STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 26

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 26, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 25, 2010

Dow 10,060.06 +19.61 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,141.54 +17.78 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,055.33 +3.46 (+0.33%)
Gold future... 1,242 +0.60 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.54 +0.05 (+1.85%)
30-Year Bond 3.57 +0.01 (+0.25%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 08/21
Briefing.com 475K
Consensus 485K
Prior 500K

08:30 Continuing Claims 08/14
Briefing.com 4500K
Consensus 4515K
Prior 4478K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

18. Jobless claims down 37,000 to 473,000. Market futures roaring up on this "good" news.

[Dr.Phool]

23. What went up, just came down!

[wordpix]

25. we really won't have a recovery until we have a manufacturing base again

There's only so much paper-shuffling jobs people can do. How about fixing the country's infrastructure including roads, bridges, high speed rail and transmission lines? How about solar and wind for every house and community?

[Tansy_Gold]

29. Infrastructure jobs aren't "manufacturing" jobs

That's not to say they aren't important or that they don't contribute to the over-all health of the economy.

But the true manufacturing jobs that create (ultimately) the consumer goods that people buy with their paychecks is what forms the foundation of the economy.

If you spend tax money on roads and bridges and schools but the paychecks are ultimately spent on furniture and shoes and pencils and shirts and iPods made in China, the money leaves the system. The only way that kind of economy can work is if China is buying a similar amount of consumer goods/services from us so the money can flow back. That ain't happenin'.

If you build houses here with drywall made in China, lumber imported from Canada, furnished with appliances made in Mexico, do you see what happens?

Infrastructure here is crumbling because the manufacturing base was shipped off shore, the jobs disappeared, and the tax revenue trickled down that would have funded the infrastructure maintenance.

NO ONE is talking about consumer goods manufacturing, with the exception maybe of those who are touting the GM recovery. Problem is, many of the parts that go into GM cars, many of the tools used to build them, are not made in US manufacturing plants.

And yes, I'm fully aware that it's a matter of labor costs, affordability, profits to the shareholders, and consumer demand for more and more and cheaper and cheaper goods.

Just remember that every time you (rhetorical you, not you personally) buy an inexpensive made in Sri Lanka shirt, that affordability comes at the price of someone's slave labor, the price of a living wage job in North Carolina (or somewhere similar), the price of crappy roads and unsafe bridges due to shrinking tax revenues. But hey, if you just have to have that brand new name brand shirt 'cause everyone else does and even though you have 32 more just like it in the closet, go right ahead. Just don't come cryin' to me when the bridge collapses.

For want of a nail and all that.


TG, NTY

[amandabeech]

41. Great post Tansy!

It deserves a thread of its own over in GD.

And while you're at it, send it to Little Timmy and the Misogynist. It'll probably be news to them.

[Warpy]

45. Well, it's not like we can buy a shirt made here or even make one ourselves

out of cloth that's made here because the infrastructure that wove the cloth and the specialized machines in ready to wear clothing mills has either been sent offshore with the jobs or sold for scrap.

In the meantime, the superior cloth we used to make in this country has also disappeared, replaced with foreign produced, sleazy goods in fabric shops and even online, so it isn't worth the effort to make it ourselves.

I would dearly love to be able to buy things produced domestically, classics that don't go out of style, well made out of natural fiber cloth woven here. I doubt I'm alone and I do think the market exists, sick of all the cheap poly/cotton knitwear in ugly crayon colors that pills during the second wearing and barely lasts 10 or so washings.

And that's just clothing. Don't get me started on tools that break in half even when they're used appropriately, substandard furniture, and consumer electronics that last a month or two before needing replacement.

It wasn't like that when things were made here. We did a much better job before the corporations decided they didn't need us any more.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. Planned crapolescence

See, if it falls apart or wears out quickly, the consumer has to rush right out and buy another one! Isn't that a terrific idea!?!? :sarcasm: and :puke: for those who are so challenged.

And advertising/corporate propaganda have made us feel we're happy with that kind of shit. My neighbor's 40-year-old son and daughter-in-law: "We don't want hand-made solid oak furniture Dad made because it'll last forever, and we'll just get tired of it in a year or so. We're better off with cheap Chinese shit from Walmart that we won't feel guilty about when it's garbage in six months. Yippee! We can go out and buy more!"

The propaganda has been so successful that we've become a nation of cheap-consumer-goods addicts, and I don't know how we kick the habit. Like other addicts, we often know full well we're killing ourselves/our economy with the 'drug' of choice, but it feels So. Damn. Good. And I don't know how we get the whole country into rehab.



TG, getting ready for the season's arts & craft shows

[DemReadingDU]

59. Our consumerism habit will be kicked

When the global financial Ponzi implodes, we will become like Bernie Madoff victims, penneyless. Banks will be frozen, ATMs won't work. Credit cards will not be allowed either. As a result, we won't be able to buy any of that cheap Chinese shit from Walmart or anywhere, no matter how cheap. Cause we aren't going to have any money.
:(

[tclambert]

48. OK, you got me to search my closet and I found only 3 shirts made in the US

None of the pants. Mexico is as close as I got. So who makes clothes in the US of A? Anybody got a list?

[Tansy_Gold]

53. I don't have a list, but it would probably be a very short one n/t

[tclambert]

55. I've found Carhartt, Red Wing shoes, and New Balance shoes

all American made. Texas Jeans, too, but I've never seen them on sale anywhere 'round here.

I can't believe this. Are Levi's not made in America? How can that be?

[Robbien]

57. Carhartt and Red Wing have moved most manufacturing to Mexico

It is almost impossible to find any of their new stuff with the Made in USA label.

Levi's Jeans are made in Mexico & Guatemala

I thought I heard New Balance was moving/moved production of its stuff to the East.

[Hawkowl]

38. Work less, live longer

"Recent evidence continues to mount that the job recovery in the U.S. is indeed slowing: on Thursday, we learned that initial weekly jobless claims jumped by 16,000 to cross back over the 500,000 barrier. The four-week average, used to smooth out volatility in the data, moved to 482,500, the highest since December. (HT: Markman Capital Insight)

But, as Monty Python reminds us, it’s important to always look on bright side of life: the BLS this week released its annual report on "Fatal Occupational Injuries in 2009" with the following highlights:"

http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/work-less-live-longer/?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises above $73 amid stronger stock markets

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices extended gains to rise above $73 a barrel Thursday in Asia as regional stock markets advanced and recent sharp losses in crude drew more buyers.

Crude has fallen about 11.5 percent from around $82 a barrel early this month as more evidence of a slowing U.S. economy suggested that demand for oil and gas would remain sluggish.

However, traders ignored weak U.S. reports released Wednesday on new home sales and durable goods orders to buy crude based on expectations of growing demand in the medium-term, said Victor Shum, an energy analyst at consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

The rebound in crude prices also came as natural gas prices fell. Some analysts said many traders had bet crude oil would fall below $70 per barrel, while natural gas prices would go no lower than about $4 per 1,000 cubic foot. When natural gas dropped below that level, traders began to buy crude to cover their bets and avoid losses.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Hawkowl]

36. Dead cat bounce

A momentary reprieve. Even Opec and the speculators won't be able to keep oil up for very much longer. Oh, I'm sure a good international scare (BOMB IRAN!) might keep the oil companies happy for a few more weeks, but oil can't stay up in the face of a continual global decline in output and rising unemployment.

I would expect oil to fall below $70 mid September and continue a gradual decline until we start hearing about a colder than normal winter in the northeast, which predominately uses heating oil.

[ozymandius]

3. FACT CHECK: Stimulus assessments overly optimistic

WASHINGTON – The Obama administration claimed this week that $100 billion invested in innovative technologies under the economic stimulus law is "transforming the American economy" by putting the nation on track for technological breakthroughs in health care, energy and transportation.

But an examination of details in the 50-page report unveiled Tuesday by Vice President Joe Biden reveals something a bit different: a collection of rosy projections that ignore many of the challenges, pitfalls and economic realities in all those areas.

A look at how the administration's claims compare to the facts...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100826/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fact_check_stimulus

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The areas surveyed are:

• renewable energy
• solar power cost cuts
• cheaper genetic mapping
• High-speed rail
• health information technology
• electric vehicles

[tclambert]

7. All of those areas sound like they could bear fruit in 10 or 20 years.

They would have small effect for 2011 or 2012. It's good to have politicians who plan for a future beyond the next election cycle. But we still need something for the short term, too.

[Roland99]

9. There's a name for that short term solution:

a miracle

[tclambert]

12. I'm still for building pyramids.

Or hiring people to search for the Holy Grail. JOBS PROGRAMS! They freakin' pay for themselves.

[MARALE]

46. Buld roads

Hire workers to help schools, who are in desperate need. There is a lot of government hiring that could be done for the short term to help get things back on track. Stop sending money to Israel and hire people at home with that money. it is not all that hard.

[tclambert]

54. What I really want to build are spaceports. Dollars spent on the space program have the highest

return of any government investment I've heard of. I don't have a link, but my memory is every dollar spent on NASA returns $8 in economic benefits.

Come to think of it, that's another list I would like--How many dollars of economic benefit do we get for each dollar of government spending on each program. Department of Defense, I think we end up losing money. Tax cuts for the rich loses money. Food stamps produced a benefit of about $1.73 per dollar spent, I think. Unemployment was around $1.63 or $1.59, I forget which. I'm sure the GAO or the CBO could come up with numbers. And I'm sure we would debate the validity of any such numbers for a long time. Still, it could act as a starting point for a lot of discussions/furious arguments.

[tclambert]

11. That post remarkably parallels my personal investment strategy.

My wife and I put a little bit in A123Systems (lithium battery maker) and iRobot (not the Asimov-type robots, they make the Roomba, and some military robots). The wife is thinking of putting a small bet on a pharmaceutical research company, Alnylam. Instead of targeting proteins produced by bacteria, viruses and tumors, they took a step back and have tested RNA interference treatments designed to attack the production mechanism of the proteins. They say they should have a product on the market in a couple of years.

Those are all lottery ticket-type investments. In 10 years one or more may pay off big, or come to nothing.

Part of our investments went into safer dividend-paying stocks, though, 'cause it's nice to get a little income in the short term. Ultimately, I would like to build up enough safe dividend income to replace the need for paychecks. At the rate we're going, it will only take another 100 years. You know, depending on how many times Republicans take over the government and wreck the economy.

[wordpix]

26. i'm with you but it's really hard to tell what companies will be the next MSFT or AAPL

of the solar, wind, biomass, health care or high speed rail space. :shrug: I'd be rich if I knew

[tclambert]

51. I've been reading science magazines and listening to kids who work on solar cars.

Still, predicting the future is largely guesswork. I hope if I make several guesses, one will hit it big. One that does makes up for a lot of misses.

[Dr.Phool]

14. All that stimulus to build solar cells and turbines in China.

Maybe China will send us some coolies, er H1-B to build us some high speed rail, like they used to.

[Po_d Mainiac]

17. Even a domestic produced bicycle would be a start..n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

42. I'd buy one!

See my post #29 above.




Tansy Gold, who would like a new bike, but will only ride when the weather gets a bit cooler. . . .

[CatholicEdHead]

58. Only the high end bikes are still made domestically

But you have to be at the $1500 to $2000+ for the mid to upper Trek lines to get those high end road bikes made in Wisconsin. The lower road bikes (and general use bikes) from Trek are made in China.

[Capn Sunshine]

60. Another RW AP hit piece

This sort of thing is and will be more pronounced as we approach the election.
They skew their story so that even though the results thus far are promising, there isn't enough empirical evidence to pronounce the programs "a success."

Reading the article gives one a better idea that all the stuff the Obama Administration has done appears to be working. And that optimism might actually be warranted, but not yet, which is an editorial viewpoint, disguised as a "news" story.


Most of the doomsters only take away headlines, no one reads the damn article any more.

[ozymandius]

4. Fed in emergency bid to put bailout ruling on hold

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve asked a U.S. appeals court to delay implementing a ruling that would force the central bank to disclose details of its emergency lending programs to banks during the financial crisis.

Wednesday's emergency request for a 90-day delay came after the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals on August 20 denied a motion by the Fed to rehear the case, which had been brought by Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, and News Corp's Fox News Network.

A stay would give the Fed and the Clearing House Association, a group of major U.S. and European banks, until November 18 to appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The Fed argued that allowing disclosure could stigmatize banks, causing a loss of confidence that could lead to deposit runs, bank failures and damage to the economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100825/ts_nm/us_fed_bloomberg

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The ruling, IMO, in favor of the Fed would null the Constitutional provision granting the Treasury control over the regulation of our national currency.

[Roland99]

10. Ron Paul must not be happy

[florida08]

20. right on cue

hmm..stigmatize banks..cause a loss of confidence? We're already there Bernanke.

"force the government to let the cat out of the bag, without any effective way of recapturing it"

Interesting choice of words. I'd say there's more than one cat in there

[wordpix]

27. where's the transparency?

[SarahB]

56. A 90 day delay would get the fed through the next election cycle.

Coincidence? Hmmm...

[ozymandius]

5. U.S. banks lobby Fed on debit card fee limits

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve has begun taking the first steps to crack down on debit-card transaction fees, with the battle between merchants and banks moving from the legislative to the regulatory arena.

The banks lobbied in vain against an amendment included in the financial reform act passed in July that limits some of their transaction fees.

Banks are now trying to salvage what they can during the rulemaking process by trying to convince the Fed that some processing fees, like fraud prevention costs, should be broadly defined.

The National Retail Federation estimates debit card fees, which are about 1 percent to 2 percent of each transaction, total $20 billion annually.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100825/ts_nm/us_fed_regulation

[Roland99]

19. damn...sucks for them

didn't banks used to make money off of loans to people based solely upon a reasonable leverage ratio based upon the amount of deposits they had?

When did it become the norm for banks needing to make as much profit as some upstart internet company or something? They were supposed to be the SAFE investment industry, not the riskiest! I'd feel safer investing in some company that plans on mining cheese from the moon.

[florida08]

21. LoL

you know that contract would go to KBR/Haliburton.

[Hugin]

24. Hmm... That headline can be taken many ways.

After reading the article... I realize that it's meaning all hinges around the Capital "F" in "Fed".

However, "U.S. Banks lobby fed on debit card fee limits." is also true as is adding another "e" in fed to become... "U.S. Banks lobby feed on debit card fee limits." Voila!

This concludes today's lesson on nuance.

[AnneD]

30. Puncuation: It is a matter of life or death......

Let's eat grandma!

OR

Lets eat grandma!

[Roland99]

32. esp. for victims of violent pandas.....

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=1843961

[ozymandius]

6. World stocks rise but weak data tempers gains

Recent figures from China to the U.S. have pointed to the global economy slowing in the second half of the year. Markets are now looking for clues to how deep the downturn will be.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average advanced 61.09 points, or 0.7 percent, to 8,906.48 after hitting a 16-month closing low the previous day amid the yen hitting a fresh 15-year high against the dollar.

China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.3 percent to 2,603.48, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.8 percent to 4,356.00 and India's Sensex was 0.3 percent higher at 18,232.01.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares gained 45.31 points, or 0.9 percent, to 5,154.71. Germany's DAX rose 35.88, or 0.6 percent, to 5,935.38 while France's CAC-40 advanced 18.03, or 0.5 percent, to 3,468.22. Wall Street was set to consolidate with Dow futures up 7, or 0.1 percent, at 10,054.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100826/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[Festivito]

8. Debt: 08/24/2010 13,371,301,700,295.28 (UP 8,023,414,463.98) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Went lakeside, unfortunately, a mall. Day starts and ends with a flat tire, but not mine.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,833,727,680,597.51 + 4,537,574,019,697.77
UP 493,029,883.18 + UP 7,530,384,580.80

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.37 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,945,593 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,140.8.
A family of three owes $129,422.41. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,338,117,534.14.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,092,556,776.18.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,836,771,977.67.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 225 reports in 328 days of FY2010 averaging 6.50B$ per report, 4.46B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 880 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/24/2010 13,371,301,700,295.28 BHO (UP 2,744,424,651,382.20 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,461,472,696,783.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,626,333,946,115.79 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********

62,265,547,064.39 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4516845&mesg_id=4516881

[Festivito]

63. Debt: 08/25/2010 13,361,354,442,247.95 (DOWN 9,947,258,047.33) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Folders gone. More reports. To try TEM again.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,834,183,612,860.18 + 4,527,170,829,387.77
UP 455,932,262.67 + DOWN 10,403,190,310.00

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.30 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,952,239 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,107.78.
A family of three owes $129,323.35. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,701,226,884.92.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,760,981,507.93.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,419,074,098.12.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 226 reports in 329 days of FY2010 averaging 6.42B$ per report, 4.41B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 879 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/25/2010 13,361,354,442,247.95 BHO (UP 2,734,477,393,334.87 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,451,525,438,736.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,610,354,970,026.48 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********

62,392,098,535.19 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4518122&mesg_id=4518153

[Dr.Phool]

13. Good 'toon. Must be The Czechago School of Economic Forecasting.

And what sweet surprises do they have in store for us today?

[DemReadingDU]

15. Liked that toon too!

Every day has an unexpected surprise
:P

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. More Gross shit from Pimpco

Let us assume for the purpose of argument that our corporate bond market is and always has been backed by federal government insurance. In its many years of operations companies would float bonds at relatively low interest rates because of the government’s guarantee. Industry would be financed for their various projects, and, perhaps because of the lower cost, maybe this would be the preferred financing option for seasoned companies rather than common stock.

If anyone were to suggest that this market should shed its guarantee and rely on the private securities market to finance corporations, I am sure they would be laughed down by most economists and politicians. They would use the standard arguments against free markets. Everyone knows that without the guarantee corporate bonds would not get financed, or, there is not sufficient evidence that the private market would finance bonds without the guarantee, or, if they did, the lending covenants would be too harsh or the interest rate would be too high for corporations to afford. And, of course, the government has a “strong social interest” in maintaining a stable source of capital for corporations.

We all know, of course, that such thinking is wrong, and that the securities markets can well provide bond financing for business without the government’s guarantee.

Yet I just read an article about a forthcoming paper coming from two Fed economists recommending that the federal government guarantee all asset backed securities.

<snip>

“Without a government guarantee, mortgage rates would be hundreds — hundreds — of basis points higher, resulting in a moribund housing market for years,” Gross said.

He said Pimco would not consider investing in a private, or privately insured, mortgage pool unless it was accompanied by 30% down payments — far above the current norm.


http://dailycapitalist.com/2010/08/25/new-fed-proposal-to-bankrupt-america-government-guarantees-entire-abs-market/#more-6149

If Pimpco pulls this off.......Pimpco is too big to exist

[florida08]

22. well

that certainly would drown government in a bathtub.. but that's what they mean by free market. Free to pass profits up and debt down.

[Po_d Mainiac]

28. well.....Now that is a deep subject

At least my well is anyway (328ft)....So on the theme of deep subjects, how bout some deep shit

WASHINGTON (AP) -- One in 10 American households with a mortgage was at risk of foreclosure this summer as the government's efforts to help have had little impact stemming the housing crisis.

About 9.9 percent of homeowners had missed at least one mortgage payment as of June 30, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.

That number, which is adjusted for seasonal factors, was down slightly from a record-high of more than 10 percent as of April 30.

In a worrisome sign, the number of homeowners starting to have problems with their mortgages rose after trending downward last year. The number of homes in the foreclosure process fell slightly, the first drop in four years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/One-in-10-with-a-mortgage-apf-1858261396.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
And who the hell knows what the 'seasonal' factors did to the actual figure:shrug:

[florida08]

37. my well is not that deep

of course they're using masking tape. Can't have a hostile takeover out in the open. No job means no mortgage payment. Our property taxes fell along with it's value but we're not underwater...yet. I don't see how mortage modification will fix unemployment.

Today’s White House Zestimate is $308,058,000. Wonder what the property/maintence are on that. Maybe we should charge rent.

[Roland99]

31. 11:55 - not so sunny after all ('cept for oil specuvestors)

Dow 10,031 -29 -0.29%
Nasdaq 2,133 -9 -0.40%
S&P 500 1,053 -2 -0.23%
Gold 1,241 -0 -0.02%
GlobalDow 1,778 +6 +0.36%
Oil 73.51 +0.99 +1.37%

[Robbien]

33. August KC Fed Manufacturing is Zero, Nada, None. That's down from 14 in July

Zero percent of firms are reporting production increases. Shipments, new orders and employment indexes go negative. Future production index falls to 10, from 23.

This probably wiped away all the happy from the market.

[Roland99]

34. and maybe this blurb from Treasury (just confirming what we here all already knew)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9019301

[Robbien]

35. The Feds told that to bloggers

So it was reported

They probably all along said that to MSM reporters who decided that it was news the public shouldn't have.

[florida08]

39. I retract my statement in line #37

You can have a hostile takeover out in the open

[Capn Sunshine]

61. I'm not sure how much gain anyone expected from the KC Fed region

There isn't a whole lot of "there" there. I'd be more inclined to blame Koch Industries relentless attacks on anything middle class, via any means possible. This is killing sentiment on a ground up basis throughout the Midwest. I just returned from there - in fact I met with a Bank entity right smak dab in the KC Feds influence zone, and it's remarkable to me how downbeat everyone is, especially the media, whether it be "Morning Zoo" guys or Eyewitness Noodles. The big entities are positioning themselves for a selloff. All you can do as a trader is batten down the hatches. Don't buy, don't sell, September and October are coming, always bearish tendencies then.

The braver among us may try to catch an inevitable reflexive move up as a great shorting opportunity, but such ideas are fraught with peril. This time of year a lot of flash trading attempts to wash any speculative positions out and you need nerves of steel.

[TalkingDog]

40. A beautiful and "Fearful Symmetry" marks the 1pm slot

the reflection is almost like zen poetry

[Roland99]

43. 2:35 - Ah-OOGAH! Ah-OOGAH!!

Dow 9,989 -71 -0.71%
Nasdaq 2,124 -17 -0.81%
S&P 500 1,049 -7 -0.64%
Gold 1,239 -2 -0.15%
GlobalDow 1,775 +3 +0.16%
Oil 73.22 +0.70 +0.97%




EDIT: Ok, there we go. Whew! Can't have that 4-digit closing number, eh?

[Juneboarder]

44. Below $10,000!?!?

PPT... where ARE uuuuuuuuuuu? Less than an hour and a half to go...

[skoalyman]

47. oh my I think the next shoe may be hittin the fan shortly

Stock Market News
DJIA 9,985.58 -74.48
NASDAQ 2,118.69 -22.85
S&P 500 1,047.32 -8.01

[Roland99]

49. At the close - relief pitcher doesn't get the save.

Dow 9,986 -74 -0.74%
Nasdaq 2,119 -23 -1.07%
S&P 500 1,047 -8 -0.77%
Gold 1,239 -2 -0.18%
GlobalDow 1,775 +3 +0.16%
Oil 73.31 +0.79 +1.09%

[Tansy_Gold]

52. BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:



yes, I have a very warped sense of humor.


then again, i do honestly believe a serious and drastic "correction" in the stock markets is the only way to avoid an even more painful "correction" in the nation at large.



TG

[Roland99]

62. Thank you. I'm here all week

but don't try the veal.