Bin Laden in warning to France

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: Al Jazeera English

Al-Qaeda leader calls abductions of French citizens in Niger a result of "injustices against Muslims" in new audiotape.

Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, has justified the kidnapping of five French citizens in Niger last month, calling the abductions the result of French injustices against Muslims and warning they will continue.

In a new audio recording attributed to Bin Laden and released to Al Jazeera on Wednesday, he called on the people of France to stop "interven in the affairs of Muslims in North and West Africa".

"The subject of my speech is the reason why your security is being threatened and your sons are being taken hostage," he said.

Read more: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2010/10/2010102710253569309.html

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Video cam must have broken.

:cry:

[wildbilln864]

2. Usama Bin DEAD! nt

[Thor_MN]

3. Osama Bin Atoola Daright

Funny how he pops up when ever, where ever conservatives need him most. He would be a super antihero if he had more presence than audio recordings.

[NYMdaveNYI]

18. Much like 9/11 "tm". Another toola daright... Nt

[Demeter]

4. He's Become A Legend Like Robin Hood

with mass appeal. You would think the Authorities would drop the whole thing like the hot potato it is....

[Botany]

5. bin Laden's greatest hits

You know that he (OBL) was on kidney dialysis over 9 years ago
and most people do not live that long on dialysis ..... oh wait
isn't there an election coming up?

[pampango]

6. Right wing wackos provoke right wing wackos who provoke right wing wackos who provoke right wing ...

The right wingers in France thank Osama for scaring French into supporting Sarkozy and the far right National Front who, in turn, should be thanked by Osama for their Islamophobia which makes recruitment easier for him and so on and so on and so on.

It is the far right in Europe that sees electoral advantage in an Islamophobia fear campaign (campaigns based on fear being a right wing staple everywhere). Osama, if he's still alive, undoubtedly understands this but uses it to bolster his agenda.

[Bragi]

7. The "OBL is dead" zealots amuse me

Fortunately, the devotees to this nutball theory are harmless.

[CJCRANE]

8. Where's the evidence

that he's alive?

In fact, he's just like Schrodinger's Cat.

[Bragi]

9. There are two main reasons to disbelieve reports of his death

There are two reasons that I think it highly unlikely that OBL is dead.

1. Anyone with reasonably sophisticated audio and video analysis equipment could spot if any of the released OBL tapes were fakes. Yet, to my knowledge, not a single released tape has ever been identified that was shown to be anything other than what it purported to be -- a recording of OBL's voice.

2. It would serve no purpose for AQ to pretend that OBL is alive when he isn't, and it would be unnecessarily high risk to do so. My reasoning is that Islamists see no disgrace in someone getting killed in the cause of jihad. Quite the opposite, death in cause of jihad is glorified. So I think OBL would be just as good to them in terms of propaganda as a dead martyr as he is alive. And if they pretended he was dead and he isn't, then eventually the truth will come out, which would then pointlessly undermine the credibility of future AQ propaganda with the audiences that matter to them (Note: remember that we are not their target audience.)

I'd be happy to debate any response to those points.

[Jazzgirl]

11. About point number 2...........

It may not serve AQ any purpose but the CIA sure has a purpose. They are using Aljazeera to spout everything they can. Heck, the things he supposedly says in these "tapes" really don't sound like his original speech patterns. Oh and the type of kidney problems he has mean he probably is very, very dead.

[Bragi]

13. My reply...

I take your point, and respond with the following questions:

Your theory assumes that AQ would have some reason to help out the CIA by joining in their fake claim that OBL is alive.

Since he is just as good to them as a dead martyr as he is alive, why would they risk being eventually exposed as happily playing along with the CIA on this for no apparent gain?

As for what he says in these tapes not being consistent with his earlier expressed views, or showing different voice patterns, I've not seen anything credible on this.

However, the fact is that voiceprints are (I gather from my reading) every bit personally-identifying as fingerprints, and no-one has ever claimed that the voice on tapes do not match OBL's voiceprint. If that were the case, it would not be hard to prove it.

Finally, as to his kidney disease, the assumption that it did him in presumes medical knowledge I don't have, but more importantly, it assumes he was unable to arrange for a kidney transplant, if he needed it.

Given his money, and given the number of medical people associated with the higher ranks of AQ, I don't think it's plausible that he would die for want of a transplant.

[Jazzgirl]

21. Where is it confirmed that it matches his voice print?

This has everything to do with keeping the fear alive. If he was really alive then why don't they show his face or show video anymore? They used to do that. This is propaganda at best.

[Bragi]

23. Every released tape has been confirmed as being from OBL /nt

[Turborama]

36. Please cite evidence that proves Al Jazeera English is being used by the CIA

Thanks in advance...

[Alamuti Lotus]

38. Also regarding point #2

I'm not from the same side as Bragi. Figured I should get that out early, since I kinda dislike him...but all the same, find myself with the same contempt for the conspiracy theorists on this particular matter.

The CIA isn't that smart. Really, really, isn't. They tried to take out Castro with a cigar; failed miserably, he's still a hero to millions after ... god, at least a dozen American Presidents have bit the dust?

Sheikh Ussamah has money, powerful friends, and devoted followers;--medical treatment ain't that tough these days. The unfortunate side of that is too many people are kept alive; many would argue that he could be one of them, but it is a strong argument all the same.

Are there any comments on the statement itself? To your humble narrator, it seems fairly interesting on its own without the decontexualized kneejerk soundbytes of either primary inclination.

Heck, the things he supposedly says in these "tapes" really don't sound like his original speech patterns

Except, the "as you kill us, we kill you" bit is a direct quote from at least 4 prior authentic statements of the Sheikh that I am aware of. Perhaps 5, I forget.

[CJCRANE]

14. Firstly, I've never seen a report of an independent analysis

confirming that these audiotapes are by Bin Laden (besides the usual anonymous "intelligence sources say...").

Secondly, it serves a very useful purpose for Al Qaeda to pretend that Bin Laden is alive. One of their primary goals is to bankrupt America. What easier way is there to help achieve that aim than to have the US military chasing after phantoms?

As for my own personal view, I think it's possible he died in the Pakistan earthquake of October 2005 which hit the NW region with a magnitude of 7.6 - 7.8.

[Bragi]

17. Hmmmm...

The equipment for doing independent analysis of voice recordings is not hard to come by, nor is it difficult to find experts who know how to use this equipment. I say that because these people show up in U.S and other courts every day whenever voice recordings are part of a case.

So am I to believe that no independent party, no organization, no media outlet has ever thought of using this equipment to test the OBL tapes, or had these tapes analyzed to see if they are fakes?

Your second point is that you think AQ benefits from pretending that OBL is alive "to have the US military chasing after phantoms?"

I suppose that's plausible, but then we have to include the US military as among those unable to use voiceprint technology. And isn't it the view of the "OBL is dead" believers that the CIA and the MIC are in on the coverup of OBL's death, so they can ramp up fear?

So I don't find those arguments compelling.

As for him dying in the 2005 earthquake, it would just as easy to speculate that he survived that one, but died in this year's floods. Both are equally plausible, and equally speculative.

[CJCRANE]

20. That's why I said he's like Schrodinger's Cat...

neither dead or alive.

On edit:

But just consider the balance of probability - a guy with kidney problems living in the mountains in winter in a third world country in an area made inaccessible by an earthquake...

[Bragi]

24. Consider this as well

We don't know where he is living, but we know he has unlimited funds, so I'm guessing it isn't a cave.

Regardless of where he is living, he would have no problem putting together the medical staff and facilities needed to do a kidney transplant, since transplants are quite routine these days.

[CJCRANE]

27. His son and others

reported that he lived a very simple, spartan life without modern conveniences. This idea that he was some kind of Bond villain who lived in a superfortress turned out to be make believe.

If you remember the Pakistan Earthquake in 2005 - the mountains were inaccessible, no one could get to the victims. Your speculation about some kind of crack team of medical transplant specialists is...not something I've ever heard of before. I don't know how routine transplants are in inaccessible mountainous regions, I'll have to defer to a medical expert on that one (maybe another DUer can comment).

[L.Torsalo]

29. Ockham's razor.

The possibility of his being alive is a simpler option than a vast conspiracy. No matter what you feel.

[RZM]

28. It's an interesting question

I don't have any answers and I suspect no intelligence service around the world knows for sure either. Probably the only people who know are his inner circle. But anyway, I see three possible fates for him:

1) He's alive
2) He was killed
3) He died of natural causes

Information in the public sphere tends to support number 1. It's not great info, but that's where it points.

Were he killed by the US or people working for the US, I'm pretty sure we would have heard about it. I think the domestic and foreign political gains of such an action (especially during the Bush years) would have trumped any incentive for 1984-style government disinformation machinations in order to justify a permanent war footing. Besides, you wouldn't need Bin Laden for those anyway -- the mere existence of AQ is good enough. I personally don't believe in those types of conspiracies, but in any case I find it extremely unlikely that the US would keep a successful hit on Bin Laden a secret. And as you mentioned, AQ probably wouldn't either, as his martyrdom while fighting the infidels could be spun into gold.

Number 3 is trickier, because it would be difficult for intelligence services to confirm it and could make the US look weak (we hunted this guy for years and he still managed to die on his own without our help). Maybe I'm wrong about that, but if people thought that way, that would mean it would be in AQ's interest to divulge that information. Plus, as you point out, hiding his death could bite them in the ass if they denied it and the truth came out -- their target audience would indeed feel that they had been strung along and lied to for years.

My guess is that he's alive but more or less marginalized - unable to actually direct operations and valuable only as a symbol.

[ronnie624]

15. People with other opinions, have been saying for years, he's "probably" dead.

CIA agent alleged to have met Bin Laden in July

Bin Laden has often been reported to be in poor health. Some accounts claim that he is suffering from Hepatitis C, and can expect to live for only two more years.

According to Le Figaro, last year he ordered a mobile dialysis machine to be delivered to his base at Kandahar in Afghanistan.

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2001/nov/01/afghanistan.terrorism>

Peter Bergen: Bin Laden has aged 'enormously'

<http://edition.cnn.com/2002/US/02/01/gen.bergen.cnna/index.html>

US casts doubt on bin Laden's latest message

Reacting last night to the contention of the new Afghan defence minister, Gen Rashid Dostum, that bin Laden had fled, Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, said: "We get six, seven, eight, 10, 12 conflicting reports every day. I've stopped chasing them."

He added, to laughter from reporters at a Pentagon briefing: "We do know of certainty that he is in Afghanistan or some other country or dead."

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/1366508/US-casts-doubt-on-bin-Ladens-latest-message.html>

Dr. Sanjay Gupta: Bin Laden would need help if on dialysis

Speculation about the whereabouts and health of Osama bin Laden picked up over the weekend when Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, said he thought bin Laden had likely died of kidney failure.

<http://edition.cnn.com/2002/HEALTH/01/21/gupta.otsc/>

Karzai: bin Laden 'probably' dead

<http://edition.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/central/10/06/karzai.binladen/>

Bin Laden 'probably' dead

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation's counter-terrorism chief, Dale Watson, says he thinks Osama bin Laden is "probably" dead.

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2135473.stm>

Report: Bin Laden Already Dead

Usama bin Laden has died a peaceful death due to an untreated lung complication, the Pakistan Observer reported, citing a Taliban leader who allegedly attended the funeral of the Al Qaeda leader.

<http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,41576,00.html>

Israeli intelligence: Bin Laden is dead, heir has been chosen

The Israeli sources said Israel and the United States assess that Bin Laden probably died in the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan in December. They said the emergence of new messages by Bin Laden are probably fabrications, Middle East Newsline reported.

<http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2002/me_terrorism_10_16.html>

[Bragi]

22. All fair speculation on their part, at the time

I note that all the articles cited are from the 2001-2 period.

I also note that none of the sources quoted in the articles seem to have repeated their belief that OBL is dead after their initial assertions.

I presume this is because they realized, as the series of tapes were released, none of which was shown to be a fake, that their initial suspicions turned out to be unfounded.

Fair enough. I don't have a problem with speculative reasoning, since in the absence of hard evidence, that's all we have.

However, if the tapes are indeed fakes, then the fact is that voiceprint technology could easily confirm them as fakes.

As not a single tape has been exposed as a fake, I take this to confirm that they are authentic, and that he is therefore still alive.

[ronnie624]

25. I don't know what you mean by "fake".

Anyway, I couldn't possibly know one way or the other without evidence. I just thought your use of the term "nutball" was unfair.

[Bragi]

26. You're right, "nutball" is not a useful term

Thanks for pointing that out. I withdraw that unnecessarily confrontational and dismissive word.

And I agree we can't know definitively if he is dead or alive, but that the best "evidence" we have are the tapes.

They include reference to events that are current at the time the tapes are released.

It is also incomprehensible why, if they are fake, that no-one has ever used readily-available voiceprint and audio assessment technology to prove this (if for no other reason than to win a Pulitzer prize.)

[frylock]

19. there's a sucker born every minute

[wildbilln864]

39. the usama's still around zealots amuse me....

He's dead! Been dead. If he was alive he'd make sure his followers knew it by making a believable video. Anyone can fake audio!
UBL is dead!

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[harvey007]

12. Focus your attention on the bearded man in the cave!

Pay no attention to the corrupt criminal cabal that is stealing your money!

[L0oniX]

16. The boogeyman speaks from the dead.

[lovuian]

30. French people have been striking against Sarkosky

then the Boogey man comes out

Isn't it getting obvious

[yurbud]

31. when is somebody going to figure out how to pull the plug on that crap?

this makes us look like idiots to the rest of the world. If he is really alive, it's clear our government doesn't give a shit about catching him. If he is dead or mostly fictional, we're keeping up a propaganda charade that fools no one except the knuckledraggers on the right.

Either way, we look bad.

[Alamuti Lotus]

33. Are appearances more important than substance?

By the (lack of) virtue of the actions spoken of and implied, the governments mentioned are a bunch of idiots who should look bad. And beyond imagine, should also be made to feel bad.

[yurbud]

34. that's a tall order since they are acting on behalf of the rich and will be richly rewarded

[Alamuti Lotus]

32. Not unreasonable 'equation'

"The equation is very clear and simple: as you kill, you will be killed; as you take others hostages, you will be taken hostages; as you waste our security we will waste you waste your security," he said.

[and-justice-for-all]

35. I really do not believe that this guy is real

and I know "Al-Qaeda" does not exist.

[Alamuti Lotus]

37. Then you're living in a fantasy world

Resistance to the world empire may not be pretty (most often not, now that I think about it, which is quite unfortunate in itself), but it is indeed quite real. What seems disingeniune about the present release? This is a bad article (which is odd, al-Jazeera usually performs decently at the least), there is a recent AP piece that more properly covers the audio in more direct substance than external commentary.