STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday May 3

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday May 3, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 3, 2010

Dow... 11,008.61 -158.71 (-1.44%)
Nasdaq... 2,461.19 -50.73 (-2.06%)
S&P 500... 1,186.69 -20.09 (-1.69%)
Gold future... 1,178 -3.10 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.65 -0.07 (-1.93%)
30-Year Bond 4.52 -0.07 (-1.55%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Personal Income Mar
Briefing.com NA
Consensus 0.3%
Prior 0.0%

08:30 Personal Spending Mar
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

10:00 Construction Spending Mar
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

10:00 ISM Index Apr
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

14:00 Auto Sales Apr
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

14:00 Truck Sales Apr
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

45. 8:30 reports:

8:30a U.S. March personal incomes up 0.3%

8:30a U.S. March real consumer spending up 0.5%

8:30a U.S. March wages, salaries rise 0.2%

8:30a U.S. March real disposable incomes rise 0.2%

8:30a U.S. March core inflation up 0.1%

8:30a U.S. real consumer spending at all-time high

8:30a U.S. March personal savings rate drops to 2.7%

8:30a U.S. March personal incomes up 0.3%

[ozymandius]

2. Oil below $86 as traders eye Gulf crude spill

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $86 a barrel Monday in Asia as traders eyed whether a massive crude spill in the Gulf of Mexico would slow imports to the U.S.

Some analysts expect the 30-mile (48-kilometer) oil slick caused by as much as 210,000 gallons (795,000 liters) of crude gushing into the Gulf each day could undermine imports to key Louisiana terminals, helping to lower crude inventories and boost prices.

Investors are also mulling a recent jump of U.S. crude supplies, a sign demand hasn't rebounded along with the overall economic recovery.

In other Nymex trading in May contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.3166 a gallon, and gasoline slipped 0.34 cent to $2.3960 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 1.4 cents to $3.934 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Greece promised rescue package, but investors wary

ATHENS/BRUSSELS (Reuters) – European nations aim to formally launch the biggest ever financial bailout of a country this week, hoping to calm markets wary that Greece's rescue may be the first of several, expensive measures to shore up other economies.

Economists said that if the emergency aid fails to win over skeptical investors -- and gain the necessary parliamentary approval by Germany among others -- European countries could end up footing a bill of half a trillion euros ($650 billion) to save other fiscally weak nations.

Euro zone ministers, meeting in emergency session on Sunday, approved the three-year package of emergency loans after Greece committed itself to the painful austerity measures that have sent thousands of Greeks into the streets in protest.

Crucially, the aid would be released in time for Athens to make a big debt repayment to creditors on May 19.

While the rescue package should remove the threat of a Greek default and reduce the pressure that has sent borrowing costs for it and other highly indebted euro zone states soaring, the aid still needs parliamentary approval by Germany and other states.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100503/bs_nm/us_eurozone

[DemReadingDU]

25. Not just the EU, but also the IMF. U.S. contributes to IMF. So U.S. bailing out Greece!

5/3/10
ATHENS/LONDON (Reuters) – Financial markets reacted skeptically on Monday to a record 110 billion euro ($146 billion) EU/IMF bailout for Greece, with investors doubting it will solve the euro zone's growing debt crisis.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100503/bs_nm/us_eurozone

More on NPR, appx 4 minutes
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126468790

[Ghost Dog]

51. This is not going to work without tax rises (and tax evasion prosecutions) for the well-off and rich

... Papandreou warned the Greek population that it would be forced to make "great sacrifices" and that his government's goal was to "avoid bankruptcy." The Greek government is seeking to reduce the budget deficit from 14 percent to 4 percent of Greece's gross domestic product (GDP), which stands at roughly €245 billion. A proportionate reduction would amount to $1.4 trillion in government spending cuts in the US, or €241 billion worth of state spending cuts in Germany.

As it absorbs the impact of these cuts, the Greek economy is expected to contract by 4 percent this year—compared to previous estimates of a contraction of 0.3 percent.

After the cabinet meeting, Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou gave some details on the further cuts the government will demand. Public sector workers face a 15 percent cut in their official wages: wages traditionally paid as "13th" or "14th" monthly salaries will disappear, replaced by a bonus capped at a maximum of €1,000 per year, available only for workers with monthly salaries under €3,000. Wages will then be frozen until 2014. Other bonuses—a large portion of public-sector workers' total pay—will be cut by 8 percent, on top of previous cuts of 12 percent.

Pensioners also face massive cuts. The retirement age—65 for men, 60 for women—will be increased and indexed in relation to life expectancy, while the pay-in period to receive a full pension will increase from 37 to 40 years. Pensions will be calculated from the average yearly salary a worker has earned over the course of his working life, and not the last yearly salary he received.

In the private sector, a new minimum salary will be put in place for young workers, and the government plans to scrap legislation barring companies from firing more than 2 percent of their total work force in any given month, while loosening guidelines on severance packages.

Sales taxes—which fall most heavily on the working class—will be increased by 2 percent, to 23 percent, after a two-percent increase in March, with a further 10 percent increase on fuel, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products. Property taxes will also increase, and Athens announced a one-time tax on "highly profitable" companies.

Athens also plans to privatize mass transit and utilities—moves that will doubtless dramatically increase user fees, just as workers face plunging wages and rising unemployment. There will also be large cuts in spending on hospital equipment and medical care.

/... http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/may2010/gree-m03.shtml

[Demeter]

55. They Are Crazy

That will never work. Why not just kill off 20% of the population humanely?

The people did not cause this problem.

[ozymandius]

4. Asian stocks drop as China raises bank reserves

SINGAPORE – Asian stocks fell Monday after China ordered banks to raise their reserves, the latest in a series of moves aimed at curbing inflation and surging property prices. European shares opened lower.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index led decliners, falling 297.23 points, or 1.4 percent, to 20,811.36 while South Korea's benchmark dropped 1.2 percent to 1,721.21.

Singapore and India each slid 0.9 percent and Australia skidded 0.5 percent after the government said it would impose a new tax on the profits of mining companies. Malaysia's stock index was steady while Indonesia dropped 0.5 percent.

As trading got started in Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 1.1 percent while France's CAC-40 index fell 0.6 percent and Germany's DAX dropped 0.3 percent. Stock futures pointed to modest gains on Wall Street.

The People's Bank of China said Monday that the deposit reserve requirement ratio for most banks will be raised half a percentage point, starting May 10. This is the third time this year that the central bank has raised the deposit reserve minimum.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100503/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[girl gone mad]

8. After Chinese Rate Hike, Faber Warns Of Severe Market Crash In 9-12 Months

I’ve maintained for quite some time that the biggest risks to the U.S. equity markets were not domestic. Not even close. The biggest risks to the U.S. equity markets come from abroad. Clearly, the problems in Greece are taking all the headlines today, but the biggest news of the day (in my opinion) is the continuing tightening measures that were announced in China where the reserve ratio was raised for the third time this year. As I’ve said before, the huge stimulus response in China was the grossest misuse of public funds during the entirety of bailout fever. It’s slowly coming back to haunt them as malinvestment in the property market has sparked fears of a bubble and the economy now appears to be overheating.

Marc Faber told Bloomberg TV overnight that the Chinese equity market is now at risk of a crash:

“The signals are all there, the symptoms of a major bubble are all there. The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months.”

HSBC is a bit more sanguine on the situation:

“We think most onshore investors are comparing the equity market this year with what’s happening in 2004-2005. China equity market fell from 3000 to 1500 after the internet bubble and just start to recover which is similar to 09 recovery rally as well. China also started to raise RRR and later IR during that period, PBOC is obviously doing the same thing now. We see the liquidity situation in the mkt will keep weighing on markets.”

Like most central banks throughout history China is responding in classic scientific method – AFTER The evidence is in. Of course, we’ve seen this happen time and time again here in the states and the Chinese appear to be replaying this episode for themselves. Just as they were late to the party in tightening and cutting during the last cycle they are once again behind the curve.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/after-chinese-rate-hike-faber-warns-of-severe-market-crash-in-9-12-months-2010-5#ixzz0mrQW1gYy

[ozymandius]

5. UAL, Continental Approve Merger Forming Biggest Airline

United Airlines parent UAL Corp. and Continental Airlines Inc. agreed to merge in a stock swap that will create the world’s biggest carrier by passenger traffic.

United’s name and Chicago headquarters will be retained, while Continental Chief Executive Officer Jeff Smisek, 55, will become the CEO and United’s Glenn Tilton, 62, will be chairman, the companies said today in a statement. Each Continental share will be exchanged for 1.05 UAL shares.

Annual cost savings and new revenue from the merger should reach $1 billion to $1.2 billion by 2013, the airlines said. The transaction requires approval by shareholders and regulators, and the companies said they expect the deal to close in the fourth quarter.

Based on April 30 closing prices, UAL had the third-largest market value among U.S. carriers at $3.63 billion, followed by Continental at $3.12 billion. UAL gained 13 cents to $21.60 on the Nasdaq Stock Market on that date, while Continental slid 35 cents to $22.35 on the New York Stock Exchange.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-02/ual-board-said-to-approve-continental-air-merger-to-create-biggest-carrier.html

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No mention of how this will affect the workforce in terms of layoffs.

[AnneD]

52. Talk about lipstick on a pig...

We are hearing all kinds of promises here. They want to get the merger approved. But we have seen too many mergers here. They are going to be cutting jobs here and moving them to Chicage. Now stop me if I am wrong, but don't they have to shut down Chicago's OHara airport for like 2 months in the winter. It strikes me as stupid to headquarter in Chicago (don't get me wrong-I love Chicago). Houston will lose high paying jobs and it is going to hurt....like NASA.

[ozymandius]

6. Volcker Rule Aims at Moral Hazard

From Ritholtz:

This may be the best rationale I’ve seen the MSM use when mentioning the Volcker rule:

“The Senate is considering writing into law what Mr. Obama calls “the Volcker rule,” which would effectively bar banks from the risky and often lucrative practice of trading for their own accounts. The Volcker rule is aimed at undoing a side-effect of the bailouts of 2008 and 2009: An assumption that government will always rescue big financial institutions, and thus make it easier for them to borrow heavily to make risky bets.”

I keep hearing people complain that the Volcker rule would not have prevented the crisis. The Volcker Rule is aimed at the side effects of the rescue, not prevention. Indeed, in the post crisis, post-bailout era, we must strive not only to prevent the next set of taxpayer funded bailouts — but to minimize the negative repercussions of the last rescue.

Typical of ignoring the impact of the rescue is the fin services mega lobbyist, the Financial Services Forum. Consider what their spokesbitch, Rob Nichols, recently bleated:

“Trading—proprietary or otherwise—didn’t lead to the recent crisis. Let’s focus on correcting the major deficiencies in our current supervisory framework first.”

That is an example of a false dichotomy — there is nothing that prevents a society from a) attacking the cause of problem and b) cleaning up the side effects of the prior rescue.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/volcker-rule-aims-at-moral-hazard/

[ozymandius]

7. Clients prepare to sever Goldman ties

Capricorn Investment Group, one of the world's biggest family offices, could break its relationship with Goldman Sachs following accusations by the US financial watchdog that the firm misled clients over mortgage trading.

The California-based firm is the first big client known to be reviewing ties with the investment bank in the wake of the fraud allegations which stunned the financial world, but dozens of others are said to be considering their relationship.

Capricorn, headed by Stephen George, a former Goldman banker, manages around $7bn for its high-profile investors, which include the former US vice-president, Al Gore. The firm's executives are understood to be so angry with Goldman that they are deciding whether to continue using the firm for business transactions.

A spokeswoman, talking from Palo Alto, said that the firm never comments, either on its banks or its clients. One source close to the firm, which was founded by billionaire Jeffrey Skoll, former president of eBay and an executive producer of An Inconvenient Truth, Mr Gore's Oscar winning film on climate change, said the final straw had been watching the testimony of Goldman's top executives at last week's Senate investigation. Goldman's chief executive, Lloyd Blankfein, and six other past and present executives were grilled by the sub-committee which accused the firm's executives of acting greedily and unethically.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/clients-prepare-to-sever-goldman-ties-1960103.html

[Demeter]

15. Walk the Walk, Then

Just talking about it doesn't impress anyone, least of all GS. After all, when you're doing God's work, who cares what anyone mortal says?

[ozymandius]

9. Big Money: Debunking the myth of the 'sophisticated investor'

As part of their defense in a messy SEC investigation, Goldman Sachs and investor John Paulson have trotted out a classic Wall Street defense: Their customers were "sophisticated investors."

Wall Street loves the "sophisticated investors" argument, and little wonder: It could generate infinite financial fees if only the populace could be convinced that it's okay to fool some of the people all of the time. The problem is that even when only some of the people get fooled, all of us are paying all of the time.

Pension funds, for instance, are considered "sophisticated investors" on Wall Street. But those are just pools of retirement money owed to workers. The pension funds, looking to expand their stash, invest in stocks and bonds sold by Wall Street. These pension funds also give their money to other funds, such as hedge funds and private equity funds, that invest that money in riskier investments, perhaps troubled companies or distressed mortgages. Pension funds play the Wall Street game to score a healthy return -- but when they lose, the money lost belongs to regular people.

Consider synthetic collateralized debt obligations -- which describes bets made on a bundle of securities tied to home loans -- like Abacus. Banks would need to lend $50 billion of mortgages to regular people in order to create a $1 billion CDO like Abacus, according to Michael Lewis in "The Big Short." These deals didn't cause the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression; what they did was far worse.

They took the basic subprime losses and magnified them to a point at which no one -- not banks, not investors, not entire governments -- could bear the cost of the massacre that followed. It cost only $35 million a year to buy protection against the failure of billions of dollars of assets. When these assets failed, the insurance holders didn't get $35 million a year; they received many multiples of that. Banks nearly collapsed trying to scrounge together the money to pay back these insurance policies. The two banks that bought the Abacus deal both received multiple bailouts from the taxpayers of Germany and Britain. Yet Goldman and Paulson insist their deals concerned only sophisticated investors. Tell that to the foreign governments.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/01/AR2010050100205.html

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Caveat emptor, indeed.

[ozymandius]

10. Where credit is due

This is an entry at DailyKos from exmearden:

The captains of finance and industry will tell you that the whole process of describing collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps is too complex and sophisticated for the average American to understand. Really, this stuff at the simplest level is crap - empty paper with no value backing it and no tangible, fungible collateral to attach should the investment go bad. The Abacus Ac-1 2007 20070226 Pitchbook appears to state that there’s no there there.

No Legal or Beneficial Interest in Obligations of Reference Entities
Participation in the transaction does not constitute a purchase or other acquisition or assignment of any interest in any obligation of any Reference Entity. Neither the Issuer nor Investors will have recourse against any Reference Entitites. Neither the Investors nor any other entity will have any rights to acquire from Goldman Sachs any interest in any obligation of any Reference Entity, notwithstanding any reduction in the principal of the relevant class with respect to such Reference Entity. Neither the issuer nor any investor will have the benefit of any collateral delivered by any reference Entity nor any right to enforce any remedies against any Reference Entity.

In the past few days during my cruise on the web for links (and there are many that date back to 2005-2006 that warn of impending doom) I’ve repeatedly come across the theory that the ultimate blame for this crisis rests on the backs of homebuyers who wanted easy money and got it. That the blame lies ultimately and squarely with Main Street, not Wall Street. It was Main Street consumer demand that drove the growth of corruption. Blogs, newspaper articles, pundits’ theories, testimonies before Congress: so many sources find it facile to imply that if it wasn’t for the greedy homebuyers, there wouldn’t have been the creation of these risky mortgages.

How many subprime homebuyers were told that the future equity in their new house was money in the bank by a lender offering them what is now affectionately called a "liar’s loan"?

How many subprime lenders assured a potential borrower that the economy was strong enough that their income would only increase over the life of the loan?

How many borrowers were persuaded that they could easily refinance within the 2 to 3 year period before their Option ARM readjusted?

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/2/862901/-Where-credit-is-due

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This is a lengthy entry and well worth your time.

[ozymandius]

11. Good morning, all and I hope you have a nice day.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Time for me to get ready for work. I will glance here when there is a free moment.

:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

12. That toon today

Wouldn't surprise me that there is some truth in it.

[Demeter]

16. So that Amounts to ....$10 and change?

But not change we can believe in.

[UpInArms]

13. Goldman Sachs takes PE crown

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20100502/REG/305029982

While executives of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. were getting grilled on Capitol Hill about deals involving mortgage-related securities, another division of the company quietly made headlines of a different sort.

Advertisment




Thanks to the firm's Principal Investment Area, the world's most controversial bank is now also the world's largest private-equity firm.

In a ranking of global private-equity firms, Goldman surpassed 800-pound gorillas such as The Carlyle Group, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Apollo Global Management LLC to take first place, according to Private Equity International, a trade publication. It uses a proprietary ranking methodology based on data from buyouts, growth equity, venture capital, control-oriented distressed investing and mezzanine debt.

Goldman's jump to first place was fueled by two impressive feats: The closing of a $13 billion mezzanine debt fund in 2008 and the closing of its $20.3 billion PE fund, GS Capital Partners IV, in 2007. It was also helped along by the financial crisis, which hurt private-equity firms with large investments in troubled banks.

The top spot on last year's list was held by TPG, the private-equity firm formerly known as Texas Pacific Group. TPG's fall in the rankings was largely due to its ill-fated lead role in a $7 billion investment in Washington Mutual just months before the federal government stepped in and seized the bank in September 2008.

...more...

How handy that they make the collapse of WaMu look like it happened because the "goverment stepped in and seized the bank."

[UpInArms]

14. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

82.177 +0.372 (+0.48%)

Opening Comment 05.03

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/opening_comment/2010-05-03-0435-Opening_Comment_05_03.html

Harsh realities are once again setting in on Monday, with any positive reaction from the announcement of the EU/IMF Greek deal having faded as market participants grow more fearful of additional debt problems in other Eurozone economies, and the social unrest expected in Greece as a result of the latest deal.
Also seen weighing on sentiment has been the Goldman Sachs criminal probe news, which sent stocks into a tailspin on Friday. Goldman Sachs stock was down some 10%.The famed investment giant could however be poised for some recovery today after the FT has reported that the firm intends to make some changes to its practices with institutional clients. Warren Buffet has also come out in support of Goldman, saying that he “loves” his $5B stake in the firm. Currencies have come under pressure across the board on Monday, with the Euro and Swissie leading the declines on the back of these developments.

Price action should however be taken with a grain of salt, as Japanese, Chinese, and other Asian markets are closed for holiday. European trade is also expected to be considerably thinner given the UK bank holiday. Australian and New Zealand markets are not closed on Monday, and both local currencies have benefited nicely from some encouraging economic data. Australian house prices showed another impressive gain, while inflation momentum picked up to help add to the likelihood of an RBA rate hike on Tuesday. Meanwhile, New Zealand commodity export prices were solid and Kiwi has actually managed to stay marginally bid on the day against the buck, despite all other major currencies tracking lower.

...more...

US Dollar Strength Depends on Nonfarm Payrolls, Euro Zone Resolution

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2010-04-30-2236-US_Dollar_Strength_Depends_on.html

The US Dollar finished the week lower against the Euro and other major forex counterparts, shedding early-week gains on a relative calm in ongoing Euro Zone fiscal crises. The Greenback had originally hit fresh multi-month highs against the downtrodden Euro as major rating agencies downgraded long-term sovereign credit ratings on both Spain and Portugal. Yet official announcements on further budget cuts and financial aid to Greece helped calm tumultuous FX markets. Market attention now turns to the upcoming week of critical US event risk, and the next several days of trading may very well dictate more medium-term direction in the US Dollar and other major currency counterparts.

A late-week US Nonfarm Payrolls report will likely dominate headlines in the coming week, but traders should likewise monitor any and all developments in earlier event risk. Indeed, the usual battery of pre-NFP releases should give a much better sense of what to expect from the highly market-moving US employment report. First on the ledger, analysts forecast that the ISM Manufacturing report showed robust growth in goods-producing sectors through the month of April. Any surprises in said number could color expectations for historically market-moving ISM Services data due just two days later.

Wednesday’s ADP Employment and Challenger Job Cuts data could likewise color forecasts for what promises to be a contentious NFP release. A poll by Bloomberg News shows that economists predict the US economy added a net 75k to 300k jobs in April with a median prediction of a 200k gain. The large spread between the low and high estimate truly underlines the indecision surrounding the release and will likely make any surprises that much more significant. Substantial hiring for the 2010 US Census should theoretically leave risks to the topside, but NFP results are notoriously difficult to predict.

US Dollar bulls should hope that the economy added jobs for a second consecutive month, and it would be the first such occurrence since December, 2007. With so much riding on the release, any especially large surprises could easily set the tone for US Dollar trading in the days to follow. Traders will certainly wonder whether the all-important US labor market has truly turned the corner and if consumer spending can recover through the second quarter.

Recent upward momentum leaves the US Dollar at an advantage over the Euro and other majors, but the wildcard remains whether markets see resolution in ongoing Euro Zone fiscal crises. Some have claimed that the EURUSD rallied into Friday’s close in expectation that the European Monetary Union and International Monetary Fund will announce a bailout for Greece over the weekend. That is a possibility, but if true would suggest that the US Dollar stands to gain on inaction. It should be an interesting start to what promises to be a similarly eventful week of forex trading.



...more...

[Demeter]

17. AP analysis: Economic stress drops in most areas

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100503/ap_on_bi_ge/us_stress_map

Economic stress declined in March in nearly three-quarters of the nation's 3,141 counties, according to The Associated Press' monthly analysis of conditions around the country...In 38 of the 50 states, economic distress dipped or was unchanged from February, AP's Economic Stress Index found. Nationwide, foreclosures worsened slightly. Bankruptcy rates did, too. But those declines were offset by a better jobs picture...

The AP's index found the average county's Stress score in March was 11.5. That was down from February's average score of 11.8 and January's 11.9. The January average was the highest since the AP began publishing the stress index a year ago...The index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. A higher score indicates more stress. Under a rough rule of thumb, a county is considered stressed when its score exceeds 11...Just over half the counties were deemed stressed in March. That compares with nearly 55 percent in February...

In the AP's index, the order of the most economically stressed states was unchanged from February: Nevada, a center of the nation's housing boom and bust, again had the highest Stress score, 21.3. It was followed by Michigan (18.15), hit by the battered auto industry. Next were California (17.21), Florida (16.14) and Illinois (15.13). Michigan's and California's scores worsened in March; those of the three other states improved. The least stressed states were: North Dakota (5.61), South Dakota (5.97), Nebraska (6.5), Louisiana (7.7) and Vermont (7.76)...

Over the past year, Nevada, New Mexico (10.43), Florida and Illinois have suffered the most deterioration in economic conditions. Vermont (7.76), North Dakota, Minnesota (10.27) and South Dakota have had the most improvement...The most stressed counties with populations of at least 25,000 were concentrated in California, Nevada and Michigan. Worst was Imperial County, Calif. (31.27), followed by Merced County, Calif. (28.29), Lyon County, Nev. (27.96), San Benito County, Calif. (27.26), and Sutter County, Calif. (26.41).

The least-stressed counties were in Kansas and South Dakota. Leading the way was Ford County, Kan. (4.07), home to two beef processing plants. Next were Ellis County, Kan. (4.17), Brown County, S.D. (4.6), Brookings County, S.D. (4.66), and Finney County, Kan. (4.89).


THIS REPORT BROUGHT TO YOU BY DEMETER IN OVER-STRESSED AND TOTALLY IGNORED MICHIGAN...

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. The therapeutic effects of medical weed are paying dividends n/t

[Po_d Mainiac]

31. dupe

[Demeter]

18. A New Deal for Local Economies

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/05/02-3


More local, durable economies are already taking root. We can help them along by changing the way we regulate businesses, plan cities, and finance the communities we want.

by Stacy Mitchell

Let me begin by sharing some good news. Scattered here and there, in my country and in yours, the seeds of a new, more local, and more durable economy are taking root.

The Power of Local



Locally grown food has soared in popularity. There are now 5,274 active farmers markets in the United States. Remarkably, almost one of every two of these markets was started within the last decade. Food co-ops and neighborhood greengrocers are likewise on the rise.

Some 400 new independent bookstores have opened in the last four years. Neighborhood hardware stores are making a comeback in some cities. Most students graduating from pharmacy school report that they would rather open their own drugstore than work for chain. Last April, even as Virgin Megastores prepared to shutter its last U.S. record emporium, more than a thousand independent music stores were mobbed for the second annual Record Store Day, a celebration of independent record stores that drew hundreds of thousands of people into local stores, became one of the top search terms on Google, and triggered a 16-point upswing in album sales.

Driving is down in U.S. over the last two years, while data from a dozen metropolitan regions show that houses located within walking distance of local businesses have held value better than those isolated in the suburbs, where the nearest gallon of milk is a five-mile drive to a superstore.

In city after city, independent businesses are organizing and building an increasingly powerful counterweight to the big business lobby on issues as varied as tax policy and global warming. Local business alliances have now formed in over 130 cities and collectively count some 30,000 businesses as members. These alliances are calling on people to choose independent businesses and locally produced goods more often, making a compelling case that doing so is critical to rebuilding middle-class prosperity, averting environmental catastrophe, and ensuring that our daily lives are not smothered by corporate uniformity.

And there is growing evidence that these initiatives are succeeding. During the 2009's slow holiday season, a nationwide survey by the Institute for Local Self-Reliance found that independent businesses actually outperformed chain competitors. What accounted for this relative good fortune? Many of those surveyed said that more people are deliberately seeking out locally owned businesses.

But here's what is perhaps the strongest—and, undoubtedly, the most bizarre—evidence to date that people's priorities are changing: Many massive, globe-spanning corporations are now trying to figure out how they can be "local" too.

Hellmann's, the mayonnaise brand owned by the processed-food giant Unilever, is test-driving a new "Eat Real, Eat Local" marketing campaign. Frito-Lay is using farmers to pitch its potato chips as local food. Barnes & Noble, the world's top seller of books, has launched a new campaign under the tagline, "All bookselling is local." Winn-Dixie, one of the largest supermarket chains in the U.S., has a new slogan: "Local flavor since 1956." The International Council of Shopping Centers, a global consortium of mall developers, is pouring millions of dollars into television ads urging people to "Shop Local"—at their nearest mall.

Most astounding of all, Starbucks, a company that has spent untold millions developing one of the most recognizable brands on the planet, is now beginning to un-brand some of its outlets. The first of these reopened as "15th Avenue Coffee and Tea" in Seattle. Unless you read the fine print on the menu, you would quite easily assume it was an independent coffee house.

Corporations desperately want to turn the local economy movement into nothing more than a cheap marketing trick they can appropriate for their own ends. These attempts at imitation are unnerving. But in the end I think this new variation on corporate green-washing—let's call it local-washing—will backfire. In the meantime, I'm heartened by what it says about the current consciousness. After all, these companies spend enormous sums on market research—they would not be doing this unless they had detected a sizeable shift in public attitudes.


Changing the Rules

While signs abound that people are rediscovering the benefits of an economy rooted in community and small-scale enterprise, all of this activity, though widespread, is still quite modest. It exists largely on the margins and is unlikely to coalesce into a wholesale reorganization of our economy unless we change the rules.


About ten years ago, the Institute for Local Self-Reliance launched the New Rules Project to develop and advocate for policies that would democratize ownership, refashion the economy for long-term sustainability, and nurture strong, self-conscious, and self-governing communities. To get the economy we want, I believe that three areas of policy reform are especially critical.

SHE INCLUDES LINKS TO THREE SUPPORTING ARTICLES--SEE ORIGINAL LINK!

Stacy Mitchell is a senior researcher with the New Rules Project, a program of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance that challenges the wisdom of economic consolidation and works to advance policies that build strong local economies. She edits a monthly bulletin, the Hometown Advantage, and is the author of Big-Box Swindle: The True Cost of Mega-Retailers and the Fight for America's Independent Businesses, which was named one of the top ten business books of the year by Booklist.

This is an excerpt of a lecture delivered at the Bristol Schumacher Conference in Bristol, England. Full citations available here.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License

[fasttense]

28. Customers have become more sophisticated about the local label.

I sell at a local farmer's market and the customers have become much more savvy. No longer do they take your word that you have grown everything you are selling, they quiz you on how you grow it. They question you about pesticides and farming methods. They want details. It's hard to come up with the details they want to hear on the spot if you are only lying to them.

I welcome it but it's going to be hard to fool the consumer into thinking corporate grown food is local and grown using sustainable methods. Corporations wont be fooling too many people.

[AnneD]

53. Can't wait to get up to see my brother....

I will buy 'futures' in his herd. What I pay will more than cover feed and slaughter costs. I will pick up my meat in the fall, knowing who fed it, how it lived, and how it ended it's days. I do this with pork and chickens too. I buy directly from my brother, even help out when I come up there to visit. All our animals live pleasant happy lives and we are subsistence farmers only. We eat well and sell the excess (or barter with the dairy down the road). And veggies-my mouth just waters thinking about it.

COOP is the only way to go.

[Demeter]

19. 10 Ways the American Economy Is Built on Fraud

http://www.alternet.org/economy/146674/10_ways_the_american_economy_is_built_on_fraud

READ THEM AND WEEP

SPEAKING OF WEEPING--THIS WEEKEND ECONOMIST WAS A TEAR-JERKER. TAKE SOME DRAMAMINE AND CATCH UP ON REPORTS AT:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x533034

THE REPORTS OF AMERICA'S ECONOMIC DEATH WERE NOT GREATLY EXAGGERATED...

[AnneD]

20. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers Many a thinking Texan is in a Texas size funk today, esp if you live in Houston. We were already dealing with the decrease in tax revenues for basic city services, Nasa had a big hit last week and when Obama realized how unpopular this was and revamped things-he came back with jobs...but for Florida (what is this with kissing GOP ass-Houston is blue and the state has a real chance to flip). We have an oil slick that no matter what they say-will eventually hit the Texas coast and hurt our fishing and tourist industry. And if that isn't enough-the hurricane season starts in less than a month. The only bright spot in all this-a report on the quality of teachers in Houston stated that the quality of teaching is higher than the Superintendent would have the citizens of Houston believe. The number of poor teachers appears to be about 1% and that most of the problems appear to be in the teacher support (read administration). City leaders and business leaders are really putting pressure on the Superintendent to reconsider his plan to replace experienced teachers with new recruits from California. It is that last part that sticks in everyones craw. Maybe if these teachers had experience in LA school districts-you could argue for a job here. This really cuts into this guy's creditability . So far, HFT had be truthful and he has bee found wanting.

So my plan for this evening- go to my favorite oyster bar and order up a dozen of oysters on the half shelf-some crackers and sauce and kick back with a beer and enjoy the last of the Gulf oysters for a long time. Folks are buying seafood like crazy here because we know what happens next. THings are getting worse-no matter the happy talk coming out of DC anf WS. THe sad thing is that we have made this far, but one can only survive so many hits and we have had some awful sucker punches of late.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Demeter]

21. Morning, AnneD and all

My daughter got a ticket to see Obama's speech at U of M Saturday. She said it was awesome, and I'm sure it was. I would have had a hard time restraining myself...

but then his performance at the Correspondents' Dinner that evening! The GS "joke" was especially telling....if you can stand it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP5k4n6Wnc4

We've been deluged--it was dry for commencement, and rained like hell all the rest of the weekend. April showers bring May typhoons? Maybe once all the blossoms have been knocked off the trees, which were beautiful this year, it will stop.

And it has been a beautiful spring--the best since 1981 or 82, but a touch cooler at night than it ought to be. I think the volcanic plume must have made its way around the earth to our place...I shall have to research it.

I just wish Man would follow Nature and stop destroying it...or is that just the nature of Man?

[Demeter]

22. From Wikipedia

While it is suspected that major volcanic eruptions that coincide with cyclic solar minimum activity<81><82> could produce temporary global cooling or reduction in global temperature<83><84>, it is noted<85> that coincidentally the earth-facing side of the Sun was mostly blank with no sun spots since the day of 2nd eruption on 14 April 2010 until 29 April 2010.<86> Although the current unusually long solar minimum came to a close earlier this year, the current cycle may witness unusual weak solar maximum. Other research links volcanic eruptions including recent Icelandic activity to the solar cycle.<87> Most consider<88> the climate anomaly of the Year Without A Summer 1816 to have been caused by a combination of a historic low in solar activity with a volcanic winter event; the latter caused by a succession of major volcanic eruptions capped off by the Mount Tambora eruption of 1815, the largest known eruption in over 1,600 years.<89><90><91><92><93><94> One proposed volcanic winter happened c. 70,000 years ago following the supereruption of Lake Toba on Sumatra island in Indonesia.<95>

As of 15 April, the eruption was not large enough to have an effect on global temperatures like that of Mount Pinatubo and other major past volcanic eruptions.<96><97> One previous related sequence of eruptions of this volcano, beginning in 1821 is recorded as having lasted for over two years, however no single set of major eruptions is known to have lasted more than 'several days'. Should the eruption continue for a sufficient length of time at its current intensity, the potential remains for a temporary global cooling effect. By analogy, the Laki eruption has been linked with extreme weather events from severe hailstorms in Great Britain to the Mississippi River freezing at New Orleans.<98><99> Sulfate aerosols that reach the stratosphere catalyze the production of chlorine monoxide (ClO), which destroys ozone (O3). In the upper troposphere, the same aerosols become nuclei for cirrus clouds, which increase the Earth's albedo and thus alter its radiation balance.<100> Several eruptions during the past century have caused a decline in the average temperature at the Earth's surface of up to half a degree Celsius for periods of one to three years.<100><101>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_eruptions_of_Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull

[burf]

27. Perhaps the weather change is due to

the Chilean earthquake. There was some reporting a shift in the polar axis occured.

It has been unseasonably warm here (W/C MN) so far this spring, but appears that temps will be returning to normal this week.

[Dr.Phool]

29. I'm getting a big box of Cedar Key top neck clams this afternoon.

I'm going to gorge myself. They might not be around in another week.

[AnneD]

38. Folks around here have been eating seafood.....

like it is the Last Supper. Can't wait til this afternoon.

[Demeter]

41. A Fellow Board Member and I

are joking about raising fish in the three large ponds on the condo property...maybe cold water shrimp? We have catfish and big mouth bass and bluegills already...what a totally predictable, totally avoidable, Corporate crime against humanity!

They want to through their money around like people, they can face the firing squad, too.

[florida08]

23. Geithner to testify Thursday

(April 29)The Hill

Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner are on tap to testify next week on the system of bank-like institutions and markets that operated outside the U.S. regulatory structure.

The former Treasury head and current secretary will appear May 6 before the Fiscal Crisis Inquiry Commission on Capitol Hill.

The commission is holding two days of hearings -- May 5 & 6 -- on the "Shadow Banking System" and will include testimony from Christopher Cox and William Donaldson, former heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission, along with former executives of Bear Stearns.

Witnesses from Bear Stearns include Paul Friedman, former chief operating officer of fixed income; Samuel Molinaro Jr., former president and co-chief operating officer; Warren Spector, former president and co-chief operating officer; James Cayne, former chairman and CEO; Alan Schwartz, former CEO.

H. David Kotz, inspector general, SEC and Erik Sirri, former director Division of Trading and Markets, SEC, also will appear.

http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/banking-financial-institutions/95155-paulson-geithner-set-to-testify-before-panel-examining-financial-crisis

[Demeter]

26. The Blind Leading the Blind

About all Timmy could truthfully testify to is his incompetence to hold responsible position in anything.

Congress likes punching bags. This is an exercise in bile. When Congress starts criminal investigations--if they can--then we're talking business.

[Demeter]

24. Have Goldman Sachs charges opened floodgates?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8646728.stm


When news broke that Goldman Sachs had been charged with fraud by the US financial watchdog, its shares plunged, wiping about $11bn (£7.1bn) off the value of Wall Street's most famous shop. And that was before the UK's regulator announced it was planning an investigation of its own or that its German equivalent was said to be mulling its options.

On the face of it, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charge relates to a deal worth $1bn. That is the amount UK and German taxpayers have had to cough up to cover losses that their banks made on "Abacus 2007-AC1" - the sub-prime mortgage instrument that the watchdog alleges Goldman sold fraudulently. In the grand scheme of things, that $1bn liability is not a huge amount.

After all, the sub-prime mortgage market grew to some $1.3 trillion at the peak of the credit bubble in March 2007, while the £500m loss on Abacus that landed in the UK's lap is less than half a per cent of the government's total deficit of £167bn ($255bn) this year.

Goldman itself made profits of almost $3.5bn in the first three months of 2010 alone.

But the issues raised by the SEC's charges are a lot bigger than just this one collateralised debt obligation (CDO) - and throw open the sort of questions that worried investors when they rushed to sell shares in Goldman and other Wall Street giants.

The questions being asked are many:

After Abacus, how can clients trust Goldman or indeed any other Wall Street firm? Is Abacus just the tip of the iceberg?

How many other deals could be challenged by the SEC if it succeeds in prosecuting this case?

And what does it mean for investment banker practices which, up until now were assumed to be perfectly legitimate?

Litigation worries

One risk is that the SEC's move has opened the floodgates for a plethora of investors to sue the firm over money they lost on sub-prime debt they bought from it.

Failed insurance company AIG was quick to announce that it was considering doing just that.

"I expect everybody will jump on the bandwagon now," says Richard Bove, equity analyst at Rochdale Securities, who thinks that the cost to Goldman of defending lawsuits could be enormously expensive over the next few years.

And it is not just Goldman. JP Morgan, for example, took the unusual step of setting aside $2.3bn of cash in the first quarter to cover possible mortgage-related lawsuits. That is compared with total profits of $3.3bn.

JP Morgan's chief financial officer is particularly worried about litigation by the government-sponsored federal home loan banks.

Should Goldman be worried about the damage this case will cause to its reputation?

The SEC says that the Wall Street firm told Abacus investors what amounted to a lie about the interest in the deal of a hedge fund, Paulson & Co.

Goldman flatly denies this, although the firm does concede that the main purpose of the CDO was to help Paulson speculate on the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market - something the investors in Abacus were apparently unaware of...

[Po_d Mainiac]

33. The ambulance chaser ads are sure to follow n/t

[Robbien]

34. After listing all the fraud the article asks Should Goldman be worried

about damage to its reputation.

As if that is the biggest worry Goldman should have in a fraud investigation.

[Hugin]

36. I heard an absolutely nauseating Talk Radio show on Saturday.

Something about Mutual Funds...

Anyway, the guy made it sound like Goldman was the victim in all of this and that they should be more
careful about who they do business with... Because there's sharks all around.

I almost blew a gasket... :o Now, I'm back on my Corporate Media Free diet. That crap is worse than
HFCS!

[Demeter]

37. Well, you Can Always Pay Fines--They're So Small

and the bushes are full of likely psychopaths to replace employees jailed for their crimes.

But a Corporation lives and dies by its reputation! Because Congress is too lily-livered and too well-bought to declare the whole thing outlaw and dismantle it.

After all, see Obama's jibe about GS in the Correspondents Dinner. It put me off eating entirely.

[Festivito]

32. Debt: 04/29/2010 12,853,100,126,888.44 (DOWN 23,633,946,857.28) (Thu)

(Down large, when it could have been up on a Friday dump. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,336,007,537,907.99 + 4,517,092,588,980.45
DOWN 19,519,315,418.04 + DOWN 4,114,631,439.24

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,167,993 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,573.19.
A family of three owes $124,719.57. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 6,952,097,048.89.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,561,677,639.11.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,382,268,683.01.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 145 reports in 211 days of FY2010 averaging 6.51B$ per report, 4.47B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 997 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/29/2010 12,853,100,126,888.44 BHO (UP 2,226,223,077,975.36 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,943,271,123,376.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,631,724,929,063.96 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -

-11,744,801,399.01 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4362354&mesg_id=4362675

[Festivito]

57. Debt: 04/30/2010 12,948,738,915,856.86 (UP 95,638,788,968.42) (Fri)

(Up big. End of month. The largest rise since Obama took office. Past large jumps usually follow and precede sharp drops. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,434,434,625,613.16 + 4,514,304,290,243.70
UP 98,427,087,705.17 + DOWN 2,788,298,736.75

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,174,639 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,881.63.
A family of three owes $125,644.9. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 11,007,000,794.83.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,805,600,635.87.
The average for the last 31 days would be 8,521,549,002.45.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 146 reports in 212 days of FY2010 averaging 7.12B$ per report, 4.90B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 996 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 21.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/30/2010 12,948,738,915,856.86 BHO (UP 2,321,861,866,943.78 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,038,909,912,345.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,788,689,235,877.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -
04/30/2010 +098,427,087,705.17 ------------**********

86,897,480,591.22 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4365629&mesg_id=4365810

[Robbien]

35. Lehman Bankruptcy Charges: $2,100 for Limo Rides, $48 to Leave a Message

The Times detailed the work of Feinberg and Williamson in a story that also delved into the charges in the Lehman Brothers and other bankruptcies, including $2.54 charged by the Huron Consulting Group for “gum in airport.”

Charges by law firms in the two bankruptcy cases included more than $2,100 for late-night rides home by one partner at Jones Day, and $685 a night for one Weil lawyer’s week-long stay at the Sherry-Netherland hotel in Manhattan, the story says. Other charges by unnamed consultants and firms included more than $263,000 for photocopies in four months and $48 to leave one message.

But in a deal Feinberg worked out in the Lehman case, there are new limits. They include caps of $100 a day for ground transportation, allowed only after 8 p.m.; $500 a night for hotel rooms; 10 cents a page for photocopies; and $20 a meal for late dinners. Air travel must be coach.

Weil partner Harvey Miller told the Times the law firm’s legal skill in the Lehman case “saved 10,000 jobs and preserved the business itself.” He says the firm will abide by the rules and pick up the difference. But he didn’t sound happy about it.

http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/lehman_bankruptcy_charges_2100_for_limo_rides_48_to_leave_a_message/


Years later after we have been charged hundreds of millions in bankruptcy legal fees our crack feds finally say enough. The feds probably didn't recognize the fees were excessive because they do the same overcharging on their expense reimbursement statements.

[AnneD]

39. Instead of doing a new financial bill........

WHY DON'T THEY REINSTATE THE STEAGALL GLASS AMENDMENT.

Yes I meant caps because I am tired of them pussy footing around, giving away more of our rights and telling us it is reform. Admit it was a mistake to repeal the amendment-not all laws are bad. That ought to shut up the banks.

[Robbien]

40. Or better yet, enforce the laws we have the the books already

No one is following the laws because there is no one enforcing them.

Any new laws will be ignored just as well.

[Demeter]

44. Hence the FRSP Movement

Gaining steam, got an edge and well-oiled!

[AnneD]

49. Knitting at the ready

:thumbsup:

[Robbien]

42. About Time!!: U.S. Trustee appoints examiner to probe Tribune's LBO

May 3 (Reuters) - A U.S. Trustee has appointed an examiner to investigate whether the 2007 leveraged buyout (LBO) of Tribune Co (TRBCQ.PK) led by real estate developer Sam Zell left the media company insolvent.

The examiner, Kenneth Klee, is an attorney at Los Angeles-based lawfirm Klee, Tuchin, Bogdanoff & Stern LLP. He also teaches bankruptcy law at the University of California at Los Angeles.

In April, Tribune and its creditors agreed to appoint an examiner to determine if Tribune's management, board of directors, lenders and advisors were liable.

Bondholders have blasted the deal as "virtually no money down LBO" and blamed the deal for Tribune's bankruptcy and their investment losses.

The junior bondholders, who hold $1.2 billion of debt, have said their best hope of a recovery from the bankruptcy lies in disallowing billions of dollars of senior claims.

They are seeking to prove the senior lenders extended loans to finance the leveraged buyout, knowing it would render the company insolvent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE6420IK20100503?type=marketsNews


Just about every single LBO which occurred in the last two or three years rendered the company insolvent and made certain people very very rich.

[Demeter]

43. I Thought That Was The Whole Point of the LBO

"Just about every single LBO which occurred in the last two or three years rendered the company insolvent and made certain people very very rich."

It's just fraud any way you slice it.

[Robbien]

46. WaPo wants bloggers to write for them for free

From Athenae from First Draft:

http://www.first-draft.com/2010/04/the-washington-post-tries-to-eat-the-blogosphere-and-chokes.html


What a bunch of snobby, smug, entitled, presumptuous ASSHOLES:

Five weeks ago, I received an unsolicited offer from the Washington Post. They asked if they could post my picture and biography on their website and link to every new blog post appearing here if I agreed to produce regular original content for them at their request. I turned them down. Why?

Because they wanted me to work for them for nothing.

The Post is organizing a “local blogging network” linking to selected blogs from their website and asking bloggers to submit original content, which would be edited by them. The Post’s rights to that content would be enforceable under a written agreement.

Scout sent this to me. My blood pressure has been so nice and LOW for weeks now. This is outrageous and sad and depressing and insane and stupid in all the ways shit like this is always stupid.

Why would the Post even think bloggers would agree to something like this? Because. Because they think they're the Post, and you should aspire to be them, and if you're not aspiring to be them you should at least aspire for them to piss on you as they walk by.

Because MPW should just fall all over themselves to kiss the Post's ring, right? They should be grateful, I mean, my God, that the Post would even NOTICE them? It's like an ant being smiled upon by a goddess! They shouldn't ask for money from a multi-million-dollar news corporation! They should just be honored to be allowed to share the same pixels as the Post's actual staff writers.

After all, we're just untutored filthy Internet people out here. None of us are trained journalists (except those who are) and none of us know enough about our livelihoods to value work properly (except those who do) and none of us have any idea how to build our own goddamn incomes (except those making more money than Washington Post writers) without being adopted by Benevolent Media Daddy and shown the ropes as, you know, a favor. I mean, we really ought to pay THEM for the right to breathe their air!

And link to them. We should totally pay to link to them.

Especially since their traffic blows:

Google Subscribers, 4/19/10

MPW: 337
Post, Maryland News Articles: 324
Post, Editorials Page (All): 208
Post, Maryland Politics Blog: 68

I'm sorry, but this whole thing is starting to remind me of that guy who swans up to you in a bar and tells you how lucky you'd be if he decided to take you home, and the whole time, his fly is open and his shirt tail's poking through.

Congratulations, Washington Post. You've managed to fail harder than the Chicago Tribune. I didn't think there was any room left under that bar but you've limbo-ed right beneath it. Go you!

Schmucks.

A.

[Demeter]

56. That was the plan with our local rag

The Fundies put the local 174 year old paper out of business, and brought out a Thursday and Sunday and website "paper", and they thought people would fall over themselves to submit copy for their website. Don't know and don't care--I read the paper only while the car is in the shop, so I'm a month behind. The online site I almost never touch, mostly because it sucks technically and journalistically.

[Demeter]

47. Pumped Up 150 Pts on Nothing

lookslike the steam is coming out of today's bubble now, though. Must have been a 3 martini lunch today.

[AnneD]

50. Sort of like...

Obama's Nobel Peace Prize.


I am begining to suspect someone pissed in my coffee this morning!

[Demeter]

54. I didn't Even Get Coffee With It

[Robbien]

48. Billionaire Asks: ‘Vote For Me, I Shorted Your House’

Billionaire Jeffrey Greene’s announcement that he’s running for a Florida Senate seat adds to the growing ranks of super-rich running for office this summer.

And like the other wealthy, self-funded candidates, such as Meg Whitman in California and Rick Scott in Florida, his money is a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing because he can spend tens of millions of dollars to get his name out there. It’s a curse because his opponents can say he’s trying to buy democracy.

Yet Mr. Greene’s campaign has a special hurdle: the source of his latest fortune. As detailed in my colleague Gregory Zuckerman’s book, “The Greatest Trade Ever,” Mr. Greene made hundreds of millions of dollars by shorting the subprime market, ala John Paulson. (As the “Trade” recounts, the two were friends and Mr. Greene got the idea from Mr. Paulson).

Normally, the intricacies of the credit-default swap market would be of little interest to voters.
And Mr. Greene sounds like a refreshing candidate, highlighting his outsider status and saying his money allows him to avoid special interests.

But this is Florida, one of the epicenters of the housing crash. Will voters pull the lever for a guy who made money by shorting their homes? (Granted, without knowing what securities Greene bet against, it’s difficult to know if some of the mortgages were from Florida, but I’m sure someone in opposition research is trying to pull the data).

What’s more, in the post-Abacus age, the shorts like Mr. Greene who saw the crash coming and bet wisely are suddenly being made to be the bad guys.

I’m not saying he should or shouldn’t be elected because of his bets. His campaign spokesman
says Mr. Greene was “insuring and protecting his assets and the jobs he’d created,” and that he spent years building up his California real-estate business.

But at a time when foreclosures in south Florida are up 71 % over last year, voters may not be in the mood to further reward a man who likely made millions from their losses.

http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2010/05/03/billionaire-asks-vote-for-me-i-shorted-your-house/