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CNBCThe possibility of a bankruptcy filing by the city of Harrisburg, Pa., the state capital, looms large these days-and it could be the first in a series, say some Wall Street traders.
Harrisburg, population 55,000, owes nearly $70 million in debt payments this year, and it's unclear where that money will come from. Harrisburg now has one of the lowest credit ratings of any municipality in the United States.
Harrisburg Mayor Linda Thompson told CNBC Wednesday that she had assembled a group of bond stakeholders, the city council and other interested parties to work out the crisis "so that we don't become the poster child of the world in terms of bankruptcy."
Municipal bond underwriters are monitoring Harrisburg, which has struggled to contain the costs of financing a troubled incinerator project.
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But investors and the Street can also short munis through credit default swaps, or CDS policies that pay out if an entity defaults.
The Markit MCDX, an index that tracks the cost of insuring against default of a basket of 50 municipalities, is on a recent high of $173,000 for $10 million of protection on a five-year bond-a point last reached near the beginning of this year. A swap that would pay out if the state of Pennsylvania defaults cost $112,000 for the same $10 million amount.
We need the names of the people buying the credit default swaps!