Clegg is urged to abandon deal as Tories rule out vote reform

[Turborama]

Source: The Independent on Sunday

Leading Conservatives react with horror to a day of shuttle diplomacy between Lib Dem leader and David Cameron as thousands demonstrate in favour of PR, joining voices calling for the creation of 'traffic light' coalition of the left


Nick Clegg addressing 'fair votes' protesters in Smith Square, where the Lib Dems held their talks

By Jane Merrick, Brian Brady, Jonathan Owen and Lewis Smith

Nick Clegg was urged by senior figures in his party last night to back a "traffic light coalition" with Labour, Green and smaller parties amid signs that David Cameron's proposed deal to the Liberal Democrats has triggered an angry backlash among Tory and Lib Dem MPs.

The Lib Dem and Conservative leaders met last night for "constructive" face-to-face talks to try to reach a deal before markets open tomorrow morning. Earier, after a crucial meeting with his party in Westminster to gauge reaction to a Lib-Con coalition, Mr Clegg addressed a 1,000-strong crowd protesting in favour of electoral reform to insist that proportional representation was still key to the talks.

Senior Lib Dem figures were pressing Mr Clegg to shun Mr Cameron's overtures because the Tories would never deliver on PR. And in a major blow to the Lib Dem leader, senior Tory sources made clear there would be no further concessions on electoral reform – presenting Mr Clegg with a hardball "take it or leave it" deal – and that Mr Cameron would press ahead with a minority government if coalition talks collapsed. Talks between Lib Dems and Tory negotiating teams will resume at 11am today.

At a key point in a fast-moving day in Westminster yesterday, demonstrators armed with a petition of 30,000 signatures calling for proportional representation chanted "no more wasted votes" and "we want Nick" outside a meeting of the Lib Dems' 57 MPs at Local Government House in Smith Square. The signatures were collected in the 24 hours since the general election resulted in a hung parliament, demanding that whatever form the new government takes it must scrap the first-past-the-post system and introduce democratic reform.

To cheers from the crowd, Mr Clegg told protesters: "Take it from me, reforming politics is one of the reasons I went into politics. I campaigned for a better, more open, more transparent new politics every single day of this general election campaign. I genuinely believe it is in the national interest, it is in the interests of everybody in Great Britain for us to use this opportunity to usher in a new politics after the discredited politics of the past."

Yet the lively scenes were overshadowed by a furious reaction from grandees in the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties to the prospect of a pact between the two. The Independent on Sunday understands that some of the most senior figures in the Lib Dems are urging Mr Clegg to go for a Lib-Lab coalition – despite the Tories winning the most seats.

The "traffic light coalition" would bring together the red of Labour, yellow of the Lib Dems and the one Green MP alongside three from the SDLP, one Alliance member and the independent Lady Sylvia Hermon, without the need to rely on the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the DUP or Ulster Unionists. They would total 321 MPs – although this would still fall short of the 326 needed for a majority.

Read more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/clegg-is-urged-to-abandon-deal-as-tories-rule-out-vote-reform-1969467.html

---

(Note to mods: Apologies but I had to go slightly over the paragraph limit as I couldn't work out how to edit it without losing some context)

There's a lot more to this article including several quotes from Liberal Democrat MPs and what the other Sunday papers are saying.

Videos of Clegg addressing the protesters yesterday: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x463153

Related article from The Independent on Sunday: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/so-david-cameron-why-did-you-fail-to-seal-the-deal-1969216.html">So, David Cameron, why did you fail to seal the deal?

[JDPriestly]

1. Clegg can afford to be very, very patient.

He is in the catbird's seat. (I think that is the old expression.)

[grantcart]

2. He is and it was.

[pscot]

20. For those of us who haven't been paying proper attention

Briefly, just who is who?

[muriel_volestrangler]

25. Brief guide:

Conservatives (aka Tories): right wing, not as extreme as many present-day Republicans, but some can be fairly bad, led by David Cameron, who has tried to make them look 'compassionate' and moderate. Whether they are these days is open to question. His previous job was in PR, so he's well practiced at putting lipstick on a pig. Were in favour of the Iraq war, but have opposed a few bits of anti-civil liberty lawsthat Labour has tried. They got 307 seats (assuming they win their safe seat for which the election weas postponed when a candidate died).

Lib(eral) Dem(ocrat)s: centrist, led by Nick Clegg. For social and civil liberties, but centrist economically. Strongly in favour of proportional representation voting - typically they get over 20% of votes, but under 10% of seats. Opposed the Iraq war. Got 57 seats.

Labour: led by Gordon Brown, equivalent of treasury secretary 10 years under Blair, before 3 years as leader. Historically left wing, but became centrist (arguably centre right) under Blair, and Brown has kept them there (in terms of official policy, anyway). Less keen on civil liberties than the Lib Dems, took Britain to war in Iraq because Bush told them to. Got 258 seats.

An effective majority needs 323 seats. Other parties include SNP and Plaid Cymru (Scottish and Welsh nationalists, 6 and 3 seats, tend to be moderate left), SDLP (Northern Irish nationalists (ie in favour of uniting with the Republic) but generally like old-style Labour in other policies, 3 seats), Alliance (Northern Irish centrists in every respect, 1 seat), Green (1 seat), DUP (NI Unionists, right wing, 8 seats).

[pscot]

27. Thanks

One can't tell the players without a program.

[cyclezealot]

3. Cameron has every intention of burying the Lib Dems.

through gerrymandered districts.. Consolidating power is the Thatcherites real goal.. Should Clegg make a pact with the devil, he will in effect sign a suicide pact for the Lib Dems..

[mwooldri]

16. Pretty hard to gerrymander districts in the UK...

But the Lib Dems want a more proportional system because they see regularly in elections getting 20+% of the vote and getting about 3-8% of the seats... so they say the deal with us is PR, and it's always been the price even back to simple Liberal days - even back to the 1920s...

The best thing IMO is a minority Conservative government, and the opposition united enough to be able to pull the trigger on a no-confidence vote at any time. Hand the Tories a shovel, shove them into the money pit and watch them dig. Plus since the Tories are usually the sleazy slimeballs, we can then have plenty of tabloid headlines of Conservative Minister sex scandals.

The Lib Dems won't get PR, but this would be great for Labour.

Mark.

[cyclezealot]

32. Gerrymander hard to accomplish in the UK?

Is not the word , gerrymander a term of UK origin. ?.. Once they called them rotten boroughs.? So, the Tory plan to reduce the number of riding won't give them an opportunity to gerrymander. ?
Should Labour not see the benefits of PR they are stupid.. UK governments are often a majority government even though the popularity vote does not reflect such.. And that is called democracy. ?. Resulting in Labour often being totally locked out.. When a system based on the popular vote would have put them into power.. Is it not better to share power with a progressive coalition rather than being locked out of government all together. ?

[muriel_volestrangler]

34. No, gerrymander is of US orgin

Etymology: Elbridge Gerry + salamander; from the shape of an election district formed during Gerry's governorship of Massachusetts
Date: 1812

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/gerrymander

Rotten boroughs did exist, before 1832, when only rich landowners could vote. Things have changed slightly since then, believe it or not.

Constituency boundaries are set by the Electoral Commission, an independent body, based largely on existing county and local council boundaries. They have guidelines on what they must take into consideration when setting them. The parties can make submissions on why they think one choice rather than another would be good (as can individuals), but those from the governing party don't hold any more weight (if they pay a lawyer to write it, it may be more persuasive, but that's a function of donations, not power).

It is true that, at the moment, the average size of a Tory constituency is still larger than a Labour one. This may be because it's based on the last census figures (2001), and there's a gradual migration from urban seats where Labour do well to suburban and rural ones where the Tories do. The Electoral Commission also seems to tend to stick with the status quo, so some earlier anomalies have been allowed to remain. Also, Wales has been given extra seats in parliament, for no good reason, and Labour has strong support there.

PR is a two-edged sword for Labour. They won 39.7% of the seats this time, from 29.0% of the vote. Many Labour MPs see that they have just had 13 years as a majority, and optimistically think they can increase their vote a few percentage points more, and become a majority government again. Even with this result, they're not locked out - there's still a chance of a coalition led by Labour.

[Q3JR4]

4. Sorry for being a stupid American

with no real understanding of UK politics, but if the Lib Dems and Labor along with some or all of the smaller parties could hammer out an agreement why is it that Gordon Brown has to be Prime Minister? Couldn't they form a coalition with Nick Clegg at the head?

Seems to me that if Nick Clegg won't work with Gordon Brown and if people'd react with horror at the prospect of an unelected Prime Minister, why does the PM have to come from Labor?

It's looking like the whole thing goes by seat count, okay, but does that HAVE to be the case?

Thank you for the help. :)

Q3JR4.

[Joe Chi Minh]

5. People didn't react with horror at the prospect of an unelected PM. That twaddle is just

part of the perjurious alternative reality constantly peddled by our media's talking-heads. Particularly, given the non-existent history of the Lib-Dems in power, seat count makes sense.

But how about the weirdly twisted way the authors expresses themselves, here:

'The "traffic light coalition" would bring together the red of Labour, yellow of the Lib Dems and the one Green MP alongside three from the SDLP, one Alliance member and the independent Lady Sylvia Hermon, without the need to rely on the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the DUP or Ulster Unionists. They would total 321 MPs – although this would still fall short of the 326 needed for a majority.'

The SNP and Plaid Cymru would come into the equation.

[quakerboy]

26. And which way would the

SNP and Plaid Cymru throw their support?

[muriel_volestrangler]

28. The SNP have ruled out supporting the Tories

and I think it's very unlikely Plaid will either. But they could easily abstain on votes; or support Labour. They might even vote against Brown, with or without the Lib Dems, if they think he's not viable, and hasn't offered them anything.

[Joe Chi Minh]

30. Any direction but the Tories. NuLab(c) would also probably get the Northern

Irish SDLP votes, if not others.

The Tories are a cultural anachronism. With a PR election system, they'd be even less viable as a party than now, hence their vehement opposition to it.

[cyclezealot]

6. Normally the party leader becomes

Leader of legislative contingent as PM or Leader of the Opposition.. Labour could agree to a government headed by Clegg, but with over 3 times more Labour MP over LibDems, that would take a huge bit of generosity. How about a new Labor PM with the Lib Dem leader as second in command.. Usually the second in command of the UK government is the Chancellor of the Exchequeur.

[reggie the dog]

7. Clegg could be the head,

if a coalition is made they can deal with who will be head and deal that against proposed changes in law. clegg wants proportional representation and will likely side with labour who said they would vote for that reform

[reggie the dog]

9. SNP and welsh national party do not equal the BNP

the BNP is racist right wing, the SNP is not racist and farther to the left than labour, as is the welsh national party. the SNP and the Welsh national party want proportional representation as well as the greens so this kind of coalition would work, also the torries are anti european union whereas the lib dems, greens, labour, snp and wnp are all pro european union;

[Pab Sungenis]

11. He has to stay Prime Minister for one simple reason.

Tradition states that the Queen gives a sitting Prime Minister the first opportunity to assemble a majority government. If he is unable to, or resigns, then the privilege falls to the leader of the party with the most seats to form a coalition. If he can't, then they have the privilege of forming a minority government until there is a vote of no confidence.

The reason Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher could resign as Prime Minister and their party could stay in power is because they led majority governments, which survived votes of no confidence following their resignation. However, if Gordon Brown resigns after forming the coalition then there is an excellent chance that the vote of no confidence which follows would topple the government immediately. And if he resigns before forming the coalition then the Queen needs to turn to David Cameron which would end the chance of the Hodgepodge Coalition from sitting.

The best he can do is to agree to sit as PM for a caretaker government but fill a lot of the cabinet with LibDems and others so that it isn't seen as Labour continuing, with the provision that he resign after electoral reforms are passed. Then if the government falls, there is a chance of a new election going differently.

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. I don't remember votes of no confidence after either Brown or Major took over

There was a motion of no confidence in Brown before he became PM, about his record as chancellor, in April 2007, which he survived: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6561989.stm . I don't think votes of no confidence are automatic, or even normal, after a new PM is appointed by the governing party; only if the opposition thinks the PM, new or old, is losing the required support from his party or necessary minor parties.

If Brown forms a coalition, and then resigns, then the coalition will ensure that Labour survives any confidence vote that the Tories might want to try - or it wouldn't be a coalition.

[Pab Sungenis]

18. There was a move for one with John Major

but it went nowhere. I remember Neil Kinnock's very passionate speech in calling for it. There may not have been one with Brown, but Labour held such a majority that the Tories might not have bothered.

[Q3JR4]

29. Thank you.

This answered all my questions and clarified everything for me.

Q3JR4.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

22. What should happen is that the Lib dems should team up with Labour, Greens and minority parties

get PR installed. Do not let the Tories back in as it is the road to disaster.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

8. I really do not know about PR

I've been having that discussion with my husband. Although, on paper, it looks like a good idea but implementing it and giving other parties a chance at representation in Westminster means including far right Anti-European parties like BNP and UKIP a seat in Westminster.

[mwooldri]

17. I'd rather shine daylight on UKIP and BNP than keep them in the dark...

At council level they've already been exposed - one council had 12 BNP members on it at one time, and this time around all 12 lost their seats. The leader of the BNP in the seat he was standing for got 4th place IIRC.

As it stands, if we had PR on this election, we would be looking at a Lab-Lib coalition government, and most likely including some other like minded parties to indicate to the public a broad support in government. However this election was conducted on 650 individual first-past-the-post races, and the Tories got the most seats but not a majority of them.

There's also a growing movement - seeming to be successful so far - that's out there demonstrating and trying to persuade the political leaders to get some real electoral reform into place... and this means this: Nick really is between a hard place and a rock right now.

Mark.

[IndianaGreen]

10. Not enough seats in a Lib-Lab coalition to form a government

They will have to bring in the smaller parties, kinda herding cats, in order to succeed.

[Change Happens]

12. The LibDems have 51? Plus 294?

They will have enough...Only need 326.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. Lib Dems 57, Labour 258

SDLP 3, Alliance 1, Greens 1, Plaid Cymru 3, SNP 6. The Independent On Sunday article bizarrely suggests bringing in Sylvia Hermon, but she's an Ulster Unionist who disagreed with her party's decision to form a pre-election coalition with the Tories, and left it and retained her seat, but as an independent. Politically, she'd be a very bad fit with Labour or the Lib Dems; she just didn't like to be too close to the Tories in a coalition, and I can't see she'd like being a tiny part of a more left-wing coalition either.

The SDLP and Alliance are fairly certain as partners with Labour and the Lib Dems, and Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, could probably be persuaded to support them in confidence votes, as long as they take green issues seriously (which the Lib Dems would want to anyway). To get a majority (with Sinn Fein not voting, as they never have done) a coalition would at least need the Welsh nationalists too, and probably the Scottish. In some ways that shouldn't be too great a problem, but they'll want to extract as many devolved powers, and as much regional money, as they can, so the bargaining would be tricky.

[mwooldri]

15. The majority needed is NOT 326.

There are 650 seats up for grabs.

Now Sinn Fein have won 5 seats. But... because they will NEVER swear alleigance to the Queen, they cannot in effect take their seats at Westminster, and can't vote in the chambers. Sure, they'll have offices, and if there are things of a Westminster issue that they need help with when it comes to a constituent they're most likely to find another MP to work with to address the issue... but they will not be seated in Westminster.

Therefore there are now 645 seats in play. The new majority is 323. Labour + Lib Dems + Green + Alliance + NI Independent + SDLP = 321. Two more seats needed for a coalition majority.

Nick Clegg is only talking with the Tories because of a pledge he made in the debates: the party with the largest number of seats should have a go at making a government. The Tories won most seats... Con + Lib Dem would be a majority... but Con + Lib Dem politics are about as a great as trying to get Republicans and Democrats to agree on major policies... and the price of Lib Dem co-operation is electoral reform. The Tories will *not* agree with this in any shape or form... so they'll talk and I feel that these talks will end up collapsing.

If Plaid Cymru join in or the SNP join in then it would work... I think Plaid Cymru joining in could be more likely than SNP because more can be conceded to the Welsh to make it more like the Scottish Parliament - the SNP will demand a lot more... so Lab + Lib + SDLP + Green + Alliance + NI Ind + Plaid = 324... and if SNP have an "agreement" not to vote against the government in a vote of no confidence... then this mass coalition could govern.

Alternatively... a Conservative way-minority government could be formed, with the Lib Dems not in coalition but a simple agreement for them to work but a promise of a no-confidence vote initially so they can get into action, watch the Tories make a mess even worse ... and when it gets bad agree with Labour et al to call a No Confidence vote and force a new election.

This is a whole political mess, it's new territory for Westminster politics, and this may possibly be the end of first past the post... or an eventual return to Con vs Lab politics as usual in a few years.

Mark.

[Turborama]

21. Plaid Cymru and the SNP have already said they want in

The question is, who decides whether they are in or not, Clegg or the leader of the Labour party (whoever that will be)? I have been saying since Friday that Clegg must be only going through the motions with the Tories because of his campaign pledge, but the longer this goes on the more doubt creeps into my mind about that.

I have a question about the procedure. If Clegg is unhappy with the Tories' offers, can he go to Brown to get the details of Labour's offers and weigh them both up? Or is it no going back time once he says he's checking out Labour's offers?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

24. I don't see why Libs can't bring in the minority Welsh, N Ireland and Scottish parties

[bikebloke]

19. Brown is out.

Any coalition won't include Gordo as PM. According to the Beeb last night. Milliband and Balls were already lining up for the Labour Party leader spot. A traffic light coalition would have either of them residing in Number 10. Labour needs to drop the Blair/Brown Tory-lite stance they've adopted and return to its roots.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

23. I think Labour members have not been happy with Blair/Brown

Time for a change back to real Labour not Conservative lite.

[Kringle]

31. It is time for ... a general strike ...nt

[T_i_B]

33. Which is better...

Conservative / Lib-Dem coalition or Labour / Lib-Dem coalition?

There's only 1 way to find out...............

FIIIIIIGHT!

[legin]

35. Clegg is negotiating with the wrong people

He should organise a deal making/breaking coalition with the smaller parties so that he is in a position to put BOTH the Conservatives AND Labour over the finishing line. That way he has more clout.