STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday May 10

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday May 10, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 7, 2010

Dow... 10,380.43 -139.89 (-1.35%)
Nasdaq... 2,265.64 -54.00 (-2.38%)
S&P 500... 1,110.88 -17.27 (-1.55%)
Gold future... 1,191 -19.10 (-1.58%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.43 +0.04 (+1.03%)
30-Year Bond 4.28 +0.08 (+1.86%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rebounds to above $77 on European loan package

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rebounded to above $77 a barrel Monday in Asia from last week's 14 percent sell-off after Europe and the IMF pledged nearly $1 trillion to help defend the embattled euro.

The European Union Commission and International Monetary Fund pledged a euro750 billion loan package Monday after the euro plunged last week amid investor concerns a debt crisis in Greece could spread to other European countries.

"The EU rescue package has calmed financial markets for now," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "Equities are going up, the dollar is coming down and oil is reacting to that."

In other Nymex trading in June contracts, heating oil rose 5.03 cents to $2.1298 a gallon, and gasoline added 5.21 cents to $2.1772 a gallon. Natural gas gained 3.8 cents to $4.053 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. "Shock and awe" halts euro market slide for now

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – A $1 trillion global emergency rescue package to stabilize the euro reversed the slide in world financial markets on Monday but left longer-term questions about whether Europe's weakest economies can manage their debt.

The plan, hammered out by European Union finance ministers, central bankers and the International Monetary Fund in weekend negotiations, was the biggest since G20 leaders threw money at the global economy following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

The "shock and awe" scale of the package of standby funds, loan guarantees, liquidity measures and central bank bond purchases surprised financial analysts and the euro rose some 2 percent, while stocks in Europe and Asia firmed.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares surged by 3 percent in early trading, after falling 8.9 percent last week to a seven-month low on Friday. The Asian rally was more modest compared to last week's losses.

In concerted action, the U.S. Federal Reserve reopened currency swap lines with several central banks to try to assure markets of dollar liquidity and the European Central Bank said it would buy government debt to steady investor nerves.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100510/bs_nm/us_eurozone

[ozymandius]

4. US Fed offers emergency help to ease euro crisis

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US Federal Reserve stepped in to ease Europe's debt crisis on Sunday, offering to swap dollars for the euros in an emergency bid to prevent bank lending from grinding to a halt.

The Fed, announcing a coordinated effort by central banks in the European Union, Britain, Canada, Switzerland, said it would announce details of the deal soon.

The falling euro and increased risk premiums have pushed the cost of getting dollars ever-higher in recent weeks, threatening to gum up European financial markets.

The US currency is needed to pay for everything from dollar-denominated debt to oil futures contracts.

The Fed's announcement came as Europe announced a monster rescue package running to 750 billion euros between euro countries and the IMF.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100510/pl_afp/eufinanceeconomybankworldus

[Ghost Dog]

5. Euro zone central banks buying govt bonds - Bundesbank

FRANKFURT, May 10 (Reuters) - Euro zone central banks have started buying government bonds, Germany's Bundesbank said on Monday.

'We confirm this,' a Bundesbank spokesman said.

The Bank of Finland said earlier that all euro zone central banks would take part in the bond buying plan, a key part of the $1 trillion package aimed at resolving the euro zone debt crisis.

/. Euro zone central banks buying govt bonds - Bundesbank

[ozymandius]

13. Ritholtz: EU to Dump a $Trillion Dollars into Eurozone

Markets are 3-5% higher around the globe, as the Europeans surprised traders with their ability to a) work cooperatively; b) write ginormous checks; 3) engage in quantitative easing.

To parahrase Ned Davis, “Give me a trillion euros, and I will throw you a hell of a party.”

When the US began its massive bailout plan in October 2008, markets had been falling for 10 months, and were down 20% from peaks. Ultimately, the liquidity added was rocket fuel to the markets, and after they fell a total of 55%, a 75% rally ensued over the next year.

Europe has now gone down the same path — but from a very different location in the market cycle. I would not expect the reaction to be identical, but one must be very cognizant of the impact a trillion dollars will have on markets.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/eu-to-dump-a-trillion-dollars-into-eurozone/

A $Trillion dollars = caveat emptor. Price equilibrium becomes irrelevant today.

[Demeter]

23. I Think They Found Their New Bubble, Ozy

The hunt was relentless and far-ranging, and I know they would have rather put it into something more sexy--something that could be skimmed for profiteering, but there it is.

This is where the black hole effect takes over.

[Ghost Dog]

45. Yes.

But it is, after all and above all, your black hole.

:shrug: music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uob20zqxFns

Edit to add more music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpoYzC7kcW0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyF70wrI250&feature=related

[Demeter]

47. And Don't We Know It!

Well, in as much as the US under Bush permitted the construction and feeding of that black hole...which a GOP-run Congress laid the foundation for, and Clinton neglected to nip in the bud. That's what too much consensus-seeking will get you.

[Ghost Dog]

50. Oh, and also (not Greek but essential Balkans:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQnKQC9bGoM

... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SGX1sRKYP4

[Demeter]

25. Unclear if E.U. 'shock and awe' will provide lasting relief

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jury-out-on-long-term-impact-of-eu-rescue-plan-2010-05-10?siteid=YAHOOB

A $970 billion "shock-and-awe" effort to address the euro-zone's sovereign debt crisis brought relief to troubled credit markets and sparked a rebound by the euro and banking shares Monday, but economists said it was too early to tell whether the measures would be enough to bring financial market turmoil to an end after months of indecisive action....The European Central Bank also announced it would buy government bonds on the secondary market, while reversing plans to exit various special liquidity operations first put in place as the global financial crisis took hold last year.

"For the first time in this crisis, policy makers ... seem to have gotten ahead of the curve here and to really introduce a circuit breaker and break the dynamic in the market that was very clearly in one direction," said Klaus Baader, European economist at Societe Generale...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The premium demanded by investors to hold Portuguese 10-year government bonds over benchmark German bunds narrowed by more than a full percentage point to 3.43 percentage points Monday morning, while the Spanish bond yield spread over Germany tightened to 1.30 percentage points from around 1.65 percentage points at the end of last week.

The premium demanded by investors to hold peripheral government bonds issued by Greece, Portugal and Spain jumped last week to levels unseen since before the launch of the euro in 1999. That raised fears the Portugal, Spain and potentially other euro-zone borrowers could join Greece in effectively being shut out of the credit markets.

Greek spreads also narrowed sharply, with the 10-year bond yield premium over bunds falling to around five percentage points from more than 10 percentage points on Friday. The euro rose 2.2% versus the dollar, moving back above $1.30. See Currencies.

The situation last week threatened to sink the European banking sector and mark a new stage in the global financial crisis. European banks jumped sharply Monday morning, with European stock indexes following Asia to post sharp gains. See Europe Markets.

I DON'T SEE HOW IT COULD DO ANYTHING BUT INCREASE TURMOIL, MYSELF--IT'S DANEGELD.

[Demeter]

32. This is Shock and Awe, Part II and in 3-D

European policymakers agreed to offer as much as €750 billion in financial assistance to nations feeling pressure from speculators in an effort to curb the spread of the sovereign-debt crisis. The European Central Bank will purchase government and private bonds to counter "severe tensions" in some markets. "This truly is overwhelming force, and should be more than sufficient to stabilize markets in the near term, prevent panic and contain the risk of contagion," Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit, wrote in an e-mail. "This is Shock and Awe, Part II and in 3-D."

[Ghost Dog]

46. It's enough, Demeter. The ball's in your court

now.

[ozymandius]

64. Fundamental Question:

Can these governments put their wallets where their mouths are?

So much money has been kinda-sorta promised. Here is another scenario that seems "too good to be true", basically amounting to nothing but a bunch of talk.

Helluva hangover coming I say.

[ozymandius]

6. Secretary Gates wants 'hard, unsparing look' at military spending

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has a clear and pointed message for the US military establishment: Take “a hard, unsparing look” at what you’re costing the US taxpayer during difficult economic times, and look for serious belt-tightening measures.

In a speech Saturday at the Eisenhower Library in Abilene, Kansas, Secretary Gates said: “In each instance we must ask: First, is this respectful of the American taxpayer at a time of economic and fiscal duress? And second, is this activity or arrangement the best use of limited dollars, given the pressing needs to take care of our people, win the wars we are in, and invest in the capabilities necessary to deal with the most likely and lethal future threats?”

Other presidents and defense secretaries have tried to rein in what was seen as unnecessary Pentagon spending, in particular big-ticket items beloved by the so-called “iron triangle” of military services, defense contractors, and their champions in Congress – the “military-industrial complex” Eisenhower famously warned of in his 1961 farewell address to the nation.

In a discussion with reporters before his speech, Gates – a holdover from the Bush administration highly respected by both parties – said, “It is not a great mystery what needs to change.”

“What it takes,” he said, “is the political will and willingness, as Eisenhower possessed, to make hard choices – choices that will displease powerful people both inside the Pentagon and out.”

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20100508/ts_csm/300075

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It's no wonder that he would make this speech from Eisenhower's hometown. And rightly so as Ike was the last honest Republican president. I recommend this righteous screed written by William Rivers Pitt about stopping this recession depression in its tracks.

[hamerfan]

10. Thanks for the link, Ozy!

A fine article by Mr. Pitt, well worth reading.
Good morning to all!
hamerfan

[ozymandius]

12. You're welcome.

I found the comments well worth reading too. The sharp collection of minds, here and elsewhere, can think of many ways out of the economic prison built on behalf of the military-industrial complex.

[Demeter]

24. I had to laugh when I heard this

Just goes to prove--Reality is a bitch, and facts are stubborn little things!

[AnneD]

51. Considering that these 2 wars ....

are off the books, I don't know how that effects the economy-I am more a cook book person, not a cooked book person.

[ozymandius]

7. Stocks Rally, Euro Strengthens on EU Emergency Measures

The emergency action may allow investors to return their focus to the improving outlook for the global economy. About 70 percent of companies on the MSCI World Index that reported quarterly earnings since April 12 have beaten analysts’ forecasts, according to Bloomberg data. Employment in the U.S. increased in April by the most in four years, the Labor Department said May 7, indicating the recovery is becoming self- sustaining.

The euro climbed 2.2 percent to $1.3079, extending its two- day advance to 3.6 percent, the most in more than a year. The 16-nation currency is down 8.9 percent against the dollar this year.

For now, the rescue package “may be viewed as a positive and we may recover some of the losses we had in equities last week,” Oscar Pulido, a portfolio specialist at BlackRock Inc., said in a briefing in Seoul today. “In the longer-term, it’s going to be very much dependent on whether governments in these countries can truly take the measures to reduce the deficits they’ve accumulated.” BlackRock managed $3.36 trillion in assets as of March 31, according to its Web site.

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks rallied 2.5 percent, paring this year’s decline to 3.5 percent. Banco Santander SA, Spain’s largest lender, climbed 18 percent in Madrid, reversing last week’s 18 percent loss. BNP Paribas, the biggest French bank, advanced 16 percent in Paris while Barclays Plc gained 15 percent in London. BP Plc, battling an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, slipped 1 percent as it prepared to lower a second, smaller containment dome over the main leak point after suspending efforts to place an initial cover over the weekend.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.6 percent, snapping five days of losses. Esprit Holdings Ltd., which gets 85 percent of its revenue from Europe, rose 3.7 percent in Hong Kong. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest bank by market value, gained 5.2 percent in Sydney. Bridgestone Corp. increased 4.7 percent in Tokyo after the tiremaker boosted its profit forecast.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-10/euro-gains-most-18-months-on-support-plan-stocks-surge-greek-bonds-soar.html

[ozymandius]

9. snapshot of European stocks

rallies everywhere

STOXX 50 2719.87 219.69 (8.79%)

FTSE 100 5371.47 248.45 (4.85%)

DAX 5973.94 258.85 (4.53%)

[Ghost Dog]

14. Feeling powerful updraught here:

http://www.elpais.com/economia/bolsa/

[ozymandius]

16. Yikes!

People really do go crazy in congregations.

[miyazaki]

52. ya, they only get better one by one. n/t

[Po_d Mainiac]

8. The CB's are set to protect a run on the EUR

What if the move is on the U$D?

:popcorn:

[ozymandius]

11. This policy is already having an effect on currency markets.

CURRENCY    VALUE    CHANGE    %CHANGE    DATE/TIME
EUR-USD     1.3018    0.0263     2.0648%       05:54

[DemReadingDU]

19. Dow futures up +400 this morning. WOW

edit to add link
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

[Roland99]

20. Yeah, because company earnings are up SO much over the weekend.

oh wait....

[rfranklin]

21. This strikes me as hysteria...I expect a spike up and then...

within a few weeks another longer lasting collapse.

[Demeter]

31. And that's if we are very lucky

because the plan is to inflate this bubble all the way to the November midterm elections, which would leave vastly more death and destruction in its path.

[ozymandius]

15. About last week's massive selloff at 2:45 P.M.

From Ritholtz:

Did HFT Shutdowns Make Plunge Worse?

Scott Patterson asks: Did the automatic shutdowns make the plunge worse?

Tradebot Systems Inc., a large high-frequency firm based in Kansas City, Mo., closed down its computer trading systems when the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped about 500 points, said Dave Cummings, founder and chairman of the firm. . Tradeworx Inc., a N.J. firm that operates a high-frequency fund, also stopped trading during the market turmoil, according to a person familiar with the firm. . . .

The withdrawal of high-frequency firms from the market didn’t necessarily cause the downturn, but could have added to it, some market experts say . . .

Ritholtz: They have no market utility whatsoever — other than demonstrating the overwhelming corruption of the now publicly traded exchanges. They should not be for-profit companies, as their behavior demonstrates they are little more than whores and thieves.

I wholly agree. HFT are parasites that demonstrate neither a fair nor a clear symbiotic relationship with traditional market operations.

[Festivito]

17. Debt: 05/06/2010 12,932,913,325,200.66 (DOWN 10,581,740,935.47) (Thu)

(Down a lot. Good morning.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,415,799,575,685.44 + 4,517,113,749,515.22
DOWN 14,947,673,650.95 + UP 4,365,932,715.48

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,214,516 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,825.05.
A family of three owes $125,475.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 6,084,617,643.27.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,664,873,526.50.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 150 reports in 218 days of FY2010 averaging 6.82B$ per report, 4.69B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 990 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/06/2010 12,932,913,325,200.66 BHO (UP 2,306,036,276,287.58 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,023,084,321,688.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,712,962,281,726.83 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -
04/30/2010 +098,427,087,705.17 ------------**********
05/03/2010 -004,329,381,263.93 -- Mon
05/04/2010 +000,043,170,775.25 ------------*******
05/05/2010 +000,598,834,211.91 ------------********
05/06/2010 -014,947,673,650.95 -

28,355,922,008.98 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4371779&mesg_id=4371813

[Festivito]

57. Debt: 05/07/2010 12,928,941,224,629.55 (DOWN 3,972,100,571.11) (Fri)

(Up a tiny tiny amount. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,415,799,770,763.18 + 4,513,141,453,866.37
UP 195,077.74 + DOWN 3,972,295,648.85

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,221,162 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,811.31.
A family of three owes $125,433.92. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,959,420,703.28.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,568,889,205.85.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 151 reports in 219 days of FY2010 averaging 6.75B$ per report, 4.65B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 989 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/07/2010 12,928,941,224,629.55 BHO (UP 2,302,064,175,716.47 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,019,112,221,117.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,698,520,368,529.67 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -
04/30/2010 +098,427,087,705.17 ------------**********
05/03/2010 -004,329,381,263.93 -- Mon
05/04/2010 +000,043,170,775.25 ------------*******
05/05/2010 +000,598,834,211.91 ------------********
05/06/2010 -014,947,673,650.95 -
05/07/2010 +000,000,195,077.74 ------------*****

28,477,517,200.62 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4375016&mesg_id=4375048

[ozymandius]

18. Goldman partners face brutal cull

The cull that usually accompanies Goldman Sachs’ biennial selection of new partners promises to be more brutal than usual this year as lower-than-expected turnover of top employees could prompt the bank to oust dozens of its 400 existing partners.

The selection process provides Goldman the opportunity to change the mix of top executives at a time when its business model has been called into question by regulatory problems, a backlash against its trading activities and plans to introduce new financial regulations.

The choice of partners is closely watched both inside and outside Goldman because those joining the highest rank in the bank’s hierarchy command high pay packages and significant influence within the bank. This year the market will be watching to see whether Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive and a former trader, promotes more investment bankers in an effort to shift Goldman away from the trading businesses that caused its recent woes.

However, the low turnover means that Goldman might have to cull more old partners than at other times if its executives want to maintain the tradition of anointing 100 or so new partners while keeping the total numbers of partners at about 400. The bank appointed 94 new partners in 2008.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e70e7796-5b92-11df-85a3-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

[bread_and_roses]

22. So happy days are here again, I take it (n/t)

[Tansy_Gold]

28. For some. . . . . .

. . . . . but not us.

:-(




TG

[Warpy]

33. Oh, it's nice seeing my stuff rebound to silly overvaluing

if only for a few hours. I should take advantage of irrational exuberance and go shopping, but I really hate shopping.

The hangover is going to be a dilly. Greece might have gotten a cosmetic fix for now, but the basic structure is still crumbling at the foundation and there are four other countries in equally bad shape and the world financial system can't afford to bail them all out.

If the world plutocracy doesn't start sharing the pain, we're going to be living in very, very interesting times.

[Demeter]

34. Don't You Mean SELL?

This may be the last best chance to get out whole.

[Warpy]

43. And go to what?

Stocks are not going to go all the way to zero and will still pay out better than savings or anything else. Hiding money in t-bills might not be the wisest choice with the government skating so close to bankruptcy and unwilling to sock it to the plutocracy or cut the military. Shiny rocks are thief magnets at both ends, salted with tungsten at the purchase end and attractive to burglars at the storage end while giving no return at all on the investment, only a hedge against inflation and disaster in deflation.

If I had a small amount that wasn't giving me the income I require, I might consider getting out now just because liquidity is going to be very important to people with tiny nest eggs.

As it is, I'll emulate my grandmother who rode out the Depression. She had three bad years until Hoover was out of office followed by several lean years, but she died quite a comfortable woman in the early 50s.

[UpInArms]

26. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

83.568 -0.311 (-0.40%)

Daily Sound Bites 05.10

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-05-10-1159-Daily_Sound_Bites_05_10.html



...more...

EU Crafts 750 Billion euro Rescue Plan, U.K Maintains Asset Purchase Target at 200B

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/top_fx_headlines/2010-05-10-1127-EU_Crafts_750_Billion_euro.html



Fundamental Headlines

• World Races to Avert Crisis in Europe – Wall Street Journal
• ECB, Fed Move to Shore Up Confidence – Wall Street Journal
• Investors Welcome €720bn EU Bail-Out - Financial Times
• Euro Strengthens Most in 18 Months on Aid Plan; Stocks, Greek Bonds Rally - Bloomberg
• Default Swaps Plummet After EU Goes “All In” to Save Euro: Credit Markets - Bloomberg

EUR/USD – European policy makers unveiled a stabilization plan worth almost $1 trillion in order to combat speculation that the 11-year old euro may break apart as sovereign debt crisis flares. Taking a look at the breakdown of the rescue plan, Euro-area governments pledged to make 440 billion euro’s available, with a contribution of 60 billion euro’s from the European Union’s budget, and 250 billion euro’s from the International Monetary Fund. The plan was a clear development for risk appetite as the euro rallied across the board on Monday, but pressure is likely to return in the medium term as questions arise concerning how they will pay for the package when they all need fiscal consolidation. Additionally, the Federal Reserve announced that it will restart its emergency currency – swap tool by providing as many dollars as needed to European central banks to keep the continent’s sovereign-debt crisis from spreading. Meanwhile, European investor confidence in May fell the most in almost two years amid fears of Greek contagion. Figures showed that the index measuring sentiment in the 16-nation euro region plunged to -6.4 from 2.5 April to exceed economists’ expectations of -1.0, falling the most in almost two years.

...more...

[Demeter]

27. And They're Off!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq2kv-QQhIE


327+ points at opening. People are insane.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

29. "Bright light city gonna set my soul, gonna set my soul on fire..."

[Demeter]

30. Now 450+ at 9:45 am

I think this is a good explanation of what happens next

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=416o9b_pjQk&feature=related

Who needs the Derby when you have the financial fools?

[Dr.Phool]

35. Blasting, billowing, bursting forth with the power of 10 billion butterly sneezes.

Higher and higher.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m0ikZRxC54&feature=related

[Demeter]

36. Up Like a Rocket, Down Like a Rock

Think any of that Euro-bail money is gonna make it into the stock market? I don't.

Down to 397 already. 10 am

[Demeter]

37. Moody's Faces Possible SEC Action

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703338004575230882064318688.html?mod=dist_smartbrief



The Securities and Exchange Commission told Moody's Investors Service that it may face enforcement action for misleading regulators in a license application, an escalation of the pressure on a major player in the credit crisis.

In its annual report released late Friday, Moody's Corp., the parent of the New York rating firm, disclosed that the SEC is considering a recommendation to start an administrative case against Moody's based on a 2007 application to the SEC to remain an officially recognized credit-rating firm. The firm said it had received a so-called Wells Notice in March.

The SEC, according to Moody's filing, is arguing that Moody's failed to adhere to policies it detailed in its application.

The threat of an SEC case is the latest setback for Moody's, which has been buffeted by criticisms about its failure to properly rate billions of dollars worth of mortgage-related securities and other complex debt products.

In this case, the SEC is focusing on Moody's approach to problems it discovered in its models for rating certain exotic European debt products, which weren't mortgage-related. Allegations at the time were that Moody's failed to immediately downgrade securities because it would have been embarrassing to the firm, or possibly hurt certain market participants. This contradicted Moody's stated policy that no factor other than a bond's credit worthiness should dictate its rating.

In July 2008, Moody's acknowledged that it had an error in the way it rated constant-proportion debt obligations, or CPDOs, which are tied to the performance of corporate debt. The changes would have lowered triple-A ratings of 11 CPDOs to double-A territory—or a reduction of one to three notches. An internal investigation showed that in April 2007, members of Moody's European rating surveillance committee breached the company's code of conduct.

According to Moody's filing, the SEC staff has informed Moody's that its description of its procedures and principles in its 2007 application "were rendered false and misleading… in light of the company's finding that a rating committee policy had been violated."

MORE ALPHABET SOUP

[Demeter]

38. SEC Kicks Off Muni Inquiry

http://www.bondbuyer.com/issues/119_336/sec_muni_inquiry-1011886-1.html

The Securities and Exchange Commission is launching a nationwide inquiry into the municipal market that will lead to recommendations for specific statutory and regulatory changes to better protect investors, an SEC official said at the Investment Company Institute general membership meeting here Friday.

SEC chairman Mary Schapiro has tapped commissioner Elisse Walter to hold a series of public hearings across the country to solicit ideas from a wide range of individuals who have experienced the market from many different perspectives, Andrew “Buddy” Donohue, director of the investment management division, said in a speech he ­delivered for ­Schapiro, who did not appear at the meeting because she was tied up with Thursday’s steep stock market drop.

In her written keynote speech, which focused entirely on municipal securities, Schapiro made clear that the SEC wants public input on “designing a regulatory regime specifically for the needs of the municipal securities market” in an effort to go beyond its current disclosure and other proposals for the market.

She also called for the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board to scrap its controversial Rule G-23 and prohibit broker-dealers from serving as both financial adviser and underwriter in the same municipal bond deal. The rule allows a dealer to switch from the FA to the underwriter role in a bond transaction as long as they disclose possible conflicts of interest and their expected compensation to the issuer. But Schapiro’s speech said: “This is a classic example of conflict of interest… The board should change G-23 and forbid this practice.”

[Demeter]

39. How Much BS Can Dance on the Head of One Data Point?

An upbeat jobs report suggests America will shrug off the latest financial turbulence

http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16083498

THE question hanging over America’s economic recovery for the past year is whether it could continue once it threw away the crutches of government support. It increasingly looks like the answer is yes.

In April, American non-farm payrolls grew by a robust 290,000, or 0.2%, the largest monthly increase in four years. Temporary census workers accounted for about 66,000 of the increase, but that still meant private employment grew briskly.

The news gets better: employment figures for the previous two months were revised upwards, so it now looks to have risen for four consecutive months. Looking at the composition of the gains, manufacturing jobs rose by 44,000, the fourth consecutive gain; and even construction rose. Indicators of future labour demand were upbeat: temporary staffing agencies bulked up, and on average employees worked longer weeks.

The unemployment rate did rebound to 9.9%, from 9.7%. This is not the bad news it seems, though. America’s employment report is actually two reports, one based on a survey of employers, the other on a survey of households. Because of different definitions and normal sampling errors they often send different signals. In this case, the household survey actually found the number of people with jobs jumped 550,000, even more than what the payroll report found. However, the number of people who want to work—the labour force—rose even more, by 805,000. That’s why the unemployment rate rose. And more people being tempted to rejoin the job market is a good thing.

It is too soon to declare the expansion entirely self-sustaining, since some of the growth today still reflects the impetus from last year’s big federal stimulus programme. And this is hardly a V-shaped recovery: employment in April was still a bit lower than it was last June, the presumed end of the recession, and wages remain sluggish. Yet strong private-sector payroll growth, which corroborates other upbeat indicators, is necessary to create a self-sustaining cycle of income and spending....


I ESPECIALLY LOVE THIS COMMENT POSTED:

"The author must be under intense pressure to write this piece of shameless propaganda."

[Tansy_Gold]

48. The recession ended in June? Who knew!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl:



Presumably,




Tansy Gold

[Dr.Phool]

49. A whole year ago?

I gotta stop :beer: so much.

It's making me :crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

[Demeter]

53. I Sure Didn't

You read with a very critical eye, Tansy, I skipped right over that little slip of the tongue. I guess the larger gross-ities shocked and awed me.

It would be much more likely, and more honest, to say that reflation of the bubble economy started to be noticeable in June...what with car credits, house credits, appliance credits, and even the energy-saving tax cuts, the funding of police and fire and teachers, etc.

and still it wasn't enough to make a real change!

[Demeter]

40. Bank Funding Crunch Deepens as Swap Rates Soar: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aU7wHIpwMkbI

Europe’s government debt crisis is starting to infect the bank funding system, driving borrowing costs higher from Asia to the U.S. and threatening to slow the global economic recovery.

The interest rate financial companies charge each other for three-month loans in dollars rose to the highest since August, while traders are paying record amounts to hedge against losses in European bank bonds. Yields on corporate debt rose last week by the most relative to government securities since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy in September 2008, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes...

[Tansy_Gold]

58. Why do I have a feeling this is becoming a much bigger bubble

and it's going to burst with absolutely catastrophic consequences?

They're just pushing it off and over and around and ahead, and they're doing it faster and faster and faster, and they're just plain running out of "other people" to unload it on. It's going to come crashing down eventually, isn't it? And it's going to be really really ugly, isn't it?


Tansy Gold, isn't she?

[TalkingDog]

59. This would be the money bubble? The world bubble? The bubble bubble

toil and trouble, bubble?

[Dr.Phool]

60. Mr. Bubble

[TalkingDog]

61. I didn't know which Mr. Bubble we were talking about, so

I got them all.

[Dr.Phool]

63. At least that bubble won't make us cry.

:cry:

[Dappleganger]

41. Wait for Thursday's retail sales report.

Any ideas what it will be?

[Demeter]

42. Dubai debt deal seen in two weeks - official

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE64801220100509

Sheikh Ahmed said in an interview with CNN over the weekend that the government is in the process of refining the terms of the restructuring plan, which involves a $9.5 billion infusion of cash, but was positive that it will be well-received by creditors...

[Demeter]

44. Levin Aims to Ban Banks From Betting Against Customers

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704307804575234562129592010.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

Lawmakers are considering legislation that would ban investment banks from betting against their customers in many circumstances, in a further ripple effect for Wall Street from Goldman Sachs's troubles.

In a statement to The Wall Street Journal, Sen. Carl Levin (D., Mich.) said he is drafting legislation to prevent conflicts of interest by "prohibiting companies from taking the opposite side of the deal for their own account," at least when they are marketing investments they have created themselves.

Mr. Levin and his co-sponsor, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D., Ore.), are aiming to propose an amendment as soon as Monday to the financial-overhaul bill being debated in the Senate.

At a Senate hearing last month in which senators grilled Goldman executives, Mr. Levin focused much of his scrutiny on a handful of deals where he said that Goldman was both constructing subprime-mortgage securities and effectively betting they would fall in value.

Those deals, which carried names like Timberwolf and Hudson, are somewhat different from a 2007 transaction called Abacus that is the subject of civil-fraud allegations by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In Abacus, a hedge fund, rather than Goldman itself, took the "short" side of the transaction, betting the mortgages would decline.

In all of the transactions, a fundamental issue is how much obligation Goldman had—or should have had—to protect its customers' interests. At the Senate hearing, Goldman witnesses frequently spoke in general terms of the firm's role as a "market maker," someone who matches buyers and sellers and can take positions on his own. A market maker's duty to customers is limited.

Mr. Levin says that despite the firm's rhetoric, Goldman's role in the deals under scrutiny was as a securities underwriter or "placement agent," which carries a broader obligation to disclose details about the product. Goldman Sachs doesn't disagree that it was a placement agent in those transactions.

In Timberwolf and similar deals. Mr. Levin says Goldman failed to provide a "full, fair and honest" accounting of its interests. "We believe we acted appropriately in these transactions," said Goldman Sachs spokesman Samuel Robinson....

[JNelson6563]

62. Take it to 'em Carl!

:toast:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

54. I love scaffolding.

:loveya:

[Demeter]

55. BP: From Oil Spilling to Financial Reform Killing

http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/05/bp-oil-spilling-financial-reform-killing

Oil giant BP may be overwhelmed with the clean-up from the collapse of its Deepwater oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico. But the corporation has still found time to fight tougher financial reforms on Capitol Hill. The corporation is a member of the Coalition for Derivatives End-Users, a collection of companies actively pushing for a loophole in new regulations governing derivatives, the complex and opaque products used to hedge risk and bet on fluctuations in the financial markets. Derivatives, experts say, exacerbated the 2008 financial crisis, and lawmakers and the White House have sought to drag that market into the sunlight. The financial reform legislation now in Congress, says President Obama, will “close the loopholes that allowed derivatives deals so large and risky they could threaten our entire economy.”

Not if BP has its way. The corporation, along with the US Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable, and other large advocacy groups, wants to ensure that it is exempted from a new provision in derivatives regulation that would increase transparency and make derivatives trading less risky. (BP did not respond to a request for comment.)

[Demeter]

56. Was the Market Pushed? By Danny Schechter

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25406.htm


...The Web site, Gaming the Market, all but argues that this market drop was a calculated maneuver which may be why it's being investigated. I am not financially savvy enough to understand all of the evidence but for those of you are, here's part of what they say, including the idea of a "holy crap" moment, writing:

"These moves typically occur after 2:30pm Eastern while the market is near a new low or breaking point, with a relatively high VIX . Another characteristic is a large NYSE Adv/Decl negative ratio. One that is negative 10:1 going into lunchtime typically assures a weak close. Ratios of 3:1 negative aren't what you want. They are easier to manipulate by weak bulls.

"You want a big scary ratio. It is these negative internals that can clue you into the probability of a PPT push. A big push on a big negative internal is the tell. To instantaneously swing the market around on these days takes a massive amount of concerted capital.

"If you watched the market every day last year you know what this looks like. Using 5min candles on your favorite index you will see an immediate and massive full body candle, sometimes eclipsing the entire day's range in minutes. There is no mistaking this move. It's a wide-eyed holy crap moment! After this massive push the market will typically close near the high of the day."

Again, I am not sure how accurate this is, but I do know that the truth in the world of finance is elusive, and, yes "baffling."

"In many ways, money making is more an art as a science," I wrote two years ago in my book, PLUNDER: Investigating Our Economic Calamity, reporting on the meltdown in 2007. It was published a week before Lehman collapsed.

Despite all the rules that govern the markets or regulations designed to assure transparency and accountability, crooks, swindlers, and even gangsters are commonplace.

Corrupt practices are pervasive; regulation is behind the curve; lightening fast computers now do the heavy lifting. When professionals in the field were asked how they define criminal conduct, the majority surveyed said crimes only occur when you are caught.

Clearly some of our "market makers" know what they are doing. There is also extensive posturing in the industry to mask the often-fuzzy line between risk and uncertainty.

In many instances, major decisions are made on the basis of fragmentary knowledge, even ignorance, despite professions of careful reviews and "due diligence." Even "sophisticated investors, can be bamboozled, as we saw in the unmaking of Goldman Sachs and Bernie Madoff.

The Financial Times cites a supposedly knowledgeable market economist at Lehman who said: "We are in a minefield. No one knows where the mines are planted and we are just trying to stumble through it."

Another market participant put it this way: "It is not the corpses at the surface that are scary, it is the unknown corpses below the surface that may pop up unexpectedly." This sounds like a horror movie...