Poll: Conn. governor's race now a dead heat

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: Associated Press

HARTFORD, Conn.—A new poll says Republican Tom Foley has erased Democrat Dan Malloy's lead in the Connecticut governor's race.

The Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Malloy leading Foley 45 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, but that's within the survey's sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Malloy, the former mayor of Stamford, had led Foley, the former U.S. ambassador to Ireland, 50 percent to 41 percent in a Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago.

Quinnipiac poll director Douglas Schwartz says the race is now tight because of a shift among independent voters toward Foley. And 60 percent of likely voters surveyed who said they were angry with state government supported Foley.

Read more: http://www.boston.com/news/local/connecticut/articles/2010/09/29/poll_conn_governors_race_now_a_dead_heat/

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Although CT is blue state, it has not elected a Democrat as Governor in 24 years.

[still_one]

1. That is what we have been told, however with dodd and lieberman, one has to wonder how progressive

connecticut really is

[bluestateguy]

2. No more polls

nt

[Freddie Stubbs]

3. If you want to keep your head in the sand, perhaps you should take a break from DU for 34 days

[karynnj]

4. I hate to argue that a negative poll can just be poorly done,

but, it does seem that there may be fundamental problems. It seems unlikely that the Senate and the Governor race would BOTH SIMULTANEOUSLY shift dramatically - without some major event that affected both. I really wonder if the likely voter screen is too aggressively eliminating Democrats that other polls retained.

At any rate, it would be good to wait to see what newer polls will say before giving it a lot of credence.

(Quinipac did very badly in NJ in 2004, 2005, and 2006 - showing the Democrat vulnerable when other polls didn't - I don't remember how they did in later years.)

[Dawson Leery]

5. Q-Polls are nortorious for their innaccuracy.

Not only did they get the NJ wrong, they got PA wrong in 2000/2004.
They had Lamont winning the Governors primary over Malloy (Malloy won by 16 points while Q had Lamont up by 9).
I am highly suspect of Q-polls.

[karynnj]

6. Good to hear

I thought they had blown other races, but stuck to writing only those I knew for 100% sure. The CT DEM primary is a huge miss.

[Dawson Leery]

7. Every poll showed a sudden late surge for Malloy except Quinnpiac.

Also, Quinnipiac is assuming that turnout will for Democrats will be worse than it was in 1994. That is not going to happen.

[mvd]

8. AP would not mention sampling error if the Democrat was catching up

AP is such a propaganda arm anymore.