STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday April 30

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday April 30, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 29, 2010

Dow... 11,167.32 +122.05 (+1.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,511.92 +40.19 (+1.60%)
S&P 500... 1,206.78 +15.42 (+1.28%)
Gold future... 1,173 +4.60 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.72 -0.04 (-1.09%)
30-Year Bond 4.59 -0.04 (-0.76%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 GDP-Adv. Q1
Briefing.com 1.8%
Consensus 3.3%
Prior 5.6%

08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q1
Briefing.com 0.9%
Consensus 1.0%
Prior 0.5%

08:30 Employment Cost Index Q1
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 0.4%

09:45 Chicago PMI Apr
Briefing.com 59.5
Consensus 59.9
Prior 58.8

09:55 Mich Sentiment Apr
Briefing.com 72.0
Consensus 71.0
Prior 69.5

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

45. U.S. first-quarter GDP rises 3.2% as expected

U.S. 1Q business structures investments down 14%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 1Q real disposable incomes flat
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. GDP up 2.5% in past year
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. inventories grow first time in two years
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 1Q business capital goods investment up 13.4%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 1Q consumer spending rises 3.6%, 3-year high
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. first-quarter final domestic sales rise 2.2%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. first-quarter GDP rises 3.2% as expected
8:30 a.m. Today

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-1q-gdp-rises-32-as-consumers-lead-the-way-2010-04-30

U.S. consumer spending rose at the fastest rate in three years in the first quarter, powering the economy to a 3.2% growth rate, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. The 3.2% increase in real seasonally adjusted gross domestic product was exactly as expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. In the first quarter, private domestic demand was the main engine of growth. Consumer spending rose at a 3.6% annual rate, while business investments in equipment and software increased at 13.4% pace. Final sales to domestic purchasers increased at a 2.2% rate, up from 1.4% in the fourth quarter.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises above $86 on signs of US economic growth

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices rose Friday in Asia, shooting above $86 a barrel amid signs the U.S. economy is strengthening.

Crude has traded between $87 and $81 this month as traders weighed an improving global economy against stubbornly high U.S. oil inventories, a sign demand hasn't followed an overall U.S. economic recovery.

This week, more positive economic news from the U.S. helped boost investor optimism. Companies such as Motorola, Time Warner Cable and Starwood Hotels & Resorts reported earnings Thursday that topped forecasts, and the Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week.

Crude was also boosted by rising stock markets, which oil traders look to as a measure of overall investor sentiment. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.1 percent Thursday while most equity markets in Asia gained Friday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

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This dynamic itself, in bold, will make very certain that no recovery will take hold. As long as speculators create conditions that force consumer prices higher - the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street will widen.

[ozymandius]

7. Oil Spill May Alter Obama's Drilling Expansion Plans

Oil spilling from a damaged BP Plc well in the Gulf of Mexico may complicate President Barack Obama’s five-year plan to open new offshore tracts to energy exploration.

The leak, which is five times bigger than previously estimated, prompted Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal to declare a state of emergency, and led Senator Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat, to ask Obama to indefinitely suspend plans to expand offshore drilling for oil and natural gas.

Administration officials escalated the federal response, declaring the spill of “national significance,” announcing immediate inspections of all deep-water drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and convening at the Department of Interior a meeting between government agencies and representatives from more than a dozen companies including BP, Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Halliburton Co.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, who also met with BP officials at their command center in Houston yesterday, urged the companies and technical experts “to get all hands on deck” to deal with the spill, a statement from the department said.

The government response involves the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Commerce and Interior. Obama has directed the military to consult with BP on whether the Pentagon has technology better than that available in the private sector.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-04-30/oil-spill-may-alter-obama-s-drilling-expansion-plans.html

[Demeter]

9. What Would It Take To Change His Mind About Nuclear Power?

Three Mile Island? Chernobyl? Ashland? Jane Fonda?

[Dr.Phool]

10. Probably a meltdown.

But, if Jane Fonda rubbed all over me like a cat, like she did to Stephen Colbert, she could change my mind on just about anything!

[Demeter]

12. Good Morning Doc!

Shame on you! You have a puppy to do that!

[ozymandius]

14. You're so naughty. Remember: this is a "family thread".

Sure, we say things from time to time about certain individuals -ahem- "having sexual relations with themselves" but we must be respectful. Milquetoast types come here all the time.

[Dr.Phool]

18. Jane was trying to get Colbert to remove her from his "On Notice" board.

I don't know many 30 year-olds who could be as seductive as that 70-something year old.

If they had sent her to Hanoi to negotiate, the war would have ended 5 years earlier.

[ozymandius]

23. Ha! How true!

Ho Chi Minh would have been eating out of her hand.

[AnneD]

77. Afternoon Marketeers..........

Enough of this afternoon delight theme, honestly, we have serious topics to discuss, boys!....:evilgrin:

Actually, I am old enough to be flattered when a man compliments me. When I was younger, compliments were frequent and easy and almost expected. But as I have gotten older, I have to do more 'upkeep'. I feel that the compliments seem more genuine as folks are surprised when I tell them my age. Besides I am in the youth of my old age.

About the oil slick. If anything good comes of it, Drill baby drill will not be a cheap and easy answer to our energy problems. We get far more use from fishing than drilling. We can synthesize many things, but we haven"t figured out how to make flounder or red fish. We had been having problems before this. An Unusually large number of Kemp Ridley sea turtles have been washing ashore dead. This is the critical nesting season.

More good news-the government was Johnny on the spot. Coordination is a bit lacking but there was a rapid response. Our crude here is light which is to our advantage. The fact that our estuaries are delicate nurseries is a bad thing. We have been having a successful campaign to stop folks from pouring oil, fertilizers, and other contaminants into the drainage system because the run off damages the estuaries.

If we have learned anything from Hurricane Ike-nature can recover, but we best not test the limits.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Demeter]

22. Russia offers Kiev nuclear power deal

Russia’s prime minister made what he described as a “large-scale offer” late on Monday to Ukraine, urging both countries to merge their vast nuclear power generation businesses, and hinting that together they could benefit from joint electricity exports to foreign markets.
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/IOCBMM/A7K8WL/PNGIU/9ZIKNV/UUTLPX/FW/t

IS THIS WHAT IS DRIVING OBAMA'S SUICIDE PLAN?

[fasttense]

36. Spill baby Spill. n/t

[Demeter]

13. Good Morning Ozy!

Makes me want to cry. Here I am, new car and empty tank...

The pain in my hip is easing, now that I don't have to crawl into the low-slung Saturn anymore. Age is a horrible thing.

[ozymandius]

17. Good morning, Demeter.

:donut: :donut: :donut: I know the feeling: hip pain and empty tank pain. My car is running on fumes. We had to pay taxes this year. That drained our account significantly. Thank goodness today is payday and I can catch up on expenses like gasoline.

I'm glad to hear that you're feeling better with the new car.

[proudohioan]

42. "This dynamic itself, in bold......"

Thank you for bringing this out in the open; I feel that as long as we keep ignoring the gorilla in the room, we will never have a true "recovery". And there are a lot of gorilla's in the room, IMO.

T.

edit on spelling.

[ozymandius]

3. Consumer spending likely drove growth in Q1

The fresh picture of the nation's economic health that the Commerce Department will release Friday is expected to provide the strongest evidence yet that the economy is strengthening.

Consumers, the drivers of overall economic activity, finally seem to be spending more. To be sure, shoppers aren't spending with the kind of abandon that usually sparks the early stages of economic recoveries. But they're spending enough to keep the economy expanding.

The economy grew at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the January-to-March quarter, according to Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. It would mark the third straight quarterly gain as the United States heals from the longest recession since the 1930s.

A rebound in consumer spending is expected to have contributed significantly to the first-quarter growth. Consumers likely boosted spending on cars, household appliances and home furnishings, as well as clothing, sporting goods, books and music. Early tax refunds, federal rebates for energy-efficient appliances, and discounts and promotions on autos and other goods helped sales, analysts say.

Home furnishings sales rose as home buyers take advantage of a government tax credit that expires at the end of this month.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100430/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

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Okay. Call me a the rain maker in the parade if you want. Every single one of these expenditures can be tied directly to stimulus incentives. Durable goods always rise on the sale of new homes. Tax season, with an additional $800 for married couples, provided gravy for millions more. And a mere 162k jobs being created in March is nearly background noise compared to the weekly initial unemployment claims that routinely approach 450k. If there were serious initiatives aimed at sustaining economic growth, we would see rampant speculation in energy markets being addressed. That in itself would have huge tangential and compounded benefits for the average consumer.

[ozymandius]

8. Chicago Fed CFNAI Update

This is from Ritholtz's place. The CFNAI has been mentioned a few times here, through Ritholtz's account, as the best economic indicator most people have never heard of. There are five main categories to this index. Each category breaks down into many smaller gauges, totaling more than seventy overall. In my opinion - it is the best damn diagnostic tool to examine the health of our national economy.

From The Big Picture:

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) — the best economic indicator you’ve never heard of — printed this morning.

The folks at the Chicago Fed say:

Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so the index’s three-month moving average,the CFNAI-MA3, provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth.

A CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 following a period of economic contraction indicates an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended. A CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20 following a period of economic contraction indicates a significant likelihood that a recession has ended.

The 3MA moved above -0.70 in September of last year, then moved back below momentarily, and has been above since November. A print at or above +0.20 still seems a bit distant.

From the release:

Led by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to –0.07 in March, up from –0.44 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions in March, while the consumption and housing category made the lone negative contribution.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.18 in March from –0.31 in February. March’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity, while still below average, continues to improve. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 indicates subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

While the improvement is certainly welcome, I would caution that the Consumption and Housing sub-component remains mired in negative territory...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/chicago-fed-cfnai-update/

[dixiegrrrrl]

53. You are correct.

Denninger was pointing that out this week.

[AnneD]

80. OK, OK....

I confess to buying a dress, pants suit, 3 shirts (2 on sale), and 2 sweater jackets (on sale), and a purse (on sale), 3 bras and my first pair of spanx (love em).

Oh, and I bought a beautiful silver charm bracelet for my daughter on her 20th birthday (cost 2x what my wardrobe cost).

What made this thrift monger penny pincher spend like there was no tomorrow? I have been trying to lose weight since Dec. Nothing like a health scare to set you right. I have lost almost 25 lbs and those pins holding up my pants were really starting to look tacky.

My daughter's charm bracelet.... I got a charm for the key moments in her life:2 conjoined hearts for her birth, a snowflake for our move to Cloudcroft, a volley ball, ballet slipper, etc. I sent it to her with a note of explaniation-but I told her I wanted her to look carefully and tell me if she could figure it out. She was quiet for a moment then said...."it's my life Mom, it's my life."

"That's right," I told her, "and only you can wear it. It's not finished-I will buy a graduation and 21st birthday charm-after that childhood is over and you will make your way in the world."

Definently ranks as one of the best gifts I ever gave her. It is in solid silver and by James Avery. I think I may have single handedly held up the economy last month, but it was worth it.

[ozymandius]

4. Global stocks rise amid Greek bailout hopes

Helping sentiment was an overnight rise in the U.S., where stocks rallied after a series of upbeat earnings reports and a reading on unemployment that suggested layoffs might be slowing. The news gave investors reason to hope a rebound in the world's largest economy, a key Asian export market, was sustainable.

At the same time, investors seemed less agitated about Europe's debt problems. Thursday brought reassurances from European leaders they were working quickly to approve a bailout for Greece so it can make good on its debt payments, one of which comes due in just several weeks.

Europe added to its gains in early trade, with Britain's FTSE 100 rising 0.4 percent, Germany's DAX climbing 0.7 percent France's CAC-40 little changed. Wall Street futures pointed to a stronger open in the U.S.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average was up 132.61 points, or 1.2 percent, at 11,057.40.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.6 percent to 21,106.48 and South Korea's main benchmark added 0.8 percent to 1,741.56

Elsewhere, Australia's market rose 0.5 percent, India's Sensex was up 0.5 percent and Shanghai's index gained 0.1 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100430/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

5. Workers march on Wall Street, protest big banks

NEW YORK – Thousands of workers and union leaders marched on Wall Street on Thursday to express their anger over lost jobs, the taxpayer-funded bailout of financial institutions and questionable lending practices by big banks.

The rally was organized by the AFL-CIO and an association of community groups. It included a diverse mixture of union workers, activists, the unemployed, and homeowners threatened by foreclosure.

The protesters, carrying signs saying "Wall Street Overdrafted Our Economy" and "Reclaim America," rallied at City Hall Park, then marched down to the Merrill Lynch Bull statue demanding good jobs and accountability from banks.

A half-hour later, they were calmly escorted outside by officers, who remained expressionless as the protesters chanted, "The police need a raise."

They then walked a few blocks up the avenue and crowded into the lobby of the Seagram Building, where Wells Fargo and Wachovia, the bank it merged with in 2008, have offices.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100430/ap_on_re_us/us_wall_street_protest

[DemReadingDU]

49. Dylan Ratigan's show was broadcast at the protests

First video in a series of 5. Each video will automatically play after the one playing ends.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31510813/ns/msnbc_tv-the_dylan_ratigan_show#36859672

[ozymandius]

6. Goldman Under Scrutiny of Prosecutors Examining SEC Suit

Federal prosecutors in New York are investigating transactions by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., accused of misleading investors by U.S. securities regulators, to determine whether to pursue a criminal fraud case, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The federal review, which lawyers say is common in such a high-profile case, is being done by the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, said the people, who weren’t authorized to comment and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil lawsuit against Goldman Sachs on April 16 alleging fraud tied to collateralized debt obligations that contributed to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The burden of proof in a criminal case would be higher than in the SEC’s civil case. Criminal allegations have to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt.

“In order to proceed criminally in a case, you need to have very clear evidence of lying, cheating and stealing,” said Jensen, a former deputy chief of the criminal division of the U.S. attorney’s office in the Southern District of New York who served on that office’s securities fraud task force.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-04-29/goldman-under-scrutiny-of-u-s-prosecutors-examining-sec-suit.html

[Demeter]

11. AP's Take: Feds open criminal probe of Goldman

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100430/ap_on_bi_ge/us_goldman_sachs_probe

Stepping up the pressure on Goldman Sachs two days after its executives were grilled and publicly rebuked by lawmakers, the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation of the Wall Street powerhouse over mortgage securities deals it arranged.

The criminal inquiry follows civil fraud charges filed by the government against Goldman two weeks ago and as Congress pushes toward enacting sweeping legislation aimed at preventing another near-meltdown of the financial system.

The investigation by the U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan stems from a criminal referral by the Securities and Exchange Commission, a knowledgeable person said Thursday. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the inquiry is in a preliminary phase....



Word of the Justice Department action came a day after a group of 62 House lawmakers, including Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers, D-Mich., asked Justice to conduct a criminal probe of Goldman. "On the face of the SEC filing, criminal fraud on a historic scale seems to have occurred in this instance," the lawmakers, mostly Democrats, said in a letter to Attorney General Eric Holder...


---------------------------------------------------------------



Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein testily told the investigative subcommittee that clients who bought the subprime mortgage securities from the firm in 2006 and 2007 came looking for risk "and that's what they got." Blankfein said the company didn't bet against its clients — and can't survive without their trust. He repeated the company's assertion that it lost $1.2 billion in the residential mortgage meltdown in 2007 and 2008. He also argued that Goldman wasn't making an aggressive negative bet — or short — on the mortgage market's slide.

In addition to the $2 billion so-called collateralized debt obligation that is the focus of the SEC's charges against Goldman, the subcommittee analyzed five other such transactions, totaling around $4.5 billion. All told, they formed a "Goldman Sachs conveyor belt," the panel said, that dumped toxic mortgage securities into the bloodstream of the financial system....

-----------------------------------------------------------------

MAY I ADD HOW WELCOME AND GRATIFYING IT IS TO READ SOMETHING THAT SOUNDS LIKE ACTUAL REPORTING! WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT IN DECADES!

[Demeter]

39. Goldman releases internal paper trail

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51bd439c-5099-11df-bc86-00144feab49a.html

Goldman Sachs released internal documents over the weekend that it said demonstrated that its subprime mortgage trading reflected prudent risk management rather than speculation.

Days before Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive, is due to appear before the Senate, the embattled bank said it did not “consistently or significantly short” the market for subprime mortgage securities, and any negative positions it had were intended to counterbalance long exposures.

The material, consisting largely of internal e-mail traffic, is meant to refute allegations by a Senate investigation committee, which claimed on Saturday that Goldman had made big profits betting against the mortgage market, which subsequently crashed....

[Ghost Dog]

50. S&P downgrades Goldman Sachs to sell (& Global Markets fall)

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Analysts at Standard & Poor's on Friday downgraded shares of Goldman Sachs (GS 148.32, -11.92, -7.44%) to sell from hold and trimmed their price target for Wall Street's most profitable investment bank to $140 from $180. The rating agency cited a Wall Street Journal report that said the company is now the target of a federal criminal probe into its mortgage dealings as the reason for the downgrade. "Though traditionally difficult to prove, we think the risk of a formal securities fraud charge, on top of the SEC fraud charge and pending legislation to reshape the financial industry, further muddies Goldman's outlook," S&P analysts wrote to clients Friday morning. Goldman Sachs shares fell 6.8% in early trade.

/. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-downgrades-goldman-sachs-to-sell-2010-04-30?siteid=yhoof2

[Demeter]

15. Another Massive Layoff

God Shuts Down Andromeda Galaxy

http://www.theonion.com/articles/god-shuts-down-andromeda-galaxy,17335/

INNER DISK, ANDROMEDA GALAXY—Thanking the spiral-shaped celestial body for its 6.8 billion years of tireless service, Our Lord and Divine Creator announced Thursday His "very difficult decision" to close down the Andromeda galaxy for good. "Nobody ever wants to have to do something like this, but operating Andromeda on a daily basis has grown impractical and I can't in good conscience keep it going," God said of the incomprehensibly massive nebula, which is home to more than 1 trillion stars and an untold number of planetary objects. "So much has changed since I brought it into being, and to be honest, it's just not working out the way I'd hoped." A spokesman for the Supreme Being issued an apology to Andromeda's 750 quadrillion resident life-forms, who as of midnight Eastern Time on May 15 will cease to exist.

[Po_d Mainiac]

43. A galactic mis-interpretation?

Actually Andromeda signifies Sarah Phalin who catches up with the horse (Pegasus). Butt ends up merging (literally) with the neighboring constellation via the "Hershey Way"

All those life forms are safe, for the time being. They will just have to get used to hanging their hats in the renamed "Pegasus Galaxy." This is just a test run for when the Pegasus Galaxy collides with the Milky Way.

:evilgrin:

[Demeter]

16. OVER THE SOUTH POLE

To Add to the otherworldly perspective:

Night has fallen over the South Pole, and the hardy scientists who are "wintering over" there are enjoying a spectacular sky show. "For one thing, we are now seeing auroras," reports J. Dana Hrubes, leader of the South Pole Telescope Station...."Polar orbiting satellites all cross at the poles, so our skies get very crowded." Indeed, he says, it can be hard to photograph auroras without catching a satellite in the exposure.

More than a hundred satellites pass over Earth's poles on a daily basis. Polar orbits are widely used for military reconnaisance, Earth science, and weather monitoring--but the most common type of polar satellite is the Iridium. Sixty-six of the comsats swarm around Earth, providing voice and data coverage to satellite phones and pagers over the planet's entire surface.

The South Pole turns out to be a great place to observe Iridium flares. "We see them all the time," says Hrubes.

For photo links and more, see:

http://spaceweather.com/

[Demeter]

19. Greece agrees €24bn austerity package

Greece has agreed the outline of a €24bn austerity package, including a three-year wage freeze for public sector workers, in return for a multibillion-euro loan from the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund, according to people familiar with the talks.
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/EB8122/6V42ND/EKRAI/XT24BW/UUT6K4/MQ/t

BEWARE OF GREEKS BEARING GRUDGES, I ALWAYS SAY...

[Demeter]

25. The cracks spread and widen

NICE PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF GREEK FALLOUT, EURO SHAKINESS AND THE "SPANISH PANIC" (CAN YOU CITE THE REFERENCE?)

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16009119

[Demeter]

28. CDS not cause of Greek debt woe, US lawmakers told

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2921657020100429

Credit default swaps did not cause or worsen Greece's debt woes, but actually helped markets realize the depth of its crisis, derivatives experts told U.S. lawmakers on Thursday.

Greece's debt problems, which have pushed it to request a bailout from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, were of its own making, caused by Greece borrowing more than it could repay, the academics and industry experts said in testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services subcommittee on capital markets.

"Credit default swaps (CDS) are the current "villain du jour" in the Greek debt fiasco," said Anthony Sanders, a finance professor at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. "The Greek crisis is the result of massive government spending and debt issuance to fund the spending. In fact, CDSs on Greek sovereign debt actually served a positive role: it alerted everyone around the globe that Greece was in a credit death spiral."

Democratic lawmakers examined the issue as a way to further their case for tougher U.S. regulation of the derivatives markets and of credit ratings agencies. Some have criticized so-called naked credit default swaps, in which no underlying asset is hedged, for worsening the financial crisis by leading to a build-up of risks.

Bad bets on CDS contracts by American International Group Inc (AIG.N) prompted a taxpayer bailout of more than $180 billion for the insurer....

[Demeter]

29. My word, your bonds The world's banks may be heavily exposed to a Greek default

http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displayStory.cfm?story_id=16032068

.....Estimates by The Economist put the total euro-area exposure of foreign banks to Greek sovereign debt at €76 billion, with over 71% held by France and Germany. Estimates for Portugal, which may also be vulnerable to a default, are €32 billion. Little wonder that investors are taking flight...

[FarCenter]

55. But in case of a default, how do the CDSs settle? Who is actually holding the bag.

These reports on exposure to Greek bonds appear to be based on who the nominal owners of the actual bonds are.

We know from other experiences that 10 billion of bonds is likely to be the basis for a substantial multiple of that in derivatives such as Credit Default Swaps.

It would be interesting if Greece paid off 0.9999 of face value, so that the bonds actually default, and the derivatives all have to be netted out/paid off.

[fasttense]

40. But the austerity package requires Greece to prevent any further feeding of babies and

the elderly. Greek police have been sent to ensure every last middle class Greek is in poverty and have been directed to remove any wealth the family may have hidden and hand it over to the IMF. :sarcasm:

[Ghost Dog]

54. There is no doubt a great deal of hidden Greek wealth,

owned by the few, at present, stashed in a variety of under-declarations and offshore vehicles of all sorts. At slightly lower, upper-middle levels, figures show, I learn from the FT but don't have the link at hand, families with very lavish lifestyles declare little income and pay exceedingly little tax.

It would be interesting to learn just how much Greek private wealth is hidden waaay offshore in Northern Cyprus-domiciled financial instruments, for a good example.

[FarCenter]

58. I think that you mean the Republic of Cyprus, which is a EU member and tax haven

Northern Cyprus is the part that Turkey controls since 1974.

http://www.cypruskeysadvisers.net/tax-haven.html
Cyprus Tax Haven - Why it's One of the Best in the European Union

[Ghost Dog]

73. Ah, I wasn't aware of that. I meant the North,

which, last I heard, is low-tax and very secretive, for double-irony :evilgrin:

...or, should I say double-perfidy.

[Ghost Dog]

56. & No More Education.

(University graduates can't find their level of employment anyway, traditionally, without 'connections').

[Ghost Dog]

52. Revenge of (or on?) the Rating Agencies

Many observers assign a large part of the blame for the 2008 financial crisis to the "big three" credit rating agencies, which gave their AAA seal of approval to worthless investments. Now those same agencies are helping to bring the euro zone to its knees -- and no one is trying to stop them.

The scandal brewing over Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's biggest bank, has been sucking in more and more players. These include the bankers and traders who sold the infamously risky credit products that helped trigger the subprime crisis, the hedge fund billionaire John Paulson, who cashed in big at the expense of the victims, and the US politicians who condoned the farce for the longest time.

One group, however, has so far escaped the grip of the widening affair, although it's embroiled just as deeply. That group is the major credit rating agencies -- the same ones which are now causing Europe to shudder, having downgraded their ratings for Greece, Spain and Portugal.

It was Standard & Poor's (S&P) and Moody's, the same two agencies which are now rocking the European boat, which in 2007 had given their seal of approval to "Abacus 2007-AC1," Goldman's ill-fated credit product, by giving it the highest AAA rating -- only to cut it down to "junk" status nine months later. Goldman's investors lost more than $1 billion; the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is suing Goldman for fraud, alleging that it misled investors.

Phantoms and Puppet Masters

Wherever things blow up in the financial world, the rating agencies' tracks can be found. The anonymous analysts of S&P, Moody's and Fitch (the smallest of the "big three") were center stage during the global crash. They also appear in the SEC fraud complaint against Goldman. And now they're causing financial havoc in Europe.

They're the éminences grises of Wall Street, phantoms and puppet masters. They wield enormous power over the fate of loans, deals, companies and even countries. Yet rarely has anyone ever really questioned their actions -- let alone held them accountable.

/... http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,692007,00.html

[Demeter]

20. India blocks Chinese telecoms imports

The Indian government is blocking purchases of telecoms equipment from Chinese vendors on national security grounds, ratcheting up trade tensions between Asia’s fastest-growing large economies.
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/UXDMSS/UU81ZO/1O51V/A7ERQ9/UUT6XE/82/t

[Demeter]

21. Nomura sees first profit in three years

Nomura on Wednesday said it returned to full-year profit for the first time in three years but the results pale in comparison to the strong performance by its overseas rivals Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

The Japanese bank made Y67.8bn ($728m) in net profit in the year to March, compared with last year’s net loss of Y708bn, reflecting the contribution of Lehman Brothers’ Asian and European operations which the bank acquired in 2008 to help it leapfrog into the top league of global investment banks.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/ZE9K33/YH01TX/1O51V/18MM1J/180V16/VU/t

[Demeter]

24. Spanish Unemployment Tops 20%, Hurting Deficit Fight (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3yHwbh6Z5M8&pos=1

........Spanish unemployment is the highest in the euro region and double the average rate in the European Union, according to separate data from the EU’s statistics office.



Spanish borrowing costs have surged in the past two weeks on concern the country will struggle to push the deficit below the EU limit of 3 percent of economic output. Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s credit rating on April 28, saying the government was underestimating its fiscal problems and overestimating growth prospects. Adding to public spending, Zapatero has extended benefits for the long-term unemployed.

“The government’s scenario is a bit more optimistic than what we’re seeing, so the welfare costs for the unemployed are going to be higher,” said Jesus Castillo, an economist at Natixis in Paris. “If they don’t take new measures the 3 percent deficit target is not going to be met.” .........

[Demeter]

26. WISHFUL THINKING DEPT: Obama’s Rebounding Economy Revealed in Junk-Bond Dividend Deals

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=av_KYsCZrd9w

Buyers of high-yield, high-risk debt are betting that President Barack Obama is leading the U.S. economy to an enduring recovery.

Investors have gobbled up $99.6 billion of junk-bond sales in 2010, a record for the first four months of the year, including the most bonds to fund dividends for private-equity firms since before the credit crisis began in August 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Standard & Poor’s LCD. Prices for the average speculative-grade security climbed to 99.7 cents on the dollar this week, the highest since June 2007, up from 54.8 cents in December 2008, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II Index.

The return of an appetite for risk shows growing confidence that the U.S. will avoid a double-dip recession, said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Capital Markets Group. Profits for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index surged 176 percent in the final three months of 2009, and the U.S. economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual pace in first quarter, according to the median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after expanding 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

The junk-bond rally demonstrates “a sense that the worst is over for the U.S. economy and that a self-sustaining recovery could materialize by the summer,” Lonski said in an interview from his New York office. High-yield, or junk, bonds are those rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and lower than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s....

[Po_d Mainiac]

33. The first thought that comes to mind is

The mollusk and other banksters can buy "junk" ratings in the same fashion they bought "investment grade"

One certainty, there are going to be more pension funds getting hosed
:donut: Good morning

[Demeter]

35. I Think It's a Lack of Better Alternatives

Some things simply have to be invested in something--and the range of investments nowadays is very hopeless.

[Demeter]

27. Lehman case "backs" accounting convergence

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE63S2EZ20100429

The use by Lehman Brothers bank of a U.S. accounting device to strengthen its balance sheet would not have worked under global accounting rules, a top industry official told the Reuters Global Financial Regulation Summit on Thursday.

The now defunct U.S. bank was criticised in a report by a U.S. court-appointed examiner last month for using Repo 105, an accounting rule that allowed Lehman to temporarily remove some $50 billion (32.7 billion pounds) in assets from its balance sheet.

"From an IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) perspective I would suspect that most transactions would have stayed on the balance sheet," said Philippe Danjou, a board member of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB).

"It makes a case for convergence, it makes a case that we should not have different outcomes under different accounting standards when you have such big amounts," Danjou told the Reuters Regulation Summit.

The IASB, which draws up International Financial Reporting Standards used in over 110 countries, has been asked by the G20 group of leading economies to converge its rules with U.S. accounting standards by mid-2011.

That deadline is now in doubt due to differences between the IASB and its U.S. counterpart over how many assets held by banks should be valued at the going rate or at cost.

The IASB has opted for a mix of pricing assets at amortised cost and marking-to-market but the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board is expected to opt shortly for widening the use of marking-to-market or fair value.

Danjou said convergence was "not always an easy task" and there may be a need for a "bridge" solution.

"Convergence is the aim. It is a very desirable goal but you cannot force it ... In that case we have a plan which is to establish this bridge," Danjou said.

Financial Stability Board Chairman Mario Draghi said last week there is a very material risk of ending up with large divergences in accounting rules.

European Central Bank executive board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell dismissed the U.S. move to full fair value on Tuesday, saying convergence should not come at the expense on quality, and she was not optimistic about the 2011 deadline...MORE AT LINK

[FarCenter]

61. The Repo 105 only worked because the London law firm Linklaters approved it

Lehman couldn't find a US law firm which would provide an opinion that approved of the deal so they went to the London law firm of Linklaters in order to get an opinion.

This complicated the transaction, since the securities had to be transfered to the London subsidiary of Lehman before that subsidiary could do the Repo 105s with foreign banks in London.

Hows that for "international standards"?

Wall Street may be a fetid swamp, but London is a cesspool -- the most corrupt financial market on earth.

[Demeter]

30. Bank of Ireland Plans to Raise 3.4 Billion Euros (Update4)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2ldTq6Xf5J0&pos=4

....Ireland’s banks need 31 billion euros in capital after “appalling” lending decisions left the country’s financial system on the brink of collapse, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said last month. Bank of Ireland said its plan will help raise a total of 2.8 billion euros after expenses and buying back state warrants....The government pumped 3.5 billion euros into the bank last year to help keep it alive after Irish real-estate values fell by half on average. Lenihan has also set up a so-called bad bank, the National Asset Management Agency, to purge lenders of toxic loans.

The agency is buying debt with a book value of 80 billion euros, about half the size of the Irish economy. In the first tranche of loans, NAMA is buying loans with a nominal value of 1.93 billion euros loans from Bank of Ireland at a discount of about 36 percent.

“Trading conditions in our core markets in Ireland and the U.K. in the first quarter of our 2010 financial year remain challenging though economic conditions have recently shown some signs of stabilization,” Bank of Ireland said in a separate statement today.

Tougher Standards

The country’s financial regulator is imposing higher capital requirements on lenders to help them withstand losses. Bank of Ireland said the fundraising will boost its equity tier one ratio, a measure of financial strength, to 8 percent from 5.3 percent at the end of last year.

[Demeter]

31. World Bank increases voting power of developing countries

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-04/26/c_13266889.htm

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ended their Spring Meetings here on Sunday, with the endorsement of an increase of developing countries' voting power in the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) by 3.13 percentage points to 47.19 percent.

This represents a total shift of 4.59 percent to developing and transition countries since 2008, the World Bank/IMF joint Development Committee said in a communique issued after its meeting in Washington.

The move marks "important strides of increasing the voice and influence of developing countries at the World Bank Group," World Bank President Robert Zoellick said at a press conference. "The endorsement of the shift in voting power is crucial for the bank's legitimacy."

As a result of the shift, China's voting power has now increased to 4.42 percent from 2.77 percent, the third biggest after the United States and Japan....

more at link

[Demeter]

32. Push for Global Bank Tax Bogs Down

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703441404575206384010196258.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

...Although the U.S., Germany, France and the U.K. still support the idea, Canada, Australia and Japan are firmly opposed, according to finance ministers and other people attending International Monetary Fund meetings. The list of opponents also has grown to include Brazil, Switzerland and some Asian countries.

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, shown at a news conference in Ottawa in March, has emerged as a forceful opponent of the proposed tax.

Bank-tax skeptics worry that the tax would be punitive, weaken banks looking to raise capital and create incentives for banks to shift business to countries that don't impose the tax. Others fear a bank tax could divert attention from what they consider a more-pressing priority: devising new rules to ensure banks have bigger capital cushions to absorb losses.

Dutch central banker Nout Wellink, chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which is putting together new banking regulations, said that consideration of taxes should be put off for at least a year until the committee finishes its work....

[Demeter]

34. UPDATE 1-Bank bailout tax plan splits G20

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2312678520100424

........ Governments want to ensure that taxpayers will not be on the hook in the future if troubled financial firms have to be rescued with public money, as happened in the United States, Britain and other European countries during the credit crisis.

Britain and Germany insist banks should pay for their own rescues. France has said a tax on banks could make them safer.

"The countries that did experience the problems are far more committed to taking action," said British Finance Minister Alistair Darling. "They want to see international agreement achieved quickly."........

[Demeter]

37. Looks Like It's Gonna Be One of THOSE Days

when everything goes slowly, if at all...I'm sure Mark Twain had a pithy saying for it.

See you tonight on the Weekend Economist, when we celebrate the Man from Missouri
who put America on the literary map.

[Roland99]

41. "Punch, brothers, punch. Punch with care. Punch in the presence of the passenjare."

we're off to a water park to celebrate my gf's youngest daughter's bday tomorrow.

I'll try and poke my head in at some point over the weekend.

[Demeter]

46. I Love Water Parks!

Have a great day!

[Demeter]

48. Isn't That Kipling?

[Roland99]

59. I dunno...I've never Kipled

:rofl:


http://www.readbookonline.net/readOnLine/559/

[Demeter]

65. I Asked for That

Glad to know you picked it up.

So, Clemens described the earworm! I have sampled his oeuvre, but never to the last drop. And they keep pulling stuff out of storage or hiding....

[Roland99]

66. That was one of my favorite stories that my grandfather retold of Twain's.

They had a great collection of classics in leather-bound, goldleaf pages, etc. An aunt disposed of their entire book collection in some unknown manner after my grandparents passed. That was the only thing I ever wanted from their estate...that set of books.

Oh well...I still have the memories.

[Demeter]

68. Advertise on Craig's List

You might get it back

[AnneD]

81. I remember my Mom reading....

The Frog Jumping Contest of Calavaras County. That was one that as a kid, I caught on to the scam and really laughed. I also rember her reading The Ransome of Little Red Chief by O.Henry. To this day I have a respect and love of a well crafted short story.

[Ghost Dog]

57. A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way.

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/m/mark_twain.html

[Demeter]

63. Good One!

You should send it to the Fabulous Fab--I bet he could identify with it.

[Demeter]

38. Private mortgage insurance companies return to market

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0425-lew-20100425,0,7739757.story

As the FHA tightens its requirements for borrowers with small down payments, independent insurers are back in the game and offering competitive rates....

VERY TECHNICAL WONKY ARTICLE

[UpInArms]

44. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

81.970 -0.033 (-0.04%)

U.S. Dollar Loses Ground Ahead of 1Q GDP, Japanese Yen Weighed By Risk Appetite

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/us_open/2010-04-30-1103-U_S__Dollar_Loses_Ground_Ahead.html

Meanwhile, European Central Bank board member Ewald Nowotny announced “Greek bonds are fully eligible as ECB collateral” as he expects the ailing nation to turn things around, and went onto say that there would not be “any immediate need” for the central bank to adjust its collateral guidelines during a press conference in Vienna.

At the same time, a spokesman for the German government said that the parliament will take the appropriate steps to provide funding for Greece once the discussions between the IMF, EU, ECB and Greek policymakers end “in a few days,” while German Finance Ministry spokesman Michael Offer says he expects a “tough program” for Greece during an announcement in Berlin. Nevertheless, the economic docket showed the consumer price estimate for the Euro-Zone increased to an annualized pace of 1.5% in April from 1.4% in the previous month to mark the highest reading since December 2008, while unemployment held at an 11-year high of 10.0% for the second consecutive month in March. As ECB President Trichet expects to see an uneven recovery this year, the Governing Council is widely expected to hold a loose policy stance going into the second-half of 2010 as it aims to stem the risks for the economies operating under the single-currency, but the central bank may look to normalize policy further later this year as it maintains its one and only mandate to ensure price stability.

The British pound extended the previous day’s advance and crossed back above the 20-Day SMA (1.5349) to reach a high of 1.5386, and the GBP/USD may continue to hold the narrow range from earlier this month ahead of the May election as market participants see a risk for a hung U.K. Parliament. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson said that “the prospect of a hung parliament is already priced into the market” during an interview with Bloomberg Television, but went onto say that a lack of decisive action following the election could “cause huge problems in the financial markets, and problems for the pound” as policy makers continue to see a risk for a protracted recovery. At the same time, Mr. Lawson argued that Greece should have never been allowed into the Euro-Zone as “they cheated on their entrance exam to get in with the assistance of Goldman Sachs,” and said Greece may leave within the next five-years as the government struggles to bring its public finances in-line with the stability pact.

The greenback continued to weaken against most of its currency counterparts, while the Japanese Yen lost ground across the board following the rise in risk appetite, and the U.S. dollar is likely to face increased volatility going into the North American trade as the world’s largest economy is expected to expand 3.3% in the first-quarter of 2010. At the same time, personal consumption is projected to rise 3.3% during the first three-months of the year following the 1.6% expansion in the fourth-quarter, while the core personal consumption expenditure is anticipated to increase 0.5% after advancing 1.8% during the previous three-month period. In addition, the Chicago purchasing manager index is forecasts to rebound to 60.0 in April following the decline to 58.8 in the previous month, while the final reading for the U. of Michigan confidence survey is expected to increase to 71.0 from an initial projection of 69.5 released earlier this month.

...more...

Daily Sound Bites 04.30

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-04-30-0825-Daily_Sound_Bites_04_30.html



...more...

[Dr.Phool]

47. Rich parasites telling people they have to tighten their belts.

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/feature/2010/04/29/economic_sacrifice_open2010/index.html?source=newsletter


We (meaning you) must tighten our belts
Who's getting sick of hearing millionaires lecture people on Medicare about making sacrifices?



This piece originally appeared at Digby's Hullabaloo.

Dean Baker attended the Pete Peterson Social Security Destruction summit earlier today and made this important observation at the revolting sight of Peterson and Robert Rubin patting each other on the backs and demanding that everyone buckle down and sacrifice for the greater good:

Peter Peterson and Robert Rubin are both enormously wealthy men. (They joked about dividing their lunch tab based on their net worth.) They are lecturing the country on the need to cut Social Security and Medicare benefits for retirees who have a tiny fraction of their wealth. Many of the victims of the cuts that they would push are people who are already struggling.

This is so common among the ruling elite that people don't even recognize it anymore. Here's my favorite example from Mrs. Alan Greenspan way back in January of 2009:

MSNBC commentator: ... The subtext of all of this is "hey Americans, you're gonna have to do your part too. There may be some sacrifices involved for you too." Do you think he's going to use his political capital to make those arguments and will it go beyond rhetoric?

Andrea Mitchell: It does go beyond rhetoric. He needs to engage the American people in this joint venture. That's part of the call. That's part of what he needs to accomplish in his speech and in the days following the speech. He needs to make people feel that this is their venture as well and that people are going to need to be more patient and have to contribute and that there will have to be some sacrifice.

And certainly, if he is serious about what he told the Washington Post last week, that he wants to take on entitlement reform, there will be greater sacrifice required from a nation already suffering from economic crisis --- to ask people to take a look at their health care and their other entitlements and realize that for the long term health and vitality of the country we're going to have to give up something that we already enjoy.

As I noted at the time:

Right. Old and sick people are going to have to give up something they "enjoy." That's assuming they "enjoy" being able to eat and go to a doctor. Of course, Andrea Mitchell won't have to give up what she "enjoys." She's a multi-millionaire.

And her husband, Uncle Alan Greenspan, works for John Paulson. That's right. That John Paulson.

This is the where the Village metaphor really hits home. Mrs. Greenspan and the rest of the Beltway insiders have all convinced themselves that their little village represents Real America. So when someone suggests that "entitlements" have to be cut for the common good, that seems like something that nobody should really squeal too much about since they don't know a single soul who will be even slightly inconvenienced by such a thing. S.S. is chump change to these people, not even really worth collecting (but just try to take it from them).

Now, repealing their tax breaks -- that's the kind of sacrifice no self-respecting Real American should ever stand for. Here's Baker again:

... there are ways to get the long-term deficit down to size that don't involve nailing middle income and/or poor people. However, it would be hard to find two people who have benefited more from taxpayer handouts than these two individuals.

Peter Peterson has been the recipient of tens of millions of taxpayer dollars through the fund manager's tax break. This tax break, which is also known as the "carried interest tax deduction" allows managers of hedge and equity funds to pay tax on their earnings at the 15 percent capital gains tax rate, instead of having it taxed as normal income. As a result, Peterson paid a lower tax rate on much of his earnings than tens of millions of people working as school teachers, fire fighters, and other middle income jobs.

Peterson not only collected the money himself, he came to Washington in 2007 to lobby Congress when it debated ending the tax break. He apparently wanted to make sure that his friends would still be able to benefit from this tax break even after he had retired.

After setting the country on a course for the current crisis with the policies he pushed as Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin went to work as a top executive at Citigroup. In this capacity, he earned $110 million before leaving the company in the middle of its 2008 meltdown. As we know, Citigroup was one of the major actors in the housing boom. It produced hundreds of billions of dollars worth of mortgage backed securities.

We all know what happened with Citi.

These rich bastards are telling people who work hard their whole lives that they have to "sacrifice" their meager public pension to refill the Treasury that these same rich bastards have looted --- and which they continue to refuse to help replenish, despite the fact they are still swallowing fire hoses full of money. This, after the middle class in this country just suffered the biggest loss of wealth since the Great Depression as a result of these riverboat gamblers playing with the economy like it was their favorite Baccarat table in Monte Carlo. Chutzpah doesn't even begin to describe it. Sociopathy is more like it.

If they can't do the right thing, the least they could do is slither off into the darkness to count their winnings. Instead, these arrogant jerks are out there lecturing everyone about "sacrifice" while they buy off every government official in town to make sure they aren't among those who have to heed that call.

It's sick.

[Demeter]

64. There's Only One Answer To That

FRSP!

[DemReadingDU]

51. Goldman Sachs down $11, -7%. now at 149 per share

volume leaders...

http://finance.yahoo.com/actives?e=us

[Roland99]

60. Fall, baby. Fall.

[Hugin]

72. *snort*

Now down 9.25%.

[Tansy_Gold]

76. Crash, baby, crash

(A girl can dream, can't she?)

[Festivito]

62. Debt: 04/28/2010 12,876,734,073,745.72 (DOWN 9,581,675,837.24) (Wed)

(Down a small amount. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,355,526,853,326.03 + 4,521,207,220,419.69
DOWN 20,446,125.69 + DOWN 9,561,229,711.55

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,161,347 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,650.53.
A family of three owes $124,951.59. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 7,951,681,247.50.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,361,344,998.00.
The average for the last 33 days would be 5,783,040,907.27.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 144 reports in 210 days of FY2010 averaging 6.71B$ per report, 4.60B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 998 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 18.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/28/2010 12,876,734,073,745.72 BHO (UP 2,249,857,024,832.64 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,966,905,070,234.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,680,573,098,263.86 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----

38,638,233,728.62 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4360976&mesg_id=4361001

[Roland99]

67. Fall, baby. Fall.

sorry....couldn't resist. :)

[Demeter]

69. Somebody heard you

Down 100+ by close, I betcha! And it won't ALL be Goldman Sachs, either.

[Festivito]

86. Call, baby, call, 'cause it: fell, baby, fell. On a Friday no less.

Good call.

Oft it rises for the Friday dump, so no one gets to see things until Monday when it's old news.

[Festivito]

85. Debt: 04/29/2010 12,853,100,126,888.44 (DOWN 23,633,946,857.28) (Thu)

(Down for a large fall, on a Friday dump no less. Good weekend to all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,336,007,537,907.99 + 4,517,092,588,980.45
DOWN 19,519,315,418.04 + DOWN 4,114,631,439.24

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,167,993 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,573.19.
A family of three owes $124,719.57. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 6,952,097,048.89.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,561,677,639.11.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,382,268,683.01.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 145 reports in 211 days of FY2010 averaging 6.51B$ per report, 4.47B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 997 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/29/2010 12,853,100,126,888.44 BHO (UP 2,226,223,077,975.36 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,943,271,123,376.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,631,724,929,063.96 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -

-11,744,801,399.01 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4362354&mesg_id=4362675

[Demeter]

70. It's Truly a Pleasure to See the Justice Dept. Shifting Out of Neutral

Let's hope they can get up to speed and complete the course.

[Robbien]

75. If they aren't too busy down in New Orleans watching the oil spill

WASHINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said on Friday he was dispatching a team of lawyers to New Orleans to monitor the oil spill and that the Obama administration would vigorously enforce environmental laws.

"The Justice Department stands ready to make available every resource at our disposal to vigorously enforce the laws that protect the people who work and reside near the Gulf, the wildlife, the environment and the American taxpayers," Holder said in a statement.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3024154920100430?type=marketsNews



Since under Holder's watch the Exxon oil spill settlement was reduced to pennies, I expect this show of force is just that, a show.

[Robbien]

71. The ONLY State With a Growing Economy During the Last Year Has Its Own Public Bank.

49 out of 50 U.S. states are still showing less economic activity than a year ago, based on February 2010 coincident economic indicators from the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia. The chart below is organized from top to bottom, from the most growth in economic activity to the largest declines in economic activity.

***

North Dakota (ND) is the only state to currently have a higher level of economic activity year over year. Its February 2010 economic activity was 1.1% higher than February 2009

***

North Dakota is the only state with its own public bank.

Any questions?


Chart at link
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-economic-activity-for-us-states-2010-4

[Robbien]

74. Bankster goes nuts and sends out an email declaring war on middle class

I guess he believes that since he is part of the highly paid elite he and his kind are so special that they can get off their cushy chairs and easily take over the productive world pushing us lowly peons out. And it will serve us right.


http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/04/30/a-disgusting-little-email-making-the-rounds-on-wall-street/

This hideous little piece of class warfare is supposedly making the rounds on Wall Street today. Its Us-Vs-Them theme is sickening.

The lobbies of JPMorgan and several other banks were flooded with protesters downtown yesterday, I'm guessing that this was written by a frustrated Wall Streeter in response to the populist uprising.

Here goes:

"We are Wall Street. It's our job to make money. Whether it's a commodity, stock, bond, or some hypothetical piece of fake paper, it doesn't matter. We would trade baseball cards if it were profitable. I didn't hear America complaining when the market was roaring to 14,000 and everyone's 401k doubled every 3 years. Just like gambling, its not a problem until you lose. I've never heard of anyone going to Gamblers Anonymous because they won too much in Vegas.

Well now the market crapped out, & even though it has come back somewhat, the government and the average Joes are still looking for a scapegoat. God knows there has to be one for everything. Well, here we are.

Go ahead and continue to take us down, but you're only going to hurt yourselves. What's going to happen when we can't find jobs on the Street anymore? Guess what: We're going to take yours. We get up at 5am & work till 10pm or later. We're used to not getting up to pee when we have a position. We don't take an hour or more for a lunch break. We don't demand a union. We don't retire at 50 with a pension. We eat what we kill, and when the only thing left to eat is on your dinner plates, we'll eat that.

For years teachers and other unionized labor have had us fooled. We were too busy working to notice. Do you really think that we are incapable of teaching 3rd graders and doing landscaping? We're going to take your cushy jobs with tenure and 4 months off a year and whine just like you that we are so-o-o-o underpaid for building the youth of America. Say goodbye to your overtime and double time and a half. I'll be hitting grounders to the high school baseball team for $5k extra a summer, thank you very much.

So now that we're going to be making $85k a year without upside, Joe Mainstreet is going to have his revenge, right? Wrong! Guess what: we're going to stop buying the new 80k car, we aren't going to leave the 35 percent tip at our business dinners anymore. No more free rides on our backs. We're going to landscape our own back yards, wash our cars with a garden hose in our driveways. Our money was your money. You spent it. When our money dries up, so does yours.

The difference is, you lived off of it, we rejoiced in it. The Obama administration and the Democratic National Committee might get their way and knock us off the top of the pyramid, but it's really going to hurt like hell for them when our fat a**es land directly on the middle class of America and knock them to the bottom.

We aren't dinosaurs. We are smarter and more vicious than that, and we are going to survive. The question is, now that Obama & his administration are making Joe Mainstreet our food supply…will he? and will they?"

[Roland99]

78. Sour grapes. And for the edification of that asshat prick, plenty of us were calling it what it was!

A big steaming pile of crap.

[AnneD]

82. Last time Wall Street was taken down a peg or two.......

we had one of the longest and best expansions we had ever known. My children should be so lucky.

[Ghost Dog]

83. "If anyone knows who wrote (this) email,

which has been pinging around Wall Street and across prop desks, tell ‘em get in touch with FT Alphaville. We like the writing style."

- http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/04/30/217381/we-are-wall-street-we-are-smarter-and-more-vicious-than-dinosaurs/

[PassingFair]

84. We're used to not getting up to pee". Let's see 'em do it for $15 bucks an hour!

Asshats!

[Roland99]

79. At the close - OWWIE!

Dow 11,009 -159 -1.42%
Nasdaq 2,461 -51 -2.02%
S&P 500 1,187 -20 -1.67%
GlobalDow 1,993 -16 -0.82%
Gold 1,179 +10 +0.88%
Oil 85.96 +0.79 +0.93%
10-yr T-bond 3.66 -0.07
Euro /$1US 1.3310 +0.0071
$1US / Yen 93.9700 -0.1300
Pound / $1US 1.5295 -0.0041


Wonder if my interest rate lock might lower on that. doubt it...got a nice 1/8 pt cut in some negotiations so I'm probably still ahead of that game.