STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 8

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 8, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 7, 2010

Dow 10,340.69 -107.24 (-1.04%)
Nasdaq 2,208.89 -24.86 (-1.13%)
S&P 500 1,091.84 -12.67 (-1.16%)
Gold future... 1,261 +1.20 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.60 0.00 (0.00%)
30-Year Bond 3.67 +0.01 (+0.22%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

14:00 Fed's Beige Book Sep

15:00 Consumer Credit Jul
Briefing.com -$5.5B
Consensus -$5.25B
Prior -$1.3B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Ghost Dog]

51. Federal Reserve sees 'widespread' signs US economy is slowing

WASHINGTON: The US economy is showing "widespread" signs of deceleration, the US Federal Reserve warned in its latest Beige Book report published on Wednesday.

The central bank reported "continued growth in national economic activity" between mid-July and the end of August, "but with widespread signs of a deceleration."

/. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/1080011/1/.html

Fed's Beige Book sees U.S. economy slowing

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls below $74 on EU bank debt worries

SINGAPORE – Oil prices skidded below $74 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as traders followed regional stocks down on reports European banks may be saddled with more debt than previously estimated.

Most major Asian stock markets fell Wednesday and the Dow Jones industrial average stumbled 1 percent the day before after reports that EU stress tests of 91 banks in July understated some lenders' holdings of potentially risky debt. Germany's top 10 banks will have to raise as much as $135 billion to meet new capital requirements, reports said.

In other Nymex trading in October contracts, heating oil fell 0.33 cent to $2.071 a gallon and gasoline dropped 0.57 cents to $1.927 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery gained 2.6 cents to $3.878 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Obama pitches spending and tax incentives in Ohio

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama will push billions of dollars in new business tax incentives and spending on big construction projects on Wednesday, as he tries to convince a balky Congress to pass measures intended to spur the economy and create jobs.

Obama is to travel to Cleveland, Ohio, to announce plans including $200 billion in tax write-offs for businesses, a $50 billion infrastructure spending boost and increasing and permanently extending a tax credit for business research and development that would cost $100 billion over 10 years.

He will also stress that he does not intend to bend on his opposition to extending tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans enacted under his Republican predecessor, George W. Bush, aides said.

Economists said the new plans could provide a modest burst of activity in a slow-growth economy, but the risk is that they would only pull forward planned investments, which would do little to alter a sluggish growth trajectory and spur hiring to alleviate the 9.6 percent unemployment rate.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100908/bs_nm/us_obama_economy

[ozymandius]

4. World stocks down on Europe debt fear, yen surge

BEIJING – World stock markets slid Wednesday as the yen hit a fresh 15-year high against the dollar and new concerns bubbled about Europe's banks after a report they have more risky government debt than thought.

Early in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.6 percent to 5,376.11 while Germany's DAX was off 0.6 percent at 6,083.4. France's CAC-40 declined 0.5 percent to 3,624.88. Wall Street was set to fall with Dow Jones futures down 17 points, or 0.2 percent, at 10,322.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index dived 201.40, or 2.2 percent, to 9,024.60, with exporters pressured by the yen's continued strength. A strong yen hurts Japanese companies like Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. as it cuts their overseas profits and threatens to derail the country's fragile economic recovery.

China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.1 percent to 2,695.29 amid fears of new property curbs and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 1.5 percent to 21,088.86.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100908/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[Ghost Dog]

28. Goldman Sees $80 Trillion Emerging-Nation Stock Market by 2030

The market value of emerging-market stocks may surge more than fivefold to $80 trillion in two decades, overtaking developed nations, as China becomes the world’s largest stock market, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

Faster economic expansion and growing capital markets may lift emerging nations’ share of world equity capitalization to 55 percent by 2030 from 31 percent today, Goldman strategists led by Timothy Moe wrote in a research report. Institutional investors in developed nations will probably buy a net $4 trillion of emerging-market equities, lifting holdings to 18 percent of their total portfolios from 6 percent now, Moe wrote.

“The primary drivers are rapid economic growth and the maturing of equity markets that are at earlier stages of development,” Moe wrote in the report today. “Developed-market institutional asset management pools will need to increase their holdings of emerging-market equities.”

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has more than doubled since the beginning of 2000 even as the MSCI World Index of advanced- nation shares dropped about 21 percent. Emerging economies will expand 6.4 percent as a group next year, compared with 2.4 percent in developed nations, according to forecasts by International Monetary Fund. Prospects for faster growth spurred investors to add money to emerging-market equity funds for a 14th straight week even as they pulled $6.87 billion from global stock funds, research firm EPFR Global said today.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-08/emerging-nation-stocks-to-top-developed-market-by-2030-goldman-sachs-says.html

[Roland99]

30. and I'm sure they're betting on it failing some time in 2032

[Po_d Mainiac]

33. But that is in U$D based funds

Once inflation is factored in, (Assuming Bumhanky's printing presses keep up) that will work out to about 96 cents in today's market
:rofl:

[Demeter]

46. counting the chickens before the eggs are even laid

somebody is cracked!

Calling Mr. Dumpty, page for Mr. Dumpty!

[Ghost Dog]

29. Finance ministers give green light to EU oversight of national budgets

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - European finance ministers on Tuesday (7 September) gave the green light to a system of mutual supervision and oversight of each others' budgets.

...

The ministers endorsed a new system of a ‘European Semester', pushing EU nations closer towards fiscal harmonisation than ever before.

The semester, to kick in as soon as January next year, will begin with the European Commission producing a survey of the overall state of the economy, identifying difficulties facing both eurozone nations and the EU as a whole. This in turn will be presented to the European Parliament.

EU member states will then submit by April broad budgetary outlines for the commission to assess. Following this, based on the commission's opinion, may then choose to issue country-specific ‘guidance' by June and July.

/... http://euobserver.com/9/30749

[Demeter]

47. That's the funniest thing I ever Read!

[ozymandius]

5. Stock futures point to weaker Wall St

LONDON (Reuters) Stock index futures pointed to a slightly lower opening for U.S. shares on Wednesday, extending a decline from the previous session, as worries about the financial health of the euro zone's banks resurfaced. * At 0841 GMT futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down between 0.1 and 0.2 percent.

The Federal Reserve releases its periodic Beige Book, with anecdotal reports on the economy from the regional Feds. The economic evidence gathered from its 12 regional banks will provide insight into what is and isn't working well, drilling down to details as specific as Broadway show ticket sales, rural crop conditions and vacation resort bookings.

ICSC/Goldman Sachs release chain store sales for the week ended September 4 compared with the prior week. In the previous week sales rose 0.1 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100908/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks

[ozymandius]

6. Wall Street Firms to Cut 80,000 Jobs in 18 Months, Whitney Says

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Securities firms around the world will cut as many as 80,000 jobs in the next 18 months as revenue growth begins to slow, said Meredith Whitney, the former Oppenheimer & Co. analyst who now runs her own firm.

The reductions, about 10 percent of current levels, will come after 2010 compensation payments, Whitney, 40, said in a report dated Aug. 31 and obtained by Bloomberg News today. The industry’s payouts will be “down dramatically,” said Whitney, who started New York-based Meredith Whitney Group after correctly predicting Citigroup Inc.’s dividend cut in 2007.

“The key product drivers of Wall Street’s revenues and profits over the past decade have been in a structural decline over the past three years,” Whitney said in the report. “2010 marks the first year in many in which Wall Street-centric firms will go through structural changes.”

Barclays Plc, Credit Suisse Group AG and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc may lead a slowdown in hiring in Europe as the fixed-income trading boom fizzles out, recruiters said last month. Barclays Capital’s income from trading bonds and commodities fell 40 percent in the first half amid the sovereign debt crisis. Fixed-income, currencies and commodities trading was the biggest revenue contributor at investment banks from Deutsche Bank AG to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=abteMLSfG.AE

[ozymandius]

7. Something for Econ teachers and anyone who wants to know about Deflation -

Visual Guide to Deflation
It's a huge graphic, around 680k, that shows typical deflationary scenarios.

[TalkingDog]

43. Yes, but aren't they pretty.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

[ozymandius]

8. Mortgage Rates and Home Prices

From Calculated Risk:

David Leonhardt writes at the NY Times Economix: Mortgage Rates and Home Prices

Interest rates are historically low right now. They will surely rise at some point. All else equal, higher rates should push home prices down.
...
(see graph)
...
It’s not easy to see much of a relationship.
...
My best guess for why the two don’t correlate more closely is the role that psychology plays in housing markets. Prices just don’t move as quickly as economic theory suggests they should.

Nope.

I've tried to explain this several times in several different ways. Price is what you pay for something. Interest rates are related to how the item is financed. Some people pay cash for a house. Would they pay more because interest rates are low? Nope.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/mortgage-rates-and-home-prices.html

[ozymandius]

9. My favorite report is available - Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

Little late - but no matter. You can get the pdf file here.

Here are some excerpts:

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National
Activity Index returned to its historical average of zero in July, up from –0.70 in
June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index
improved from June, but only the production and income category made a positive
contribution to the index in July.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged lower to –0.17 in July from
–0.12 in June. July’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was
somewhat below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity
over the coming year.

Production-related indicators made a contribution of +0.43 to the index in July, up from –0.16 in
June. Total industrial production increased 1.0 percent in July after edging lower 0.1 percent in
June. In addition, manufacturing production rose 1.1 percent in July after decreasing 0.4 percent
in the previous month, and manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 72.2 percent in
July from 71.4 percent in June.

---

Employment-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the
index in July, up from –0.14 in June. Total nonfarm payroll employment
decreased by 131,000 in July; however, private nonfarm
payrolls increased by 71,000. In addition, manufacturing payrolls
rose for the seventh straight month, increasing by 36,000 in July
after edging up 13,000 in June.

The sales, orders, and inventories category also made a neutral
contribution to the index in July, down from +0.06 in June. The
Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing New Orders
Index declined to 53.5 in July from 58.5 in the previous month.
The consumption and housing category contributed –0.43 to the
index in July, up slightly from –0.46 in June. Housing starts increased
to 546,000 annualized units in July from 537,000 in June,
while building permits decreased to 565,000 annualized units in
July from 583,000 in the previous month.

[ozymandius]

10. Have a nice day, everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Time to get ready for work. :hi:

[girl gone mad]

11. The US President isn’t trying hard enough

The President has missed so many opportunities. The solution really is as simple as creating a jobs program now and using the monetary system properly to save the middle class and not just corrupt top financiers. How I wish Obama would dump the neo-lib sociopaths he's surrounded himself with and get real economic religion, fast.

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=11452

On September 3, 2010, the US President (clearly with an eye to the upcoming mid-term elections) took a stroll out into the Rose Garden at the Whitehouse and the assemblage heard some Remarks by the President on Monthly Unemployment Numbers.

It was the first of two important statements the President made about the dire situation that the US labour market is in with no end in sight to the demise.

While I get the impression Americans see Labor Day as a passage of time (the last day of summer) it has deep roots in recognising the rights of working people. For non-Americans, it emerged as a national holiday out of a major strike in the late C19th when workers were murdered by their own government (military and marshalls). So the US Government doesn’t just murder foreigners!

But it is certainly a day where politics and workers rights are often merged and so with the unemployment disaster facing the nation, the President could hardly not say something.

There is an instant remedy available to the US Government. They could announce immediately that they intend to employ anyone in a public service job at minimum pay who desires to work. This is the Job Guarantee.

It could be invoked immediately and the payrolls started even if it might take some time to organise the actual work. The impact on aggregate demand would be immediate as the workers who gain jobs under the plan would be likely to spend $1 in each dollar they receive in pay. It would also be preferred that the minimum wage was raised to represent something that is capable of providing a decent minimum living standard.

[Demeter]

15. Obama Is the Biggest Bubble of All

Obama is the new clothes without an Emperor. This Empty Suit was puffed up with populist hot air during a heated campaign, and then immediately deflated after the Inaugural parade, in plagiaristic tribute to Macy's Thanksgiving pageant (which has been ruined for decades by excessive commentary from empty talking heads and too little visible 'parade').

I do not feel sorry for the man Obama. He knows better. I do feel sorry for Michele--I think she knew from the beginning that it was going to be a bust. The Nobel Committee is looking more foolish every day.


The polls and the analysts are saying it's all over but the shouting. I don't know what to believe about that. I do think as far as the party faithful is concerned, it was all over 3 months in, as far as Obama goes.

If there's a god, Harry Reid will be forcibly retired. But I have my doubts that GOOD democrats will suffer losses. We will have to work with reality, regardless. Just because a Monumental Failure occurs, doesn't mean we give up.

(To the Watcher--sorry to step on your beat. But you don't really need a Weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing, do you?)

[tclambert]

17. I'm afraid the opportune moment has passed. He can't create a massive jobs program now

because he wasted all that time trying to compromise with the other side. But they refused to play the bi-partisanship game. He had one shot at a big stimulus bill and low-balled it, hoping that if government created a few jobs it would ignite further private sector job creation. The private sector waited, though, to see how well the economy reacted. Meanwhile, as always happens, the honeymoon period wore off, the opposition found a few positions they could stand on, and fears of upcoming elections paralyzed many Democrats in Congress, all of which act against dramatic action. He didn't have the courage to act swiftly and dramatically last year, when it was easier. To expect greater courage now, greater decisiveness now, seems out of character.

Here on SMW we tried to tell him jobs take priority over everything else. Paul Krugman tried to tell him. But it doesn't matter if he listens now. If Republicans make any gains in the mid-term elections, it will make the gridlock in Washington worse.

[Demeter]

21. But perhaps it will break the DLC and Corporate Stranglehold on the Party

which would be a very good thing.

[Tansy_Gold]

37. the opportune moment passed, yes, but so did the money

He gave far too much to the wrong people -- Wall Street, etc. -- and then there wasn't enough left to do what should have been done in the first place. As soon as the fat cats got their handout, the pukes started screaming DEFICITS! and effectively cut off the spending. They got theirs first, of course.

But what seems to have completely missed everyone's radar -- except in our tiny enclave here on SMW apparently -- is the real substantive jobs issue: manufacturing. The center and center-right pundits can declare all they want that "those jobs ain't comin' back," but until they realize that without those jobs THERE IS NO ECONOMY, nothing is going to change.

I would have preferred a more peaceful revolution, and a shorter one. I think the end will come in much the same way the Soviet Union collapsed, as individual states declare their sovreignty and set up their own national infrastructures. Ten years? 20? I don't know, but given the factionalities at work here, I don't see any other resolution.

Not the one I would have worked for, but it may be all we're left with.


TG, NTY

[jtuck004]

42. If the leadership REALLY believed that investing in the American people was a good investment

they would find the money. They have listened to the right-wing swan song for too long, and now all their thinking is framed by the limitations of those sour notes. As far as money, the Fed tells us it is just a matter of creating zeroes in the accounts that banks have with them, which would increase borrowing (deficit), but that is precisely what investment is. Fast trains, new technologies, the energy of the future, education to bring people and the country into the 21st century. Whatever it takes.

Our real deficit is not money. What we lack is real conviction and imagination as a trait of our leadership, and our people. We have a President that complains of people who talk about him like a dog, in stark contrast to a past chief who stood up straight and said "I welcome their hate". (That man knew what it would cost him to be firmly on the side of the people, and he did not shirk from that responsibility, or make excuses).

We have a surfeit of people following that lead, and that does not bode well for our future.

[Tansy_Gold]

52. Unless there is a means to repay the "deficits". . . . .

That's at the heart of the issue. The government can keep on printing money -- or adding it to the banks' account balances -- but that doesn't generate wealth. It can make an every spiraling larger flow of cash, but the end of that spiral is going to be an exit ramp into China's national treasury. The money has to flow back in a circular loop, not an open-ended spiral one.

An economy creates a government, not the other way around. And without production of consumer goods within the economy, the outflow will continue. And with it the ever increasing consolidation of wealth/power in the hands of a very very few.

Yes, the government can open the spigots and fund high speed rail and solar panels on every roof in Arizona, but if the steel for the rails comes from China and the solar panels are manufactured in Mexico, the spigots will eventually -- sooner? later? doesn't matter 'cause it will and must happen eventually -- run dry. When they do, you'll be left with a shell of a nation, a dry husk of maybe 10,000 supremely obscenely wealthy families and and 350 million impoverished slaves.

Everything this administration has "succeeded" in doing so far has been to continue that open-ended spiral rather than curving it into the closed, self-sustaining loop that's needed for a healthy national economy. BEST OF ALL, that healthy national economy then becomes a model for all the other failed states we have been or will be dealing with.

But pure deficit spending on non-manufacturing jobs isn't the answer. It can't be, and I don't care how much they spend on it, billions, trillions, quadrillions. If it all ends up going out of The Economy, then it's a failure.



TG, NTY

[jtuck004]

55. You are correct. This will also take education to help people

understand what they are doing to themselves, and to help them take control of the assets. Manufacturing HAS to be part of it, but it might be operating smarter machines, or learning to do our own polysilicones, etc. China is investing billions in this, we must do at least as much.

But without income the deficit will continue to grow, and that income appears from paychecks. We don't have enough of those, and need more. The old models are likely gone, so it will take very much a new way of doing things. You are quite correct, if we just keep paying out, keep doing what we have always done, it will bring us back to the same bad ending. But the alternative is to watch things continue to deteriorate, and that is not just unacceptable, it's an abandonment of our responsibity to each other. And it is going to take investment.

A lack of imagination is still the biggest deficit.

[DemReadingDU]

57. It's a failure

We, this country, need to be able to produce clothes, shoes, tools, the things that people need every day. Until these basic industries are brought back, or started over, I don't see much success going forward.

And another thing. How are people going to eat? If the country turns into a few supremely obscenely wealthy families, with the rest of us millions impoverished slaves, we are not going to be able to afford transportation to drive to fast food restaurants, or even groceries stores. (assuming there are grocery stores, fast food, and the gas to purchase for the cars)

So unless we have manufacturing in this country for the masses of people to earn money for basic necessities, it's a failure.

[amandabeech]

59. Another excellent post, Tansy. nt

[boomerbust]

12. They are crying already on CNBC

Run for your life, Obama to raise taxes on the wealthy!

[Roland99]

14. And here we thought they wanted to be fiscally responsible

HA!!


let 'em cry.

[Dr.Phool]

31. Apocalypse Now.

Nothing like the sound of rich people whining in the morning.

[skoalyman]

38. there all bunch meat puppets on cnbc

[Hawkowl]

53. God I HATE those people

What I wouldn't give to see each and everyone of those CNBC screaming fools bankrupt and penniless.

[hamerfan]

13. Great cartoon today, Ozy!

Thanks for all you do. Have a great morning!
:donut:

[Demeter]

16. I had a job like that

The social worker wanted to give me psychoactive drugs so I could stand to stay in it. I quit instead. No, actually I got fired when the whole thing collapsed and the money ran out, the first but not the last thrown overboard.

There is no job (or marriage or family) worth having that requires you to mess with your brains and stifle your values and good sense.

I was born a non-conformist, I guess, to the dismay of my family.

[DemReadingDU]

22. A renegade

Life would be so boring if we were all conformists

[Demeter]

23. But a lot quieter

[tclambert]

18. Is there a way to invest in Koran publishing? Apparently, there's a big demand for them in Florida

as a consumable item rather than a durable item.

I'm also announcing an International Smack a Stupid Preacher in the Head Day. Smacking them with your hand, or a Koran, or a copy of the Constitution are all acceptable.

[Demeter]

20. The Constitution isn't heavy enough

it's just a god-damned piece of paper after all.

[Dr.Phool]

25. Maybe just a good, old fashioned, ghetto stomping.

[Po_d Mainiac]

35. Nah...burn a few Qurans

But shove them down Jone's throat first....I'm sure Allah would understand

[Dr.Phool]

36. Or burn a few Morans.

[Roland99]

26. I thought about alerting the media for a possible stunt on my part

I was going to burn Bibles. All kinds of them. Right after reading some horribly violent passages that these pseudo-Christians like to skip over.

[Tansy_Gold]

56. Read the sex parts first.

Or maybe make up some really juicy stuff -- I can help; I used to write romance novels, you know -- and tell 'em God spoke directly to you and that's what he said should really be there.

Mess with their heads and make 'em fucking explode.



TG, in a really snarky mood today and ready to roll

[Demeter]

19. Where Is Cheating Taught?

http://blogs.forbes.com/walterpavlo/2010/09/07/19/?partner=yahoofpapp

A question from a student at NYU during one of my presentations was “Did you ever cheat in college?” The question was obviously trying to get to exactly where did I learn my unethical behavior that led me to prison....Based on some of the studies I’ve seen it would appear that some of the behavior is learned at Masters of Business Administration (MBA) schools, but not as part of the curriculum. Instead it comes, I believe, from the competition between the students themselves. “I have to be better than the next person to get the job”. This mentality has obviously spilled over into their professional careers.

We have all taken short cuts in life but really, what does it gain you? One big reason not to cheat in school, besides the obvious that IT IS WRONG, is that you might be setting yourself up for a job you aren’t qualified to do....

By the way, where did I learn my own cheating? At work! So maybe the MBA schools aren’t all that bad.

[Festivito]

24. Debt: 09/03/2010 13,435,343,171,187.87 (DOWN 6,714,195,841.41) (Fri)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Flat tire, low tire. Pipe break. Little sleep. Weather is nice.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,933,281,399,898.44 + 4,502,061,771,289.43
UP 65,447,919.59 + DOWN 6,779,643,761.00

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.68 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,012,054 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,338.13.
A family of three owes $130,014.39. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,571,056,418.20.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,456,845,134.56.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,313,075,936.67.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 233 reports in 338 days of FY2010 averaging 6.55B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 870 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/03/2010 13,435,343,171,187.87 BHO (UP 2,808,466,122,274.79 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,525,514,167,676.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,647,374,766,869.16 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon
08/31/2010 +077,584,457,403.73 ------------**********
09/01/2010 -002,618,329,750.58 --
09/02/2010 +008,773,043,668.95 ------------*********
09/03/2010 +000,065,447,919.59 ------------*******

146,500,484,426.22 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4530522&mesg_id=4530541

[Festivito]

60. Debt: 09/07/2010 13,438,770,879,030.74 (UP 3,427,707,842.87) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Dr. cancelled, little later. Borrowed car, alarmed! Job. Fix tire. Buy gas, get suspicious. Set alarm, quick morn.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,933,304,360,324.20 + 4,505,466,518,706.54
UP 22,960,425.76 + UP 3,404,747,417.11

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.40 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,038,639 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,345.47.
A family of three owes $130,036.41. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,848,027,704.47.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,288,553,649.95.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,020,519,046.82.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 234 reports in 342 days of FY2010 averaging 6.53B$ per report, 4.47B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 866 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/07/2010 13,438,770,879,030.74 BHO (UP 2,811,893,830,117.66 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,528,941,875,519.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,631,765,451,942.79 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon
08/31/2010 +077,584,457,403.73 ------------**********
09/01/2010 -002,618,329,750.58 --
09/02/2010 +008,773,043,668.95 ------------*********
09/03/2010 +000,065,447,919.59 ------------*******
09/07/2010 +000,022,960,425.76 ------------******* Tue

107,996,231,828.17 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4532075&mesg_id=4532148

[Roland99]

27. Futures are hopping because, well, you know, Portugal is ALL THAT! (and a bag of chips)

S&P 500 1,094 +2.80 +0.26%
DOW 10,371 +33.00 +0.32%
NASDAQ 1,867 +9.50 +0.51%


Stock futures rise after Portuguese bond auction
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-edge-lower-ahead-of-feds-beige-book-2010-09-08?dist=beforebell

[Ghost Dog]

32. Portugal? It says here, because of BP:

:shrug:

TORONTO, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Toronto's main stock index looked set to open higher on Wednesday as gold prices rose for a third day, but gains could be offset by weaker oil and base metals, with investors also looking to the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision.

...

* U.S. stock index futures rose, tracking a turnaround in European stocks and ahead of comments from the Federal Reserve on the state of the economy.

* European shares firmed, as BP lifted oil majors after it released a report into its Gulf of Mexico oil spill, offsetting falls in banks on concerns over the financial sector's resilience.

* Markets in Asia fell, led by shares in Japan's big exporters as a rise in the yen to a new 15-year high threatened to erode their overseas earnings.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/17905713-canada-stocks-tsx-may-open-higher-boosted-by-gold-rush-020.htm


Ah, I see. BP's report (partly) blames Halliburton's cement. Ha ha ha.

It did not appear that Halliburton conducted all relevant lab tests on the final cement slurry prior to proceeding with cement placement. The investigation team saw no evidence that the BP Macondo well team confirmed that all relevant lab test results had been obtained and considered by the Halliburton in-house cementing engineer before cement placement proceeded.

Link: /... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/08/337361/it-was-the-cements-fault/

[Roland99]

34. Someone could find a BOGO deal at Starbucks and the markets would rally.

[Ghost Dog]

48. Also BP-related: S&P cuts Transocean ratings on liability risk

NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Transocean Ltd's credit ratings were cut by Standard&Poor's on Wednesday due to potential liability stemming from its role in the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig the company leased to BP.

S&P cut Transocean's rating by one notch to BBB, two levels above junk ratings, and placed the company's rating on negative outlook, indicating it may cut the ratings again.

'Offshore drilling company Transocean Inc is exposed to numerous potential liabilities stemming from the Macondo well blowout and, in our view, contractual indemnifications by BP Plc could be contested in the future,' S&P said in a statement.

...

BP Plc played down on Wednesday its role in the rig blast that led to the world's worst offshore oil spill, seeking to share the blame with its contractors, Transocean and Halliburton.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/17908891-s-p-cuts-transocean-ratings-on-liability-risk-020.htm

[Ghost Dog]

49. European shares at 4-month closing high; ARM gains

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - European shares rose on Wednesday, with a key index making its highest close in four months, boosted by technology stocks as ARM Holdings jumped on renewed bid talks and as miners also gained.

ARM Holdings jumped 5.8 percent, with traders citing bid rumours, while RBS repeated its 'buy' rating on the firm after Samsung selected Arm's technology for its new mobile phone chip.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed 1 percent higher at 1,072 points, its highest close since 26 April, after being as low as 1,057.35.

Stocks also benefited from Portugal's successful raising of 1.04 billion euros ($1.32 billion) in the debt market. But Lisbon had to pay higher yields compared with previous sales, underscoring the challenging environment for peripheral euro zone issuers.

'The Portuguese debt well was perceived well and has helped the market,' said Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets in Brussels. 'But, there is still uncertainty about the global economies and the markets are reacting positively or negatively to minor news as they can't get the answer to the bigger questions. The market is within a trading range and there are wild intraday swings.'

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/17908888-european-shares-at-4-month-closing-high-arm-gains-020.htm

[wordpix]

39. could it be they're rising because Obama will tax the rich for once?

:eyes: Maybe the markets are getting smarter

[Hawkowl]

40. Fiscal responsibility is bullish

I think you may have hit the nail on the head. The president said he'd veto extending tax cuts to the rich. The serious, big money apparently likes it.

[Warpy]

41. I think that's likely the reason, too

Institutional investment houses aren't run by stupid men. They know anything that takes the pressure off the money supply is a good thing at this point, and ending Stupid's reckless tax cuts to people who didn't need them will do just that.

Think of how the market would soar if he actually raised their taxes!

The whining would be deafening, of course.

[Roland99]

44. ER to run credit checks

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9096587

[DemReadingDU]

45. Artist's Impression Of A HFT Trading Terminal

9/8/10 Artist's Impression Of A HFT Trading Terminal




Click link at ZeroHedge for larger image
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/artists-impression-hft-trading-terminal

[Roland99]

50. U.S. sells 10-yr debt at lowest yield in 20 months

U.S. sells 10-yr debt at lowest yield in 20 months

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-sells-10-yr-debt-at-lowest-yield-in-20-months-2010-09-08

[Hawkowl]

54. But, but defecits matter!

Considering that historically, the argument for huge deficits is that government would "crowd" out private investment and interest rates would go through the roof, your article is plainly impossible. :sarcasm:

[Joe Chi Minh]

58. Even more brilliant cartoon than usual!