NYT:(Job) Numbers a Relief to Republicans, But Fears Remain

[DeepModem Mom]

Numbers a Relief to Republicans, but Fears Remain
By ROBIN TONER and EDMUND L. ANDREWS

Published: April 3, 2004


....This Friday, with the announcement that employment grew by 308,000 jobs last month, relief among the Republicans was almost palpable. Mr. Bush was beaming when he took the stage yesterday in Huntington, W. Va., and declared, "The economy is growing and people are finding work."...

***

In fact, many analysts say, two major uncertainties still weigh heavily on Mr. Bush's political prospects. First, do the new job numbers represent the start of an enduring trend? Second, will people actually feel better about their prospects by election time in November, or is their anxiety rooted in something deeper than the unemployment rate?

In the short term, the report clearly came at a bad time for Senator John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, who has stepped up his criticism of Mr. Bush's employment record in television advertising and on the campaign trail in recent days. Mr. Bush's jobs record has been considered a crucial vulnerability in this fall's election; some of the most competitive battleground states have been hard hit by job losses....

***

Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster, (said): "The economic question for voters is not about jobs per se but about good jobs with benefits that support a thriving middle class." Democrats will make the case that the underlying problems remain, from the loss of manufacturing jobs to the impact of soaring health care costs on middle-class Americans. They also noted that most of the jobs created last month were low-paying jobs in the service sector....


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/03/business/03jobs.html

[althecat]

1. Are The Gobs Of Jobs Here Or There? - Figs not what they seem

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0404/S00029.htm
Are The Gobs Of Jobs Here Or There?

by PATRICIA JOHNSON
WOW! U.S. non-farm employment rose by 308,000 for March while January and February 2004 figures were revised (click here) by 159,000 and 46,000, respectively. Now that we’ve heard the oohs and aahs, let’s get down to the looking at the real numbers.

The civilian labor force (Household Data) increased by 179,000 from 146.471 million in February to 146.650 million in March, which is comprised of the following:

-A decrease in employment on the Household Data of (3,000)
-An increase in the number of unemployed persons of 182,000

The number of persons employed in the US, per the Household Data Survey went from 138.301 million in February to 138.298 million in March, which indicates that 3,000 fewer people were employed during the month of March than in the month of February.

The number of unemployed persons, per the Household Data Survey, increased from 8.170 million in February to 8.352 million in March. So, while we’re all cheering about the possible ½ million new jobs created over the past three months, another 182,000 people are out of work.

The reason I used the word possible ½ million new jobs is simple. For some reason the BLS is using preliminary figures for both the month of February 2004 and the month of March 2004.

Let’s take a look at these “preliminary” figures and see if we can determine what’s happening.

[cryofan]

5. wow! That is a great article. Note that it is a New Zealand publication

THe American press seems to be whitewashing the job figures. THey are trying to prevent a collapse in investor confidence, I suspect.

[Chitown_Dem]

8. Good article

I was hoping someone would parse the numbers.

[radfringe]

2. fuzzy math

my fuzzy math says he's still about 2,900,000 jobs short of breaking even

and if you add/subtract the recent layoff announcements.. well, looks to me like hocus-POTUS with the numbers, jobs may be created in one place, but lost in other places... smoke and mirrors

here's just a few of those---

Texas finishes second on mass-layoff list
http://houston.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2004/03/29/daily12.html
Texas ranked second in the nation in mass layoffs in February, as 52 employers across the state laid off 4,062 employees.
New figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that 941 U.S. companies announced mass layoffs last month, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits. A total of 84,201 U.S. workers were affected.

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Johnson Controls to layoff 885 Michigan employees, shifting sun visor production to Mexico
March 29, 2004, 6:12 PM
http://www.freep.com/news/statewire/sw95327_20040329.htm
HOLLAND, Mich. (AP) -- Automotive supplier Johnson Controls Inc. says it is transferring sun visor production from its plants here and in Glasgow, Ky. to a Mexican factory, resulting in 885 layoffs in Michigan.

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Boeing to announce layoff figures today
by JOHN M. ROMAN , [e-mail] 03/26/2004
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?BRD=1675&dept_id=18171&newsid=11182461&PAG=461&rfi=9

Boeing Co. today is expected to announce the number of layoffs as a result of the Army’s cancellation a month ago of the $39 billion contract for the Comanche helicopter program.
However, a Boeing spokesman Thursday said the company’s engineers will still be working on five technical areas of the RAH-66 Comanche helicopter’s electronics systems.

"We are issuing layoff notices that are effective tomorrow (today)," said Jack Satterfield, but he wouldn’t disclose the number until extending the courtesy of sitting down with the affected employees.

--------

Prime TV Layoff May Affect 200
http://www.thepilot.com/news/032804PrimeTV.html
BY MATTHEW MORIARTY: Staff Writer

Calling itself “a casualty of what has become a fiercely competitive battle in the satellite broadcast TV industry,” Aberdeen-based Prime TV abruptly ordered a massive layoff Friday.

Prime TV is a sister company of the Gatelinx Corp. and is located within the Gatelinx offices in the former Winn Dixie building on U.S. 1.

Richard L. Yelver-ton III, attorney for the normally publicity-shy Prime TV, declined to say how many of the company’s 400-plus employees would lose their jobs. But an employee who asked not to be identified told The Pilot that about 200 people had been laid off.

[revcarol]

You left out the 2000 job elimination #, now that Fleet Boston and

Bank of America are one.

[radfringe]

6. didn't forget

the ones I posted were ones announced in the past couple of weeks

just go to google news and type in layoffs... long list

[Garion_55]

3. Most of the 300,000 were part time jobs????

is that what im reading? i mean, part time is better than no time i guess but if it is true, i wouldnt be crowing too much right now if i were a bush supporter.


"It is too early to celebrate," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo in Minneapolis.

He noted that most of the increase was because of part-time workers. The number of people who worked part time for economic reasons rose to 4.7 million in March, up from 4.4 million the previous month.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20040402-1327-economy.html

Chatters wanted!!! Come join in on the humiliating of conservatives! http://www.sfwest.com/BostonTeaParty.html

[radfringe]

4. more here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1337047

[Media_Lies_Daily]

7. More crap from the Champions of Crap.

[jmcgowanjm]

9. Leak: Dollar move over by 830 release of jobs data

I love charts.

I don't believe in the concept of insider info.

But for those who do, you were screwed yesterday.

http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=DXM4&data=Z30&jav=adv&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&late=y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=