Two new polls show Brown ahead of Whitman in governor's race

[t0dd]

Source: Mercury News

Two new polls Monday showed Democrat Jerry Brown leading Republican Meg Whitman in the race for governor, but the modest point spread indicates it will likely remain a tight contest to the finish.

The Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls were the first taken since celebrity Los Angeles attorney Gloria Allred revealed last week that Whitman had employed an illegal immigrant housekeeper for nine years -- a story that has dominated the campaign ever since.

The Rasmussen poll of 750 likely California voters showed that 49 percent favored Brown, while 44 percent favored Whitman.

In a similar survey two weeks ago, Rasmussen found the two candidates in a statistical dead heat -- Brown at 47 percent, Whitman at 46 percent.

The latest Rasmussen poll is still within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. But Rasmussen felt confident enough that the numbers had turned in Brown's favor that it reclassified the governor's race from "toss-up'' to "leans Democratic.''

SurveyUSA on Monday said its latest poll had showed Brown receiving the support of 47 percent of likely voters, compared with 43 percent for Whitman. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.




Read more: http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_16250063

[mucifer]

1. amazing that it still is that close.

[robinlynne]

3. It isn't according to the news tonight on tv...

[K8-EEE]

4. I don't think it is

IMO you can add 4 or 5 points to any of these polls.

[pnwmom]

12. The article incorrectly states that the results are within the margin of error.

They are not. Brown is ahead by 5 points, and the margin of error is 4 points.

Strange that the reporter should make such a gross mistake.

[cosmicone]

14. Check your math please ....

Brown is 49% and MOE is 4% so Brown could be 45%-53%
Nutmeg is 45% and could be 41-49%

Brown's lowest number has to be above Nutmeg's highest number for it to be outside the MOE.

[pnwmom]

15. It depends on how the polling company states its margin of error.

You are correct if the number stated applies to each result rather than to a comparison of the results. But that's not how all companies report their margin of error.

[opihimoimoi]

2. Supposed to be 76 Brown.....24 Witless

[autorank]

5. It's a month to the finish k*r

Good news. But Whitman has stumbled badly. Talked to my cousin in California who explained about how people are turned off by Whitman's gross overspending and also the undocumented worker that she fired when she decided to run for Governor. That is filtering through the system out there. People are smart and they know a creepy character when it is put on display. She's repellant. I bet Brown takes it 58%-40%. Whitman hs a few more stumbles likely and she's a nasty presence.

[Liberty Belle]

6. See just how poorly Whitman performed in the 2nd debate here:

http://www.eastcountymagazine.org/node/4408

Tough to imagine any Latinos or anyone who isn't a corporate fat cat voting for her after watching this. She came across as cold and heartless in my view. Please forward to California voters.

Did you know the 3rd debate has been cancelled?

Guess this debate stuff didn't work out so well for her, so she's going back to scripted appearances and buying up TV ad space.

[Brother Buzz]

9. She still has the Marin county debate to contend with

The Columbus day debate at Dominican college is still on. It's hosted by Dominican, and sponsored by NBC. Tom Brokaw will be the moderator. She would serve up on a silver platter if she balked.

[SoapBox]

7. Go Jerry Go...

I got my mail in ballot today...already marked Jerry.

[Frances]

10. Haven't gotten mine yet.

Can't wait to vote against Meg.

Brown will inherit a HUGE mess.

[Barbara2423]

8. Whitman is doing better than expected,

Meg looks and acts like Chuckie the Doll. Which I could copy an image here.

[pnwmom]

11. Brown 49, Whitman 44 means the results are NOT within the 4% margin of error.

Despite what the article says.

Go, Brown!!!

[karynnj]

16. The article is right

Both numbers are plus or minus 4, so Brown can be as low as 45 and Whitman as high as 48, so there are points within the confidence intervals where she is ahead.

[David Zephyr]

13. Go Jerry! Make Meg keep pouring money into California's economy.

Jerry rules.