Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races, Lengthening G.O.P. Takeover Odds (Nate Silver)

[onehandle]

Source: New York Times

After having lost ground in the Senate forecast for three consecutive weeks, Democrats have demonstrated improved polling in several key matchups over the past week, dimming Republican hopes for taking over the chamber.

The FiveThirtyEight model now gives Republicans an 18 percent chance of claiming control of the Senate after the Nov. 2 elections — down from 24 percent last week. The projected composition of the Senate has also changed slightly: more than 100,000 simulation runs of the forecast model show the Democrats finishing with an average of 52.0 senators, up from 51.5 last week, and Republicans with 47.9 senators, down from 48.4 last week.

It would be dubious to assert that Democrats have some “momentum” at the national level — pollsters have released surveys in dozens of matchups for the U.S. House this week, for instance, and they continue to be broadly in line with large (potentially very large) Democratic losses in that chamber.

Control of the Senate, however, will boil down to a relatively small number of races — possibly not more than a half-dozen. And in several of those races, Democrats have made small, but important, gains.

Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/13/democratic-polling-improves-in-key-senate-races-lengthening-g-o-p-takeover-odds

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The House, not so much.

[catbyte]

1. Nate Silver didn't sound too good on the Today Show this morning

He's still predicting a Republican "Hurricane", much to my disgust and alarm.

[pattmarty]

2. Nate Silver and Charlie Cook are two of the best at this. If they say............

..............it, believe it. It may be not what you want to hear, but they BOTH are correct more often than not.

[elleng]

4. I agree, so I've avoided reading lately, but for this positive headline!

[creon]

3. Congress and the WH

Congress and the WH did not do what needed to be done. They fussed and fumed and dithered.

And failed to pass safe and effective legislation. Congress and the WH are responsible for that. I think that it was due to: the inablility of Democrats to work together; a lack of urgency; a lack of political intelligence.

There was little time. That should have been known. The voters will punish you for that.

Grid lock; I expect a nasty variant of gridlock.

[apnu]

5. Spot on.

Democrats in Congress and the White House have only themselves to blame. The country wanted change and we got the same old nonsense. Dithering, hand wringing, "compromises" with the Republicans, and importantly, as you pointed out, stupidity.

Its obvious to me that the country still wants change. Liberals, progressives and the young are sitting on the sidelines because they're disappointed with the current government, and the Republicans are storming back as the only viable "change" from the status quo.

We needed big, bold leadership. We needed Obama and the dems to stuff the GOP at every turn, lord knows, they were asking for it and failing all over the place in 2009. That was the time to drive in the killing stroke, but instead the Dems backed off and bickered.

Current members of the House and Senate and the White House have only themselves to blame here. And the rest of the country will suffer for that.

Its ironic, that Republican incompetence is what put the Democrats in power, and it will be Democratic incompetence that will put the Republicans on equal footing, and possibly, in control of Congress.

Its like the stupid is just being passed around like a joint.

[n2doc]

6. They failed to give themselves something to run on

Bank bailouts, health care reform where the benefits didn't (mostly) kick in until 2014, a too-small stimulus plan again insufficiently designed to give people tangible results now (instead it barely held the floodgates back, which is fine but not something you can point to easily),and nearly worthless foreclosure modification plans. No significant changes in war, in the fearmongering, in rights,reform, etc. They gave themselves precious little to be proud of. And it shows in the campaigns.

[pattmarty]

10. Don't ask, don't tell and the BP fiasco are a couple more............

............I am now calling this admin (ONLY two years in) WORSE than Clinton's. The ONLY difference now between the Republicans and the Dems is the Dems will throw some CRUMBS to the middle class and working class. Both parties tell the poor to fuck off. The last true liberal President was LBJ 40 fucking years ago. Unless we can get elected someone like Sanders, Franken, Kucinich or maybe Grayson we have NO FUCKING chance. Even with a "true" liberal as Prez, I still think the country is too far gone. We have become a 21st century fascist state.

[AndyTiedye]

8. The Repiglickins (and "Blue Dog" pretend-Democrats) Blocked Us At Every Turn

The Republican strategy is to be the "Party of No", and to have their friends in the media blame the Democrats instead of the Republicans for the lack of progress. Such a strategy works great for them because they control the media.
They have even convinced most people here on DU that it's all "the Democrats'" fault. The Senators who voted with the Republicans to sustain all those filibusters are Democrats in name only — not even that in the case of Lieberman.

To make matters worse, the Citizens United ruling has given the Republicans access to unlimited corporate cash, including foreign cash. In 2008, we raised more money than they did. That will never happen again.

We do not have a working majority in Congress, and we haven't had in decades. The only way we get a majority on paper is by luring a lot of slightly-less-conservative Republicans into our party. They still vote with the Republicans most of the time though.

People get fed the Repiglickin point of view every day on every television station in the country, and nearly every radio station and newspaper. This has been going on for so long that most people never get to hear our side of the story.

[apnu]

12. True, but that's where the dithering and hand wringing and "compromising" comes into it.

Sure the opposition and weak Dems blocked it, but the rest of the party sat by and said "ho-hum" to it all. Instead, they should have hammered those losers at every turn -- Obama, Reid and Pelosi didn't do that until it was too late. They dithered and played footsie with an opposition block that had zero interest in any meaningful legislation or anything else for that matter.

I wanted the Democrats to play hardball with these clowns, and had they done that, there would be no enthusiasm gap. That isn't the fault of the GOP or the blue-dogs. All I ask was that they fight for what's right, not water down what's right in the spirit of bi-partisanship. You can't have bi-partisanship with the GOP right now.

[creon]

9. yes

They do not have a clue. If you told them what to do, they would just nod their head "yes" and carry on with their fatuous dithering. You are right -- the Democrats have only themselves to blame.

Republican partisans and those who vote GOP will learn that a Republican Congress is just as stupid in its' own way as a Democratic one.


The country continues to languish.

[Wednesdays]

7. See ya guys Nov. 3

:hi:

[apnu]

11. I love that pic! (nt)

[The Stranger]

14. They were fighting a Perfect Storm of AM Radio, Fox News and Voter Anger.

The problem is in the media.

The corporate media is pro-Republican 24/7.

Something must be done about that or there will never be any change.

[JerseygirlCT]

13. Then after the elections, can we please get rid of Harry Reid and get

a majority leader who's interested in leading?

[mvd]

15. K&R

I don't have much money, but I'll still do my part and contribute to Sestak.