Ohioans back immigration reform, a new poll says: Robert L. Smith's Global Village

[pampango]

Source: Cleveland.com

To the surprise of immigrant advocates, Ohioans back sweeping immigration reform and are ready to engage in a debate they know could get ugly. A poll released this week found that nearly 70 percent of likely Ohio voters would support a plan that brings illegal immigrants out of the shadows and makes them tax-paying citizens.

Ohioans rated a "path to citizenship" as a higher priority than border security and other get-tough measures that are widely perceived as politically safe.

Peter D. Hart Research Associates in April polled 1,600 people in Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri and Ohio. Respondents were presented the main planks of a Democratic reform plan, like earned citizenship, tighter border security and a crackdown on employers who hire illegal immigrants. They also presented Republican criticism of the plan, including charges that it would extend amnesty to lawbreakers.

"We did find that at the end of the debate, there is still a solid majority of voters who favor immigration reform," pollster Guy Molyneux said in a conference call. In Ohio, most agreed that strengthening border security is only part of the fix. Sixty-seven percent of respondents said they favor comprehensive immigration reform.

Poll: Ohioans back immigration reform

http://www.middletownjournal.com/news/middletown-news/poll-ohioans-back-immigration-reform-698817.html

"At the end, 41 percent of Ohioans and 38 percent of all respondents trusted Democrats more than Republicans on the issue of immigration, compared to 28 percent in Ohio and 24 percent at large in the beginning. “Having this debate appears to be helpful to the Democratic Party,” Molyneux said.

The poll, conducted in April, asked voters if they would support a measure strengthening border security; fining companies severely for employing illegal immigrants; requiring illegal immigrants already here to register, learn English and pay taxes or face deportation; and increasing legal immigration when employers need to fill jobs. The study found 67 percent of both Ohioans and respondents at large approved such a measure.

Claims that it was “amnesty” resonated with only 32 percent of Ohioans. Claims that it will take away jobs while unemployment is high were rejected by 52 percent of Ohioans."

Read more: http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2010/05/a_new_poll_says_ohioans_back_i.html

[secondwind]

1. Hoowah! Great news! K&R

[customerserviceguy]

2. I'm not buying it

As the article says, there were 400 people surveyed in each state. It wouldn't be too hard to cherry pick the areas you wanted a positive response from, if you sugar-coated the questions enough.

Full citizenship for the undocumented is way more unpopular than this survey has been constructed to show. I'm curious what the people in Arkansas, Colorado and Missouri had to say in this survey.

[greiner3]

4. So what pollster do you trust?

I buy your screed about poll numbers being skewed but as an almost statistician, I believe in polls and Hart Research is among the leading groups out there.

[customerserviceguy]

6. I trust the polls on Election Day

So far, they've done more to shape policy than cleverly crafted 'scientific' poll has ever done.

[pampango]

5. Arkansans split evenly on support for this and thought "amnesty" was a fair charge, while Colorado

and Missouri were more supportive of comprehensive reform and by slight margins thought that "amnesty" was more a partisan attack than fair.

In these four states McCain beat Obama 50-49 in terms of the total popular vote and by a 42-37 margin those polled here prefer republicans to control congress after the 2010 elections and by 49-42 those polled disapprove of Obama's performance.

http://www.americasvoiceonline.org/HartSurvey

"Most Republicans in Congress oppose this immigration plan and say it is really just an amnesty plan for illegal immigrants who broke the law.

This is a fair criticism/This is an unfair political attack:
All: 41/46
Arkansas: 44/41
Colorado: 41/45
Missouri: 46/47
Ohio: 34/49"

Final Support for Immigration Reform Proposal

"REPUBLICANS say this plan is really just another amnesty proposal that gives a slap on the wrist to people who have been breaking our laws for years. It rewards people who came into the country illegally by giving them citizen-ship and taxpayer-funded benefits, like the new Obama health care plan. It allows millions of illegal workers to compete with American citizens for hard-to-find jobs when 15 million of our citizens are unemployed. And it opens the floodgates to millions more coming in, because the 12 million illegal immigrants who receive amnesty will then bring in their family members still living overseas."

"DEMOCRATS say they are offering a tough, fair, and practical plan to get the broken immigration system under control. We must secure our borders and crack down on employers that hire illegal immigrants to drive down wages. It is unacceptable to have 12 million people in our country who are outside the system. We must require illegal immigrants to register for legal status, pay their taxes, learn English, and pass criminal background checks to remain in the country and work toward citizenship. Those who have a criminal record or refuse to register should be deported."

""After equal exposure to criticisms and Democratic responses, voters in these states support reform by a solid 14-point margin, with clear majority support in Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio, while Arkansas voters are evenly divided.

Approve (Strongly/Somewhat)/Disapprove (Strongly/Somewhat)
All: 52% (22/30) / 38% (25/13)
Arkansas: 43% (19/24) / 43% (29/14)
Colorado: 56% (26/30) / 36% (26/10)
Missouri: 53% (21/32) / 42% (25/17)
Ohio: 57% (23/34) / 30% (21/9)"

Looks like full citizenship was most unpopular in Arkansas, but even there it was 44/41 that "amnesty" was a fair criticism rather than politics and 43/43 tie in support for comprehensive reform. In the other swing states support for reform was stronger.

One issue if that strong disapproval of comprehensive reform (at 25%) is stronger than strong support for it (at 22%). In the poll the "Approve" group only came out on top overall (52/38) because the "somewhat approve" (at 30%) were a lot higher than the "somewhat disapprove" (at 13%).

Most of the people that prefer a comprehensive approach to immigration reform are not as committed to their position as are the people who are determined to oppose it and will be loud and energetic.

[customerserviceguy]

7. Thanks for finding that

However, I still think that AZ's law is certainly going to be enacted in a sizable minority of states, at least. I really only see the states that voted for Dukakis (the truly hard-core blue states) as being immune from pressures to adopt this.

[happygoluckytoyou]

3. YEEHAH!!! As a cornfed ARIZONIAN that makes us DUMBEST and we get an early draftpick next season!!!!