Senate contests a worry for Dems

[Ediacara]

Senate contests a worry for Dems
Fundraising limits, focus on Kerry cited

By David Espo
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Democrats in numerous key Senate campaigns face a financial disadvantage this fall, according to strategists in both parties, the combined result of the priority given to John Kerry's bid for the White House, new fundraising restrictions and the location of the most competitive races.

While developments in Oklahoma and Colorado sparked optimism from Democrats, most hotly contested Senate races are outside the 17 battleground states targeted by Kerry, a cluster of independent groups supporting him and the Democratic National Committee.

Democrats also lag in the fundraising race between the party senatorial committees, trailing the Republicans in cash on hand by nearly $10 million at the end of March. And while Kerry works furiously to raise the money to compete with President Bush's record-setting bankroll, the president raised $2.7 million for the GOP senatorial committee at one event in March, and has pledged to attend a dinner benefiting congressional candidates in June.

More at the Denver Post

[Florida_Geek]

1. I expect the GOP to spend tons of money if they think * will lose

Delay and his games in Texas has the house sewn up. But if the GOP think * will lose, they will push for that 60+ margin in the Senate to block anything Kerry can do.

That is my biggest fear. No Judges appointed under Kerry, House and Senate spending money on what they want. Kerry would then become a token President.

[onehandle]

3. Our chances are slim to take the Senate.

But their chances are near impossible to hit 60.

Don't worry.

[Frodo]

7. If Bush loses it can't happen.

If they have a good year they could hit 56-57. And that's probably enough. A couple of our filibuster votes are only there as padding... they wouldn't hold out if it were that close. Plus we'll have another tough Senate campaign in 2006 (where we AGAIN defend more seats than they do - and probably with more retirements). People running for reelection in Bush country can't afford to be the one or two votes holding a filibuster after "the people have spoken".

[WillParkinson]

8. ALWAYS worry!

They have ways, you know. A few dollars in the right pockets (like the SCOTUS) or to Diebold and you could find them having it all. 100%.

[Frodo]

4. Well, they will certainly transfer their efforts to the Senate if..

... they come to think that shrub is going down..

But 60 seats doesn't do them any miraculous good if they don't have the White House. Sixty only lets you break filibusters, you need 66 to overcome a veto.

You only need 41 (as we've seen) to block judicial nominees. And you can bet they will be out for blood on nominees if we take the White House.

[Frodo]

2. Got anything else to "brighten my day"?

I had been thinking that things were looking a little better for our Senate prospects this year (I DON'T expect to pick up any seats, but I thought we could limit the bloodletting to one or two losses net).


THEN - I just read through an article talking about Daschle drawing his own "Nader" challenge from the local Native american population and have started to really worry about SD.

NOW you give me this?

[yelladawg]

5. Oklahoma will remain repug

The latest polls done by even Brad Carson (Dino) shows him behind Coburn (repug) by 10 points. Oklahoma doesn't look good for the Democrats.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

13. Oklahoma just plain doesn't look good!

:puke:

[bkcc]

6. Anyone have a list of the Dems that are running for Senate in '04?

We should contribute to their campaigns if we can.

[Ediacara]

9. From the DSCC

Alabama
Democratic Senate Candidate vs. GOP Senator Richard Shelby

Alaska
Former Governor Tony Knowles (D) VS. GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski

Arizona
Democratic Senate Candidate vs. GOP Senator John McCain

Arkansas
Senator Blanche Lincoln vs. Unknown

California
Senator Barbara Boxer (D) vs. Bill Jones (R)

Colorado
OPEN

Connecticut
The Reelection of Senator Christopher Dodd

Florida
Democratic Senate Candidate vs. GOP Senate Candidate

Georgia
Democratic Senate Candidate vs. GOP Senate Candidate

Hawaii
The Reelection of Senator Daniel Inouye

Idaho
Democratic Candidate VS. GOP Senator Mike Crapo

Illinois
Barack Obama (D) v. Jack Ryan (R)

Indiana
The Reelection of Evan Bayh

Iowa
Democratic Senate Candidate VS. GOP Senator Chuck Grassley

Kansas
Democratic Senate Candidate vs. GOP Senator Sam Brownback

Kentucky
State Senator Daniel Mongiardo vs. GOP Senator Jim Bunning

Louisiana
OPEN

Maine
No Race at this time

Maryland
The Reelection of Senator Barbara Mikulski

Massachusetts
No race at this time.

Michigan
No Race at this time

Minnesota
No race at this time.

Mississippi
No race at this time.

Missouri
State Treasurer Nancy Farmer vs. GOP Senator Kit Bond

Montana
No race at this time.

Nebraska
No race at this time.

Nevada
The Reelection of Senator Harry Reid

New Hampshire
State Senator Burt Cohen (D) vs. Senator Judd Gregg (R)

New Jersey
No race at this time.

New Mexico
No race at this time.

New York
The Reelection of Senator Charles Schumer

North Carolina
Former Clinton White House Chief of Staff, Erskine Bowles vs. GOP Congressman Richard Burr

North Dakota
The Reelection of Senator Byron Dorgan

Ohio
Democratic Primary vs. GOP Senator George Voinovich

Oklahoma
Congressman Brad Carson vs. Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys (R) or OK Corporate Commissioner Bob Anthony (R)

Oregon
The Reelection of Senator Ron Wyden

Pennsylvania
Democratic Congressman Joe Hoeffel vs. GOP Senator Arlen Specter or GOP Congressman Pat Toomey

Rhode Island
No Race at this time

South Carolina
Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum vs. GOP Primary

South Dakota
Senator Tom Daschle vs. Former GOP Congressman John Thune

Tennessee
No race at this time.

Texas
No Race at this time.

Utah
Democratic Senate Candidate vs. GOP Senator Robert Bennett

Vermont
The Reelection of Senator Patrick Leahy

Virginia
No race at this time.

Washington
Senator Patty Murray vs. GOP Congressman George Nethercutt

West Virginia
No race at this time.

Wisconsin
Senator Russ Feingold vs. GOP Primary

Wyoming
No Race at this time.

[bkcc]

10. Thanks!

[Ediacara]

11. I should add in their link :-)

http://www.dscc.org

I believe they have links to everyone's campaigns, although it may not be up to date. It still lists Colorado Senate race as unknown open, even though it's Ken Salazar (D) vs unknown.

[leesa]

12. If they can't take Senate seats after the disasters of the last 31/2 years

they don't deserve to have them. This is a GOP stunt. They will keep using the GOP media to tell you Dems can't possibly win, to discourage voters and contributions. Standard practice.

[Bandit]

14. The Republican Senator running for election in my state has been saturatin

the airwaves with ads and this is only April. She is a junior Senator and I wonder where in the hell she has been getting all her money from. Every day almost every hour there is an ad for her election. She has been considered one that could be picked off easily but with the amount of money she is spending it is looking bleaker all the time. The Democratic candidate has yet to run a single ad while hers have been airing daily for a month now. Money talks.

[David__77]

15. Things are looking up.

It has gone from a situation of nearly inevitable losses to one in which gains are certainly possible.

By the way, a filibuster-proof GOP majority is impossible. That will not happen under any circumstances. For one thing, I am pretty certain that we'd see a couple GOP defections, concerned about too much power to the far right.

[John_H]

16. Utter BS--at worst the power situation remains the same.

We may one seat which makes no difference vote-wise since Senate votes always involve at least a handful switching sides.

But it's a very real possibility that we could at least get a 50/50 tie with Kerry's VP as the deciding vote by losing GA and LA while picking up IL and two of the following: AK (polling even currently), NC (we could do this if a Edwards is VP maybe), CO (anyone's guess), or even LA.

Picking up three gives us a flat-out majority.

My prediction: 50/50 tie--we lose GA, keep LA and pick up IL and AK.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

17. I could see either a 50/50 Democratic Senate or a 51/49 Democratic....

senate.

I do agree with you that Georgia is a lost cause. I must strongly disagree with you on Louisana. We can win it. John Breaux will make sure that Chris John becomes the next Democratic Senator from LA!

:dem:

[Frodo]

19. We can't "pick up" NC.

So if that's a race you only see winning ("maybe") with Edwards on the ticket then you now have to account for another lost seat. Alaska just isn't polling heavily enough our way to count on overcoming the huge advantages the other side will have in money and turnout (Kerry will not be spending a lot of time in Alaska).

Normally, an incumbent running well under 50% is in BAD shape, since most "undecided" voters will break for the challenger. The problem is that Knowles is better known than the incumbent is. "Undecided" here really means "undecided", and they lean right.

You've also ignored a few other races we'll be lucky to hold. With SD being added to that column lately. Daschle is also running well under 50% in a state that will go for shrub by 20% and his Democratic primary opponent has dropped out of the primary to run as an independent. With Nader taking some of the left and a Native American blunting the reservation turnout that saved Johnson's bacon... we'll be lucky if this isn't "leans Republican" by next month.

And Florida is a pure tossup. While SC is already "leans Republican".

I've given up forecasting LA. I think Vitter "wins" comfortably in November (but with WELL under 50%) and the runoff winner will depend a lot more on what happens nationally. There's too much murk in there to call it.


My prediction: We have almost no shot at picking up the Senate absent a runaway miracle victory by Kerry. We will be lucky to lose only one seat and will likely lose a net of 2-3. A BAD day for us means a 56-43-1 Senate.

[He loved Big Brother]

18. When is Terry McAuliffe's position up for grabs again?

Just curious.

[sidpleasant]

20. Don't forget MA, or, do you want the good news or the bad news?

If Kerry wins (the good news) then he has to resign his Senate seat. I believe that current state law allows appalling GOP Governor Mitt Romney to name a successor to fill out the last 2 years of Kerry's term (the bad news), or to call for a special election to fill it. Romney's obsessed with turning Massachusetts into a GOP state and you can be damn sure he'll appoint a Republican to fill Kerry's spot, especially if the Senate ends up 50/50. From what I've read there's nothing in the law to stop the very ambitious Romney from appointing himself to the Senate if he chooses. He says he's promised to serve his full term but when was the last time a Republican promise meant anything?

[Frodo]

23. "There's nothing in the law (TODAY) to stop him..."

But it's very possible there will be "something in the law" before the election (or at least before he is sworn in). We have overwhelming control of the legislature and have started the process of taking this out of his hands. I don't believe even a veto would be upheld.

But it could still hurt us if Romney runs for that seat in a special election. He's going to come out even more popular after our convention (IMHO) and with all his cash he would be VERY formidible.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2004/02/19/dem...

[PROGRESSIVE1]

24. Who should I contact to ask them to support changing the law?

[bobbyboucher]

21. What, is Nader running for Senate in every state?

He's going to cost the Dems ALL those Senate races! Damn that Nader!

[He loved Big Brother]

25. LOL!

That's the funniest thing I've read today.

[loudsue]

22. No, no, no! The key is BBV....

There are a lot more people that are fed up with repukes than the paid-for-polls are talking about. They're out there, but they're not real vocal, because they keep getting shouted down, by repuke extremists which include media talking heads.

If we were to have FAIR elections, I truly think the Dems would take the whole banana. Americans are fed up with what's been going on, and dubya doesn't have long coat-tails for this one.

Please keep putting pressure on your senators & congresscritters to amend HAVA, and support the bills that are now coming out to require A VOTER VERIFIED PAPER BALLOT!!.

:kick::kick::kick: