Unemployment benefit applications drop sharply

[onehandle]

Source: AP

WASHINGTON – The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest point in more than two years, a positive sign that the job market is slowly improving.

Applications dropped by 34,000 to 388,000, the fewest since July 2008, the Labor Department said Thursday. The level of applications has either fallen or remained unchanged in five of the past six weeks.

Unemployment applications below 425,000 signal modest job growth. But economists say applications need to fall consistently to 375,000 or below to indicate a significant decline in unemployment. Applications for unemployment benefits peaked during the recession at 651,000 in March 2009.

The level of applications can be particularly volatile during the holidays. But a department analyst said there were no unusual factors affecting the report.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101230/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

---

Just in time for a Republican House to take credit.

.

[DCBob]

1. "Just in time for a Republican House to take credit." .. and Faux Newz will back them up..

sad but true.

[hayu_lol]

2. Wait until next week...

when all the underemployed in retail are let go.

[Trey9007]

3. LOL...Looks like Bill Clinton's prediction may be comming true....

I remember in one of his speeches he basically said the American people allow the Reps to mess things up. He said Dems then get power and fix things, but people are impatient and vote Reps into power, right at the time Dem policys begin to work. Theres no doubt the GOP will take credit for this piece of news. I almost fell out my chair a few days ago, when I watched a CNN stock analysis say that the GOP being put in power, was the reason stocks did so well in 2010.

[Le Taz Hot]

4. Bill Clinton.

He WAS the President who signed into law legislation repealing Glass-Steagall, right? Perhaps if the Obama Administration would have used the Bully Pulpit to re-instate Glass-Steagall instead of bailing out the banks who saddled the TAXPAYERS with their bad debt -- and there's a WHOLE lot more to come, he could have saved himself a shellacking. The scenario Clinton proposes is absurd.

[Trey9007]

5. The Bank bailout was signed into law before Obama....

became President.

[Le Taz Hot]

11. Way to miss the point.

:thumbsup:

[mikekohr]

8. The Repeal Of Glass/Steagal Was A Big MIstake and a perfect example why Democrats should never

buy into the Republican blind, rigid adherence to the market providing all the answers. President Clinton is correct however about Democrats cleaning up and Republicans "F" ing up.

9 of the last 10 recessions have occurred under Republican leadership:
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/history-of-recessions.html

Republicans CRUSH job creation:
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/job-growth.html

Republican economic policy EXPLODES the national debt:
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/national-debt.html

Democratic economic performance DRAMATICALLY outperforms Republican results:
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/economic-record.html


RESULTS MATTER

[Roy Rolling]

6. Trick of Numbers

When there are fewer jobs, there are fewer people to lay off. That is why new unemployment claims are down---there is a smaller workforce to make unemployed. The true US unemployment rate is closer to 20% because when unemployment benefits run out, those people who may still not have a job are not counted as unemployed.

[robcon]

7. That's a false statement.

"because when unemployment benefits run out, those people who may still not have a job are not counted as unemployed. "

Unemployed people are recorded as unemployed whether they've applied for, or receive, unemployment benefits.

For the BLS, unemployed means unemployed.

[stockholmer]

9. absolutely untrue, they DID stop counting once the benefits run out

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

they stopped counting them under the Clinton administration in 1994

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discouraged_worker

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not count discouraged workers as unemployed but rather refers to them as only "marginally attached to the labor force".

[robcon]

15. The BLS counts the unemployed, whether they apply/qualify for unemployment insurance or not.

The BLS survey of employment has NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with unemployment insurance.

You confuse those who don't apply, or don't qualify, for unemployment insurance, and discouraged workers.

unemployed= those who are looking for work and in the past month, but are not employed.
Discouraged workers= unemployed people who are not looking for employment

None of those definitions has ANYTHING top do with unemployment insurance - applications or qualifications.

[stockholmer]

20. I did not bring up what you call unemployment insurance in terms of U3

I do not think we disagree on the falsity of the 9.8% supposed official rate

bottom line, the 'official' U3 number of 9.8% unemployment is deeply flawed, and doesn't count over half the actual number

if you have given up looking after a month (which is a ridiculously short time to pull someone off the rolls from), OR you run out of unemployment 'insurance' benefits (ie 99rs), then you still don't have a job, but are removed from the U3

if you have not looked for a job in the past month, you then are not counted in the U3


the U6 rate is over 17% now, but even this number is flawed, as each month the small business job birth/death cycle is systematically overestimated by 2 to 4 percent

also, the BLS goes in after the fact each month, and revises the numbers, almost always upward, yet this receives no media attention



The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over


•U1 : Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
•U2 : Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
•U3 : Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
•U4 : U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
•U5 : U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
•U6 : U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.



http://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques5

Who is counted as unemployed?
Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.

Workers expecting to be recalled from layoff are counted as unemployed, whether or not they have engaged in a specific jobseeking activity. In all other cases, the individual must have been engaged in at least one active job search activity in the 4 weeks preceding the interview and be available for work (except for temporary illness).

Who is not in the labor force?Persons not in the labor force are those who are not classified as employed or unemployed during the survey reference week.

Labor force measures are based on the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over. (Excluded are persons under 16 years of age, all persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, and persons on active duty in the Armed Forces.) The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force.

[Raschel]

12. I agree. How do you keep track of people who no longer qualify for unemployment benefits?

People are not applying because they don't qualify.

Plus, how many of those people are now working minimum wage or near minimum wage jobs? I just don't think that there are many well paying jobs to go around for all of the people who have lost production jobs.

[robcon]

16. Huh? They take a survey... that's the measure of employment/unemployment.

BLS has been taking that survey for decades.

[Raschel]

17. Huh? Guess I didn't know what you do. I'm assuming BLS is Bureau of Labor Statistics?

Where do they do this survey? Whom do they survey?

[robcon]

18. I don't know where to begin. Just go to BLS site.

Maybe start here: http://www.bls.gov/bls/demographics.htm

You REALLY don't need me to google BLS.

[xynthee]

19. It was hard to find, but here's some info about the CPS (Current Population Survey),

which is where they get their data about unemployment and various other things:

---

http://dsc.ucsf.edu/main.php?name=cps

Sponsoring agency and purpose of the survey
The Current Population Survey is a monthly longitudinal survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Its purpose is to provide information on the labor force characteristics of the U.S. population. The CPS provide estimates of employment, unemployment, earnings, hours of work, and other indicators.

-

Who is included in the survey
The basic monthly CPS is a nationally representative sample of the civilian non-institutionalized, resident population of the U.S. The March supplement also includes members of the armed forces residing with their families in civilian housing or on military bases.

How often the survey is done
The CPS is a monthly panel survey that includes about 50,000 households each month. The sample includes eight panels, with a new panel brought into rotation each month. In each panel, households are interviewed once a month for four months in a row, and again for the same four calendar months of the following year.

How the survey is conducted
For the first month's interview, the interviewer visits the address selected for the survey to determine if a responsible adult will provide the necessary information. If someone at the address agrees to an interview, the interviewer uses a laptop computer to conduct the interview. Interviewees in each household are asked to provide information about themselves and other household members age 16 or older.

The fifth interview is also done in person most of the time. Interviews in the other six months are done by telephone.

Sampling strategy
The CPS uses a complex stratified sampling technique that identifies 754 geographic sample areas and then selects clusters of housing units within each area. Of the approximately 70,000 housing units selected each month, about 60,000 are occupied and eligible for interview. Of these, about 7.5% are not interviewed because of absence, refusal to cooperate, inability to respond, or unavailability.

This sampling strategy results in a monthly sample of about 50,000 households. Information is obtained each month for about 112,000 individuals age 16 or older.

---

So for the first month and the last month, you get an in-person visit to your home. The other six months, the survey is conducted by phone. I wonder what happens if you lose your job and your phone gets cut off?

Also, look at the criteria for classifying people as employed or unemployed:

---

http://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques4

Who is counted as employed?

Employed persons consist of:

All persons who did any work for pay or profit during the survey reference week.
All persons who did at least 15 hours of unpaid work in a family-owned enterprise operated by someone in their household.
All persons who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs, whether they were paid or not.

Not all of the wide range of job situations in the American economy fit neatly into a given category. For example, people are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment.

---

So if you work for 8 hours in the week that you happen to be surveyed, you're counted as employed for that month. Or if your spouse has lost his/her job and is now working 50 hours a week for free at your home business, you're both employed!

Now, check out those who are not considered to be part of the labor force:

---

http://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques6

Who is not in the labor force?
Persons not in the labor force are those who are not classified as employed or unemployed during the survey reference week.

Labor force measures are based on the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over. (Excluded are persons under 16 years of age, all persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, and persons on active duty in the Armed Forces.) The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force.

---

So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, everyone in prison, on active duty in the military, and those who are going back to school with the futile hope of becoming qualified for a new type of job are not even in the equation! Now I hope you see why we can NEVER decriminalize drugs, stop any of our ridiculous wars, or stop funneling taxpayer money to the Kaplans, ITT Techs and University of Phoenixes!

I'm glad you asked these questions, because I've always been a little unclear on how the unemployment rate could be so low. I knew there had to be huge problems with their methodology!

[Raschel]

21. Thank you very much. That was very informative. Do you know anyone who has ever been surveyed?

I don't.

[xynthee]

25. Nope. n/t

[Rex]

23. Gosh, both times I was unemployed and on the rolls no one came

by and gave me a survey. Everytime I've had a job (and lots of them) no one ever came by with a survey. Never heard of anyone I know taking said survey. Sounds like bunk to me.

[TexasObserver]

10. It's good news!

[OnlinePoker]

13. It's "Continuing Claims" that is the real issue

These were expected to drop to 4.060 million, but instead went up to 4.128 million, a jump of 68,000. Until this number drops appreciably, I can't see a lot to cheer about in these releases.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

14. From the DOL's Employment and Training Administration:

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report {12/30/2010}

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Dec. 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 422,000. The 4-week moving average was 414,000, a decrease of 12,500 from the previous week's revised average of 426,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent for the week ending Dec. 18, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.2 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec.18 was 4,128,000, an increase of 57,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,071,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,120,000, a decrease of 37,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,157,250.

[Puzzledtraveller]

22. Headlines like these always cause me to think

Is it because there is only so many jobs that can be lost? Like does "No new jobless claims!!" mean jobs are being saved, or that they are just all gone now, a generalization I know, but just makes me wonder.

[freshwest]

24. Reports of less applications for unemployment don't prove less unemployment.

We know that discouraged workers or those who have run out of benefits are not applying. A measurement of employment is needed, whether tax ID numbers would prove anything, I don't know.

If a person is self-employed they can hold out or not pay; those who work for cash or barter for their expenses don't pay taxes, either.

This will probably be spun for the benefit of the GOP and Tea Party but it's not proof. And since the Tea Party is a media creation anyway, I suspect they'll spin this to get more of the same in office.

Just my two cents.