STOCK MARKET WATCH , Monday 5 April

[ozymandius]

Monday April 5, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 293
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 115 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 168 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 381
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 864
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 2, 2004

Dow... 10,470.59 +97.26 (+0.94%)
Nasdaq... 2,057.17 +42.16 (+2.09%)
S&P 500... 1,141.81 +9.64 (+0.85%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.14% +0.24 (+6.21%)
Gold future... 422.50 -6.30 (-1.47%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood - THE DOW REPORT

Psychology of the Crowd vs. Dow Theory and Technical Analysis

In July 2001 I wrote an article that was later published in the November issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine. In this article I forecasted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would move below 7,400 in late 2002. At the time of this analysis the DJIA was at approximately 10,500. It was November 2002 before the article could make it through the pipeline and into print. By September 2001, the market had dropped to near 8,000. By the time the analysis appeared in November, the DJIA had recovered and was well over 9,000. People were arguing that the worst was over. We had seen the bottom. The article was discounted by many. After all, common knowledge was that the bottom had been seen. Sound analysis that was based in fact and statistical probability was useless bunk. In October 2002 this forecast came to be. As it turned out, the analysis was proven to be right and the collective wisdom of the masses once again was proven to be in error.

In the spring 2002 issue of Traders World Magazine, I forecasted that the CRB Index would find its 3-year cycle low in early 2002. I also forecasted that the Dollar was topping and that when the intermediate term cycle that was then at play topped we would have the 4-year cycle top in the Dollar. With commodity prices as depressed as they were at the time and the Dollar as high as it was, this forecast too was discounted by many. The popular delusion of the day seemed to call for a strong Dollar and weaker commodities. However, sound analysis once again won out as we all now know what has happened since that time.

<cut>
I have been pounding the table ever since the rally out of the March 2003 low began, that it was a bear market rally. I wrote an article which appeared in the October 2002 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine showing what to expect once the 4-year cycle low appeared. I explain that most would proclaim it to be a new bull market. I gave statistical relationships of previous bull and bear markets and showed what our expectation for this bear market should be. In my newsletter and articles I have used ideas and thoughts related to history, Dow theory and other technical studies to help the reader to understand the current conditions of the market. Just as Schaefer was called a “Perpetual Bull,” I have found myself and the few others that have warned of current market conditions called “Perma Bears” and even worse.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

3. Good Morning Ozy and all.

Loved this quote from the article, some things just never change. The crowd Psychology has truly played out recently, not only in the markets but in the weeks and months building up to the Iraq war. I suppose the next thing this maladministration will try is to label those who question the sustainability of this "recovery" as unpatriotic. :eyes:

Mr. Schaefer quotes French sociologist, Gustave Le Bon who once said, “The masses live by, and are ruled by, subconscious and emotional thought process. The crowd has never thirsted for the truth. It turns aside from evidence that is not to its taste, preferring to glorify and to follow error, if the way of error appears attractive enough, and seduces them. Whoever can supply the crowd with attractive emotional illusions may easily become their master; and whoever attempts to destroy such firmly entrenched illusions of the crowd is almost sure to be rejected.”

My time on the board will be limited this week as we finally get around to working on those replacement doors!

This morning I must head back down to the windy city to pick up "hubby's niece".

It's another beautiful sunny day, perfect for another road trip!

"Nothing but highway in front of me, nothing behind me but history. Everything I need to know is breakin' thru the radio." - Ellis Paul

Hope everyone has a great day at the market. :hi:

[54anickel]

2. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 88.80 Change +0.29 (+0.33%)

Settle 88.51 Settle Time 23:36
Open 88.65 Previous Close 88.51
High 88.85 Low 88.49


Dollar Advances; U.S. Services Industry Growth May Accelerate
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aT.LqqjwueT4&refer=us

April 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the euro to close to its highest in four months on speculation a U.S. industry report will show growth in services industries accelerated last month.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management's services index probably rose in March after slipping from a record pace a month earlier, according to the median of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A similar index for the euro region is expected to fall. The reports may back speculation that U.S. interest rates are headed higher, while those in the euro area are headed lower.

``There are less and less arguments to buy euros,'' after Friday's U.S. employment report showed the biggest increase in jobs since April 2004, said Ian Gunner, head of currency research in London at Mellon Financial Corp. The euro may fall below $1.20 this week, he said.

snip>
Euro `Less Attractive'

The euro-region's report may also fuel speculation that the European Central Bank will lower its 2 percent benchmark interest rate. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet on Saturday said interest rates may not stay ``fixed'' at their current level, already the lowest in more than half a century.

``The ECB is still trying to get its head around the fact it may have to lower rates,'' said Robert Rennie, currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp. ``The Fed is going to have to start raising rates. The euro is much less attractive than it was on Friday.''

A narrower gap between U.S. and European interest rates would undercut the attraction of buying euros. Demand for the dollar declined from June last year, when the Fed reduced the federal funds rate to 1 percent, half the ECB's benchmark rate and the lowest since 1958.

Demand for Yen

Trichet was blocked in a policy meeting Thursday by Dutch and German ECB members from cutting interest rates, the U.K. newspaper Daily Telegraph said.

Gains in the dollar against the yen may be limited by speculation that a strengthening economic recovery in the world's second-largest economy will keep luring overseas investors to buy yen to plow money into Japanese shares.

Japan's economy probably grew by almost 3 percent in the fiscal year ended March 31, compared with 1.2 percent a year ago, Economy Minister Heizo Takenaka said yesterday. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1.2 percent today, and is up 12 percent so far in 2004. Investors from outside Japan have been net buyers of stocks every week except one this year.

``The yen is under continued pressure to appreciate on the back of an capital inflow from overseas,'' said Junya Tanase, a currency analyst in Tokyo at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo.

more...


Dollar up, gold mixed in Europe
http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/business/index.ssf?/newsflash/get_story.ssf?/cgi-free/getstory_ssf.cgi?f0005_BC_Dollar-Gold&&news&newsflash-financial


LONDON (AP) -- The U.S. dollar was higher Monday morning against most other major currencies in European trading. Gold prices were mixed.

The euro was quoted at $1.2095, down from $1.2116 Friday.

snip>

Gold dealers in London fixed a recommended price of $420.55 bid per troy ounce at midmorning, up from $419.00 on Friday. In Zurich the bid was $419.35, down from $422.18. Hong Kong financial institutions, including the gold and stock markets, were closed Monday for a public holiday.

Silver opened in London at $8.25 bid per troy ounce, up from $8.17.



Global trade recovery still fragile, says WTO
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=565&fArticleId=393669

Geneva - A weak dollar and buoyant activity in China helped global trade grow last year, but uncertainty about the US and European economies coupled with volatile oil prices could dampen prospects of further expansion, the World Trade Organisation said Monday.

In its annual assessment of trade flows, the WTO said world trade expanded by a higher-than-expected 4.5 percent in 2003, marking the second consecutive year of growth since it suddenly slumped in 2001.

Trade flows, however, remain below an average level of 6.7 percent achieved during the 1990s.

World merchandise exports rose by 16 percent to $7.3 trillion and service exports climbed 12 percent to $1.8 trillion, the highest annual increases in nominal terms.

"Clearly currency movements are part of this story, the weaker dollar and strengthened euro and yen to some extent," said Patrick Low, the Geneva-based WTO's chief economist.

The WTO predicted growth in global trade could return to 1990s' levels this year, with an increase of 7.5 percent forceast if the growth in gross domestic product worldwide reaches 3.7 percent.


But it warned the projections were risky, because of "the possibility of slower than expected import growth in the United States and a faltering in demand recovery in western Europe."
The unpredictable price of oil, which is projected to fall in 2004, was also a factor, the WTO said.

more...



GLOBAL MARKETS-Interest rate nerves unsettle investors
http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2004/04/05/rtr1323187.html

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - Uncertainty about the prospects for interest rates left investors unsettled on Monday after last week's buoyant U.S. jobs data persuaded many that the world's biggest economy was no longer in danger of stalling.

The dollar got a boost against major currencies but European stocks were only slightly higher and demand for government debt focused on the euro zone and away from U.S. bonds.

Wall Street looked set for a soft start after some indices climbed sharply on Friday.

Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data -- a surprisingly high 308,000 -- remained a focus, easing investors' concerns that a lack of jobs could undermine consumer confidence but raising the likelihood of higher U.S. interest rates.

"The payrolls data resolves the big puzzle and the big worry over the U.S. outlook. It means the (U.S. Federal Reserve) can now consider raising rates at some stage," said Aziz McMahon, currency strategist at ABN AMRO.

Higher rates and a sustainable economy would tend to support the dollar and drive demand away from U.S. bonds. It would also offer mixed blessing to equity markets.

more...

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning and goodbye all.

Sorry to run so soon but my son needs to see the doctor.

Back when I can.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

5. Hey, what happened to those futures? Not much in the blather -

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. At its lowest level of the morning, the futures market is pointing to a relatively flat to slightly lower open for the cash market.
8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures indications have slipped since the last update, with the Nasdaq futures now trading slightly below fair value and S&P futures trading marginally above fair value. Accordingly, the cash market is looking to a relatively flat and possibly mixed open for the cash market, with technology sectors underperforming their blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis. Some of the hesitancy going into today's session could be tied to Friday's sizeable gains ranging 0.9-2.1% for the major averages.

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. There are no economic reports in the pre-open session, although the ISM Services report will be announced at 10ET. The futures market continues to trade within a short distance of fair value, pointing to a relatively flat to slightly higher open for the cash market. Upward guidance from SEBL and CI have not incited broad-based buying efforts on the heels of Friday's sizeable gains.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. The futures market is basically unchanged, but is trading above fair value. The fractionally positive bias comes on the heels of Friday's much better than expected Employment report and a rally in the major averages spanning 0.9-2.1%. Trade in the overseas markets is mixed, although the Nikkei closed higher by 1.2%.

[54anickel]

6. Here's a bit more -

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/8359284.htm

U.S. Stocks Set to Open Lower

Associated Press


NEW YORK - U.S. stocks are set to open lower Monday, with market watchers suggesting that investors will take advantage of Friday's better-than-expected employment numbers to engage in some profit-taking.

snip>

In corporate news, Altria Group Inc.'s Philip Morris International would pay $250 million within 60 days of signing a deal with the European Union Commission that aims to avoid lawsuits over allegations it colluded in cigarette smuggling, a person close to the case told Dow Jones Newswires on Monday. The person also said Philip Morris would pay another $150 million after a year and another $100 million a further 12 months later. The total would be $1 billion over 12 years.

snip>

No major companies are reporting Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management is expected to report its survey of nonmanufacturing activity reading at 10 a.m. Monday. Economists are looking for a reading of 61.2 in March, just above the 60.8 reading in February.

[54anickel]

7. Yogi's Take on Those "308,000" Jobs

http://205.232.90.194/editorials/ackerman/current.html

Trading Notes: Thank goodness we were not among the whack-o's mixing it up when yesterday's employment-news Molotov hit the tape. Precious metals stocks, bonds, currencies and a host of other tradables that are quite literally hard-wired to the sources of such news went bonkers for a short while. When the dust had settled an hour later, the histrionics appeared to have been somewhat more detrimental to investors whose capital is tied to hard assets ratter than to assets of the digital persuasion.

We watched the whole drill at a safe distance from the mayhem it caused, since the only trade with which we had deigned to intercept the trend - a tightly stopped short in Comex May silver - had its moment of truth, or rather of abstention - when silver blew past our pivot at an hour when most of us who live in the Western Hemisphere were sawing logs.

Atkins Diet and Inflation

And what of the 308,000 jobs that allegedly were added to the domestic payroll last month? Should it matter that neither you nor I know a single new hiree? Of course not. Everyone understands by now that such statistics are just make-believe, just as we understand, from evidence that virtually engulfs each of us every day, that consumer inflation is not nearly so tame as the government's statisticians and spinmeisters would have us believe. In case you hadn't noticed, such staples as milk, eggs and meat seem to be enjoying a faddish and unusually strong revival that might account in part for their upwardly spiraling prices. But I don't recall anything in the Atkins diet that should have helped to push then price of crude toward $40 a barrel.

Anyway, I've explained here many times before why we shouldn't get too worked up about whether the impending statistic-of-the-week will be bullish or bearish for the stock market. The spasmodic reaction of some financial markets to yesterday's employment news was neither a bullish nor bearish indicator, but rather a frenzied and ultimately futile attempt in the trading pits of the world's bourses to guess exactly how, in the micro-moment, all the other headless chickens might react. As Yogi Berra might have observed, all of those chickens seemed not have their heads screwed on tight.

more...

On edit, here's one more analysis article -

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/mchugh040304.html

This week the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 257.62 points to close the week at 10,470.59, as forecast by last week's Short-term Technical Indicator Index reading of positive 73.00. The Shortterm TII has been accurate all but two weeks in 2004, and the two weeks it was off, it was accurate within its two week horizon. The rally was the expected bounce we've been calling for when we laid out the probability that the decline that took the Dow Industrials down to about 10,000 on March 24th, "would be followed by a rally back up to the 50 day moving averages."

We expect this rally to fizzle around the 50 day MA, or maybe a hair above it, and do not expect new highs to be reached. In the DJIA, the 10,753 intraday high on February 19th and the closing high of 10,737 on February 11th, 2004 should hold. If they don't, it will be due to the massive liquidity pumping we have been witnessing since the first of the year. That kind of M-3 growth has to go somewhere, and to the delight of the Master Planners, like water that finds a crack, massive fiat currency creation finds equities - for a while.

snip>

The Economy

A mixed bag this week. The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS reported this week that U.S. Chain Store Sales decreased 1.9 percent for the week ended March 27th. They blamed high gasoline prices. Yes, gas and oil prices are becoming a problem. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is cutting back oil production. This is coming on the heels of historically high crude prices that are now at risk of going even higher. High oil prices is a cost-push inflation generator, and is in effect a consumption tax. But when you create massive fiat dollars from thin air, you'll have this. Printing money might get you a rising equity market as stocks are priced like a commodity rather than as a function of discounted earnings - an election year Master Planner objective- but you get earnings-destroying cost-push inflation too. Any way you cut it, overproduction of fiat currencies eventually leads to economic slowdown, and increasing deflation risks.

Manufacturing activity figures disappointed this week. The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago reported that its Index of Manufacturing declined from 63.6 to 57.6. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. It was the inflationary component in the index that kept it from slipping further, the "prices paid" ingredient. New orders and production components fell sharply. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. Factory Orders rose only 0.3 percent in February on the heels of a revised 0.9 percent decline in January. But if you exclude the transportation orders, Factory Orders actually fell in February by 1.2 percent. A March measure from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its index rose slightly from 61.4 in February to 62.5 in March.

On the inflation/deflation front, the Producer Price Index rose a miniscule 0.1 percent in February, according to the Labor Department. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, was also reported to have risen only 0.1 percent. If the numbers are right, deflation isn't that far away. If. The Labor Department got the headlines they were after on Thursday when they reported that Jobless Claims were 342,000 for the week ended March 27th. Of course they revised last week's figure up to 345,000. Yet each week the press reports that Jobless Claims are down. They are not down. At best you can say they essentially remain about the same as they have for several weeks now -which is too high for a so-called recovery.

snip>

The last time we saw this many jobs created in one month in the U.S. was in April 2000, the very beginning of the 80 percent crash in the NASDAQ, the 50 percent crash in the S&P 500, and the 40 percent pummeling the DJIA took. It marked the beginning of the last - and perhaps continuing- recession. So assuming the jobs number is remotely accurate, it doesn't necessarily correlate to good times. No matter how you feel about the accuracy of this number, ya gotta hand it to Labor, they're doing their yeoman's part to get Dubya reelected. Or are they? Folks, hear it here first. This number just may have gotten John Kerry elected in November. I'll explain why in the Bonds section.

much more.....

[Frodo]

8. ISM Services takes another unexpected jump.

To 65.8 from 60.8 (expected to rise slightly to 61-61.5).

Interestingly, the 65.8 is just barely a record high (over the 65.7 from a couple months ago).

Internals shortly



The graph usually takes a few minutes to update and may not include this month yet.

[Frodo]

10. More on the topic (some internals)

Service sector surges

ISM non-manufacturing index jumps to a record in March, far exceeding Wall Street expectations.


NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Growth in the U.S. services sector hit a record high in March, well above expectations, a report showed on Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index surged to 65.8 in March from 60.8 in February. Wall Street economists had forecast a rise to 61.5. A number above 50 indicates growth.

The survey's employment index rose in March to 53.9 from 52.7 in February. Growth in demand for new orders rose to 62.8 in March from 60.3 in February.

The services sector includes everything from restaurants and hotels to banks and airlines, and accounts for about 80 percent of the U.S. economy. (Emphasis mine - and an interesting point)

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/05/news/economy/ism_services.reut/index.htm

[54anickel]

11. Market's not too excited and the blather down plays the report.

10:51 and I must be going now. :hi:

Dow 10,488.96 +18.37 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,061.98 +4.81 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,143.05 +1.24 (+0.11%)
30-yr Bond 5.014% +0.042

NYSE Volume 352,143,000
Nasdaq Volume 536,106,000

Blather - :eyes:
10:30AM: Having set fresh session highs since the last update, the market is maintaining its stance in positive territory... The ISM Services report is serving as a supporting factor after checking in at 65.8 (consensus 61.0)... Keep in mind, though, that the index isn't compiled from its components, but is dependent on a single question - is business activity stronger, weaker or the same as a month ago... Therefore, the index can swing wide of the movement in the components and a couple of points one way or another are not necessarily statistically significant...
Additionally, the ISM Services report is relatively young and has never been tested in an economic upturn... Nevertheless, the report is likely to continue acting as a supporting factor for the market in today's action... NYSE Adv/Dec 1375/1541, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1642/1144

[Frodo]

13. Looks like you post a little faster than I do.

:-)

[Frodo]

12. Internals and some interesting blather on the topic

From Briefing.com

"Keep in mind, though, that the index isn't compiled from its components, but is dependent on a single question - is business activity stronger, weaker or the same as a month ago... (Not really fair to call it an "index" then is it?) Therefore, the index can swing wide of the movement in the components and a couple of points one way or another are not necessarily statistically significant... Additionally, the ISM Services report is relatively young and has never been tested in an economic upturn..." (emphasis mine)

Internals:

Category Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov
Total Index 65.8 60.8 65.7 58.0 59.6
New Orders 62.8 60.3 64.9 59.5 60.8
Employment 53.9 52.7 53.4 54.0 54.4
Deliveries (nsa) 55.0 55.5 56.5 52.0 53.0
Inventories (nsa) 51.5 49.0 49.5 51.5 51.0
Exports (nsa) 51.5 55.5 51.0 57.5 54.5
Imports (nsa) 60.5 58.5 54.5 57.0 57.5
Prices (nsa) 65.7 57.3 59.7 60.3 58.1


Interesting jump in prices with a much stronger Import number than Export.

[54anickel]

9. 10:05 numbers and blather

Dow 10,500.37 +29.78 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,064.93 +7.76 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,144.48 +2.67 (+0.23%)
30-yr Bond 5.019% +0.047

NYSE Volume 227,168,000
Nasdaq Volume 365,860,000

10:00AM: The market has weakened to its opening lows, breaching negative territory... For now, the major averages are able to stay in positive grounds, though, albeit with only fractional gains... The bulk of the sectors are little changed at this juncture, trading on either side of the unchanged line... Among the leaders to the upside are the communications equipment, managed healthcare, airline, drug retail, casino & gaming, and auto manufacturing sectors... Laggards of note include the computer storage, gold, construction services, and real estate operations groups...
Separately, the ISM Services report checked in at 65.8 above the consensus of 61.0 and last month's reading of 60.8... NYSE Adv/Dec 1325/1345, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1379/1202

9:45AM: In contrast to the futures indications, the cash market is off to a slightly higher open, with technology sectors leading the advance... The favorable bias comes on the heels of the sizeable 0.9-2.1% gains for the major averages on Friday and 3% and 5% gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq over the course of last week and is rooted in the market's anticipation ahead of the upcoming Q1 earnings season... Expectations are for earnings growth of 17% in the S&P 500, which is likely to prove conservative...

Supporting the positive sentiment in the early going is upward guidance by Siebel (SEBL 12.61 +0.32) and Cigna (CI 67.03 +6.38) - please see the Earnings Briefing for more perspective on the latter... Separately, the ISM Services report for March will be announced at 10ET...

[Frodo]

14. Dead here today - closing numbers.

DJIA 10558.37 +87.78
Nasdaq 2079.12 +21.95
S&P 500 1150.54 +8.73
Rus 2000 606.39 +2.94
10 Yr Bd 4.21 +.07

[KoKo]

15. Kinda gets to one, the market goes up while all hell breaks loose in Iraq.

The disconnect is amazing. :shrug:

[Frodo]

16. Perhaps it's a matter of perception?

When did "all He11 break loose"?

[KoKo]

19. Headline in Raleigh, NC Newspaper says: "Riots Erupt across Iraq!"

on the day that the Chimp was speaking to his "Patriots and Pioneers" in the banking industry in Charlotte, NC.

:shrug:

[54anickel]

18. KoKo, are you referring to this report on the Marines or did something

else happen today. I'm trying to catch up.

Thanks to both you and Frodo for your contributions for the day.

[KoKo]

20. A quiet day without a lot-o-spirit.... n/t

[54anickel]

17. Well, all in all not a bad day. Here's a bit of blather to go with the

close. Sounds like most of the gains came in the final hour. :shrug:

Close: After spending much of the session vacillating in positive territory with only slight gains, buyers stepped out of the woodwork driving the market to another rally with the major averages closing up 0.8-1.1%... Although the rally in the last hour of trading was rooted in a buy program, the tone of today's trade was favorable even before that, with the major averages trading in positive territory through the entirety of the session despite last week's sweeping gains...
The positive sentiment resulted from the market's anticipation ahead of the upcoming Q1 earnings season, which gets kicked off tomorrow after the close with AA's report... Analysts are expecting year/year growth of 17% in the S&P 500, but Briefing.com thinks the number could be as high as 20% given the favorable preannouncement season and the analysts' tendency to keep near-term estimates on the conservative side of things... Supporting the market's advance was the better than expected ISM Services report, which checked in at 65.8 (consensus 61.0)...

While laggards of note were limited, interest-rate-sensitive groups including homebuilding, S&L/savings banks, money center banks, and real estate operators pulled back due to participants' view that interest rates have bottomed on the heels of Friday's strong Employment report... To that effect, the 10-year note was down 17/32, bringing its yield up to 4.21%... Other lagging groups included the computer storage and gold sectors... Among the leaders to the upside were the internet, semiconductor, software, telecom, biotech, coal, airline, iron & steel, and metal mining groups...