STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, January 12, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, January 12, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 11, 2011

Dow 11,671.88 +34.43 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,716.83 +9.03 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,274.48 +4.73 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.38 +0.04 (+0.30%)
30-Year Bond 4.53 +0.04 (+0.16%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Videos:
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's blizzard of reports

Jan 12 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/07 +2.2% NA NA +2.3%
Jan 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec NA NA 0.8%
Jan 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec NA NA 0.8%
Jan 12 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/08 NA NA -4.16M
Jan 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Dec -$80.0B -$80.0B -$91.4B
Jan 12 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Jan

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Demeter]

17. Are we reporting blizzards?

I only got about 5 inches of powder....

[xchrom]

2. recommend

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. Oil hovers above $91 amid US gasoline supply jump

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $91 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after a report showed U.S. gasoline supplies rose more than expected, suggesting demand may have slowed.

Benchmark oil for February delivery rose 4 cents to $91.15 a barrel late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that gasoline inventories rose 7 million barrels last week while analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., had forecast an increase of 2.9 million barrels. Inventories of crude rose 57,000 barrels and distillates added 1.5 million barrels, the API said.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports its weekly supply data later Wednesday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[xchrom]

7. nobody can drive with all this bad weather.

i know i didn't start the car yesterday -- and i may not again today.

[Pale Blue Dot]

4. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise on Speculation European Debt Crisis to Ease

U.S. stock-index futures climbed, signaling the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rise for a second day, amid speculation European officials will step up measures to control the region’s debt crisis.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. gained in Europe after Portugal sold bonds at lower yields than in the previous offer. Boeing Co. climbed 1.3 percent as rival Airbus SAS got a $15 billion airplane order.

S&P 500 futures expiring in March rose 0.6 percent to 1,277.5 at 11:42 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 0.5 percent to 11,674 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures increased the same amount to 2,297.5.

“States are intervening to keep risk premiums in check and to prevent the weak economic rebound from faltering,” said Alberto Espelosin, who helps manage about $12 billion at Zaragoza, Spain-based Ibercaja Gestion. “States are printing money that either we’ll have to pay for at one point, or that will generate inflation.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/u-s-stock-index-futures-rise-on-speculation-european-debt-crisis-to-ease.html

Yay! It's going to ease! What's that, the tenth time it's "easing" in five months?

[diddlysquat]

5. Wrong date....Today's the 12th

[Pale Blue Dot]

6. D'oh!

Fixed - thank you!

[Demeter]

26. And welcome to SMW!

(PBD is still in training wheels):rofl:

[Pale Blue Dot]

8. EU Crisis Plan May Feature Portugal Aid, Buybacks, Debt Rules

European governments are considering aid for Portugal, debt buybacks, lower interest rates on rescue loans and guarantees against excessive debt as part of a package to quell the financial crisis, according to two people with direct knowledge of the talks.

The plan, which may include a loan to Portugal of about 60 billion euros ($78 billion) and purchases of outstanding Greek debt, would mark an attempt to contain a crisis that has frustrated unprecedented efforts by policy makers to calm markets and raised questions about the health of the 17-nation euro economy.

Euro-area finance ministers will discuss elements of the package next week, though the debate is so sensitive in Germany that decisions may wait until a scheduled summit of political leaders on Feb. 4, said the people, who declined to be named because the deliberations are private.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/eu-said-to-consider-aid-for-portugal-bond-buybacks-in-deficit-crisis-plan.html

[Ghost Dog]

13. Markets relieved at Portuguese bond auction sucess

LONDON (AP) -- A relatively successful Portuguese bond auction on Wednesday eased market worries that the country would soon need a financial bailout, though experts warned it is still not clear of danger.

Stocks around Europe, already higher in the run-up to the auction, remained buoyed by the news that Portugal managed to sell around euro1.25 billion ($1.62 billion) worth of debt in its first bond auction of the year.

...

Analysts said the success of the auction has a lot to do with a more active role taken by the European Central Bank in recent days.

The ECB has reportedly been buying Portuguese bonds in the markets in an attempt to get the yield down. The evidence, at least in the markets, is that it has worked. Portugal's yield on its benchmark 10-year bond has fallen from a euro-era record of 7.18 percent on Monday to a current rate around 6.8 percent.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Markets-relieved-at-apf-3008813540.html?x=0



EU's Rehn seeks stronger fund, Portugal sells debt

BRUSSELS/LISBON (Reuters) – The European Union's top economic official called on Wednesday for a stronger European financial safety net as Portugal, seen as the next candidate for a bailout, comfortably sold its first debt of the year.

EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said finance ministers should look next week at reinforcing the effective lending capacity of the euro zone's existing rescue fund and making it more flexible to calm debt markets.

Separately, the European Commission suggested in an internal report seen by Reuters that a one-off tax could be levied on banks to raise 50 billion euros to fund the future European Stability Mechanism to aid euro zone states in trouble.

...

"The effective lending capacity of the current European Financial Stability Facility should be reinforced and the scope of its activity widened," he wrote in the Financial Times.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110112/bs_nm/us_eurozone


BRUSSELS (AFP) – The European Commission pressed governments to slice deficits and step up tough structural reforms when it kicked off a new era of tighter EU-wide economic governance on Wednesday.

"We are setting out to break new ground and to decisively improve the way in which we manage and coordinate our interdependent economies in the European Union," said European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

The move to tighten coordination across the 27-nation bloc, which includes the 17 eurozone states, aims to secure recovery on the heels of the global crisis, but more particularly break the manic cycle of debt drama and turbulence unsettling Europe.

...

"Europe urgently needs structural reforms that permanently boost our capacity to create jobs, increase productivity and ensure sustainable debt," Olli Rehn, the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, said in the Financial Times.

...

Among measures proposed by the survey are fiscal cuts, reform of the banking sector and potentially explosive labour market reforms, including cuts in employer social security contributions, greater labour flexibility and an increase in the statutory retirement age.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110112/bs_afp/eufinanceeconomybudget_20110112123127;

[Ghost Dog]

31. Spanish, Greek Stocks Lead Europe Higher

LONDON—Stocks in Spain and Greece surged 5%, leading a European market rally, as a successful Portuguese bond auction allayed near-term fears about the spread of the euro-zone debt crisis.

A top European official said the region's bailout fund should be strengthened, further boosting sentiment.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4% to end at 285.79, hitting its highest level since September 2008.

Spanish, Greek and Italian stocks posted particularly strong gains after Portugal successfully sold €1.25 billion ($1.62 billion) of government bonds. The auction was seen as a test of investor sentiment.

"It's one of those days where there's been a wave of euphoria passing through the market," said Justin Urquhart Stewart, co-founder of Seven Investment Management.

/... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704803604576077102574145600.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

I must say, these local markets suit speculators who think like surfers, an apt analogy for this island, catching and riding the repeating waves.

[Ghost Dog]

14. Germany grows record 3.6% in 2010

WIESBADEN, Germany (AFP) – The German economy posted record growth of 3.6 percent last year, provisional figures released Wednesday by the national statistics office showed, while the deficit grew to 3.5 percent.

The economy, Europe's biggest, had contracted by 4.7 percent in 2009 during Germany' worst post-war recession, before rebounding to post the strongest growth since its reunification in October 1990.

...

It added that the number of employed workers in Germany has climbed to an all-time high of 40.5 million people.

...

The country has benefited from a rebound in global trade that has raised tax revenues while falling unemployment has reduced the need for some public spending.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110112/ts_afp/germanyeconomygrowthdeficit_20110112095021

[Festivito]

9. Debt: 01/10/2011 14,014,345,009,018.63 (UP 4,922,644,472.60) (Mon, DOWN a little.)

(Good day.)
Switching day and night, night and day.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,382,983,184,150.78 + 4,631,361,824,867.85
DOWN 254,217,892.29 + UP 5,176,862,364.89

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,214.27 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,112,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,045.84.
A family of three owes $135,137.51. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,620,875,360.98.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,588,641,931.38.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,408,363,159.40.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 70 reports in 102 days of FY2011 averaging 6.47B$ per report, 4.44B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 741 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.0 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/10/2011 14,014,345,009,018.63 BHO (UP 3,387,467,960,105.55 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,452,721,978,126.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,620,034,529,571.75 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon
01/04/2011 -000,085,302,113.98 ----
01/05/2011 -000,029,576,179.10 ----
01/06/2011 -001,749,774,139.62 --
01/07/2011 +000,022,074,863.06 ------------*******
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon

59,303,677,508.49 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4692181&mesg_id=4692206

[Festivito]

42. Debt: 01/11/2011 14,019,559,567,587.86 (UP 5,214,558,569.23) (Tue, UP a little.)

(Good day.)
Switched.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,383,473,336,671.16 + 4,636,086,230,916.70
UP 490,152,520.38 + UP 4,724,406,048.85

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,214.19 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,120,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,061.55.
A family of three owes $135,184.66. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 7,516,252,891.77.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,762,460,550.36.
The average for the last 32 days would be 5,402,306,765.96.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 71 reports in 103 days of FY2011 averaging 6.45B$ per report, 4.45B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 740 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.0 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/11/2011 14,019,559,567,587.86 BHO (UP 3,392,682,518,674.78 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,457,936,536,696.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,622,784,814,505.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon
01/04/2011 -000,085,302,113.98 ----
01/05/2011 -000,029,576,179.10 ----
01/06/2011 -001,749,774,139.62 --
01/07/2011 +000,022,074,863.06 ------------*******
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon
01/11/2011 +000,490,152,520.38 ------------********

59,583,397,465.99 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4693578&mesg_id=4693636

[Po_d Mainiac]

10. Some interesting quotes and snips

"Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants - but debt is the money of slaves."
Norm Franz, Money and Wealth in the New Millenium
....
The Fed, and particularly the New York Fed, is a largely private institution making decisions not only about its own industry, but is taking actions with public funds that approach and sometimes become de facto public policy decisions with far reaching effects, and is doing so largely in secret. It is therefore highly vulnerable to insider dealing and conflicts of interest. Excessive secrecy is inimical to a free society, for wherever secrecy and power exist, corruption quickly follows.
....
These fellows on Wall Street and in Washington have gotten through most of their lives by using special privilege, private influence, and simply cheating. By now dishonesty and deception is like a familiar friend that they turn to whenever the going gets tough, so how can we be surprised?
....
"The more gross the fraud the more glibly will it go down, and the more greedily be swallowed, since folly will always find faith where impostors will find imprudence."
Charles Caleb Colton
....
"Our government... teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy." Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis

[Po_d Mainiac]

11. The Bernank is told to open the books

http://gata.org/node/9496

GATA today scored a small but perhaps auspicious victory over the Federal Reserve in our lawsuit seeking access to the Fed's secret gold files. The judge presiding over GATA's federal freedom-of-information lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, Ellen Segal Huvelle, granted GATA's motion to order the Fed to produce in complete form for the judge's private review 20 gold-related documents the Fed has sought to keep secret. The judge ordered the Fed to deliver the documents by Friday.

"If the U.S. gold reserves are just sitting somewhere, inert, unencumbered, and unused for surreptitious market intervention, what's the problem with full disclosure?"
Both Bernanke and Greenspan have testified that there have been no transactions in gold. Yet the Fed refuses to disclose documents that suggest circumstantially that there have been.

Even moreso, since the US bullion reserves belong to the people and not to a private banking cartel, there should be no records of any transactions by the Fed. Any transactions should have been handled by Treasury.

[Po_d Mainiac]

12. Ag.. The other white meat

"And now for the big silver report."


We witnessed a massive withdrawal of silver unprecedented in the history of the comex. First there was a smallish 6507 oz of silver deposited to two customers, one being 497 oz and the other 6010 oz). But just look at the huge withdrawals:

Four customers (not dealers) withdrew a total of 1,019,310 oz from the comex vaults. This is real silver leaving from 4 registered vaults. The individual withdrawals are: 579,081, 30,380, 399,994 and 9855 oz.

The dealer (our bankers) also were involved in the withdrawal of silver to the tune of 769,941 oz (there were 2 dealers involved removing 102,866 and 667,875 ozs). When you see this massive drain of silver, the fire is raging. The total silver withdrawal by both dealer and customer totalled an astronomical 1,789,251. The Brink's trucks must have been very busy yesterday.

The comex folk notified us that an amazing 85 notices were sent down for servicing for a total of 425,000 oz of silver. The total number of silver notices sent down so far total 323 or 1,615,000 oz. To obtain what is left to be served, I take the open interest for January at 153 and subtract 85 deliveries leaving a total of 68 notices or 340,000 oz left to be serviced.

Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non delivery month of January is as follows:

1,615,000 oz + 340,000 = 1,955,000 oz (Thursday total = 1,625,000). As promised to you, this number is rising and will continue to rise until the end of the month as our banker cartel scrambles to get any morsel of silver to satisfy the massive demand for this metal. Our bankers are stunned to see such a huge amount of silver options in a traditionally slow month.

I hope everyone caught the Eric Sprott story on Kingworld news that he is having trouble locating silver.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011/01/massive-drainage-of-silver-at.html

[Demeter]

27. They can always convert the empty vaults

to soup kitchens and overnight shelters for the homeless...

[xchrom]

25. interesting. -- if that gold is The Peoples gold --

shouldn't we have an accurate accounting of it published every so often?

[Po_d Mainiac]

35. That would be a reasonable request n/t

[ret5hd]

15. I don't believe the 'toon is accurate. (nt)

[Demeter]

16. It's a Very Clever Idea, Though

[DemReadingDU]

18. In what way?

less/more words in the flagpole? words have no meaning? just wondering what makes it inaccurate?

[ret5hd]

21. I believe the flag should be somewhat higher than "spirited discussion".

[DemReadingDU]

22. Agree there. n/t

[Demeter]

28. And maybe the order of stages should be inverted

Because the inflammatory rhetoric end should be dragging in the mud, while the comity end is where it ought to be all the time, flying high...

[ret5hd]

29. good point (nt)

[Po_d Mainiac]

19. We knew this deal stunk!

SEC Inspector General Probes Khuzami's Role in Citi Settlement
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s internal watchdog is reviewing an allegation that Robert Khuzami, the agency’s top enforcement official, gave preferential treatment to Citigroup Inc. executives in the agency’s $75 million settlement with the firm in July.

snip

According to the letter, the SEC’s staff was prepared to file fraud claims against both individuals. Khuzami ordered his staff to drop the claims after holding a “secret conversation, without telling the staff, with a prominent defense lawyer who is a good friend” of his and “who was counsel for the company, not the individuals affected,” according to a copy of the letter reviewed by Bloomberg News.

snip

On an Oct. 15, 2007, conference call with analysts and investors, Crittenden said Citigroup’s “subprime exposure” was $13 billion at the end of second quarter and had declined during the third quarter.

The figure he cited omitted “super-senior” tranches of collateralized debt obligations and financial guarantees known as liquidity puts that allowed customers to sell debt securities back to Citigroup if credit markets froze, the SEC said. Those products added more than $40 billion of subprime risk that the bank didn’t disclose to investors, the SEC said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/sec-watchdog-probes-enforcement-chief-over-citigroup-settlement.html

[DoBotherMe]

24. Why do these people get to play with our money?

I mean every circulating US dollar was made from our sweat. It all just makes me sick. Dana ; )

[xchrom]

20. kick

[maddogesq]

23. Holy Spike Batman, look at AONE go!

Yeah man, I bet right on those batteries. Go go go...this is too fun!

[Demeter]

30. Tonight, Tonight, Won't be just any night

Tonight is the annual meeting for the condo, election of board members, annual reports, yours truly doing the honors as Treasurer... I almost feel prepared, even.

Last night was remove neighbor's sutures, shovel snow, brood...I've figured out why I'm sleeping better. Partly it's getting rid of the dead mattress, the other part is sleeping in a North-facing (dark) room...

I used to feel like I was bogged down in mud to the shoulder. Now I feel that, while I'm still bogged down in mud to the shoulder, there's been some forward progress. And maybe, to be truthful, the mud has subsided a little bit...but it's still more than waist high. Sigh.

[Demeter]

32. Goldman opens books to scrutiny, no wider shake-up

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110111/bs_nm/us_goldmansachs_report

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc pledged to be more open about how it makes money and to put the interests of clients ahead of its own in an effort to rebut criticism it acted more like a hedge fund than a bank during the credit boom and misled investors.

Goldman revealed for the first time how much it made from trading and investing on its own behalf, which many investors have suspected is a key source of the bank's profits, during the first three quarters of the year.

The bank also made structural changes to its divisions, but there was no major management shake-up, leaving in place Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein...The report, released on Tuesday, recommends creating at least three internal committees and focuses mainly on disclosure and oversight. It makes few recommendations for how Goldman will change the way it does business day to day and some observers questioned how much will change.

"I'm not terribly convinced it produces a new culture," said Cornelius Hurley, a professor and director of Boston University's Morin Center for Banking and Financial Law. "It seems to be part of their concerted public relations effort."

Still, Goldman did shed new light on the heretofore murky realm of proprietary trading profits, revealing that its investment and lending group -- which includes the bank's bets with its own money -- accounted for nearly 30 percent of pre-tax earnings in the first three quarters of 2010....

[Demeter]

33. A class warfare fix for Social Security

http://www.salon.com/technology/how_the_world_works/2011/01/12/social_security_and_life_expectancy/index.html


....A study published by the Congressional Budget Office in 2008 found that "there is a growing disparity in life expectancy between individuals with high and low income and between those with more and less education."

The implications of a continued widening of the gap in life expectancy by socioeconomic status are clear for Social Security ... a widening gap would... reduce the program's progressivity -- the extent to which it redistributes resources from high-income to low-income beneficiaries on a lifetime basis.

The numbers tell as brutal a story of the consequences of socioeconomic stratification as one could ask for. The British researchers found that for the cohort of men born between 1972 and 1976, the average life expectancy of a member of the highest socioeconomic class was 71.9 and for the lowest, 66.5. For the cohort born between 2002-2005, life expectancy for those at the top had risen by 8.1 years, to 80. For those at the bottom, only 6.2, to 72.7. In 30 years, the "life-span inequality gap" had risen from 5.4 years to 7.3. A study on U.S. life expectancy by researchers at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services came up with similar evidence of "substantial and increasing disparities in US life expectancy over time"; between 1980 and 2000 "the gap between the least-deprived and most-deprived groups widening from 2.8 years in 1980-82 to 4.5 years in 1998-2000."

The CBO theorizes that "differences in the availability of high-quality health care before age 65 and in lifelong health habits might play an important role" in explaining the different life expectancies for different socioeconomic ages. So perhaps in a country where everyone had access to good healthcare, there wouldn't be a growing disparity in expected life spans. But as long as that disparity does exist, and as long as it keeps getting worse, an across-the-board hike in the Social Security retirement age would be one of the most regressive ways we could "fix" the jewel in the American social welfare crown.

[Demeter]

34. Six reasons America is only the ninth-most free economy in the world ACCORDING TO ?

The Heritage Foundation OF COURSE!, a Washington, D.C.-based free market think tank, along with the Wall Street Journal, released its 17th annual Index of Economic Freedom. While the report contains a lot of good news for less-developed nations with emerging economies around the world, the picture isn’t so good for the United States.

For the second year in a row, the U.S. has actually fallen in economic freedom, from a score of 78.0 to 77.8, at a time when more than half of the countries around the world experienced an increase in their economic freedom ranking. The U.S. currently ranks as the 9th freest country economically, but its score puts it in the “mostly free,” only the second best category to be in.

According to the list, the U.S ranks behind Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Canada, Ireland and Denmark, in that order.

According to the study’s authors, America’s response to the economic downturn is responsible for the U.S.’s poor performance.

“But policy responses by the U.S. government to the economic slowdown have hurt the United State’s standing – and that of the region,” they write in a press release. “Government bailouts, burdensome regulations, loose monetary policy and increasingly protectionist trade policy all contributed…”

North America was the only continent that experience an overall decline in economic freedom.

Below are six specific reasons the study cites for America’s decline in economic freedom...SEE LINK

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/01/12/six-reasons-america-is-only-the-ninth-most-free-economy-in-the-world/#ixzz1Aqn8VJHb

HERITAGE FOUNDATION AND ITS ILK ARE THE ENGINES DEPRIVING AMERICAN PEOPLE OF THEIR ECONOMIC FREEDOMS!

[Demeter]

36. Lehman: Regulators Chose to Deny, Extend and Pretend

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/lehman-regulators-chose-to-deny-extend-and-pretend.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

The Lehman Examiner’s report gives an unintentionally damning portrayal, both of the the structure of financial regulation in the US and how regulators failed to use the powers they had effectively.

Section III.A.6: Government shows that even with its imperfect grasp of the situation, the authorities recognized Lehman had a large negative net worth. Yet rather than move decisively towards an unwind, they proceeded inertially. They urged Lehman CEO Dick Fuld to find a rescuer (who would invest in that garbage barge, particularly when Andrew Ross Sorkin’s account makes clear that Fuld’s moves were so obviously desperate and clumsy as to be certain to fail) and also promoted the notion of an LTCM-style “share the pain” resolution. Yet with the rest of the industry weak, and the magnitude of hole in Lehman’s balance sheet a mystery, these courses of action had low odds of success from the outset (indeed, the “Lehman weekend” in which the authorities almost bulldozed through a deal, seemed designed to avoid sober analysis of how bad things were at the failing investment bank).

Two unanswered questions stand out. The first is that even with the extensive Jenner & Block report, we still do not have even a rough sense of how big the shortfall in Lehman’s equity was at the time of its collapse. We know it was hiding $50 billion of liabilities at the end of its fiscal second quarter through its Repo 105 program, but that only tells us the size of one of the cover-up mechanisms. The Lehman report indicates that William Dudley at the New York Fed thought Lehman might require a $60 billion bailout entity, with Lehman providing $5 billion of equity, which says the authorities pegged the unreported shortfall at $55 billion.

But the numbers do not add up. The bankruptcy administrator has put the losses at $130 billion (although that number is still in play) and was (remarkably) denying that Lehman had a solvency problem at the time of its collapse, when the tenor of the Government section suggests the reverse. In addition, Lehman’s net worth as of May 31, 2008 was reported at $26 billion. So if we accept the $130 billion estimate, the swing from reported net worth to losses realized was over $150 billion. We still have no satisfactory explanation of how that took place. The bankruptcy administrator, Alvarez & Marsal, blamed some of the losses on the “disorderly collapse”, but assigned “only” a maximum of $75 billion. We do not know the composition of the value shortfalls that led Lehman to play Repo 105 games, which presumably totaled $50 billion (some sus items have been singled out, but that falls short of an explanation). So not only do we lack a decent explanation of that $50 billion, even if we accept the high end of the Alvarez & Marsal estimate, we have an additional $25 billion missing in action...

[Ghost Dog]

37. Bernanke Vs. Trichet as Obama Defies Cameron-Merkel (Update1)

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Three years ago, when the world economy was in mortal danger, a series of coordinated and unprecedented measures brought it back from the brink. Today, the patient, still sickly, must endure the sight of doctors arguing over what to do next.

For a brief period starting in the autumn of 2008, leaders of the world’s richest nations moved in lockstep to slash interest rates, rescue banks and pump billions of dollars of stimulus into their ailing economies. That was followed by a declaration by the Group of 20 nations in April 2009 that financial firms needed more regulation to prevent another global meltdown.

...

At one extreme sit the austerity advocates led by the U.K. and German governments, who say the path back to prosperity starts with a retrenchment of the welfare state. On the other side is U.S. President Barack Obama, who ended 2010 striking a deal with congressional Republicans to extend George W. Bush’s income tax cuts as unemployment hovered near 10 percent -- a move that boosted the stock market and led some economists to forecast stronger growth in America for 2011.

Central Bank Debate

Central bankers are also taking different tacks. In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke contends that more direct economic pump priming -- known as quantitative easing -- is necessary, while European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has inched his institution toward an exit from emergency measures.

/... http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayWPvjrPat8o

Run up to Davos later this month, where the "disagreements within and across countries over monetary, fiscal, regulatory and currency policies," as Roubini calls them, shall probably remain largely unresolved.

[Demeter]

38. Fed Responsible for Crash in Money Multiplier & Failure of Economy to Recover/ Washington’s Blog

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/guest-post-m1-money-multiplier-still-crashing-each-1-increase-in-monetary-base-results-in-only-79-cent-increase-in-money-supply.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

Greg Mankiw noted in January 2009:

Econ prof Bill Seyfried of Rollins College emails me:

Here’s an interesting fact that you may not have seen yet. The M1 money multiplier just slipped below 1. So each $1 increase in reserves (monetary base) results in the money supply increasing by $0.95 (OK, so banks have substantially increased their holding of excess reserves while the M1 money supply hasn’t changed by much).

Since January 2009, the M1 Money Multiplier has crashed further, to .786 in the U.S. as of February 24, 2010:

SEE LINK FOR GRAPH

That means that – for every $1 increase in the monetary base – the money supply only increases by 79 cents.

Why is M1 crashing?

Because the banks continue to build up their excess reserves, instead of lending out money:


MUCH MORE DATA, ANALYSIS, UPDATES AND GRAPHIC PORN! SEE LINK

[Pale Blue Dot]

39. Fed Releases New POMO Schedule, To Monetize $112 Billion In Bonds And Prop Up Stocks On 18 Out Of 19

Trading Days.

The New York Fed's equity crash prevention team of Sack-Frost has just released its most recent POMO schedule. Over the next month, ending on February 9, the Fed will purchase about $112 billion in debt in 18 discrete operations. And for the first time unlike the prior two QE2 monthly schedules, there is not one dual POMO day. From the release: "Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $112 billion. This represents $80 billion in purchases of the announced $600 billion purchase program and $32 billion in purchases associated with principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-January and mid-February." The days when there is no POMO will be Monday, January 17 and Wednesday, January 26. All other days have a POMO operation scheduled.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-releases-new-pomo-schedule-monetize-112-billion-bonds-and-prop-stocks-18-out-19-trading-

[Demeter]

41. So, All Months Ending in R?

Plus all the ones that don't...

[Pale Blue Dot]

40. The Global Commodity Equity Index Hits 27 Month High

Quote the chairman: "This fear of inflation is way overstated. We've looked at it very, very carefully. We've analyzed it every which way... We will not allow inflation to rise above 2% or less... I am 100% certain i can control inflation." Presenting the Jefferies global commodity index (CRB) which just hit a 27 month high.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/global-commodity-equity-index-hits-27-month-high

[Demeter]

43. That's not fairy dust--them's happy pills!

If the SEC can't do anything, maybe the DEA will. (shakes head at the market folly)