Kerry 47, Bush 45; With Nader, It's Still A Tie

[papau]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=815

Kerry 47, Bush 45; With Nader, It's Still A Tie

Candidate April 1-4 % March 17-19 %
Kerry........ 47 ............ 48
Bush......... 45 ............. 46
Undecided .....6 .............. 5


When Independent candidate Ralph Nader is added, Kerry and Bush are statistically tied with 45.5% for Bush, 45.3% for Kerry, and Nader with 3%.
Bush ............ 46 ......... 46
Kerry ........... 45 .......... 46

Nader ............ 3 ........... 3
Undecided ........ 5 ........... 5

Blues States...Kerry...47%.....Bush....42%.
Red States ....Kerry...46......Bush....48

Right Track...................43%.....wrong track.....50%
Bush deserves re-election ....44%.... time for someone new...51%

Kerry and Bush show equally 'favorable' ratings (Very Favorable -Somewhat Favorable) among voters with 56% each, though Bush's 'unfavorable' ratings (Somewhat Unfavorable- Very Unfavorable) of 42% exceeds Kerry's (36%).<snip>

Overall, Bush's job performance remains at a statistical stand still with 47% of voters giving him a positive rating (Excellent-Good), while 53% respond negatively (Fair-Poor).<snip>

(COMMENT: Zogby sees the election frozen for the next few months except for Bush getting his base to see Kerry more negatively, raising Kerry's unfavorable numbers over the next few months as he continues to be hammered in paid advertising and by the President and his surrogates.)

[alcuno]

1. I like the blue states/red states and the right track/wrong track

[Zero Gravitas]

2. Nader

no wonder so many in the GOP are giving Nader money. He's their best hope for keeping the "War-President" in power.

[Melinda]

3. The tie is ridiculous. If this is the best Kerry can do, then we're doomed

After all Bush* has done and is doing. Given Iraq, the economy, Medicare and all their other lies and outright crimes. Dr. Dean was a bulldog, Kerry is a pussycat; we are all screwed if Kerry doesn't WAKE THE FUCK UP!!!!!!!

Where is the ferocity we were promised? When exactly does Kerry take the BFEE on?

[fertilizeonarbusto]

5. do not despair

Study your history, you'll find that an incumbent that's not clearly ahead by this point in the election year is cooked because incumbents rarely pick up new support-i.e., everyone that's voting for them has decided to do so by now. We have to stay smart, stay aggressive and keep going.

[0rganism]

6. Give the Kerry campaign more credit than that

Kerry is a fighter, but he likes to pick his fights carefully. He's clever, and works below radar level. Before the first primary victory, I'd damn near forgotten he exists. He was an "also-ran" in the press, while Dean and Clark were getting a lot of coverage.

Dr. Dean was a lot more vocal, true. He was also an easy target for dirty tricks. He fought his battles up-front and way too early, and didn't get the nomination.

Sen. Kerry is more of a commando, fighting a guerilla war, just waiting for the bush campaign to vent 100 million in campaign funds. I expect Kerry to let a lot of the early media attacks slide until July, at least. He'll keep campaigning and fundraising in person, manage to get his message out one way or another, and then turn up the heat when it counts. If the bushites have been burning ad money all spring, he'll be able to match bush $-for-$ when the propaganda wars heat up in September.

[DeepModem Mom]

4. I remember a recent analysis that "approval" for incumbent's...

job performance is all-important. Below 50 has meant defeat; around 50, which is where Bush has been recently, would mean a very close race. Job performance at 47% gives me hope. And if I trust any pollster, it's Zogby.

On edit: Bush leads by only 2% in the RED states --

[Garion_55]

8. have you seen the latest pew numbers?

bush at 43% approval.

the wheels are coming off.

[Garion_55]

7. There is absolutely no reason y Kerry should be ahead now.

We have a booming economy (lol)
a successful wartime president who liberated 50 million people
28 million bucks worth of negative ads against kerry.
kerry on vacation and surgery.
no official democrat nominee yet.


add all that up and bush should be up 8-13 points everywhere.

if he is not, there is serious trouble in the bush camp bank on that.


thats why i dont like seeing people on here or in the media freaking out cuz kerry takes a break or doesnt respond right away to attacks. still way too early to panic. bush is going to beat himself all kerry has to do is sit back, point out the lies about his record, point out bushs record and let bush do the rest.



Come join in the right wing humiliating fun! Come join me in the chatroom! (look for benden, thats me) hope to see ya there! http://www.sfwest.com/BostonTeaParty.html

[Chomskyite]

9. Think about it

All of this with Kerry on vacation and not spending money, while the Bushie has spent tens of millions!