New Hays Poll Puts Miller in Third

[Blue_In_AK]

Source: Anchorage Daily News

New polling from Hays Research purports to show Joe Miller has plummeted to third place in Alaska's race for the Senate, with Lisa Murkowski the apparent frontrunner followed closely by Scott McAdams.

The Anchorage firm’s poll of 500 likely voters found that 34 percent said they would vote for a write-in candidate (Lisa Murkowski’s name was not mentioned, but presumably she is who most people meant.)

Twenty-nine percent said they would vote for Democratic nominee Scott McAdams and just 23 percent favored Republican nominee Miller. The poll listed 13 percent undecided.

The Hays poll was paid for by IBEW Local 1547. The IBEW endorsed McAdams in the race and the results of the new poll were first published on the blog Mudflats, which is promoting McAdams hard.

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Read more: http://community.adn.com/adn/node/153984

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I don't put a lot of stock in polls, but this particular one seems to more accurately reflect what I'm seeing here on the ground. I can't get on Mudflats this morning -- apparently her server is overloaded -- but I'll post her take on the poll as soon as I can get in there.

[Aramchek]

1. so it's McAdams vs a Write-in? I say he pulls it off.

[Blue_In_AK]

2. That's the hope.

He looked great in last night's public TV debate. Lisa was all over the place trying to look like a moderate, but Scott kept coming back to her voting record, which is 90% with the Republican leadership. She really does want to have it both ways, and won't take a clear position on any hot-button issue at all, saying that "everything is on the table." That's pretty weasly, if you ask me.

Joe, of course, was Joe.

[pattmarty]

8. "Joe, of course, was Joe", which means batshit fucking insane.

[ProudDad]

28. Ya' mean

'cause so many Alaskans can't read or write?

and Murkowski is hard to spell...

:rofl:

[Blue_In_AK]

31. Murkowski got a break today.

The Supreme Court ruled this afternoon that for the first time ever, a list of write-ins will be made available in the polling stations for anyone who asks for write-in assistance, but no party affiliations will be shown. In protest, a bunch of teabaggers went to the Division of Elections yesterday and registered as write-ins, over 160 of them. :rofl:

I keep telling people to avoid the drama and just vote for Scott, who is an infinitely better candidate than either of the other two.

[Imajika]

3. This is a partisan poll though..

"The Hays poll was paid for by IBEW Local 1547"

It could be accurate, but it would be necessary to see similar results from some other pollsters.

I do think Miller's campaign is reeling though. He definitely might be going down the tubes.

[ProudDad]

29. All polls are partisan

and can be rigged to say whatever one wants...

(Rasmussen ring a bell?)

I would suspect that the AFL-CIO would want to hire a polling company that can reflect more of a reality...

[Cognitive_Resonance]

4. It was great to see the scene within the McAdams campaign office on Tuesday--

Wall-to-wall volunteers making GOTV calls. With McAdams moving into second place the Democrats who have been behind Murkowski as the lessor-of-two-evils now have a compelling case to come home and vote for Scott McAdams. He can and will win. The shock waves within the GOP are going to be off the chart.

http://www.scottmcadams.org/

[Blue_In_AK]

5. Joe Miller is so ethically challenged that only the most

avid (and stupid) followers could vote for him with a clear conscience. As I said, from what I've seen, Scott's got the momentum. Lisa's write-in campaign faces a lot of challenges, simply because it IS a write-in campaign. Also we keep pointing out that Lisa votes with the Republicans 90% of the time, so sending her back to DC is really no different than sending Crazy Joe. The votes would be the same.

[jmowreader]

20. I don't think sending Murkowski is the same as sending Crazy Joe

The only reason teabaggers want to become Senators is so they can filibuster EVERYTHING that has to do with spending money, especially if the president is supporting it, and so they can vote "aye" on any attempt to impeach a Democrat. Murkowski is slightly less radical than that.

[Jim__]

6. Good news! But, there's a large margin of error and a large group of ...

undecided in that poll. Let's hope it holds up.

[Blue_In_AK]

7. I still can't get on Mudflats, but here's a repost at Huffington

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/akmuckraker/new-alaska-poll---democra_b_775174.html

A new poll conducted by Hays Research confirms what we already intuitively know. Alaska U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller's candidacy is in big trouble.

The percentage of Alaskans who feel either "somewhat negative" or "very negative" about Miller has skyrocketed in recent weeks to an astronomical 68 percent. Only 8 percent feel "somewhat negative" and the remainder, a jaw-dropping 60 percent, feel "very negative" about Miller as a candidate.

A series of gaffes, inconsistencies, and controversial statements to the press, in addition to the arrest of a journalist by Miller security guards have come one on top of another, causing a trend that can only be described as a campaign death spiral. Miller's hardcore supporters who view him "very favorably" have held in there, showing a decrease of only 3 percent since Oct. 6, but his "somewhat favorable" rating went from 20 percent to 9 percent in that time. Miller's "somewhat unfavorable" rating dipped from 13 percent to 8 percent, underscoring the voter stampede toward "very unfavorable" which skyrocketed from 38 percent to 60 percent in less than three weeks.

<snip>

Check out Joe Miller's negatives -- a whopping 68%!

[Cirque du So-What]

9. It's hard to believe Miller was ever anyplace BUT in the cellar

A combination of low-info voters, a complicit/compliant corporate media & unscrupulous pollsters tried their damndest to create a Potemkin village of a vibrant teabagger 'movement.' After Nov. 2, we'll see that 'movement' circle the bowl one last time before heading off to that big sewage treatment plant in the sky.

Same goes for the rest of the over-hyped teabagger specimens nationwide.

[Arctic Dave]

10. Scott! Scott! Scott!

[totodeinhere]

11. This is bad news because Murkowski has already said that she will caucus with the GOP if elected.

That's why money from the Republican Senatorial Committee is paying for ads that attack McAdams without mentioning either Miller or Murkowski. They will be happy if either wins.

But I still think that this race is wide open and McAdams might pull it off.

[Blue_In_AK]

13. If you analyze the Hays poll

(which was very fair, by the way) and follow the trend, Lisa and Scott are virtually tied at the end. It's very likely that some Murkowski votes will be thrown out because of the inherent dangers in a write-in. I think Scott has an excellent chance.

[pattmarty]

14. Since in particularly this election we have been talking about how people.........

......must vote because of bad is still better than worse thinking, Murkowski is still eons better than Miller. Miller is a Fascist Neanderthal, Murkowski is merely a Neanderthal.

[Blue_In_AK]

15. We call them "Miller" and "Miller Lite" here.

Pretty accurate description, given Lisa's voting record. She's the sane one who always votes the wrong way.

[totodeinhere]

21. The idea is to get a Democrat elected to that seat.

A lot of heads would explode if a red state like Alaska were represented by two Democratic senators.

[Blue_In_AK]

24. It very well could happen.

The politicians we've liked best in our history are the ones we've felt we could trust. There have been Republicans and Democrats in that category who all true Alaskans could respect. In this election cycle, both Miller and Murkowski have been caught in lies. Miller's have been more spectacular, but Lisa has lied about endorsements in her flyers, she's appealed to base sexism urging women to vote for her because "we've all had bullies like Joe Miller in our lives" (as she voted for Roberts and Alito and AGAINST Sotomayor and Kagan). It's disgusting pandering. She won't give any straight answers because she's trying so hard to win both sides, but we know her voting record.

Scott's got an ad that says, "Lisa's changed," and it's the sad, sad truth. She's no friend to Democrats and she's no friend to Alaska as she votes against bill after bill that would help Alaska's families.

[lobodons]

12. Palin v. Murkowski feud

This feud could help McAdams in that no way will lost Miller voters vote for Murkowski and will support McAdams so that she will not win. If it becomes clear Miller cannot win with these problems coming to light. Its a long shot, but a shot nonetheless.

[burning rain]

16. Fail whale gonna drag Ahab down to Davy Jones' locker.

Fail whale comin' for ya, Joe Miller!

[burning rain]

17. Fail whale gonna drag Ahab down to Davy Jones' locker.

Fail whale comin' for ya, Joe Miller!

[piggy2000]

18. Rachel Maddow Interview

Did you see that Rachel Maddow interview? Miller just seemed like a mean guy with a big chip on his shoulder. He was dismissive and disrespectful. I'm sure this gave an insight as to how he would be as a Senator.

He is only trying to ride the endorsement of the created celebrity of Palin to a victory. His warped view of the Constitution is dangerous, and he does not deserve to win. Please, Alaska!! Please do not vote for him!

[Pab Sungenis]

19. You called this two weeks ago when every major poll had Miller ahead by a mile.

My hat is off to you as an observer and prognosticator.

[totodeinhere]

22. Well, don't pop the champagne corks yet.

That poll looks better than previous polls but it's still within the margin of error.

[Blue_In_AK]

25. Nobody's popping corks,

but we're pretty happy about it. Scott's definitely got the momentum, and he's got ALL the good buzz. Everyone's getting tired of the other two and all the drama, and they see Scott as the patient and kindly adult in the room overseeing a couple of two-year-olds. He's so much more likable than either Lisa or Joe.

[saltpoint]

23. Recommended, with thanks and

enthusiasm!

:hi:

Go, Scott!

[Blue_In_AK]

26. You know me, OC.

When I find candidates I like, I work like hell for them in my small ways. The others? They're on their own. :)

[saltpoint]

27. McAdams draws a classy crowd,

the OP pointedly included.

I say keep up the good work.

:thumbsup:

[Melinda]

30. Gotta have graphs: ;-)

And now we know why Mudflats server is on overload ;)

[Ter]

32. Is Hays major?

Gonna hold off until I see one from a polling company I've heard of. If it's similar, I healthfully apologize, but I'm skeptical.