STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 9

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 9, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 8, 2010

Dow 10,387.01 +46.32 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,228.87 +19.98 (+0.90%)
S&P 500 1,098.87 +7.03 (+0.64%)
Gold future... 1,257 -1.00 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.66 +0.00 (+0.15%)
30-Year Bond 3.73 +0.00 (+0.11%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 09/04
Briefing.com 475K
Consensus 470K
Prior 472K

08:30 Continuing Claims 08/28
Briefing.com 4450K
Consensus 4445K
Prior 4456K

08:30 Trade Balance Jul
Briefing.com -$46.5B
Consensus -$47.3B
Prior -$49.9B

11:00 Crude Inventories 09/03
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 3.42M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

16. 8:30 reports: Initial Claims @ 451,000 - last wk rev'd up 7k

4-week avg continuing claims down 3,250 to 4.49M

Continuing claims fall 2,000 to 4.48 million

4-week average of claims down 9,250 to 477,750

Weekly jobless claims down 27,000 to 451,000

[Roland99]

19. Jobless claims decline by 27,000 to 451,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-decline-by-27000-to-451000-2010-09-09?dist=beforebell

The number of initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance benefits fell 27,000 to 451,000, seasonally adjusted, in the week ended Sept. 4, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a level of 470,000. The four-week average of initial claims -- a more accurate gauge of employment trends -- fell 9,250 to 477,750. The number of workers who continued to receive state unemployment checks fell by 2,000 to 4.48 million in the week ended Aug. 28. The four-week average of these continuing claims fell 3,250 to 4.49 million, the lowest level since December of 2008. Altogether, about 9.67 million people were collecting some type of unemployment benefit in the week ended Aug. 21, compared with about 9.73 million in the prior week

[Ghost Dog]

23. Well, these numbers are very good, obviously.

:silly:

I think I need an exotic massage, too. My back as well as my head is hurting.

[DemReadingDU]

27. Nine States Did Not File Initial Claims Data Due To Labor Day, Hundreds Of Thousands Of Estimates

9/9/10 Nine States Did Not File Initial Claims Data Due To Labor Day, Hundreds Of Thousands Of Estimates In Data "Beat"

The BLS has announced that as a result of the Labor Day weekend, 9 states (among which the biggest one California) did not report initial claims data to the bean counters, so instead the government had to "estimate" what the data would have been: yep, estimate, what the data was in these nine states. From Bloomberg: "For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day holiday earlier this week, a department official told reporters. California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven." Official data is now made up on the fly. This US economic data reporting has just entered the twilight zone. Also, when the data is officially made up, it is not that difficult to get data that is "better than expected." The full list of states is: DC, Illinois, Idaho, Hawaii, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Washington. California and Virginia estimated themselves.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nine-states-did-not-file-initial-claims-data-due-labor-day-hundreds-thousands-estimates-data



Anything to rally the markets

[Dr.Phool]

35. Don't it figure?

They're missing at least 20% of their data, so they just guess. I give up.

Do I cry? :cry: :cry: :cry:


Or just go batshit crazy, laughing?

:rofl: :rofl: :crazy: :silly: :silly: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :crazy: :crazy: :silly: :silly: :silly: :silly: :crazy: :crazy: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:


:wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf: :wtf:

[Demeter]

39. Vapordata, Yet Again

Why do they even bother? Is this the WPA job program, making shit up for public deception?

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises to near $75 amid US crude supply drop

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose to near $75 a barrel Thursday in Asia after a report showed U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected, suggesting demand may be improving.

Crude inventories fell 7.3 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., had forecast a drop of 730,000 barrels. Inventories of gasoline and distillates rose, the API said.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports its weekly supply data later Thursday.

In other Nymex trading in October contracts, heating oil rose 0.12 cent to $2.0823 a gallon and gasoline was steady at $1.94 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery gained 1.4 cents to $3.828 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Festivito]

3. Debt: 09/07/2010 13,438,770,879,030.74 (UP 3,427,707,842.87) (Tue)

(Up a little. I'm way too busy. Good day.)
Dr. cancelled, little later. Borrowed car, alarmed! Job. Fix tire. Buy gas, get suspicious. Set alarm, quick morn.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,933,304,360,324.20 + 4,505,466,518,706.54
UP 22,960,425.76 + UP 3,404,747,417.11

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.40 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,038,639 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,345.47.
A family of three owes $130,036.41. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,848,027,704.47.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,288,553,649.95.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,020,519,046.82.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 234 reports in 342 days of FY2010 averaging 6.53B$ per report, 4.47B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 866 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/07/2010 13,438,770,879,030.74 BHO (UP 2,811,893,830,117.66 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,528,941,875,519.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,631,765,451,942.79 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon
08/31/2010 +077,584,457,403.73 ------------**********
09/01/2010 -002,618,329,750.58 --
09/02/2010 +008,773,043,668.95 ------------*********
09/03/2010 +000,065,447,919.59 ------------*******
09/07/2010 +000,022,960,425.76 ------------******* Tue

107,996,231,828.17 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4532075&mesg_id=4532148

[Festivito]

42. Debt: 09/08/2010 13,435,355,520,330.43 (DOWN 3,415,358,700.31) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Sturgis looked nice, everything else was a mess.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,933,704,283,143.32 + 4,501,651,237,187.11
UP 399,922,819.12 + DOWN 3,815,281,519.43

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.34 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,045,285 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,333.53.
A family of three owes $130,000.58. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,445,271,773.83.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,174,708,359.94.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,795,189,418.12.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 235 reports in 343 days of FY2010 averaging 6.49B$ per report, 4.45B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 865 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/08/2010 13,435,355,520,330.43 BHO (UP 2,808,478,471,417.35 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,525,526,516,818.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,623,373,698,655.47 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon
08/31/2010 +077,584,457,403.73 ------------**********
09/01/2010 -002,618,329,750.58 --
09/02/2010 +008,773,043,668.95 ------------*********
09/03/2010 +000,065,447,919.59 ------------*******
09/07/2010 +000,022,960,425.76 ------------******* Tue
09/08/2010 +000,399,922,819.12 ------------********

108,309,208,279.68 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4533475&mesg_id=4533478

[ozymandius]

4. U.S. slips in WEF's competitiveness rankings

BEIJING (Reuters) – Switzerland remains the world's most competitive economy, while the United States has fallen from second to fourth after losing the top spot last year, according to the World Economic Forum's annual rankings issued on Thursday.

Sweden, in second spot, and Singapore in third leapfrogged the United States in the WEF's Global Competitiveness Report 2010/2011.

The WEF said America slipped in the ranking due to a build-up in U.S. macroeconomic imbalances, a weakening of the country's public and private institutions and concerns about the state of its financial markets.

The WEF bases its assessment on a dozen drivers of competitiveness, including institutions, infrastructure, health and education, market size and the macroeconomic environment.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100909/bs_nm/us_economy_competitiveness

[ozymandius]

5. Economists cut U.S. growth forecast again

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Projected U.S. economic growth for the rest of this year and next was revised down for a third month in a row by a panel of about 50 economists.

The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators report on Thursday said the weaker outlook for second-half 2010 growth stemmed from lower expectations for consumer spending, business investment and private construction.

Its consensus forecast for real GDP growth in 2011 was cut by 0.3 of a percentage point from a month ago to 2.5 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100909/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_bluechip

---

2-3/4% growth is average for Blue Chips.

[Loge23]

13. The New Normal "C" Economy

Two excellent reads today on the Business Insider argue that the "C" in the GDP formula (Consumer spending) will remain the Achilles Heel in the recovery. The big problem of deleveraged personal balance sheets will plague us for, according to The Pragmatic Capitalist, until at least 2012. I find that estimate optimistic in the light of the changed (possibly forever) playing field for what used to known as the Middle Class. No manufacturing base and the ever-unquenchable thirst for even lower process of goods will basically doom us to the New Normal. On another DU thread this AM, Mike Moore takes on the WH thug-in-charge Rahm Emanuel, on Emanuel's "tribute" to the Labor unions. Remember them?
We got what we asked for, America. But don't worry! All of those manufacturing jobs can come back once we start competing with OTHER third world countries!


"Deleveraging.
You've heard this term a lot because it's a huge deal, and the fact that households are still deeply in debt (though not as bad as they were two years ago) is a major drag on consumer spending."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/household-deleveraging-2010-9#ixzz0z1yCpGol

...and this one:

"As I expected, the initial stimulus plan helped give the appearance of recovery, but it did not solve the actual problem. It merely papered over the problems and injected some short-term relief. The problem of debt was still (and still is) brewing under the surface. Now as the stimulus effect wears off we are realizing that the household sector remains incredibly weak, but there is no political will to attempt to solve the problems at hand. Ultimately, these problems will persist until the problem of debt has been reduced to a point that can sustain higher levels of expenditures. By my estimates, the current trajectory of debt repayment and economic growth leads me to believe this cannot occur until 2012 at the earliest.

What this all likely means is that growth will remain well below trend as the consumer continues to de-leverage. This creates a particularly uncertain environment for corporations and leaves the economy highly susceptible to exogenous risks (China, European debt crisis, housing double dip, etc). Political gridlock and continued misdiagnosis in government will certainly not help. Welcome to the balance sheet recession boys and girls. Enjoy your stay."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-depressing-math-behind-americas-economic-predicament-2010-9#ixzz0z1zBqpTY

[ozymandius]

6. SEC defends $75 million deal with Citigroup

WASHINGTON – The government is defending as "fair and adequate" its $75 million settlement with Citigroup Inc. over charges it misled investors about billions in potential losses from subprime mortgages.

The Securities and Exchange Commission made its case in a filing Wednesday to a federal judge, who said last month she was "baffled" by the proposed settlement and wasn't
ready to approve it without more information. The SEC said the $75 million penalty is "fair, adequate, reasonable and in the public interest."

The SEC announced the settlement of unintentional civil fraud charges in late July. The agency had accused the third-largest U.S. bank of repeatedly making misleading statements in calls with analysts and regulatory filings about the extent of its holdings tied to high-risk mortgages. Citigroup had said the exposure was $13 billion or less; the SEC said it exceeded $50 billion.

In a hearing last month, U.S. District Court Judge Ellen Segal Huvelle asked SEC attorneys why the bank's shareholders should be punished for the alleged misdeeds of Citigroup executives. The agency also settled charges with former Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden, who agreed to pay a $100,000 civil penalty, and the former head of investor relations, Arthur Tildesley Jr., who agreed to pay $80,000. Tildesley now is the head of cross marketing at Citigroup.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sec_citigroup_settlement

[ozymandius]

7. Flash crash report: plunge still a mystery: sources

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – Regulators probing the stock market "flash crash" last May still have not uncovered a single cause but will point to "stub quotes" and other previously identified issues as having exacerbated the market's dramatic drop, according to two sources familiar with the probe.

A third source said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is still asking about a "smoking gun" that might explain the May 6 crash, when the Dow Jones industrial average plunged some 700 points before sharply recovering, all in about 20 minutes.

But the SEC is increasingly probing market data from other trading days, looking for possible problems with what are sometimes excessive numbers of buy and sell orders, said the third source. The worry is that such a flood of orders could clog data feeds and confuse investors, giving the sender an unfair advantage to arbitrage between marketplaces.

Quote stuffing, a new term describing this possibly illegal trading practice, differs from stub quotes, which are orders placed well off the market prices for stocks.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100908/bs_nm/us_sec_flashcrash

---

This mystery will be the latest among the vast "unsolved" wonders.

[DemReadingDU]

18. I think the 'flash crash' was a test

Whoever 'crashed' the market on May 6, will do it again. The next time will be a day that will live in infamy.


Just my opinion.

[Po_d Mainiac]

24. A successful parasite may weaken the host

But never kill it. In order for the parasite to thrive, the host must continue to live.

When too many parasites invade the same host, all face the prospect of death.

[Demeter]

25. A Case of Pushing the Limits, or Envelope

I don't think it was intentional....because that could only be done once. These guys depend on repeat business to make their bonuses.

That's not to say someone wouldn't or couldn't decide to use this new knowledge to make a killing---but would they be allowed to get away with it?

[DemReadingDU]

28. They've gotten away for 4 months now

Somebody programmed those high speed computers, and certain conditions were met that resulted in the 'flash crash'. Next time those conditions could be met at appx 3:55, such that the bottom falls out of the market. There would not be enough time to put on the circuit breakers. Only those doing the 'test' would benefit, of course.

http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html

Just my opinion.
:P

[Demeter]

29. It's a Little Too Public for Crime

Not to say that those massive egos wouldn't consider it...

[TalkingDog]

34. Rogue Waves

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_wave

Rogue waves seem to occur in deep water or where a number of physical factors such as strong winds and fast currents converge. This may have a focusing effect, which can cause a number of waves to join together.

Diffractive focusing — According to this hypothesis, coast shape or seabed shape directs several small waves to meet in phase. Their crest heights combine to create a freak wave.<7>

Focusing by currents — Waves from one current are driven into an opposing current. This results in shortening of wavelength, causing shoaling (i.e., increase in wave height), and oncoming wave trains to compress together into a rogue wave.<7> This happens off the South African coast, where the Agulhas current is countered by westerlies.

Nonlinear effects — It seems possible to have a rogue wave occur by natural, nonlinear processes from a random background of smaller waves.<8> In such a case, it is hypothesised, an unusual, unstable wave type may form which 'sucks' energy from other waves, growing to a near-vertical monster itself, before becoming too unstable and collapsing shortly after. One simple model for this is a wave equation known as the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLS), in which a normal and perfectly accountable (by the standard linear model) wave begins to 'soak' energy from the waves immediately fore and aft, reducing them to minor ripples compared to other waves. The NLS can be used in deep water conditions. In shallow water, waves are described by the Korteweg–de Vries equation or the Boussinesq equation. These equations also have non-linear contributions and show solitary-wave solutions.

Normal part of the wave spectrum — Rogue waves are not freaks at all but are part of normal wave generation process, albeit a rare extremity.<7>
Wind waves — While it is unlikely that wind alone can generate a rogue wave, its effect combined with other mechanisms may provide a fuller explanation of freak wave phenomena. As wind blows over the ocean, energy is transferred to the sea surface. When strong winds from a storm happens to blow in the opposing direction of the ocean current the forces might be strong enough to randomly generate rogue waves. Theories of instability mechanisms for the generation and growth of wind waves—although not on the causes of rogue waves—are provided by Phillips<9> and Miles.<10>






I wouldn't call what happens in the stock market a linear process. I has every earmark of an organic, non-linear entity. It is not unpredictable, but neither is it predictable. There are patterns that occur. But those patterns don't always produce the expected effect. The flash crash was a rogue vortex.

[Hawkowl]

43. Brilliant!

I think you have a brilliant analogy on your hands! Much better than a black swan--the rogue wave makes much more sense.

[ozymandius]

8. Goldman Sachs Fined $27 Million by U.K. for Not Reporting Probe

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s London unit was fined 17.5 million pounds ($27 million) for not notifying the U.K.’s financial regulator about a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into the bank’s marketing of a collateralized debt obligation.

Goldman Sachs, which agreed to pay $550 million in July to settle the SEC’s fraud lawsuit, was fined by the Financial Services Authority for weaknesses in its controls that resulted in the reporting failure, the agency said in a statement today. The firm qualified for the FSA’s standard 30 percent discount for cooperating.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a50FlCeynxQQ&pos=7

[Demeter]

26. What? The Brits Don't Get the Papers?

[ozymandius]

9. European Stocks Extend Four-Month High as Automakers Advance

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks rose for the fourth time in five days, extending a four-month high, as a rally in automakers outweighed declines by retailers. U.S. index futures and Asian shares gained.

Daimler AG paced a measure of carmakers to the highest level since October 2008 as Credit Suisse Group AG lifted its earnings estimates. Home Retail Group Plc, William Morrison Supermarkets Plc and HMV Plc led British retail shares lower. Axa SA dropped 1.5 percent as regulators blocked National Australia Bank Ltd.’s A$13.3 billion ($12.2 billion) takeover of Axa Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd. for a second time.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.4 percent to 263.34 at 10:35 a.m. in London, having earlier lost as much as 0.4 percent. The measure has rallied 13 percent from this year’s low in May as concern eased that efforts by European countries to tame their budget deficits would curb economic growth.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amIRgipvGA8s&pos=2

[Ghost Dog]

14. Euro Falls as ECB's Stark Adds to European Financial Concerns

Europe’s currency weakened versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts after FT Deutschland reported European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark as saying some German banks need more capital. Australia’s dollar rose to a four-month high against the greenback after a report showed the South Pacific nation added more jobs in August than economists forecast.

“There seem to be financial problems in Germany as well as in the region,” said Toshihiko Sakai, head of trading for currencies and financial products in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp., a unit of Japan’s largest financial group by market value. “The trend is for the euro to weaken.”

...

A report tomorrow will likely show growth in Italian industrial production slowed. Production in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, grew less than economists forecast, according to an Economy Ministry report yesterday.

Stark told members of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats party that Germany’s Sparkasse savings banks, which weren’t subject to recent European stress tests, and state-owned Landesbanks are particularly at risk, FTD reported.

The Association of German Banks said this week the nation’s 10 biggest lenders may need about 105 billion euros ($134 billion) in fresh capital.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-09/euro-falls-as-ecb-s-stark-reported-saying-german-banks-need-more-capital.html


ECB RESEARCH-Rising debt, market aversion a risky combination

FRANKFURT, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The combination of rising national debts and risk averse financial markets carries potentially large macroeconomic risks, the ECB said in its monthly bulletin on Thursday.

An article in the ECB's September bulletin said that a loss of confidence in the sustainability of public finances in one country could spread and infect all parts of a financial system, from banks and pension funds to individual investors.

It warned the problems could also choke an economy's credit supply. They could sap the worth of government bonds, assets frequently used by banks as collateral to finance lending.

It said that to avoid such problems, highly indebted euro area countries needed to commit to longer-term fiscal consolidation, although it was impossible to judge what level of debt would be seen as acceptable for markets.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/17914866-ecb-research-rising-debt-market-aversion-a-risky-combination-020.htm

[Ghost Dog]

15. UK July goods trade gap hits record as imports surge

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's goods trade deficit with the rest of the world unexpectedly widened to a record high in July after imports of chemicals and oil surged and exports fell, data showed on Thursday.

The total trade deficit, which includes services, also widened sharply to its highest in almost five years, denting hopes that exporters will be able to pick up the slack in the economy as consumer and government spending slows.

The Office for National Statistics said Britain's goods trade gap widened to 8.667 billion pounds in July from 7.532 billion in June, wrong-footing analysts who had expected a broadly unchanged reading.

July's deficit was the biggest since the series started in January 1998 and has not been exceeded in earlier but non-comparable records that date back to 1697.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE68816320100909

[ozymandius]

10. Asia Stocks Climb, Australian Dollar Gains, Commodities Drop

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for the first time in three days and the Australian dollar gained to a four-month high as employment grew more than expected. Commodities fell on speculation China’s government was investigating rubber trades.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.8 percent to 121.40 at 4 p.m. in Tokyo, driven by a 1 percent increase in the S&P/ASX 200 gauge. The Stoxx Europe 600 decreased 0.2 percent to 261.79 at 8 a.m. in London. The Aussie gained against 15 of 16 major counterparts, rising to 92.09 U.S. cents from 91.82 cents in New York. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. Rubber futures dived 3.9 percent in Shanghai.

About two shares advanced for each one that fell on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.8 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.3 percent.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aRDVmQnMaJKg

[ozymandius]

11. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut: Work calls. Have a wonderful day.

:hi:

[tclambert]

12. Bought some American made shoes yesterday. Red Wing.

Real leather. American made. Al "Bundy" at the Red Wing shoe store explained that not all of their shoes are American made. You have to ask. I bought cheap Chinese made shoes for the last few years. I had to put gel insoles in them to make them comfy and the synthetic (urethane) uppers cracked after less than a year. Al's shoes cost more, but should last a lot longer, felt good as soon as I put them on, and the store gives lifetime polishing, waterproofing, and lacing service. (No, they won't tie them for you every morning). I actually like to polish my own shoes. Still, I want to see how good a job he does.

I voted with a few dollars for American manufacturing. That's how you vote every day for the kind of future you want.

[Roland99]

17. I think my next pair of dress shoes will be from a vintage clothing store or consignment shop.

you know...I just had to check. I have on a pair of Ecco dress shoes (got them free after the sole on my other pair disintegrated, even though the shoes were several years old). European design.


Chinese made.


*sigh*

[Po_d Mainiac]

21. The joy of retirement

These "American made" OEM callouses came factory equipped....Kinda useless in the snow tho
:hide:

[TalkingDog]

36. If you want them to last, check to see if you have a cobbler in town

I know our local cobbler and used to work at his store when I went to Community College. I've seen shoes that were literally 40 years old come through that shop. Half sole and a heel will cost you, but not as much as a new pair. With the added bonus of not having to break them in.

Shoes are like cars. Maintain them and they will last forever.

[cal04]

20. Jobless claims decline by 27,000 to 451,000, Treasurys fall after jobless claims

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-decline-by-27000-to-451000-2010-09-09?dist=beforebell

Jobless claims decline by 27,000 to 451,000
The number of initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance benefits fell 27,000 to 451,000, seasonally adjusted, in the week ended Sept. 4, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a level of 470,000. The four-week average of initial claims -- a more accurate gauge of employment trends -- fell 9,250 to 477,750. The number of workers who continued to receive state unemployment checks fell by 2,000 to 4.48 million in the week ended Aug. 28. The four-week average of these continuing claims fell 3,250 to 4.49 million, the lowest level since December of 2008. Altogether, about 9.67 million people were collecting some type of unemployment benefit in the week ended Aug. 21, compared with about 9.73 million in the prior week.



Treasurys fall after jobless claims

Treasurys fell on Thursday, sending yields higher, after the Labor Department said jobless claims fell 27,000 to 451,000 in the latest week. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a level of 470,000. Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasurys /quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y (UST10Y 2.69, +0.04, +1.51%) , which move inversely to prices, were up 3 basis points at 2.690%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-fall-after-jobless-claims-2010-09-09

[Dr.Phool]

22. If anybody needs a good laugh, this made my day.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9098338

The link is hilarious!

http://www.27bslash6.com/foggot.html

[skoalyman]

30. that was hilarious Doc

:rofl:

[Roland99]

31. omfg!!

:rofl: :rofl:

[jtuck004]

32. Oh man, that's fonny n/t

[Warpy]

33. OK, that really did make me laugh out loud

and since very little does these days, thanks!

[Roland99]

37. The rest of the site is just as funny!

[wordpix]

41. very funny!

[Doctor_J]

38. the Viking should hire some Viet Namese 11-year-olds to row

that works for a lot of enterprises these days

[Demeter]

40. Something Short of a Miracle

A good push doesn't even last 3 hours, any more. Barely got within kissing of 10500, and then nothing.

Anybody got a hobby horse to ride this weekend? NOT 9/11...or should we? Maybe life before 9/11? Too painful for me. Too much regret.

Garfunkel is losing his voice--cancelled their reunion tour. Doesn't look good.

It's been a rotten week, and I'll be delivering NYT from Saturday on for a friend on vacation...How about Sleep, and all it's cultural connotations:

Sleeping Beauty, Sleeping Dragons, lullabys, sleeping sickness, insomnia, dreams...yes, and really bad jokes!

That sleeping nation that was rudely awakened by 9/11---it all ties in!