STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday September 3

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday September 3, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 2, 2010

Dow 10,320.10 +50.63 (+0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,200.01 +23.17 (+1.05%)
S&P 500 1,090.10 +9.81 (+0.90%)
Gold future... 1,254 +0.50 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond... 1,254 +0.50 (+0.04%)
30-Year Bond 3.72 +0.01 (+0.14%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Aug
Briefing.com -106K
Consensus -120K
Prior -131K

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls - Private Aug
Briefing.com 10K
Consensus 44K
Prior 71K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Aug
Briefing.com 9.6%
Consensus 9.6%
Prior 9.5%

08:30 Hourly Earnings Aug
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Average Workweek Aug
Briefing.com 34.2
Consensus 34.2
Prior 34.2

10:00 ISM Services Aug
Briefing.com 51.0
Consensus 53.0
Prior 54.3

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

30. 8:30 reports: NFP down 54,000

Aug. private payroll gain above 30,000 expected

Aug. factory workweek up 6 minutes to 40.2 hours

Aug. average workweek unchanged at 34.2 hours

Aug. hourly earnings up 0.2%, up 1.7 yr-on-yr

Aug. nonfarm payroll drop was seen at 105,000

Aug. private payrolls up 67,000

Aug. jobless rate 9.6% as expected

U.S. Aug. nonfarm payrolls down 54,000

U.S. stock futures rise ahead of jobs data

[Ghost Dog]

33. Bloomberg Blurb: "U.S. Companies Added 67,000 Jobs in August"

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. added more jobs than forecast in August, easing concern the economy was falling back into recession.

Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 67,000, after a revised 107,000 increase in July that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a gain of 40,000. Overall employment fell 54,000 for a second month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.6 percent as more people entered the labor force.

Stock-index futures rose as the report bolstered Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s view that the conditions are in place for a pickup in U.S. growth in 2011. Companies such as Caterpillar Inc. are boosting staff as the global economy grows, a sign some businesses see the recent slowdown as temporary and are looking toward an improving economy.

“The double-dip talk was probably misplaced,” said Maury Harris, chief economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York, who projected private payrolls would rise by 75,000. “From a historical perspective, things are still soft. The economy ought to be doing better.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.1 percent to 1,101.5 at 8:56 a.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to 2.76 percent from 2.63 percent late yesterday.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-03/u-s-companies-cut-54-000-jobs-private-payrolls-expand-more-than-forecast.html


Bloomberg goes on to explain that the estimates of 'economists' polled ranged from a drop of 12,000 to a 120,000 increase, and ennumerates various revisions before revealing, eventually, that manufacturing payrolls decreased by 27,000, more than the survey forecast of a 10,000 increase, after gaining an estimated 34,000 the previous month.

[Ghost Dog]

42. AFP: "WH & Fed struggle to help jobs market".

The fact that the economy may not plunge back into recession will offer little solace as the recovery continues at a painfully slow pace.

"The big risk for the US economy is not necessarily another round of job losses, but maintaining the 50,000 per month pace on private payrolls," said Aneta Markowska of Societe Generale. "This falls short of the pace of labor force growth, and could cause unemployment to drift higher."

Even moderately good news will throw up challenges for the White House and the Federal Reserve, as they struggle to help the jobs market to its feet.

The White House on Thursday ruled out an "extraordinary" new economic stimulus plan to fire up the slowing recovery, but said President Barack Obama was scouting new ideas to boost jobs and growth.

But with many lawmakers fretting as elections loom and public concern mounting over the forecast 1.4 trillion dollar budget deficit, Obama's leeway is limited, shifting the spotlight onto the Federal Reserve.

/... http://www.france24.com/en/20100903-us-policy-spotlight-unemployment-set-rise


Maybe they really do see now thay need to target significant spending as well as tax breaks where it will generate most useful real employment (eg. on small businesses, infrastructure, R&D...). But it is judged politically inexpedient to call such spending 'stimulus'.

[AnneD]

53. Love the economist double speak....

"The double-dip talk was probably misplaced,” said Maury Harris, chief economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York, who projected private payrolls would rise by 75,000. “From a historical perspective, things are still soft. The economy ought to be doing better."

I guess that is why they get paid the big bucks. :shrug: I miss Jimmy the Greek, he gave better odds.

[Ghost Dog]

57. Nice charts. Turning point sighted (or sleight-of-hand)?:

... It's important to note that private sector jobs appear very weak increasing only .06% since last month (far slower than the rate of increase of the civilian workforce) and remaining a whopping 6.67% below the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 though, on a year-over-year basis, private jobs showed the first increase in 29 consecutive months.

...

Be sure to bookmark the "Scary Unemployment Dashboard"... it's live.

Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed has improved notably over the last few months while still remaining epically distressed by historic standards.

In August, workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined slightly dropping to 6.249 million or 42% of all unemployed workers while the median number of weeks unemployed declined to 19.9 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 33.6 weeks.

Looking at the charts below (click for super interactive versions) you can see that today’s sorry situation far exceeds even the conditions seen during the double-dip recessionary period of the early 1980s, long considered by economists to be the worst period of unemployment since the Great Depression.

/More... http://paper-money.blogspot.com/

[Ghost Dog]

62. Big Miss In ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Big Miss In ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Employment Component Comes In Below 50, Lowest Since January

ISM Services comes in at 51.5 vs expectations of 53.2, and a previous print of 54.3. This is the second lowest Service read of the year. And keep in mind services are what drives America. AUDJPY plunges on the news. All components come in below expectations (New Orders, Employment, Business Activity), except prices, which is almost deflationary, but not quite. And most critically, the employment read came in at 48.2: the first posted contraction since January 2010. But the US economy lost only 54K jobs (and over 160k not adjusting for birth death), ergo all is well and double dip is off the table. Crazy pills time.

/... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/big-miss-ism-non-manufacturing-index-employment-component-comes-below-50-lowest-january

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls below $75 ahead of US jobs report

BANGKOK – Oil prices fell below $75 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors awaited a report on U.S. employment that will influence guesses about the strength of future energy demand from the No. 1 economy.

Oil prices have traded between $70 and $80 for most of the past year as the global economy recovered from last year's recession, but developed countries struggled to regain strong growth. U.S. crude and fuel inventories have remained high, suggesting the demand for fuel remains sluggish.

In other Nymex trading in October contracts, heating oil fell 0.63 cent to $2.056 a gallon and gasoline dropped 0.86 cent to $1.913 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery rose 2.9 cents to $3.78 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Dr.Phool]

4. I couldn't believe my eyes yesterday.

Gas was down to $2.41 per gallon for Labor Day week-end. I'll have to fill up this morning.

[ozymandius]

6. Dang! That's amazing.

Gas is still 2.59 at its cheapest price here. I put $10 in the tank in anticipation of a lower price by this weekend.

Good morning. :donut: :donut: :donut:

[OnlinePoker]

36. In Victoria, BC, we're paying the equivalent of $4.28 U.S. per U.S. gallon.

$1.12 per litre.

[wordpix]

66. yes and you get health care, college, day care and UIC out of those high taxes, too

:)

[OnlinePoker]

68. I pay EI (UIC) from my pay

And will never be able to collect it because I will be pensioned in 5 years from the military. Paid into it for 35 years with no chance of benefits. I have never received daycare, but from friends who have, they are paying an arm and a leg still for it. College and healthcare is subsidized, but wait lists for health services are still extreme (my brother was diagnosed with colon cancer in October and didn't have surgery until May and it took me 3 months just to get a cortizone injection under xray).

[wordpix]

72. Canada's high taxes at the pump & on sales of everything pay for these, too

Canadians get day care subsidies if they can't afford all of it.

Maybe the health care has deteriorated lately but when I was a permanent resident for awhile, I received excellent health care for prenatal, birthing and well baby care and did not have to wait in line at all. The hospital also treated me very well when I had the baby, and we never saw a bill. (However, we did pay into the system).

[kickysnana]

44. Gas went up a dime here yesterday to $2.77.

I passed a station that pumps gas yet at 3:15pm selling gas for $2.67 and decided to get it on the return trip at 6pm. Bad move.

[Dr.Phool]

79. Ooops, jumped 6 cents this morning.

I went to fill up, and it was $2.47.

[ozymandius]

3. Payrolls seen falling, private hiring tepid

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employment likely fell for a third straight month in August as more temporary census jobs ended and cautious businesses scaled back hiring, an outcome that could pressure the Federal Reserve to prop up growth.

Nonfarm payrolls fell 100,000 after declining 131,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey. Private payrolls, a better barometer of the labor market's underlying health, are seen rising only 41,000, well below the 71,000 jobs added in July.

Against the backdrop of weak data such as housing, larger-than-expected job losses last month could heighten fears the economy is sliding back into recession and push the Fed -- the U.S. central bank -- closer to launching a fresh round of bond buying.

The weakness in employment last month was probably spread across all sectors. Employment in the goods-producing sector was likely held back by lackluster manufacturing payrolls, which had received a boost from some automakers who did not shut their plants for the traditional summer break.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100903/bs_nm/us_usa_economy

[ozymandius]

5. US policy under spotlight as unemployment set to rise

WASHINGTON (AFP) – A fresh batch of US unemployment figures on Friday will provide Americans with a crucial litmus test for the sputtering economic recovery and President Barack Obama's policies.

The Labor Department is due to unveil its estimate of August unemployment levels, anxiously awaited by Wall Street, the White House and millions of unemployed Americans looking for signs their plight will improve.

They are likely to be disappointed.

Economists predict the unemployment rate has risen to 9.6 percent, one tenth of a percentage point above July levels. While that would still be a better outcome than a high of 10.1 percent in October, around 120,000 jobs are expected to have disappeared in August amid still-sluggish hiring.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100903/ts_alt_afp/useconomyunemployment

[Dr.Phool]

7. They have a policy?

Could have fooled me.

[TalkingDog]

11. "Could have fooled me" Hey! The policy is working!

In politick school the first thing they teach you is the fine art of pulling the wool over the publics eyes.



It's done like so:





updated for image grrrr......

[Dr.Phool]

13. Either dazzle them with brilliance.

Or baffle them with bullshit.

That's what my lawyer used to say, anyway. Unfortunately, he could do neither.

[florida08]

18. hey

isn't that the Geithner policy?

[tclambert]

19. So THAT'S where toupees come from.

[rfranklin]

26. It's the Hair Club for Sheeples....

and it looks so natural!

[AnneD]

52. I can't decide....

are they going for the Donald Trump comb over or the newer Justin Bieber look? I am so confused. Or maybe just hung over. :evilgrin:

[skoalyman]

83. Its the new american Idol contestant lol

[Festivito]

8. Debt: 09/01/2010 13,426,803,373,412.02 (DOWN 22,849,163,623.03) (Wed, down big.)

(Down big. Good day.)
Went back to the store and didn't shop a drop.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,924,442,908,309.90 + 4,502,360,465,102.12
DOWN 2,618,329,750.58 + DOWN 20,230,833,872.45

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.82 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,998,762 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,312.44.
A family of three owes $129,937.33. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 7,878,183,188.42.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,302,546,550.73.
The average for the last 33 days would be 5,729,587,773.39.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 231 reports in 336 days of FY2010 averaging 6.57B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 872 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/01/2010 13,426,803,373,412.02 BHO (UP 2,799,926,324,498.94 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,516,974,369,900.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,647,903,705,397.65 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon
08/31/2010 +077,584,457,403.73 ------------**********
09/01/2010 -002,618,329,750.58 --

145,803,195,545.62 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4525982&mesg_id=4525995

[Festivito]

76. Debt: 09/02/2010 13,442,057,367,029.28 (UP 15,253,993,617.26) (Thu)

(Up some. Good day.)
Finished my 3 hours, redid the office.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,933,215,951,978.85 + 4,508,841,415,050.43
UP 8,773,043,668.95 + UP 6,480,949,948.31

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.75 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,005,408 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,360.72.
A family of three owes $130,082.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 6,051,279,484.99.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,841,023,587.99.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,684,861,536.76.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 232 reports in 337 days of FY2010 averaging 6.60B$ per report, 4.55B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 871 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/02/2010 13,442,057,367,029.28 BHO (UP 2,815,180,318,116.20 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,532,228,363,517.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,659,535,171,168.81 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon
08/31/2010 +077,584,457,403.73 ------------**********
09/01/2010 -002,618,329,750.58 --
09/02/2010 +008,773,043,668.95 ------------*********

146,146,207,290.34 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4527430&mesg_id=4527447

[TalkingDog]

9. X Post from LBN: Global food shortage fears as Russia extends wheat ban

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4527444

Good morning everyone!

Hope all the coastal folk east of me are safe and dry.

[Dr.Phool]

10. House Dems to Obama- No cuts to Social Security.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/09/house-democrats-to-obama-no-cuts-to-social-security.php?ref=fpa

The headline is a little misleading. At first it sounded like all of the House Dems were united in opposition. It turns out that so far it's just the Progressive Caucus.

[ozymandius]

12. White House: No second stimulus being considered

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The White House stressed on Thursday that no second economic stimulus package is being considered as part of new measures under review by President Barack Obama's team.

Obama said on Monday he and his advisers are discussing further tax cuts for businesses to help create jobs, as well as an extension of tax cuts for the middle class, rebuilding U.S. infrastructure and increasing investments in clean energy and research and development.

Obama is under strong election-year pressure to increase U.S. job growth after an $814 billion stimulus plan he and his Democrats pushed through Congress in February 2009 saved or created millions of jobs but has not reduced the U.S. jobless rate of 9.5 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100902/ts_nm/us_obama_economy

---

Could it be that tax cuts do not stimulate domestic job growth? The journalist who wrote this story must have interviewed Emmanuel and Summers. Bush proposed the same and was met with stunned silence among his business faithful. If Obama's proposal is the same as the wormy plan Bush dreamed up - the same question remains. How in the hell will a $7k tax break pay a salary at a living wage?

Again - from the article:

he Washington Post reported that among the options under review by the Obama team are a temporary payroll tax holiday and a permanent extension of the research and development tax credit.

Payroll taxes fund Social Security. It is just plain stupid to touch anything that contributes to Social Security.

[florida08]

16. the only thing

tax cuts stimulate is an offshore bank account..was Obama castrated on inauguration day?

[Dr.Phool]

21. I'm not seeing much of anything coming out of Washington, but stupid.

There's still time for Earl to make a sharp left hand turn, and clean the place out.

[florida08]

24. we were saying the same thing this morning

[kickysnana]

41. +1

[AnneD]

55. Did you hear about ...

about the hurricane that hit the red neck mobile home park?



It did 3.2 million dollars worth on improvements. We can laugh here in Houston, but we really sympathize with folks on the coast.:grouphug:

[TalkingDog]

59. Friend of mine in WV had joke along those lines

How are a WV divorce and a Hurricane alike?

Either way, somebody's going to lose a trailer.....

[AnneD]

78. I've heard that too...

very funny.

You can tell your family is redneck if you family tree looks more like a wreath.:spray:

[skoalyman]

85. one can only pray

:evilgrin:

[Loge23]

43. Wow. They really don't have a clue!

We often suggest that the powers that be are clueless, but here's black and white proof that they are.
Dr. Phool noted above that it is indeed news that they do have a policy. Below, we have Ms. Romer's "who knew?" farewell wave as she departs steps ahead of Tansy's well-aimed pitchfork. Here, we have the WH discounting perhaps the only measure that could positively affect jobs - and could have earlier if they didn't water down the first stimulus.
Elsewhere, oil "investors" mull over the unemployment numbers before rolling their dice. The numbers will "influence (their) guesses" about how much we should pay for oil/gas. Nice.
...and in good ol' Washington, Obama frets over how to enact more tax cuts and still be the Democratic standard-bearer. Absolutely amazing. Just amazing.
Who put all the stupid gas in the air anyway?
This country has become a haven for nincompoops, and that my friends really "influences" my "guesses" on how we will ever get back on track.

[Hawkowl]

45. What?

Obama is planning on proposing a Bush strategy again? Shocked! Shocked! That there is gambling going on!

[florida08]

14. am really tired of being threatened by the private sector

BP is warning Congress that if lawmakers pass legislation that bars the company from getting new offshore drilling permits, it may not have the money to pay for all the damages caused by its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The company says a ban would also imperil the ambitious Gulf Coast restoration efforts that officials want the company to voluntarily support.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/03/business/03bp.html

[ozymandius]

15. Is BP talking about those damages it is preparing to deny in court?

If I were the Commissar then BP would shut the hell up. Liens, asset seizure (and liquidation of domestic assets) would probably cover the damages tab pretty nicely.

[florida08]

17. yeah

it was the employees on the rig's fault.. stunning isn't it

[Dr.Phool]

22. They could do it under RICO.

I'm all for it. Just inform all the employees tomorrow that they're now working for the Federal Government. Don't miss a stroke.

[Tansy_Gold]

34. That's exactly what they did with Lincoln Savings.

That's how the ol' Resolution Trust came to be. And Lincoln Savings went bye-bye.


IT IS POSSIBLE ( or, in the case of my overworked fingers, pissible).





TG, NTY

[tclambert]

20. If Republicans take over Congress in November, BP will get a bailout

plus forgiveness for all their safety violations.

[florida08]

25. oh heck

they'll be running the MMS again..or still

[zogofzorkon]

28. and if the republicans don't take over Congress BP will get a bailout

plus a strongly worded memo about there safety violations

[kickysnana]

39. +1

[DemReadingDU]

61. Welcome to SMW thread!

:hi:

[florida08]

23. spreading democracy..lol

KABUL, Afghanistan — One of the principal owners of the Afghan bank at the center of an accelerating financial crisis here said depositors had withdrawn $180 million in the past two days. He predicted a “revolution” in the country’s financial system unless the Afghan government and the United States moved quickly to help stabilize the bank.

Khalilullah Frozi, one of the two largest shareholders of Kabul Bank, said reports indicating that the institution had lost as much as $300 million were overstated. But he predicted that if Afghan depositors continued to withdraw their money at the current rate, Kabul Bank would almost certainly collapse, undermining confidence in the nascent financial system the Afghans have been trying to build with American help.

If this goes on, we won’t survive,” Mr. Frozi said in an interview. “If people lose trust in the banks, there will be a revolution in the financial system.”

Afghan leaders promised to guarantee deposits in an attempt to arrest the panic, which began earlier this week when the country’s top banking officials demanded the resignations of Mr. Frozi, the bank’s chief executive, and the bank’s chairman, Sherkhan Farnood.

Afghan and American officials say the two men presided over the bank in a reckless and freewheeling manner, doling out millions to allies of President Hamid Karzai and pouring money into risky investments that crashed.



http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/03/world/asia/03kabul.html

[DemReadingDU]

27. Economist Christina Romer serves up dismal news at her farewell luncheon

9/2/10 Economist Christina Romer serves up dismal news at her farewell luncheon
By Dana Milbank

It wasn't the food; it was the entertainment. Christina Romer, chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, was giving what was billed as her "valedictory" before she returns to teach at Berkeley, and she used the swan song to establish four points, each more unnerving than the last:

She had no idea how bad the economic collapse would be. She still doesn't understand exactly why it was so bad. The response to the collapse was inadequate. And she doesn't have much of an idea about how to fix things.

What she did have was a binder full of scary descriptions and warnings, offered with a perma-smile and singsong delivery: "Terrible recession. . . . Incredibly searing. . . . Dramatically below trend. . . . Suffering terribly. . . . Risk of making high unemployment permanent. . . . Economic nightmare."

more...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/01/AR2010090106148.html?hpid=news-col-blog

[TalkingDog]

29. A$$HAT MUTHER F*CKERS!!!!! I knew. I knew in 2007.

Most of the people on this board knew. And on this board we would discuss our discussions with friends and family on this very subject.

How The FUCK Could You NOT KNOW!?

Jackasses. Each and every one.

Going to do something less stroke-inducing for a bit.......


I'll check in later when that vein on the side of my forehead stops throbbing.....

[Tansy_Gold]

32. What I posted on the WaPo comments section

Dear Dr. Romer -- Your ignorance astounds me. Seriously, I'm astonished that you have failed utterly to see what's been going on in the real USA world for the past 10 years. It's all out there in plain old black and white. The investor class has made THEIR profit the only objective in this country, and toward that objective they have infiltrated and manipulated the government. That includes you, Dr. Romer. You're part of the problem, and you could never be part of the solution. JOBS, lady, JOBS. Not service jobs, not minimum wage make-work jobs, but REAL JOBS, the kind your corporate masters shipped to slave-wage economies like Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, Honduras. When you figure out a way to bring those jobs back -- think tariffs, sweetheart -- then maybe you'll have a clue how to fix things. Either that or come over to the SMW for a while. Don't know what SMW is? ASK.




TG, NTY

[wordpix]

67. Love it! Think I'll add a comment, too, but hard to top yours - and what is SMW?

Looked up SMW but still not clear to me what it is

[TalkingDog]

74. You can tell Dr. Romer it's the Stock Market Watch

and obviously it's either full of clairvoyants and psychics or some of the most brilliant and insightful economic minds of the 20th and 21st Centuries.... because a lot of us here knew everything they didn't

[Dr.Phool]

38. Talk about fucking insanity!!!!

And what to do about this? Here, Romer became uncharacteristically hesitant to make predictions. She suggested some "innovative, low-cost policies." But the examples she cited - a "national export initiative," new trade agreements and a "pragmatic approach to regulation" - aren't exactly blockbusters.

"The only sure-fire ways for policymakers to substantially increase aggregate demand in the short run are for the government to spend more and tax less," she said. But asked about the main Republican proposal, extending George W. Bush's tax cuts for those earning more than $250,000, Romer replied that doing so would be "fiscally irresponsible."
----------------------------------------------------------
More of the same old shit. More free trade agreements. More tax cuts. Less regulation! This woman has lost her frigging mind!

This whole administration have lost their frigging minds.

[Tansy_Gold]

47. And this absolute idiot is going back to TEACH more of our

future economists!

Cripe, as soon as I finish the essential (and past deadline already) paid work, I think it's time for Tansy to write an open letter to youO-knowO-whoO. . .. . ...




TG, NTY

[wordpix]

69. hopefully the students have a better handle on the economy than she does

[wordpix]

70. and what are we supposed to export? almost everything is made in China

[Demeter]

31. Honesty and Openness At Last!

Now that's what I call transparency. You can see right through it!

[Tansy_Gold]

35. DING DING DING DING! Golden Glob winner!!!

:yourock:

[MattSh]

48. Golden Glob!

Thanks Tansy, that made my day! Of course, it's been a weird day too.

I assume you meant something else.

[Roland99]

49. I think it's just fine as-is

Perhaps this could be a new award handed out each year by Colbert.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. No. No. No. I started it a long time ago. Colbert can't have it.

"Golden Glob" is, I hope obviously, a play on "Golden Globe" as well as on my nom de guerre, and it can be a golden glob of whatever your heart desires, good or icky.


But the Golden Glob is MY award, and you can't just hand it over to Colbert without so much as a fare thee well! :D



TG, NTY

[Roland99]

54. A thousand pardons, my dear T_G!

and a dozen roses :)

[Demeter]

80. Thank You! Thank You! I'll Be Here All Weekend

don't forget to tip the wait staff. The economy depends upon it.

[florida08]

40. were they naive or just ignorant

to think trickle down economics actually work. At least I enjoyed a few months of excitement over a new POTUS. (Enter teabagger candidates to finish us off) :yoiks:

[Hawkowl]

46. Willfully ignorant

I know her kind. When I was at grad school, many years ago, she epitomized the clueless economics professor who would get up in front of the class and simply scribble calculus equations non-stop for 50 minutes. Day after day, week after week. No real world theory or statistics to back up assumptions on human behavior, just bad masturbatory math.

We would ask these professors how all this related to reality and the pat response would be "Irrelevant! The mathematical model is internally consistent!" Yup. Why I left the study of economics (at least on an academic level).

[Tansy_Gold]

51. Or just plain fucking mean and greedy n/t

[TalkingDog]

63. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! RUN AWAY!!!!!

The real world is not based on a mathematical model. Its the other way around.....

Who cares if the model is internally consistent? So is a road map. 1 inch = 20 miles. I still can't drive on the damned thing. A road map won't tell me if the bridge is washed out. Or if the entire region I'm driving through next weekend is in the middle of an Apple Scrumpy Festival and everybody in the town, 14 to 104, is blind drunk and likely to run me off the road.



Okay...stroke still imminent.

I'll check in later.

[DemReadingDU]

64. It's all based on theory

Everything.
'Trickle down'
Offshoring
Education

What do people learn in school nowadays anyway???
6/8/10 Jay Leno Jaywalking - 4th of July
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkQ6XgXeNuY&feature=player_embedded appx 6.5 minutes

[florida08]

65. grandpa to the rescue

[AnneD]

73. That is why I love...

Elizabeth Warren so much. A great teacher can even make the most complicated subject seem understandable. I admit my eyes glaze over when some of these folks pontificate...but not with her.

[Hawkowl]

86. Yes!

She is truly brilliant! She doesn't attempt to baffle people with bullshit because she has an outstanding grasp of the economy and it really isn't that hard to make it understandable. It is only baffling when people are trying to hide the frauds they are perpetrating.

[OnlinePoker]

56. Seriously

Out of 300+ million Americans, these are the best that Obama could surround himself with to run the country?

[DemReadingDU]

58. I think Obama was given a few choices

Just speculating, but Obama was probably given a few choices for his economic team, and was advised who the 'best' would be (to retain the money for the wealthy).

[wordpix]

71. Why isn't Eliz. Warren in a top position? She's trustworthy & smart

I know, I know---the corPOS don't like her

[Dr.Phool]

81. You answered your own question.

She's trustworthy and smart. They can't afford having people like her around.

[Tansy_Gold]

84. So what if Romer is gone? They've still got

Summers and Rubin and GEITHNER! All's well. . . . . .



sheesh.

[Citizen Worker]

77. At least Romer acknowledged the need for "new trade agreements."

That recommendation is probably what lead to her resignation. Obama, Summers, Geithner, et al, wouldn't hear of it therefore her resignation.

[Ghost Dog]

37. Eurozone bucks trend and remains firm

The ECB shifted its growth outlook for 2010 for the Eurozone raising its forecast range to between 1.4% and 1.8%. The recent performance of the Eurozone economy has been stellar and surprised most. However, the headlines have been stolen by the gloomier outlook for the world’s largest economy meaning that despite the widening of growth rates between the two economic regions, the dollar has outflanked the euro on safety grounds. In addition investors also took a dim view of the euro in the expectation that an American slowdown would filter through to the Eurozone eventually. The euro’s recent resurgence to $1.2850 reminds us that this rather simplistic version of events is perhaps premature.

Once again Eurozone data has bucked the trend and remains firm. Not only did this week’s PMI manufacturing data refute the view that the Eurozone is following the U.S. lead downwards, but today’s PMI services report also reinforces the view that Eurozone activity remains independently robust. Data for retail sales throughout July showed a third monthly gain with sales rising 0.1% while a back-revision boosted the yearly pace of gain to 1.1%. The euro also rallied against the yen to stand at ¥108.42. If Friday’s payroll number gives U.S. economists cause to breathe a sigh of relief, the euro’s improving underlying data points could see it head back above $1.2900 ahead of the weekend.

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/223752-friday-fx-brief-is-the-euro-poised-for-a-boost-from-u-s-employment-report?source=yahoo

[Ghost Dog]

60. European stocks climb

European stocks climbed, extending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest weekly gain in almost two months, after U.S. companies added more jobs than forecast in August, easing concern the economic recovery is faltering.

Credit Suisse Group AG and BNP Paribas SA led banks higher and Rio Tinto Group paced a rally in raw-material producers after the U.S. payrolls data. Aggreko Plc surged 5.5 percent as it said it has not received any takeover bids. Neopost SA, the French mailroom equipment maker, climbed 2 percent after reporting increased revenue.

The benchmark Stoxx 600 gained 0.9 percent to 260.4 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London, the highest level since Aug. 9. The gauge has rallied 3.7 percent this week, the most since July 9, as accelerating growth in U.S. and Chinese manufacturing and today’s jobs figures reassured investors. The measure is still 4.3 percent below this year’s high in April.

“Today’s jobs number was clearly better than expected and is welcomed by the market given the worries,” said Andy Lynch, who manages about $1.9 billion at Schroder Investment Management in London. “It may be a short-term bounce for the market as the debt in the U.S. economy still hasn’t gone away and the recovery is still in question.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-03/european-stock-index-futures-advance-danske-bank-theolia-may-be-active.html

[florida08]

75. Roubini: More than 400 US Banks Will Fail

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Roubini-nouriel-400-us/2010/09/03/id/369147

[cal04]

82. Dow back in the black for 2010

http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/03/markets/markets_newyork/

Stocks closed near session highs Friday, with the Dow erasing its losses for the year, as investors welcomed a better-than-expected report on the U.S. job market.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 128 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 14 points, or 1.3%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) composite rose 33 points, or 1.5%.

The rally pushed the Dow back into the black for the year. At roughly 10,448 points, the index is up nearly 0.2% since it closed at 10,428 points on Dec. 31.

All three major gauges ended the week with gains. The Dow added 2.9% this week, while the S&P 500 rose 3.7%, and the Nasdaq advanced 3.7% over the last five days. It was the first weekly gain for all three gauges in three weeks.