Gulf oil spill more than 10X greater than thought

[Barrett808]

Source: NPR

NPR has learned that much more oil, 70,000 barrels a day or more than ten times the official estimate, is gushing into the Gulf of Mexico from the Deepwater Horizon pipe, based on scientific analysis of the video released Wednesday.

That's the equivalent of one Exxon Valdez tanker full every four days.

Read more: http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2010/05/gulf-oil-spill-more-than-10x-greater.html

[thereismore]

1. Does this ever stop. I can't keep up with the estimates. This can hit America like

no war has since 1860's.

[Greyskye]

2. What so many of us were afraid of.

Hell. :(

[defendandprotect]

23. Obama wants $80 billion to upgrade nuclear arms complex -- !!!

Obama wants $80 billion to upgrade nuclear arms complex

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100513/pl_nm/us_usa_russia_nuclear



:wow: :nuke: :scared:

[Barrett808]

3. Confirms what SkyTruth has been saying for a few days:

From May 9th:

BP / Gulf Oil Spill - How Big Is It?
http://blog.skytruth.org/2010/05/bp-gulf-oil-spill-how-big-is-it.html

Quite a lot bigger than the estimate being uncritically quoted throughout the media of 210,000 gallons (5,000 barrels) per day. That was the last "official" estimate made by NOAA and accepted by the Coast Guard back on April 29 (see timeline below). Before that, the Coast Guard estimates ranged from 336,000 gallons (8,000 barrels) per day, to zero, to 42,000 gallons (1,000 barrels) per day. None of these estimates has been publicly explained or substantiated. And on May 1, the Coast Guard and NOAA stopped trying to estimate the spill rate, with Admiral Thad Allen saying, "Any exact estimate is probably impossible at this time."

But the media continues to report that oil is leaking into the Gulf at 5,000 barrels per day. At SkyTruth we estimate the spill rate is closer to 1.1 million gallons (26,500 barrels) per day, based on the size of the slick on satellite images and Coast Guard maps, and thickness estimates derived from visual descriptions of the slick. That puts us at a total spill of 21 million gallons so far. ...

[skeptical cynic]

4. Which is why BP refused the release the video earlier

Knowing the diameter of the riser, all one needs is an estimate of the velocity of the oil leaving the pipe to calculate an estimate of the flow rate. They were concealing the evidence that would permit an accurate estimate of the discharge rate. An estimate that would have provided a much clearer picture of the damage being done.

We have not seen anything approaching the end of the bad news that will be coming from this event.

[Cal Carpenter]

5. Greater than *who* thought?

Did anyone believe the previous estimates?

It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. These 'experts' have been full of shit since day one.

Now I feel like we may be getting closer to the truth.

Whatever the number is, it's devastating.

Ugh.

[ShortnFiery]

15. But doesn't everyone believe the amorphous "authorities" and/or "experts?"

:silly:

[pleah]

95. +1000

[MelissaB]

6. Holy sh*t!

:scared: :cry:

[no limit]

7. It seems every other day the estimated spill turns out to be 10x greater than thought, doesn't it?

[femrap]

8. Can you

spell....D I A S P O R A ? Diaspora from the Gulf Coast...and what if the mess gets into the currents and ends up in the Atlantic? Better be taking pictures of the white sands of Daytona Beach cuz they'll be gone forever!

I can't even imagine what happens when a hurricane develops in the Gulf.

What idiot thought it would be a good idea to stretch the depths of drilling to miles below the ocean floor? It is absolutely insane.

I have no faith in the people who caused this problem to fix the problem. NONE. In fact, I have gotten to the point that I have little faith in just about anything this country does.

[Alcibiades]

9. It's going to be like the Okies during the dust bowl

Hopefully, we'll at least get a Woody Guthrie out of it.

[femrap]

40. I watched a show on the Dust

Bowl on the History Channel and it absolutely blew me away....that damn dust arrived in Washington, DC!!!! I guess with a hurricane, a few tar balls could end up in DC as well.

It's simply devastating. Mother Nature has had it.

Next....a big quake.

'Interesting times, right?'

Take care...Yep, maybe a singer of heart and soul will appear and ease our pain.

[Stardust]

57. I was thinking about quakes tonite (but, again, I think about quakes a lot).

Wouldn't having the liquid and gas beneath the surface of the ocean floor pouring out give rise to a quake? A massive shudder from Mother Earth...

[femrap]

83. I see you live

in CA...I did too for many years. Survived the Loma Prieta of '89 in San Fran. Quakes are the worst. I grew up in the Midwest. Give me a tornado (not really)...at least you have some warning. I don't have a basement so forget the tornado.

I guess there are ocean volcanoes which is an earthquake, right? I saw one on YouTube...very rare to get footage of one.

I truly believe that Mother Nature is pissed as hell given what man has done to her.

I get premonitions about quakes. I was a nervous wreck for about 2 months leading up to the Loma Prieta. I told a couple of my friends that I knew a big quake was coming and they told me to go see a shrink. After the quake, they wanted me to tell them of my premonitions. I had horrible sinus headaches. Once the quake occurred, my sinuses cleared and all the tension in my body finally dropped. It was such a relief for it to be over.

Now that I live in the Midwest again, I don't know if I'll feel premonitions for CA...I'm not there. But I sure have been tense lately. Sinuses are clear though.

Hell, given what's going on in this world, no wonder I'm tense. Hell, I've got a sick cat and just moved....so no wonder I'm stressed.

Got your EQ kit all prepared? I had one in my car, too. I kept a bottle of Scotch in the trunk. I don't like Scotch but I knew I'd need a drink if a big EQ hit. And if I kept something I liked in the trunk, I'd drink it! lol.

Be safe! Enjoy that lovely weather you have out there. I miss it. The Midwest is full of willfully ignorant people...or maybe the smart people just hide cuz I can't seem to find any.

[Boudica the Lyoness]

90. I watched that same program

It's awful that some people have to have the disaster arrive at their doorstep before they can understand or believe it.

[dixiegrrrrl]

12. Turns out BP lied about depth it planned to drill.

I know, I know, big surprise.
And not that it mattered since it got rubberstamped permits anyhow.
But, for the record, it was reported BP claimed they were "only" going to drill X number of feet,
not as deep as they did.

[femrap]

37. Did you see those 3 ugly

dudes testifying in front of the Congressional Committee? The BP dude looked just like a lizard....I kept waiting for his slithery, forked tongue to sneak out while he was pointing his little dick toward the other ugly dudes in blame!

[Botany]

68. I heard from a friend of mine who is an ecologist that they were ...

..... supposed to drill to 18,000 feet from the bottom of the ocean but went to 25,000.

Greater depth = greater pressure

[AlbertCat]

26. Better be taking pictures of the white sands of Daytona Beach cuz they'll be gone forever!

I wonder what color Tampa Bay will be when the GOP have their '12 convention?

Drill baby drill!

Deregulation rules!






I am seriously thinking the Gulf is lost.... I mean lost! Could this be "the" disaster?

Of course, I think they could plug it.... but would make it useless in the future. They're dicking around trying to stop the "leak" :eyes: but keep the well a source.

[femrap]

35. I didn't know that is

where the Repugnants were convening....Wow.

I am empty of faith...all I see is destruction.

Mother Nature will have the last word. They aren't going to use her anymore.

[FailureToCommunicate]

48. Repubs in Tampa: "Shill, baby shill!"

[HillbillyBob]

79. I had an evil idea slither across my last 2 brain cells

Tampa Bay will full tar.. now for the feathers...

[caseymoz]

51. It would be something to see what this does to the hurricane season.

It might actually suppress hurricanes, or it might just make them worst. We don't have a choice but to watch the experiment now.

[deacon_sephiroth]

58. When I read that comment

An image of Glenn Beck lighting a oil hurricane with a flame thrower went through my mind. He'd do it... "to stop the nazis" his manifesto will say.

[dixiegrrrrl]

74. I live awfully close to the laboratory of this experiment.

*shudder*

[caseymoz]

80. My sincere condolences. It might just suppress them, though.

It might impede circulation.

Or, I'm afraid, it might just heat the gulf causing more. Or heat the gulf and impede circulation, causing it to become hotter.

We're in unknown territory here, but I feel bad for anyone in your area.

[NC_Nurse]

10. aaaaaauuuuuuggggghhhh!!!!!!

:cry: :argh: :argh: :argh: :argh: :argh:

[sam kane]

65. + millions. nt.

[Jefferson23]

11. So there is no end in sight yet for how bad this is I guess. :(

[jberryhill]

13. This is getting to be like the Fox News body count at a Tea Party Rally

Except in this case, I don't think the numbers are just being made up.

[KoKo]

14. So sad to have to K&R this......

[fishwax]

16. .

:grr:

[Dappleganger]

17. They have lied from the very beginning.

We need to confiscate the entire situation and ban BP from the US, after they pay back every single penny it takes to clean up. If it is even fixable.

:mad: :mad: :mad:

[Stuart G]

72. That is the key, Lies from the beginning...I am guessing for one

reason only...to protect the size of their find. I had read that it really was an enormous find. If the extent was much larger than the public knows, then the company and its allies could hold off on producing that new product until prices rise substantially. So the price of oil in the ground is acutally worth so much more than we are paying now.

..So the company underestimates the flow, not just to lie about how bad it is, but to lie about what they have really found, or how good it is. So, if every one knows that there is much more oil to be gotten in the gulf, then the price of oil just might go down. That is not what BP wants. Is it?

[lostnfound]

77. I read something about a $1000 fine per gallon spilled, by the way.

So underestimating the flow may be in their interest in numerous ways.

[cachukis]

18. You wanna talk about sea level rise.......

[marions ghost]

19. I am not surprised

:nuke::mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :nuke:

I don't believe they can't destroy this well and stop this.

[Change Happens]

20. If the oil ever comes around the keys and I see it on my beach in Ft Lauderdale, I will sue BP

For about $83 trillion!!!

LA is a smallish state, there are close to 20 million of us in Florida, BP better get ready!!! We have lost all out construction jobs, we are cutting jobs at NASA, we only have tourism left, our beaches...

[truthisfreedom]

21. In other news, BP stocks way up as their CEO announces the fastest removal of oil from a well in BP

history.

[CLANG]

22. Now there is no longer any question - the world is fucked

[Starwriter]

24. k/r nt

[gristy]

25. The last quote in the NY times article gets it right

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/us/14oil.html

“If we are systematically underestimating the rate that’s being spilled, and we design a response capability based on that underestimate, then the next time we have an event of this magnitude, we are doomed to fail again,” said John Amos, the president of SkyTruth. “So it’s really important to get this number right.”

[paparush]

27. Don't worry, the 'experts' are telling us there's no immediate health risk.

Just like they did about Ground Zero in NYC. "Sure, no problems here. Return to work, citizen."

[WinkyDink]

41. If you don't count mere existence.

[harun]

28. Rush said that oil is natural, so no problem, right?

[caseymoz]

53. Just dip him in oil to prove it.

I bet Rush's listeners in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida are taking note of what he says right now. Rush is going to become and idiot's idiot after this.

[ixion]

29. R.I.P. Gulf of Mexico

:(

[Turborama]

30. Numbers we can all relate to... 1 Oil Barrel = 42 US Gallons. That means 2,940,000 gallons a day!

Anderson Cooper continuously got it wrong earlier, saying 5,000 gallons a day has gone up to 75,000 gallons a day. It was infuriating but eventually someone whispered something in his ear and he corrected himself at the end of the segment.

[Barrett808]

31. One Exxon Valdez every four days

And still that may be a low estimate.

[Turborama]

47. The blowout happened 24 days ago so that's 6 x Exxon Valdez or 70,560,000 gallons so far n/t

[JDPriestly]

32. This explains why they haven't just moved lots and lots of tankers in

to hose up the oil. That was the idea that occurred to me yesterday morning. And this man from Shell stated that this has been done before. MSNBC

It's the video of Jon Hofmeister of Shell on MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/37125994#371259...

There is just too much oil. And they are in denial about it.

[Merchant Marine]

67. Tankers don't even have the equipment to do that.

The way a tanker's manifolds and pumps are set up, the ship can only pump cargo between the ship and a shore facility. Tankers don't have any setup for "vacuuming" oil and seawater, or for separating the mixture once its on board.

Ships do have a seawater intake system to feed water to the water purifiers and fire pumps, as well as the engine heat exchangers for cooling, but that system could not be used to remove oil. (This was the reason behind the Iraq War spills, Saddam was hoping that the oil would foul the intakes on the US Fleet, disabling them.)

[JDPriestly]

94. Seems to me that such a mechanism could be constructed.

You could somehow pump the oil from the water into the tanker. I am not thinking that they would separate the mixture until they uploaded it to a storage facility. I think that they should prepare for the possibility that other alternatives do not work.

I heard a man from Shell on MSNBC suggest that tankers had skimmed the oil from a spill in the gulf some time ago. It was on Rachel Maddow's show yesterday or the day before.

[lib2DaBone]

33. Natural Gas being released into the salt water does not rise to the surface...

... the natural gas is absorbed into the ocean water... where it sucks the oxygen out of the sea.

What we are creating.. is an oxygen-depleted, putrid cess pool... thousands of miles wide... where all marine life will be destroyed.

[Dont_Bogart_the_Pretzel]

76. Nobody's talking about the damage the natural gas is doing..

The Gulf is so screwed.

[Raster]

34. This latest "worst" estimate may be the first of many. BP has already demonstrated that it is NOT

forthcoming with the facts--and in fact, at times, has downright lied. This "leak":rofl:could conceivably be stopped within days if BP changed its focus from trying to preserving their investment. If BP did not concern itself about the well AND field future proved reserves, their action plan would be different than what it is now. BP will NEVER willingly spend the money required to stop this disaster--that is just not in the shareholder's best interests. And please, no talk about "BP assuming all clean-up responsibility." Two words: Exxon Valdez.

The petroleum mafia doesn't pay to clean up their hideously toxic messes. You do.

And just so we have this in perspective, petroleum engineers who have seen what little information that BP has made public, describe this "leak" as a "volcano of crude oil."

[protocol rv]

38. And how would you stop the leak?

I wonder, since you know this subject so well, how would you stop the leak? I assume you do know something we don't know. :-)

[Raster]

45. High explosives could collapse the bore hole itself, but probably render the field useless.

Do you really believe the only options they have are ones that still allow them to be able to harvest part of the "leakage"? Domes, tophats, etc. Seriously. Once you change your focus from trying to preserve investment and future profits to STOPPING THE FUCKING OIL SPEWING AT ANY COST, other options present themselves.

[Stardust]

56. I read that it may the the second largest deposit ever discovered. Why

would the bore hole collapsing render the field useless? There seem to be hundreds of rigs drilling into it. Does BP not want to lose its stake?

[protocol rv]

60. I doubt it seriously

I can't envision explosives being able to collapse the well, it has been cased with several concentric steel pipes, all very high strength steel. My guess is the posts herein are made by people who don't understand the problem :-)

[Odin2005]

36. This is a disaster of apocalyptic proportions!

:grr:

[ixion]

44. On this we are in complete agreement

:grr: :argh:

[WinkyDink]

39. The Exxon Valdez at least was a known finite amount. The Earth? WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT WE'VE UNLEASHED

[Raster]

46. CORRECTION: We have no idea what THEY'VE UNLEASHED.

[caseymoz]

54. Well, we're going to have plenty of oil now.

All BP has to do is go to the beaches with some buckets.

[roamer65]

42. Wormwood.

I'm not religious, but it does remind me of the part of the book of Revelation where 2/3 of the seas are poisoned by "Wormwood".
Humans are creating their own demise, we need no help any deities.

[mikelgb]

43. no words

:puke:

[colsohlibgal]

49. Outrageous

Also outrageous is that we're already rubber stamping more off shore drilling.

Just another bitter pill to swallow and we'll be paying for this one for a long, long time. Obama could have made a huge difference and he blew it in so many ways, he frittered away all his capital, and I've been losing patience with Obama rationalists and apologists for some time.

[caseymoz]

50. 70,000 barrels per day, so right now it's as big as the Amoco Cadiz spill.

Exxon Valdez was minor league.

If this is finally correct, this would make the spill the 8th worst. I find even this estimate unbelievably low considering the extent of the slick, but I don't have any expertise.

If it is a correct estimate, though, the spill will become the 4th worst within the week.

And in about four and a half months, it will become the biggest spill ever, surpassing the Gulf War spill.

[theHandpuppet]

52. MMS approved 27 Gulf Drilling Ops AFTER the BP disaster

MMS Approved 27 Gulf Drilling Operations After BP Disaster
26 Were Exempted From Environmental Review, Including Two to BP

Salazar's "Moratorium" on New Drilling Permits Allows Continuation of the Same Flawed
Environmental Exemption Process that Allowed the BP Catastrophe

TUCSON, Ariz.— Even as the BP drilling explosion which killed eleven people continues to gush hundreds of thousands of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. Department of Interior’s Minerals Management Service (MMS) has continued to exempt dangerous new drilling operations from environmental review. Twenty-seven new offshore drilling projects have been approved since April 20, 2010; twenty-six under the same environmental review exemption used to approve the disastrous BP drilling that is fouling the Gulf and its wildlife.

“The MMS has learned absolutely nothing from this national catastrophe,” said Kierán Suckling, executive director of the Center for Biological Diversity, “It is still illegally exempting dangerous offshore drilling projects in the Gulf of Mexico from all environmental review. It is outrageous and unacceptable.”

The MMS became embroiled in controversy when it was revealed on May 5, 2010, that it exempted BP’s offshore drilling plan from environmental review by using a loophole in the National Environmental Policy Act meant only to apply to projects with no, or minimal, negative effects such as construction of outhouse and hiking trails. The controversy deepened when it was revealed that MMS exempts hundreds of dangerous offshore oil drilling projects in the Gulf of Mexico every year....

More at link: http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/news/press_releases/2010/post-disaster-permits-05-07-2010.html

[susanwy]

61. What is the harm now?

They can't f**k up the gulf anymore - let them drill - drill baby drill! The gulf will just be a big stinky cesspool now anyway.

( I supposed I need the :sarcasm: tag )

[liberation]

55. So where are the criminal charges?

WTF does any corporation have to do to get government to actually request responsibilities? At this point it is clear that a big petroleum corporation could get caught managing child prostitution rings on the side, and they would face absolutely no consequences.

Heck, some poor sap smoking a plant in some states may get a worse deal from justice, than whoever is responsible for what may be the destruction of important ecosystems in the gulf... never mind untold millions of people having their living conditions damaged beyond repair and their jobs evaporated.

We are not sustainable as a society if our priorities are really that out of whack.

[Flabbergasted]

59. BP Estimates it's 200,000 barrels a day...

http://abcnews.go.com/WN/bp-attempts-strategy-stop-oil-flow-gulf-mexico/story?id=10641228

[Parker CA]

63. Their estimate is gallons not barrels. nt

[lonestarnot]

62. Those dirty fuckers. Yeah, exactly what I thought. Liars will be liars.

[alp227]

64. I guess at that rate, when I become eligible for Social Security checks (in about 45 years)

the Gulf will still be frickin' oily. F.U.B.P.!!!!!!!!

[pezDispenser]

66. so sad

:cry:

[Botany]

69. We better cap that well or we are fucked

[reggie the dog]

75. If this oil makes it to France I hope the govt.

will sue british petrol,,

[obxhead]

85. It's sad that it would have to come to that.

Going all the way to France before a government sues BP.

[era veteran]

70. Put some liars in prison, Angola could take a few BP, Halliburton, &

Transocean executives. Where is their corporate person hood now?

[tanyev]

71. But it's OK, the BP CEO says it's only a drop in the ocean.

:grr:

[reggie the dog]

73. I heard in France on the news that it

was 50 to 80 thousand barrels a day about a week or 2 ago....

[Bragi]

78. Better regulation won't make deep water drilling "safe"

We are truly insane if we think that deep water oil drilling can be done "safely", and will not eventually result in the fouling of our oceans and coastlines on a massive scale.

Biggest thing to puzzle here is whether climate will kill us off before we get chance to totally fuck up the oceans.

We are doomed by our short-sightedness, greed and stupidity.

Have a nice day!

[fascisthunter]

81. The Damage the Wealthy and Corporate Powers Do to This Planet without being held responsible

is unforgivable. There are alternatives to supply us with our needs yet these motherfuckers insist, they have a corner on the energy market.

Oh, and this goes for those investing in oil... fuck you too!


also: they have the nerve to bitch about being taxed.

[Elmore Furth]

82. The real problem is BP's magical thinking, and our magical thinking

In the classic paper "The Paranoid Optimist," Haselton and Nettle observe, "Human cognition has often been shown to be biased...People also happear to have a variety of positive illusions ... which cause them to overestimate the likelihood that they will succeed in spite of the adversity they face." This overestimation that good things and overestimating the risk of rare catastrophic events is probably genetic.

http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/comm/haselton/webdocs/HaseltonNettle.pdf

Unfortunately, we select leaders in business and politics based on "optimism bias." We want people have a 'can do attitude' so we select people with cognitive biases that can cause disasters like the BP oil spill.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias

http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/16/wrong-about-risk-blame-your-brain/

Over the past twenty months the USA has experienced two cataclysmic disasters, the 2008 near meltdown of the financial system and the recent Gulf Coast ecological disaster resulting from a deep-sea oil leak. While both events resulted from failed oversight, they have a deeper genesis: magical thinking.

Several types of magical thinking are prevalent in American culture and influence political decisions. The most common is the belief that science can solve all problems. While an ancient belief - in previous generations scientist were sometimes regarded as magicians - it gained wide credence after World War II. Deployment of nuclear reactors was justified by the widespread belief that the terrible problem of spent fuel would eventually be solved by new scientific discoveries. Sixty years later, the problem of nuclear waste persists.

The collapse of the British Petroleum/Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico illustrates a variety of this form of magical thinking: if they can build it, it must be safe. (This same belief caused New Yorkers to regard the World Trade Center as indestructible.) In fact the drilling rig lacked an operational blowout preventer. Given the frequency of accidents on offshore oilrigs -- in just the Gulf of Mexico, there were 39 incidents in the first five months of 2009 -- reasonable oversight would have insisted on a state-of-the-art fully functional blowout preventer rather than blind faith.

e root cause of the 2008 meltdown of the financial system and the BP oil leak was magical thinking. As America faces difficult choices on deficit reduction and energy policy, shouldn't our elected officials act like rational adults?

What Caused the BP Oil Leak? Magical Thinking

[Altoid_Cyclist]

84. It was beautiful while it was still alive.

Yes I know... this is hopefully only hyperbole, but............

[Owl]

86. And they are going to try and suck out a 20" dia. pipe with a 6" one, ELEVEN times smaller in area!

At present a horrible unstoppable disaster.

[pundaint]

93. It could work, nothing sucks more than an oil business.

[Octafish]

87. Just a ''drop in the ocean.''

That's how the BP chief looks at it.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/05/14/bp-boss-oil-spill-a-drop-in-the-ocean-115875-22257320/

[glitch]

92. Just begging for his own lamp post. nt

[Uncle Joe]

88. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Barrett.

[Owl]

89. K&R

[pundaint]

91. Anybody who thought otherwise, is aggressively gullible.