STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday October 26

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday October 26, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 25, 2010

Dow 11,164.05 +31.49 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,490.85 +11.46 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,185.62 +2.54 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.58 +0.01 (+0.51%)
30-Year Bond 3.94 +0.02 (+0.56%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Aug
Briefing.com 2.0%
Consensus 2.1%
Prior 3.18%

10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct
Briefing.com 48.0
Consensus 49.0
Prior 48.5

10:00 FHFA Home Price Index Aug
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -0.5%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls to near $82 before US crude supply data

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slipped to near $82 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders looked to the latest U.S. crude supply reports for clues about the strength of consumer demand for fuel.

Crude inventories likely rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. The American Petroleum Institute plans to announce its inventory numbers later Tuesday while the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports its weekly supply data Wednesday.

In other Nymex trading in November contracts, heating oil fell 0.74 cent to $2.247 a gallon and gasoline dropped 0.93 cent to $2.068 a gallon. Natural gas gained 1.2 cents to $3.329 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Fed throws its weight into foreclosure probe

Major banks are already under investigation by state officials with subpoena power, who could force them to detail how they handled hundreds of thousands of foreclosure cases.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke added weight to those efforts Monday by saying the central bank would look "intensively" at policies and procedures that might have allowed banks to seize homes improperly.

The Fed has the power to impose penalties on some of the nation's largest banks. Still, most legal experts expect an investigation by attorneys general in all 50 states to have a swifter and more lasting impact.

And here is the essence of the banks' defense:

While the banks say there's little if any evidence that any foreclosures were improper, regulators around the country have suggested the banks were in a rush to foreclose and may have committed outright fraud.

"Little if any..." Somebody is not paying attention.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101026/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosures

[Demeter]

9. So, Uncle Ben's Gonna "Fix" It? Do Tell

we're so freaking doomed.

[Po_d Mainiac]

12. It's called a smokescreen

Can't have attention focused on the thought of all the MBS's getting dumped back onto the originators, and the massive write-downs that would follow.

And the FED is sitting on how much of this shit marked to myth?

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. Prof. Black & The Foreclosure Nurse..Black calls for firings!! (Video)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/39836703#39836703

[InkAddict]

24. Isn't it quite obvious that noone was intimidated re: the

consequences of NOT following banking/financial regulations and policies. Somewhere along the line, one of them stuck his thumbs in the ears and started waving those hands and fingers while saying - na-na/nananna - you won't get me/us.....and the rest did likewise while shoveling the money into their bonus algorhythms. So, Ben thinks the polices and regs were BAD??? He's out of his mind as usual.

A few, heck, a lot more, need to sit awhile in our prisons and have very little funds awaiting to re-start their disingenuous lives upon their release - nothing else will make an impact on these hoodlums.

[ozymandius]

4. Treasury too rosy on bailout cost: TARP cop

In its quarterly report to Congress, the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program said the Treasury Department's bailout cost estimate for American International Group was an example of using misleading numbers to paint a positive pre-election account of the program.

The administration on September 30 slashed its estimate of the overall cost of the U.S. financial bailout by more than half to less than $50 billion on the back of a new plan to sell the government's stake in insurer AIG.

The SIGTARP report said the Treasury Department, in coming up with the fresh estimate, had changed its calculation method to estimate a $5 billion cost for AIG. That was a shift from an earlier projection of $45 billion that used a broader measure to calculate the cost.

At issue: methodology in calculating profit-loss...

The Treasury failed to make clear it had changed its calculation method and that it was relying solely on recent stock market prices for AIG shares in making the new estimate, the SIGTARP report said. It concluded that Treasury needed more transparency in its public disclosures about TARP costs.

Maybe Larry Summers supplied the math.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101025/pl_nm/us_usa_economy_tarp

[ozymandius]

5. Shrinking Bank Revenue Signals Dawn of ‘Worst’ Decade of Growth

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Next year will kick off a decade that will bring the “worst revenue growth” for U.S. banks in 80 years, according to Mike Mayo, a banking analyst at Credit Agricole Securities USA Inc. in New York. Net revenue at U.S. commercial lenders has expanded at a slower pace in each of the last three decades, falling to 6 percent in the last decade from 12 percent in the 1970s, according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data.

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, whose revenue fell 30 percent and 18 percent over the last two quarters, have been hampered by lower trading results. The two New York-based firms had the biggest drop of the six banks so far this year.

What is the reason for this dour forecast atop dismal earnings? A shrinking customer base:

“That five- or six-year period during the boom, that was just purchase activity created by credit,” said Christopher Whalen, a former Federal Reserve Bank of New York analyst and co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics in Torrance, California. “The ‘new normal’ terminology, the cliche we all hate, is absolutely true. When you’ve withdrawn all of this credit from the economy, you’re also taking a component of revenue out.”

The trend over the past thirty years has experienced a shrinking U.S. market. These same banks are looking to replace the exhausted domestic markets by recreating these former business models in overseas markets.

Link to Bloomberg story

[tclambert]

8. A shrinking U.S. market really comes from shrinking customer incomes.

Businesses keep thinking, "It's good to cut labor costs." That's from Econ 101. But that means shrinking middle class incomes, which equals customers with less money to spend.

A prosperous middle class with a rising standard of living is the real engine that drives our economy.

[ozymandius]

6. Krugman and El-Erian Agree: The Fed's QE2 Will Hurt, Not Help

It certainly will not fulfill its intended goals. Krugman and El-Erian meet at this point from two different logical paths. My inference of their respective points-of-view settle on the idea that natural markets for new debt do not exist. From Bloomberg:

Federal Reserve Treasury purchases will likely spur global inflation while failing to lower U.S. unemployment, according to Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. ...

“One thing that the Fed cannot do is stand still, it is terrified of deflation,” El-Erian said. “QE on its own means we’ll have the same issues in six to nine months time with the rest of the world being inflated.”

Estimates for the ultimate size of the asset-purchase program range from $1 trillion at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Global Research to $2 trillion at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., with economists at both firms agreeing the Fed will likely start by announcing $500 billion after the Nov. 2-3 meeting. The danger is that once the Fed kindles price increases, inflation will be difficult to control.

The Fed gambles that on the idea that spurring inflation will stimulate more spending from consumers. In sum: Prices are going up so you might as well spend now. Somehow, I feel the message is going to get lost in the translation from Fed speak to everyday language. The average person will notice price increases without understanding why.

As for Krugman: He says the bond market anticipates rising inflation. That is the reason for negative yield on inflation indexed Treasury notes:

Liquidity is now free, and as a result the market’s demand for liquidity is satiated; adding more potentially liquid assets makes no difference. So issuing short-term debt and printing monetary base are equivalent.

The built-in feature among T-notes that makes a negative yield palatable is the index to inflation. In the most fundamental terms - people park their money there to guard against the corrosive effects of inflation that QE2 will bring.

editing to add Bloomberg story link

[Po_d Mainiac]

10. huh?

The Treasury sold $10 billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative yield for the first time at a U.S. debt auction yesterday as investors bet the Fed will be successful in sparking inflation. The securities drew a yield of negative 0.55 percent.

Expectations of serious inflation (hyper?) bid negative yields on TIPS. I wonder if the buyers realize that BLS will the ones making that determination?

Rising costs for metals, food and oil show the Fed is avoiding deflation, Brynjolfsson, who is based in Aliso Viejo, California, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. Deflation is a general drop in prices. :wtf:

Rising food and oil prices indicate the U$D is quickly becoming crap..Crap currency, esp too much of it tends to make the stuff we need on a day-to-day basis more expensive.

IN REALITY, WE ALREADY HAVE INFLATION DETERIORATING THE STANDARDS OF LIVING FOR THOSE ON FIXED INCOMES, AND/OR LIVING PAYCHECK-TO-PAYCHECK :grr: And this will restore the RE markets HOW?

[Demeter]

19. How do the do that? Pay more than its maturity value?

[Po_d Mainiac]

28. They paid more that the "face" value

The assumption being that rising interest rates will offset the difference when the bond reaches maturity

[Dr.Phool]

11. I think Bernanke has it 100% ass backwards.

The stage is set for an absolute fiasco.

"The Fed gambles that on the idea that spurring inflation will stimulate more spending from consumers. In sum: Prices are going up so you might as well spend now."

People aren't spending, because they don't have any leftover money to spend. In case they forgot, there's nearly 10% "official" unemployment. Closer to 20% in real life. Homelessness, foreclosures, lower wages, rising food, insurance, and utility costs, not to mention gas prices.

I'm going to run right out and buy the newest i-nothing because it might be more expensive next week? Yeah, that's gonna work.

If anything, people are going to cut spending just to pay for food and other necessities that are rising in price, with their stagnating paychecks.

[Po_d Mainiac]

13. exactly! n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

16. Of course

They have forgotten virtually everything they learned (or taught) in Econ 101.

Without manufacturing jobs, there is no economy. If you "create" wealth by printing more money and then sending it to manufacturers in China and Madagascar, your economy will collapse.

We're seeing that in the econ lab that is the US of A right now.



TG

[Dr.Phool]

17. A couple of years ago, when I had my restaurant, and the economy started to tank.

My first instinct was to raise my prices. That'll show the ingrates who didn't appreciate a good deal on a pizza!

Our biggest lunch-delivery customer (Capitol One) moved to India. Chase relocated out of our area. Gas hit $4.00 a gallon, and customers were all telling me that they had just lost, or were losing their jobs. Yep, higher prices would have cured everything. Gotta create that sense of urgency.

I remember back in the late '60s and early '70s, there was an irrational fear that someone would spike a city's water supply with LSD. I'm thinking that somebody may have actually followed through.

[Po_d Mainiac]

20. You were a man before your time, but in the wrong business

Raising prices in a dead marketplace, is the exact model the Banksters are now employing!

[Festivito]

7. Debt: 10/22/2010 13,667,624,992,210.96 (DOWN 358,333,767.35) (Fri)

(Down little. Good day.)
Things went wrong and stayed long and today is to be windy.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,058,605,750,216.26 + 4,609,019,241,994.70
DOWN 39,023,333.21 + DOWN 319,310,434.14

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,220.23 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.66, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,536,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,012.87.
A family of three owes $132,038.62. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 8,933,219,177.03.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,551,027,396.49.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 266 reports in 387 days of FY2011 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.54B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 821 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.8 and 19.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/22/2010 13,667,624,992,210.96 BHO (UP 3,040,747,943,297.88 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,106,001,961,319.20 ------------* * BHO
Endof11 +27,404,764,545,168.20 ------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | per 1B Too much to predict at this time.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/01/2010 -005,585,417,177.51 --
10/04/2010 +000,259,208,393.70 ------------******** Mon
10/05/2010 +000,697,809,032.26 ------------********
10/06/2010 +000,102,633,566.23 ------------********
10/07/2010 -010,581,200,428.89 -
10/08/2010 -000,047,594,597.51 ----
10/12/2010 -002,308,905,840.19 -- Tue
10/13/2010 +004,079,531,881.58 ------------*********
10/14/2010 -003,450,466,367.69 --
10/15/2010 +053,297,374,376.50 ------------**********
10/18/2010 +000,841,690,317.23 ------------******** Mon
10/19/2010 +000,443,038,294.93 ------------********
10/20/2010 +001,330,613,152.94 ------------*********
10/21/2010 -003,241,964,507.19 --
10/22/2010 -000,039,023,333.21 ----

35,797,326,763.18 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4587665&mesg_id=4587685

[Festivito]

47. Debt: 10/25/2010 13,669,359,903,495.66 (UP 1,734,911,284.70) (Mon)

(Up little. Good day.)
Following an unexpected cleanup comes an emergency far away.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,058,663,206,824.61 + 4,610,696,696,671.05
UP 57,456,608.35 + UP 1,677,454,676.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,220.00 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.66, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,558,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,015.4.
A family of three owes $132,046.19. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 9,644,839,036.77.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,751,387,325.74.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,533,600,637.81.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 267 reports in 390 days of FY2011 averaging 6.59B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 818 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.8 and 19.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/25/2010 13,669,359,903,495.66 BHO (UP 3,042,482,854,582.58 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,107,736,872,603.90 ------------* * BHO
Endof11 +24,116,192,799,748.00 ------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | per 1B Too much to predict at this time.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/04/2010 +000,259,208,393.70 ------------******** Mon
10/05/2010 +000,697,809,032.26 ------------********
10/06/2010 +000,102,633,566.23 ------------********
10/07/2010 -010,581,200,428.89 -
10/08/2010 -000,047,594,597.51 ----
10/12/2010 -002,308,905,840.19 -- Tue
10/13/2010 +004,079,531,881.58 ------------*********
10/14/2010 -003,450,466,367.69 --
10/15/2010 +053,297,374,376.50 ------------**********
10/18/2010 +000,841,690,317.23 ------------******** Mon
10/19/2010 +000,443,038,294.93 ------------********
10/20/2010 +001,330,613,152.94 ------------*********
10/21/2010 -003,241,964,507.19 --
10/22/2010 -000,039,023,333.21 ----
10/25/2010 +000,057,456,608.35 ------------******* Mon

41,440,200,549.04 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4588778&mesg_id=4588823

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Demeter]

21. Peace at last!

[Po_d Mainiac]

41. Flat close with the U$D ticking up.....nevah thunked I'd see the day.

Most commodities mixed other than Oil & "Grains and Oilseeds" which were up across the board...(yup the daily use stuff)

A very odd day indeed

[TheWatcher]

42. With 70-80% of the Market being controlled by Hi-Frequences Algo-Robo's we may never see normal

trading again.

A lot of professional traders I talk to long and short are quite frustrated, because this is an especially difficult environment to trade in.

The Bubble seems to be running on vapor right now.

Maybe that's why insiders, and people who really understand what a fraud this whole thing is are selling 500:1

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/poisoned-well10-10.html

But the Good, Good, Good crowd need not pay attention to this.

Their Wizard Of Oz fantasy World of "investing" is quite safe, I'm sure.

:eyes:

[Po_d Mainiac]

45. Absolutely...This environment kills the thinking investor.

My point was about today only. Everything but food and fuel was mixed, like even the puters didn't know if it was safe to leave the bathroom.

Dunno? Maybe Bumhanky is getting wet feet about crankin up the printing presses, and only told half his buds??

[ozymandius]

46. What happened? Was somebody bad?

Why the deletions? I gotta ask.

[Name removed]

40. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dr.Phool]

15. Is it too early to start drinking?

I think I'm all caught up on the chores. I could really waste a day in the pool. Besides, it's supposed to hit 90 degrees again today.

It's pretty sad when you're only on your second cup of coffee, and you've already said :wtf: 65 times, just going through the morning news.

Maybe I'll buy some stock in Johnson and Johnson. I think they make that Kentucky Jelly stuff that everyone at the fed seems to be using a lot of, walking around with their heads in unnatural places.

Bloody Mary's with the dogs. Yeah, that's the ticket.

[Warpy]

22. Ah, shaddap

We'll be lucky to hit 60 here in the high desert.

In an economy like this, starting one's drinking before breakfast is nearly a requirement. I can't drink so I use drugs. The only way to avoid it would be to forgo broadcast media entirely and cocoon with mindless hobbies and a lifetime accumulation of LPs and CDs. Yes, I still have a turntable.

Kentucky jelly stock is always a good idea, especially this time of year. As any veteran of hospital wards can tell you, its use goes far beyond human orifices. Try some on doorknobs around the house when you're mad at your significant other(s). Telephone receivers are also great places for it, especially if there are teenagers in the house with phonitis. It's especially fine on the earpiece.

It might be one of the few growth stocks out there for the reasons we both cited.

[Demeter]

23. I don't think so, Doc.

After all, you're the doctor. If you say "alcohol", who are we to argue.

Frankly, I don't think even alcohol will help. Welcome to Halloween Week, and the 81st anniversary of 1929!

[InkAddict]

25. Consider yourself lucky - High winds and possible tornadoes headed our

way will make for an exciting day...

[Roland99]

26. hey...your surf just might match ours then!

:)

[DemReadingDU]

29. We have high winds expected too

Possibly 72 mph! I should put lead in my shoes so I'm anchored to the ground and don't blow away!

[Dr.Phool]

37. That's a mean looking front going through there.

I just checked the Weather Channel's Cleveland radar. They are going to get nailed in about an hour.

[tclambert]

43. Your shoes would get left behind and your socks would get wet.

[tclambert]

44. 11,000 lost power here in Michigan.

Electric customers. Power lines down. Not voters. That number would be way higher.

[Demeter]

31. That's What they are saying here--the Sky Is Falling!

Right.

[alterfurz]

38. Upper Midwest Weather Word of the Day: Bombogenesis!

aka "explosive cyclogenesis"
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/tags/bombogenesis.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. Got the perfect business for us!!!

1 inch round strips of "Kong" type rubber about 4 inches long...To be clenched between the teeth....Get J&J to package them with the Kentucky Lube!!! :bounce:

[Ghost Dog]

33. Etymology (for those who like to know):

Is the word alcohol derived from the Arabic al-kohl? Most Arab laymen would think so. In Arabic, al means "the" and kohl or kohol means "black powder or paint for eyelids." For thousands of years, the eyelid paint most widely used by Arab women has been called ethmid; it is a fine black powder pulverized from mountain stones. Some men, due to ancient belief that kohl protects vision, use it also.

Webster's Third New International Dictionary, tracing the derivation of the word alcohol, states: "from ML (middle Latin), finely pulverized antimony used by women to darken the eyelids, from OS (old Spanish), from Arabic al-kuhul or al-kuhl." But according to Arab scholars, the famous dictionary is wrong. How could such a highly irritant and corrosive substance have anything to do with a commonly used cosmetic? Alcohol will burn the eye.

Arab scholars say there is no doubt that alcohol derives from another word: al-kol (al-ghol). The old Arabic dictionaries define al-kol (al-ghol) as a genie or spirit that may take away the mind. Obviously, the last statement fits well with alcohol--it does take away the mind.

- http://www.worldandi.com/specialreport/2001/november/Sa21530.htm

Or...

“…the word ‘alcohol’ does, in fact, come from Arabic — but it came with quite another meaning, and in a much more roundabout way. Al-kuhl originally described the powdered antimony used as make up, a meaning it has retained in current Arabic usage and which some Western languages have borrowed, as in the French words khôl, kohl or kohol, and the English ‘kohl’. When physicians subjected this antimony to high heat, it produced a cloud of fine powder. The direct transformation of a substance from solid to gas without passing through a liquid state is called sublimation. The gas produced by this method was called ‘alcohol’, a word that became synonymous with ‘spirit’, in the sense of ‘spirits-of-wine’ or ‘spirituous’. Little by little, around the 11th Century, the word came to describe all distilled drinks, and finally all alcoholic drinks; and it is this meaning — which no longer has anything to do with ‘kohl’ – that the word took back to Arabic, most probably around the 19th Century, certainly no earlier.”

- http://benatlas.com/2010/09/amin-maalouf-on-alcohol-and-spirit/

:shrug:

[Roland99]

34. (al) cool!

[Roland99]

27. 9:40 - it's a "Good Good Good" start for the markets! .... (oh wait....)

Dow 11,089 -75 -0.67%
Nasdaq 2,472 -19 -0.75%
S&P 500 1,179 -6 -0.52%
GlobalDow 2,023 -20 -0.99%
Gold 1,330 -9 -0.67%
Oil 82.02 -0.50 -0.61%


little jump up for the dollar, eh? Intervention afoot or some "bargain buying"?

[Demeter]

32. Only a flesh Wound

It's up, no, it's down, no....

[Ghost Dog]

35. USD & GBP rising today (against baskets). Hmmm.

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The pound surged and gilts dropped after Britain’s economy grew at double the pace forecast by economists in the third quarter and the nation’s credit outlook was raised at Standard & Poor’s.

Sterling rose against all 16 of its most-traded peers after gross domestic product rose 0.8 percent in the three months through September, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The statement damped concern the Bank of England will restart bond-purchases to support the recovery as the government prepares to begin spending cuts to tackle a record 156 billion-pound ($247 billion) deficit. It compares with a 0.4 percent median forecast of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. S&P, which affirmed its AAA rating on U.K. debt, today restored its outlook to “stable” from “negative.”

...

Sterling appreciated 1.2 percent against Europe’s 16-nation currency to 87.75 pence as of 12:42 p.m. in London, its biggest intraday gain since Sept. 7. It also climbed 0.9 percent against the dollar to $1.5868 and 1.5 percent to 128.93 yen.

The pound has depreciated 5 percent this year against a basket of its developed-country peers, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes, making it the second- worst performing currency, after the euro. <-- may want to check these numbers?

/... http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avSP6.8ovZaU

Although, just yesterday...

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The only major currency rivaling the dollar’s decline since July is the pound, and foreign-exchange strategists say the worst is yet to come for Britain’s legal tender.

Sterling has depreciated 5.1 percent against a basket of the nine other most-traded currencies, including last week’s 1.29 percent drop. Strategists are the most pessimistic on the pound versus the euro since the ruling Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition came to power in May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The decline suggests investors are losing confidence in Prime Minister David Cameron’s ability to restore growth while promising the deepest spending reductions in British history to shrink the biggest deficit in the Group of 20. His 81 billion pounds ($128 billion) of cuts through 2015 will force Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to print cash through so-called quantitative easing to prevent a new recession, overwhelming demand for sterling, according to UBS AG.

...

Britain’s expansion slowed to 0.4 percent in the period, from 1.2 percent in the three months ended June 30, according to the median estimate of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. GDP will increase 1.6 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2011, another survey shows. Germany will grow 3.3 percent in 2010 and 2 percent next year, while U.S. GDP will expand 2.7 percent and 2.5 percent, separate surveys show.

/... http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2KqPZNRjxN0&pos=15

Ah, the power of (usually revisable, often risible) statistics (especially the officialdom-manipulated variety).

Consumer Confidence Prints 50.2, Beats Expectations Of 49.9, Compared to 48.5 Previously

And Richmond Fed beats too, coming at +5, on expectations of 1... QE2 not looking so hot all of a sudden.

More on Consumer Confidence:

* Jobs Plentiful: 3.5 vs. Prev. 3.8
* Jobs Hard to Get: 46.1 vs. Prev. 46.1
* Inflation: 5% vs. (Prev. 4.9%, Rev. to 5.0%)

/... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/consumer-confidence-prints-502-beats-expectations-499-compared-485-previously

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the euro on speculation an increase in debt purchases by the Federal Reserve will cause inflation to accelerate.

Sterling rallied against all of its major counterparts as a report showed the U.K.’s economy grew in the third quarter at double the pace forecast by economists and Standard & Poor’s raised the nation’s credit outlook. The yen dropped versus the dollar on the prospects of Japan renewing intervention to weaken the currency and protect exporters.

“The Fed’s signaling channel has been very successful in raising inflation expectations as interpolated from various market prices,” analysts led by Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, wrote in a research note.

/... http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=aL3QPmUy7J5M

Hmmm. "Signaling Channel": elegant spin on good old smoke-and-mirrors.

:shrug:

[TalkingDog]

36. My new theme song for all the wrongheaded asshats who could make it better but won't....

Cee Lo Green Music Video

*Repeated use of the F* word.

[Po_d Mainiac]

39. +1000 ...but no pity for the fools...n/t