my numbers
1. the fuel deal is only part of the problem
2. Iran's low-enriched uranium stockpile has almost doubled since last fall's offer
3. Iran must stop all enrichment
4. may be just a stalling tactic
5. missing details
Is new Iran nuclear swap deal a breakthrough?Sylvia Westall - Analysis
VIENNA
Mon May 17, 2010 6:47am EDT
VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran said on Monday it had struck a deal with Brazil and Turkey for a nuclear fuel swap but it was far from clear if that was enough to ease international concern over Tehran's atomic ambitions and avert new sanctions.
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* FOCUS ON FUEL DEAL
Diplomats say it is encouraging that Iran now appears to be accepting a swap outside Iranian soil and allowing the amount of low-enriched uranium -- enough for a single bomb if purified to a high enough level -- to be shipped out in one batch.
1. But they said Iran was trying to give the impression that it was the fuel deal which was at the center of problems with the West, rather than its nuclear ambitions as a whole.
"The deal is not the reason why Tehran is in trouble. It is the whole nature of the Iranian nuclear program and its refusal to answer questions," a Western diplomat said.
2. Western diplomats also said removing 1,200 kg is less valuable now because in the months of wrangling over the original IAEA deal, Iran's low-enriched uranium stockpile has almost doubled.
* WHAT ABOUT HIGHER ENRICHMENT ACTIVITIES?
Iran started higher enrichment in February, saying it would produce fuel itself. The escalation is a worry for the West because it brings Iran's enrichment closer to the levels needed to make bomb-grade material.
3. Diplomats say the West will likely dismiss the proposal if Iran continues to enrich uranium to higher levels.
Iran's atomic agency chief has said Iran would stop producing 20 percent-enriched uranium if it received fuel from abroad. But in recent talks between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna this idea was rejected.
"If they refuse to stop enriching to 20 percent and make this proposal for fuel, then why are they continuing the higher enrichment? There is no other peaceful justification," a Western diplomat said.
"This would be a deal-breaker," another said.
* WEST WANTS TO SEE THE FINE PRINT
4. The new proposal may allow U.N. Security Council members to argue against a fourth round of sanctions but until there are more details, Western powers are unlikely to be convinced this is more than a stalling tactic, diplomats said.
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5. Among the missing details are the questions of who will enrich the material to higher levels and who will make the fuel assemblies.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE64G2TP20100517