Ex-US Intel Chief: South Korea May Act Against North

[Purveyor]

Source: Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — South Korea is losing patience with North Korea and probably will take military action, former national intelligence director Dennis Blair said Sunday.

Blair, who just returned from the Korean peninsula, said he doesn’t see a major war starting, but he believes recent aggression by the North will press South Korea into some lower level military confrontations.

He said there’s support among South Koreans for their military to take a stronger stance, adding that “a South Korean government who does not react would not be able to survive there.”

He told CNN’s “State of the Union” that the North’s recent moves to sink a South Korean ship and fire artillery rounds on a South Korean island near a disputed sea border have frayed Seoul’s patience. The artillery attack killed four South Koreans, while 46 sailors died in the sinking of the ship.

Read more: http://www.thestarpress.com/article/20101212/NEWS06/101212018/1002/NEWS01/Ex-US-intel-chief--South-Korea-may-act-against-North

[Dennis Donovan]

1. If China bows out of the fray, SK will invade the North...

Why not? In 1950, the South kicked the North's ass until the Chinese soldiers poured over the border and pushed them to the Sea of Japan.

[naaman fletcher]

2. slight correction..

the North kicked the south's ass, then the UN (The U.S. with a few brits and australians) kicked the norths ass. Although today most likely the south could do it without the U.S..

[iandhr]

3. true the North

almost overran the peninsula in 1950. The United Nations counter attack at Inchon is what changed the course of the war. MacArthur landed at Inchon and caught the North by surprise. The UN pushed the North to the Yalu river on the borders with China. Then Chinese "volunteers" push the UN back and the war ended in 1953 in a stalemate.

[Faygo Kid]

5. You're correct. Read Halberstam's last book, "The Coldest Winter."

Neither North nor South Korea "kicked ass." The North was tough, but unable to adapt; the South Koreans were on a par with the South Vietnamese army. The Americans did kick ass until the fool MacArthur (Inchon was brilliant, admittedly, but his followup was terrible) pushed to the Yalu. Then the Chinese poured in; Mao was adamant about it, even though others in the Chinese leadership wanted no part of it. It took Matthew Ridgeway to steady the ship and get to that stalemate.

Brilliant book, highly recommended. I am not surprised that the South has had it with the North, but they ought to wait them out. The North will collapse, and soon. Any action by the South will just reinforce the power of the aged leaders clinging to control there.

[jmowreader]

9. I don't think so, sir...

North Korea has an exceptional army. Kim, Il Sung and Kim, Jong Il screwed the civilian population of North Korea for the last 60 years to make it so, but the DPRK's military establishment has a million pair of boots on the ground and enough supplies to keep them fighting for at least a year.

South Korea, on the other hand, is dependent on the US Army for its defense.

[RZM]

4. Measured 'punishment,' maybe

A full-scale invasion? I really doubt it. I'm no expert, but I don't think that the South wants to risk the heavy damage that Seoul would take if the NK leadership felt their regime was at stake. Such an 'all-or-nothing' scenario probably doesn't have enough support among the public in the South. Alot of southerners aren't super-keen on reunification anyway, since in economic terms it would make German reunification look like a picnic.

Of course I could be wrong -- but I'd be quite surprised if we saw a full-scale invasion. Probably the 'least bad' option is to continue the status quo and hope the regime in the North rots away on its own.

[soryang]

6. The US is more eager for war than anyone else

Most people in the south are against violent reunification. Their current president is a right wing fool and the US encourages his aggresive posturing. There would be lots of money for US defense industry in a Korean war fought primary by Koreans on the ground while the US Air Force conducts a genocidal dumpex on the north.

[madokie]

7. My question would be

whose whispering in king jon ILL's ear to make him think he can get away with the shit he does?

[Old Troop]

8. I think history is whispering in his ear. He and his dear old dad were

pretty successful in creating confrontation and crisis in and around the area and turning it to profit for the regime. That said, this time things seem a little different: NK has ordered home all their workers from Russia and other countries that hire them, forfeiting an undetermined amount of hard currency; the party has stopped requiring that farms and villages provide food and other goods to the military except in a couple of provinces - that means that soldiers who usually collect food are back in their bases.

[SKKY]

11. And that would be the proverbial million dollar question

[cowcommander]

10. The South Koreans have been extremely patient already

Can't blame them for wanting to strike back, so many of their soldiers have already died, there haven't been any dead North Korean soldiers out of all these recent confrontations.