STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 2 April

[ozymandius]

Friday April 2, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 296
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 112 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 165 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 378
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 861
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 1, 2004

Dow... 10,373.33 +15.63 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq... 2,015.01 +20.79 (+1.04%)
S&P 500... 1,132.17 +5.96 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.90% +0.06 (+1.59%)
Gold future... 428.80 +0.50 (+0.12%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[54anickel]

1. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
USD
Last trade 87.49 Change +0.28 (+0.32%)
Settle 87.21 Settle Time 23:36
Open 87.21 Previous Close 87.21
High 87.59 Low 87.14

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=s
USDJPY
Last trade 104.06 Change +0.03 (+0.03%)
Open 104.03 Previous Close 104.03
High 104.43 Low 104.0
Bid 104.06 Ask 104.07



http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

Dollar Firms Ahead of Payrolls, Primed for a Rebound by Jes Black

At 8:30:00 AM US Mar Employment Payrolls (exp 100K-130K, prev 21K) US Mar Unemployment Rate (exp 5.6%, prev 5.6%) US Mar Average Hourly Earnings (exp 0.2%, prev 0.2%)

The dollar rose on position squaring ahead of today’s critical jobs report. March non farm payrolls are expected to rise 100k-130k after three consecutive disappointments. If ever there was an event that could spark a dollar rally, a plus 100k jobs report would likely do it because this would be the first time since February 2001 that payrolls surpassed the 100k threshold. Technically, the dollar is primed for a rally as it has fallen for 15 of the past 20 days against the yen and 4 consecutive days against the euro, its worst performance since last December. In addition the dollar successfully defended critical support levels this week; 1.24 against the euro and 1.86 against the pound. Therefore a disappointing payrolls number could very well shift the tide against the dollar if these levels were to give.


EUR/USD

EUR/USD fell to a session low of 1.2296 down one cent from an overnight high at 1.24 after a 3.5 cent rally from Monday’s new 4-month low of 1.2050. As the market braces for today’s payroll report key resistance remains at 1.2400/30. Only a move above here would hint at a larger rally in store. Otherwise, if the payrolls number is as expected a break below support at 1.22/1.2175 would likely see further losses targeting this week’s low of 1.2050. But until the euro breaches 1.2380 or 1.2050 the pair remains in limbo.


USD/JPY

The dollar retested this week’s 4-year low of 103.40 this morning at 103.48. The dollar has fallen for 15 of the past 20 days and momentum gauges are severely oversold on a daily chart and showing a greater bullish divergence on the 4 hour chart. If the 103.40 lows hold a considerable bounce is likely if the dollar were to regain its strength this week. Resistance is seen at 105.25 and 106.25.


http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/04/02/rtr1321653.html
FOREX-Dollar on firmer ground ahead of U.S. jobs data

LONDON, April 2 (Reuters) - The dollar rose broadly ahead of an eagerly-awaited U.S. employment report on Friday, recovering almost a yen from four-year lows against the Japanese currency set earlier this week.

Monthly U.S. jobs figures have disappointed recently, sending the dollar reeling, but a strong employment component in Thursday's ISM manufacturing report has raised expectations that March payrolls data at 1330 GMT could be better.

Economists polled by Reuters last week expected 103,000 new jobs to have been created last month compared with 21,000 in February. However, dealers said the consensus was now closer to 120,000.

"Expectations for the payrolls are flying quite high at the moment," said Carsten Fritsch, currency strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

snip>
Job creation has been the weak spot in the U.S. economic recovery and investors believe the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates until the employment market has perked up.

Low rates of return on dollar deposits have played a key role in the dollar's recent downtrend as investors have sought higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

YEN LOSES STEAM

The yen paused on Friday after sharp gains earlier in the week, prompting speculation Japanese investors were buying foreign assets at the start of the fiscal year which began on Thursday.

Nevertheless, against a backdrop of an improving economy, large foreign buying of Japanese stocks, and an apparent scaling back of intervention by the Bank of Japan, analysts said it was only a matter of time before the Japanese currency resumed its climb.

"The yen is just pausing for breath," said David Mann, currency strategist at Standard Chartered. "We still see it going higher in the coming months."

[ozymandius]

2. Today's WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Cheers - Bar Room Stock Market Talk

My focus today is thoughts that are best expressed in a barroom with the responsible consumption of one or two beers. This is part of my social life that I sometimes miss since devoting some of my spare time to the stock market and FSO, and I would like to make up for some of that tonight. I would like to express some thoughts about corporate governance. You may feel free to reciprocate some of your similarly unplugged impressions about the stock market via e-mail.

Woody: If the correction in the USA had not occurred, would the Dow be at 20,000 by now, or the NASDAQ at 10,000?

Martin: Greenspan made the irrational exuberance speech in December of 1996.The market was out of control then. It was also lower than it was now by a lot. No one wanted to take away the speculative punch bowl. And it got worse from there. The bubble never ended in my view. The market had to come down from Pluto and now it’s on Mars. The Nasdaq would have never have gone to 10,000. Consider that many of the companies making up Nasdaq 5,000 do not even exist any more. Remember that Wall Street sold those companies to the public. No business plan. No plan at all except for selling shares to the public. When the Nasdaq was at 5,000, many of these companies were “worth” tens of billions of dollars. El Cito (remember the commercial of the guy trying to urinate into the tall urinal with stilts?), Dr. Koop.com, Firepond.com, Metrocom, Internet.com (an actual company), Looksmart, Flag Telecom, Lifeminders.com, the list goes on and on and on. I keep a March 2000 Barron's just as a reminder. And these "companies" were sold to the public by the likes of the most well regarded investment banks in the world. And the only ones who were personally punished for these crimes were a few scapegoats like Jack Grubman, and Henry Blodget. What happened to those two worked just great in personalizing the situation to the public and making them feel like justice was served. But these guys didn’t operate in a vacuum like the mainstream sound-bite media would have you believe. Look here. I have a March 20, 2000 Barron’s. On page 27 is a read herring for the sale of 6 million shares of “Avenue A” stock at $24/share. The investment bankers involved were Morgan Stanley, Smith Barney, Thomas Weisel, Dain Rauscher, Janney Montgomery Scott, Raymond James, U.S. Bancorp, First Union, Edward Jones and Wit Soundview. So who was held personally responsible for this ill-fated secondary offering? Just the public who lost practically all of their money was ultimately held responsible for that one. And they got what they deserved, although I can’t say the same for the bankers. There were hundreds of cases like that one too! So for the Nasdaq to have gone to 10,000 would have required that these fraud businesses stay in business, and even grow. And even in that crazy emotionally charged time of excess, this was totally impossible.

The SEC and the administration eventually settled for a token fine for the chicanery, just to let the speculation game continue. So much of the financial sector’s profits depend on our active and beloved stock market. And the band plays on! Just look at that upgrade chart in last week’s Market WrapUp. And Wall Street cheers when these guys (themselves) report earnings that beat their own "expectations". (All the while they are unloading shares on the public.) “Goldman upgrades, Merrill... Merrill upgrades Smith Barney… Smith Barney upgrades Morgan Stanley... Morgan Stanley upgrades Goldman…” Then they all upgrade Intel and Cisco… I suppose that an overpriced stock market is an integral part of the so-called economic recovery. Speculate at your own risk!

Today’s Market

Since we last spoke, as you know, there has been an apparent complete turnaround in many key markets. After last Thursday’s 55-point impressive rally, the Nasdaq has been on a tare, point-wise, and less so on the basis of volume. The Dow Transports have been on a similar trajectory, and the upside volume has been more impressive, but still nothing to write home about. The Dow, S&P 500 and S&P Small Cap indices all sit at key resistance points. The Nasdaq has for now, broken back above the support/resistance/psychological level of 2,000, but not decisively. The bottom line is that we are at a very important cross roads in the stock market. To quote baseball manager Gene Mauch, “its either going to be hit on the ground or in the air”. That’s how I feel about what the charts are telling me. This market has done nothing but trend up or down for a decade. There have been relatively little times of maintaining a trading range. While placing your bets on the winning numbers has been rewarding, being wrong (and stubborn) has been expensive. We are at an important crossroad in the markets, as resistance lines from the most recent “healthy correction” are tested from below.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning everyone!

As has been the habit lately - I won't be around much today. My boy is doing at least well enough to go to daycare. And that means that I will be working madly to complete some projects.

So I wish you all a grand weekend and a handsome day at the Casino!

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

5. Glad to here your boy is doing better!

Have a great weekend as well.
:hi:

Be sure to stop and get one to go as well
:donut:

[54anickel]

4. Manufacturing on rise in March

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/8337393.htm

The nation's manufacturing sector continued to expand strongly in March, an industry group reported Thursday.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index registered 62.5 in March compared with a reading of 61.4 in February. The new reading was above the expectations of analysts, who had forecast a figure of 59.5.

An index reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting. All 20 industries that comprise the manufacturing sector reported growth, ISM said.

The group's measure of new orders declined 0.7 to 65.7 in March, still quite strong.

snip>
GM, Ford see sales increase in March

General Motors and Ford Motor posted U.S. sales increases in March, as did two of Japan's biggest car manufacturers, but the uptick in business wasn't enough to keep GM and Ford from raising consumer incentives to lure more customers.

Industrywide, U.S. sales rose 3.8 percent in March compared with a year ago, a jump largely anticipated because of depressed results in March 2003, when many people delayed major purchases.

After a slow start to the year, automakers should see business continue to rise for the next couple of months as Americans spend tax refunds and take advantage of ever-increasing consumer incentives, analysts say.

snip>
Nintendo lowers profit forecast

Japanese video game maker Nintendo said Thursday it has lowered its profit forecast for the just-ended fiscal year because of an unexpectedly large currency-related loss caused by the yen's surge against the dollar.

The Kyoto-based maker of Super Mario and Pokémon games said it now expects a net profit of 33 billion yen ($317 million) for the year through March 31, down from the 54 billion yen profit projection it made in January.

The currency-related loss is likely to reach 68 billion yen ($654 million), it said.

snip>
AOL moves jobs to India

Internet giant America Online, which has cut jobs on its home turf to deal with subscriber losses, is moving to save money by hiring employees and setting up a software development center in India.

Dulles, Va.-based AOL, part of Time Warner, has set up a development center in the southern Indian metropolis of Bangalore, hiring about a dozen people for now, the company disclosed Wednesday. Many other positions have been advertised in local newspapers.

``Our development center will work in close coordination with our global offices in the United States and other locations on a variety of different product initiatives,'' the company said in a statement released to the Associated Press.

snip>
Sony sets up a holding company

Sony on Thursday established a holding company for its financial businesses, helping the electronics and entertainment giant streamline its operations in an effort to improve profits.

But officials were short on specifics on new products and strategies for the 500 million yen ($4.8 million) Sony Financial Holdings that combines Sony Bank, an Internet bank, Sony Life Insurance and Sony Assurance, an auto insurer.

The Tokyo-based holding company, the first in Japan to cover both insurance and banking, will allow the company to develop a long-term strategy and strengthen cooperation among the three sectors, Sony Executive Deputy President Teruhisa Tokunaka said.

[54anickel]

6. Gateway Stores Put Out to Pasture

http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3334901

The third-largest computer maker is shuttering its stores on April 9th and looking to the newly acquired eMachines to provide channel contacts.

Poway, Calif.-based Gateway said all 188 company-operated stores will shut down and approximately 2,500 retail jobs will go with them. Just a year ago, the company finalized plans to close 76 of its retail stores in the face of sluggish PC sales and increasing competition from Dell Computer (Quote, Chart) and HP (Quote, Chart). The move, Gateway's third restructuring in as many years, eliminated 29 percent of its stores and 17 percent of its staff.

On its Web site, customers are advised to look to the Web and call enters for support and customer service. The company said that it stopped selling support options for walk-in service and loaner computers in June 2002, and most of them have expired. Customers with remaining time on service agreements may be eligible for a pro-rated refund.

A company spokesperson said that customers still will be able to get machines serviced by shipping them back to the company. He said the in-store service departments will finish repairs on all machines at hand, but he did not know whether they had stopped accepting new repair jobs.

snip>
The announcement follows the completion of Gateway's acquisition of low-cost PC maker eMachines. EMachines came with twelve strong retail relationships, including BestBuy, Office Depot and Wal-Mart, as well as a lean operations model that produced $1.1 billion in revenue last year and a string of nine consecutive profitable quarters.

Former Gateway CEO Ted Waitt stepped aside to let eMachines CEO Wayne Inouye, a former senior VP for BestBuy, take the helm of the combined company, with Waitt remaining as chairman.

[54anickel]

7. Dow Jones index shuffles lineup AT&T, Kodak and International Paper out

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/0404/02component.html

The Dow Jones industrial average gets even less industrial next week.

Wall Street's oldest stock market index will replace old-timers AT&T, Eastman Kodak and International Paper with American International Group, Pfizer and Verizon Communications starting April 8.

It's the first change in the prestigious stock market barometer since Nov. 1, 1999 — when Home Depot joined fellow Georgian Coca-Cola, which had been a Dow stock since 1987.

The 108-year-old index of 30 blue chip stocks belongs to Dow Jones & Co., which was quick to point out Thursday that the latest change was no reflection on the companies being replaced.

Paul E. Steiger, managing editor of The Wall Street Journal, who oversees the makeup of the index, said the change is being made to "recognize trends within the U.S. stock market, including the continued growth of the financial and health care sectors and the diminishing relative weight of basic materials stocks."

American International Group is a multiline insurance company, Pfizer is the world's largest drug maker and Verizon is the nation's biggest local phone company. All are headquartered in New York.

Two drug stocks are already in the Dow, Merck & Co. and Johnson & Johnson.

Verizon will be the second telecommunications stock, with SBC Communications. Both are local phone companies that came into being when AT&T was broken up in antitrust action 20 years ago.

American International will be the first insurance firm in the Dow, which already has three financial stocks: American Express, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase.

Not surprisingly, the newcomers' shares rose in Thursday's trading and the shares of the three being deleted declined.

The Dow is the world's most famous stock market index. It has changed many times over the years to reflect trends in the U.S. economy from the production of goods and machines to services.

more...

[54anickel]

8. Harder Line On Fannie, Freddie - Panel Clears Way For New Regulator

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43680-2004Apr1.html

The Senate Banking Committee yesterday approved a bill to create a new regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with the power to put the giant mortgage companies into receivership and liquidate their assets if they become insolvent.

The bill passed the committee on a vote of 12 to 9, with Sen. Zell Miller (D-Ga.), who frequently sides with Republicans, joining a unified bloc of committee Republicans. The nearly party-line vote left the future of the legislation in doubt.

The action came as the current regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) elaborated on its Wednesday statement that an ongoing agency review of Fannie Mae's accounting practices "may result" in a restatement of the company's financial results.

Director Armando Falcon Jr. said his agency's investigation "is proceeding with a broad review of all accounting matters but has also been intensely focused on several specific issues," including the company's "accounting for impairments." An impairment is an accounting term referring to a loan that won't be completely paid back or some other asset that has fallen in value.

snip>
After yesterday's vote on the bill he sponsored, Banking Committee Chairman Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.) questioned whether the bill would be considered by the full Senate this year and questioned what would happen if it did. "It will happen someday," Shelby said after the markup. "I don't know about this year.

"We're swimming in a river with some of the most powerful lobbyists that Washington's ever seen. That is Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and their friends," he said. "These people don't want a regulator that's powerful.e companies. "It's obvious they like the status quo because they have a weak, weak regulator."

snip>
Supporters of the legislation said it was needed to protect taxpayers and the financial system from a potential crisis at the federally chartered mortgage companies, which have combined debts of $1.7 trillion.

Serious problems at one of the companies could make the $130 billion savings-and-loan bailout "pale by comparison," Shelby said.

Democratic opponents said the bill could threaten the stability of the nation's mortgage system and could lead to the complete privatization of the so-called government-sponsored enterprises.

The bill "opens the door to . . . the end of GSEs as we know them," said Sen. Charles C. Schumer (D-N.Y.). Members of the Bush administration appear to favor severing the companies' ties to the government, and the bill would give a hostile regulator the tools to "choke" the companies, Schumer said.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Snow Slams Bush `Opponents,' `Critics'; Not Political, He Says (Uh-huh)

:eyes:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aEctyTdSbD94&refer=news_index

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- During George W. Bush's campaign for the presidency in 2000, Democratic Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers called the Republican's proposals for Social Security ``highly problematic.''

Foul play, Republicans cried. Summers' comment was an ``inappropriate politicization'' of a ``historically nonpolitical'' department, said Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer. ``Summers has jumped in with both feet in the partisan debate,'' said Dick Cheney, Bush's running mate.

Four years later, as Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry pledges to eliminate some of President Bush's tax cuts and end incentives for corporations to move jobs abroad, it's the Republican Treasury secretary who's causing a stir.

``We have choices to make in this country regarding our economy,'' Summers' successor John W. Snow told business leaders in Cincinnati on Monday. ``We have to choose between higher taxes and lower taxes. We have to choose between economic isolationism or embracing the opportunity of the world's markets.''

Snow and a Treasury spokesman say such comments, which the 65- year-old Snow has made in trips around the country, media appearances and Washington speeches, don't mean he has crossed the line into politics.

more...

[Maeve]

10. For what it's worth--the latest numbers on employment

8:30 U.S. March nonfarm payrolls up stunning 308,000
8:30 U.S. March unemployment rate rises a tenth to 5.7%
8:30 U.S. Jan., Feb. payrolls revised higher by 86,000 total
8:30 U.S. March aggregate hours worked falls 0.1%
8:30 U.S. March average hourly wages up 0.1%
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/default.asp

Added on edit:
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by a surprising 308,000 in March, the largest gain since April 2000, the Labor Department estimated Friday. The unemployment rate nudged a tenth of a percent higher to 5.7 percent. The gain in payrolls far exceeded the 122,000 expected by economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch. Payroll growth in previous months was also revised higher, by a total of 86,000 jobs. For the first time in 44 months, employment in the manufacturing sector did not fall; it was unchanged. Despite the increase in jobs, hours worked in the economy fell by 0.1 percent. The average workweek also fell by a tenth of an hour to 33.7 hours. Average hourly earnings rose 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $15.54 an hour.

It doesn't add up, but that's the norm for this business

[54anickel]

11. And the futures blast off!

Hmmm, but, but doesn't this increase the probability of a rate hike sooner rather than later?

[KayLaw]

12. Right

That's what I was going to ask. I thought such a high number would alarm the markets, at least I thought I read that yesterday.

[54anickel]

13. That will be the reason for profit taking later on -

either this afternoon or early next week, IMHO. For now it's a good reason to pump up the market.

Remember earlier this week (Monday), there was the reminder that the returning strikers (72,000) would have an effect on the job numbers.

We also need to see if these numbers are seasonally adjusted and how construction workers are taken into account in season adjustments if at all. This is the start of the construction and lawncare season.

If these are not seasonally adjusted, then it was an effort to squash Kerry's talking point, the lastest ads that I've seen and to support Shrubs big talking point today in W Va. If there is a correction or revision, it won't matter. This has made the headlines and any corrections will be buried in the obituary sections.

Edit to add link to Monday's snippet (Ozy's linked story has changed) -

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=450867#451099

All of these, however, will be overshadowed by Friday's payrolls numbers. Median forecasts are for only a modest 103,000 rise in March following February's 21,000 gain.

One complicating factor is a return from strikes of 72,000 grocery workers, some of which will likely be displaced by replacement workers.

Bank One estimates the net effect probably will be to boost payrolls by roughly 50,0000.

"If after abstracting from the strike effects the increase in payrolls is 100,000 or fewer, we would remain highly confident that the first Fed tightening will be after the November elections," said Bank One's Johnson.

[54anickel]

14. US$ likes these numbers as well

Last trade 88.31 Change +1.10 (+1.26%)

High 88.50 Low 87.14

[54anickel]

19. More on jobs -

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Articles/Dispatches/P79973.asp

Jobs soar in March
Payrolls increase by more than twice the expected number. But Gateway cuts 2,800 jobs, and Sun follows suit, eliminating 3,300 positions.

snip>
The increase in nonfarm payrolls was the highest in four years, helped by strong hiring in the construction sector and striking grocery workers in California returning to work. January and February payroll increases were also revised higher. With those revisions, the economy created 517,000 jobs in the first quarter.

But the unemployment rate edged up to 5.7%. Economists surveyed by CNBC and Dow Jones expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 120,000 last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.6%.

snip>
But investors shouldn’t be too giddy, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. There are still a lot of pressures on the job market, and while hiring should pick up, it’s unlikely the job market will come “roaring back,” Zandi told “Squawk Box.” In addition, the stock market may be concerned about the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates is the labor numbers stay strong, he said.



End to grocery strike boosts U.S. jobs-Labor Dept
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/04/02/rtr1321785.html

WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - The end of the California grocery strike added 10,000 to 20,000 jobs to U.S. payrolls in March, the Labor Department said on Friday.

The strike, which began Oct. 12 and idled about 70,000 workers, ended on Feb. 29.

"It (the strike) brought on about 50,000 to 60,000 replacement workers, which were laid off in March," an official with the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

"So the net effect on employment is going to be an increase between 10,000 and 20,000," she said.

A bit of a difference in the net effect than predicted on Monday. :shrug:

[54anickel]

33. Here is yet a bit more

http://www3.cjad.com/content/cjad_news/article.asp?id=b040235A

snip>
The only sector losing jobs last month was information services, where companies cut about 1,000 people. :(

Friday's revisions to previous statistics indicated the job market was stronger than previously reported in the early part of the year. Companies added 205,000 jobs in January and February, instead of the 118,000 reported last month.

"I'm not saying the labour markets are back where they need to be, but this latest job advance together with the positive revisions are making this look like a normal recovery," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

The health of the economy, especially the job climate, is a major issue in this year's presidential race. The economy has lost almost two million jobs since George W. Bush took office in January 2001.

Friday's report "is more evidence the economy has turned the corner and the nation's job market is getting stronger every month," said Labor Secretary Elaine Chao.

snip>
Jobless workers are increasingly accepting part-time work. The number of people working part-time because they could not find full-time jobs rose to 4.7 million in March, from 4.4 million the previous month.

Retailers added 47,000 jobs last month, as striking California grocery workers accepted a new contract and returned to work.

Employment in health care and social services increased by 36,000 in March, with the industry gaining 255,000 jobs in the past year. Professional and business services added 42,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality payrolls rose by 27,000.

[54anickel]

40. Hmmm, this makes me a bit suspicious. Add this to the timing of that

incredible PPI release, which tended to negate the The National Association of Purchasing Management report from the day before the PPI release which stated:

A feature was the jump in prices paid, to 75.7 from 67.5 in February, as rising prices for energy and many raw commodities start to bite.

"The most worrisome aspect of this report is the extraordinary leap in prices of commodities used in the early stages of production. That indicates the Fed's concerns about deflation are again misplaced," said David Littmann, chief economist with Comerica Bank in Detroit.

Job creation in the Midwest remains sluggish. The employment index slipped to 49.2 from 54.8 in February and has been above 50 only three times since March 2000.

The index for new orders for March dropped to 60.4 from 67.5 in February. Inventories, which are not used to calculate the index, rose to 54.3 from 46.5.

Something is fishy here....:tinfoilhat:

[JNelson6563]

15. Zowie!!

Those were some numbers this morning! Anybody think all those fabulous do-overs reflect the strategy we've been following? You know, the those-numbers-need-a-do-over strategy?

Well this will buy Jr a reprieve, however brief.

Julie

[Maeve]

16. 9:39 and the party has begun

Dow 10,491.71 +118.38 (+1.14%)
Nasdaq 2,054.11 +39.10 (+1.94%)
S&P 500 1,144.73 +12.56 (+1.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.133% +0.235


Gotta go see my Mom--y'all have fun at the Casino--looks like they're comping champagne cocktails all around!

[54anickel]

17. No evidence U.S. jobs data leaked - US Labor Dept

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/04/02/rtr1321841.html

WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Labor Department said on Friday it had no evidence the March paryolls data was leaked ahead of its official release time, as some financial market participants have speculated.

snip>

Ralph Axel, senior vice president and fixed-income strategist at HSBC Securities in New York, said the market started moving around 8:28 a.m. (1328 GMT) -- about two minutes before the surprising gain in March payrolls was officially released by the Labor Department.

"(Treasury Secretary) Snow came out early on and said this is going to be a big number. There seems to have been a leak," Axel said.

[T Roosevelt]

18. So the 103,000 includes the 72,000 returning strikers?

If that's the case, I don't see anything impressive about these numbers...especially since they are below the 140k(?) needed to tread water, and the 306k that the administration forecast...


BTW - love the toon!

[54anickel]

20. Opening Job Market May Spur Large Corporate Turnover of Frustrated Workers

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/8339507.htm

snip>

Career stagnation and backsliding go hand in hand with the worst job market in decades. The US economy generated a paltry 21,000 jobs in February -- the March unemployment report comes out today -- while Massachusetts lost 9,500. For the growing numbers of employees who are unhappy, unchallenged or unsettled at work, it is difficult to escape to a new job and a fresh start that will put their careers back on track.

snip>

But the nation's corporate offices teem with dissatisfied workers. Their feelings of frustration, recruiters say, are heightened by vivid memories of the late-1990s boom, when employment opportunities were plentiful. If hiring picks up this year, as President Bush predicts, corporate turnover is expected to rise.

"There will be an incredible number of job moves by American professionals once the economy and the job market opens up again," said Joseph Daniel McCool, editor of Executive Recruiter News, a monthly newsletter.

An unusually high number of US managerial and executive employees -- 83 percent -- said they would likely seek new employment when the job market improves, and 56 percent of employers said they expect their turnover rates to rise, according to a 2003 survey by the Society for Human Resource Management, a professional organization.

snip>

People "are going to make the move because they've had it," said Jack Mohan, president of Management Recruiters International in Boston. Employees often are "doing the jobs of two, three, four people," said David Sanford, executive vice president of Winter, Wyman & Co., a New England recruiter. "When they say to their bosses, 'I'm underloved and underappreciated," they say, 'tough." "

more...

[tom_paine]

22. If any poor bastards get out of a job based on this Imperial Pravda

That person will be very stunned and sad, indeed.

Anyone who makes a life decision based on "reports" emananting from Commie, Nazi, Ferd Marcos, Idi Amin, Baby Doc, or Bushevik governments simply hasn't been paying attention to whese these people are all about.

Hopefully, the only people who will fall for this are the Freepers/Dittoheads/Brownshirts who richly deserve to shoot themselves in the foot by bailing on jobs for Bushevik Bullshit.

Go to it, Freeps. Thars' gold in them thar hills!

[54anickel]

34. If these numbers are somehow cooked it is also a great disservice

to investors who are making very important decisions with their money based on this. Somewhere I just read that employment service stocks are going up, Treasuries are getting hit big time with advice not to invest in them at all.

If this is yet another lie, more harm will be done to the public yet again to push forward this maladmins adgenda.

On edit add:

Look what he is using this to push:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x459805

[KoKo]

21. Savy Marketeers have probably already seen this but maybe "lurkers"

have missed it. It's interesting that someone not connected with the financial community is verifying much of what many of us here feel about whats going on in our unhealthy economy. Johnson's comments about Empire and our Debt are chilling so I excerpted these comments from the article which is, in itself, is a great read about our failing foreign policy. :hi: All

Interview with Chalmers Johnson. Author of "Blowback" and "Sorrows of Empire."


DR: In your book, Blowback, you also describe how the Asian financial crisis, which infected Brazil and Russia also, was actually caused by U.S. interests in order to weaken the Asian economic tigers and keep them in their place.

Chalmers Johnson: One of the things that worried the United States throughout the 1980s was that it became the world's largest net debtor nation-we owed more money to other people than anybody else-whereas Japan became the world's largest creditor nation. This should have been a signal right then and there to alter this old relationship. We didn't. Instead, the Japanese clung to us more tightly and we enjoyed having them as our satellite in permanent orbit around our foreign policy. Their foreign policy is essentially being dictated to them by Washington D.C. Over time this situation becomes more and more unstable.

We became deeply concerned, however, about the fact that Japan was becoming such a rich and powerful manufacturing country. All you have to do is look at any American parking lot to see what I'm talking about: The kind of enormous competition that Japan offered to the American automobile industry, and the fact that virtually all consumer electronics are made in Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan today.

Therefore, there's no question that we used organizations that are our surrogates, our proxies-the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization-to destabilize various nations in East Asia and to make them subordinate to us.

It was a shocking development for the Asian economic tigers. They've slowly begun to recover from it. South Korea has recovered very nicely. But the legacy it has left is that the United States is considered fickle, bitter, and dangerous, and that an alliance with the United States is probably more costly than it's worth. These attitudes now carry over into places like Argentina, which was formerly the fine pupil of American economic theories; the election of Lula da Silva in Brazil; and the anti-American attitudes caused by the great poverty imposed by the IMF in places like Ecuador and Venezuela.

These attitudes are now hardening. If we look forward and ask when will the American empire start to unravel, I would predict that our military is so strong, I don't really expect it to occur on military grounds, but I think we can expect an economic crisis in the not too distant future. The attempt to dominate the entire globe militarily is an extremely expensive proposition, and we are not in a very good position to do that compared to other empires. The British Empire, on the eve of the First World War, had trade surpluses in the neighborhood of 7 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). They were a rich country and could afford to do what they wanted to do, even make mistakes, like the Boer War in South Africa.

The United States for the last 15 years has had trade deficits that are the largest ever recorded in economic history and today are running at around 5 percent of GDP. The buoyancy of our financial markets-since we save almost nothing in this country-depends almost entirely on capital imports from savings-oriented countries, particularly those in East Asia. Anytime these countries start concluding that the United States is not a safe place to invest or that there are alternatives, such as the emerging European Union, then the United States will find itself in extremely serious trouble with a howling deflation.

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=11&ItemID=5255

[54anickel]

24. Excellent article KoKo! Thanks for posting.

The world view of the IMF, World Bank and the US has become one of my favorite research topics lately. This ties in a bit with what I just posted in #23, with the "Get out of Dodge" advice on Treasury investments.

[KoKo]

28. "Get out of Dodge" was excellent. I even went over to the Pimco site to

read more of what Bill Gross was saying. There are so many warnings going below the radar today. It would be worrysome if some of us don't take it seriously, those of us who are trying to hang onto our wallets and prepare...just in case the gloomiest scenarios play out. :-(

[patcox2]

27. Credible to say "we save almost nothing in this country?"

I mean, really, he paints a picture in which all US investment is foreign, which is absurd. Americans do not have passbook savings accounts, true, but we save a ton and thats the money in the markets, union pension funds, insurance, public employee pension funds, 401-ks, this is all "savings."

Of course it is true that we have a very unhealthy trade deficit and we rely on foreign investment to buy our government securities to fund the deficit. But that is far from saying that all the money in the US markets is foreign investment.

[54anickel]

30. Economics lingo and formulas do not consider those investments

as "savings". Those types of investments are considered assets, not savings when looking at macroeconomics. So yes, it is credible to say we save almost nothing in this country.

[ozymandius]

46. At issue is how this money is being "saved".

The term you use, "savings", is savings in the broadest sense of the word. Every item you list (money in the markets, union pension funds, insurance, public employee pension funds, 401(k)) is kept in the commodities markets. You may find a pawltry amount of cash balances in union pension funds and some public employee pension funds, but little else. The reason being is that the money is required to work harder that any traditional savings plan. Today's return on passbook savings, CDs and money market funds make these option unviable for anyone who is looking to retire on the interest income from these types of accounts.

So one serious about retirement must resign oneself to owning securities through a number of mechanisms: an IRA (typically stocks and bonds), the 401(k), employee/union pension funds (stocks and bonds, again). You might review the Enron scandal (and others) that sucked tremendous amounts of wealth from IRAs, 401(k)s and trade and teacher retirement funds around the country. Lawsuits are pending due to the massive amounts of money lost. The plaintiffs are claiming fraud. No fund was immune from that bubble popping.

Insurance companies are some of the largest real estate holders in the country. So a portion of your life, car and home insurance premiums are often converted into holdings such as these. Insurance companies also hold securities that are traded every day on the markets.

It is true that all money in our system is not foreign investment. However, the money churning through our system is dependent on foreign capital. Our investment banking system would collapse without it. Small businesses would never have enough startup capital due to the intense competition.

EDIT: I forgot to add, though it is no less important than securities, metals and currencies. Both are shelters from the puff pastry magic of the stock market.

In sum, the stock market rules. Every other market, including the many forms of savings acounts, accommodates its behavior.

[54anickel]

47. Thank you Ozy for that great explanation. So glad you made it back!

The insurance companies are a group I tend to over look. Thanks for pointing that out. There are many people that invest in their annuity packages as well. That is a huge amount of money going into the stocks and bonds market.

[ozymandius]

48. Thank you 54anickel. More stuff keeps coming to mind

that I should include in that post. Such as the myriad 529 education plans. We established one for my son and had to make as many choices for his plan as we did for our respective retirement packages. Now that every state has some form of 529 plan, that is a huge sum of cash to be counted among the commodities markets. With many 529s in their infancy - it is typical to see them bearing more stocks and bonds than hard cash assets.

[54anickel]

49. I forgot about those too. Seems if you sit down to think about it for a

while the one thing that becomes clear is that they have done a great job of herding our money from savings to speculative investments. Greater risk for hopefully non-negative returns. Just think of how much more money will be flowing to the markets if Shrub gets his SS reforms through.

[54anickel]

23. Treasuries Have Biggest Drop Since July as Economy Adds Jobs

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a.sMtqBuLcU0&refer=news_index

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes had their biggest drop since July after the economy last month created the most jobs in about four years, raising speculation the Federal Reserve may boost its target interest rate by year-end.

Fed policy makers have cited sluggish job growth and slow inflation as the main reasons for leaving the central bank's benchmark rate at a four-decade low of 1 percent, where it's stood since June. Interest-rate futures show traders are now expecting a rate increase in the fourth quarter.

``It's not a matter of if interest rates are going to go up; it's a matter of when,'' said Kimon Daifotis, head of fixed- income portfolio management at Charles Schwab Investment Management in San Francisco, with about $141 billion in assets. The 10-year note yield may rise to 4.75 percent this year, he said.

big snip>

Investor Sentiment

Investors had been preparing for a strong number. Investors were the most bearish on Treasury notes than they've been in almost seven years, according to the latest weekly poll of clients by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the second-biggest U.S. bank. Five of 100 investors surveyed bet prices will rise, down from 10 in the prior week, J.P. Morgan said.

Last week, bets that Treasury notes will decline rose to the most in 4 1/2 months, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a drop in the note compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- more than doubled to 92,000 as of April 23, from about 40,100 a week earlier and the most since 97,000 on Oct. 14. Futures are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date. The figures reflect holdings in bond-futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said investors should buy ``anything but Treasuries.''

``I recommend getting the hell out of Dodge City, USA, and reinvesting in London and Frankfurt,'' Gross wrote in a monthly commentary published on Newport Beach, California-based Pimco's Web site. ``Construct an ABT portfolio -- Anything But Treasuries.''

Gross said investors should instead put their money in European debt that offers higher yields than U.S. debt. Ten-year German bunds yield 3.95 percent and the comparable U.K. note yields 4.75 percent.

[54anickel]

25. 10:55 update

Dow 10,459.55 +86.22 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,042.06 +27.05 (+1.34%)
S&P 500 1,139.94 +7.77 (+0.69%)
30-yr Bond 4.984% +0.166

NYSE Volume 522,870,000
Nasdaq Volume 793,414,000

10:30AM: Major indices continue to surrender their gains, but this time, with increasing conviction across the board... The Dow has slipped below its 50 day simple moving average, at 10459, and the Nasdaq has fallen beneath a congestive resistance area around 2040/2045 (see Briefing.com's Technical Take, a Platinum Service product, for more information)... The Composite itself is up over 8% from its highs to lows over the past seven sessions, and thus traders have taken some profits despite the strong job growth...
The latter could prove to be a double-edged sword for equities as investors consider the somewhat bearish implications for interest rates... Although it is unlikely the FOMC will tighten over this data due to the small increase in hourly earnings, it is a point that could limit today's gains...NYSE Adv/Dec 1811/1209, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2011/746

9:55AM: Market backs off it surge at the start of trading, but continues to boast a firmly bullish bias... Volume is running ahead of the average for most Fridays, advancers are outpacing decliners by a 4-to-1 margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq, and industry participation is also strong in the uptick... Technology is at the helm of the advance, and has found support in transportation, drug, financial, retail, and biotech... The only areas that have failed to find a bid are interest-rate sensitive issues like homebuilding and gold...

The latter's decline has been exacerbated by the dollar's spike against the euro and yen... Elsewhere, bonds are being slaughtered off the better than expected March employment report... The price on the 10-year note has plummeted 47 ticks, bringing its yield to 4.11%...

[JNelson6563]

26. Oh my achin' T-notes!

Ouch! The term that comes to mind? Bloodletting.

Julie

[Frodo]

53. Probably too late to reply... but

Now is the time to get rid of any longer term treasuries that you don't plan to hold till maturity.

[54anickel]

54. Never too late to reply!

Good to see you again Frodo. :hi:

[Frodo]

55. Been on the road/vacation...

Looks like I missed some "good" news.

My thoughts? (Which I'm sure you've been awaiting with baited breath):

It's about D@mn time!

[54anickel]

56. That you had a vacation? Or the "good" news? Maybe both, heh-heh!

[Frodo]

57. Lol! Good point!

Both. Though when I posted it, I meant the jobs figure.

A third interpretation could be my 401(k) recovering from the correction. I could start to lose sleep...

[54anickel]

29. Stocks Trim Gains at Midmorning Amid Jobs Data Fallout

http://www.quicken.com/investments/news_center/story/?story=NewsStory/dowJones/20040402/ON200404021055000637.var&column=P0DST

A strong jobs report kicked off a bullish session on Wall Street on Friday as excited investors saw the fastest job growth in four years.

But stocks cooled a bit from their initial surge. Midmorning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 77.93 points to 10451.25. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 29.71, or about 1.5%, to 2044.72. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index grew 7.87 to 1140.04.

snip>

"It's very positive news and long overdue. This is the linchpin we've been waiting for to justify this economic recovery," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jeffries & Co. "But an important factor to keep in mind is that one month doesn't make a trend, and there's a lot of volatility in these numbers so we shouldn't be too irrationally exuberant."

Treasury prices plunged. The benchmark 10-year note was down 1 7/8 points to yield 4.1%. Gold prices skidded, too. Gold for June delivery, which recently hit 15-year highs, dropped about $5 to $421.80, but was down close to $10 earlier Friday. The dollar strengthened.

More investors are now betting the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates down the road. Federal-funds futures are pricing in a 100% chance of a quarter-point rate increase in August. The Federal Reserve is next scheduled to meet May 4 to discuss monetary policy.

more...


on edit add:

And here comes the rate hike scare...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1080922481-9e32d306-34538

snip>
"Obviously it was a very solid number but I am more concerned about the implications as regards to the Fed," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "The Fed is likely to raise rates in August, possibly earlier, and markets don't rally during rate hiking cycles." I wouldn't be surprised if we close flat on the day," he added

[KoKo]

31. Your prediction earlier seems to be coming true, "54." Crystal Ball....

is seeing this as signs of "inflation."

[54anickel]

32. 12:08 lunchtime update & great blather

Dow 10,457.78 +84.45 (+0.81%)
Nasdaq 2,046.65 +31.64 (+1.57%)
S&P 500 1,140.46 +8.29 (+0.73%)
30-yr Bond 4.979% +0.161

NYSE Volume 761,017,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,113,078,000

12:00PM : The bulls have made their way back to Wall Street today under the auspices of a March employment report that delivered what so many had been looking for - triple digit job gains... Nonfarm payrolls spiked by 308K - their fastest rate in four years - and effectively made a mockery of the consensus estimate of +123K... Employment in service-producing industries jumped 230K and employment in manufacturing held steady for the first time since August 2000...
The 0.1% rise in the unemployment rate, to 5.7%, and the smaller than expected increase in average hourly earnings were a bit of a surprise considering the robust job growth, but were at the same time a supportive factor in light of the Fed's tendency to look at hourly earnings before making policy changes... Given the slack in the economy, it's fair to say that the Fed should hold off over the near-term... Technology has been at the front of the broad-based rally, bolstered by a 32% year/year increase in February global chip sales according to the World Semiconductor Trade... Financial, drug, biotech, transportation, and retail have also wholeheartedly participated in the buying drive...

A few areas, however, have gotten slammed off the jobs report, and those include homebuilding and gold... The surge in the dollar has been a contributing factor to the latter... Finally, the bond market has also gotten creamed in response to the better than expected data, with the yield on the 10-year note well above 4.0%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1742/1442, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2030/968

11:30AM : Indices continue to hold their own in positive territory, sporting noticeable gains as the market approaches mid-day... The 308K gain in March nonfarm payrolls, along with the upward revisions to January and February nonfarm payrolls, helps put an end to talk of a 'jobless economic recovery'... Granted, the labor market's upturn was a long time coming, but it was inevitable - in Briefing.com's opinion - thanks to the combination of stimulative fiscal and monetary policy...

The 6% growth in real GDP in the second half of last year was not a lark, and would eventually translate into faster hiring...NYSE Adv/Dec 1713/1433, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1556/994

Hmmmm, will briefing.com be eating those words in the near future, or have we truly reached the turning point. We have had articles debating the reality of the GDP growth. We'll have to wait and see.

[JNelson6563]

35. 12:55 Update

Dow 10,476.96 +103.63 (+1.00%)
Nasdaq 2,050.50 +35.49 (+1.76%)
S&P 500 1,142.56 +10.39 (+0.92%)
10-Yr Bond 4.162% +0.26

Holy cow!! 26 basis points on the 10yr! Ugly sell-off there, unnoticed by the cheerleaders I'm sure. I mean, who cares that those who hold our debt are bleeding now? Ugh.

Julie

[54anickel]

36. The financial markets are leveraged for a crash

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/benson040104.html

The only question is when?

The financial press has been noticing that the small investor is still putting massive sums of cash into stock mutual funds, while corporate insiders are, on average, selling like crazy. The average investor, who benefited from increased stock prices through January 2004, is just like the major hedge funds who are sitting on "pins and needles". They have one finger on the buy button and another finger on the sell button and are ready to jump one way or the other at a moment's notice.

We predict that before the spring of 2005, the vast majority of investors and hedge funds will be hitting the sell button. The average investor is constantly told by Wall Street that he is an investor but it is becoming clear, in this market, that there are only speculators. Meanwhile, investors such as Warren Buffet are already sitting on over $32 billion in cash with at least $12 Billion in foreign currencies that benefit from a falling dollar. Why is it, then, that some of the biggest and smartest money managers are already in cash? Don't they know that with Japan buying our 10-year Treasury yield down to 3.75 percent, the United States will have another mortgage REFI boom and there will be great corporate earnings released this April? We expect that Wall Street will be hyping stocks as cheap to the investing sheep.

The problem for the American investor and, consequently, world stock and bond markets, is excess and unsustainable leverage. Stock and bond prices can only be sustained if interest rates are held artificially low. The riskiest stuff such as internet stocks, junk bonds, and emerging markets, have gone up the most in price and are "flying pigs" priced for perfection. The financial markets need constant jolts of new stimulus to keep them up in the air.

The Fed has given our stock and bond markets a major simulative jolt by cutting the Fed funds rate to 1 percent and holding it down even as inflation is starting to "heat up". Whether the Fed likes it or not in this election year, rising inflation will "take the punch bowl away." A major market event seems inevitable. Meanwhile, we wait patiently for the market to tighten, forcing the Fed to follow.

Alan Greenspan has encouraged new credit creation primarily through the borrowing against single family homes to levels that, just a few years ago, could not be contemplated. Currently, our financial system has at least $2 Trillion of mortgages directly financed at 1 percent with Fed Funds and REPO, and the financial system including banks, Wall Street, the GSEs and hedge funds, puts total leveraged finance closer to $10 Trillion. Everything is financed with almost no money down and anyone can get credit. Take a moment to examine the terms you can get today on a new car, home, a mortgage, treasury to junk bonds, commodities and foreign currencies.

more....

[Teaser]

37. I expected a bigger rally off the jobs number

so far it's disappointing.

Any thoughts?

[54anickel]

38. Interesting read, but a bit lengthy

http://www.mladjenovic.com/7-forecasts.htm

Protect & grow your wealth:

7 financial & economic predictions for 2004-2006

By Paul Mladjenovic

It just drives me crazy. I see the pundits on TV or hear them on the radio and I can’t believe what I hear. Let’s face it. In general, most of these pundits -- experts, gurus and authorities-- on the economy and the financial markets are clueless. Now, don’t get me wrong. That professional money manager talking about the stock market probably knows that market inside and out. The guru that tells you everything is great in the “X” industry or sector is probably very knowledgeable about that particular corner of the investment world. Yet, these commentators are consistently wrong when they try to figure out what the future will hold for investors and other parties interested in that area. Why? Primarily because they don’t have enough information or expertise in understanding the interrelationship of markets, geopolitical considerations, the general economy, human behavior and good old- fashioned logic. All of these things comprise the investing environment since no investment exists in a vacuum. I don’t make forecasts in my writing, consulting and public speaking venues until I feel that I have done enough research in these other diverse areas. I don’t make forecasts about the stock market until I see as many areas as possible that have a tangible and direct bearing on the stock market (or that individual stock or industry).



Since January 2000, forecasts that I have made in my public venues have so far been on target. Just in case you haven’t been to my investing seminars or otherwise been privy to my research, here’s’s the most important forecasts that were made in 1999-2002…



* The Bear Market of 2000
* The Recession of 2001
* The dollar will experience a major fall for 2002-2003
* Gold going up during 2001-2004
* Silver going up during 2002-2004
* The projected federal budget surpluses (in 2000) will become a huge deficit
* 2003 will be a record year for bankruptcies
* State & local government financial mismanagement will result in higher taxes
* Government payrolls will exceed manufacturing payrolls
* Tax audits will increase significantly due to government revenue shortfalls
* Foreclosures will start climbing in 2003

No, I don’t think I had any special insight or some crystal ball regarding the above events. There are many that I feel do a far better job than I of figuring out the possibilities that may unfold in the world of high finance in the near-term. I actually thought that those events were easy to see coming. Before 2000, I made a forecast or two that blew up in my face. Why? Because I didn’t do a complete analysis and it humbled me. In other words, I became my own best example of what happens when you become clueless in an area where you don’t have the relevant expertise coupled with meaningful information. Failure indeed enhances your success.

more...

[54anickel]

39. 2:05 update

Dow 10,466.15 +92.82 (+0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,052.63 +37.62 (+1.87%)
S&P 500 1,141.52 +9.35 (+0.83%)
30-yr Bond 4.976% +0.158

NYSE Volume 1,079,234,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,530,374,000

[JNelson6563]

42. 3:09 update

Dow 10,430.67 +57.34 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,047.11 +32.10 (+1.59%)
S&P 500 1,137.59 +5.42 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.138% +0.240

24 basis pts!!! 24!!!

Ugh.

Julie

[54anickel]

41. 3:08 update

Dow 10,431.86 +58.53 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 2,047.41 +32.40 (+1.61%)
S&P 500 1,137.59 +5.42 (+0.48%)
30-yr Bond 4.972% +0.154

NYSE Volume 1,286,858,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,777,547,000

3:00PM: Stocks pull back in much of the same manner they did earlier this morning... Some of today's strongest groups, like technology and financial, have fallen off their highs and have contributed to the market's decent... The Nasdaq, however, is still leading the other indices in terms of performance... At this point, the Composite is up 1.5% versus 0.4% and 0.5% for the S&P 500 and Dow, respectively... Next week, investors will face a holiday-shortened week (Friday the market is closed for Good Friday) that should offer more in the way of earnings as the March quarter earnings season starts up...
Dow component Alcoa (AA 35.87 +1.24) gets things going Tuesday after the close...SOX +2.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1694/1608, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2057/1105

[ozymandius]

43. Good afternoon folks! Glad to be back with numbers and blather.

Dow 10,442.23 +68.90 (+0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,049.67 +34.66 (+1.72%)
S&P 500 1,138.96 +6.79 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.137% +0.239

U.S. stocks rally on jobs data

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks traded higher Friday, but off their best levels for the session, as a stronger-than-expected March employment report reassured investors that the economic recovery was on track.

The growth in jobs, which beat expectations for the first time in five months, was strong enough that investors ignored warnings from numerous economists that the data may prompt the Federal Reserve to rethink its accommodative interest rate policy.

Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics said the data showed that jobs growth was strong, and upward revisions to past numbers made the upward trend look more durable.

more

So should we cheer the Fed to raise interest rates?

[54anickel]

44. Heh! From what I've been gleaning it seems they are already

lining up the excuses for the Fed to continue to be patient. :shrug:

[54anickel]

45. Should You Still Be a Bull?

http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/040401/27b436ef5508eaaffcdb6c85077d2569_1.html

Professor Jeremy Siegel (optimist) and money manager Robert Arnott (pessimist) debate the market's future


Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the Wharton School and author of Stocks for the Long Run, has a predisposition to think things are going up. But he is no one-note Johnny. After being very right with his bullish bent in the 1990s, he authored an extremely well-timed essay in the Wall Street Journal in March 2000, saying that the prices of tech favorites like Cisco and Sun Microsystems had simply gotten out of hand. They proceeded to crash. At a Forbes conference on Oct. 10, 2002, he was very bullish--put your retirement money in stocks, not bonds, he said. Good timing again: The market is up 44%.

Now what? Siegel, 58, is still a bull, albeit a restrained one. But he might be wrong this time. To get a debate going we pitted him against an unabashed bear, Robert Arnott. Arnott, 49, is chairman of First Quadrant, a Pasadena, Calif. investment firm that manages $18 billion, and chairman of Research Affiliates, subadviser to Pimco's All Asset Fund and editor of the Financial Analysts Journal. In a series of influential articles Arnott has argued that future gains on stocks will disappoint. Severely.

more...

[KoKo]

50. Very interesting as always "54" I always assume that "weekenders" come

here for their "financial library" and to catch up on the "financial world of "Reality and Real Numbers."

I think OZY (who greets us with New&Toons), You, UIA's, Julie, Coventina, Maeve, Frodo (where is he?) Rad (when she's around), and the others like me who check in from time to time and the "lurkers" owe so much to you guys, for getting us through all this from the "financial" which has so much to do with the "political" angle.. :toast:

And, I'm sure I overlooked some, but I haven't been over hear so long that I can catch everyone...:toast:

[54anickel]

52. Hi KoKo,

On behalf of all the Marketeers, thank you very much.

Back atcha :toast:

Hope everyone has a great weekend.

[KoKo]

51. Well, as a "boomer" I guess I'd better get out there and plant "them"

trees goldarnit, so "them" folks can harvest it and I can git me some "truckloads o' greenbacks." TIMBER! TIMBER! TIMBER!

And when I finish cuttin' down my Suthin' Haaardddwoods and that Piney Stuff, I can import me some "Brazilian" stuff for my new McMansion I made of "them trees" I sent to "them" third worlds countrees...Man o' Man ain't life grand for us "en-tree-pre-noor's." :toast:

(forgive my dialect corruption and silliness) :D