STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 5

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 5, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 4, 2010

Dow... 10,680.43 +44.05 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq... 2,303.57 +20.05 (+0.88%)
S&P 500... 1,127.24 +6.78 (+0.61%)
Gold future... 1,198 +2.30 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.96 +0.05 (+1.62%)
30-Year Bond 4.09 +0.04 +1.09%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Continuing Claims 07/24
Briefing.com 4500K
Consensus 4530K
Prior 4565K

08:30 Initial Claims 07/31
Briefing.com 460K
Consensus 455K
Prior 457K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[hamerfan]

17. New jobless claims take surprise jump

Initial requests for jobless benefits rose last week to their highest level since April, a sign that hiring remains weak and some companies are still cutting workers.
The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims for unemployment insurance rose by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 479,000. Analysts had expected a small drop. Claims have risen twice in the past three weeks.
Some of the increase stemmed from difficulties the government has in adjusting for seasonal factors. The Labor Department expected a large decline in claims last week as many auto companies usually shut their plants temporarily in early July. Claims were expected to rise during the shutdown and then fall.
But this year General Motors and other manufacturers skipped the shutdowns, so claims didn't fall last week as much as expected.
Before seasonal adjustment, claims fell by about 14,250 to 399,570.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38572831/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

[Dr.Phool]

18. Surprise!!!!

[Roland99]

19. Ok, so, isn't it *worse* then since the auto plant shutdowns did not occur?

oy vey.

[mbperrin]

45. Careful! You're introducing critical thinking skills AND math at the same time!

Could blow the tops off some people's heads!

[Hugin]

20. Lately, I've been wondering if it would be possible to do a huge search and replace on the bulk...

of the Corporate Media.

Looking for words such as "surprise", "unexpected", and "who could have foreseen" and replace them with a nonsense word such as "ookle" or maybe even nothing.

It would go a long way toward restoring legitimacy and confidence in the economy.

Right now in my mind's eye, I picture every one of these so-called economists with an expression of shock frozen on their faces resembling the look on a "Darwin Award" winner's mug at their postmortem.

[Roland99]

22. Oh, look! Here's one of those economists now!

[Hugin]

24. OMG! The old saying is true!

I had always heard, if you made a face and someone snuck up and patted you on the back it would stay that way forever!

[Dr.Phool]

25. Darwin Award Winners.

I recall reading an article a few years ago, in either Flight Safety or Flying Magazine They did an in depth analysis of cockpit voice recordings in fatal accidents.

In something like 95% of all incidents, the final two words spoken in the cockpit was "Oh shit".

Economists are the new "Oh shit" occupation.

[Hugin]

26. Hey, even printing that would be an improvement.

"When crash landing at night, turn on your landing lights and if you don't like what you see... Turn them off."

[AnneD]

27. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. OK, I cheated but don't tell Ozy. I got up early like I am training myself to do, but after I posted, I thought, what the hell, I am still on break and went back to bed.

Thanks Dr Phool. I had the sneaky suspicion that those were the last 2 words, either that or Oh Crap. Things are clipping along.

The big news is that the kid has her first serious crush. He is from the Bahamas and just graduated with his masters and has a job in his field. As she said when she broke the news to me...Mom, I have gone on many first dates, a few second dates, fewer 3rd dates-but Mom, I have been dating him for 3 months. Well, that is when I started asking questions. When I talked to him, my first words were "Don't make me violate my parole." That didn't scare him off so I guess it is serious. They won't talk seriously about marriage until she graduates and she is a junior this year. She already has enough hours but they are more a year based thing-no early graduation. So she will get a double major in a math heavy minor. Her mentor, the dept chairman is letting her take pretty much take what she wants as far as courses. She will be a teaching assistant which is $$$$. She is still the president of the student body and is planning a righteous Halloween Party. Despite the grief with my ex-I still think I did good (and make no mistake-I did the serious parenting).

I think our last sex talk was the most interesting one.:wow: I had always told her the basics but asked her to talk to me if she was ever seriously contemplating becoming sexually active. Dammit, I didn't think she would take me up on it.:spray: I have given the sex talk numerous times, but when they are older and it is your kid-it is still awkward. But I still would rather fell awkward and have her talk to me than feel comfortable and she alter her life in a preventable way. Like I said, I did the serious parenting. She is a good kid and growing into a fine human being-one of the better things I did.

So what does this have to do with economics-well, you have two kids trying to plan a future. They are saddled with debt before they even leave the gate. The good news is that I know that I made sure to give my daughter a good financial education- far better than I ever received. I hope all of you at SWT have done the same with those in your family that you can.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Roland99]

30. I tried pushing for a personal finance course back in the old Ky school district

Kids need to know what FICO means and how the scores are generally calculated, how lates can affect things greatly, how keeping a 3-6 month buffer of monthly expenses should be a requirement, how not to buy everything flashy or new, etc.

Probably just as important (and much easier on us parents :) ) than the birds and bees talk.

[AnneD]

37. Funny how parents will talk about sex before finances....

She was still a toddler when she had chores for pay. I would put a bathing suit on her, place her in the tub and let her clean it. She would clean the bath room for some "pink gum" bubble gum. That was the cheapest I ever got the bath room cleaned (of course I would have to redo it). I would offer her an old beat up quarter or a shiny new penny-she took the penny, When she started taking the quarter-I knew she was beginning to understand.

When she was in the 4th grade and wanted something-she said that she got child support and should be able to spend it. That was when I took out the family budget and let her work it with me. She wanted to take dance lessons and she thought she could cut back to achieve it. I took her to the second hand store (which she loved) and because she saved so much, she could take lessons. She had a job and I let her spend some, save some (and matched dollar for dollar because 1% does not encourage kids), and invest some in a mutual fund. She has forgotten about the mutual fund but I have been managing it and putting in extra here and there. One day it will make a nice legacy for her.

Her proudest moment was when some folks from the Fed Reserve came in to talk about new Houston Branch of the Dallas Fed Reserve. They were giving away containers of shredded bills to the student that could answer their questions correctly. She told me she answered 8 of the 10 questions and was handing out the containers to her friends and saved one for me. The one she answered that freaked even her out was when she knew the correct number of districts in the Fed Reserve. The folks took her aside later and asked her how she knew so much. "Mom, I didn't want to tell them that I remember you cussing so much about the Federal Reserve so I told them that we listened to NPR a lot." :spray:

I think it is no accident that civics, labour history and finances are not taught in schools now days and history only goes as far as Viet Nam. As George Carlin said," They don't want well-informed, well-educated people capable of critical thinking....They want obedient workers."

I don't know about you guys but I fear sex a whole lot less than losing my rights.

[Roland99]

41. love your tales, AnneD!

:)

[AnneD]

46. Thanks Roland....

I know that I don't always focus on economics-but I try. If you have kids, and esp. if you are a single Mom, you really have to use every spare moment as a teaching moment. Who would have every guessed that a walk through a vineyard would have resulted in a Circle of Life talk. I don't remember that in MY Dr. Spock book. You have to go with the flow when you have kids. Sometimes you miss the mark, sometimes you bunt, but sometimes you hit one out of the park.

She gave me one of the containers of shredded bills. If all else fails-I might be gluing those discarded bills back together for retirement.

.

[DemReadingDU]

76. You have raised a fine daughter!

Good job!

:applause:

[Warpy]

29. I always had to say it when a patient coded

It was like "Oh shit!" were magic words, once I said it I could wade in and do what needed to be done to try to save the patient's life. If I didn't say them, I fumbled until the code team got there.

I've also heard it as people's last words when something catastrophic happens.

Never underestimate the power of a good "Oh shit!"

Unfortunately, the smart guys have managed to shut off the demand side of the economy pretty efficiently, so even the magic words uttered by all economists regularly during the day won't save us.

I'd suggest replacement magic words: progressive income tax structure, cut the military budget, end the wars, create infrastructure, regulate the thieves out of business or into prison. Those might actually work.

[bain_sidhe]

55. I know I'm coming in late, but I have to jump in here

and say that one of my favorite science fiction series is about space-ship based "explorer corps" (they explore new planets) whose term for dying on a mission is called "going oh shit." As in:

"Hey, what ever happened to Smith?"

"I heard Smith went Oh Shit on some new planet in the Gamma quadrant." (Or where ever)

[AnneD]

65. On the hospital floor....

patients had the "sign of the Q (mouth open, tongue hanging out upon death)". Since we had to give report out in the open (illegal now) folks that were close to death were "circling the drain" (per Psycho) or my fav. "going to Chicago" (and I don't know why).

[TalkingDog]

31. Is "Surprise" = to or > than "Unexpected"? I'm developing a formula.....

n/t

[Hugin]

32. I'm developing an eroded oesophagus.

But, based on my "gut feel", "Unexpected" < "Surprise".

However, "Psychologically Important Support Level" trumps them all.


(Hey, do I get extra points for working the word "oesophagus" into a DU-SMW post?)

[Dr.Phool]

34. Are you casting oesophagus again?

[AnneD]

49. Better casting oesophagus...

than asparagus.

[Demeter]

58. But I LIKE Asparagus!

Toss it over here!

[AnneD]

60. Oh yes....

every one likes asparagus, until someone cuts the cheese.

[Demeter]

61. You don't put CHEESE on Asparagus!

Butter and lemon, or Hollandaise, or Alfredo...damn, now I have to go start dinner, and I have no ASPARAGUS! :cry:

[AnneD]

63. Uh...

I wasn't speaking of cheese literally-it was more of a euphemism sweetie, like the vapors, swamp gas.:blush:

[Demeter]

67. You don't put that on asparagus, either!

I'm sending you my cookbook collection...got a spare room?

[DemReadingDU]

77. I like asparagus with spaghetti sauce

sprinkled with parmesan cheese
Yum!

[ozymandius]

71. My favorite after-dinner treat is hydrogen sulfide.

The aroma rhymes with eggs.

[AnneD]

74. This doesn't involve...

your son pulling your finger does it?

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers above $82 in Asia as rally pauses

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $82 a barrel Thursday in Asia, pausing from a rally that lifted the commodity to a three-month high this week amid positive U.S. corporate earnings and economic figures.

Signs of improving U.S. oil demand helped support crude prices. In its weekly report Wednesday, the Energy Department said commercial oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, a bigger drop than analysts had expected.

Also on Wednesday, payroll company ADP said private employers increased hiring last month and a service sector index rose unexpectedly in July. Broadcaster CBS Corp., video game maker Electronic Arts Inc., online travel site Priceline.com Inc. and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. reported better than expected second-quarter earnings.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.2027 a gallon, gasoline skidded 0.19 cent to $2.1731 a gallon and natural gas held at 4.744 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. US economy adds private jobs but at lackluster pace

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US economy created more private jobs than expected in July but hiring has not been rapid enough to ease a severe jobless rate stifling recovery, payrolls firm ADP said.

Some 42,000 private-sector jobs were created following a revised June number of 19,000, ADP said ahead of a key government report Friday that is expected to show unemployment already at 9.5 percent ticking up.

Most economists had expected 25,000 private jobs to be established in July, the sixth consecutive monthly increase in hirings.

But ADP warned that the private job increases so far this year had averaged a modest 37,000, "with no evidence of acceleration."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100805/ts_afp/useconomyunemployment

[ozymandius]

4. Treasury says scaling back borrowing capacity

WASHINGTON – The Treasury Department said Wednesday that it has scaled back its annual borrowing capacity by $232 billion since April and plans further gradual cuts in coming months.

The cuts are coming after a massive expansion of the government's borrowing over the past two years as the annual federal deficit hit $1.41 trillion last year and is forecast to hit a record of $1.47 trillion this year.

Treasury officials said that the reductions in borrowing capacity can be achieved because the improving economy is boosting tax receipts and many of the emergency programs enacted to deal with the deep recession and financial crisis are being phased out.

The flood of borrowing forced Congress earlier this year to boost the limit on how much Treasury could borrow to $14.29 trillion. The current amount of debt subject to the limit stands at $13.2 trillion. Miller said that Treasury expects the current debt limit to be hit sometime in the first half of next year, which will require Congress to vote to raise the limit to allow the government to keep paying its bills.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100804/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_treasury_borrowing

[ozymandius]

5. Geithner blasts Bush policies for debt

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Bush administration's "misguided" policies are to blame for huge U.S. budget deficits, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner charged on Wednesday as he sought to build an election-year case for ending tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

With congressional elections looming in November, Geithner sought to regain the high ground on the issue of who bears responsibility for record budget gaps and to counter Republican labeling of Democrats as tax-and-spend, bailout-happy liberals.

Geithner said extending the Bush-era tax cuts for top income earners, as Republicans want, would force more borrowing to cover lost revenues and crimp more-effective remedies for boosting economic growth and hiring.

"Borrowing to finance tax cuts for the top 2 percent would be a $700 billion fiscal mistake," Geithner said. "It's not the prescription the economy needs now, and the country can't afford it."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100804/pl_nm/us_usa_treasury_geithner_tax

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It is quite possible that most people who frequent here would agree that continuing the Bush era cuts would be a massive mistake. The cartoon frames the issue nicely.

[DemReadingDU]

16. The toon is great!

Good morning!

[ozymandius]

10. Geithner Sees No Evidence Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said tax cuts don’t pay for themselves in economic growth, and he urged lawmakers to let the reductions for the wealthiest Americans expire.

Geithner dismissed the “long-discredited idea” that tax cuts generate enough growth-related income to offset their fiscal impact, in a speech in Washington today at the Center for American Progress, a policy research group run by John Podesta, an adviser to the Obama administration. “There is absolutely no evidence to support it,” he said.

The administration wants to let tax breaks expire for households earning more than $250,000 a year, while maintaining reductions for households earning less than that. The tax cuts, enacted in 2001 and 2003 during former President George W. Bush’s administration, are expiring Dec. 31. Geithner said the administration can’t afford to extend the reductions for higher- income households.

Geithner has said expiration of tax cuts for the wealthy would help shrink the deficit without hurting the recovery. He said today that the U.S. needs to abandon a Bush administration strategy of “running up huge debts, while incomes for most Americans stagnated and job creation was anemic.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aNSgOqTTsTv4

[tclambert]

44. But what about the Laffer curve?

Actually, I haven't heard the Republicans say much about the Laffer curve since the '80s. It was supposedly the intellectual justification for tax cuts (for the rich), though they never supplied any details. Now it seems they have simplified it down to leaving out the Laffer curve entirely. Of course they don't really care about balancing the budget, either.

[Dr.Phool]

56. The guy who invented the Laffer Curve

Couldn't even spell "Laugher" right. And it was his name.

[AnneD]

6. Morning Ozy...

:donut: Glad to be first rec this am. Trying to get use to these early mornings. Ran into one of the teachers that was let go last year. She may get out of education all together. She is weighing her options. It will be hard to replace these teachers and I don't think these Teach for America kids can handle the kids and do them justice.

[ozymandius]

8. G'morning, Anne.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
One teacher who was cut from staff last year shares your friend's sentiment. He was a teacher for fifteen years. He says that was plenty of time to accomplish what he wanted to do as a teacher. Now he is looking outside the education field.

New teachers need experienced teachers for ideas and other kinds of backup. When veterans are shown the door, the history lost does everyone a disservice.

[ozymandius]

7. Pimco’s El-Erian Says Chance of U.S. Deflation Is 25%

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. faces a 25 percent chance of deflation and a double-dip recession, according to Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund.

Companies are accumulating cash and individuals are saving, making it tougher to counter deflation, El-Erian said. That reduction in private-sector spending makes government policies to stimulate the economy less effective, he said.

A mix of the lowest U.S. inflation rate in four decades and concern that the global recovery will falter is boosting Treasuries, sending two-year yields to a record low this week. Bill Gross, who oversees the record $239 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, raised holdings of U.S. government-related debt in June to the highest level in eight months, according to the company’s website.

A U.S. report tomorrow will show the nation lost jobs for a second month in July, economists said. The unemployment rate climbed to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent, the survey showed.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2dyRNNgB2lU&pos=6

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The central theme is that companies and individuals are hoarding cash.

[ozymandius]

9. N.Y. Fed May Require Banks to Buy Back Faulty Loans

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York may seek to require banks to buy back its holdings of faulty mortgages and other assets acquired through the rescues of Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc., a spokesman said.

“We are involved in multiple efforts related to exercising our rights as investors in non-agency RMBS or CDO securities,” New York Fed spokesman Jack Gutt wrote in an e-mail, referring to residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations.

The Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other mortgage investors are seeking to force buybacks to rid their books of bad assets amid persistent losses from soured housing loans. Debt buyers and insurers, who can rescind their coverage, are combing through loan documents for faulty appraisals, inflated borrower incomes and missing documentation that can trigger contractual agreements to repurchase ineligible assets as insurers seek ways to void coverage or recoup costs.

The New York Fed holds $69.1 billion of assets that were placed in three holding companies that it established to bail out AIG and Bear Stearns in 2008. Maiden Lane LLC, named for the street bordering the New York Fed’s Manhattan headquarters, acquired about $30 billion of Bear Stearns assets that JPMorgan Chase & Co. didn’t want when it bought the company. Maiden Lane II and III, which were involved in AIG’s rescue, hold the remaining assets.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=afAUnb8LnMmA

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I wonder what the price discovery process will reveal about Big Shitpile.

[ozymandius]

11. Understanding Context: The Housing Boom & Bust

From Ritholtz:

Over at Economix, Harvard economics professor Ed Glaeser looks at the ultra-low interest rates of the aughts, and does not find them to be much to blame for the US Housing boom and bust:

“The most common explanation for the great surge in prices is the availability of easy credit, which took the form of low interest rates, high loan-to-value ratios and permissive approval of mortgages. These variables certainly affect housing prices, but they don’t seem to have moved nearly enough to explain the great price fluctuations of the past decade.”

Professor Glaeser fails to see many of the causal and exacerbating factors of the housing boom and bust, including those directly attributable to ultra low rates. Why don’t we review these factors, for the benefit of both the Professor as well as those laypeople those who may have missed them.

We have reviewed these in the past, but given the prof’s 30 year chart, I would like to walk through the broader context of what took place historically.

Too many people are looking for a single explanation for a highly complex set of circumstances. There were myriad causes of the Boom & Bust, and it is far more complex and nuanced than the over-simplifications we typically see.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/understanding-context-housing-boom-bust/

[Demeter]

15. Fraud Was the Biggest Contributing Factor

Fraud at every level in this sad excuse for an economy, from the employers who screwed over the workers, to the mortgage writers who screwed over everyone, to good ole W, who gagged the regulators and let the fraudsters all get away with it.

There's plenty of blame to go around.

[Roland99]

21. Fake credit reports fed Lee’s Summit mortgage fraud, authorities say

Fake credit reports fed Lee’s Summit mortgage fraud, authorities say
http://www.kansascity.com/2010/08/04/2129069/fake-credit-reports-fed-lees-summit.html

A federal grand jury has indicted two people in a large-scale scheme to buy expensive houses in Lee’s Summit by utilizing phony credit reports.

The indictment returned Wednesday in Kansas City charges a California real estate agent and a Florida businessman with concocting the scheme with several others, including two Kansas City-area men, to falsely obtain more than $2.7 million in mortgage loans.

False information was provided to mortgage lenders to obtain loans to buy six residential properties in Lee’s Summit ranging in price from $410,000 to more than $600,000, according to the indictment.

Federal prosecutors say it is a local example of such credit report fraud that is an emerging criminal trend around the country.

[ozone_man]

23. Buy them back at what Geitner paid for them?

The price discovery process would be interesting, since the mark to market price was something like $0.22 on the dollar, as I recall.

[AnneD]

28. Has anyone else noticed.....

Geitnner's change in tone lately. Talking about letting the Bush tax cuts expire. I know he hasn't "got religion", but do you think he finally "got math"? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Demeter]

38. I Hope He Got Scared

and I hope it was the O Man that scared him. But what are the odds? 20% maybe?

[AnneD]

39. I'm thinking...

he got math and then got scared. I don't think he can honestly be surprised. You have to know the truth to work two sets of books, other wise-what's the point?

[ozone_man]

40. I have noticed that.

Although there are areas like implementing the Volcker rule, that he is resisting. But, even GS seems to be spinning off the prop trading part of the business. I think Demeter is right, he must be listening to the O(zone) man. ;)

[Roland99]

42. it *is* quite the interesting turnabout. Seemed to coincide w/Greenspun's recent statement.

[Tansy_Gold]

48. Maybe he started reading SMW

Maybe he'll tell his boss about us???


TG, NTY

[AnneD]

51. And maybe...

we can put on a show to raise money to pay off the debt.

Nah, I just sit around and wait...one day my prince will come.....NOT!!!!

[ozymandius]

69. I personally punched him in the crotch.

:sarcasm:

[AnneD]

73. How did you get a lower number,,,,

the lines stretches around the corner and stretches down to at least 3 million folks..

[ozymandius]

12. G'bye for the day.

Time to get ready for the day. I hope everything goes smoothly for you.

:hi:

[Festivito]

13. Debt: 08/03/2010 13,301,637,817,150.95 (UP 4,811,157,761.42) (Tue)

(Down a little. Good day.)
Three jobs, two should have been cancelled. Neighbor has 20's from 1950 that do not work for the yellow pen.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,771,462,133,533.12 + 4,530,175,683,617.83
DOWN 228,970,360.68 + UP 5,040,128,122.10

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,227.83 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,806,024 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,935.38.
A family of three owes $128,806.13. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,741,231,158.46.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,210,236,182.87.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,947,096,421.44.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 210 reports in 307 days of FY2010 averaging 6.63B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 901 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/03/2010 13,301,637,817,150.95 BHO (UP 2,674,760,768,237.87 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,391,808,813,639.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,654,756,407,095.47 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/14/2010 +000,197,224,468.53 ------------********
07/15/2010 +047,740,634,202.02 ------------**********
07/16/2010 +000,234,726,558.99 ------------********
07/19/2010 -000,002,380,240.85 ----- Mon
07/20/2010 +000,028,467,145.72 ------------*******
07/21/2010 +000,002,455,391.44 ------------******
07/22/2010 +010,637,573,043.16 ------------**********
07/23/2010 -000,409,271,286.12 ---
07/26/2010 +000,027,014,896.10 ------------******* Mon
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---

131,998,588,013.37 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4490797&mesg_id=4490814

[Festivito]

53. Debt: 08/04/2010 13,302,301,677,300.10 (UP 663,860,149.15) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
A day off for paperwork, my paperwork.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,771,791,514,324.99 + 4,530,510,162,975.11
UP 329,380,791.87 + UP 334,479,357.28

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,227.76 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,812,670 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,936.6.
A family of three owes $128,809.79. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,520,475,897.19.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,232,364,854.51.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,847,604,413.19.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 211 reports in 308 days of FY2010 averaging 6.60B$ per report, 4.52B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 900 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/04/2010 13,302,301,677,300.10 BHO (UP 2,675,424,628,387.02 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,392,472,673,788.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,650,170,538,742.75 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/15/2010 +047,740,634,202.02 ------------**********
07/16/2010 +000,234,726,558.99 ------------********
07/19/2010 -000,002,380,240.85 ----- Mon
07/20/2010 +000,028,467,145.72 ------------*******
07/21/2010 +000,002,455,391.44 ------------******
07/22/2010 +010,637,573,043.16 ------------**********
07/23/2010 -000,409,271,286.12 ---
07/26/2010 +000,027,014,896.10 ------------******* Mon
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********

132,130,744,336.71 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4492512&mesg_id=4492536

[Demeter]

14. Good Morning, Ozy and All

I just saw a shooting star burning over the condo I want to buy for my Younger Kid. So I made a wish!

We've had 3 days without a crisis at the condo association. I could get used to this. Amazing how much churning (gastric and otherwise) one out-of-place person can cause....well, just think of some of the incompetents we have in political office!

I won't compare our dearly departed board member with W, but you get the idea.

[TalkingDog]

33. Wheat prices going through the roof.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-04/wheat-surges-to-22-month-high-on-russian-drought-corn-soybeans-advance.html

"As of today, Russia has no grain market," said Kirill Podolsky, the chief executive officer of Valars Group, the country's third-biggest grain trader. Valars will stop exports immediately because shipments may be held at customs until the start of the ban, he said. "This will be a catastrophe for
farmers and exporters alike."

Cornmeal (and grits, but since those are regional) has doubled in price per pound since 06. It is projected to increase 400%.

Some of it is environmental, but there are a lot of ghouls making "potential" money off of real people's starvation.

[Dr.Phool]

35. By "ghouls". is Goldman in the equation?

The devil incarnate.

[Robbien]

36. Actually, The New Homeowner Bailout Is A Massive Bailout Of The Banks

Let's talk a little bit more about how a mortgage principal forgiveness plan by Fannie and Freddie would play out.

Yes, underwater homeowners would be bailed out (perhaps).

But it's also a great for the banks.

Here's why.

Everyone agrees that the only serious way to keep people in their homes is through cramdowns. The problem with that is that this instantly demolishes the mark-to-myth assets that banks hold on their balance sheets. There's literally no way you can keep up the lie once the the principal on a mortgage has been written down.

So rather than push through a scheme like this, and make the banks take the hit, the GSEs (and by extension the Treasury, and by extension The Federal Reserve) takes the hit, leaving bank balance sheets intact.

http://www.businessinsider.com/actually-the-new-fannie-and-freddie-homeowner-bailout-is-a-massive-bailout-of-the-banks-2010-8

Gag me with a spoon. Whowudaknode, another bankster bailout! How 'unexpected'.

[Roland99]

43. is this a bigger version of what Morgan Stanley floated yesterday?

[Robbien]

47. There has been so much written about it

in all the financial blog sites that I forget it is still in the talking stage. Even GOPer sites are amassing a campaign to fight it. I believe this program is the same one you referred to in yesterday's SMW.

There is so much talk that the Fed told CNBC to tell folks today that they deny anything is happening with a Freddie and Fannie bailout. That alone tells me that something is happening with Freddie and Fannie.

[Roland99]

50. Ex-broker bankrupt -- investors seek missing money

Ex-broker bankrupt -- investors seek missing money
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-broker-bankruptcy-20100804,0,827930.story

The Sanford businessman and his wife, Sharon, filed for personal-bankruptcy protection last month, culminating a series of events that had led to his expulsion from the securities business by industry regulators.

The couple face potential claims from more than 100 individual investors from Florida to California, according to documents filed in U.S. bankruptcy court in Orlando. Creditors may also include more than 70 banks, credit-card companies and other corporate entities.

...

Securities regulators barred Pizzuti from the business in late 2009 after he refused to cooperate with a probe into his alleged misuse of client funds. He was one of more than 2,000 brokers nationwide barred or suspended in recent years amid the market upheaval, regulators say.

The former religious talk-show host has denied any wrongdoing, blaming his predicament on the bad economy and its impact on some big real-estate investments he had made.

Surprised he didn't try and use the "devil made me do it" defense.

[AnneD]

75. He could have blamed the loss...

on hookers. Folks would have believed that and he could have squirreled the money away. These folks have no imagination.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

52. Incense says "Smoke & Mirrors."

[Robbien]

54. This supreme court confirmation

Not much to celebrate there for people who worry about corporate interests influence on the Supremes. Now, on corporate matters versus people's interest, decisions will come down in favor of corporates 6-3 instead of the previous 5-4.

:(

[Demeter]

59. Michael Hudson Says She's a GS Plant

Nothing surprises me any more. It's sad, isn't it?

[Dr.Phool]

57. So what kind of unexpected crap can we expect tomorrow?

[Demeter]

62. I Dunno. Haven't even started to think of a theme

Any suggestions?

[AnneD]

64. Well, we are in the dog days of summer....

might want to use that. A salute to mans best friend or as Truman once said-if you want a friend in Washington-get a dog. I think that might be good. We can do blue dogs, yellow dogs, Hounds of the Baskerville, hounds from hell, dogs of war etc..

[Demeter]

66. But I don't know anything about 3 Dog Night!

I'd need help with the music part

[AnneD]

70. We can dream of 3 dog nights....

nights so cold it takes three dogs on the bed to keep you warm.

Others:
How much is that doggie in the window
The Ballad of the Red Baron
BINGO
Salty Dog
Who Let the Dogs Out
I Wanna Be Your Dog - The Stooges
Black Dog - Led Zeppelin
Dogs - Pink Floyd
Martha My Dear - The Beatles
Atomic Dog - George Clinton
Hound Dog - Elvis Presley
Rain Dogs - Tom Waits
Bird Dog - The Everly Brothers
Old King - Neil Young
Walking The Dog - Rufus Thomas
Black Eyed Dog - Nick Drake
Shake Dog Shake - The Cure
Diamond Dogs - David Bowie
Dogs Are Everywhere - Pulp
I Love My Dog - Cat Stevens

[Demeter]

68. You can't be Sirius!

Never hand Demeter a straight line or an opening....

[AnneD]

72. I had thought of Sirius...

but I was thinking of Sirius entering the night sky.

[DemReadingDU]

78. Cerberus

Cerberus - is a multi-headed hound (usually three-headed)<[br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerberus

Yikes!

[DemReadingDU]

79. Romer to quit as Obama adviser

8/5/10 Romer to quit as Obama adviser

Domenico Montanaro writes: National Journal's Victor will have the scoop in tomorrow's edition of the National Journal magazine that Obama economic adviser Christina Romer is quitting the post. It all stems from her feeling -- despite her title as chairwoman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers -- that Larry Summers has more influence with the president.

Victor quotes "a source with insight into the White House economics team," who says:

“She has been frustrated. She doesn’t feel that she has a direct line to the president. She would be giving different advice than Larry Summers , who does have a direct line to the president. She is ostensibly the chief economic adviser, but she doesn’t seem to be playing that role."

And he quotes banking consultant Bert Ely, who faults Summers for the missed jobless rate projection. (The administration posited that it would be just 8% if the stimulus passed, yet it is nearly 10% now.)

“You have to wonder why Summers isn’t the one that should be taking the fall," Ely says, per Victor. "But Larry is a pretty good bureaucratic infighter.”

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/08/05/4828231-romer-to-quit-as-obama-adviser

[Demeter]

80. That's the Polite Way of Phrasing It

I can't print the impolite way.

[AnneD]

81. I am so ....

not surprised, unlike some eCONomists. This might explain why Obama is acting somewhat clueless to the anger outside the beltway. I still thibk he is too smart to be caught off guard like this-thus I conclude he has been bought off. Or he could be one of those pod people.

[UpInArms]

82. good for Romer - refusing to act like this is a legitimate position - and in the

process giving that POS Summers (rhymes with bummers) cover.

Summers is just a crapweasel trying to preserve his "legacy" (hmmmmm.... where did I hear that ???? :D )