STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, January 21, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, January 21, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 21, 2011

Dow 11,822.80 -2.49 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,704.29 -21.07 (-0.78%)
S&P 500 1,280.26 -1.66 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.42 -0.03
30-Year Bond 4.59 -0.02

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. No reports today. nt

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil languishes below $90 amid China growth worries

BANGKOK – Oil prices languished under $90 a barrel Friday in Asia after a big fall the day before on increased expectations that China, the world's biggest energy consumer, will take more aggressive steps to slow its torrid economic growth.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was up 15 cents at $89.74 a barrel at late afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost $2.22 to settle at $89.59 on Thursday.

Oil and other commodities have taken a hit from news that China's economy defied expectations to speed up in the fourth quarter while inflation remained elevated.

Traders speculated that means China's government will try further measures to control cost of living increases. China has had a robust appetite for commodities from oil to soybeans as its economy has boomed in the past year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. ...and it looks like ANOTHER snow day for me today.

This is getting tiresome. In addition, all of this snow has to be having a negative economic impact on the northeast.

Back to bed. See you all later!

[Demeter]

4. How Many Days Does that Make, PBD?

The year we moved to Massachusetts, 1969, the kids were making up school days until the 4th of July, IIRC.

[Pale Blue Dot]

36. Technically it's only been the third,

but it's been incredibly disruptive to the educational process. Due to the winter break and various other January holidays, I've only seen each of my students twice this whole month.

I always love the first snow day, and then remember why they're a pain in the ass. :-)

[Demeter]

5. Court Weighs Whether Corporations Have Personal Privacy Rights

OH FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!

http://www.truth-out.org/court-weighs-whether-corporations-have-personal-privacy-rights67002

The claim that corporations have personal privacy rights met with widespread skepticism on Wednesday during a lively Supreme Court argument.

A year ago, the court ruled in the Citizens United decision that corporations and unions had a First Amendment right to spend money in candidate elections. But that decision, which involved a question of constitutional law, did not come up at the argument on Wednesday, which considered the quite different issue of what Congress meant when it exempted some files from disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act.

The exemption at issue in the case, Federal Communications Commission v. AT&T Inc., No. 09-1279, protects information that "could reasonably be expected to constitute an unwarranted invasion of personal privacy." AT&T invoked the exemption in seeking to block the release of documents it had provided to the F.C.C., which conducted an investigation into claims of overcharges by the company in a program to provide equipment and services to schools. The documents were sought by a trade association representing some of the company's competitors.

The United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, in Philadelphia, had ruled for the company, relying in part on a definition of "person" in the law that included corporations. But several justices said it was too much of a leap to go from saying that corporations might be "persons" for some purposes to saying that their "personal privacy" could be invaded...

[tclambert]

14. Thorny problem for Roberts Court, Inc. because they don't believe people have a right to privacy,

yet they want to find in favor of the corporation always. Will they blatantly give corporations a right they fight against for individuals? The right to privacy comes up in abortion cases, don'tcha know, and the Patriot Act violates the right to privacy all over the place. They don't want to undermine their future cases on those subjects.

Oh, who am I kidding? Consistency? Hypocrisy? They don't care about those things. If big corporations want them to rule the sky is green, they will.

[Demeter]

16. good point

Still, the fact that the Supremes didn't immediately roll over for a belly rub is curious.

Maybe they are going to deny EVERYONE, corporate or corporeal, any right to privacy? Wouldn't that be a direct violation of the Constitution, and the definition of fascism?

[Demeter]

6. Evidence of an American Plutocracy: The Larry Summers Story

OR AT LEAST, CRONY CAPITALISM

http://www.truth-out.org/evidence-american-plutocracy-the-larry-summers-story67007

“So here is the evidence for an American plutocracy of a narrow and discrete but hardly harmless sort. Wall Street seduced the economics profession not through overt corruption, but by aligning the incentives of economists with its own. It was very easy for academic economists to move from universities to central banks to hedge funds — a tightly knit world in which everyone shared the same views about the self-regulating and beneficial effects of open capital markets. The alliance was enormously profitable for everyone: The academics got big consulting fees, and Wall Street got legitimacy. And it has kept the system going despite the enormous policy failures it has generated, not to exclude the recent crisis.”
—Francis Fukuyama, The American Interest, January 2011

Larry Summers’ path to the Obama administration, and his record within it, are symptomatic of a new American plutocracy, and his new job at Harvard will keep the gears of corruption greased.

Summers rose to power under the protective wing of Wall Street and Democratic Party mogul Robert Rubin. He aggressively advanced Rubin’s program of financial deregulation and faithfully rescued his cronies when deregulation went wrong. Despite the economic catastrophes these policies have contributed to, Summers and other Rubinites have continued their political ascendancy in recent years, filling top positions in the Obama administration.

Obama’s economic program, developed almost entirely by Rubin’s proteges, has received widespread popular condemnation for bailing out Wall Street while leaving Main Street out in the cold. Summers has become a defining symbol of the latest sold-out administration within a sold-out system of government. His departure from the White House is more a reflection of this public anger than a personal career choice...

[Demeter]

7. Manifest Haiti: Monsanto's Destiny

http://www.truth-out.org/the-new-earthquake-manifest-haiti-monsantos-destiny66930

"A fabulous Easter gift," commented Monsanto Director of Development Initiatives Elizabeth Vancil. Nearly 60,000 seed sacks of hybrid corn seeds and other vegetable seeds were donated to post-earthquake Haiti by Monsanto. In observance of World Environment Day, June 4, 2010, roughly 10,000 rural Haitian farmers gathered in Papaye to march seven kilometers to Hinche in celebration of this gift. Upon arrival, these rewarded farmers took their collective Easter baskets of more than 400 tons of vegetable seeds and burned them all. "Long live the native maize seed!" they chanted in unison. "Monsanto's GMO & hybrid seed violate peasant agriculture!"

[Demeter]

8. Think China Has a Big Stake in US Business? Not Yet

CHINA DOESN'T NEED MANUFACTURING--IT NEEDS LAND AND OTHER RESOURCES, AND IS WILLING TO PICK UP A GOVERNMENT OR TWO ON THE WAY..

http://www.truth-out.org/think-china-has-a-big-stake-us-business-not-yet66921

Washington - China holds almost $1 trillion in U.S. government bonds, but it's made only modest investments in the nuts and bolts of the U.S. economy.

China lags far behind its Asian and European competitors in direct investment in the U.S. — taking stakes in manufacturers, suppliers, warehouses and other businesses. In fact, cash-rich China is near the back of the pack.

Chinese companies invested only $791 million in U.S. firms in 2009, the last full year of data available from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. South Korean companies invested $12 billion, Japanese firms $264.2 billion, German firms $218 billion, and British companies $453 billion.

As Chinese President Hu Jintao visits the U.S. this week, he's likely to announce some new business deals, as has been his practice when visiting other nations.

To be sure, China's state companies are shopping abroad, just not here. A Chinese silicon company is preparing to buy a Norwegian metals giant for $2.6 billion. State-owned PetroChina invested almost $2 billion last year in Canadian oil producers. Late last year the China Petrochemical Corp. took a big stake in Brazilian offshore oil exploration...

[tclambert]

15. Oh, I got it! Let's sell them Alaska!

That would solve so many problems. So many.

[xchrom]

17. or florida. nt

[Demeter]

18. Alaska is the least exploited wilderness--China would snap it up

Alaska is our last cupboard of canned goods--resources.

[Roland99]

50. hey wait!

:P

[Demeter]

52. Not to worry--China has NO interest in Florida

[xchrom]

59. i almost got away with it! nt

[Fuddnik]

63. We could probably get a decent buck selling Texas back to Mexico.

:hide:

[Roland99]

67. we could sell some bridges in NY. Maybe some oceanfront property in AZ....

[Po_d Mainiac]

70. I hear Mdm Gold has some nice frontage available! n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

76. I do not. I mean, it's not AVAILABLE. ;-)

Po_d Mainiac is a new grandpa again today, so I'll cut him some slack. Otherwise I would NEVER tolerate his insults.

:hi:



TG

[Demeter]

83. I don't know, Tansy

I haven't had a man speak admiringly of my frontage in the longest time...

[Tansy_Gold]

93. Oh, you win!! Hands down, da winnuh!

we were trading insults at coffee today, cracking each other up with unintended slights, but honey, you are the champion!

Best laugh I've had in a looooooong while!


TG

[AnneD]

95. OK.....

I have some frontage left-but it seem to be eroding a bit. :rofl:
Demeter, UDAMAN. :thumbsup:

[Roland99]

97. I love this place!!

:)


And, fwiw, I've shed 13 lbs off my frontage this month. The ol' Homer Gut is soon to be gone forever!

[Po_d Mainiac]

91. ...

:evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

79. Alright Mr Fudd......

Even though most of Texas below Houston is Hispanic, I don't think the President of Mexico would want the added headache. There is a lot of bad blood.

:spank:

[Demeter]

82. I Doubt We Could Sell Texas to Anybody

There is no greater fool than W and he already owns it, or close enough.

[AnneD]

94. When W was Governor....

we were smart enough not to give him any REAL power- and he doesn't own diddly. He is a trust fund baby (another reason to bring back the inheritance tax). It is H that has the money and most of the serious connections. At least the imbecile will get a nice pension.

And let me AGAIN remind folks...BOTH BUSHES ARE NOT FROM TEXAS-Connecticut and their inbreeding program are responsible for that. They are all hat and no cattle. We cannot restrict people wishing to come here :(

[AnneD]

69. Whachbitchinbout......

If China snaps up Florida-no more deficits. And they tend to execute their corrupt officials and CEO's. At last, prosecution of the guilty.

Of course your beaches may be over run with Chinese tourists, but it could be worse. I don't think they can damage the sensitive environment more than what developers already have. I see win-win.

[Roland99]

77. If one thinks about it that way....

Be nice to see Rick Scott face the fire. :)

And more Chinese on the beach won't be too bad. They can't be any worse than the hordes of Brazilians at Disney....

[kickysnana]

74. Texas, Alabama and Florida

[AnneD]

80. Florida is a yes....

Alabama a maybe (I mean really, would we miss it), Mississippi a maybe (again, would we really miss it-all our stats would be raised).

Texas would be a hard sell.:smoke:

[kickysnana]

85. All the good folks there can come with the rest of us.

[Demeter]

90. Well, Maybe Not to Michigan, Not today, anyway

[AnneD]

92. Maybe it is because I don't live there....

but I have great hope for a smaller vibrant Detroit. I like what they are doing to attract the arts.

[Demeter]

99. We aren't going to reach 15F this weekend

:scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared:

and that's if you aren't subtracting for windchill....

[Tansy_Gold]

100. We probably aren't either.

From the other direction! :evilgrin:




TG, TT

[xchrom]

9. Recommend

[Demeter]

10. The Euro's Flailing Threatens Europe KRUGMAN

http://www.truth-out.org/the-eur-flailing-threatens-europe66926

(THE EURO IS BOTH A POLITICAL AND AN ECONOMIC PROJECT)...ever since Robert Schuman, the French foreign minister, proposed the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community, which eventually led to the establishment of what is now the European Union.

In a declaration on May 9, 1950, Mr. Schuman said: “Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity… The setting up of this powerful productive unit, open to all countries willing to take part and bound ultimately to provide all the member countries with the basic elements of industrial production on the same terms, will lay a true foundation for their economic unification.”

His strategy was to deliver a series of economic integration plans that would do double duty. First, they had to be economically productive. Second, they would also have to create “de facto solidarity,” moving Europe ever closer to political union — necessary because of the continent’s history of war.

For 60 years, this strategy has been highly successful. Europe is one of the modern world’s greatest, most inspiring stories — peace, prosperity and democracy have flourished where once there were minefields and barbed wire.

But the entire European project depends on each move toward integration’s meeting both the political and economic criteria. It is by no means clear that the euro passes this test, because the underlying economics are questionable...

[xchrom]

12. it turned into a union where the 'strong' took advantage of the 'weak'.

it would be interesting to map that out and see where the weakness show up over time.

i.e. greece which we're all familiar with.
but banksters and financialists worked a number on that country -- where exactly was that starting point.

and spain? and the leftist government there -- how do they avoid an implosion?

[Demeter]

11. Making Social Security More Progressive and the Games They Play in Washington

TODAY'S MUST READ AND BOOKMARK!

http://www.truth-out.org/making-social-security-more-progressive-and-games-they-play-washington66925



The insiders in Washington really, really want to cut Social Security and they are prepared to say or do anything to do it. Among the latest lines is that they want to make Social Security more "progressive." This sort of rhetoric appeared in a report from the "liberal" Center for American Progress (CAP) in a plan that proposes substantial cuts in benefits...for people who earned an average of $60,000 or $70,000 during their working lifetimes. While such people earned more than most workers, such salaries don't quite put them on a par with Bill Gates.

The reason why CAP wants to cut the benefits of factory workers and schoolteachers is because this is where you have to go if you want to have any substantial reductions in Social Security payments. Peter Peterson, the billionaire investment banker, is fond of telling audiences that he doesn't need his Social Security check...However true this might be, Peterson's Social Security check, along with those received by all the other millionaires and billionaires in the country, really doesn't make any difference for the program's finances. There are not many rich people, and because Social Security is a progressive program, the billionaires' Social Security checks are not much bigger than the checks received by ordinary workers.

This means it doesn't matter for the program whether or not Peterson and his wealthy friends get their Social Security checks. When they talk about cutting benefits for "affluent retirees" or making the program more "progressive," they are talking about cutting benefits for schoolteachers, firefighters and other middle-income workers...This is not the only trick that the Social Security cutters are playing these days. One proposal from both Bowles-Simpson and CAP is to change the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) for retirees. They propose using an alternative index for the cost of living adjustment that they claim is more "accurate."

The reality is that these people have no clue whether their preferred index is more accurate in measuring the rate of inflation experienced by retirees. Their index was not designed for this purpose. What they do know is that their index provides a lower COLA leading to lower benefits. After ten years, the COLA provided by their index will have reduced the benefits for a retiree by roughly 3.0 percent. After 20 years, the decline would be 6.0 percent. This would be a substantial cut in income for many people who are entirely dependent on their Social Security and just getting by now...If accuracy is the issue, rather than cutting benefits, we could ask the Bureau of Labor Statistics to design a price index that specifically measures the rate of inflation experienced by the elderly. There is little interest in Washington in this exercise because the evidence we have now indicates an elderly index would lead to a higher COLA, not a lower one. So, in the interest of accuracy, let's be clear: the Social Security cutters want to see a lower COLA for Social Security beneficiaries. They do not give a damn about having an accurate one.

[xchrom]

13. one of the first things that jumps out at me -- is it's another plan that divides us

into groups.

that's how cutting -- reducing -- limiting -- whatever you want to call it -- SS is going to happen.

if they don't touch your SS -- why no worries. or if they touch it 25 years out -- what me worry?

[Demeter]

19. Carbon trade cyber-theft hits €30m

Cyber-thieves have stolen as much as €30m in carbon allowances from the European Union’s emissions trading system, say authorities

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/TWK799/M9M127/VTVRG/QFWWMW/TP4715/9A/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=21


HOW CAN YOU STEAL AN INTANGIBLE?

[Demeter]

26. ANSWER: WITH A COMPUTER

Cyber-theft halts EU emissions trading

EU emissions trading system faces its longest disruption as authorities suspend trading activities to combat cyber-thieves

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/IOCBMM/A7BDRX/MJTKN/V1IKQ6/WLKAS7/LE/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=20

[Demeter]

20. Hu defends Beijing’s currency policy

Hu Jintao, China’s president, defended Beijing’s currency policy, telling a business audience in Washington that the Chinese economy had helped create 14m jobs around the world through its growing imports

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/TWK799/M9M127/VTVRG/QFWWMW/72NJZ9/9A/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=21

[Festivito]

21. Debt: 01/19/2011 14,053,512,150,448.45 (UP 1,131,319,905.65) (Wed, UP a little.)

(Good day.)
Cat's in bed.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,415,973,770,693.35 + 4,637,538,379,755.10
UP 9,950,983.18 + UP 1,121,368,922.47

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,213.60 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,177,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,162.32.
A family of three owes $135,486.97. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 7,396,177,403.85.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,670,402,676.29.
The average for the last 33 days would be 5,154,911,523.90.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 76 reports in 111 days of FY2011 averaging 6.47B$ per report, 4.43B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 732 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/19/2011 14,053,512,150,448.45 BHO (UP 3,426,635,101,535.37 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,491,889,119,556.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,617,473,230,974.74 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon
01/04/2011 -000,085,302,113.98 ----
01/05/2011 -000,029,576,179.10 ----
01/06/2011 -001,749,774,139.62 --
01/07/2011 +000,022,074,863.06 ------------*******
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon
01/11/2011 +000,490,152,520.38 ------------********
01/12/2011 -000,273,054,954.79 ---
01/13/2011 -005,996,045,152.69 --
01/14/2011 +000,146,255,477.48 ------------********
01/18/2011 +038,613,327,669.01 ------------********** Tue
01/19/2011 +000,009,950,983.18 ------------******

88,487,739,963.47 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4703531&mesg_id=4703805

[Festivito]

101. Debt: 01/20/2011 14,056,313,474,932.58 (UP 2,801,324,484.13) (Thu, DOWN a little.)

(Good day.)
Ticket takers close at 4PM.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,415,286,484,402.29 + 4,641,026,990,530.29
DOWN 687,286,291.06 + UP 3,488,610,775.19

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,213.52 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,184,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,170.28.
A family of three owes $135,510.84. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,167,486,351.60.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,261,739,536.22.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,059,747,938.28.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 77 reports in 112 days of FY2011 averaging 6.42B$ per report, 4.42B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 731 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 18.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/20/2011 14,056,313,474,932.58 BHO (UP 3,429,436,426,019.50 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,494,690,444,040.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,612,160,822,097.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon
01/04/2011 -000,085,302,113.98 ----
01/05/2011 -000,029,576,179.10 ----
01/06/2011 -001,749,774,139.62 --
01/07/2011 +000,022,074,863.06 ------------*******
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon
01/11/2011 +000,490,152,520.38 ------------********
01/12/2011 -000,273,054,954.79 ---
01/13/2011 -005,996,045,152.69 --
01/14/2011 +000,146,255,477.48 ------------********
01/18/2011 +038,613,327,669.01 ------------********** Tue
01/19/2011 +000,009,950,983.18 ------------******
01/20/2011 -000,687,286,291.06 ---

87,634,675,629.03 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4704903&mesg_id=4704982

[Demeter]

22. Morgan Stanley defers 60% of bonuses

Morgan Stanley has sought to pre-empt new rules capping cash pay-outs on Wall Street, deferring 60 per cent of employees’ 2010 bonuses.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/DHGUVV/5CUWLN/B49CK/RNXXC7/BM13FL/QR/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=21

[Demeter]

23. Four to leave Hewlett-Packard board in revamp

Hewlett-Packard added five new directors to its board, giving majority control of the world’s top-selling technology company to people who weren’t involved in the controversial August ouster of chief executive Mark Hurd.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/DHGUVV/5CUWLN/B49CK/RNXXC7/IY6BTM/QR/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=21

AND MEG WHITMAN! DON'T FORGET HER!

REVOLVING DOOR OF LOSERS, IMO.

[Demeter]

25. New HP board members to reopen Hurd investigation

Hewlett-Packard board members who took office after the departure of Mark Hurd, chief executive, will oversee a new investigation of the circumstances that led to his exit

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/IOCBMM/A7BDRX/MJTKN/V1IKQ6/GKG326/LE/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=20

[Demeter]

24. Main Street banks outshine Goldman

The diverging fortunes of Main Street and Wall Street were highlighted as a trading slump hit Goldman Sachs’ fourth-quarter results, while Wells Fargo and US Bancorp benefited from the gradually healing fortunes of US consumers

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/IOCBMM/A7BDRX/MJTKN/V1IKQ6/ZBIMFO/LE/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=20

[Demeter]

27. Brazil ups rates and signals more tightening

Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points and signalled further tightening in the weeks to come as Latin America’s biggest economy seeks to rein in a worrying surge in inflation

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/M2ZOXX/OJ4UYM/JQU4J/NSMA76/269WWH/D5/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=20

[Demeter]

28. Japan hits ‘critical point’ on state debt

Country has hit a ‘critical point’ where it risks losing investor confidence if politicians fail to reach agreement on how to rein in the ballooning national debt, a cabinet minister has warned

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/M2ZOXX/OJ4UYM/JQU4J/NSMA76/9ZPQQ8/D5/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=20


THIS IS OUR GHOST OF CHRISTMAS YET TO COME...AS WE FOLLOW THE PIED PIPER, RUBIN.

[Demeter]

29. Cutting Taxes Is Breaking The Economy (US)

http://blogs.alternet.org/speakeasy/2011/01/18/cutting-taxes-is-breaking-the-economy/

...The U.S., in case you haven’t noticed, has become a debtor nation, borrowing to finance war, private healthcare, bank bailouts, and did I mention low taxation. While the Times would have readers worry about Europe, Europeans have noticed the obvious: the U.S. and in particular U.S. super rich and corporations are under-taxed...

[Demeter]

30. How Can the Richest 1 Percent Be Winning This Brutal Class War Against 99% of Us?

SHORT ANSWER--THEY CHEAT...IT'S CALLED ABUSE OF POWER, OR BUYING A GOVERNMENT.

http://www.alternet.org/story/149596/how_can_the_richest_1_percent_be_winning_this_brutal_class_war_against_99%25_of_us


...They have money.

We have votes.

Theoretically, that means we should have the government. Theoretically, government should be a countervailing force against the excesses of big money, take the long view for the good of the nation, and watch out for the majority. Let alone for the poor and downtrodden.

What we actually have is one political party that is flat out the party of big money and another party that sells out to big money.

Well, at least we have safety nets.

George Bush’s biggest regret is that he didn’t privatize social security. Why so eager?

One reason is that it is a big pile of money. Absolutely gigantic. It drives the bankers and brokers crazy that they can’t get their hands on it.

The other is ideological hatred. Stephen Moore (senior fellow at the Cato Institute, contributing editor of National Review and president of the Free Enterprise Fund) wrote, "Social Security is the soft underbelly of the welfare state. If you can jab your spear through that, you can undermine the whole welfare state."

Where Bush failed, Obama has now taken the first step....

[Demeter]

31. Analysis: What is Plan B if China dumps its U.S. debt?

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70H5NX20110118?pageNumber=1

When borrowing money it's always good to have a Plan B in case a big creditor pulls the plug. That should be true whether the sum is a few thousand dollars or about a trillion, the size of the United States government's debt to China...China is officially the United States' biggest foreign creditor, with roughly $900 billion in Treasury holdings -- or over $1 trillion with Hong Kong's holdings included.

That means it could do severe damage to U.S. debt markets if it suddenly started selling large amounts.

Most experts say if there were signs of this happening, the U.S. government would go for a combination of persuading Americans to buy more U.S. debt, the same way they did in World War II, and finding friendly foreign governments to make additional purchases.

Banks could be called on to increase their holdings of treasuries, and as a last resort, the Federal Reserve could also be called on to fill the gap, though this could risk turning any dollar weakness into a slump...

[Tansy_Gold]

34. In the No one could possibly have imagined category: Socialism is GOOD for business!!!

thanks to Syrinx who posted this in GD

Especially note the source: Inc. Magazine. Kinda makes you go hmmmmmm. . . . ..


http://www.inc.com/magazine/20110201/in-norway-start-ups-say-ja-to-socialism.html

We venture to the very heart of the hell that is Scandinavian socialism—and find out that it’s not so bad. Pricey, yes, but a good place to start and run a company. What exactly does that suggest about the link between taxes and entrepreneurship?

*****

Rates of start-up creation here are among the highest in the developed world, and Norway has more entrepreneurs per capita than the United States, according to the latest report by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, a Boston-based research consortium. A 2010 study released by the U.S. Small Business Administration reported a similar result: Although America remains near the top of the world in terms of entrepreneurial aspirations -- that is, the percentage of people who want to start new things— in terms of actual start-up activity, our country has fallen behind not just Norway but also Canada, Denmark, and Switzerland.

<end snips>

Very long article, lots of comments, too.




TG, TT

[Demeter]

40. But, But, But, Socialism DEMANDS That You Share the Wealth

with all those "other" people, people not like you, "not our kind"...

The zenophobic, other-phobic half (is it only half? I haven't seen any figures on that) of the American nation simply cannot tolerate this thought...hell, they don't even want to pay out social security, which is a contract already paid for, to people who "don't look like us"!

[Tansy_Gold]

64. Well, that's the point.

Yeah, Norway is a small country with a much more homogeneous population than ours, but I'm sick and fucking tired of that being an excuse.

And I'm gonna go off on a rant here that I really don't have time for, but I figure it's safer buried in our little thread than elsewhere.

I'm tired of the accommodations made to religion in this country, because invariably those accommodations have the latent effect of making sure there is less and less and less integation on a public level. A junior high school girl is allowed to play basketball wearing religious garb and the decision to allow that is praised. Excuse me? Do you want to pray or do you want to play bsketball? Do you want to be a Muslim or do you want to be a basketball player? You can't expose your hair, but you can expose your legs and bounce your boobs when you run up and down the court?

This is absurd! It's okay for her to hang around with girls exposing their hair, but somehow or other she's untainted because she covers hers? FUCK THIS SHIT.

Even the catholic church did away with a lot of that medieval superstitious claptrap 40 years ago and allowed nuns and priests to dress more like the people they were (supposed to be) ministering to.

It's this monstrous cultural clutching at the remnants of our tribalism that prevent us from truly becoming a unified nation. Not that this is anything new. Invading Europeans slaughtered the indigenous people rather than recognize them as human beings. Africans were enslaved and Irish were told to keep off the grass. In some places Greeks were accepted as "white" because they had the money to buy the votes of those who would determine what color they were. Jews couldn't get into certain colleges or play on certain golf courses. Married women couldn't get into medical school.

And the problem is that we don't have any public voices decrying these absurdities.

Maybe you don't think they're absurdities. Maybe you think they're legitimate demonstrations of respect for personal cultural differences.

But I think that when measured against their value to the progressive ideals of equality of opportunity for all, they do more harm than good. They perpetuate a system that is antithetical to equality, a virus within the communal host.

As a nation, we made great strides toward overcoming these tribalisms half a century ago. We integrated the military. We integrated the schools. We saw people of color, we saw women achieve positions of poer and authority. IT IS POSSIBLE, but only if we don't give in -- as too many of "us" too often do -- to those who would have us turn around and go backward.


Tansy Gold, who can't skate backward either

[xchrom]

43. +2

[Demeter]

32. JPMorgan Is Making Big Money From Food Stamps!

I WAS WONDERING WHY THERE HADN'T BEEN CALLS TO EVISCERATE THE FOOD STAMP PROGRAM THIS TIME AROUND...IT'S ANOTHER ASPECT OF ZOMBIE BANK BAILOUT!

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27301.htm

JP Morgan is the largest processor of food stamp benefits in the United States. JP Morgan has contracted to provide food stamp debit cards in 26 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. JP Morgan is paid for each case that it handles, so that means that the more Americans that go on food stamps, the more profits JP Morgan makes. Yes, you read that correctly. When the number of Americans on food stamps goes up, JP Morgan makes more money. In the video posted below, JP Morgan executive Christopher Paton admits that this is "a very important business to JP Morgan" and that it is doing very well. Considering the fact that the number of Americans on food stamps has exploded from 26 million in 2007 to 43 million today, one can only imagine how much JP Morgan's profits in this area have soared. But doesn't this give JP Morgan an incentive to keep the number of Americans enrolled in the food stamp program as high as possible?

There are just some things that are a little too "creepy" to be "outsourced" to private corporations. The JP Morgan executive in the interview below does his best to put a positive spin on all this, but it just seems really unsavory for a big Wall Street bank to be making so much money off of the suffering of tens of millions of Americans....VIDEO AT LINK, AND MORE SCANDALOUS DETAIL

[Demeter]

33. The Big Obscenity: A Trillion Dollars a Year to the Richest 1%

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27306.htm

(That's seven times more than the budget deficits of all 50 states combined)

By Paul Buchheit


...U.S. GDP has quintupled since 1980, and we all contributed to that success. It's not unreasonable to say that upper-middle class families should have maintained the same size of their slice of pie.

But if earnings since 1980 were based on this measure of productiveness, the richest 1% of Americans would be making $1 trillion less per year.

A trillion dollars a year. That's more than we spend on the entire military.

A trillion dollars a year. That's seven times more than the budget deficits of all 50 states combined. Many states have been forced to cut police forces and teachers to balance their budgets.

A trillion dollars a year. Yet Congress just voted to continue the Bush tax cuts.

The richest 1% ($400,000 or more) didn't work harder than the rest of us. They profited from stock market gains, shrewdly designed financial instruments, and tax cuts. (AND FRAUD--DEMETER)

The very wealthy insist that all their income will stimulate the economy. But low-income earners spend a greater percentage of their overall income on consumption, while high-income earners save more. Middle-class America has been led to believe that the growth at the top will eventually produce more jobs. But many of us have college-educated sons and daughters who can't find suitable employment. Fortune Magazine reported that the 500 largest U.S. companies cut a record 821,000 jobs in 2009 while their collective profits increased to a record $391 billion....

[Demeter]

35. Taleb: The Fed Will be Gone in 25 Years By Rocky Vega

In the video below SEE LINK, Nicholas Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, is interviewed about the economic crisis by the National Journal’s Matthew Cooper for the Washington Ideas Forum at the Newseum in Washington, DC. Taleb speaks openly about his disdain for Geithner, Krugman, and a raft of other “economists” that failed to see the crisis coming and don’t understand how to respond to it. Here are a few of his thoughts, paraphrased…

* If someone failed to predict the economic crisis before it happened then I don’t want to hear what that person has to say. If a person was able to see the crisis coming, then I want to hear what they have to say.

* Globalization has two negative side effects. First, it makes the whole system more reactive with more extreme effects. Second, specialization is also a problem. No one discusses the potato famine of 1850 in Ireland, but 2.5 million people had to leave the island, one million made it the US and 1.5 million died, and it was due to their specialization and monoculture.

* In the economy 25 years from now anything fragile will break, everything we’ve bailed out will break and it will cost us more. The Fed will be gone in 25 years because it “fragilizes” the country, and it will be gone and replaced by more organic things. The Fed is what got us in crisis, by trying to manage the economy and by pushing hidden risks that kept accumulating


Read more: Taleb: The Fed Will be Gone in 25 Years http://dailyreckoning.com/taleb-the-fed-will-be-gone-in-25-years/#ixzz1Bft14egU

[Fuddnik]

60. Someone who failed to see the crisis coming.......

I just started reading "Griftopia".

Chapter two is titled "The Biggest Asshole in the World". It's about Alan Greenspan (and the torch is being passed eventually to The Ben Bernank).

Apparently Greenspan was so wrong in his predictions, throughout his entire career,(they're listed) that he couldn't even predict events and crises after they already happened. Nostradamus he wasn't.

[Demeter]

84. "couldn't even predict events and crises after they already happened"

:rofl:

[Pale Blue Dot]

37. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance; GE, Schlumberger, Google Gain

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will pare its first weekly drop since November, as General Electric Co., Google Inc. and Schlumberger Ltd. reported earnings that beat estimates.

General Electric and Schlumberger climbed more than 1.5 percent in early New York trading. Google gained 1.4 percent after also naming Larry Page to replace Eric Schmidt as chief executive officer. Intuitive Surgical Inc. surged 12 percent. Bank of America Corp. fell 1.1 percent after reporting a loss.

March contracts on the S&P 500 advanced 0.3 percent to 1,280.5 at 7:33 a.m. in New York. The index has fallen 1 percent so far this week following seven straight weeks of gains as accelerating Chinese economic growth fueled speculation the government will lift interest rates. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 0.3 percent to 11,804 today and Nasdaq-100 Index futures rose 0.4 percent to 2,289.5.

“The reality of earnings is much better than expectations,” said Robert Halver, head of research at Baader Bank AG in Frankfurt. “Most companies’ outlooks are great. Industrial companies are getting strong support from emerging markets.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=au09Vdj.LIbE

[DemReadingDU]

38. ZeroHedge: Bank of America Major Miss

1/21/11 Bank Of America: Major Miss On Both Top And Bottom Line

Going through Bank of America's apples to monkeys numbers, and awaiting the Q4 presentation eagerly, but for now BAC missed both the top and the bottom line by a mile: the company reported sales of $22.67B, vs. consensus $24.87B with EPS of $0.04 on expectations of $0.21.

Some other highlights:

* Q4 total revenue net of interest expense USD 22.1bln
* Tier 1 capital ratio 11.24% at quarter end
* Q4 net charge-offs USD 6.78bln
* Q4 non-performing loans, leases and foreclosed properties USD 32.66bln
* For this year co. had goodwill impairment charges USD 12.4bln
* During this year, co. also recorded USD 2.6bln in litigation expenses
* Tier 1 common equity ratio 8.60%
* Q4 home loans, and insurance loss USD 5bln
* Q4 provision for credit losses USD 5.13bln

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-america-major-miss-both-top-and-bottom-line

[Demeter]

39. How to Get the US Back to Full Employment in 30 Days By Bill Bonner

...The US now has a higher unemployment rate than Russia…or Britain…or Germany…or Japan. When it comes to joblessness, the US is a world leader. But why? Economists can’t figure it out. Harvard economist Lawrence Katz says it’s “genuinely puzzling.”...After admitting that he has no idea why there are so many people without jobs, columnist David Leonhardt goes on to tell us that “fixing the job market will take years.” Hmmm… How does he know that? And how does he think he can fix something if he doesn’t know how it’s broken?
...........

First, why are so many people unemployed? The answer is very simple. Because there is no profitable work for them to do as present labor rates...

For which the adjustment is taking place, US authorities are trying to block it. How? By taking resources from the new, unborn industries and using it to prop up the old, dying ones. Like Wall Street, for example. The financial industry grew like Topsy in the bubble years. It began to shrink in the crisis of ’07-’09, but the feds came in and pumped more than a trillion dollars into the financial sector, producing record profits for the big banks, but depriving the rest of the economy of much needed capital.

Not only that, the feds also take the pressure off labor to make adjustments. Food stamps, minimum wages, unemployment compensation, make-work, shovel-ready boondoggles – all these things cause workers to think they can continue as before…that a “recovery” of the good ol’ days is just around the corner…and that they’ll soon be earning as much as they were in 2007. Maybe more!

Want to really fix the unemployment problem? Listen up. Eliminate all bailouts, subsidies, giveaways and support systems – both to business and to labor. Abolish all employment restrictions and employment paperwork. All free labor – undocumented non-citizens – to compete equally with native-born workers. Cut taxes to a flat 10% rate for everyone. Abolish every government agency that begins with a letter of the alphabet. Then abolish the rest of them.

We confidently guarantee that the nation would be back at full employment within 30 days.

Read more: How to Get the US Back to Full Employment in 30 Days http://dailyreckoning.com/how-to-get-the-us-back-to-full-employment-in-30-days/#ixzz1BfyypJW6

BILL, BILL, IT'S A NICE FANTASY--BUT YOU ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM...WITH YOUR SIMPLISTIC NOTIONS OF "FREE MARKETS", WHICH GOT US INTO THIS PICKLE IN THE FIRST PLACE...

[Tansy_Gold]

41. It's easy to fantasize about what is never going to happen.

He's living in the world of Atlas Shrugged -- and many categorize that novel as science fiction.


'Nuff said.



TG, TT

[Demeter]

44. I'm alarmed that a guy can have a good grasp of basic facts

and let his "religion" completely F=== up his analysis. I read him for the data, and ignore the looney-tunes musical score.

[Fuddnik]

61. More like "Atlas Drugged".

I wonder how much electric Kool-Aid Ayn Rand and Alan Greenspan shared.

Apparently Bonner is still chugging.

[Tansy_Gold]

66. that would, of course, be converted static electric Kool-Aid. n/t

[xchrom]

47. wow -- that was a really strange read. really strange. nt

[Demeter]

49. In a word, delusional

and exactly what we are up against when the Tea Party starts...in whatever incarnation fascism takes at any particular time in history...

[xchrom]

53. it was like reading some primer from a cult.

i don't understand how guys like that come away making such a good living.

is everyone's Creep-o-meter turned off?

[Demeter]

55. (It's called fraud)

Bonner sells intangibles: advice and support for prejudice. With a little actual data thrown in for plausible deniability. And as I've noted before, he made his money the old-fashioned way---he married it.

Offered in the spirit of "Know Thy Enemy"

[Fuddnik]

68. Bonner had an investment newsletter called Strategic Investing.

It was expensive, but it had a money back guarantee, and I subscribed to it for about 6 months back in the early '90s.

EVERY, I repeat, EVERY single prediction and piece of advice they gave out was dead-on-balls WRONG.

I never followed any of their advice, because I was not much above broke at the time. But I did get a refund on the sub. And got to keep the free book. It sucked to.

[Demeter]

54. A Word of Advice to Financial Authorities By Bill Bonner

YES, BUT--DO IT SMARTLY! DEFAULT ON THE PIRATES AND FRAUDS, NOT ON THE WORKERS.

BY THE WAY, BILL, DIDN'T THE BANKSTERS FORCE THROUGH LAWS PROHIBITING DEFAULT--THE BANKRUPTCY "REFORM" BILL? WANT TO RETHINK THAT ONE, GET A "DO-OVER"? NAH, I DIDN'T THINK SO...

...in the spirit of civic betterment... we offer a bit of advice to financial authorities all over the world. In a word:

Default!

When you have more debt than you can pay, it is always best to own up…default…hang your head…say you’re sorry…promise not to do it again…

…and go about your business. And do it as soon as possible.

Whence cometh this august advice? From the pages of history – recent…and not so recent...

.....................................

Lesson # 1 – don’t borrow from foreigners.

Lesson #2 – if you get into trouble, don’t borrow more from the foreigners. Default.

.......................
But let’s look at another, more recent example. Iceland.

You may remember, two years ago Iceland was a mess. Its banks had borrowed, lent, and speculated recklessly. Iceland’s feds squirmed and winced. At first, the government decided it would do what Ireland was doing. It would rescue the banks…that is, it would bail out the banks’ lenders with public funds.

But when the public caught on to what was going on, a referendum was held. Voters rejected the bailout as if they were voting against sin itself. More than 90% of voters cast ballots against a taxpayer bailout. We were impressed. We wrote about it. The “Patsy Revolt of 2009” we called it.

Unable to stick the voters with the losses, the government left the banks to default.

Was this the end of the world? Did Iceland slip below the North Atlantic waves…joining the Titanic on the chilly, dark bottom of the sea? Did commerce break down? Did the Icelandic money become worthless? Was this the “end of time”…the apocalypse forecast in the Bible?

Nope.

“Iceland is doing better than anyone could have hoped,” reports Bloomberg.

Inflation fell from 18% down to 5% last year. The cost of insuring Icelandic debt fell to less than a third of the price in early 2009. Unemployment is barely 6%.

“Thanks to its rescue plan,” says the IMF, “the recession in Iceland has been less deep than expected and not worse than in the other countries deeply affected.”



Read more: A Word of Advice to Financial Authorities http://dailyreckoning.com/a-word-of-advice-to-financial-authorities/#ixzz1BgAz0Lr6

[Roland99]

65. yeah...a flat tax of 10% wouldn't be regressive at all!

[Demeter]

42. Ferguson: The Nasty Fiscal Arithmetic of Imperial Decline

With over 143,000 views, Harvard historian Niall Ferguson’s recent video (SEE LINK BELOW), on empires on the edge of chaos, has at least a lot of social proof going for it that it’s worth a gander. He gave his lecture to the Centre for Independent Studies, a public policy think tank within Australasia, and addresses questions such as: What if history isn’t cyclical and slow moving? And, what if collapse doesn’t amicably settle in over centuries, but instead comes quickly, or overnight?

With these questions in mind, about the true nature of complex systems, he considers implications for the United States. He portrays the US as a complex system, which appears to be stable, or in equilibrium, but is constantly evolving and mutating. Just a small trigger can lurch its seemingly benign system into an abrupt collapse… at a scale that’s impossible to anticipate.

Here are a few of his thoughts, paraphrased:

* The US fiscal numbers are bad, but perception may be even more crucial… because imperial crises are about expectations of future power, for the empire itself and, more importantly, in the eyes of its enemies.

* Right now, the impression is that the Western world expects the US to muddle through, the normalcy bias we have discussed before, and that’s a pretty strong incentive for congressmen to do nothing and leave the problem for the next generation.

* Finally, Ferguson asks: Are we ready for a dramatic change in the global balance of power? Drama lies ahead, and soon… as the nasty fiscal arithmetic of imperial decline drives yet another great power over the edge of chaos.


Read more: Ferguson: The Nasty Fiscal Arithmetic of Imperial Decline http://dailyreckoning.com/ferguson-the-nasty-fiscal-arithmetic-of-imperial-decline/#ixzz1Bg1XPnID

[Demeter]

45. James K. Galbraith ACTUALLY, THE RETIREMENT AGE IS TOO HIGH

WHEN ONE CONSIDERS HOW MANY IN THE OVER-40 CATEGORY HAVE BEEN SHUT OUT OF THE LABOR MARKETS FOR ANYTHING BUT SCUT WORK, THIS IS ESPECIALLY IRONIC...

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/unconventional_wisdom?page=0,7

The most dangerous conventional wisdom in the world today is the idea that with an older population, people must work longer and retire with less.

This idea is being used to rationalize cuts in old-age benefits in numerous advanced countries -- most recently in France, and soon in the United States. The cuts are disguised as increases in the minimum retirement age or as increases in the age at which full pensions will be paid.

Such cuts have a perversely powerful logic: "We" are living longer. There are fewer workers to support each elderly person. Therefore "we" should work longer.

But in the first place, "we" are not living longer. Wealthier elderly are; the non-wealthy not so much. Raising the retirement age cuts benefits for those who can't wait to retire and who often won't live long. Meanwhile, richer people with soft jobs work on: For them, it's an easy call.

Second, many workers retire because they can't find jobs. They're unemployed -- or expect to become so. Extending the retirement age for them just means a longer job search, a futile waste of time and effort....

[Demeter]

51. On the Other Hand, throwing Out the Database With the Elderly Is Stupid, Too

We need to allow all people, of whatever age, health, education, who wish to participate in this economy, to do so with their best talents.

If that means just being a consumer, due to infirmity, so be it.

If that means unpaid or less-paid, subsidized labor for training purposes...it worked in the past, no reason it couldn't today.

If that means tariffs and regulations preventing capital flight, go with what works!

The problem with this country, the BIGGEST problem, is insufficient vision, willful blindness, really.

We thought Obama was a man of vision....he turns out to be focused only on his own advancement, not the nation's.

[xchrom]

57. ...

:applause:

[Demeter]

46. Obama Pulls a Clinton By Robert Scheer

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27298.htm

Here we go again. When Bill Clinton suffered an electoral reversal after his first two years in office, he abruptly embraced the corporate money guys who had financed his congressional opposition in an effort to purchase a second term. On Tuesday in his Wall Street Journal Op-Ed piece, Barack Obama veered sharply down that same course, trumpeting his executive order " ... to remove outdated regulations that stifle job creation and make our economy less competitive. ..."

He employed the same "creating a 21st-century regulatory system" rationalization used by Clinton when he signed off on the sweeping deregulation legislation that unleashed the Wall Street greed that ended up being the biggest job-killer since the Great Depression. "Over the (past) seven years, we have tried to modernize the economy," Clinton enthused as he signed the Financial Services Modernization Act that repealed key New Deal legislation, adding, "And today what we are doing is modernizing the financial services industry, tearing down those antiquated laws and granting banks significant new authority." Modernizing was the propaganda constant, as in the Commodity Futures Modernization Act that Clinton signed, thus shielding financial derivatives from any government regulation.

That deregulation, as Obama concedes in his WSJ column, led to "a lack of proper oversight and transparency (that) nearly led to the collapse of the financial markets and a full-scale depression." But Obama now promises that his deregulation efforts will be more sensibly targeted and will "bring order to regulations that have become a patchwork of overlapping rules, the result of tinkering by administrations and legislatures of both parties and influence of special interests in Washington over decades."

When he wrote that he intends to accomplish this revamp "with more input from experts, businesses and ordinary citizens," did he have in mind his two new key White House advisers who were the most effective advocates for those special interests? Tom Donilon, Obama's national security adviser, was the Washington lobbyist for the housing behemoth Fannie Mae, which will cost taxpayers $700 billion because of its marketing of toxic derivatives. Obama's new Chief of Staff William Daley was the lead Washington representative for a similarly afflicted JPMorgan Chase. These are the folks, along with many other Wall Street alums in this administration, who will oversee the latest update of already weakened regulations.

KEEP READING AT LINK...IT GETS WORSE

[Demeter]

48. Capitalism, Market Fundamentalism, and the Duplicitous Meanings of Democracy

THE PROBLEM IS, DEMOCRACY BY DEFINITION IS SOCIALISM---COLLECTIVE DECISION-MAKING FOR THE BETTERMENT OF ALL IN THE GROUP. IT'S NOT "EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF". YOU CAN HAVE A DEMOCRATIC/SOCIALISTIC MODEL OF CAPITALISM, OR YOU CAN HAVE THE "EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF" FORM OF CAPITALISM, BUT...

YOU CAN'T HAVE "EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF" CAPITALISM AND DEMOCRACY IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER....

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27293.htm

Democracy is a word that is used too recklessly in western culture. Despite the prevalent belief that the meaning of democracy is universally understood, it remains an elusive idea that is not easily implemented. As a political philosophy, democracy is more closely associated with the socialist governments of Latin America, with Venezuela and Bolivia, than with the United States.

Webster’s Online Dictionary provides seven short definitions for democracy. The fourth definition is the one that comes closest to my own understanding of the term: “Government by the people; a form of government in which supreme power is retained and directly exercised by the people.” If one accepts Webster’s definition as a starting point for dialog about democracy, there are two main points that must figure prominently in the discussion: democracy is a concept that relates strictly to human beings and that working people, who constitute upwards of 95% of the citizenry, are disempowered and unrepresented.

Judging from these criteria it is apparent that the U.S. is neither a representative democracy nor a democratic republic. For instance, the people have no say in whether or not the nation goes to war. Nor do they have a voice in deciding economic policy. If they did, we would not have troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. We would not be bankrupting the treasury to bail out a criminal banking industry, or to finance the privatization of the public domain. We would not bankroll a bloated military or the imperial wars it wages for the financial gain of defense contractors and corporate investors. Like other developed nations, we would have universal health care and publicly-subsidized higher education. Our tax dollars would provide social services rather than corporate welfare and tax cuts for the rich. There would be egalitarianism rather than neo-feudalism. People would matter more than profits.

Not only are our freedoms restricted; they are more illusory than real. We are permitted to choose between political candidates preselected for us by the elite. We have the freedom to choose where we will eat or shop or what kind of car we will drive. We have the freedom to migrate from one job to another, but we have no say in how the work is performed, how much it pays, or how the final product of our labor is marketed. We do not get to decide whether it will be bartered or sold. No matter where you go the workplace is a hierarchal dictatorship. The business owner does not care what you think. You are a replaceable cog in a heartless machine that is designed to profit the owner by exploiting the worker. This is the indisputable legacy of capitalism....MORE

[Demeter]

56. Well, Boys and Girls, Time to Go Out and Freeze Another Extremity

Can we have some kind of fantasy theme for this Weekend with warmth, light and peace and prosperity?

And I don't mean the Mouse--sorry, Roland. We did it to death, and Tansy won't stand for it anyway.

I'll probably be late starting--going back to the usual crazy schedule last seen in November. Gah!

And how the email has propagated! Still at 165, after all this posting!

[xchrom]

58. thank you demeter! -- stay as warm as you can. nt

[Roland99]

62. GE leads markets to a positive open....

Dow 11,877 +54 +0.46%
Nasdaq 2,716 +12 +0.45%
S&P 500 1,288 +8 +0.59%
GlobalDow 2,152 +18 +0.85%
Gold 1,337 -9 -0.68%
Oil 89.45 -0.14 -0.16%

[Po_d Mainiac]

71. This is why DTD expenses are jumping...Chart porn below.

[Roland99]

78. "Chopper" Ben has that chart plastered on the ceiling over his bed.

[DemReadingDU]

72. Bangladesh stock market crashes 9% in 5 minutes

1/21/11 via John Xenakis at Generational Dynamics website

Thousands of investors riot in Dhaka as trading is halted.

Police used batons and tear gas to break up violent protests by hundreds of Bangladesh stock investors, when prices collapsed, halting trading for a fourth day this month, according to Reuters.

This followed a "stupendous fall in share prices" -- 600 points or 9% in just five minutes, according to Financial Express (Dhaka).

There are 3.5 million investors in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), many of whom have sold their possessions and borrowed as much money as they could to invest in stocks during last year's bubble growth. The stock index took a dip in December, but recovered, and people started pouring money in again. The DSE index fell about 15% in two days, early last week, causing riots and violence among investors.

As we reported last week, the government had attempted to stop the crash by removing all limits on borrowing money to put into the stock market. Stock prices steadied for a few days.

Government officials tried other things as well.

They shortened the trading day, opening at 1:00 pm instead of in the morning, so there's less chance of a crash. I really have to laugh as I type this paragraph, at the thought that shortening the trading day could prevent a crash. In this case, it took only 5 minutes for the index to fall 9%.

Another attempt by the Bangladesh government officials was to institute "circuit breakers." Trading was to be halted automatically if the DSE index fell 225 points, according to the Daily Star (Dhaka).

That didn't work, of course. A full-scale panic occurred, and the index blew past the 225 point circuit breaker much faster than anyone could react.

What's happening in Dhaka these days is very similar to what happened on Wall Street in 1929.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e110121#e110121

[DemReadingDU]

73. Wall Street investors today are in dreamland, thinking that they're protected from a similar crash.

more from John Xenakis


Wall Street investors today are in dreamland, thinking that they're protected from a similar crash.

* Some people think that NY Stock Exchange circuit breakers will protect them. But those circuit breakers will be no more effective in a panic than the Dhaka circuit breakers were.

In fact, it's much worse in NY than in Dhaka because of of the heavy use of computerized trading. When computers sense a panic, they're self-protection algorithms will kick into gear in nanoseconds, and they'll sell off, causing a panic much more rapid than if humans were doing everything. I'm always mindful of the old saying, "To err is human, but to really f--k things up takes a computer.

* A lot of people have stop orders on their portfolios, something like, "If the stock price falls 10%, then automatically sell immediately." But these stock orders have no more chance of surviving a panic than circuit breakers do.

There's an additional wrinkle about computerized trading that makes this situation even worse for the small investor. You know that when you visit a web site, it can take a few seconds to get a response to a click. Well, that's true of programs, sitting in some stock broker's office, that are supposed to execute your stop order. But those computers will have to wait several seconds to get a response. Meanwhile, the big Wall Street banks have direct network connections into the NY Stock Exchange, and their sell orders will be executed more quickly, by nanoseconds or even seconds. That means that your sell order won't even be processed until the panic has been going on for a while.

* A lot of people believe they're protected from big losses because they've hedged their investments by offsetting their stock investments with short sales. The problem is that in a full-scale panic, a lot of people will go bankrupt, and those shorts will not be paid.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the global financial crisis has only begun. Wall Street stocks are overpriced by a factor of almost 200%, as described in "Updating the 'real value' of the stock market." Price/earnings ratios have been well above historic norms continuously for 15 years, since 1995, and by the Law of Mean Reversion, they'll have to be equally below average for roughly 15 years. This means that the stock market will crash to below Dow 3000, and stay there for a long time. The people of Dhaka are learning their lesson now, and it will be the turn of Wall Street investors before long.

It's impossible to predict what will trigger this crash, because there are a number of possibilities. For example, there might be a panic by banks to sell off their shadow inventory of some 8 million foreclosed or troubled homes. Or there might be a collapse of the euro currency, which some mainstream analysts are predicting.

Or, another possibility is that the crash of the Dhaka Stock Exchange will spread to other Asian countries, where there are also huge bubbles, and that could cause a chain reaction that reaches Wall Street within a few months.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e110121#e110121

[xchrom]

81. this is what caught my eye and worries me

'Or, another possibility is that the crash of the Dhaka Stock Exchange will spread to other Asian countries, '

that seems a like a too close for comfort scenario to me.

[Demeter]

87. Most likely, all at the same time

[AnneD]

96. Normalacy Bias.....

Know it, Accept it, Guard against it.

"The normalcy bias refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of the government to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred that it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.<1>

Possible causes
The normalcy bias may be caused in part by the way the brain processes new data. Research suggests that even when the brain is calm, it takes 8–10 seconds to process new information. Stress slows the process, and when the brain cannot find an acceptable response to a situation, it fixates on a single solution that may or may not be correct. An evolutionary reason for this response could be that paralysis gives an animal a better chance of surviving an attack; predators are less likely to eat prey that isn't struggling.<2>

Effects
The normalcy bias often results in unnecessary deaths in disaster situations. The lack of preparation for disasters often leads to inadequate shelter, supplies, and evacuation plans. Even when all these things are in place, individuals with a normalcy bias often refuse to leave their homes. Studies have shown that more than 70% of people check with others before deciding to evacuate.<2>

The normalcy bias also causes people to drastically underestimate the effects of the disaster. Therefore, they think that everything will be all right, while information from the radio, television, or neighbors gives them reason to believe there is a risk. This creates a cognitive dissonance that they then must work to eliminate. Some manage to eliminate it by refusing to believe new warnings coming in and refusing to evacuate (maintaining the normalcy bias), while others eliminate the dissonance by escaping the danger. The possibility that some may refuse to evacuate causes significant problems in disaster planning.<3>"

more......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

[DemReadingDU]

98. ah ha! There actually is a definition for this

Thanks AnneD!

And for the majority of people, this is what is occurring. They just do not believe that our way of life is going to drastically change, until we're forced to. Spouse compares it to Armageddon, and to him that is not going to happen. He just cannot bring himself to alter anything in his life because he doesn't want to believe that he will ever have to. To him, he sees no reason to help me in the garden, because he prefers to eat at McDonalds. Everything continues as normal, until it's not.

[Demeter]

86. It's getting to be a habit in Bangladesh

the question is, is it going up and down, or just down in chunks?

[Hotler]

75. k&r n/t

[Demeter]

88. It's UNBELIEVABLE out there!

14F, wind chill 2F, although I've got to think it's worse than that.

The grandpuppy is not going to the doggy park today--I don't have enough clothes for the wind....

[Demeter]

89. Still Banking on Fraud by William K. Black

http://dollarsandsense.org/archives/2011/0111black.html

A truly amazing thing has happened in banking. After the worst financial crisis in 75 years sparked the “Great Recession,” we have

* Failed to identify the real causes of the crisis
* Failed to fix the defects that caused the crisis
* Failed to hold the CEOs, professionals, and anti-regulators who caused the crisis accountable—even when they committed fraud
* Bailed out the largest and worst financial firms with massive public funds
* Covered up banking losses and failures—impairing any economic recovery
* Degraded our integrity and made the banking system even more encouraging of fraud
* Refused to follow policies that have proved extremely successful in past crises
* Made the systemically dangerous megabanks even more dangerous
* Made our financial system even more parasitic, harming the real economy


And pronounced this travesty a brilliant success

The Bush and Obama administrations have made an already critically flawed financial system even worse. The result is that the banking industry’s future is bad for banking, terrible for the real economy, horrific for the public—and wonderful for the top executives at the largest banks. This is significantly insane, especially given that over the past 30 years, the savings-and-loan fiasco and other crises provided ample opportunity to learn about those flaws. It appears that we will need to suffer another depression before we are willing to put aside the crippling dogmas that have so degraded the financial system, the real economy, democracy, and the ethical standards of private and public elites.

LENGTHY AND VIGOROUS MORE AT LINK