STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 28

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 28, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 27, 2010

Dow 10,812.04 -48.22 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,369.77 -11.45 (-0.48%)
S&P 500 1,142.16 -6.51 (-0.57%)
Gold future... $1,300.70/oz.
10-Yr Bond... 2.54 +0.01 (+0.28%)
30-Year Bond 3.73 +0.01 (+0.13%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jul
Briefing.com 3.1%
Consensus 3.3%
Prior 4.23%

10:00 Consumer Confidence Sep
Briefing.com 54.0
Consensus 53.0
Prior 53.5

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[rfranklin]

51. MARKETWATCH: Homes data buttress Street..0.6%...wowie zowie!

Sept. 28, 2010, 9:19 a.m. EDT

Home prices rise 0.6% in July: Case-Shiller
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The prices of single-family homes in 20 major cities rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.6% in July, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. Prices have moved up 3.2% in the past year, down from 4.2% in June. Prices rose in 12 of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by Case-Shiller in July compared with June. Economists expect home prices to moderate in coming months as demand as slowed.

[Roland99]

52. Something tells me it's more along the lines of a slowdown in short sales/foreclosures

rather than actual prices going up.

Be interesting to see how those prices go in a few months after the newest round of increased foreclosures finally hit the market.

[OnlinePoker]

55. Consumer Confidence only 48.5%

Not looking good heading into the Christmas shopping season.

[Po_d Mainiac]

61. People are starting to realize they weren't being assisted over the fence.

That rash in the split just above the lower extremities, was caused by abuse.

The attempt to paint housing numbers in a positive light faded faster than a pair of denims in a bath of battery acid. Now the holes are starting to grow.

1 : 7 now at or below the poverty level

If you are trying to sell a home, fergedaboutit till spring. Houses don't sell when school is in session. If all your assets are in a home, fergedabout discovering that actual value till spring also.

Massive currency devaluations that are killing savings accounts

No wonder people ain't giddy with the prospects of the future ?

[ozymandius]

2. Oil slides below $76 as traders eye US supplies

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slid below $76 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders awaited the latest U.S. supply figures for clues about the strength of demand for crude.

Crude inventories likely rose 2.2 million barrels last week, according to analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. The American Petroleum Institute plans to announce its inventory numbers later Tuesday while the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports its weekly supply data Wednesday.

In other Nymex trading in October contracts, heating oil fell 1.28 cents to $2.110 a gallon and gasoline dropped 0.28 cent to $1.946 a gallon. Natural gas was steady at 3.797 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

74. For some reason, gas up a dime on Tuesday here

[ozymandius]

3. Census finds record gap between rich and poor

WASHINGTON – The income gap between the richest and poorest Americans grew last year to its widest amount on record as young adults and children in particular struggled to stay afloat in the recession.

The top-earning 20 percent of Americans — those making more than $100,000 each year — received 49.4 percent of all income generated in the U.S., compared with the 3.4 percent earned by those below the poverty line, according to newly released census figures. That ratio of 14.5-to-1 was an increase from 13.6 in 2008 and nearly double a low of 7.69 in 1968.

A different measure, the international Gini index, found U.S. income inequality at its highest level since the Census Bureau began tracking household income in 1967. The U.S. also has the greatest disparity among Western industrialized nations.

Lower-skilled adults ages 18 to 34 had the largest jumps in poverty last year as employers kept or hired older workers for the dwindling jobs available, Smeeding said. The declining economic fortunes have caused many unemployed young Americans to double-up in housing with parents, friends and loved ones, with potential problems for the labor market if they don't get needed training for future jobs, he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100928/ap_on_bi_ge/us_census_recession_s_impact

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This stat in bold underscores the abject stupidity of two policy proposals circulating today. First, raising the retirement age for Social Security benefits will increase the competition for entry level jobs. Second point in two parts: (a) taxing the highest income earners less fails to address the problems concerning persistent joblessness and; (b) concentrated income in a small segment of the population decreases revenue needed to service the basis systems upon which we all depend.

[Papa Boule]

10. Wow. Just... wow.

[tclambert]

20. It's like the wealthy WANT to make us more like a Latin American severely stratified society.

Hey, maybe we'll get a multi-billion dollar a year kidnapping industry here, too!

[Ghost Dog]

23. Question regarding this report on these statistics

The AP piece gives us data on 'the richest 5%' and 'the richest 20%' of Americans, and on 'those' below the poverty line and below half the poverty line.

The piece says in addition that

The 2009 poverty level was set at $21,954 for a family of four, based on an official government calculation that includes only cash income. It excludes noncash aid such as food stamps.

and that

The share of Americans below half the poverty line — $10,977 for a family of four — rose from 5.7 percent in 2008 to 6.3 percent. It was the highest level since the government began tracking that group in 1975. (This would appear to contradict the earlier statement that "3.4 percent {of all income was} earned by those below the poverty line.")

but we are not told what percentage of Americans fall into these latter categories.

Does anyone have these numbers?

I also wanted to know, if these statistics are counting 'households', they will not include the 'homeless', who data-wise are deemed not to exist, is that correct?

I also note, of course, that these numbers all refer to 'declared income', not assets or other capital.

[Po_d Mainiac]

27. link

The info you are looking for is about a third down the page

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_States

[Loge23]

49. Isn't this what's behind the "bash the teacher" movement?

Public education is overwhelmed with the children of the uneducated. We see these young people everyday - all they ever have had even a chance to learn is in school - a place that their family, in many cases, has placed very little value on.
There are so many deeply structured reasons why public education has found itself in the condition it currently is in. IMO, teachers are a part of the SOLUTION - not the PROBLEM. I am outraged at the tide of anti-teacher sentiment that even a left-elected President has the nerve to foster. What's next? Tea-baggers demonstrating at schools?

[Tansy_Gold]

50. It makes you really want to sit Obama down, and one-on-one ask him

what the fucking hell he thinks he's doing. Does he have the slightest clue? I seriously begin to wonder, because if he's really that stupid, that totally blind to the real world situations he's dealing with, then he has no business being president.

And if he sees the situation and still believes in the policies his administration is advocating, then he's no democrat.

But no one will ask him those questions. Ever.



TG, NTY

[Loge23]

57. Change - as in what used to be a Dem

Clearly, Obama's agenda so far has changed mainly what were accepted Democratic values - at least accepted by the majority of Dem voters.
The most troubling development (or lack thereof) is how few elected Dems bother to tell the story about how destructive Rep. policies are. Obama has taken the predictably easy route now by criticizing the tax breaks. Meanwhile, the Lilliputians have essentially tied him down. That may be how it looks, but you really have to wonder if he doesn't mind the rest. This is, I'm afraid, the real change.

[Demeter]

58. Except Thee and Me

I think he is an idiot. Unseasoned.

We need an LBJ-depth of experience, a Gandhi-ethic, and an EverReady Bunny energy in the White House.

Instead, we got a nebbish.

[54anickel]

69. Funny, they changed the headline and edited the beginning of the story in an attempt to bury

the findings you posted Ozy. Here's the new headline and lead in paragraphs. Gotta wonder where those orders came from...

Census data: Marriages in 2009 at record low level


WASHINGTON – The recession took a dramatic toll on the institution of marriage in America last year, new figures show, with weddings for people 18 and older at the lowest ebb in over a hundred years.

A broad array of new Census Bureau data released Tuesday documents the far-reaching impact of a business slump that experts say technically ended in June 2009: a surging demand for food stamps, considerably fewer homeowners and people doubling up in housing to save money.

[ozymandius]

4. Interest rates fell at weekly Treasury auction

WASHINGTON – Interest rates on short-term Treasury bills fell in Monday's auction with rates on six-month bills dropping to the lowest level in three weeks.

The Treasury Department auctioned $29 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 0.155 percent, down from 0.160 percent last week. Another $29 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 0.190 percent, down from 0.195 percent last week.

Separately, the Federal Reserve said Monday that the average yield for one-year Treasury bills, a popular index for making changes in adjustable rate mortgages, fell to 0.25 percent last week from 0.26 percent the previous week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100927/ap_on_bi_ge/us_treasury_bills

[ozymandius]

5. World markets slide as bank worries offset deals

BANGKOK – World stock markets sank Tuesday as renewed worries about the health of Europe's banks offset optimism from a flurry of corporate deal making.

Major benchmarks in Europe all traded in negative territory. Britain's FTSE 100 was off 1 percent at 5,517.56, France's CAC-40 dropped 1.1 percent to 3,724.15 and Germany's DAX fell 0.9 percent to 6,222.56.

Markets in Asia shrugged off the Asian Development Bank raising its 2010 growth forecast for 44 developing and newly industrialized nations to 8.2 percent from a projection of 7.5 percent issued in April.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average slid 107.38, or 1.1 percent, to 9,495.76 with exporters hurt by the yen's sustained strength.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100928/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[Ghost Dog]

11. European shares fall on debt worries; data awaited

Investors are likely to await a slew of economic data from the United States to gauge the pace of economic recovery. Key data include consumer confidence figures for September at 1400 GMT and the Standard&Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index at 1300 GMT.

...

'In Europe you have got worries about the banking system in the peripheral euro zone economies flaring up again and in general there are worries about the strength of the global economy.'

Adding to those jitters, the Spanish/German bond yield spread hit its widest since mid-July as investors worried about the country's credit ratings outlook. Spanish stocks shed 1.4 percent.

Spain could lose its final triple-A rating on its debt by Moody's this week, but the move is seen as catching-up with cuts to Spain's top rating by peers Standard&Poor's and Fitch last spring. 'Although Spain seems to no longer be in the bad boys club of the euro zone, the knock-on effect is inevitable,' a Madrid-based trader said.

...

Among the biggest individual fallers, Michelin shed 8.2 percent -- its sharpest sell-off in 19 months -- after the tyre maker announced a deeply discounted rights issue of about 1.2 billion euros to boost investments and enhance its credit rating.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/18079437-european-shares-fall-on-debt-worries-data-awaited-020.htm

[Ghost Dog]

12. China backs debt-strained EU before Wen visit

BEIJING, Sept 28 (Reuters) - China gave its backing on Tuesday to efforts by European Union countries to tackle their debt problems, ahead of a visit to Greece and other member states by Premier Wen Jiabao that will focus on the economy.

Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying said Wen's visit to Greece next week would also include unveiling agreements on shipping and ship financing.

'While in Greece, a focus of discussions could be how to respond to the current (financial) crisis,' Fu told a news conferences about Wen's trip from October 2 to 9.

The debt strains facing a number of EU states also would be on the agenda when Premier Wen visits Belgium and Italy, as well and also meets senior EU finance officials in Brussels, said Fu.

Wen will also visit Turkey.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/18080250-update-1-china-backs-debt-strained-eu-before-wen-visit-020.htm

[Ghost Dog]

13. UK growth unrevised at 9-yr high in Q2, Q1 improves (but...)

LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Britain's economy grew at its fastest pace in nine years in the second quarter of 2010 and growth in the first three months of the year was revised slightly higher, official data showed on Tuesday.

Analysts, however, said the pace of growth is likely to fall sharply given that it has relied heavily on a drop in household saving and a big rise in government spending.

The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product grew 1.2 percent in the three months to June, confirming an estimate published last month and in line with economists' forecasts.

...

Britain's economy has bounced back strongly from its deepest recession since World War Two but most economists expect growth to slow sharply due to impending government spending cuts (Austerity) and weak overseas demand.

'The prospects for growth don't look particularly stunning at this stage,' said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank. 'It's hard to see how households can do anything but retrench next year.'

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/18079735-update-1-uk-growth-unrevised-at-9-yr-high-in-q2-q1-improves-020.htm

[Ghost Dog]

14. Egypt sees 2010-11 growth of at least 6 pct

CAIRO, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Egypt's budget deficit will dip below 8 percent of its output this year, helped by growth that should meet government expectations of at least 6 percent, ministers said on Tuesday.

...

Fund managers and other investors have been attracted by Egypt's resilient economic expansion in the global downturn, with growth bottoming out just below 5 percent. They remain wary ahead of the 2011 presidential poll, however, which could bring an end to Mubarak's three decades in power.

...

In a separate interview for the newspaper, Trade Minister Rachid Mohamed Rachid, said measures to support the economy over the next 18 months, would include promoting public private partnership deals to attract as much as 50 billion pounds into projects including roads, water and drainage.

'The government is poised to take measures that will drive up growth in the domestic economy,' he told al-Mal. 'We want to go beyond the 6 to 7 percent growth barrier.'

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/18078642-update-2-egypt-sees-2010-11-growth-of-at-least-6-pct-020.htm

[Ghost Dog]

16. BOJ divided on need to ease policy next week

TOKYO, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is divided about the need to ease monetary policy next week, which may mean it delays taking action despite government calls for central bank measures to support the economy.

...

'The problem for the BOJ is that its policy options are limited and it's hard to make decisions when most or some people on its policy board acknowledge that recent easing has had small impacts on markets,' Adrian Foster, head of financial markets research with Rabobank International in Hong Kong, said.

'It is not intellectually rewarding when they keep expanding fund supplies but see the market impact is very very small.'

Government concerns stem from growing evidence that the economic recovery is faltering.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/18079081-update-3-boj-divided-on-need-to-ease-policy-next-week-020.htm

[ozymandius]

6. SEC: flash crash report will bring confidence

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The upcoming flash crash report will show that regulators have a "very deep understanding" of the marketplace, giving the public a measure of confidence, the head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Monday.

The May 6 crash knocked some 700 points off the Dow Jones industrial average before it sharply rebounded, all in about 20 minutes. No full explanation of the unprecedented breakdown has yet been given, stirring concerns among investors about the stability of the high-speed electronic marketplace.

Funds have exited mutual fund accounts in every week since the crash, according to data to the beginning of this month, fueling speculation that the crash continues to undermine investor confidence. Earlier this month, Schapiro said that trend was "troubling."

Schapiro said on Monday she still hopes the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will issue the joint report this month.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100928/bs_nm/us_financial_regulation_flashcrash_interview

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Good luck with the confidence boost. Sharp minds with professional-grade BS detectors are waiting for the report to be published. Meanwhile, trading volumes are still trending low although with an increase since August on average of 1.5 billion shares on the NYSE. This pales to the abundant confidence that routinely evidenced itself four years ago, pegging the meter at 8 to 10 billion shares daily.

[Papa Boule]

17. The thing is there have been several single-stock flash crashes since then

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/44-4-less-second-todays-flash-crash-brought-you-courtesy-nasdq-and-broken-circuit-breakers

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nanex-dissects-yesterdays-cmt-flash-crash-catches-bats-nasdaq-hft-algo-red-handed

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-fridays-flash-crash-plantronics-happened-despite-useless-circuit-breakers

[Demeter]

21. One of those was yesterday!

How can we get the blinders off?

[DemReadingDU]

25. ZeroHedge seems to be keeping track of these flash crashes

They seem to be getting more frequent, and involving more/different stocks.

[DemReadingDU]

67. Flash Crash with Apple today

9/28/10 More Flash Games: AAPL
And this time, it's not in a small company with a tiny trading volume:


click link for chart


On a single 1-minute bar, with over 1 million shares, or nearly $300 million dollars.

Rumors, games, or what?

Folks, this sort of crap is totally out of hand. And it's now a daily game that's being played by the machines, which are the only things that can react with this sort of speed, and they're guaranteed to screw you, the average investor or trader.

Go ahead, keep thinking you can invest. Keep thinking you can apply some sort of reasonable risk control to your investments, such as stop-loss orders. Keep thinking that those orders aren't instantly visible to people who shouldn't be able to see them, and who will as a consequence use their computers to instantly rape your stops at the narrowest opportunity, and who take essentially no risk in doing so, as they have the microsecond computer connection and you do not.

Keep believing in the scam folks.... just don't say I didn't warn you when you pull your stops due to all these games, and then the "real one" comes - the move down that doesn't immediately retrace - and you come home to find 10, 20, even 30% of your retirement vaporized. Again.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167728

[hamerfan]

75. I am chart-challenged

Sorry. Can anyone tell me what happened with AAPL stock today? I'm assuming that in a very short period of time, it went either way up or way down.
It closed today -4.30 at 286.86
Thanks!
hamerfan

[DemReadingDU]

76. AAPL took a nose dive

The price quickly dropped, in a matter of seconds, then regained most of what had declined. It is attributed to those High Frequency Trading algo programs.

Here's an article by Reggie Middleton...

Apple is one of the most liquid (obviously not, but alledgedly) and widely traded stocks in the US markets. It should be the LAST company to have to face an absolute dearth of buyers as its price drops on no fundamental news, whastsoever. Alas, that is exactly what happened. Check the charts…

Click on the charts to make them easier to read
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dissectint-apple-flash-crash-or-why-you-just-cant-trust-these-markets

[tclambert]

22. Who wants to play a casino where the machinery breaks down?

Give us at least the illusion that the game operates fairly.

When that flash crash happened, I was considering selling some stock. If I had entered the trade as a market order, I coulda got smoked. Ever since then, I have been careful to enter only limit orders.

Oh! It just occurred to me, if I had tried to BUY during that 20 minutes . . . no, no joy there, either. I always say, "Buy n number of shares." I might have got them for next to nothing, but somehow I think MY transaction would have managed to miss that magic 20 minutes.

[Festivito]

7. Debt: 09/24/2010 13,466,818,283,723.48 (UP 3,341,258,635.90) (Fri)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Long day again. Short night again.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,962,112,145,545.98 + 4,504,706,138,177.50
UP 34,117,767.19 + UP 3,307,140,868.71

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,224.23 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.67, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,151,624 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,420.11.
A family of three owes $130,260.34. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,152,894,931.66.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,183,886,114.27.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,081,180,110.59.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 247 reports in 359 days of FY2010 averaging 6.30B$ per report, 4.34B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 849 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/24/2010 13,466,818,283,723.48 BHO (UP 2,839,941,234,810.40 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,556,989,280,211.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,583,011,385,173.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/03/2010 +000,065,447,919.59 ------------*******
09/07/2010 +000,022,960,425.76 ------------******* Tue
09/08/2010 +000,399,922,819.12 ------------********
09/09/2010 +008,813,573,460.79 ------------*********
09/10/2010 -000,055,297,184.77 ----
09/13/2010 +000,091,299,524.00 ------------******* Mon
09/14/2010 +000,150,853,245.21 ------------********
09/15/2010 +064,417,149,283.94 ------------**********
09/16/2010 -036,646,694,679.28 -
09/17/2010 -000,203,034,896.34 ---
09/20/2010 +000,019,446,813.89 ------------******* Mon
09/21/2010 +000,509,875,602.04 ------------********
09/22/2010 -000,022,020,658.96 ----
09/23/2010 -008,701,405,875.05 --
09/24/2010 +000,034,117,767.19 ------------*******

28,896,193,567.13 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4554681&mesg_id=4554686

[Festivito]

77. Debt: 09/27/2010 13,468,173,874,830.08 (UP 1,355,591,106.60) (Mon)

(Down a little. Good day.)
How do I goof these up.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,962,045,737,733.70 + 4,506,128,137,096.38
DOWN 66,407,812.28 + UP 1,421,998,918.88

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,224.02 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.67, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,171,562 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,421.69.
A family of three owes $130,265.07. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 4,426,245,897.38.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,098,372,128.17.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,998,424,640.16.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 248 reports in 362 days of FY2010 averaging 6.28B$ per report, 4.30B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 846 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/27/2010 13,468,173,874,830.08 BHO (UP 2,841,296,825,917.00 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,558,344,871,318.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,571,259,331,577.84 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/07/2010 +000,022,960,425.76 ------------******* Tue
09/08/2010 +000,399,922,819.12 ------------********
09/09/2010 +008,813,573,460.79 ------------*********
09/10/2010 -000,055,297,184.77 ----
09/13/2010 +000,091,299,524.00 ------------******* Mon
09/14/2010 +000,150,853,245.21 ------------********
09/15/2010 +064,417,149,283.94 ------------**********
09/16/2010 -036,646,694,679.28 -
09/17/2010 -000,203,034,896.34 ---
09/20/2010 +000,019,446,813.89 ------------******* Mon
09/21/2010 +000,509,875,602.04 ------------********
09/22/2010 -000,022,020,658.96 ----
09/23/2010 -008,701,405,875.05 --
09/24/2010 +000,034,117,767.19 ------------*******
09/27/2010 -000,066,407,812.28 ---- Mon

28,764,337,835.26 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4556427&mesg_id=4556440

[ozymandius]

8. MetLife Probed by Regulators as Asset Accounts Called Deceptive

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Regulators in three U.S. states have started or widened examinations of how life insurers pay beneficiaries after a federal judge described MetLife Inc.’s marketing of asset accounts as “inherently deceptive,” even as he dismissed the underlying suit against the company.

The Sept. 10 statement by U.S. District Judge Larry Hicks in Reno, Nevada, may prompt regulators in that state, California and Georgia to use their broad legal powers to impose changes on insurers’ marketing, disclosures and practices.

The judge also said the name “Total Control Account Money Market Option” was “inherently deceptive because it gives the beneficiary the impression that the account is either a money- market account, or is associated with a money-market account, and contains the same benefits and protections that a money market account offers, namely that the account is insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. if MetLife was to become insolvent and file for bankruptcy.”

MetLife said it made more than $10 million last year in investment earnings for retained-asset accounts paying beneficiaries the contractually set interest rate, the judge said. Bloomberg Markets reported that MetLife makes $100 million to $300 million a year from returns on death benefits it holds.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahZwkbGkiwRs&pos=6

[Papa Boule]

18. It's not going to be pretty

if the day comes that big life insurance companies go under and stop paying off on policies people have been paying into for decades.

[tclambert]

24. If only those darn doctors would figure out how to give us immortality.

No, wait, eternal youth, that's what I want. Immortality without eternal youth sucks hard. I learned that from "Gulliver's Travels."

Hmm. Would immortality make a fortune for the life insurance companies, or put them out of business?

[ozymandius]

9. WTF Alert: Dow ‘Super Boom’ to Send Gauge to 38,820, Hirsch Says

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average will surge to 38,820 in an eight-year “super boom” beginning in 2017, according to Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor in chief of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac.”

“All previous major economic booms and secular bull markets were driven by peace, inflation from war and crisis spending, and ubiquitous enabling technologies that created major cultural paradigm shifts and sustained prosperity,” he wrote in a press release sent with the 44th edition of the book.

Hirsch’s forecast comes more than a decade after James K. Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett predicted the Dow would rise to 36,000 by 2005 in “Dow 36,000,” a New York Times bestseller. The 114-year-old average ended 1999 at 11,497.12 and sank as low as 7,286.27 in 2002 following the Internet bubble. The Dow then jumped to a record 14,164.53 in 2007 and fell to 6,547.05 in March 2009 after the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

The Dow closed today at 10,812.04, meaning it must gain 259 percent, or about 8.9 percent annually in 15 years, to reach Hirsch’s projection. It has lost an average of about 1.3 percent a year since the end of 1999. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.9 percent a year including dividends between 1999 and 2009, the first negative return for a decade since data began in 1927, according to S&P.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=a0fkAgaY_Vps

---

I am surprised that Mr. Hirsch was able to let go of the pipe long enough to make a statement.

[Papa Boule]

19. Could happen with hyperinflation, couldn't it?

Of course that's not what one would call a "boom."

[tclambert]

28. At +11% per year, the Dow should go up by a factor of 2.3 in 8 years.

So, from 10,578 on a certain day in January, 2001, it should have gone up to 24,300 by January, 2009. It was actually around 8,200. Somebody owes us 16,100 Dow points. (George something, I think his name was.)

OK, Hirsch says it will start in 2017. So, it hits 38,820 in 2025? That means it would only have to start 2017 at 16,878 and perform at an average pace. Well, that's doable, with a little lower than average growth in the next 6 and 1/2 years. Yeah, 8.9 percent annually for 15 years. That's what I get, too.

38,820 looks big compared to today, but you got 15 years of compounded interest, the "most powerful force in the universe."

Honestly, if we're talking 15 years out, I think his prediction falls on the low side. From 1985 to 2000, the Dow went from about 1,200 to 11,400, an increase of 850%. (Good times! Though that includes the crash of '87.)

[ozymandius]

15. Have a nice day, folks.

:donut: :donut: :donut: The world outside my door demands my attention.

:hi:

[Demeter]

26. Is leader of SEC fiduciary study leaning towards single standard?

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20100927/FREE/100929922



Retail investors should be able to rely on the financial guidance they receive, regardless of whether it’s from an investment adviser or a broker, according to the SEC official leading the agency’s study of fiduciary duty...
Ms. McHugh is in charge of the SEC group that is putting together a report for Congress on the differences in oversight of investment advisers and broker-dealers and whether regulatory gaps exist.

The study, due in January, is mandated by the Dodd-Frank financial-regulatory-reform legislation that was signed into law in July. During the 30-day public comment period on the standard of care requirements, the agency received 2,700 comments on the controversial topic, in addition to hundreds of form letters.
.............

Currently, investment advisers must adhere to a fiduciary duty, which requires that they act in the best interest of their clients and disclose all material conflicts of interest. Broker-dealers operate under a suitability rule in which they are required to ensure that investments a client’s needs, timeline and risk appetite.

Groups representing brokers have expressed concern that a universal fiduciary duty would undermine the B-D business model, which is based on sales commissions, raising their costs and denying affordable investment help to middle-income clients. B-D advocates also assert that their industry is already subject to tough and consistent regulation by Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc., which examines their operations more often than the SEC reviews investment advisers.

INTERESTING READ, HOW FOXES ARE TO MANAGE THE HENHOUSES... MUCH MORE

[UpInArms]

29. Media coverage of Apple found to be overwhelmingly positive

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/09/27/media_coverage_of_apple_found_to_be_overwhelmingly_positive.html

Apple garners the most media headlines of any tech company, with the iPhone 4 and iPad launches among the biggest stories of the year, while coverage of the company is overwhelmingly positive, one study has found.

The Pew Research Center on Monday released the findings of a new study that analyzed tech journalism in 437 stories from a variety of sources that ran between June 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. The study found that Apple receives the most press in the mainstream media, representing 15.1 percent of all technology stories in the news.

Apple's presence in the news is ahead of its rival, Google, which came in second with 11.4 percent. The social networking site Twitter came in third, with 7 percent of coverage, while Facebook took 4.8 percent, and Microsoft gathered 3 percent.

Of the stories analyzed, 42 percent described Apple has "innovative and superior," while another 27 percent praised the company's loyal fans. For comparison, only 20 percent of stories about Google portrayed the search giant as having innovative and superior products.

...more...

[Demeter]

30. Fed Mulls New Bond Approach

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703694204575518222145769804.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

Rather than announce massive bond purchases with a finite end, as they did in 2009 to shock the U.S. financial system back to life, Fed officials are weighing a more open-ended, smaller-scale program that they could adjust as the recovery unfolds.

The Fed hasn't yet committed to stepping up its bond purchases, and members haven't settled on an approach. After its meeting last week, the Fed's policy committee said it was "prepared" to take new steps if needed.

A decision on whether to buy more bonds depends on incoming data about economic growth and inflation; if the economy picks up steam, officials might decide no action is needed.

The Fed's internal debate about a bond-buying strategy is emblematic of the challenging position in which it finds itself. In normal times, it simply raises or lowers short-term interest rates to guide the economy....

WELCOME TO THE NEW NORMAL

[Demeter]

37. The New American Normal By ROGER COHEN

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/28/opinion/28iht-edcohen.html

The “animal spirits” of which Keynes spoke are on the prowl across the United States. Their mood is ugly. The spirits are wary and troubled. Corporations and individuals are hoarding cash, when they have any, because they’re not buying into the recovery.

On a weeklong visit, I found a mood of deep unease in an America that seems to have descended into tribalism — not ethnic, but political, economic and social. Uncertainty is pervasive. The government’s rescue of Wall Street combined with the acute difficulties of a middle class struggling to get by on stagnant or falling incomes has sharpened resentments.

This is not a momentary phenomenon. Nobody seems to think unemployment is going to fall significantly from 9.6 percent — a level more often associated with France — in the near future. Get used to the new normal.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Fragmentation holds sway. The stock market used to be a fair proxy for the state of the economy. Now it’s a market of traders, not investors. They want to know what the spread is today and tomorrow; they can make money on the way up or down; they care far less about U.S.A. Inc....Arriving from the U.K., it was the uncertainty that was most striking. That’s about the worst thing for an economy. As one Chicago executive put it to me, people who are creative rise above a consistently applied set of rules. Opacity kills.

[Demeter]

31. FDIC postpones rule to dismantle failing big bank

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-postpones-rule-to-dismantle-failing-big-bank-2010-09-27

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Monday postponed approving a rule that would dismantle a failing Lehman-like mega-bank in a way so its collapse doesn’t cause collateral damage to the markets. The agency had expected to adopt a rule setting up the mechanism, which is based on the Dodd-Frank Act, but decided instead to discuss a proposal on the subject with the goal of introducing it in the coming weeks.

The agency also on Monday approved a rule requiring depository institutions to share some of the risk when issuing packaged mortgage securities. The agency is requiring that banks hold at least 5% of the credit risk of securities they package and sell unless adequate underwriting standards are in place.
Elections, taxes and the markets

The agency expects to discuss their preliminary proposal to dismantle a failing mega-bank with a newly formed Financial Stability Oversight Council before approving it. The agency will also introduce a second proposal on the subject in the first quarter of 2011, which could include measures to identify how taxpayer funds used in the process will be recouped from the financial industry. FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair said there are some “important issues” that must be clarified such as how the agency will treat “similarly situated creditors” when dismantling a mega-bank.

The Dodd-Frank Act would permit the Treasury to use taxpayer funds to make pay-outs to creditors and counter-parties of a failing mega-bank so they don’t fail as well, causing a ripple effect to the economy. In addition to charging financial institutions a fee to recoup taxpayer funds, the dismantling mechanism would also sell assets of the failing mega-bank that would be used to cover costs to taxpayers.

MORE--MUST READ

[DemReadingDU]

35. Is a mega-bank getting ready to fail?

[Demeter]

40. No Idea

It's not like they'd tell you or me anything....

[Po_d Mainiac]

47. Think what happens If they all have to repurchase the fraudulent MBS's they sold n/t

[Po_d Mainiac]

48. The Deindustrialization Of America

19 Facts About The Deindustrialization Of America That Will Blow Your Mind

#1 The United States has lost approximately 42,400 factories since 2001. About 75 percent of those factories employed over 500 people when they were still in operation.
#4 In 2008, 1.2 billion cellphones were sold worldwide. So how many of them were manufactured inside the United States? Zero.
#7 The United States has lost a total of about 5.5 million manufacturing jobs since October 2000.
#8 According to Tax Notes, between 1999 and 2008 employment at the foreign affiliates of U.S. parent companies increased an astounding 30 percent to 10.1 million. During that exact same time period, U.S. employment at American multinational corporations declined 8 percent to 21.1 million.
#15 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.
#17 The United States spends approximately $3.90 on Chinese goods for every $1 that the Chinese spend on goods from the United States.

more porn at link:grr:
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/19-facts-about-the-deindustrialization-of-america-that-will-blow-your-mind

[Tansy_Gold]

54. +10,000 at least. n/t

[Demeter]

59. Believe! It's Happening

Fannie and Freddie are pissed!

[Po_d Mainiac]

65. They might be pissed, But

The the RTF's that bought the shit are getting desperate.

IMHO, A class action by State AG's stands a better chance of getting results
YMMV

[DemReadingDU]

36. FDIC Board Proposes Rules on Temporary Unlimited Deposit Insurance Coverage

9/27/10 FDIC Board Proposes Rules on Temporary Unlimited Deposit Insurance Coverage for Noninterest- Bearing Transaction Accounts

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Board of Directors today approved the issuance of a proposed rule to implement provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act to provide depositors at all FDIC-insured institutions unlimited deposit insurance coverage on noninterest-bearing transaction accounts beginning December 31, 2010 through December 31, 2012.

"In October 2008, the FDIC instituted a program providing unlimited protection for noninterest- bearing transaction accounts at participating banks and found it to be highly successful in providing stability at those institutions during one of the most severe economic downturns in our history," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair. "The Dodd-Frank provision is different from the FDIC's program but continues the purpose of that program as we emerge from the economic crisis."

Under the proposal, the FDIC will create a new, temporary deposit insurance category for noninterest-bearing transaction accounts. These accounts are primarily checking accounts used by businesses for payrolls, accounts payable and other purposes.

more...
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2010/pr10217.html


I think the FDIC is trying to tell us that we should leave our money in the banks, the banks will keep your money safe.
:eyes:

[Demeter]

41. Our Condo Asssociation Has Been Using this Program Already

Since a condo association, unlike a co-op has to pay tax on any interest earned, it didn't seem to be a great loss....

[Demeter]

63. FDIC to Explain How It Will Wield `Too Big to Fail' Power on Wall Street

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-27/fdic-to-explain-how-it-will-wield-too-big-to-fail-power-on-wall-street.html

The U.S. overhaul of Wall Street gave regulators a power they had called for since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.: the authority to shut too-big- to-fail firms. Now the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has to figure out how to use it.

The FDIC, assigned the task of determining how to unwind systemically important, failing firms while avoiding the market turmoil that followed Lehman, will begin explaining plans for the new resolution authority at a meeting in Washington today.

The FDIC, which has protected customer deposits as receiver for failed banks since the 1930s, finds itself in new territory by dealing with the sprawling firms populating Wall Street. The Dodd-Frank law lets the FDIC determine which parts of a failing firm should be kept on life support to stabilize the system and maintain the value of the business line for future sale. It also requires the agency to dismantle and sell off firms it takes over -- a measure designed to eliminate the uncertainty and ad hoc bailouts that came to define the 2008 crisis.

With the new authority, the FDIC “moves into something like Lehman that is a big complicated beast with a lot of arms and legs and heads,” said Mark McDermott, a partner at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom in New York.

[Demeter]

32. Dividend Deals Most Since 2007 as Leveraged Loans Heat Up

MORE AND MORE, BORROWING FROM PETER TO PAY PAUL DIVIDENDS...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-28/dividend-deals-most-since-2007-as-leveraged-loans-heat-up-credit-markets.html

Speculative-grade companies are borrowing to finance dividend payments to their private-equity owners at the fastest rate since before the credit crisis, taking advantage of investor demand for high relative yields.

Banks arranged or started marketing $8.77 billion of high- risk, high-yield loans slated for shareholder payouts this quarter, bringing 2010’s total to $17.1 billion, more than five times the amount of the past two years combined, according to Standard & Poor’s Leveraged Commentary and Data.

Private-equity firms, facing a jump in taxes on capital gains next year and a slumping market for initial public offerings, are saddling their companies with more debt as the U.S. economic recovery slows. Last week, landscaping company Brickman Group Holdings Inc., which is owned by Los Angeles- based Leonard Green & Partners LP, started raising $550 million of loans to refinance debt and pay a dividend.

“We’re going to see record-breaking transactions as the fourth quarter rolls in,” said Robert Willens, president of Robert Willens LLC, who previously was a managing director in charge of tax and accounting analysis at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. “Companies are in the process of setting up dividend programs now so that they can get them implemented by the end of the year.”

[Demeter]

33. SOUTH AFRICA: $4bn offered BY WALMART to buy Massmart

http://www.africanews.com/site/SA_4bn_offered_to_buy_Massmart/list_messages/34900

The world's largest retailer has been hit by weakness in the United States, where low-income shoppers are particularly vulnerable to unemployment and higher petrol prices. It has responded by focusing on cost cuts and international growth.

According to Reuters, buying Massmart would give Wal-Mart a considerable network in Africa's biggest economy and a foothold in 13 other countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Home to some of the world's fastest growing markets, Africa also boasts an emerging middle class and roughly 1 billion consumers, making it an increasingly attractive target for overseas investors...

[Demeter]

34. Mantega Says Brazil to Buy `Excess Dollars' Amid Worldwide `Currency War'

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-27/mantega-says-brazil-to-buy-all-excess-dollars-in-bid-to-curb-real-s-gain.html

Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said the government will buy all “excess dollars” in the market to curb the real’s appreciation as governments around the world engage in a “currency war.”

Brazil won’t allow the real to appreciate excessively as other countries weaken their currencies to gain market share for exporters, Mantega said today at an event in Sao Paulo.

“We are experiencing a currency war,” Mantega said. “Devaluing currencies artificially is a global strategy.”

The real has gained 35 percent against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of 2009, making Brazilian exports more expensive in dollar terms and cutting into profits for exporters. The comments today echo those Mantega made Sept. 15, when he pledged that Brazil is “not going to lose this game.”

[Demeter]

38. DOJ Refuses to Revoke BP's Probation Over Safety Violations at Texas City Refinery

http://www.truth-out.org/exclusive-doj-refuses-revoke-bps-probation-over-safety-violations-texas-city-refinery63613

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has refused to pursue a probation revocation case against BP after the company was found to have violated a federal judge's March 2009 felony judgment, which required BP to fulfill the terms of a settlement agreement it entered into with government regulators five years ago to make certain safety upgrades at its Texas City refinery by September 2009, according to documents obtained by Truthout.

Instead, the DOJ will allow BP to spend two additional years to correct hundreds of safety problems that have plagued the refinery - the third-largest in the country - for a decade and have played a part in the deaths of 19 people over the past five years.

On March 23, 2005, 15 people were killed and 170 others were maimed and seriously injured in an explosion at the plant, which occurred "during the startup of the refinery’s octane-boosting isomerization (ISOM) unit, when a distillation tower and attached blowdown drum were overfilled with highly flammable liquid hydrocarbons."

"Because the blowdown drum vented directly to the atmosphere, there was a geyser-like release of highly flammable liquid and vapor onto the grounds of the refinery," according to a two-year investigation conducted by the independent US Chemical Safety Board (CSB). "A diesel pickup truck that was idling nearby ignited the vapor, initiating a series of explosions and fires that swept through the unit and the surrounding area. Fatalities and injuries occurred in and around occupied work trailers, which were placed too close to the ISOM unit and which were not evacuated prior to the startup."

[Demeter]

39. Jobs Summit Charade: Is the government out of money, or is Obama completely misguided?

FROM 2009

http://www.newdeal20.org/2009/12/04/jobs-summit-charade-is-the-government-out-of-money-or-is-obama-completely-misguided-6825/

The government of the largest economy has run short of money. At least that is what Mr. Obama sought to convey at his “jobs summit” yesterday. The President said he would entertain “every demonstrably good idea” for creating jobs, but he cautioned that “our resources are limited.”

What a confidence-inspiring notion. How can we possibly solve the problem of unemployment in these circumstances? The preposterousness of the statement is only matched by the paucity of economic understanding that it manifests.

For the millionth time, Mr. President, a government which issues its own sovereign currency cannot go broke. It cannot “run out of dollars”.

Does any other entity in the world issue US dollars? No. The national government does this under monopoly conditions. If you or I tried to do it, we would go to jail for counterfeiting. The government money monopoly was invented to mobilize resources to serve what government perceived to be the public purpose. Of course, it is only in a democracy that the public’s purpose and the government’s purpose have much chance of alignment, but this presupposes at least a working understanding of how a modern monetary system operates....

A RIGHTEOUS RANT

[DemReadingDU]

42. Shut Down the Fed (Part II)

9/27/10 Shut Down the Fed (Part II) By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

I apologise to readers around the world for having defended the emergency stimulus policies of the US Federal Reserve, and for arguing like an imbecile naif that the Fed would not succumb to drug addiction, political abuse, and mad intoxicated debauchery, once it began taking its first shots of quantitative easing.

My pathetic assumption was that Ben Bernanke would deploy further QE only to stave off DEFLATION, not to create INFLATION. If the Federal Open Market Committee cannot see the difference, God help America.

We now learn from last week’s minutes that the Fed is willing “to provide additional accommodation if needed to … return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.”

NO, NO, NO, this cannot possibly be true.

Ben Bernanke has not only refused to abandon his idee fixe of an “inflation target”, a key cause of the global central banking catastrophe of the last twenty years (because it can and did allow asset booms to run amok, and let credit levels reach dangerous extremes).

Worse still, he seems determined to print trillions of emergency stimulus without commensurate emergency justification to test his Princeton theories, which by the way are as old as the hills. Keynes ridiculed the “tyranny of the general price level” in the early 1930s, and quite rightly so. Bernanke is reviving a doctrine that was already shown to be bunk eighty years ago.
.
.
Sooner or later we may learn what the Fed’s hawkish bloc of Fisher, Lacker, Plosser, Hoenig, Warsh, and Kocherlakota really think about this latest lurch into monetary la la land, with all that it implies for moral hazard and debt contracts.

If I have written harsh words about these heroic resisters, I apologise for that too.

more...
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100007777/shut-down-the-fed-part-ii/#dsq-content


Edit: This may be Part I

6/29/10 Time to shut down the US Federal Reserve? Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100006729/time-to-shut-down-the-us-federal-reserve/

[DemReadingDU]

45. Denninger: And Another One Realizes He Was Wrong

9/28/10 And Another One Realizes He Was Wrong by Karl Denninger

"I'm impressed.

It is not often that one finds someone who is a mainstream commentator who is willing to say, up front, that they were wrong - and apologize."

lots more...
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167687

[Tansy_Gold]

53. "Ben has an empty bazooka"

From the comments section.

:rofl:



TG, NTY

[Demeter]

60. Only his doctor knows for sure

[Dr.Phool]

68. Know what?

[Ghost Dog]

73. Stealth default.

Are the Chinese right? Are the Americans and the British now so decadent that they will refuse to take their punishment, opting to default on their debts by stealth?

[Demeter]

43. Audit finds flaws in US arms sales to Gulf

The US administration has concluded multibillion-dollar arms deals with Gulf states without establishing whether they were in the national interest, according to a congressional investigators’ report seen by the Financial Times

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/YIQXNN/8ARXOE/NRHD3/WLW17V/TP6E7A/LE/t?a1=2010&a2=9&a3=28

WHAT'S GOOD FOR GENERAL ARMAMENTS MUST BE GOOD FOR THE USA!

[Demeter]

44. Ireland seeks ways to stem rising debt

Challenge for coalition government is to avoid a popular backlash from ordinary workers, struggling to cope with ‘the age of austerity’ while their taxes bail out banks and the bondholders

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/YIQXNN/8ARXOE/NRHD3/WLW17V/1873YY/LE/t?a1=2010&a2=9&a3=28

[Demeter]

46. US Treasury stumbles selling Citi shares

The US government is in danger of missing its deadline of divesting all of its Citigroup shares by the year-end after a fall in stock market trading volumes prompted authorities to slow down sales in July and August


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/QM42II/A7NX8C/9MEOW/NS0E1T/BMEGU2/82/t?a1=2010&a2=9&a3=27


I THINK THIS IS THE REASON FOR ALL THE PUMPING AND DUMPING THIS YEAR...

[Demeter]

56. Foreign profits of U.S. firms could help at home, economists say

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/24/AR2010092406183.html

As policymakers desperately search for ways to give the sputtering economy a jolt without deepening the nation's budget deficit, some economists say an answer lies with the more than $1 trillion in U.S. corporate profits that reside overseas.

Advocates of repatriating that money say it could finance hundreds of thousands of new jobs, research and development and other investment that could lift the economy from the doldrums.


THEY REALLY THINK WE ARE IDIOTS

THIS IS A MUST-READ

[Demeter]

62. France Wants G-20 to Limit `Monetary Disorder,' Speculation on Commodities

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-26/france-wants-g-20-to-limit-monetary-disorder-speculation-on-commodities.html

...“When the euro’s value compared to the dollar is as volatile as it is, this isn’t good for manufacturers, and in particular for exporters,” Lagarde said in an interview on Europe 1 radio today. France, which takes up the G-20 leadership in November, has a goal “to try to stop monetary disorder,” she said.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy last month repeated a push to overhaul the global monetary system, calling for discussions on currencies to be open to countries beyond the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, including China, and enhanced coordination and global governance. The euro slid to its lowest level versus the dollar since March 2006 in June, and has since rebounded 14 percent.

Sarkozy’s goals for the G-20 French presidency also include tackling “speculation” on commodities, especially on agricultural prices, and fostering global governance through “better coordination” among institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Labour Organization, Lagarde said today...

[Demeter]

64. Walking away with less

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/25/AR2010092503767.html

A new wave of distressed home sales is rippling, more quietly this time, through American cities and suburbs...The last time, banks seized nearly every fourth house on the street through foreclosure. This time, homeowners are going another route: a short sale.

The original owner bought the home for $400,714 in 2006; Harris and her husband, both bartenders, paid what seemed to be a bargain price, $289,000, in 2008. But they have fallen behind on their mortgage payments, in part because her husband was out of work. Now they have a $246,000 offer for the home, and the balance on their mortgage is more than that. They want to accept the offer. All they need is their bank's okay.

That kind of deal is called a short sale, and it's sweeping the country. In these deals, a lender allows a troubled borrower to sell a home for less than what's owed on the mortgage.

Completed short sales have more than tripled since 2008, and 400,000 of these deals are projected to close this year, according to mortgage research firm CoreLogic. The giant mortgage financier Fannie Mae approved short sales on 36,534 home loans it owned in the first half of the year, nearly triple the number in 2007 and 2008 combined. Freddie Mac, its sister company, approved 22,117 in the first half of 2010, up from a mere 94 in the first half of 2007...

[Po_d Mainiac]

71. Short sales may increase with even lower prices

because the owner actually signs off.

Shorts get around that little problem of failing to be able to produce "wet ink" documents required for a 'lawful' foreclosure.
:popcorn:

[Po_d Mainiac]

66. Pay attention to the FX

The U$D is again being crushed...

The JPY is within 7/10ths of a penny from where it was when the BoJ went on their shopping spree.

At some point a CB is going to call the FED's bluff. This will happen if the US is no longer looked at as being capable of driving the world's economy by being the top consumer.

Bumhanky is building a very strong case for replacing the U$D as the petro-buck.

All the $ devaluation in the world cannot offset the increased cost of production if we can't control oil prices.
Think of it as the CoL going through the roof, as wages continue to deflate...But at a much faster rate:tinfoilhat:

[Papa Boule]

70. Petro bucks. I prefer "oilies."

"In sweet crude, payable to the bearer on demand."

[Po_d Mainiac]

72. Brilliant!

Unless it becomes the "goilie" ....ya know, payable in gold or crude :shrug: