STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 18

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 18, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 17, 2010

Dow... 10,405.85 +103.84 (+1.01%)
Nasdaq... 2,209.44 +27.57 (+1.25%)
S&P 500... 1,092.54 +13.16 (+1.22%)
Gold future... 1,228 -0.50 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.64 -0.01 (-0.19%)
30-Year Bond 3.77 -.00 (-0.11%)

---

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

---

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Report

10:30 Crude Inventories 08/14
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -2.99M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls on report showing rise in US supplies

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices fell Wednesday in Asia after a report showed U.S. crude supplies swelled last week, indicating demand for fuel may be weakening.

The gains ran out of steam after the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that crude inventories rose sharply by 5.87 million barrels last week, against market expectations for a drop in supplies.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, heating oil fell 1.2 cents to $2.014 a gallon and gasoline fell 2.2 cents to $1.931. Natural gas eased 0.2 cent to $4.265 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Roland99]

31. BREAKING: EIA reports 800,0000-barrel decrease in inventory

that drop in oil won't last long now.


What an opposing number from the API's release yesterday.

[ozymandius]

3. Obama says recession recovery to take few years

SEATTLE – A campaigning President Barack Obama said Tuesday it will take a few years to dig the nation out of the recession, warning impatient voters that any candidate promising faster results "is just looking for your vote."

The president's economic outlook, coming in the heat of a divisive midterm campaign stretch, reflected his tricky political reality. He must try to persuade people soured by the sagging economy that they should re-elect Democratic leaders now, but he also is laboring to get voters to measure his efforts with a long view, as he looks ahead to his own re-election campaign in 2012.

Obama's heavy fundraising tour, touching just about every region of the country in three days, underscores the stakes of the November election. It is one that will be seen as a referendum on Obama and on Democratic control of Congress.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100818/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama

---

Obama could do everyone a favor by making August recess firings. You probably know who is at the top of my list.

[ozymandius]

4. AP Poll: Obama at new low for handling economy

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama earned his lowest marks ever on his handling of the economy in a new Associated Press-GfK poll, which also found that an overwhelming majority of Americans now describe the nation's financial outlook as poor.

Eleven weeks before the Nov. 2 balloting, just 41 percent of those surveyed approve of the president's performance on the economy, down from 44 percent in April, while 56 percent disapprove. And 61 percent say the economy has gotten worse or stayed the same on Obama's watch.

Still, three-quarters also say it's unrealistic to expect noticeable economic improvements in the first 18 months of the president's term. And Obama's overall approval rating was unaffected; it remained at 49 percent, in part because most Americans still like him personally.

Republicans are trying to convince Americans that the GOP can create the jobs that Obama hasn't delivered. Obama and his Democrats are pleading for the frustrated public to give them more time to prove that their economic fixes will work.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100818/ap_on_bi_ge/us_ap_poll_obama_economy

---

The Republicans may pray for short memories to boost their potential for electoral gains. But it does strike me as very odd that the Party of No would pursue a high profile nihilistic agenda of increasing the numbers and severity of suffering among the people they need at the polls.

[Dr.Phool]

16. Pray for short memories? Welcome to Amnesiastan.

The average American voter can't remember Jack Schitt. You remember him. He was the last president. The one who started all these wars, bailed out the banks, cut taxes for the rich.

Now, we've got Jack Schitt Jr. People confuse him with his predecessor. He just continues Jack Schitt's policies of bailouts and wars. And picks over the carcass that's left of the American citizen, and hands it to the insurance and pharmaceutical industry.

He is widely heralded for putting those damn commie libruls in their place. They have a lot of nerve, reminding him of his Jack Schitt policies.

[Po_d Mainiac]

17. A beautiful rant Doc :bounce: n/t

[Demeter]

11. A Few More Years--This is NOT a REcession, Dammit!

Recessions don't take years to recover from.

Could we have a little honesty, here? Especially since there was no "recovery" from the last "REcession", unless you count the fraud....

[DemReadingDU]

12. Two Economic Bubble Graphs

There is not going to be a recovery any time soon. Check out these 2 graphs...

If you are wondering where we are in this bubble, mania, Ponzi world that we are living in, check out this 1st graph by Jean-Paul Rodrigue. We are at the point labeled 'Return to Normal'. No one knows when the steep dive labeled 'Fear' will begin, but it is coming.




Click link for larger graph.
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/images/Manias%20Bubbles.pdf

If interested, read this link for additional info about this graph by Jean-Paul Rodrigue.
Look for Bubbles, Manias and Bears, oh my... (01/18/2006)
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/jpr_blogs.html
Jean-Paul Rodrigue's Bio
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/

This 2nd graph shows the amount of total credit market debt as a % of GDP. We've all heard about the Roaring Twenties followed by the Great Depression during the 1930's. Looking at the Current Conditions, it appears that another Great Depression is coming.



Click link for updated and larger graph.
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/454a.pdf

If interested, read this link for additional info about debt, and more graphs
http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=SpecialReport&newsletterid=1534&menugroup=Home

Those who do not learn the lessons of history are destined to repeat them.
George Santayana - more paraphrases and variants
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Santayana

[Po_d Mainiac]

14. Bullshit attempt to keep the bubble inflated

The Federal Housing Administration agreed in March to insure mortgages for apartments at the 98-unit Gramercy Park development, known as Tempo. That enables buyers to make a down payment of as little as 3.5 percent in a building where apartments are listed at $820,000 to $3 million.

The FHA, created in 1934 to make homeownership attainable for low- to moderate-income Americans, is now providing a lifeline to new Manhattan luxury condominiums after sales stalled. Buildings featuring pet spas, concierges and rooftop lounges are applying for agency backing to unlock bank financing for purchasers. The FHA guarantees that if a homebuyer defaults on his mortgage, the agency will pay it.

With apartments over $1 million, FHA isn’t going to help you,” Behin said. “You’d have to put down 30 percent to get the loan of $729,000. And if you have 30 percent to put down, a bank will loan to you without FHA.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid...

I have two cases of heartburn here. One if there are no buyers then the price is grossly inflated. Second, if the price is inflated, then those that enter with a 3.5% DP will be underwater before the ink dries on the deed. Wash rinse repeat..This is how housing blew the snot outa the economy in the first place! :grr:

[Demeter]

23. Shakes Head Sadly, Bites Lip

to keep from vomiting obscenities into the cool morning air.

I guess I really ought to just get out of Dodge.

I like Dodge. I was born here, as were the last 3 generations of my family. I'm doing good work. I could be instrumental on a local level in the resurrection and restructuring, once the collapse is complete. I could even see that my community weathers the trip on the way down to 3rd world status.

But damn it, why do I have to do this at age 55? Why couldn't it have happened before I was loaded down with my current life's burdens and the ongoing decline of aging? I don't have the time and money to take care of myself, even, let alone a larger population.

If we had Single Payer, it would be a very different world. Many more people would be in a position to lift their heads and hands to community work. They would have the health and money and security to try.

I'm spending $350/month on health insurance I cannot afford to access for two of us (the Kid is fully covered under Medicaid). It will only get worse when Obamacare kicks in. Massachusetts is already going broke with Romneycare--which is probably a better version.

The Elites had to destroy America before America destroyed them by spreading freedom, equality and democracy around the world. They had to make America into a war machine for hire by the Corporations, and destroy America's reputation as a Land for freedom, justice, and all that.

We have to fight back. We can't just flee to Europe or Canada. The dream cannot be allowed to die. Too many lives and futures are at stake.

[Joe Chi Minh]

38. You have a big heart, Demeter.

[tclambert]

51. I recently learned how to make mozzarella.

1 gallon of milk + rennet + citric acid + about 2 1/2 hours = CHEESE. So after the apocalypse, the local warlord will want to keep me alive if he ever wants pizza again.

[florida08]

47. sort of

This is how housing blew the snot outa the economy in the first place!

Don't forget those wonderful phony derivatives that are still trillions in the red. Did Finance reform get rid of those? lol
Yes...Wash Rinse Repeat.

[Dr.Phool]

15. Who is he trying to persuade?

Must be Republicans, because they sure don't need us retarded professional leftists.

[Roland99]

20. Can he fire himself?

;-)

[Demeter]

24. Sure! There Must Be 50 Ways to Leave Office

and the country would survive. Maybe even thrive.

I envy Poland. In one plane crash, they decapitated both the government and the religious establishment. They got a real chance to start over, if not afresh, at least without massive beholdings.

[jtuck004]

35. I haven't watched them a lot lately - is this the first time Obama

has publicly acknowledged that it is going to take years to recover? I don't recall hearing much other than we are in a recovery from last summer. I heard a repeat of the "years" comment again on CNBC this am, where he is talking in Ohio, I think it was. So are they now on a campaign to assuage everyone, let them know it's bad, they know it's bad, and they really feel for them? A pre-Nov vote strategy, while they talk about ways to lower spending instead of investing in people?

Just a note - I try to rec this every day, neuter at least one of the drive-bys ;) Thank you for this regular post - it's informative.

HA, writing this, saw a guy say that tax cuts are the worst way to stimulate the economy, thought Larry Kudlow was gonna spit up his cofee;)

[Po_d Mainiac]

36. You'll get much better info from the Cartoon Channel, than CNBS

As for Kun*low...I pray for the day that someone pounds his fat face soo hard it leaves welts on long dead ancestors.

[jtuck004]

37. Actually it was just still on from the Squawk segment,

Mark Haines has some interesting stuff once in a while - such as yesterday when some guy from the CATO institute started
talking about how Fannie and Freddie started this whole mess (typical CATO crap) and Mark stopped him right there and corrected
him about their real lack of involvement before he let the guy talk any more. It was great...

Kudlow just follows his ideological head, way too predictable to be useful...but, like you, sure wish he had been eating a bagel when that guy said that.

[Warpy]

55. If my memory is serving me correctly, I remember

that he's said this before, only it wasn't picked up by CNBC the other times as far as I know.

What is really going on right now is that they know they can't get much through this Congress, full of conservative dead wood in both parties, all bent on pasting together the system that has failed the majority.

Everything hinges on the election this fall, which is why the GOP can't stop crowing about a 1994 type victory to restore their rightful place as the pro monarchy party. I doubt they will get that victory, although I do see the majority being lessened, hopefully by a number of Blue Dogs and not progressives. I also hold out for a faint hope that people out there aren't the big fools I thought they were in 1994 and that our lead increases, again lessened by the all too acceptable losses of Blue Dogs.

People I run into in every day life all feel Congress is due for a house cleaning, but the feeling is still that their guys are fine, it's your son of a bitch who has to go, so I'm not holding out much hope for anti incumbent fever this time.

[jtuck004]

56. OK thanks.

Yea, I first read his remarks in the paper (Spokane) after he spoke in Seattle. Did a little googling to see if I could find it anywhere else, but nothing so far. And I have seen nothing until this on MSNBC.

I think what he is trying to do is take the wind out of the opposition comments about "well they said it would only be 8%" or "they said we were in recovery, but the stim ain't working" - etc.

Sounds like he is lowering expectations, which I think is too bad - I wish he would spend his time hammering out and then taking to the airwaves to sell a jobs program, making it very apparent who is building the brick wall to keep it from happening. He may not have the votes now, but he could make them stand up and shout their opposition to make it apparent...

Thanks for that.

[ozymandius]

60. Calling it a Depression that started in 2008 would be a good first step

in selling that jobs program and other programs aimed toward recovery. Jeebus! I would love some honesty at this point.

[jtuck004]

61. Me too. n/t

[ozymandius]

59. Recessions can dissipate in a year. DEPRESSIONS take years

to go away.

Let's be honest. This is a Depression like the Long Depression of 1870.

[Festivito]

5. Debt: 08/16/2010 13,356,994,188,341.44 (UP 41,576,236,466.44) (Mon)

(Up a lot. Good day.)
I'm cleaned out in so many ways, e.g. my:
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,825,308,128,496.03 + 4,531,686,059,845.41
UP 38,527,213,023.81 + UP 3,049,023,442.63

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.93 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,892,424 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,102.04.
A family of three owes $129,306.11. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,322,292,449.58.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,903,014,463.02.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,777,110,770.67.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 219 reports in 320 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.52B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 888 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/16/2010 13,356,994,188,341.44 BHO (UP 2,730,117,139,428.36 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,447,165,184,829.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,650,672,788,946.38 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon

127,388,138,797.29 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4506317&mesg_id=4506349

[Festivito]

45. Debt: 08/17/2010 13,364,739,861,340.53 (UP 7,745,672,999.09) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Survived a look up between the buttocks. Working off the effects now.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,825,395,074,863.64 + 4,539,344,786,476.89
UP 86,946,367.61 + UP 7,658,726,631.48

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.86 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,899,070 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,126.11.
A family of three owes $129,378.32. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,427,656,821.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,161,203,562.99.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,901,128,340.31.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 220 reports in 321 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 887 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/17/2010 13,364,739,861,340.53 BHO (UP 2,737,862,812,427.45 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,454,910,857,828.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,654,337,891,300.66 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******

126,932,879,080.74 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4507857&mesg_id=4507869

[ozymandius]

6. Judge asks SEC, Citi for more information

WASHINGTON – A federal judge said Monday she's not ready to approve the government's $75 million settlement with Citigroup Inc. of civil charges it misled investors about billions in potential losses from subprime mortgages.

U.S. District Court Judge Ellen Segal Huvelle asked the Securities and Exchange Commission and the banking titan to submit legal papers in support of the proposed accord. The judge said at a hearing that she needed more information before she could approve it.

When the housing bust hit in 2007 and borrowers defaulted, Citigroup's losses reached tens of billions of dollars on complex instruments linked to mortgages, pushing the bank to a financial precipice.

Citigroup had said the exposure was $13 billion or less. The SEC said it exceeded $50 billion.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100816/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sec_citigroup_settlement

[Demeter]

25. Good for her!

[ozymandius]

7. Treasury Yield Near 17-Month Low on Forecasts for Fed Purchases

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury 10-year yields were near a 17-month low on speculation the Federal Reserve will increase its Treasury purchases in the coming weeks to stem a slowdown in U.S. economic growth.

The Fed plans to buy Treasuries due from August 2016 to August 2020 tomorrow, after purchasing $2.551 billion of securities yesterday, to keep borrowing costs low. James Bullard, president of the Fed Bank of St. Louis, said the central bank may need to buy more if inflation keeps slowing.

The 10-year note yield fell two basis points to 2.62 percent at 8:50 a.m. in London, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 2.625 percent security due August 2020 rose 3/16, or $1.88 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 1/16. Yields dropped to 2.56 percent on Aug. 16, the lowest since March 2009.

Most economists say Treasury yields will climb by year-end. Ten-year rates will increase to 3.17 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of banks and securities companies with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_VXaDpy0Zuc&pos=2

[ozymandius]

8. There may be lessons in here for each industrialized nation.

Iceland Cuts Rate to 7% as Krona Gains, Prices Ease (Update1)

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland’s central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by a percentage point after the island’s currency, sheltered by capital controls for the past two years, continued to strengthen and inflation eased.

Sedlabanki lowered the seven-day collateral lending rate to 7 percent, the Reykjavik-based bank said on its website today. The bank also cut the deposit rate to 5.5 percent from 6.5 percent. Policy makers have reduced the benchmark 11 times from a record 18 percent since obtaining a $4.6 billion loan from a group led by the International Monetary Fund at the end of 2008.

Capital controls, imposed following the failure of Iceland’s three largest lenders in October 2008, have protected the krona from a sell-off. The currency has gained 22 percent against the euro since a Nov. 12 low, stemming consumer price gains. Inflation slowed 0.9 point to 4.8 percent last month, the lowest rate in almost three years.

The Supreme Court on June 16 banned the indexation of loans to foreign exchange rates, leaving banks liable for currency losses on as much as $28 billion in debt. The move prompted Moody’s Investors Service on July 29 to warn it may lower Iceland’s credit grade to junk, should the ban delay a recovery or force the government to increase its debt burden by funding a bank rescue.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajfuiK0dX5aU&pos=6

[Demeter]

28. And the World Didn't End!

One doesn't have to believe the banksters' line of bullshit. One just has to have the basic bravery to say NO. NO to theft, fraud, abuse, and destruction of freedom and rule of law. NO to warrantless, unjustified surveillance, NO to crony looting, NO to illegal Supreme Court decisions.

[ozymandius]

9. Germany Ignores Soros as Exports Boom at Consumers’ Expense

....
With exports driving the fastest economic growth since reunification, consumers are failing to respond in kind as companies from Siemens AG to Daimler AG hold fast to the wage restraint that’s given them an international edge. The result: Europe’s largest economy, four times more reliant on exports than the U.S., is firing on only one cylinder.


French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, the U.S. Treasury and billionaire George Soros have already urged Germany to do more to smooth out trade flows they say are still too lopsided and pose an obstacle to a global recovery.

Foreign sales accounted for 41 percent of German gross domestic product in 2009, compared with 13 percent in Japan and 11 percent in the U.S.

The gap between German retail stocks and the DAX is widening. Metro AG, Germany’s largest and the world’s third biggest retailer, has declined 3 percent this year as domestic sales fell. Praktiker AG, Germany’s second biggest home- improver, is down 18 percent and Beiersdorf AG, the maker of Nivea handcream, has dropped 5 percent.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aREs0l7g7lSQ&pos=3

---

This is a see-saw story. Germany has been the target of justified criticism for years now as its economy is so heavily dependent on the export model. Meanwhile there are stories celebrating Germany's strength as the world's fourth biggest economy, measured by GDP. Now we see a similar dynamic in Germany as we experience in the United States: company profits are up but the benefits outside the Wall Street loop feel like vapor at the macro consumer level.

[ozymandius]

10. G'morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut: Time to head for the door. Have a nice day, everyone. Unreccers too.

:hi:

[MattSh]

27. Unreccers don't read this far... n/t

[Demeter]

13. US oil speculators fined for $100-a-barrel "vanity trade"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7950879/US-oil-speculators-fined-for-100-a-barrel-vanity-trade.html

The US commodities regulator has imposed a $12m (£7.7m) fine on oil traders responsible for speculatively pushing the price of oil above the $100-a-barrel mark for the first time in January 2008.

The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined a former division of ConAgra Foods for its involvement in the so-called "vanity trade" which was responsible for purposefully pushing up the price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

The levy is intended to send a clear message that the regulator is intent on finding and fining those individuals and companies which were responsible for pushing oil to $147-a-barrel by July 2008.

The surge in oil prices was blamed on speculators by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic, and has led to increased scrutiny in the crude oil market. The increase in fuel prices hurt road and air travel, and exacerbated the onset of the global recession on large parts of the economy.

The "vanity trade" occurred on January 2, 2008, when a oil trader bought 1,000 barrels for $100 each when the prevailing price was 40 cents lower.

At the time, it was not known who the end client was. But the CFTC penalty order states that the client was ConAgra Trade Group (CTG), a division of ConAgra Foods, the US food conglomerate.

"CTG was the first to purchase NYMEX crude oil futures contracts at the then-historic price (also known as a "print") of $100," reads the CFTC's order. The fine was levied for manipulating the market, and creating an inflated price.

[florida08]

46. good

they should be removed. ConAgra..imagine that.

[florida08]

18. morning watchers

here's a frigtening look at how unemployment has moved across the country in 3 short years.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/17/how-unemployment-crisis-h_n_685143.html

[Dr.Phool]

19. Holy shit! It looks like an epidemic.

It gives new meaning to the term "Purple State".

[DemReadingDU]

21. black, dead state

:(

[Demeter]

22. What Goes Up Artificially Will Come Down...

50 points in 15 minutes...

[Hugin]

26. I keep reading there is another bubble/bust cycle in motion.

But, what is the bubble? Hubris? What?

I looked back over the past (All of the way to the Tulip Bulb Craze) and in each bubble I could identify a physical commodity which was the object of manipulation... This time, however, I am at a loss.

I get a feeling it's artificial in every sense. The only two things I can attribute this to are either that it is an abstract "Technical Bubble" meaning that trading is occurring on the generalized acceptance based on nothing, but, Magical Thinking that there must be a bubble there... or this is an artifact of Algo HFT. One of those two things. Most likely, since the first assumption is built into the Algos used by the second. It's a combination of the two. GIGO, man.

There is no, there... There.

:shrug:

[Demeter]

29. It's a Ponzi Scheme

and money in the abstract is the essence of the bubble.

There isn't any real thing involved--not since real estate blew up. They just keep churning and churning, and mostly in other nations, now.

[Hugin]

34. Ah! Churning... That was the word I was groping for...

Thanks.

[Roland99]

30. I think it's multiple

there's still oil speculation

then there are the "precious" metals.

then consumable commodities (look at the wheat "crisis").


The markets are YEARNING for SOMETHING to sink their pointy teeth into and when they find it, they sink them in deep and fast.

[Dr.Phool]

32. Don't forget chocolate!

Women will destroy civilization over this one.

:hide: In the bunker with my peppermint patties.


and this:



Thanks Tansy, I'm figuring out that Picasa thing

[Roland99]

33. awwwwww...

dang my gf's and her son's allergies/asthma.


I SOOO want another cat (or a dog) but, alas, we can't.

[Po_d Mainiac]

40. I thought your house had a garage?

move the car out, and let Gf and kids use it as a bunkhouse
:hide:

[Roland99]

41. HA!

Well, not until I can get a solar-powered ventilation fan or something in it. :-)

[Dr.Phool]

50. I'll throw in a free cat!

FedEx wouldn't let me send it to Demeter.

[Roland99]

53. After I had to put my cat down a couple of years ago, I thought if I got another, I'd name it....

Schrödinger


Still miss my Lucky Cat, though. She was way cool. :)

[ozymandius]

62. The best cats I've ever known are those that snuggle up to dogs.

The cat I had put down over the summer would snuggle up to anything with a pulse. Good girl, she was.

[DemReadingDU]

64. ah, it's always sad when our pets get sick

Maybe it's time to get another?

I'm not sure what it would be like without a cat or dog, or both. Pets are great company.

[Joe Chi Minh]

43. Dogs are Man's best friends. Cats are cats' best friends; Republicans to their claw tips.

Strange how we like Republicans in the (formal) animal kingdom, isn't? Part of their charm, even.

[tclambert]

54. Our cats never liked each other.

Hiss and snarl, slash and claw. Most of the time they tried to ignore each other. Not sure where that fits on the political spectrum.

[Joe Chi Minh]

58. I doubt if it would make for a cohesive class, political or otherwise!

[bain_sidhe]

57. Sometimes dogs are cats' best friends, too

This has nothing to do with the stock market, just a story I have to share because it made me feel good:

http://www.twobobbies.com/

It's the story about a cat and a dog found wandering together after Katrina (several months!) They were rescued, and separated, by Best Friends, but didn't like being apart, so Best Friends put them back together. That's when they discovered that Bobbie The Cat was blind, and Bobbie The Dog was his seeing eye dog. Best Friends has made a book out of it, and they receive part of the price if you buy it.

Edited for punctuation!

[DemReadingDU]

63. That is a great story!

[Joe Chi Minh]

68. It surely is!

[Po_d Mainiac]

39. I'd argue the point about PM's...but not cocoa

There are 2 PM markets

One is the Ponzi paper ETF (synthetic)which will blow up.

The other is the "holding hard" market which is far from being a bubble. If anything, the market manipulation is coming from the "bullion banksters" doing their damnedest to hold the market down.

Holders of "hard" are by and large not speculators or investors. The point is to hold an asset that can be easily monetized into any currency. (current and future)

As a simple illustration:
A 90% silver 1960 US quarter bought a gallon of gasoline when it was minted. 50 years later, it still does.
.............
And Doc is spot on about hoarding up on chocolate. WTSHTF and the "Chocolate Wars" erupt, there will be two types of testicles. Those that are still where they should be (nice and warm) and those worn as earrings by cocoa deprived females

[AnneD]

67. A bubble now...

student loans. The sharks smell blood in the water.

[Demeter]

42. Dodd ups his war against Elizabeth Warren

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/18/894225/-Dodd-ups-his-war-against-Elizabeth-Warren?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailykos%2Findex+%28Daily+Kos%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo

Elizabeth Warren has been lining up her pieces in the Senate and White House (and even industry) as progressives rally around her candidacy to head the soon-to-be-born Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Her biggest opponent, Chris Dodd, has spent the last several weeks whining about her inability to be confirmed. Suddenly, with that line of attack looking less and less salient, he's shifted gears.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd has for weeks called into doubt whether Elizabeth Warren can be confirmed to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. But for the first time this week, Dodd has called into question whether she's qualified for the job, reversing his earlier position.

"It isn't just a question of being a consumer advocate. I want to see that she can manage something, too," Dodd told the Hartford Courant.

That's a far cry from what he told TPM and other reporters just weeks ago, when his only stated concern, based on his conversations with colleagues, was that Democrats may have a hard time rounding up 60 votes to confirm her.

"She's qualified, no question about that," Dodd said. "The question is whether she's confirmable."

Dodd claims he'll support her if Obama nominates her, but it's clear he's leading the charge for Democrats who don't want to step out on a limb and publicly take her on. He'll be gone from the Senate in January, so he has nothing to lose by carrying water for corporatist, Wall Street-owned Dems. Or maybe his close proximity to Joe Lieberman is rubbing off.

Really, for a guy that could lay claim to a decent legacy in the Senate, he sure is going out as an asshole.

Fact is, if Obama wants to prove that the Financial Reform law is worth a damn, he needs to nominate Warren. And if she runs up against confirmation problems in the GOP-owned Senate (and they do own it, thanks to its broken rules), then he needs to recess appoint her.

THIS IS MULTIDIMENSIONAL CHESS--AND THE O MAN IS CLUELESS AND NOT EVEN IN THE GAME.

[DemReadingDU]

44. Elizabeth Warren Rap Video- Got A New Sheriff

8/13/10 Elizabeth Warren Rap Video- Got A New Sheriff

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W0vCgMRX0o


edit: I heard this video discussed on NPR this morning

8/18/10 Fans Tout Warren To Head New Consumer Agency
Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren is said to be one of the top candidates to lead the new Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection. The bureau was her idea and a key part of the recently-passed financial bill. A liberal group called the Main Street Brigade is rooting for her, and put together a music video.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129270696

[florida08]

48. I'm feeling it and giddyup..lol

[florida08]

49. well you know

us professional lefties want too much. :eyes:

[Joe Chi Minh]

69. Well, you know, it would kinda be easier if you were all amateurish lefties.

[Roland99]

52. Great resource for sustainable living/green living >>>>>

posted this in gd:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8969895

[Demeter]

65. Did You All Notice? The Miracle Was 2 Hours Early

Either the panic was palpable, or somebody wanted to start the weekend early.

[DemReadingDU]

66. Notice what? What happened?