STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday April 26

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday April 26, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 23, 2010

Dow... 11,204.28 +69.99 (+0.62%)
Nasdaq... 2,530.15 +11.08 (+0.44%)
S&P 500... 1,217.28 +8.61 (+0.71%)
Gold future... 1,156 +1.90 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.81 +0.04 (+0.98%)
30-Year Bond 4.66 +0.02 (+0.41%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Oil above $85 on signs US economy improving

SINGAPORE – Oil prices climbed above $85 a barrel Monday in Asia as growing investor optimism about the U.S. economy boosted equity and commodity prices.

Benchmark crude for May delivery was up 44 cents to $85.56 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.42 to settle at $85.12 on Friday. ...

Despite growing corporate earnings, the unemployment rate remains high and U.S. crude demand hasn't yet recovered strongly.

In other Nymex trading in May contracts, heating oil rose 1.30 cents to $2.264 a gallon, and gasoline increased 1.24 cents to $2.366 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 5.0 cents to $4.307 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

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There is that stupid old notion again. Sentiment equates stock markets with the real economy. Just plain dumb.

[RandomThoughts]

3. Not plain dumb. A statement of hubris.

A comment that what is good for 99% does not matter.

Just what is good for 1%, according to naratives.

[ozymandius]

7. This is also a situation that involves lousy economic fundamentals.

Recessions abate when the prices of goods and services drop. That is not happening with oil climbing in anticipation of any recovery, in any sector and in any form. Recovery fruit will wither on the vine if prices rise, in other words. Speaking of fruit on the vine: food prices have dramatically increased across the country. That too will choke off any recovery efforts.

If oil is subject to grossly speculative price increases - then a short-term gain will be realized at the expense of any long-term and durable rejuvenation of the economy. As you say RandomThoughts: the 1% certainly do not care. It is an attitude that is symptomatic of the sociopathic tendencies inherent in the world of finance today.

[ozymandius]

4. Shortsighted to oppose bank tax, IMF warns

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Countries that weathered the global economic crisis with their financial systems relatively unscathed are being shortsighted by opposing a global bank levy, the IMF's chief said on Saturday.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn suggested a bank tax would be helpful in preparing for crises that could strike anywhere and indirectly criticized countries that might think they would never feel the brunt of a downturn.

He said that before the crisis it was likely that the United States, Britain and some European countries thought they could manage their way through safely, which proved to be incorrect because they were forced to fund massive bank bailouts.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100425/bs_nm/us_imf_bankers

[ozymandius]

5. Ex-SEC lawyer gets 8 years for pump-and-dump fraud

ALEXANDRIA, Va. – A former enforcement attorney for the Securities and Exchange Commission was sentenced Friday to eight years in prison for his role in a a series of multimillion dollar pump-and-dump stock fraud schemes.

Dallas-based attorney Phillip Offill Jr., 51, was convicted by a jury earlier this year on 10 counts of wire fraud and conspiracy. He testified that he was acting within the law, but the jury rejected his defense, and so too did U.S. District Judge Liam O'Grady.

Offill, who worked at the SEC for 15 years before taking a job at the Godwin Gruber law firm in Dallas, aided schemes that by conservative estimates cheated more than 1,500 investors out of at least $2.4 million. The fraudsters would pump up the value of dubious penny stocks and then sell the shares at inflated prices to unwitting buyers.

Eight other coconspirators have already been convicted and sentenced in a case that has been under investigation for more than three years. Most of the illegal transactions took place in 2004.

The eight-year term imposed on Offill was one of the most severe. Prosecutor Ed Power said the tougher sentence was deserved because Offill lied on the witness stand and because his status as a respected attorney helped provide cover for the fraud.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100423/ap_on_bi_ge/us_stock_scam_lawyer

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Are all these guys included in the 11 on the SMW front page?

If not, it needs updating! ;-)



Tansy Gold, hoping THAT number keeps going up

[Demeter]

21. A Second SEC Baddie!

I posted a report on the one who protected Bernie Madoff from the SEC for a decade, then went to work for him, on the Weekend thread.

8 years isn't nearly enough.

Wonder which years he was in the SEC....

[Demeter]

28. Sorry, My Error--This "Lawyer Enforcer" Protected Stanford, NOT Madoff

I wonder who was protecting Bernie?

[ozymandius]

6. Stocks Rise as Greek Debt Concerns Abate

Stocks climbed, led by the biggest gain in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average in seven weeks, and commodities rallied as economic reports pointed to faster growth and concerns about Greece’s debt abated. The yen weakened.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 1.6 percent to 127.25 and the Stoxx Euro 600 rose 1 percent to 270.14 as of 4 p.m. in Tokyo. The Nikkei jumped 2.3 percent, the most since March 5. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures gained 0.1 percent. The yen fell to 125.96 per euro in Tokyo from 125.73 yen in New York on April 23. Oil in New York rose 0.4 percent to $85.42 a barrel, extending a 1.7 percent advance from April 23. Copper climbed 1.2 percent and rubber gained 1.6 percent.

Investor sentiment improved after Greece moved toward securing a financial rescue package and a forecast for Toyota Motor Corp.’s results indicated it may post an unexpected operating profit versus an operating loss for the fiscal year. Sales of new U.S. homes surged 27 percent in March and orders for most durable goods climbed, reports on April 23 showed.

Greece’s Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said money will be available “rather soon” and his country wouldn’t restructure its debt. He was speaking to reporters in Washington yesterday as he negotiated a three-year loan plan with the International Monetary Fund and European governments.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-04-26/asian-stocks-commodities-rally-on-economic-recovery-greece-yen-weakens.html

[ozymandius]

16. Greece: Dead Man Walking?

Yves Smith:

I’m mystified as to the cheerleading in some circles on Greece. It is not clear that its €45 billion EU-IMF band-aid will be deployed (among other things, it faces a legal challenge in Germany) and even if it is, it falls well short of Greece’s anticipated needs beyond one year. More important, a successful deal does not mean the rescue will prevent default. The austerity program for Greece (in terms of reduction of fiscal deficit) has no successful precedents, and street protests indicate that the populace is not on board. And Ed Harrison sees eerie parallels to the rescue of CreditAnstalt, which kicked off more bank runs, ultimately precipitating the second leg down of the Great Depression.

While stock markets are perking up in Asia, credit default swap spread for the other Club Med countries rose on Friday, signaling that investors are worried about the risk of contagion. And in the UK, several savvy investors told me they expect a 20% pound depreciation once the election is over. Europe is clearly on a deflationary path.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/greece-dead-man-walking.html

Additional links are provided, echoing sentiments at other respectable sites.

[ozymandius]

8. Financial Overhaul Bill Faces Showdown in Senate Vote

The Senate is set to hold a test vote today on a Democratic plan to overhaul regulation of Wall Street, a showdown with political risks for both sides.

Democrats, who control the Senate with a 59-41 majority, need the support of at least one Republican to get the 60 votes required to open debate on the bill. While lead negotiators said yesterday they were moving closer to a compromise, there was no sign that any of the Republicans would break ranks in time for the procedural vote expected at 5 p.m. in Washington.

Democrats are seeking to advance legislation, sought by President Barack Obama, to redesign rules governing the financial services industry in response to the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. The measure is aimed at averting a repeat of the $700 billion in taxpayer-funded aid to firms including Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp.

The final bill will include Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Blanche Lincoln’s provision that would force lenders to wall off their swaps trading desks from their commercial banks, according to a Democratic Senate aide briefed on the talks.

Lincoln, an Arkansas Democrat, won committee approval on April 21 for a measure that would bar swaps dealers from bank privileges such as access to the Federal Reserve’s discount lending window, emergency liquidity functions and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s deposit guarantee.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-04-26/obama-s-financial-services-overhaul-bill-faces-senate-showdown-vote-today.html

[ozymandius]

9. Goldman Sachs E-mails Spur Democrats to Push Wall Street Rules

Democratic Senator Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and Senator Sherrod Brown, also a Democrat on the panel, said yesterday the e-mails help show why rules such as the Volcker rule are needed. Obama administration adviser Austan Goolsbee called the proposal to end trading for a bank’s own account “highly relevant” to ending conflicts of interest.

Lawmakers are using the e-mails to bolster support for rules that could crimp earnings at Goldman Sachs, the most profitable firm in Wall Street history, 10 days after it was sued for fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Volcker rule, named for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, now an adviser to President Barack Obama, is included in Dodd’s financial-rules overhaul, which faces a test vote in the Senate today. The Democrats need at least one Republican vote to open the debate.

One e-mail provided by Levin shows Blankfein telling colleagues on Nov. 18, 2007, that the firm was making more money from its so-called short bets on mortgages than it lost on its investments related to home loans.

“Of course we didn’t dodge the mortgage mess,” Blankfein wrote in an e-mail dated Nov. 18, 2007, that was among eight pages of documents made public by Levin’s panel. “We lost money, then made more than we lost because of shorts. Also, it’s not over, so who knows how it will turn out ultimately.”

Some e-mails indicate that selling securities to customers was part of the firm’s effort to get rid of its mortgage risk and take a negative stance on the market.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-04-26/goldman-sachs-e-mails-spur-democrats-to-push-efforts-to-reform-wall-street.html

[ozymandius]

10. Deal Near on Derivatives

WASHINGTON—Democrats took a step toward their goal of overhauling financial regulation, reaching a tentative deal to set restrictions on trading in exotic financial instruments known as derivatives.

Among the considerations still in the balance: A big provision being sought by Warren Buffett in recent weeks. A key Senate committee had changed its proposed overhaul of derivatives regulation after lobbying by Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., potentially helping the famed investor avoid a financial hit, congressional aides say.

The provision, sought by Berkshire and pushed by Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson in the Senate Agriculture Committee, would largely exempt existing derivatives contracts from the proposed rules. Previously, the legislation could have allowed regulators to require that companies such as Nebraska-based Berkshire put aside large sums to cover potential losses. The change thus would aid Berkshire, which has a $63 billion derivatives portfolio, according to Barclays Capital.

Mr. Buffett's push is especially notable because he has warned of the potential dangers of derivatives, famously branding them "financial weapons of mass destruction."

The battle over the provision shows how lobbying by businesses and lawmakers to insert just a few words into a complex bill can have a major impact on the country's biggest companies.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703441404575206252252365076.html?mod=WSJINDIA_hpp_sections_business

[Demeter]

22. Buffett is Just as Crooked, Just Not as Greedy or Stupid

This is a man who can plan, defer gratification, and prepare alternate plans.

Even more dangerous in the long run?

[Tansy_Gold]

26. My sentiments exactly.

Buffett protects Buffett first, anyone else long, long, long after he's got his.


How much is enough, Mr. Buffett? How much more do you need? Shall I send you my $11.22 in loose change? Do you need it, too.

You're an asshole, Mr. Buffett. You make nothing, you neither spin nor sow, yet you suck the wealth from those who do and then you preach your might righteousness about taxes. How much did you donate, Mr. Buffett? And how much will you take with you when you go to your great reward?

Fuck you, Warren Buffett. ESAD.



Tansy Gold

[AnneD]

32. I have always had a high opinion of Buffet....

He has generally show wise investment choices and management. I am not ready to throw the baby out with the bath water-but I am very disappointed with Warren Buffet. He seems to be gaming things and that is a no-no.

I am a sadder but wiser investor.

[Roland99]

11. I hope Obama/Dodd hold true to this stance for once and tell the Greedy Old Pricks to stick it

[ozymandius]

12. BANKS: Deposits Guaranteed (flashback to 1933)

From Time Magazine about the horribly evil practice of (gasp!) insuring deposits:

Through the great banking houses of Manhattan last week ran wild-eyed alarm. Big bankers stared at one another in anger and astonishment. A bill just passed by both houses of Congress would rivet upon their institutions what they considered a monstrous system of guaranteeing bank deposits. Such a system, they felt, would not only rob them of their pride of profession but would reduce all U. S. banking to its lowest level. They saw their deposits which they had spent a lifetime to build up and protect with their good names confiscated by the Government to pay for the mistakes and dishonesty of every smalltown bankster.

The deposit guarantee bill was not part of President Roosevelt's legislative program. He was. in fact, lukewarm to it. Secretary of the Treasury Woodin had frowned on many of its features. One of its authors was Virginia's Carter Glass. But Senator Glass had accepted the guarantee clause only as the cheapest and safest price he had to pay to the radical majority of Congress for passing the rest of his cherished bank reforms. The bill's other author was Alabama's Henry Bascom Steagall, smalltown lawyer and chairman of the House Banking & Currency Committee who spoke for the "little bank" crowd. The measure went through the House 262-to-19 and not one "nay" was raised against it in the Senate. Minor differences in the two drafts were being composed in conference.

Despite this evil-smelling State record Congress was determined to clamp a similar system down on all Federal Reserve member banks, make it optional with nonmember State banks. It was this arbitrary method of forcing big banks to stand sponsor for little banks that outraged Manhattan bankers. Big State banks in New York talked covertly of seceding from the Federal Reserve System rather than submit to such a levy. Even big national banks might exchange their Federal charters for State charters to escape from the Reserve. Such a withdrawal on a large scale might well wreck the whole Federal Reserve System and end an era in central bank history. On the other hand friends of the deposit guarantee loudly claimed that it would tend to drive all nonmember State banks into the Federal Reserve and create one national system, as no bank could do business outside the Government's magic circle of deposit insurance.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,745617-1,00.html#ixzz0mCVOn8gO

[ozymandius]

13. Cheers for Ritholtz and a wager...

Wanna Bet?

Barry asserts the case against Goldman, far from weak, is very strong. “Based upon what is in the complaint, parts of the case are a slam dunk. The claim (by Fabrice Tourre, a former Goldman VP pushing the deal) that Paulson & Co. was long $200 million when it actually was short is a material misrepresentation — that’s Rule 10b-5, and it’s a no-brainer. The rest is gravy.”

He points out, too, that the complaint contains only the bare minimum the prosecutor, who he thinks is first-rate, has to reveal to file his complaint. “What you don’t see,” he explains, is all the e-mails, depositions, interrogations, phone taps and the like — “the arsenal of additional evidence” — that only the government knows about.

Nor does he buy the idea, commonly bruited about, that this is a complex case. Parts of it, he says, are a little more sophisticated than others, but what it boils down to in Barry’s view, is a simple case of fraudulent misrepresentation. The most difficult part of the case is likely to turn on just what is a “material omission.” Whether Paulson’s involvement in selecting mortgages was or not material is an issue of fact for a jury to determine. “But complex? Not even close.”

Barry is willing, moreover, to put his money where his mouth is, as evidenced by his offer at the bottom of his analysis: “I have $1,000 against any and all comers that Goldman Sachs does not win — they settle or lose in court. Any takers? My money is already in escrow — waiting for yours to join it. Winnings go to the charity of the winner’s choice.”

If you cannot access the full Barron's story then Ritholtz has posted a thicker excerpt at his site, The Big Picture.

[Demeter]

23. I've got THAT on the Weekend, Too!

It's a honey of a rant:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x531555#531618

[Change Happens]

14. Help me out about tonight's vote on FinReg?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8216267

[ozymandius]

15. reply posted

'If' is not a question - but 'when' is a certainty regarding the implementation of financial reform. The shape if this reform package will also be in flux as the corporate whores attempt to insert language that will blunt anything unequivocally forceful.

[Change Happens]

17. Common sense says more reform = more honest "clean" markets = more confidence in the markets

Then the retail investor jumps back in, no?

CNBC keeps pushing the idea that more reform means lower markets...etc.

[DemReadingDU]

18. That's how I think

However, the financial industry doesn't want reform, they like things unregulated so they can make gazillions of profits.

[Festivito]

19. Debt: 04/22/2010 12,872,601,270,864.44 (UP 7,087,150,377.56) (Thu)

(Down a goodly amount. Have a goodly kind of day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,354,949,497,158.86 + 4,517,651,773,705.58
DOWN 15,686,359,446.12 + UP 22,773,509,823.68

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,121,470 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,642.53.
A family of three owes $124,927.6. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 8,717,868,084.55.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,974,294,467.64.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,749,317,226.75.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 140 reports in 204 days of FY2010 averaging 6.88B$ per report, 4.72B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,004 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 19.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/22/2010 12,872,601,270,864.44 BHO (UP 2,245,724,221,951.36 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,962,772,267,352.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,722,607,243,057.53 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -

60,078,839,061.92 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4354213&mesg_id=4354240

[Festivito]

31. Debt: 04/23/2010 12,877,195,922,374.91 (UP 4,594,651,510.47) (Fri)

(Down a small amount. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,354,793,450,103.36 + 4,522,402,472,271.55
DOWN 156,047,055.50 + UP 4,750,698,565.97

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,128,116 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,656.5.
A family of three owes $124,969.51. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 8,595,839,236.90.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,876,671,389.52.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,654,843,280.18.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 141 reports in 205 days of FY2010 averaging 6.86B$ per report, 4.72B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,003 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 19.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/23/2010 12,877,195,922,374.91 BHO (UP 2,250,318,873,461.83 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,967,366,918,863.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,722,385,001,878.38 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---

60,705,890,141.95 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4357024&mesg_id=4357071

[DemReadingDU]

24. CNN - Geithner: "I Never Had A Real Job"

4/25/10 CNN - Geithner: "I Never Had A Real Job"
appx 1 minute video

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/04/25/geithner_i_never_had_a_real_job.html

[Hugin]

25. Well, now... He can come on down and help me out.

Pay is good. I'll usually spring for lunch. Plenty of fresh air and sunshine.

Of course, since he'd just be starting out... and doesn't have a shovel operator permit. I've have to start him
out hoisting buckets.

[Tansy_Gold]

27. Buckets of what?

:evilgrin:

[Demeter]

29. A Still Moment (James Howard Kunstler)

http://worldnewstrust.com/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&view=items&cid=134:commentary-wnt-reports&id=7672:a-still-moment-james-howard-kunstler

...The big mystery for the moment is how come a few good men of stature in important places have not stepped forward to say the right thing or do the right deed. How come no U.S. congressperson challenged the knavish behavior of Republicans who condone malicious idiocy that they know to be false like the so-called "birther" activity. How come no putative "progressive" has called the Democrats on their disingenuous failure to call illegal immigrants what they are. How come no state attorney general has filed charges against TBTF bank misconduct even if the U.S. attorney general lies in state over at the U.S. Justice Department. How come no political figure of any stripe has called for the resignation of Summers, Rubin, Gensler and other Goldman Sachs "sleepers" infesting high levels of government. How come Dylan Ratigan is the only visible figure in any major newsroom willing to identify the precise nature of the meta-swindle...

[Demeter]

30. Who Is Barack Obama?

I am beginning to suspect he is the Bobblehead figurine on the back deck of a car, nodding in agreement to everyone passing by.

The anti-FDR, if you will.