STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 1

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 1, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 31, 2010

Dow 10,014.72 +4.99 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,114.03 -5.94 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,049.33 +0.41 (+0.04%)
Gold future... 1,249 -1.60 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.50 +0.03 (+1.13%)
30-Year Bond 3.54 +0.02 (+0.54%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Videos:
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:15 ADP Employment Change Aug
Briefing.com 0K
Consensus 13K
Prior 42K

10:00 Construction Spending Jul
Briefing.com -0.5%
Consensus -0.7%
Prior 0.1%

10:00 ISM Index Aug
Briefing.com 53.0
Consensus 52.9
Prior 55.5

10:30 Crude Inventories 08/28
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 4.11M

14:00 Auto Sales Aug
Briefing.com NA
Consensus 3.9M
Prior 3.8M

14:00 Truck Sales Aug
Briefing.com NA
Consensus 5.1M
Prior 5.14M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

16. Survey says....

U.S. August ADP employment down 10,000

http://hairybeast.files.wordpress.com.nyud.net:8090/2006/12/survey-says-723936.jpg

[Dr.Phool]

18. Since they're always wrong on the sunny side.

The real numbers must be catastrophic!

I'd better run over to the bank and make my payment on my cardboard box.

[Roland99]

20. Stock up some cat food while you're at it.

[Dr.Phool]

21. Don't have to.

I've got a commission to provide that.

At least Reagan gave us cheese. Isn't that rat food?

[Roland99]

22. What a Mickey Mouse operation, eh?

:)

[TalkingDog]

38. Don't knock gubbmint cheese, now. Ronnie you can beat with a stick....

But gubbmint cheese is (was) actually pretty good. It was a nice medium hard cheddar with just a bit of tang..... which by the way was the color. Tang.

Other than the annatto to make it more "appetizing", I actually enjoyed it.

[Hawkowl]

39. Yum!

Couldn't have survived without my gubbmnit cheese!

[Demeter]

41. Free Cheese Today Is Crap

It tastes like it, too. It has no fat, so it doesn't have any flavor and it doesn't melt in grilled cheese sandwiches, either. It's cheese food, American style. They give it to the poor elderly Chinese here, and since dairy isn't in their diet, they give it to me. I just throw it out--nobody wants it! I've asked!

[TalkingDog]

45. You mean: Orange Plastic Slices?

I'd make art out of them.....

[Demeter]

57. It's not even sliced

It's a 2 lb brick. Good for Door stops (in Siberia. Otherwise, it would mold).

[Warpy]

60. I worked with a Pueblo gal who used to bring government cheese

queso dip when we'd have pot luck suppers at work. I don't know what else she put into it besides a basic white sauce, grated gubmint cheese and peppers, but it was damned good.

Tribal folks are about 90% lactose intolerant but they still get that cheese in the monthly allotment of flour, beans, sugar, and other staples.

Still, as queso dip, it had its finest hour.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil creeps above $72 after big fall on weak demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose slightly to above $72 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after a steep drop the previous day amid evidence that U.S. crude supplies remain high and demand weak.

Crude inventories jumped 4.7 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., had forecast an increase of 1.9 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline and distillates fell, the API said.

In other Nymex trading in October contracts, heating oil rose 1.03 cents to $2.002 a gallon and gasoline gained 0.6 cent to $1.863 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery fell 4 cents to $3.776 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Loge23]

25. Now this is comedy!

The daily Yahoo recaps of the oil scams is my most amusing read every day.
"increased demand"
"weaker than expected"
"high inventory levels"
"unexpected demand"
"higher than normal"

"dead cat on the line"

Is this thing written by the guy who sweeps out the trading floor?

[wordpix]

35. well we know by the BP disaster how these guys love to spin so

of course they want to spin the "increased demand" story. Gawd forbid they should invest in r&d so their drilling is safe and they have a workable plan and technology for cleanup if something does happen. Heaven forbid they should invest in solar, wind and algae. :puke:

[skoalyman]

47. Here's some comedy from Aol News

Despite Weak August Sales, GM Sees Brighter Days Ahead
General Motors Sales Fall 25% Year-Over-Year in August
Wall Street Greets September With a Rally
Construction Sector's Woes Were Worse Than Expected in July
Why Students Should Work During College
Could an October Surprise Lift Stocks
Brazilians and Chinese Rediscover America as Tourist Spending Surges
U.S. Factories Kept Humming in August
Paid Off for Layoffs: CEOs at Pink Slip Leaders Earned 42% More in 2009
Daily Blogwatch: Seven Reasons There's No Double Dip
Why the Hindenburg Omen Is Hooey

[ozymandius]

3. Retail data: Americans still cautious in August

The figures confirm a flurry of anecdotal evidence that retailers will be disappointed by this year's back-to-school season — a time they see as second only to the winter holidays.

The good news is for consumers: Those who hoped for prices to fall and held off spending may be in luck if stores deepen discounts further to get rid of fall merchandise.

It looks like many kids are going back to school with their old computers, for instance. Intel Corp. lowered its forecast for the third quarter last week, saying demand for consumer PCs has been weaker than expected. Hewlett-Packard Co. and Dell Inc. also raised red flags about what is normally a strong season for sales.

A fuller picture of how retailers fared in August is due Thursday, when chains like Macy's Inc. and Target Corp. report their revenue at stores open at least a year. The figures are considered a key indicator because they exclude the effects of expansion and stores closing.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100901/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_retail_sales

---

This is a picture of deflation. If the trend continues then stores will drop prices -even below cost on some items- just to unlock money from inventory. Thursday will yield UE numbers and the data from the big chain stores.

[ozymandius]

4. Do they wonder why people hate their guts?

CEO layoff leaders also led in pay in '09: study

BOSTON (Reuters) – As U.S. companies shed millions of workers during the recession, the CEOs who laid off the most people brought home pay that was significantly higher than that of their peers, a study released on Thursday found.

The CEOs of the 50 U.S. companies that laid off the most workers between November 2008 and April 2010 were paid $12 million on average in 2009, or 42 percent more than the average across the Standard & Poor's 500, according to a study by the Institute for Policy Studies, a Washington think tank.

The study found that pay of the CEOs of the 50 companies that announced the largest layoffs rose 7 percent in 2009, at a time when overall compensation for the CEOs of the S&P 500 companies fell 11 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100901/us_nm/us_usa_corporate_layoffs

[tclambert]

10. By Republican logic, we should give those same CEOs even more money, so they can create jobs.

$2 trillion in cash sitting on the sidelines NOT creating jobs. The CEOs with the highest pay NOT creating jobs. In fact, the data clearly shows people with a lot of money correlates strongly with CUTTING jobs.

Here's a proposal: An extra punitive tax for executives of companies that lay off workers. If they lay off workers, they personally get smacked in the wallet. What effect do ya think that would have?

[bread_and_roses]

24. Here's an interesting little nugget on luxury goods

from the world of thoroughbred racing:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2010/08/31/pins-and-needles-by-evan-hammonds.aspx

While the Thoroughbred industry grapples with its own peculiar problems, the market for other luxury items, particularly art, is on the upswing so far this year. The world’s two leading art auction houses have rebounded in the first half of 2010 after losing as much as half their business the previous year. Sothebys has auctioned $2.2 billion in art in the first half of 2010, more than double a year ago. Christie’s International, with sales of $2.57 billion to date, is up 43% from the previous year. Christie’s sold a Picasso in May for $106.5 million, the highest price ever paid at auction for a work of art.

“We’re not going to lull ourselves into a false sense of security,” Christie’s chief executive, Ed Dolman told the Wall Street Journal in early August, “but the art market does seem to be recovering more quickly than anyone here expected.”

The sale of other luxury goods—cars, jewelry, champagne, pricey accessories—is inching upward, with industry analysts predicting gains of 4% this year.

Break out the champagne on the yachts!

[TheWatcher]

48. Off With Their Heads.

It's WAY Past time for Bastille Day for these people.

[Tansy_Gold]

49. Allons, enfants de la patrie

Le jour de gloire est arrivé.


TG, hopin' she spelled it all correctly

[TheWatcher]

50. You Did.

:hug:

[Tansy_Gold]

62. I had to go back and correct a typo,

but I didn't look anything up. I'm glad I remembered accurately.


This one I could not do from memory, but Le Google c'est mon ami.



A la volonté du peuple

et à la santé du progrès

remplis ton cœur d'un vin rebelle

et à demain, ami fidèle

nous voulons faire la lumière

malgré le masque de la nuit

pour illuminer notre terre

et changer la vie



from Les Misérables, the original concept album

Changer, changer, changer. . . . . .

[ozymandius]

5. Obama says 'most urgent task' is to restore US economy

WASHINGTON (AFP) – US President Barack Obama Tuesday stressed his "most urgent task" is to restore the American economy and get the unemployed back to work.

In a prime-time speech focused mainly on Iraq, Obama also sought to reassure Americans about his commitment to tackle the country's economic woes, highlighting lingering concerns about stubbornly high unemployment and sluggish growth.

With US unemployment rates hovering near double digits, and Americans showing little sign of restarting pre-crisis spending, the health of the economy looks set to be a major issue during the November elections.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100901/pl_afp/uspoliticseconomyobama

---

It's very difficult to separate the politics from economics in times like this. To me, this is what makes such broad platitudes maddening.

By the way - did you hear how Republicans want more and worse suffering among the poor and unemployed to win elections?

[Demeter]

12. It Took Him TWO YEARS To Come To That Conclusion????

well, all his friends had jobs....

[Loge23]

26. Well, now that the re-decorating is done... (eom)

[wordpix]

27. well he DID have 2 wars, the Wall St. mess, BP & other environ'l disasters...

the education disaster, an obstructionist Senate, and other big piles left by BushCo in the Oval Office

[Demeter]

42. None of which has been Improved, Let Alone Completed

I have to think Obama was a C student, doing barely enough to scrape by, "turning the page" so he could claim he was finished, and then go out and do whatever it is boys did in his boyhood....

And I'll bet a nickel he NEVER cleaned under the bed, either.

[wordpix]

28. He needs to restore his economic team & get rid of Geithner & Summers

I don't see how these guys are doing him any good

[Tansy_Gold]

54. They sure as hell . . .

ain't doin' US any good!

:grr:




TG, NTY

[ozymandius]

6. World stocks rise on China, Australia economy news

SEOUL, South Korea – World stock markets mostly gained Wednesday after Chinese manufacturing growth picked up and Australia's economy expanded at its fastest pace in three years.

The rise in Chinese manufacturing growth was the first in four months, according to the state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. It said its purchasing managers index, or PMI, rose to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July. Numbers above 50 show manufacturing activity expanding.

In early European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.3 percent to 5,238.32 and France's CAC-40 gained 0.1 percent to 3,495.20. Germany's DAX declined 0.6 percent at 5,887.45.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 stock average added 102.96, or 1.2 percent, to 8,927.02 after hitting a 16-month closing low the previous day.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100901/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

7. SEC says it lacked authority to charge Moody's

WASHINGTON – The Securities and Exchange Commission has declined to seek fraud charges against Moody's Investors Services over its ratings of risky investments that led to the financial crisis.

But the SEC said it decided against seeking civil charges only because it determined it lacked authority to charge a foreign affiliate of Moody's.

Instead, in a report on its investigation, the SEC warned all credit rating agencies that they could face charges if they mislead investors with deceptive ratings.

The warning is the latest step by the SEC to address the conduct of major financial firms that contributed to the Wall Street meltdown. Goldman Sachs & Co. agreed in July to pay $550 million to settle civil fraud charges related to its sales of mortgage investments. And Citigroup Inc. agreed to pay $75 million to resolve charges it misled investors about billions of dollars in potential losses from subprime mortgages.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100831/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sec_credit_raters

[Dr.Phool]

9. They lacked the authority to charge a foreign affiliate of Moody's?

Since when?

And all of a sudden, the do have the authority to threaten them? With what?

[ozymandius]

56. They still believe in the power of sternly worded letters.

However, if one applied the Bush doctrine to an imminent threat, Moody's affiliate would have been invaded after a volley of cluster bombs.

[ozymandius]

8. JPMorgan Said to Close Prop Trading Desk to Meet Volcker Rule

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. told traders who bet on commodities for the firm’s account that their unit will be closed as the company, the second-biggest U.S. bank by assets, starts to shut down all proprietary trading, according to a person briefed on the matter.

The bank eventually will close all in-house trading to comply with new U.S. curbs on investment banks, said the person, who asked not to be identified because New York-based JPMorgan’s decision hasn’t been made public.

Closing the proprietary trading desk for commodities affects fewer than 20 traders, one in the U.S. and the rest in the U.K., the person said. The unit is based in London, and traders there were given notice on Aug. 27 that their jobs were at risk as required by U.K. law, according to the person. Proprietary traders in fixed-income and equities, who account for 50 to 75 employees, will need to find jobs when those desks are shut down, this person said.

The Volcker rule may cost JPMorgan as much as $1.4 billion in annual profit, analysts at Barclays Capital led by Jason Goldberg estimated in a June 28 research report.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apLLc.r4OCF4&pos=2

[rfranklin]

11. CEO Crybabies...

CEO Crybabies
Corporate bosses are whining, even though they're reporting record profits.

It's hard out there for a CEO. There's a Democrat in the White House, and Washington is being ruled by a coalition of socialists and anticapitalist thugs. There's uncertainty about taxes and policy. Business leaders are constantly being vilified for taking home huge paychecks without providing meaningful returns to shareholders, or creating jobs, or boosting wages. The newly passed financial-reform bill requires CEOs of public companies to measure and report the ratio of their pay to that of their workers. Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman is complaining that the Obama administration is like Hitler invading Poland.

With government and the media making life so difficult for CEOs, it must be nearly impossible to turn a profit. Right? Um, not really.

The headline number from the quarterly GDP report released by the Commerce Department last Friday was the sorry 1.6 percent growth rate of the economy in the second quarter. But the release also provided detailed data on corporate profits. And while the GDP number was disappointing, the latter was impressive. Corporate profits, which stood at $1.5 trillion in 2007, fell sharply to $1.26 trillion and essentially stagnated in 2009. But since the Obama presidency started, the trajectory in quarterly profits has reversed. Quarterly profits (reported at an annualized rate) rose from $1.18 trillion in the second quarter of 2009 to $1.42 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2009 to $1.64 trillion in the second quarter of 2010. In the second quarter of 2010, corporate profits were up 39.2 percent from the year-before quarter.
--more--
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/31/ceo-crybabies.html

[Roland99]

15. Corporate profits are now HIGHER than they were than before the start of the recession, eh?

Good thing companies are sharing those profits with its employees and shareholders.




oh wait....

[Demeter]

13. Burger King mulls sale: source

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100901/bs_nm/us_burgerking

Burger King Holdings Inc, the No. 2 U.S. hamburger chain, has been considering a possible sale and has held talks with potential buyers, a source familiar with the situation said on Wednesday.

The company, which has a market capitalization of about $2.3 billion, has been public since May 2006. Burger King had previously been owned by private equity, which still hold a stake in the company. TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) had owned it; after buying Burger King from British drinks company Diageo (DGE.L) in 2002 for about $1.5 billion.

Burger King in August forecast weak demand for its new fiscal year amid a struggling economy and said it was unsure how costs for key ingredients like beef would impact the company. The company did not issue an earnings forecast for fiscal 2011 but said on Tuesday that high U.S. unemployment and government austerity programs in several European countries would weigh on same-restaurant sales.

The company, which competes with McDonald's Corp (MCD.N), said it expected commodity costs in the United States to be flat in fiscal 2011, although prices of wheat and beef were uncertain.

EVERY TIME DAILY LIFE TAKES A SHOCK, GOLDMAN'S IS THERE, WITH DYNAMITE.

[Festivito]

14. Debt: 08/30/2010 13,369,841,967,694.39 (DOWN 5,380,743,290.69) (Mon)

(Down a little. Good day.)
Watered plants. I hope they don't die.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,849,476,780,656.75 + 4,520,365,187,037.64
DOWN 93,227,691.02 + DOWN 5,287,515,599.67

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.96 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,985,470 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,130.54.
A family of three owes $129,391.63. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,005,226,854.74.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,403,833,026.81.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,261,773,896.91.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 229 reports in 334 days of FY2010 averaging 6.38B$ per report, 4.37B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 874 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/30/2010 13,369,841,967,694.39 BHO (UP 2,742,964,918,781.31 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,460,012,964,182.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,595,523,149,480.99 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon

72,653,159,128.36 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4523393&mesg_id=4523446

[Festivito]

63. Debt: 08/31/2010 13,449,652,537,035.05 (UP 79,810,569,340.66) (Tue)

(Up big. Good day.)
The business closed yesterday, so I shopped elsewhere.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,927,061,238,060.48 + 4,522,591,298,974.57
UP 77,584,457,403.73 + UP 2,226,111,936.93

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.89 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,992,116 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,387.08.
A family of three owes $130,161.24. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 9,214,154,788.91.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,064,185,338.17.
The average for the last 32 days would be 6,622,673,754.53.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 230 reports in 335 days of FY2010 averaging 6.69B$ per report, 4.60B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 873 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 19.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/31/2010 13,449,652,537,035.05 BHO (UP 2,822,775,488,121.97 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,539,823,533,523.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,677,718,178,316.43 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon
08/31/2010 +077,584,457,403.73 ------------**********

148,516,555,216.66 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4524624&mesg_id=4524697

[DemReadingDU]

66. yep, that's a biggie!

[Festivito]

68. Yet, Obama is still on track to borrow 200B LESS than the Bush budget.

1.66 versus 1.88 in trillions.

The media had to have their looky-see-the-debt spree before the real numbers became too obvious.

[Roland99]

17. Are we in Pomplona? The bulls are set to run

S&P 500 1,059 +10.40 +0.99%
DOW 10,091 +85.00 +0.85%
NASDAQ 1,788 +21.75 +1.23%

[Demeter]

19. Somebody Has a Strong Fantasy Life

All this dancing on the knife edge is unnerving.

[bread_and_roses]

23. Time for someone to make some play money

At least, in my primitive understanding of "the market" it looks as if no one "makes" any "money" when the market isn't moving one way or another - doesn't much matter to them which way it moves, movement is money for someone - though probably not the "stupid money' (isn't that what they call ordinary investors? Something like that).

Besides, the NPR newscasters need to use their cheerful, "all's right with the world" voices - they've had to use their sombre or flat tones for two days now.

[wordpix]

29. for the sake of my retirement fund, I hope so but

that hope has been going on since the '90's bubble burst

[Roland99]

31. funny that you mention hope. From MarketWatch's main page:

Investor Alert
Stocks rally as economic hopes rise

[Roland99]

30. 10:07 - Holy Fuck

Dow 10,237 +222 +2.22%
Nasdaq 2,167 +53 +2.49%
S&P 500 1,075 +26 +2.44%
GlobalDow 1,819 +42 +2.34%
Oil 73.00 +1.08 +1.50%
Gold 1,249 -1 -0.10%

[Tansy_Gold]

32. It's their way of telling us

they can do whatever the fuck they want. They do not care about us. We are an obscene amusement to them, like flies on a windowsill that they have pulled the wings off. We are nothing, less than nothing, and they are everything. They can and will crush us when it suits them.


TG, NTY

[wordpix]

33. could be their way of keeping us hanging onto our stocks/bonds instead of

selling out and investing in a kitchen and bath renovation (which I've started to do)

[Warpy]

40. Actually, they don't consider us, at all.

We're as invisible to them as they are to us, only indirectly observable by each group's effect on the economy.

[Tansy_Gold]

51. I think they DO know we exist, but in a different way than we know they do

We can't do anything about them, and they know it. They know they have power over us. They know we are here to do their bidding, to give them the blood out of our veins, the children out of our bodies. They know, and they delight in it. That's why they do things like what they are doing today and yesterday and the day before that and the day after tomorrow. They do it because they can, and because their perversity takes delight in our misery.

As TheWatcher says, hell is too good for them, but we can at least hope they get that.



TG

[Demeter]

58. Sure, We Can Do Lots To Them

It's just that we have scruples, and aren't so bloody-minded as to think rape, pillage, torture, murder and such are appropriate tactics. Unlike them.

[Tansy_Gold]

61. No, we can't, not without severe risk, which is very different from

how they can attack us with impunity.

We cannot raise their taxes, we cannot cut their incomes. We cannot appropriate their property. We cannot send their children to die.

They can do and have done all of that to us, and afterward they sit back and laugh.

Do you think they cannot poison us, en masse, exactly as Saddam Hussein did? Think Love Canal. Think Anniston, Alabama. Think Libby, Montana. Think Treece, Kansas. Think W.R. Grace and Jan Schlichtmann, PG&E and Erin Brockovich. Think Jack DeCoster and Wright County Eggs.

Scruples are not the only thing stopping. . . . . .us. . . ..




TG

[Demeter]

64. Losing Everything Means Nothing Left to Lose....

or how does that go?

[DemReadingDU]

65. Then desperate people, do desperate things

and my family snickers that I'm full of baloney.

[Tansy_Gold]

67. The American people have not reached that point yet

And while the income/wealth gap may be mathematically equal to or greater than what existed in pre-1789 France, I don't think we have the masses of desperately poor who truly have nothing left to lose. . . . yet. I know I certainly am not that poor, at least not yet.

As long as there is a safety net of some kind -- TANF, SS, SSI, food stamps, friends and relatives with some income/shelter -- They can keep Us under control, and still do what they want with us. oh, maybe not you and I as individuals, Demeter, but the masses are far from rising up.

We like to compare the USA to a third world country, and in some aspects that's probably not too far from accurate. But are we at the point of Pakistan, where seasonal floods leave thousands dead and millions homeless? No. Even with the devastation of Katrina, it was bureaucratic bungling (some of which was probably intentional and most of which was just sheer arrogance) that caused the problems, not a lack of resources. We still throw away tons of edible food every day. We do not have thousands dying of easily preventable or curable diseases.

The more accurate comparison is to call us a second-world country. We aren't at the top any more, except in terms of some mathematical models of GDP or the size of our military budget, etc. In terms of social justice, we've slipped very far.

A decade ago, when I was finishing up my BA, I took an honors seminar class titled "The Just Society" at ASU-West Campus, taught by Dr. Janet Burke, then associate/assistant dean of the University Honors College. Among our texts for the course was Marx and Engels' Communist Manifesto. Though normally Burke encouraged class discussion on most of the readings, for this she started with a derisive introduction, saying in effect that we almost really didn't need to read this because it was so obviously and patently absurd. A few of us, mostly the "mature" students (age 40+), attempted to challenge her, but she interrupted us and squelched any meaningful discussion. Those who supported her were, of course, allowed to voice THEIR opinions freely.

Later in the semester, we read Zola's 19th C novel of French coal miners, "Germinal," which could be translated to the mines of West Virginia today. Burke was actually able to defend the inhumanity of the mine owners, who exactly like their 21st C counterpart Don Blankenship cared nothing that the miners and their families died and starved and suffered, so long as the coal came out. Had Dr. Burke been simply arguing as devil's advocate to prompt our discussion, that might have been one thing. But I for one came away from those two particular "lessons" with a very different view: namely, that "The Just Society" implied a capitalist, patriarchal society and that part of "justice" was that some would be, shall we say, more equal than others.

We still see this attitude, more than enough of it on DU and even a little bit occasionally on SMW/WEE. The internalization of a capitalist ideology by the vast majority of the American population serves as a very effective stoplight on the highway to revolution. But the truth is that we haven't reached a point of societal collapse, and until we do, there will be misery and troubles, but there will not be masses even hitting the roads. Not yet, at least.



TG, NTY

[DemReadingDU]

36. Something must be going to burst

The higher it goes, the lower it falls
:eyes:

[TalkingDog]

37. My first reaction was similar. Except I was invoking the Mother of God.

Wow....

[Demeter]

43. It's the Tuesday Miracle, Pulling Into the Station a Bit Early

[DemReadingDU]

34. Quiz: Crack Shack or Mansion

Discover what 1 million dollars will buy in Vancouver, Canada!

Original Crack Shack or Mansion game.
The game features real Vancouver real estate listings, as of April 10th, 2010.
16 houses - guess if crack shack or mansion
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/original.html

Part 2 of the Crack Shack or Mansion game.
The game features real Vancouver real estate listings, as of April 21st, 2010.
16 houses - guess if crack shack or mansion
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/index.html

[Roland99]

44. Tidbits

1:01p
BofA: U.S. 10-year yields fall to 1.75% next year

12:59p
BofA: Fed to resume buying assets early 2011

12:59p
Bank of America sees "growth recession" :wtf:

12:59p
Bank of America lowers forecast for U.S. growth

[Tansy_Gold]

52. WTF indeed. black is white, up is inside down etc. etc. etc. eom

[TheWatcher]

46. All that really needs to be said about days like today is that they should be ignored.

All this childish, artificially bullying, is a show of force by TPTB of how "powerful" they are.

Reality has not changed.

Always remember what happens shortly after "Ramp And Camp" days.

This is all nonsense.


The BS, manipulated number they released this morning that has Wall Street doing their fake orgasm was really flat or under if you remove Auto manufacturing statistics. (Who is going to BUY all those "newly manufactured" Autos without JOBS?)

And here is what was hidden in the Soviet Style Propaganda this morning.

Investors overlooked another report that said construction spending in July tumbled to the lowest level in a decade. Construction activity dropped 1 percent in July, the third straight monthly decline, the Commerce Department said. Government revisions showed much weaker activity than previously reported for May and June.

They also overlooked the Auto Sales Report, which was horrible

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-auto-sales-turn-frail-in-apf-158117926.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

And while Wall Street flagellates themselves into a frenzy over a fake recovery, they continue to try and distract us from the fact that unless there are JOBS (So that people can actually buy all the Shit they say is being "manufactured", like Hamburgers), their fake, imaginary recovery is exposed for what it is.

Bullshit. Unfettered Bullshit.

Ignore the hype, Ignore the Sheep, Ignore the Cultists, Ignore the Zombies, Ignore The Bullshit.

Stay Focused on what's real.

It's going to get Ugly.

Soon.

Start paying attention again after the Post Labor Day Frenzy Miracle they will pull, when today's Miracle deflates after Friday's Job Numbers.

It should be clear to all of you now after last night that we are a lawless, Rogue Nation, who has completely abandoned the Rule Of Law, and just about every principle our country was founded on. Criminals run the government, and they will never be punished no matter how heinous their crimes are.

America is Finished.

Now we have to survive the fallout and adapt to the consequences.

And with a population that simply feels it cannot do enough to facilitate and enable the Criminals that abuse, rape, pillage, and steal from it, we will not emerge from The Darkness anytime soon.

Maybe I won't live to see any accountability or justice for what has been done, but for the first time in my life, I truly hope there IS a higher power that shapes our universe.

Because Eternal Damnation is exactly what these people deserve.

As a matter of fact, it's too light of a sentence.

Stay Strong Marketeers.

[DemReadingDU]

59. Denninger's Wishcast

9/1/10 Wishcast
An F2 Tornado equivalent for six to eight hours plus a 20' wall of water ought to douche the "Political Class" and "Banksters" real good......

Wouldn't it incredible if all the crooks got blown away and flooded out by.... God? That which we can't seem to accomplish - taking out the trash - might be accomplished by the biggest and baddest "mother" of them all - Mother Nature. If we're lucky.


click link for weather map
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165788

[Roland99]

53. Recession slams workers' pay (Men's wages are falling faster than women's)

Recession slams workers' pay (Men's wages are falling faster than women's)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/men-lose-more-ground-than-women-in-us-pay-slide-2010-09-01?dist=countdown

Wage growth among middle- and low-income U.S. workers has been shaky, at best, for a decade, but in the last three years it collapsed, with wages growing at less than half the rate they had in the period right before the recession, and some workers' pay decreasing, according to a new analysis by the Economic Policy Institute.

Median weekly earnings for full-time workers 25 and older grew at a rate of 0.5% in the year ending in the second quarter, down from 1.3% in 2009, 3.4% in 2008 and 4.3% in 2007, according to the EPI report, which measured year-over-year changes in growth from second quarter to second quarter. The figures are not adjusted for inflation. EPI is a Washington, D.C.-based think tank that focuses on low- and middle-income workers.

But some workers actually lost ground, with men's paychecks, in particular, hit hard. Men's median wages fell 1.3% in the year ending in the second quarter, down from a growth rate of 5.3% in the comparable period ending in mid-2008, the first year of the recession. Women's wage growth dropped to 3.7% from 5.2% over the same period. The data looked at adults 25 and older.

The median weekly wage for a man 25 or older was $861 in the second quarter. For a woman in that age group, the median wage was $704, according to EPI.

[Tansy_Gold]

55. back up for the late crowd n/t