STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 7

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 7, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 6, 2010

Dow... 10,520.32 -347.80 (-3.31%)
Nasdaq... 2,319.64 -82.65 (-3.56%)
S&P 500... 1,128.15 -37.75 (-3.35%)
Gold future... 1,200 +3.10 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.39 -0.15 (-4.27%)
30-Year Bond 4.20 -0.19 (-4.22%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Unemployment Rate Apr
Briefing.com 9.8%
Consensus 9.7%
Prior 9.7%

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Apr
Briefing.com 200K
Consensus 187K
Prior 162K

08:30 Average Workweek Apr
Briefing.com 34.0
Consensus 34.0
Prior 34.0

08:30 Hourly Earnings Apr
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior -0.1%

15:00 Consumer Credit Mar
Briefing.com -$5.0B
Consensus -$3.9B
Prior -$11.5B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Robbien]

41. Unemployment rate went back up to 9.9%

290,000 jobs were added but of those 290,000, 188,000 were as a result of the Birth/Death rate adjustment. 66,000 jobs are the temporary jobs from the census program.

So real jobs added were only 36,000.

[Dr.Phool]

46. So much for that big rosy jobs report they were predicting.

[Robbien]

48. You underestimate the media's ability to whore

They are pushing the 290,000 figure celebrating that it is more than the 190,000 estimate.

Time to par-tay

Even the WH press came out and said the report, "shows the strongest signs yet of healing in the labor market."

No mention of the increase in unemployment rate, nor the fact the jobs number is mainly bogus B/D adjustments.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers above $77 as euro steadies after plunge

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $77 a barrel Friday in Asia, halting an 11 percent sell-off this week as the euro strengthened against the dollar.

Crude prices have fallen from an 18-month high of $87.15 that was hit Monday. That level was reached as the dollar surged against the euro amid investor concern a $142 billion bailout package for Greece won't be enough to keep the debt crisis from spreading to other European countries.

Plunging global stock markets have also weighed on oil prices. Crude traders often look to equities as a barometer of overall investor sentiment, and the Dow Jones industrial average fell 3.2 percent Thursday.

In other Nymex trading in June contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.115 a gallon, and gasoline held at $2.157 a gallon. Natural gas was little changed at $3.926 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Fears intensify about Greek crisis' impact on US

WASHINGTON – The U.S. economic recovery is on shakier ground.

The growing European debt crisis has sent stock markets on a wild ride. A weaker European economy could sap demand for U.S. exports and hurt sales by U.S. companies in Europe. U.S. banks that hold European government debt also could cut back on lending to conserve cash.

But the jitters over Europe remained and the selling spread to Asia on Friday. Markets in Japan, South Korea and China all posted steep losses, with Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average closing down 3.1 percent.

Vitner and other economists worry that Europe's debt crisis could tip the 16 countries that use the euro currency back into a recession. The euro area comprises the second-largest economy in the world, after the United States. And as in the United States, its economy has been slowly recovering from recession.

The likelihood that the U.S. would fall back into recession remains low, economists say. Still, a falling U.S. stock market could unnerve consumers and investors and cause cutbacks in spending. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100507/ap_on_bi_ge/us_global_financial_crisis

[Ghost Dog]

50. UK Pound falls on hung parliament, borrowing costs up.

The pound has fallen against both the euro and the dollar after it became clear that the UK general election had produced no clear majority.

Sterling was down three cents against the dollar at $1.4633, and down 2.6 cents against the euro at 1.1478 euros.

The markets are concerned that a weak government might be unable to reduce the UK's high budget deficit quickly.

However, ratings agency Moody's said the outcome of the election would have no bearing on the UK's credit rating.

The agency said it was assuming an incoming government would be able "to muster convincing parliamentary support for a fiscal adjustment that is no looser nor slower than was outlined by all three political parties" in the run-up to the election.

Another leading ratings agency, Standard & Poor's, also said it had not changed its view on the UK in light of the election result.

UK shares fell in early trading, with the FTSE 100 down 1.6% after heavy falls on Wall Street on Thursday, before recovering by mid-afternoon to be 0.9% lower.

The cost of government borrowing also increased.

/.. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10101963.stm

[Ghost Dog]

53. EU Leaders discuss financial reform

Eurozone leaders are preparing to meet in Brussels to try to reform rules for those sharing the single currency.

...

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have said they are "fully committed to preserve the solidity, stability and unity of the eurozone". They want rules that limit government spending to be enforced.

On Friday, German politicians approved the country's contribution to a European Union and IMF bail-out for debt-laden Greece.

...

In a letter to France's Le Monde newspaper, Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy set out several initiatives to try to stabilise financial markets by forcing eurozone countries to take a tighter grip of their finances.

The recommendations include:

* Stricter monitoring of eurozone member debt
* A financial sector bailout fund paid for by banks
* A clampdown on credit rating agencies

...

Also speaking ahead of the summit, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said he would do "whatever necessary to ensure that financial markets are not a playground for speculation".

/... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10102642.stm

[ozymandius]

4. Fed audit proposal gains momentum in Senate

WASHINGTON – Following last-minute adjustments, a proposal to audit the Federal Reserve that the Obama administration once opposed was on the verge of passing the Senate as it attracted broad support from conservatives and liberals alike.

The administration withdrew its objections to the proposal Thursday, saying it was satisfied that the audit would not interfere with the Fed's authority to set monetary policy.

The one-time audit would focus on the Fed's emergency lending to financial institutions in the months leading up to and after the 2008 financial crisis. At its peak, at the end of 2008, the Fed's lending totaled $1.16 trillion.

The Fed has become one of the targets of public anger in the aftermath of the financial crisis, blamed for not seeing the meltdown coming and for having what some perceive as too cozy a relationship with the nation's largest institutions. The audit measure, proposed by Vermont independent Bernie Sanders, has populist support from across the political spectrum, from tea party activists to liberals and labor organizations.

Sanders said he wants to see if there were conflicts of interest involving the institutions that received the money and members of the boards of the Fed's regional banks. Moreover, Sanders said the audit should examine whether financial institutions received no-interest loans from the Fed that they then used to buy interest-bearing government bonds.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100506/ap_on_bi_ge/us_financial_overhaul

[Demeter]

8. Another Flinch from Bernanke and Summers and Rahmbo

Bastards.

I think popular opinion is onto these crooks.

[ozymandius]

5. Stocks Tumble as Debt Concern Spurs Electronic Rout

Stocks slumped across the world and commodities plunged on concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied after U.S. stocks dropped by the most in a year, while German bunds gained as investors sought a haven in fixed income.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.9 percent at 9:17 a.m. in London, after touching its lowest intraday level in almost three months. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index slipped 3.1 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.7 percent. Copper and aluminum tumbled, while the 10-year bund yield declined 4 basis points to 2.75 percent. The rout in U.S. stocks briefly erased more than $1 trillion in U.S. market value as the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 9.2 percent, before closing 3.2 percent lower.

The MSCI World Index dropped for a fourth day, losing 0.8 percent. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index has retreated 11 percent from this year’s high on April 15. Credit Agricole SA led European bank shares lower after saying its corporate and investment bank has 2.4 billion euros at risk in Greek assets. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc slid 5.7 percent after reporting a first- quarter loss.

The yield on Greece’s 10-year note climbed 64 basis points to 12.3 percent, driving the yield premium to German debt to a record 905 basis points. Yields on Spanish, Italian and Portuguese debt also rose, extending a jump in borrowing costs after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday held interest rates at a record low of 1 percent and said the bank didn’t discuss whether to purchase government bonds to stem the region’s debt crisis.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said they will examine “unusual trading” that contributed to the plunge. Two people with direct knowledge of the matter said regulators plan to examine whether securities professionals triggered the selloff or exploited it for profit. The Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. said it will cancel trades of stocks that moved more than 60 percent.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-07/stocks-dive-worldwide-on-european-debt-concern-u-s-futures-bunds-rally.html

[ozymandius]

11. Yves Smith: On the Fat Fingered Trade and Market Freakout

We’ll know in due course, now that an investigation is underway, why the equity markets in the US went into complete freefall for about twenty minutes, with the Dow dropping 998 points. Per Bloomberg:

Larry Leibowitz, chief operating officer of NYSE Euronext, said trades sent to electronic networks fueled the drop. While the first half of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 998.5-point plunge probably reflected normal trading, the decline snowballed as orders went to venues lacking liquidity to match them, he said.

Yves here. Um, he seems to be saying there were more sellers than buyers, which we already knew. The idea that a fat-fingered trade out of Citi was the cause has been denied by the bank. The downdraft did have the look of a monster sell order, but the more credible explanation is that it was either a sudden rise in yen or the euro hitting the magic number 1.225 to the dollar that set off algorithmic traders. And enough of them look to similar indicators and technical levels that it isn’t hard to see this as the son of program trading, mindless computer-driven selling when the right triggers are hit.

But another side effect of today’s equity market gyrations is further distrust in the markets, particularly by retail buyers. I am told that various retail trading platforms were simply not operating during the acute downdraft and rebound. I couldn’t access hoi polloi Bloomberg news or data pages then either. The idea that the pros could trade (even if a lot of those trades are cancelled) while the little guy was shut out reinforces the perception that the markets are treacherous and the odds are stacked in favor of the big players (even though we all understand that, it isn’t supposed to be this blatant).

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/05/on-the-fat-fingered-trade-and-market-freakout.html

[girl gone mad]

23. I heard countless reports yesterday of retail investors being unable to trade..

limit orders not being filled despite stocks trading well below the limits, traders with L3 watching every one of their orders get outbid by $.01, etc.

It's as if that thin facade of fair play completely vanished and everyone got a glimpse behind Wall Street's curtain, only instead of some pleasant elderly gentleman pushing buttons, they discovered "soylent green is people!"

[JDPriestly]

63. Did this trigger the stops of a lot of smaller traders?

Will their stop-trades be cancelled? How will that work?

[ozymandius]

12. Algorithmic Trading and Price Volatility

Yesterday's dramatic decline and rapid recovery in stock prices may have been triggered by an erroneous trade, but could not have occurred on this scale if it were not for the increasingly widespread use of high frequency algorithmic trading.

Algorithmic trading can be based on a variety of different strategies but they all share one common feature: by using market data as an input, they seek to exploit failures of (weak form) market efficiency. Such strategies are necessarily technical and, for reasons discussed in an earlier post, are most effective when they are rare. But they have become increasingly common recently, and now account for three-fifths of total volume in US equities:

Algorithms have become a common feature of trading, not only in shares but in derivatives such as options and futures. Essentially software programs, they decide when, how and where to trade certain financial instruments without the need for any human intervention... markets have come to be dominated by “high-frequency traders” who rely on the perfect marriage of technology and speed. They use algorithms to trade at ultra-fast speeds, seeking to profit from fleeting opportunities presented by minute price changes in markets. According to Tabb Group, a consultancy, algorithmic and high-frequency trading accounts for more than 60 per cent of activity in US equity markets.

I would be very interested to know whether the transfer of wealth that took place yesterday as prices plunged and then recovered resulted in major losses or gains for the funds using algorithmic trading strategies. I expect that those engaged in cross-market or spot-futures arbitrage would have profited handsomely, at the expense of those relying on some form of momentum based strategies. If so, then the cancellation of trades will simply set the stage for a recurrence of these events sooner rather than later.

http://rajivsethi.blogspot.com/2010/05/algorithmic-trading-and-price.html

[ozymandius]

14. MUST HEAR: Panic And Loathing From The S&P 500 Pits

This audio clip is what panic sounds like.

[AnneD]

33. The pitch perfect theme song for today.....

the theme from Jaws.

http://www.entertonement.com/clips/vmrpmhwpmq--Jaws-Theme-Song

Our commentary...

http://www.entertonement.com/clips/gkqwnkxtpq--Well-this-is-not-a-boat-accidentRichard-Dreyfuss-Jaws-Matt-Hooper-

/www.entertonement.com/clips/rbjsctgrkr--Bites-you-on-the-assRichard-Dreyfuss-Jaws-Matt-Hooper-

[Demeter]

6. Good Morning, Ozy and All!

I've been thinking about yesterday's panic.

Given what I understand, I think the case has been made that High Frequency Trading--computer-generated and operated trading--must go.

There isn't any amount of profit in the world that justifies letting this instability continue. And there's no way to enforce stability other than banning this technique for manipulating the market.

And if this one goes away, then other techniques of manipulation can be discovered and banned. In fact, most of them become infeasible without the speed generated by computer programs.

[ozymandius]

10. I agree.

Pick the low-hanging fruit first. High frequency trading is pretty dang low. Any irrationality that can be squeezed out of the system, that is by its very nature irrational, reinforces the clarity and reliable integrity of the system.

[Ghost Dog]

18. The Day The Market Almost Died (Courtesy Of High Frequency Trading)

... In 20 minutes the market showed that it is as broken as it was at the nadir of the market crash. Through its inactivity to investigate the market structure, the SEC has made things a million times worse, as HFT-trading seminars for idiots are now rampant. HFT killed over 12 months of hard fought propaganda by the likes of CNBC which has valiantly tried to restore faith in our broken capital markets. They have now failed in that task too. After today investors will have little if any faith left in the US stocks, assuming they had any to begin with. We need to purge the equity market structure of all liquidity-taking parasitic players. We must start today with High Frequency Trading.

/... http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x78454

[AnneD]

22. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. What's going on here kids. I leave you kids alone for the day and look at the mess.

I had to do State Reports for the end of the year and afterward a group of us Nurses got together to kick off Nurses Week at our favorite watering hole. The highlight was a white elephant gift exchange (which was a hit). The rule was you could not buy the gift and it had to be under 25 lbs. We had pharm pens,drug co. stickies, but yours truly won the prize. I used shredded discontinued forms as packing. Ah I can hear the humming now. To my fellow brothers and sisters in arms out there-A sincere wish for a good week and a thank you for all your hard work.

1. Let those who are in favor with their stars
2. Of public honour and proud titles boast,
3. Whilst I, whom fortune of such triumph bars
4. Unlook'd for joy in that I honour most.
5. Great princes' favourites their fair leaves spread
6. But as the marigold at the sun's eye,
7. And in themselves their pride lies buried,
8. For at a frown they in their glory die.
9. The painful warrior famoused for fight,
10. After a thousand victories once foiled,
11. Is from the book of honour razed quite,
12. And all the rest forgot for which he toiled:
13. Then happy I, that love and am beloved,
14. Where I may not remove nor be removed.

http://www.shakespeares-sonnets.com/xxvcomm.htm


That was one bright spot in a difficult week.

The ban on off shore drilling will hit us hard as Houston supplies manpower, technology, and tools. I am really pissed with this administration and their ecumenic recovery plan. Houston took a really hard hit in the 80's with the S&L scandals and the drop in oil prices ( from manipulation). We realized that all our eggs were in a few baskets. The city has worked very hard to diversify. It has severed us well in this down turn. But in the last few weeks we have had one bad break after another. Now I don't know about you, but we have not seen any signs of recovery-we have just been holding on.

When the dems stooped being dems-they have been killing the party green shoots. It will be a harder sell here in Houston the coming election cycle-and Houston is a liberal blue island in a sea of red.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[anakie]

29. Happy Nurses Week

you really are the backbone of the health industry.

Peace

[AnneD]

32. Nurses are indeed the backbone of health care....

too bad we are experiencing a bad case of osteoporosis.

[DemReadingDU]

35. Ditto, Happy Nurses Week!

:toast:

[girl gone mad]

44. A good start would be not allowing any of yesterday's trades to be canceled.

The industry has lobbied against any reform and consistently denied that HFT systems posed any kind of danger or risk. Despite being warned of this very outcome, firms continued to employ these algorithms. It strikes me as completely absurd that these traders are allowed to reap enormous profits off of less sophisticated retail and institutional investors using such tactics, but when their manipulations cause them harm, they get an automatic do-over.

[ozymandius]

7. Senate Rejects Republican Consumer Plan in Financial-Rules Bill

The Senate today rejected a Republican proposal to create a consumer division at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. while leaving powers to police banks for credit- card and mortgage lending abuses with existing regulators.

The Senate voted 61-38 today to reject the proposal opposed by Democrats and President Barack Obama. Democrats want a new consumer protection bureau in the Federal Reserve to have authority to enforce consumer-protection rules at banks with more than $10 billion in assets.

Obama’s plan to create an independent Consumer Financial Protection Agency was the main sticking point in negotiations between Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, and Senator Christopher Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who leads the panel, in their efforts to draft bipartisan financial-overhaul legislation.

Shelby’s amendment would have put a consumer division at the FDIC, the regulator that insures deposits at U.S. banks. Under the provision, existing regulators would have retained authority to police banks for compliance with consumer- protection rules.

The Shelby amendment would have let federal regulators retain power to override state consumer protections as they apply to national banks. Dodd’s bill would increase states’ authority.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-06/senate-rejects-republican-shelby-s-consumer-plan-in-financial-rules-bill.html

[Demeter]

9. This is NOT Good

The Fed should keep their rules off the American people. They can't even use the powers they have responsibly.

[Ghost Dog]

16. Senate Votes For Wall Street; Megabanks To Remain Behemoths

A move to break up major Wall Street banks failed Thursday night by a vote of 61 to 33.

/... http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4371527

[ozymandius]

19. Beyond words...

I cannot express my disgust with the U.S. Senate. This institution is corrupt, bribed, intimidated - what have you. Those who voted to keep things the way they are deserve whatever disaster, either electoral or financial, is coming to them.

[AnneD]

24. I know folks that are voting....

anti incumbent....NO MATTER WHAT.

[burf]

26. So, I see my senator

Amy Klobuchar, voted against the amendment. Then I take a look-see over at OpenSecrets.org and lo and behold what do I find?

Top 20 Industries contributing to Campaign Cmte

Total Indiv PACs
Securities & Investment $224,325 $208,325 $16,000
Commercial Banks $119,160 $89,160 $30,000
Misc Finance $90,700 $88,700 $2,000

The FIRE (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate) contributed $741.5k to her campaign from 2005 to 2010.
I guess they are getting their moneys worth.

[Dr.Phool]

30. Oh, that's just silly.

As many people on DU have repeatedly pointed out to me, those are individual contributions, from individuals who just happen to work in those industries!

They would never coordinate their contributions, would they? Their employers would never tell their employees to donate to this asshole, because they'll take care of us, would they? They would never, ever bundle contributions, would they?

Do you think that upstanding industries, such as banks, protection rackets, and property swindlers would resort to tactics like Outhouse Steaks, and force their employees to contribute?

That's just the dumbest thing I've ever heard of.







I don't really need the sarcasm thingy, do I?

[florida08]

28. ditto

[Ghost Dog]

13. Greek fears spook global markets

ATHENS (AFP) – World stock markets tumbled Friday as fears grew over the fallout from Greece's debt crisis, despite the approval by lawmakers in Athens of savage belt-tightening measures in the face of widespread unrest.

European stock markets dived at the start of trade in the wake of a shock overnight slide on Wall Street.

Paris slumped 3.0 percent, Frankfurt shed 1.99 percent and London dived 1.83 percent, as investors also reacted to an unclear outcome in Britain's general election.

Madrid meanwhile dropped 2.07 percent, Lisbon declined 2.98 percent and Milan lost 2.48 percent.

Markets in Asia were lower, but recovered from earlier sharp falls.

Tokyo tumbled 3.10 percent, or 331.10 points, to end at 10,364.59 and Sydney was 2.02 percent, or 92.5 points, lower at 4,480.7.

Hong Kong was 0.70 percent lower by the break and Shanghai was 0.86 percent down.

The region's traders took their cue from a stunning sell-off in US shares, which saw a record drop of almost 1,000 points, or about nine percent, before they recouped more than half those losses on Thursday.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100507/wl_afp/greecefinanceeconomy_20100507074742;_ylt=As5vbX11tvUQMB9dj5.n0LaFOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTJyZWo3ZGxkBGFzc2V0A2FmcC8yMDEwMDUwNy9ncmVlY2VmaW5hbmNlZWNvbm9teQRwb3MDNARzZWMDeW5fcGFnaW5hdGVfc3VtbWFyeV9saXN0BHNsawNncmVla2ZlYXJzc3A-

[Ghost Dog]

15. Contagion fears jolt Asian markets

HONG KONG (AFP) – Eurozone debt fears engulfed Asian markets Friday, after US shares saw a spectacular intraday fall on deepening concerns that Greece's debt crisis would spread through Europe.

In an effort to bolster markets in Tokyo, the Bank of Japan offered to provide over 20 billion dollars in liquidity to financial institutions as stocks tumbled for a second successive day.

As markets convulsed and the euro hovered near 14-month lows, finance ministers of the Group of Seven industrialised nations were to hold an emergency conference call on the crisis, Japan's Finance Minister Naoto Kan said.

"The reason for today's fall is what everybody knows -- Greece," said Hideaki Higashi, a strategist at SMBC Friend Securities.

"The market is factoring in the possibility that this Greek problem will spread to Spain and Portugal."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100507/bs_afp/asiafinancestocksforex_20100507070911;_ylt=ApDe8Hlb3l.LJ0vUpRXftzWFOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTJ1NWNiZTBxBGFzc2V0A2FmcC8yMDEwMDUwNy9hc2lhZmluYW5jZXN0b2Nrc2ZvcmV4BHBvcwMxNgRzZWMDeW5fcGFnaW5hdGVfc3VtbWFyeV9saXN0BHNsawNjb250YWdpb25mZWE-

[ozymandius]

17. Paul Krugman: A Money Too Far

So, is Greece the next Lehman? No. It isn’t either big enough or interconnected enough to cause global financial markets to freeze up the way they did in 2008. Whatever caused that brief 1,000-point swoon in the Dow, it wasn’t justified by actual events in Europe.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that Greece’s problems are deeper than Europe’s leaders are willing to acknowledge,... and they’re shared, to a lesser degree, by other European countries. Many observers now expect the Greek tragedy to end in default; I’m increasingly convinced that they’re too optimistic, that default will be accompanied or followed by departure from the euro.

If it happens, it will play something like Argentina in 2001, which had a supposedly permanent, unbreakable peg to the dollar. Ending that peg was considered unthinkable for the same reasons leaving the euro seems impossible: even suggesting the possibility would risk crippling bank runs. But the bank runs happened anyway... This left the door open for devaluation, and Argentina eventually walked through that door.

If something like that happens in Greece, it will send shock waves through Europe, possibly triggering crises in other countries. But unless European leaders are able and willing to act far more boldly than anything we’ve seen so far, that’s where this is heading.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/07/opinion/07krugman.html

[girl gone mad]

21. Krugman seems to get it, at last.

Many here would do well to take his point on California vs Greece to heart.

[ozymandius]

20. Good morning. It's time to go to work.

:donut: :donut: :donut: I hope you have an easy day.

:hi:

[Festivito]

25. Debt: 05/05/2010 12,943,495,066,136.13 (UP 2,541,131,343.23) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,430,747,249,336.39 + 4,512,747,816,799.74
UP 598,834,211.91 + UP 1,942,297,131.32

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,207,870 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,860.17.
A family of three owes $125,580.52. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 6,823,304,599.29.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,231,200,192.79.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 149 reports in 217 days of FY2010 averaging 6.94B$ per report, 4.76B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 991 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/05/2010 12,943,495,066,136.13 BHO (UP 2,316,618,017,223.05 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,033,666,062,624.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,738,654,897,962.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -
04/30/2010 +098,427,087,705.17 ------------**********
05/03/2010 -004,329,381,263.93 -- Mon
05/04/2010 +000,043,170,775.25 ------------*******
05/05/2010 +000,598,834,211.91 ------------********

82,632,539,185.58 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4370127&mesg_id=4370139

[Festivito]

90. Debt: 05/06/2010 12,932,913,325,200.66 (DOWN 10,581,740,935.47) (Thu)

(Down a lot. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,415,799,575,685.44 + 4,517,113,749,515.22
DOWN 14,947,673,650.95 + UP 4,365,932,715.48

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,214,516 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,825.05.
A family of three owes $125,475.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 6,084,617,643.27.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,664,873,526.50.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 150 reports in 218 days of FY2010 averaging 6.82B$ per report, 4.69B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 990 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/06/2010 12,932,913,325,200.66 BHO (UP 2,306,036,276,287.58 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,023,084,321,688.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,712,962,281,726.83 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -
04/30/2010 +098,427,087,705.17 ------------**********
05/03/2010 -004,329,381,263.93 -- Mon
05/04/2010 +000,043,170,775.25 ------------*******
05/05/2010 +000,598,834,211.91 ------------********
05/06/2010 -014,947,673,650.95 -

28,355,922,008.98 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4371779&mesg_id=4371813

[UpInArms]

27. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

84.495 -0.399 (-0.51%)

Daily Sound Bites 05.07

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-05-07-0906-Daily_Sound_Bites_05_07.html



...more...

Will Market Panic Leverage or Dampen the Dollar’s Reponse to NFPs?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2010-05-07-0218-Will_Market_Panic_Leverage_or.html

While the interest rate announcements and GDP reports have grown in prominence as market moving economic releases; the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release is still considered the dollar’s top event risk. However, as we have seen for months now, the data’s influence over the currency is not as straightforward as simple economics would suggest. Not only is it unclear whether this data will play more on the recovery of activity and interest rates in the US; but the greenback’s own attachment to risk trends has been thrown into doubt. Furthermore, a sharp increase in volatility and the return of “crisis” concerns has cast a shadow over the markets. This could prove a vital driver for an already active currency; or it may be completely overlooked.

The Data

Sometimes, the volatility of the NFPs release can sometimes overwhelm the fundamental meaning behind the data. At its roots, this indicator measures the net monthly change in employment. As a gauge for economic activity, an increase in jobs translates into an overall increase in net wealth and confidence that in turn leads to consumer spending. Considering domestic consumption accounts for approximately four-fifths of growth; this data is a catalyst for something much bigger. However, skepticism over the survey and its meaning for the economy has grown. Through the past two years, the US economy has shed over 8 million jobs. Not only does labor expansion need to absorb these out of work Americans; but there is a further influx of new graduates and immigrants that will press national payrolls even further. Therefore, modest monthly changes simply may not cut it for powering a true recovery. What’s more, the surprise factor of the positive reading has played out with March’s reading.



Perhaps a better assessment of the situation can be ascertained from the unemployment rate. Having held to 9.7 percent for three consecutive months now, this reading has not progressed much in its pull back from 26-year highs set not long ago. Considering the net increases needed each month to meaningfully alter this mass of jobless, the time frame for this sector contributing to a momentous phase of the recovery seems well beyond the horizon.



Furthermore, the consumer’s contribution to economic activity is a net of wage expansion and overall employment. While employers have stopped cutting jobs and are slowly rehiring; they continue to lower wages in order to cut costs. Through March, the annual pace of wage growth cooled to 1.8 percent – the slowest pace in recent history.



...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

31. Where is the bottom?? Maybe that should be, IS there a bottom?

The first question led to a little exchange amongst florida08, Dr. Phool, and myself, which kind of closed out the night with the following:


Dr.Phool (1000+ posts) Thu May-06-10 09:37 PM
Response to Original message
167. If anybody is still up, it's almost 12:30am
Everything in Asia is tanking right now.

Nasdaq futures are waaaay down. Dow is way up.

When I posted my first observation that the Dow was off 320pts, I didn't think it was anything significant. We've seen plenty of that over the last 3 years, and it's not an unusual event. So, I posted a little snark in GD-P for all the cheerleaders and Kool-aid drinkers, titled "Who shit in the punchbowl? Dow down 321 points." Minutes later the shit hit the fan.

Something is up. The Dow finished lower than the -321 when I posted. I think that is the natural drop. I think the coming weeks will get a lot worse. Look for a rise tomorrow on a phoney-assed jobs report. I think after that, fasten your seat belts.

To quote Dickhead Dennis Miller, "That's just my opinion. I could be wrong".


Tansy_Gold (1000+ posts) Thu May-06-10 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #167
168. Not quite 10:00 here in AZ, and some thoughts
What's the bubble this time? I mean, we've had housing and dot.coms and so on, but they were all based in some kind of reality. Is the bubble we're looking at now much more akin to a black hole, a nothingness that just sucks itself and everything around it in?

I've never really been scared watching some of the past plunges, and it sure isn't because I'm in any way insulated against catastrophe.

But this bubble is so full of nothing that its implosion may trigger something really ugly.

Or is that just my exhaustion talking?



Tansy Gold, who is yawning but doesn't really want to go to bed because she might miss something. . . .

Dr.Phool (1000+ posts) Thu May-06-10 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #168
169. I think you described it right.
A black hole. Nothing underneath to support it. In fact, it's going to suck everything within it's sphere of influence in.

It's gonna get ugly. Almost everyone's chance to retire is invested in this monster. Jobs are STILL getting shipped overseas, or to Mexico. H1-B's are still taking jobs from people. Where does it stop? When does our Congress and Senate say finally, "Enough is a fucking nuff"! Hint: They don't. Porky Pig Landrieu is calling for more drilling, and low limits to oil company liability.

I've had it.




I think it's become fairly clear that whatever triggered yesterday's brief freefall, the computers took over from Dr. Forbin. Was it because someone tried to sell or buy 15 billion shares of P&G when there are only 2 billion to be had? Does that put the whole NYSE into a closed mobius loop from which it can't escape? Maybe the bottom isn't hen the DJIA hits flat zero, but somewhere beyond that?

If we're having to bail out banks that then turn around and "repay" the loans a few months later, how desperate were they in truth? How much was covered up? How much was stolen? WE DON'T KNOW AND THEY WON'T TELL US, because as long as they can keep the numbers in negative territory, they can continue to blackmail us into giving them more. At that rate, we will NEVER reach "the bottom." NEVER.


Those of us who frequent SMW have, I think, for the most part settled into a comfortable acceptance of the fact that the Market is not the same as the Economy. It's essentially nothing more than a metacasino where our money is taken from us so the bankers can play.

Imagine this scenario: I have a used car to sell you. You buy it from me for $1,000. We're both happy with the deal. Now Joe Banker comes along and says, "No, wait! Do that over again! Only this time, you'll sell it for $1,000 and he'll pay $1,000 and I'll take $100 for my commission! And then you'll buy it back for $1,100 and I'll take another hundred but you'll each have your $1,000 back and I'll have $200! Isn't that great! And then we'll do it eight or ten more times!" And pretty soon Joe the banker has the $1,000, the car is repoed and sits idle in some storage lot.

That's what the markets have become. There is no longer any connection between the trading of the stocks and the operations of the companies that issued the stock, and the only "investment" is what the players toss on the table in hopes of making a killing on a bet as to which of us -- the buyers and sellers of used cars and other useful, tangible commodities -- will go broke first.

And of course, their bets are all hedged. They can't lose, and we can't win. But they have taken over the propaganda to such an extent that we -- well, not we SMWers but the masses out there -- religiously believe in the too big to fail nonsense. The world will not come to a screeching halt in its travels around the sun just because a bank fails. What WILL come to a screeching halt is the steady flow of real money into the hands of the unconsionably rich. Their bets are based on imaginary money, but they have rigged the game so that the pay-off is in the real stuff.

There is some truth, however we try to deny it with our multi-cultural color-blindness, to the disgusting comment made by Blackwater founder Eric Prince that the Afghans are barbarians. It's not that they specifically are "barbarians" in some narrow Hollywood/pulp fiction definition of the word. We're not talking Huns and Vandals and Visigoths, but something more akin to the sans-culottes of 1789 France. Or maybe a better analogy is the hoi polloi of Athens in 2010. "Greece" isn't bankrupt. The money is there, somewhere, and it always has been. It's just been stolen from its rightful owners and now they are being blamed for the problems actually caused by the thieves.

It's easy, so very very easy, to come up with scapegoats. We on the left have been scapegoated for a long time, and many of us have even internalized the guilt and shame that's been heaped on us by the right, by the capitalists, by the corporatists. We need to shrug off that guilt. We are the real Atlas.




Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

34. Voters of America---I Give You Tansy Gold!

[hamerfan]

37. She has my vote! n/t

[Dr.Phool]

36. I forgot all about that old movie, "The Forbin Project".

That's what it looked like yesterday. The pit bulls ate Michael Vick.

And, I'm willing to bet that mobsters like Goldman cleaned up with their high frequency trading programs. This shit should have been nipped in the bud when it was first discovered. And now it's running to it's logical conclusion. Legalized front-running lets you pay more for a stock, and sell for less. It may be only a penny, but they add up quickly.

I've been telling everyone I know, for the last two years, that they're nuts to even think about being in this market right now. Our government is completely broken, and the thieves have taken over. It's beyond repair.

[Tansy_Gold]

39. Life always imitates art. it's a closed loop

The Forbin Project, or 2001 and HAL killing off Gary Lockwood, or Superman Richard Pryor making off with all the rounded up cents. Or Twilight Zone's A Thing About Machines.

We have our own built-in hubris; if we didn't, we couldn't survive as a species. But some of us have less control on our hubris, and others have clamped it down almost entirely. So we have the technocrats/banksters/oiligarchs on one hand, and the modern day Luddites on the other. For different reasons, both are screaming drill baby drill and drowning out any voices of sanity that may come along.

As I wrote yesterday, the freefall on the market gave me the first real chill of fear I've felt. Fortunately, it didn't last long, but it was a reminder of the real barbarity that lurks in the shadows like a DU troll.



Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

42. Chill of fear

Actually, yesterday didn't register any fear with me at all. I have been expecting such a day for some time. Yesterday was a test, a test of those HFT computers. Next time will be worse, a lot worse and perhaps not a recovery.

[DemReadingDU]

40. People are nuts being in this market

I try to tell people to GET OUT. But no. I even had 1 sibling who said that if they get out, they will miss the gains when the market recovers.

:wtf:

[DemReadingDU]

38. pay-off is in the real stuff

and that real stuff is OUR money...whether we are in the markets, have pension, 401Ks, IRAs.

[Tansy_Gold]

45. Exactly. And we have no ownership of it; they can take it whenever they want it

It's not safe in a bank; a "glitch" can wipe it out, or it can be taken for some debt and you have no recourse.

It's not safe in cash, because cash is just as ephemeral ast HFT trades.

It's not safe in possessions, which can be stolen.

It's not safe in property, which can be taxed and seized.


Maybe it's propaganda and maybe I'm as much a victim of it as anyone, but two blockbusters of popular culture left indelible impressions on me. The first was the movie version of "The Good Earth." The land was everything to the landless peasants, and ownership of it meant the possibility of rising from poverty. O-lan knew that, instinctively. Coming from a very different background, Scarlett O'Hara knew that Tara was everything. She scraped to pay the taxes, but she would not lose Tara, even if it was only to grow turnips.

We've lost that cultural connection to tangible production; it's all ephemeral, it's all technological. And it may end up being our doom.

I believe it was Lin Carter who analyzed Tolkien's world-making in Lord of the Rings and either quoted Tolkien himself or came up with his own suggestion that "The Scouring of the Shire" upon Frodo's return from Mount Doom was less a condemnation of the Great War and its aftermath than it was of the industrialization of England. While I think Tolkien was too much of a romantic -- as indeed was William Morris and both were of a class that could indulge in such romanticism -- he recognized that modernity was not an absolute good. It brought its own price tag.

That a few of us recognize this is not enough. We are not the owners.



TG

[Dappleganger]

56. Love your posts...

they always make me think outside the norm.

[Ghost Dog]

60. Ah, you did notice there are no "Scouring of the Shire" scenes

at the movies, did you? That would have been too-troubling thought-control propaganda-wise.

[Tansy_Gold]

65. Yes, I noticed.

Tolkien was not a political person, at least I don't think so, and he was also very conservative/traditional. So he had very few women characters and none (other than maybe Eowyn) were really very active in the story, and he had no religions for his various races, as though it would be somehow blasphemous to have them be Christian but also blasphemous to create other religions for them. (I believe he was a converted Catholic, iirc.) While this may seem like lit-crit-nit-picking, the books and films have had a profound cultural impact, and I think understanding how and why they resonate with people is a valuable analysis, even on the SMW thread.

In the real world of 2010, Tolkien's kind of nostalgia for a quasi-medieval paradise is foolish outside the pages of a book or the theatre screen. But like all fantasies, it contains morsels of essential truth. We can't survive as a species without food, water, unpoisoned air, protection from the harsher elements. And we currently have a crop of oligarchs who are intent on having a high ol' time for themselves and fuck the rest of us. That's our Goldman SachSaruman in the Shire.

There was a thread here a few weeks ago about the death of Norman Borlaug, father of the green revolution who "saved" a billion lives from starvation. The question has to be, was that necessarily a good thing? Was our planet better off -- or would it have been -- with fewer people leading more comfortable lives, rather than uncontrolled population growth and the struggle for resources?

That's the question we try to answer as individuals, but we don't touch it with a ten-foot political pole, at least not in this country. China only answered half the question, and the domination of American political culture by the xtian wingnuts keeps us from having the discussion at all. And I don't think that we can even begin to have our own scouring of our own shire until we look at that particular mess.

Frodo, of course, had no children. (Neither did Bilbo). Sam probably had too many.



Tansy Gold, who should go back to writing

[Ghost Dog]

67. Mmmm. Cider with Rosie.

Population control is, or would be, of course essential to any serious sustainable economics.

[notesdev]

64. Nice summary

In answer to your question, I see a lot of support at the zero level.

[Roland99]

86. I *heart* that post.

[Robbien]

43. Blankfein tells the crowd that Goldman understands there is disconnect

between how Goldman views itself and how its viewed in the public."

The WSJ Deal Journal is liveblogging the Goldman shareholder meeting

This gathering will likely be a big departure from past meetings, which have tended to be big pep rallies with lots of self congratulation.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/05/07/live-blogging-goldman-sachs-shareholder-meeting/

[Robbien]

52. Jesse Jackson

"States are sinking, schools closing, record breaking home foreclosures, public transportation cut, public health cut, poverty expanding, unemployment rising. A more diverse board might appeal to you today."

Blankfein says he agrees with Rev. Jackson. "There is no success for Goldman Sachs unless the economy as a whole grows" and a wider divergence is not created, Mr Blankfein said.

[Tansy_Gold]

55. And the policies of GS and its brethren banksters CAUSED those problems

:puke:

[Loge23]

58. Blankfein is FOS

Blankfein, and the rest of his gang, understand full well the "disconnect" and the effects of their crimes on the economy "as a whole". They understand it, encourage it, and profit from it.
Blankfein and his punks can care less about Jackson's appeal.
Later today, Blankfein will retire to his mega-mansion somewhere, maybe fly off to a resort or his vacation home, and perhaps check his Treasure Chest to see how much loot he has collected today. Nothing will change this. He has generational wealth already.
The rest of us could be wiped out - so what. We'll work as his butlers and bartenders.
The piece of garbage wrapped in skin - Blankfein - can rot in the hell on the earth that he has created for himself. But instead he will continue to delude himself with the false trappings of success as defined by him and his ilk.
He makes nothing but misery, but since misery pays him very well - he's successful in only his own shit-filled eyes.

[Dappleganger]

57. "Goldman Sachs has become a nest of nepotism"

There's a lot of inbreeding in that company, no doubt about it!

[Dr.Phool]

47. Here we go again. DOWN

10:23am Dow - 120

[DemReadingDU]

49. Oh my, down -187

edit, down -268

Wonder if the HFT computers are controlling this market again?

[nc4bo]

51. Or fat fingeritis. nt

[Tansy_Gold]

54. Comin' back up. Only -155 at 10:40 ET

But I have a feeling it's gonna be, um, interesting today.

:rofl: :rofl: :popcorn:



TG

[Dr.Phool]

59. Only -76 now.

Looks like I picked the right week to start drinking!

[Hugin]

61. Being led by who else...

The Financial Sector Pump n' Dumpers. :eyes:

[notesdev]

62. The market is being so maniuplated now

that the numbers mean nothing... if TPTB want the market up today, it will go up today - the Fed will unleash as many hundreds of billions as is necessary to prevent the true value of this market being known.

[Hugin]

70. I think we got a little peek at the TVOTM yesterday.

Did anyone else go "Hmm" when the Big Vee hit it's bottom at 9,977 on the DOW?

I figure the "Glitch" was someone inadvertently hooked the other set of books (the set we peons never get to see) up to The Big Board. :shrug:

[AnneD]

66. I parked my car ....

at an odd angle in the driveway after our Nurse Meeting. That much fun should be illegal.

[notesdev]

69. Climbed back up to even...

then promptly plunged another 100 points and counting... what fun these markets are when you have no skin in the game!

[hamerfan]

74. It goes up, it goes down

With no correlation to events here in reality-land.
-95 now. In 10 minutes, who knows?

[Demeter]

68. Cui Bono?

Yesterday wasn't an accident--it was a not-quite-a-crime that got out of control.

The obvious suspect is Goldman. It is going to pay off the SEC to get out of the legal mares-nest. So Goldman needed some quick cash.

If the do-over works in Goldman's favor, that's a real crime. If it hurts Goldman, that's justice.

Which one do you think it is?

[Robbien]

71. Over at Zero Hedge there's talk about Goldman pulling liquidity

After the trading started to go wonky, Goldman manually came in an pulled all liquidity from the NYSE:

Having seen the capitulation unfold second by second and then listen to CNBC come up with every excuse under the sun just got under my skin. I've decided to chart some of our one second analytics charts of the capitulation unfolding on our screens. The chart below (more to follow) captures the moment of the final capitulation, before the reversal today. The idea that it was a 'fat finger' error is ludicrous; unless the fat finger hit every market in the world virtually simultaneously. Liquidity simply left the world financial markets for about four minutes this afternoon. The bids just vanished. And what else vanished? Remember the vaunted supplemental liquidity providers, led by Goldman Sachs. Remember that they are paid to "provide liquidity" through their predatory high-frequency algos, they are not required to do so. So when the S@#$T hit the fan they just disappeared. In one second more or less someone (and yes, under these circumstances, human beings take control of the machines) made the decision to pull the bids on every equity in the S&P, every financial futures contract, every FX contract in every market in the world. This kind of thing just doesn't happen in a pure auction environment; there just isn't a tight enough communication link between the parties to allow the decisions to propagate within the same second -- even with HFT algorithms. No. Some human made the decision to pull the bids; all of them, all at once. If that is not a condemnation of the concentration of financial power and the systematic risk it engenders I don't know what is.


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dissecting-crash


Now Seeking Alpha has an entry about a fight between Nasdaq and NYSE concerning liquidity and NYSE's manually withdrawing it:

After Nasdaq's (NDAQ) CEO accuses the NYSE (NYX) of "walking away," NYSE Euronext CEO Duncan Niederauer returns fire and urges other exchanges to take up the NYSE's market model, which drew criticism for reducing liquidity by switching to human auctions.


So no "glitch", just no liquidity cause Goldman took away all the cash.

Interesting.

[Demeter]

72. Okay

If a really amateur geek can figure this out, why can't Obama?

Because he's captive of the Goldman boys and Rahmbo is their leader.

[Robbien]

77. They will never figure it out

because to do so some one in their circle, one of the elite, will have to be found at fault. No elite is ever at fault therefore there is no answer.

[Demeter]

73. fat fingered response

damn computer

[Tansy_Gold]

75. Because they can????????

Is that the bottom line?

Are GS now playing a petulant Sauron to our pathetic Frodo?



TG

[Hugin]

78. No surprise, I'm sure they view it ALL as THEIR cash.

Entitled bastards. :eyes:

[Roland99]

82. link doesn't work now.

[Roland99]

84. ok, they fixed it.

[Roland99]

91. I liked this entry, too.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/near-1000-point-slide-djia-compels-further-investigation-wall-street-casino-scam

[ozymandius]

76. drive-by posting

1:36
Dow 10,432.35 -87.97 -0.84%

Nasdaq 2,285.16 -34.48 -1.49%

S&P 500 1,117.03 -11.12 -0.99%

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

79. Just a correction.

[AnneD]

88. Thanks...

maybe it is my sick black Nursing humour-but I always like that pic.

[Roland99]

80. 3:08pm - Pushing downward more now. -160

Dow 10,360 -160 -1.52%
Nasdaq 2,262 -57 -2.47%
S&P 500 1,110 -19 -1.65%
GlobalDow 1,825 -39 -2.11%
Gold 1,210 +13 +1.05%
Oil -1.86 -2.41%

[TalkingDog]

81. High Strangeness!!!!: Somebody explain THIS to me please!

I was Googling the stock market SNAFU last evening. There's a he said/she said storyline. Pushed the wrong button/Not! So I'm poking around and run across this on a chat board (note the time):

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 898845
Location:Netherlands
5/5/2010 9:28 AM


I FULLY EXPECT A DOW LEVEL 1 HALT TODAY

Level 1 Halt
An 1,050-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. will halt trading for one hour; for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect if at 2:30 p.m. or later unless there is a level 2 halt.



Yes, the site is full of conspiracy theories and everybody wears tinfoil hats, BUT HOW THE FUCK DID HE DO THAT!!?

Full Thread:

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1056212/pg1

[Hugin]

83. Lloyd posts on the Interneck Tubules!

Under the nick, Anonymous Coward? How typical.

[TalkingDog]

85. As far as I can tell, Anonymous Coward is the default moniker.

I think it has to do with all the conspiracy theories. If you make a claim and you aren't willing to put your name on it.....Anonymous Coward


His last post was at 2:21 today

____________________________________________________

It looks like some faction has it in for Times Square.

Police close off part of New York’s Times Square
Bomb squad investigates suspicious cooler outside hotel


I'm still convinced the Dow will close in the red...triple digits.

An event at Times Square will cause the market to Lock Limit Down. So far, it looks like this incident doesn't look serious.

If it turns out to be something horrible...tell Katie to BAR THE DOOR!

_________________________________________________________

[Demeter]

87. 4 PM and All's Gone To Hell in a Handbasket

Evidently the pumps weren't working yesterday and they had to call a mulligan.
Today the pumps are only cushioning the fall. Looks like a close at 10350?

I don't know if it is a significant correlation, but I woke up with a splitting headache and the chills. I wonder, who got me the flu for Mother's Day?

Actually, it's cold out today and pouring rain, and it's "just" a sinus headache that won't give up. And my sleepless nights have caught up with me, after all.

Is this Goldman Sach's subtle way of demonstrating how important they are to the Markets, or is it their last FU before the plug is pulled on their criminal enterprises?

May is turning out to be even more interesting than April.

"May you live in interesting times" (the Chinese are behind it?)

[tclambert]

89. I'm thinking I have to add a new rule: Only place limit orders, no market orders.

Yesterday I was thinking about re-balancing a few investments. I took a nap instead. (What a savvy move that was!) If I had happened to place a market order yesterday, what would have happened if it went to trade during those fateful few minutes? The big institutional investors are apparently getting a "do-over" for a lot of their trades. Does anyone think a micro-investor like me would get such special treatment?

So for safety's sake, I think I have to make sure to place limit orders, to only allow the trade if the price is within the bounds I set. A market order will trade at whatever price the market sets, no matter how horrible. A broker told me long ago they prefer market orders, which are sure to go through. A limit order may not happen if conditions change drastically. But I think that's exactly what I want, and TO HELL WITH THE BROLERS!

Anyone who placed a market order yesterday could have really gotten burned.