obama’s Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, appeared on the Charlie Rose show this week and denied the White House had any involvement in the SEC’s suit against Goldman Sachs. President Obama himself said much the same this afternoon, so I will take them at their word that the West Wing had no role in the SEC’s decision to pursue Goldman in the way it did. There are other questions, though, and many of them came to me via phone calls and emails on the subject. Rather than attempting to weave them together with standard prose, I’ve decided to pose some of the better ones in a Q & A format.

Q: Why did Paulson & Company get to pick the securities to be referenced in ABACUS?
A: Sorry, but this misconception is a common one. Paulson’s firm may have wanted poor securities backing this synthetic CDO, and they might have even made this desire known to the issuer, Goldman Sachs. But the primary — and final — determination on security selection was the responsibility of the CDO manager. The manager was ACA, not Paulson & Co. .....

Q: Did Goldman disclose its potential conflicts as issuer of ABACUS?
A: Yes, under Risk Factors — if investors bothered to read the documents

Q: If there were so many risks enumerated to investors, why did any of them buy ABACUS at all?
A: Probably because the investors were relying too heavily on the ratings the deal received from the likes of S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch. Investors during the credit bubble often took due diligence shortcuts by relying on the creditworthiness implied by the ratings.

Q: But didn’t Goldman Sachs pay the agencies to rate the deal, potentially corrupting the ratings process for ABACUS?
A: Yes, the issuer (in this case, GS) pays the agencies to rate the deals, and its a hopelessly conflicted process that is mandated by law. Any buyer with a brain would have hired an independent ratings group like Egan-Jones to verify and then validate what the oligopolists (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch) came up with in terms of ratings.

Q: Isn’t it foolish to have the issuer pay, since issuers will want to direct ratings business to those agencies willing to juice up their ratings to win the fee?
A: Yes, this absurd ratings process encourages higher ratings than the paper deserves

Q: So who set up such a dumb system for rating securities?
A: Congress, that’s who. Only Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch have the legal authority to issue officially recognized securities ratings, and Congress thought issuers should pay in order to (theoretically) lower the costs for buyers.

Q: How do the agencies defend themselves when their conflicted ratings end up leading so many investors astray?
A: Historically, they’ve claimed their ratings are protected by the First Amendment to the Constitution.

Q: What? They claim their pay-to-play ratings are covered under free speech?
A: Yes. Though this defense is starting to weaken (see below). Let’s all hope the courts start to recognize that bought and paid-for ratings are actually commerce, not speech. Unfortunately, what the agencies have always claimed as speech has turned out to be anything but free. To this day, and around the world, investors are still paying a frightfully high cost for our ludicrous system of rating securities.

[Demeter]

25. So, According to the Big Picture--No Foul, No Penalty, Caveat Emptor?

I think there's something about collusion about it. Not to mention fraud. You can follow all the steps, but still, outside the process, there can be crime.

[fasttense]

13. So you can buy your way out of criminal charges?

"After discussions with the office of state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D), Goldman last year agreed to pay up to $60 million to end that investigation."

So If I rob a bank, can I offer $3 million to end the investigation against me?

If Corporations are people they should be held accountable like people.

[ozymandius]

9. Are Interest Rate Derivatives a Ticking Time Bomb?

This is an excellent tutorial through the subject of derivatives markets. If you have the time a patience, I suggest reading through this post because it categorically explains how these exotic financial products grew from the most boring of investment vehicles: bonds tied to interest rates.

From the blog post:

As Wikipedia notes:

The interest rate derivatives market is the largest derivatives market in the world. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that the notional amount outstanding in June 2009 were US$437 trillion for OTC interest rate contracts, and US$342 trillion for OTC interest rate swaps. According to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, 80% of the world’s top 500 companies as of April 2003 used interest rate derivatives to control their cashflows.

So interest rate derivatives are the world’s largest market.

The largest interest rate derivatives sellers include Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman and JP Morgan. While the CDS market is dominated by American banks, the interest rate derivatives market is more international.

In comparison to the almost $500 trillion in interest rate derivatives, BIS estimates that there were “only” $36 trillion in credit default swaps as of June 2009. Credit default swaps were largely responsible for bringing down Bear Stearns, AIG (and see this), WaMu and other mammoth corporations.

Where’s the Danger?

In 2003, John Hussman wrote:

What is not so obvious is the extent to which the U.S. economy and financial markets are betting on the continuation of unusually low short-term interest rates and a steep yield curve. This doesn’t necessarily resolve into immediate risks, but it could profoundly affect the path that the economy and financial markets take during the next few years, by making the unwinding of debt much more abrupt.

In response to very low short-term interest rates, many U.S. corporations have swapped their long-term (fixed interest rate) debt into short-term (floating interest rate) debt, to the extent that an increase in short-term rates could substantially raise default risks. Similarly, a growing proportion of homeowners have refinanced their mortgages into adjustable rate structures that are also sensitive to higher short-term yields. Finally, profitability in the banking system is unusually dependent on a steep yield curve, with a widening net interest margin (the difference between long-term rates banks charge borrowers and the lower short-term rates they pay depositors) …..

In short, the U.S. financial system is in a delicate balance. On the issuer side, a great many borrowers have linked their debt obligations to short-term interest rates. This is tolerated by the financial system because the debt has been swapped out through financial intermediaries, so investors get to hold relatively safe instruments like bank deposits and Fannie Mae securities. This mountain of debt in the U.S. financial system – tied to short-term interest rates – is ultimately and perhaps somewhat inadvertently backed by the U.S. government. .....

And Monday, Jerome Corsi argued that cities, states and universities might be wiped out by changes in interest rates:

As interest rates begin to rise worldwide, losses in derivatives may end up bankrupting a wide range of institutions, including municipalities, state governments, major insurance companies, top investment houses, commercial banks and universities.

Defaults now beginning to occur in a number of European cities prefigure what may end up being the largest financial bubble ever to burst – a bubble that today amounts to more than $600 trillion.

This is a long and substantive entry. As we have been taught in the Goldman Sachs/Paulson scam, fraud is the basis for the derivative markets' structure.

Naked Capitalism link

[Tansy_Gold]

17. Here comes one of Tansy's questions --

I haven't had time yet to read through the entire link, so I'm going to post this question and if you want to tell me the answer is in the link, I'll find time later to read it.

But here's the question, or maybe questions --

If this "bubble" amounts to $600 trillion with a T, who ultimately would get that money? We're talking about investments that are essentially wild ass bets at some hyperVegas roulette wheel, but when the whole thing gets paid off, someone gets the money. Someone "wins." Who is that?

If I were to walk into a Vegas casino and tell them I want to bet $100,000 on. . . .whatever. . . .they'd laugh at me. Tansy Gold doesn't have $100,000 to gamble with. Tansy Gold doesn't have $100,000 period. So they wouldn't take my bet. They'd be stupid to do so, because if I won, I'd walk away with the money, but the bigger chance is that I'd lose and they'd get nothing. But in a scenario like that, we know who the "winner" is likely to be, and the loser.

But in the derivatives game, are the holders of those $600T in markers also essentially betting that the various governments will come in and back up the bets? That's what it has seemed like to me.

And if the governments -- who are NOT backing up the universities and the pension funds -- bail out the BANKS that are making these bets, which appears to be what has happened so far, who gave the governments the right to do that? And yes, that is kind of a rhetorical question because I know how governments work. But by the same token, I think we need to look at the role government is playing -- and not just in the US -- in managing and/or manipulating the whole FIRE foundation of "the economy."

Debt as investment seems to me to be merely an off-balance-sheet euphemism for gambling for greed. Words have meanings and consequences, and I think we need to get back to calling spades spades, crooks crooks, and greedy ass selfish children who don't want to take care of their aging parents but do want to inherit all the money, well, we should call them what they are.


Tansy Gold, who got a post pulled last night for doing the latter and doesn't care. :evilgrin:

[DemReadingDU]

18. I think whoever is first to cash in their derivative bets

Get the loot, whatever is there. The rest hold empty bags. This is why I think there ultimately will be a mass exit to the doors to grab the loot when the dominoes begin to fall. Everyone will be at the doors at the same time trying to grab what they can, but there isn't enough to satisfy everyone because the derivatives have been so grossly betted.

Edit: All the governments in the world will not be able to bailout all these derivative bets, without plunging into a black hole of debt. They might try with stopping the 'entitlements' (food stamps, unemployment checks, etc), but the hole will just get too large.


Hope Miss Mattie is feeling better.

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Miss Mattie is feeling lots better. She barked at a bucket this morning

The BF bought a new tool bucket and left it on the porch last night. Mattie saw it this morning when I went to let them all out and she did NOT like it. And she let that bucket know, in no uncertain terms, that she didn't like it. That's her first serious barking since Sunday, and it was good to hear. She barks a lot -- especially at rabbits, which we have billions of -- so I'm sure we'll be complaining about it soon enough, but at the moment it's pretty darn welcome.

She's feeling much more like her old self, and she's now rejoined the rest of her pack, which is a good thing. They missed her, too.



TG

[tclambert]

21. Is it a blue bucket? 'Cause there's this walrus . . .

[Tansy_Gold]

23. Okay, that went right over my head. ;-) The bucket is orange

from Home Depot, 'cause the BF is all about sales and not ideology.



TG

[Robbien]

29. There was this walrus

who had a blue bucket. He just loved his blue bucket but, oh no, someone took it away. The Walrus is looking for his blue bucket.

That's the story. Some story huh!

Well, it started out as an lolcats picture and then went somehow went viral. There are sites, memes and games all about this walrus and his lost blue bucket.

click:

Teh story of teh lolrus who haz lost his Bukkit
http://www.speaklolspeak.com/page/Teh+story+of+teh+lolrus+who+haz+lost+his+Bukkit?t=anon

[DemReadingDU]

30. I've never heard of this story

I'll ask my 30-something kids if they heard of it.

[tclambert]

35. See also icanhascheezburger.com

They have lolcats, loldogs, and lolcelebs. A dog person, such as TG and Doc might prefer accessing it thru http://ihasahotdog.com/

Also they have politics, only nothing serious, just lols.

[tclambert]

36. Orange was my second guess, becuase it's Home Depot's color.

The crack about HD's ideology went over my head. What's that about?

All I know about Home Depot is my son says they are self-replicating. A delivery truck crashed through the wall of a local one and they repaired the damage in a couple of days from materials they had in stock.

[Tansy_Gold]

37. HD's CEO made some ugly remark months/years ago

I think about unions or maybe health care or whatever. A disgusting rightwing attitude. And the company is a big contributor to the pukes.

BF shops that other anti-union, anti-human retailer that I won't even dignify by naming. But BF is all about BF and BF's $$, so there you have it.

[Hawkowl]

27. Insanity

The entire world is not worth 600 trillion dollars. The entire world economy is only worth about 55 trillion dollars. So the entire outstanding notional value of interest derivatives is about 11.5 years of every thing produced, or service provided by the population of the entire planet.

Gee. What a great idea. So if the banksters and hedge fund managers are betting on being reimbursed by governments they are dumber than a bag of goat shit.

Even if they have the musical chair strategy of being the first ones to cash out of the game, when the game ends, the world will come and kick in their doors and take the money back. That is the only possible endgame. A full on imprisonment of dozens if not hundreds of Madoff wanna-bees. (Well if things get really out of hand, a lot of bankers could end up like the Romanovs).


Hawkowl, who gets so many posts pulled anymore that he wonders who actually is running this joint.

[Demeter]

26. They Are All Nuts

I wouldn't hold a piece of paper, period. The Gold Bugs are going to be the only people with anything, and they will sneering for a century. The IRA is going into real estate, pronto. As long as there's no mortgage, it's the only thing of value I can buy and hold.

unless I get a supertanker off EBay at a huge discount....

[Dr.Phool]

33. I know a guy who'll give you a good deal on a bridge.

[ozymandius]

10. Good morning, all and I hope you have a nice day.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Time to get out the door.

:hi:

[burf]

12. Good morning to all

Thanks to everyone for your kind words and support yesterday. It just goes to show how great the people here at SMW and WEE are.

Have a great day!

[Festivito]

14. Debt: 04/20/2010 12,871,255,665,556.84 (UP 8,206,250,340.46) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,370,455,550,588.61 + 4,500,800,114,968.23
UP 349,194,756.21 + UP 7,857,055,584.25

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,108,177 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,639.97.
A family of three owes $124,919.91. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 9,139,823,393.49.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,007,197,935.01.
The average for the last 32 days would be 6,569,248,064.07.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 138 reports in 202 days of FY2010 averaging 6.97B$ per report, 4.76B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,006 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 19.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/20/2010 12,871,255,665,556.84 BHO (UP 2,244,378,616,643.76 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,961,426,662,045.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,737,231,344,784.47 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********

170,382,057,196.65 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4351455&mesg_id=4351504

[Festivito]

34. Debt: 04/21/2010 12,865,514,120,486.88 (DOWN 5,741,545,069.96) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,370,635,856,604.98 + 4,494,878,263,881.90
UP 180,306,016.37 + DOWN 5,921,851,086.33

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,114,824 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,620.5.
A family of three owes $124,861.51. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 8,519,766,374.18.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,815,813,099.34.
The average for the last 33 days would be 6,196,193,726.67.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 139 reports in 203 days of FY2010 averaging 6.88B$ per report, 4.71B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,005 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 19.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/21/2010 12,865,514,120,486.88 BHO (UP 2,238,637,071,573.80 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,955,685,116,975.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,718,350,087,171.98 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********

80,598,025,558.49 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4352938&mesg_id=4353018

[UpInArms]

15. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

81.384 +0.223 (+0.29%)

Opening Comment 04.22

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/opening_comment/2010-04-22-0441-Opening_Comment_04_22.html

Although most major currencies are trading relatively flat on the day, the Yen has ignored this pattern, with the single currency noticeably outperforming.
The relative strength has been tied to risk aversion and a renewed interest in the flight to safety trade, with ongoing concerns over the state of Greece, and Eurozone sovereign debt failing to go away. Also in Japan, Moodys has come out and downgraded Toyota to Aa2 with a negative outlook.

Interestingly enough, while the Australian Dollar is the weakest major currency, Kiwi has been holding up quite well, with comments from the country’s FinMin that the economy is recovering slightly more strongly than had been forecast, helping to prop. A slightly improved consumer confidence print has also not hurt the antipodean. The weaker new motor vehicle sales data out of Australia has not helped the Aussie’s cause, while an upbeat report from the IMF on Australia’s position as the furthest ahead of the pack in the global recovery, has also failed to generate any fresh bids. Elsewhere, the Swiss Franc has been getting some attention, particularly on the Eur/Chf cross, with talk of some decent Swiss central bank bids ahead of 1.4300. However this has failed to inspire and significant rallies, with the cross locked in some tight consolidation.

Looking ahead, the Swiss trade balance is due at 6:15GMT, followed by German (55.2 and 60.1 expected) and Eurozone (54.4 and 56.7 expected) services and manufacturing PMIs at 7:30GMT and 8:00GMT respectively. A flurry of UK data is then out at 8:30GMT, in the form of public sector net borrowing (24.0B expected), public finances (31.3B expected), mortgage approvals (50k expected), money supply, and retail sales (0.5% expected). The Eurozone government to debt GDP ratio (78.5% expected) is out at 9:00GMT, along with the Swiss ZEW, while UK CBI industrial trends cap things off at 10:00GMT. US equity futures and commodities are both tracking lower on the day.

...more...

Daily Sound Bites 04.22

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-04-22-1204-Daily_Sound_Bites_04_22.html



...more...

[TalkingDog]

19. The Economist compares Tea Persons to Grampa Simpson....

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2010/04/tea_party_and_george_bush

The red meat:

But it isn't supported by fact. Despite what Mr Romney and Mr Goldberg tell themselves, the base never punished Bush for his ideological failures. The Tea Partiers, 57% of them, still love them some unfunded-entitlement-spending, TARP-bail-outing, compassionate Bush. They just don't like Barack Obama. I used to think that the Tea Party consisted of well-meaning budget hawks, peppered, like all movements, with crazies who own markers.

[Joe Chi Minh]

22. Is this one of the funniest articles you've ever read, or what?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/199342-did-a-clever-sec-bait-goldman-sachs-into-compounding-its-legal-problems?source=email

[Robbien]

31. The article itself is not so funny, but the 'about the author' made me smile

I am a convicted felon . . . I committed my crimes, simply because I could.

If it weren't for the efforts of the FBI, SEC, Postal Inspector's Office, US Attorney's Office, and class action plaintiff's lawyers who investigated, prosecuted, and sued me, I would still be the criminal CFO of Crazy Eddie today.

. . . My research on Goldman Sachs is a freebie for securities regulators and the public in order to help me get into heaven, though I doubt that I will ever get there anyway. I personally believe that some people at Goldman Sachs may end up joining me in hell.




Hope the guy is right about Goldman's foot in mouth moment.

[Joe Chi Minh]

39. I did a double-take on that when I first read it! He seems to have first-hand knowledge

in such matters. I trust him!

[DoBotherMe]

28. K&R Happy Earth Day!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8193616

Dana ; )

[Demeter]

32. Federal Reserve Made $47.4 Billion in 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/22/business/economy/22fed.html

The Federal Reserve transferred $47.4 billion, a record sum, to the Treasury Department last year, a result of the central bank’s actions to support the fragile housing market.

The transfer to the public coffers rose roughly 50 percent, or $15.7 billion, from $31.7 billion transferred in 2008, the Fed announced on Wednesday in releasing its annual financial statements, which were audited by Deloitte.

“Central banking is a great business,” joked Vincent R. Reinhart, a former director of monetary affairs at the Fed.

Unlike private banks, the Fed does not exist for the purpose of making a profit, though it inevitably does so. Historically, it paid no interest on the currency and bank reserves that represent its liabilities, while it made interest on the Treasury securities that make up its assets.

The Fed’s profitability increased as an incidental result of the financial turmoil that began in 2007.

To hold down long-term interest rates and support the housing market, the Fed greatly increased its holdings of Treasury securities and acquired mortgage-backed securities and debts owed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies that are now controlled by the government. The Fed made $20.4 billion in interest on those mortgage-related securities and debt holdings in 2009.

In addition, the Fed profited as troubled banks turned to its discount window and other emergency lending programs.

The Fed paid for the assets by creating reserves and, although it began paying interest, currently 0.25 percent, on those reserves in October 2008, the payments are only a small drag on the central bank’s profitability.

Those seeking to use the Fed to help cover the nation’s steep deficits and debts, however, will inevitably be disappointed.

“The Fed can only play this game as long as the public is willing to hold its liabilities,” said Mr. Reinhart, now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative research organization. “If it tried to increase its balance sheet tenfold, say, the public would be unwilling to hold those reserves. You’d get dollar depreciation and inflation.”

As it is, the Fed’s balance sheet is now roughly $2.3 trillion, about 2.5 times its size before the crisis. Its chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, now faces a set of challenges as the Fed prepares to eventually tighten monetary policy and return its balance sheet to a more normal size.

All told, the Fed’s comprehensive income was $53.4 billion in 2009, a $17.9 billion increase from 2008. After deducting operating expenses, the Fed transferred $47.4 billion to the Treasury.

Along with financial statements for the Fed’s board of governors in Washington and the 12 Fed district banks, the Fed released details about the assets held by five limited liability companies that were created by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in response to the crisis.

Three of those companies, known as Maiden Lane I, II and III, were created to hold troubled assets, including mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, acquired as a result of the government-brokered sale of Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase in March 2008 and the takeover of the American International Group, the stricken insurance giant, that September.

The Fed expects to recover the full value of the loans made to those special entities and does not expect any loss to taxpayers from them, senior Fed officials said in a conference call.

The Fed spent $243.7 million on salaries for its roughly 2,200 employees in Washington in 2009. Those numbers could change substantially if Congress creates an independent Consumer Financial Protection Bureau within the Fed, as a Senate bill to overhaul financial regulations seeks to do.

The annual financial statements also showed that the Fed spent $479.3 million on currency printing last year. “In just the past 25 years, the value of Federal Reserve notes in circulation has grown from $180 billion to $890 billion, an increase of almost 400 percent,” Mr. Bernanke said at a news conference on Wednesday at the Treasury Department to unveil a new design, incorporating additional anticounterfeiting features, for the $100 note.

“And while in the past, most U.S. dollars were held domestically, today many of these notes circulate outside of our borders,” he added.

[Robbien]

38. Goldman whining that the SEC suit will "hurt America"

Lloyd Blankfein on Wednesday attacked the Securities & Exchange Commission’s fraud charges in telephone calls to clients as Goldman escalated its campaign to stem the damage to the bank’s reputation.

One person who received a call from the Goldman chief said he was told the regulator’s case against the bank was politically motivated and would ultimately “hurt America”….

“He was very aggressive,” said one person called by Mr Blankfein on Wednesday. “He feels that the government is out to kill them, that they are under attack and the whole thing is totally political.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a62b8a5c-4d9b-11df-9560-00144feab49a.html


Will hurt America's rich elite, which to Blankfein are the only people that count.



Yves over at Naked Capitalism is saying

Instead, Blankfein’s comments sound like those of a narcissist completely unhinged at the idea that he is being criticized. If this neurosis pervades the Goldman executive ranks (which we think is entirely possible, see our earlier discussion), that provides an indirect confirmation of the widespread perception that the firm is concerned only with what it can get away with, and is lacking in any moral compass.

The idea that an SEC’s enforcement action on a lone transaction is tantamount to a campaign to “kill” the firm is bizarre, and sounds an awful lot like Dick Fuld at his less than stellar moments. It suggests either hypersensitivity to bad press, or recognition of the possibility that the discovery in the SEC case will expose widespread predatory conduct (as we noted in an earlier post, the private suits against derivatives kingpin Bankers Trust similarly looked weak, but they did huge damage to the bank by exposing cynical, rapacious behavior towards clients).

While it is too early to tell, the SEC may have found Goldman’s underbelly.

[Demeter]

40. When You Are an Exposed Crook, You Are All Underbelly

indefensible, in fact.

Folks, Tom Lehrer is a tough act to follow. I need some suggestion for tomorrow's WEE. Any ideas, requests, demands, ultimatums?

I drove my new car--my father's Impala with 52K on it. I am calling it Moby.

Because it's a great white whale of a car, because it has been 20 years since I had a vehicle so unused--when the Kid who drove it up from Virginia was in diapers--because Mobius kind of describes my emotional state.

It has 6 cylinders, which is probably double what the Saturn is running on...and goes uphill on the highway, which the Saturn no longer can.

Think it's worth scrounging an engine for a 94 Saturn that's been through a war?

We need to get Click and Clack on the job!

[Tansy_Gold]

41. In honor of GM's paying off part of their loan, why not have a

week-end in honor of the American automobile?

[Demeter]

42. I Suppose There Are Enough Car Songs

especially Beach Boys...

[Tansy_Gold]

43. I'll help you with this one, Demeter

:evilgrin: