Model Now Has Whitman as Big Underdog in California

[avaistheone1]

Source: New York Times


By NATE SILVER

While there was an interesting set of polls in Senate and U.S. House races today, the polling load was lighter in gubernatorial contests, with most surveys confirming current assumptions about the races.

That’s bad news for California’s Meg Whitman, the Republican who appears increasingly likely to lose a once-tight race against Jerry Brown. Indeed, that assumption will become more entrenched after three new polls today.

The surveys, from Suffolk University, Fox News, and Public Policy Polling, gave Mr. Brown leads of 8, 9 and 11 points, respectively. While this is the first time that Suffolk has polled California, the Fox News and Public Policy Polling surveys show Mr. Brown having expanded his lead by several points, as other recent surveys have also shown.

As a result of these polls, our forecasting model now gives Ms. Whitman just a 6 percent chance of winning, down from 10 percent yesterday.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/model-now-has-whitman-as-big-underdog-in-california/





Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/model-now-has-whitman-as-big-underdog-in-california/

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Go Jerry!

[xxqqqzme]

1. After the '30 year' ad,

it is going to be even lower.

[Champion Jack]

4. funniest ad this season, by far

[bergie321]

20. Best political ad I have ever seen

Hope the guy who came up with it gets a job in Brown's administration.

[prolesunited]

22. That ad was truly awesome!

It just proves that the GOP doesn't get it.

[kestrel91316]

2. Maybe we can get her to spend another $140 million in the last week.

Spend yourself into the poorhouse, Nutmeg!

[bergie321]

21. Hopefully

She spends all of her money on more ads reminding Californians of how much better the state was when Jerry Brown was Governor.

[tabatha]

3. Yeah. She would be a disaster.

[MineralMan]

5. Good! I've actually stopped worrying about that race now.

[calimary]

8. Yeah but still - don't forget to vote!

Even looking at the polls and the sentiment out here, I'm still gonna worry about that race til it's put to bed for good. Don't forget what team we're up against, and what they'll stop at - to win: NOTHING.

I don't trust a republi-CON farther than I can throw my house.

[MineralMan]

10. I lived in California almost all my life. I moved to Minnesota in

2004, so I can't vote in CA any longer. My family is still there, though, so I follow things closely.

[calimary]

12. Then make sure you vote in Minnesota!

I think the whole Martha Coakley disaster should be instructive to us all. It doesn't matter how big a lead you may think you have, or even how big a lead all the papers and pollsters say you have. If you think you've got this all wrapped up and you let down your guard (either you the candidate who decides she can bug out for a nice little vacation in the middle of campaign season, or you the voter who presumes that this race is in the bag so hey, one less vote here and there really won't make that much difference), you're kidding yourself.

Til the last vote is counted - and even afterwards, we can NEVER afford to let our guard down!!!! EVER!!! Just always remember who we're up against and to what lengths they're willing to go.

[MineralMan]

13. Absolutely!

[KansDem]

6. "Underdog?" Hell, there's only one "Underdog!"

Nate, I knew Underdog. Underdog was a friend of mine. Nate, Meg's no Underdog.

[avaistheone1]

17. lol

Thanks for the laugh.

:thumbsup:

[piggy2000]

7. Stop the Billionaires

It warms my heart that some billionaires with NO Government experience CANNOT buy a seat in Government. Thank you, California! Stop the privatization of America.

[Raster]

9. Maybe the good folks in California have learned their lesson since Ah-nuld.

Spending a pile of money to buy a governor's chair does not necessarily mean good government nor money well spent.

[calimary]

11. We're doing our best here in California!

It's upsetting that "Stop the Billionaires" seems not to have much traction anywhere else, but at least here in CA, it's gonna work this time - at least in this race. And remember what they've said since the Prop 13 days: As California goes, so goes the nation.

This is NO time to hand the governing of our country over to a bunch of amateurs - no matter how much money they have. This is a time of grave problems that face us all. This is NO time for Amateur Hour!!!!! That means WE ALL are going to be paying the price for these ignorant arrogant assholes' learning curves. Those who do win are gonna spend their entire term trying to figure out the what, the who, the why, the where, the when, and the how, especially when their rigid, doctrinaire, black-or-white, all-or-nothing ideology butts heads with the way things are in Washington. That's what I wish for them. Their constituents are sending them there to "get the job done." I wonder how it will be, either two years from now or six years from now, when the constituents want to know what these assholes got accomplished and see that the answer is a big fat ZERO? I think I can already find consolation in the inevitable blowback these people will face. It's the bed they will have made and the bed on which they will now be forced to lie down. And they're gonna have to explain away how THEY will be the incumbents and THEY will be the insiders and THEY won't have gotten Thing One accomplished for all their nasty, selfish, greedy, racist, short-sighted little teabagger friends back home.


BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, TEABAGGERS!!!

[JDPriestly]

15. Jerry Brown is just smart, and the best in politics is in his blood.

He learned to keep a level head and how to strategically use limited resources from his dad.

He is just what we need in California.

I do not like to think in terms of budget cuts or expenditures, not even with regard to personal financial matters. I prefer to think in terms of, "How do I use all my resources to best advantage?" Because that is the crucial question. It isn't a matter of "What do I have to do without now?" (although sometimes I do hate having to do without things I need or think I need), but rather, "How do I get the most out of what I have?"

When my children were very small, I was a stay-at-home mom in a one-income family. I couldn't get a job because we were living overseas and first, I couldn't find a trustworthy babysitter (most working moms there left their children with family members) and I didn't qualify for a lot of jobs because I was not quite fluent enough in the language at the time. So, I learned to make do on very little. And here is what I discovered: I already had or could get very cheaply anything I really, really needed. It is amazing how many resources we have but don't use.

I think Jerry Brown takes that approach in his life. If you look at his ads, he uses a lot of Whitman's own expensive footage. It's sort of like Karate or Kung Fu financial management. I found it worked in my life. And I think that Jerry Brown knows this secret.

That is why I think Jerry Brown will be so good at turning California's finances around. He is really, really resourceful and creative with financial things and with selecting people who are really, really resourceful and creative with financial things.

Meg Whitman, in spite of her braggadocio about her business career -- not so much. She spends too much money. By spending so much money on her campaign, she came to look like the spendthrift she really is. We do not need that in California. She is a person who likes to waste her money, and that is what she has done on her campaign.

[Kolesar]

16. that was insightful...eom

[obxhead]

14. Wait... .Fox did WHAT??

wow! :wow:

I need a minute to pick up my lower jaw, it manged to get kicked under the chair.

[California Griz]

18. Don't worry we know what's up

The Boxer race is still close with Fiorina making this desperation hospital visit she might pick up some sympathy votes. Everybody I know is determined not to let that outsourcing pond scum take Boxer's seat.

[Brother Buzz]

19. Fiorina's hospitalization may net zip

Any 'sympathy' vote she picks up will be negated by a vote against her on the assumption she may not be up to the rigors of the job.

All in all, I view Fiorina's trip to the hospital as a non story.