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Turborama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 03:42 PM
Original message
India's PM says China's territorial ambition must be challenged
Edited on Tue Sep-07-10 04:41 PM by Turborama
Source: Telegraph (UK)

India must prepare to counter China's territorial ambitions in South Asia, Manmohan Singh, India's prime minister, has warned.

By Dean Nelson in New Delhi.

He was speaking against a background of growing tensions between the world's two fastest growing economies and a number of diplomatic incidents relating to their long-standing border dispute. The two countries fought a war in 1962, and China still claims parts of Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir and Tawang district in Arunachal Pradesh.

India has become increasingly concerned in recent months at China's growing influence in neighbouring Burma, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan.

Beijing has funded a number of strategic roads and deepwater ports in these countries, known as the "String of Pearls". The Asian rivals most recently clashed over Beijing's refusal to grant a visa to an Indian general from Kashmir, which it regards as disputed territory. New Delhi is also alarmed by Beijing's support for road and power projects in Gilgit-Baltistan in the Pakistan-controlled part of Kashmir which is claimed by India.

=snip=

"China would like to have a foothold in South Asia and we have to reflect on this reality. There is a new assertiveness among the Chinese. It is difficult to tell which way it will go. So it's important to be prepared," Mr Singh told the editors, according to The Times of India.

Read more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/7987115/Indias-PM-says-Chinas-territorial-ambition-must-be-challenged.html



Robert Kaplan and Fareed Zakaria did a really interesting piece on China's growing regional influence recently.


I've found http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/podcasts/fareedzakaria/site/2010/08/29/gps.podcast.08.29.cnn.html">the video of the interview
and http://archives.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1008/29/fzgps.01.html">the transcript.

Also, here's Kaplan's article that's well worth a read

The Geography of Chinese Power

By Robert D. Kaplan

The English geographer Sir Halford Mackinder ended his famous 1904 article, "The Geographical Pivot of History," with a disturbing reference to China. After explaining why Eurasia was the geostrategic fulcrum of world power, he posited that the Chinese, should they expand their power well beyond their borders, "might constitute the yellow peril to the world's freedom just because they would add an oceanic frontage to the resources of the great continent, an advantage as yet denied to the Russian tenant of the pivot region." Leaving aside the sentiment's racism, which was common for the era, as well as the hysterics sparked by the rise of a non-Western power at any time, Mackinder had a point: whereas Russia, that other Eurasian giant, basically was, and is still, a land power with an oceanic front blocked by ice, China, owing to a 9,000-mile temperate coastline with many good natural harbors, is both a land power and a sea power. (Mackinder actually feared that China might one day conquer Russia.) China's virtual reach extends from Central Asia, with all its mineral and hydrocarbon wealth, to the main shipping lanes of the Pacific Ocean. Later, in Democratic Ideals and Reality, Mackinder predicted that along with the United States and the United Kingdom, China would eventually guide the world by "building for a quarter of humanity a new civilization, neither quite Eastern nor quite Western."

China's blessed geography is so obvious a point that it tends to get overlooked in discussions of the country's economic dynamism and national assertiveness. Yet it is essential: it means that China will stand at the hub of geopolitics even if the country's path toward global power is not necessarily linear. (China has routinely had GDP growth rates of more than ten percent annually over the past 30 years, but they almost certainly cannot last another 30.) China combines an extreme, Western-style modernity with a "hydraulic civilization" (a term coined by the historian Karl Wittfogel to describe societies that exercise centralized control over irrigation) that is reminiscent of the ancient Orient: thanks to central control, the regime can, for example, enlist the labor of millions to build major infrastructure. This makes China relentlessly dynamic in ways that democracies, with all of their temporizing, cannot be. As China's nominally Communist rulers -- the scions of some 25 dynasties going back 4,000 years -- are absorbing Western technology and Western practices, they are integrating them into a disciplined and elaborate cultural system with a unique experience in, among other things, forming tributary relationships with other states. "The Chinese," a Singaporean official told me early this year, "charm you when they want to charm you, and squeeze you when they want to squeeze you, and they do it quite systematically."

China's internal dynamism creates external ambitions. Empires rarely come about by design; they grow organically. As states become stronger, they cultivate new needs and -- this may seem counterintuitive -- apprehensions that force them to expand in various forms. Even under the stewardship of some of the most forgettable presidents -- Rutherford Hayes, James Garfield, Chester Arthur, Benjamin Harrison -- the United States' economy grew steadily and quietly in the late nineteenth century. As the country traded more with the outside world, it developed complex economic and strategic interests in far-flung places. Sometimes, as in South America and the Pacific region, for example, these interests justified military action. The United States was also able to start focusing outward during that period because it had consolidated the interior of the continent; the last major battle of the Indian Wars was fought in 1890.

China today is consolidating its land borders and beginning to turn outward. China's foreign policy ambitions are as aggressive as those of the United States a century ago, but for completely different reasons. China does not take a missionary approach to world affairs, seeking to spread an ideology or a system of government. Moral progress in international affairs is an American goal, not a Chinese one; China's actions abroad are propelled by its need to secure energy, metals, and strategic minerals in order to support the rising living standards of its immense population, which amounts to about one-fifth of the world's total. To accomplish this task, China has built advantageous power relationships both in contiguous territories and in far-flung locales rich in the resources it requires to fuel its growth. Because what drives China abroad has to do with a core national interest -- economic survival -- China can be defined as an über-realist power. It seeks to develop a sturdy presence throughout the parts of Africa that are well endowed with oil and minerals and wants to secure port access throughout the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, which connect the hydrocarbon-rich Arab-Persian world to the Chinese seaboard. Having no choice in the matter, Beijing cares little about the type of regime with which it is engaged; it requires stability, not virtue as the West conceives of it. And because some of these regimes -- such as those in Iran, Myanmar (also known as Burma), and Sudan -- are benighted and authoritarian, China's worldwide scouring for resources brings it into conflict with the missionary-oriented United States, as well as with countries such as India and Russia, against whose own spheres of influence China is bumping up.

Full piece:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66205/robert-d-kaplan/the-geography-of-chinese-power?gp=66351:1a10a7744c9a409b

If that link doesn't work, try the link here: http://edition.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/fareed.zakaria.gps/
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elleng Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 03:47 PM
Response to Original message
1. Swell
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comtec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
2. With us militarily out of the picture this is going to get ugly F A S T nt
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humblebum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Are we out of the picture? nt
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 05:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
13. Yeah, that's what the propagandists for the Pentagon would have you believe.
The two brilliant analysts in question:

Zakaria - almost as important a pimp of the WMD lie and the aggressive war on Iraq as Judy Miller or Jeffrey Goldberg. Now conveniently forgotten, this is how he made his bones, because except for Miller they all were rewarded for their obedience to power, while many of those who spoke truth back then were punished.

Kaplan - running around the globe for ages, warning of this week's coming anarchy from the dirty exotics, hence the need for the West to build ever higher walls against them.

They're both in the perpetual game of find the next threat.

It is very, very ugly today.

China is the final myth of the cold war, the thing that requires the US to waste our wealth on a militarized economy, a global empire of bases and total-dominance postures. If the geostrategists' peristent 19th century insanity ever dies down, China will be seen as a country just able to feed its population, with a pretty good manufacturing base and no chance of being a military bully except to Taiwan. Just another financial heavyweight.

Guess what, everyone's going to have the bomb. What follows the US as hegemon is no one as hegemon, and maybe humanity finally grows up. The age of national wars and imperialisms is coming to an end, and we can welcome it or end it in a global disaster transition by our decisions now: whether to pump up for a final round or not.
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comtec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #13
20. Thing it I don't expect China to use the bomb (lord knows the have enough people)
It's really India im worried about.

Thing is, aside from diplomacy (thankfully something we are still good at with Hillary) there is dick we can do, and I can only see this problem getting exponentially worse.

BOTH countries need resources and have impoverished populations (India being magnitudes worse off than china's)

and BOTH are the reason why OUR economy has gone to hell.

To be honest, it'd be nice to make some money off of their war for once (to be completely banal about it) as well as pulling all of our manufacturing AND IT out of BOTH countries, after all, bad idea to do business in or near a war zone!

Still, i hope it all ends peacefully
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Vehl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 02:51 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. India has a "No first use" policy for its nukes
Edited on Wed Sep-08-10 02:55 PM by Vehl

It's really India i'm worried about.


It's no first use policy ensures that it would never initiate a nuclear war. Furthermore, any nuclear war between those two nations would result in mutual assured destruction and the deaths of millions...both countries are mature enough to realize this. its highly unlikely there would be a shooting war ..let alone a nuclear one between these two nations.


India has shown more restraint regarding terror attacks on its Soil than America has :)




ps:


China

China adopted NFU policy in 1964, pledging “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time or under any circumstances". Nonetheless, some scholars and observers have questioned the credibility of China's NFU policy. For instance, China had reportedly considered nuclear strikes against the Soviet Union in the event of a conventional Soviet attack. Analysts continue to question the Chinese NFU pledge, especially in the event of a conflict involving Taiwan.However, China has repeatedly re-affirmed its no-first-use policy in recent years, doing so in 2005, 2008, and finally 2009.


India

India adopted a "no first use policy" after its nuclear tests in 1998. India's nuclear policy currently states that even though there will be no first-use of nuclear weapons by India, "nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use
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comtec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. lets hope they stick with that policy then n/t
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Vehl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. I'm sure they will.
Edited on Wed Sep-08-10 03:08 PM by Vehl
After all, they are an elected democracy...where any policy change requires debates and voting..unlike in a one party state.

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sofa king Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #2
22. Yeah, 'cause we're all about those land wars in Asia.
And losing every damned one of 'em that we get into.
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cosmicone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 04:30 PM
Response to Original message
4. Pakistan: China’s other North Korea

by K. Subrahmanyam in Indian Express - Link below

It is becoming clear to India and the rest of the world that China is embarking on a new strategy with respect to Pakistan. The stapled visa for Indians from Kashmir, including the army’s Northern Command head; major projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir or PoK; the latest reports on large scale military presence in PoK (denied, as expected, by Pakistan); reported plans for a railway line and oil and gas pipelines connecting Xinjiang and the Pakistani port of Gwadar; and an agreement to supply Pakistan with two nuclear reactors, breaching the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. All these taken together indicate that Pakistan is likely to play the major role in China’s West Asia strategy that North Korea does in its East Asia strategy.

China’s policy towards Iran, especially with respect to nuclear proliferation, and its reported sale of solid-fuel missiles to Saudi Arabia, are further indicators of China’s global strategy to challenge what it perceives as declining US power. So, too, the gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China that bypasses Russian territory. US strategist Robert Kaplan has talked of the expansion of the Chinese navy, and of China stepping up its activities in the western Pacific. But more attention needs to be paid to Chinese strategy in West Asia and their need for hydrocarbon resources from there

China cannot become Asia’s predominant power till US power in West Asia is countervailed. While China justifies its stapled visa policy for residents of Kashmir in India, it does not issue stapled visas to residents of PoK, indicating clearly that its stakes in Pakistan are high enough to ignore long-pursued policy on J&K, and the fact that the UN recognises the Indian legal position on Kashmir .This can be explained only by the assumption that the launching pad for Chinese global strategy vis-à-vis the US in West Asia and the Indian Ocean appears to be Pakistan.

It is now obvious, after the disastrous floods, that the Pakistani army is likely to plead that they are in no position to launch any operations against terrorist groups for two reasons. The army itself is involved in relief and rehabilitation operations; and since the various jihadi groups are working on relief and rehabilitation, in most cases more effectively than government agencies, popular opinion will not permit any action against them. The US administration and army have also clarified that they have no intention of withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2011, though a nominal drawdown may begin. Therefore, the Pakistani army would consider a need for jihadis as “insurance” after the delayed US departure even more vital. At the same time, US drone attacks are likely to be stepped up. In such circumstances, will the present arrangement, with America continuing to finance Pakistan militarily and economically even as the Pakistan-supported groups continue to inflict casualties on US and NATO forces, be sustainable? Not unless the Pakistani army fundamentally changes its policy.

Writing in the US journal National Interest, veteran Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid pointed out that “it is insufficient for the army to merely acknowledge that its past pursuit of foreign-policy goals through extremist proxies has proven so destructive; it is also necessary for the army to agree to a civilian-led peace process with India. Civilians must have a greater say in what constitutes national security. Until that happens, the army’s focus on the threat from New Delhi prevents it from truly acknowledging the problems it faces from extremism at home... Today there is much greater awareness among the Pakistani people that extremism poses a severe threat to the country and their livelihoods. There is also a much greater acceptance that ultimately civilian rule is better than military or mullah dictatorship. What is still lacking in the war against extremism, however, is a consistent and powerful message from both the government and the army that they will combat all terrorists — not just those who threaten their security.”

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/pakistan-chinas-other-north-korea/676475/0
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closeupready Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #4
18. LOL - glad you found a way to get your daily Pak-attack in.
Cheers. :rofl:
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OhioChick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. LOL...
Thought I was the only one who noticed.

:rofl:
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closeupready Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Yeah, it's sort of like the tides at this point -
You can set your watch to it, it's so predictable. :D
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Commie Pinko Dirtbag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-10-10 02:07 PM
Response to Reply #18
29. I'm starting to suspect some handsome, well-endowed Pakistani plumber...
...visited his house when he wasn't there, but his GF/wife was.

And then cheesy saxophone music started playing from nowhere.
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Vehl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 09:55 PM
Response to Original message
5. India's donation of its permanent security council seat to China was Nehru's biggest blunder

"Ironically, around 1955, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was offered the disputed Chinese Permanent Security Council seat by the US to keep out the People’s Republic of China, and he also was sounded out by the USSR Prime Minister, Nikolai Bulganin, to allow China to take this seat while giving India a sixth permanent seat in the Security Council. Nehru rejected this offer in deference to China. History may have been different if this offer had been subjected to serious negotiations."


Nehru naively believed that the newly independent nations of India and China could be best buddies...being victims of colonial powers and all that..till 1962 the official Indian government position vis-a-vis China was "Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai" (Indians and Chinese are brothers). With the Chinese invasion of 1962, their dreams of Asian cooperation in tatters, India woke up to the fact that China is more than willing to use military force to further its ends.


Its no secret that China intends to muscle into south asia/Indian ocean, and that India is actively opposed to this. India had stopped thinking of Pakistan as its major opponent in the late90s/early 2000 and for the past ten years has been gearing itself up to forestall any Chinese adventure into Indian soil...The only surprise about this news article is that the Indian PM himself voiced this openly. Maybe India feels confident enough about its defense modernization that it can openly state something that is not much of a secret in the first place. India does not covet any more land than it has right now...the same could not be said of China.However, apart from the usual huffs and puffs...neither side can take back the land held by the other.



related news
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8996438
http://www.economist.com/node/16846256



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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
6. I see World War III on the horizon.
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Francesca9 Donating Member (379 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. a possibility, but not for another decade or so
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Much sooner.
I'd say about 2-3 years. Israel is not going to wait 10 years to attack Iran.
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Vehl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Nah, for all this talk, both countries are more concerned about economic prosperity than war
at least for the next 2 or 3 decades.

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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 10:22 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. War will just increase their profits further.
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Vehl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. I doubt India and China will stand to make any profit from war....
Edited on Tue Sep-07-10 10:36 PM by Vehl
Especially when they are locked in a stalemate at the 18000-20000 feet high Himalayan region.. No one is going to go anywhere soon...even when war breaks out.

However, i do agree that this Chinese threat did stimulate Indian defense research& development quite a lot during the past few decades.


a map showing the claims and counterclaims made by each country...








Someone likes Horatius....at an Indian picket post set ~20000 feet overlooking the India-China border :o



PS: the third line is slightly off

:hide:
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skoalyman Donating Member (751 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 01:51 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. uh oh

:hide:
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Vehl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #12
15. oops


:tinfoilhat::hide::popcorn:
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Turborama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 11:34 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. LOL, you two are cracking me up!
:rofl:
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Vehl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 02:02 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. :)
:tv:

the truth is out there
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skoalyman Donating Member (751 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #17
26. lmao I think I couldnt add anything else
:toast: one of my favorite shows by the way
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Vehl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-09-10 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. same here
X files was one of my all time fav tv series

:toast:
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 05:51 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. It doesn't work that way for them. That's a specialty of the American MIC.
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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-09-10 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #6
28. China's well-documented gender imbalance could push them towards war as well
Due to their one-child policy, and the advent of easy access to prenatal sonograms, tens of millions of girls have been aborted in favor of boys due to cultural preferences for sons. This has created a population of tens of millions of young men with no prospect of ever getting married, and has fueled the "import" of wives from other countries, often supplied through widespread kidnappings. I have read analysts remark that there are worries in China that so many unmarriable young men could disrupt the social order that they have worked so hard to maintain, and that war would one option to balance out the genders again.
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