STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 8 April

[ozymandius]

Thursday April 8, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 290
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 118 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 171 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 385
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 867
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 7, 2004

Dow... 10,480.15 -90.66 (-0.86%)
Nasdaq... 2,050.24 -9.66 (-0.47%)
S&P 500... 1,140.53 -7.63 (-0.66%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.17% -0.00 (-0.10%)
Gold future... 423.70 +3.90 (+0.93%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Imperialism Inc.]

1. Like the toon. Here's another.

[Maeve]

2. Initial Claims Day

Last week's number was 342K--expected to drop to somewhere between 335K and 340K. (However, a totally unexpected major drop should not come as a surprise--goodness, but I'm cynical here!)

Okay, I no longer have any faith in the reliability of the numbers we are given. The economy does seem to be picking up a bit, but the timing of "great news" is just too conveeenient by half. :hangover:

Okay, while I was writing that the numbers came out---328K. Let the party begin.

[54anickel]

7. Morning Maeve and all. I hear ya on the reports lately. I just started

reading Krugman's book. His thoughts on the idea of a revolution through a young Kissenger's eyes really sent chills down my spine. I believe the maladmin is truly corrupt and their reports have no credibility any longer with me. It all makes more sense now. I was always too willing to give the benefit of the doubt - denial on my part - that they couldn't be THAT bad.
Great book so far, but I've barely started.

[Frodo]

10. They don't have to be making the number up.

It's expected (and I believe I predicted it).

People think presidents have SOOO much ability to help/hurt these numbers. When it's really the standard business cycle. This time might be a little better/worse, but they KNOW some things will happen because it's happened over and over. Take a look at the graph (may not include today's numbers for a bit):



Compare the Jan 02-present period with the late '91-'93 period. Tell me where the number goes next (without even caring about tax policy etc..)

It's going to drop a bit more to a rolling 4wk average around 325k (with some weeks under 300k and some as high as 350k). And it's going to stay there (absent a terrorist attack of major proportion) for at least the rest of the year. I said this six months ago and everyone called me a rove shill. I said we have to be VERY careful about how we use this issue because it's going to break against us .

The "political" point to make is the unnatural elevation of that red line. I've never seen anything like it.

[54anickel]

11. You are such a "rove shill"! HA!

:evilgrin:

I'd have to dig to see what you said as far as the reason, but yes you said they would trend downward.
You are a "see-er" Frodo.

[54anickel]

3. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 88.81 Change +0.54 (+0.61%)

Settle 88.27 Settle Time 23:35
Open 88.24 Previous Close 88.27
High 88.84 Low 88.08

Currencies: Daytraders' new thing? :eyes:
http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/financialpost/investing/story.html?id=0f8ae07c-772e-4bba-b67a-a1c5f5dc88e1

S everal days each week, Paul Lynch spends a few hours in front of his home computer, daytrading over the Internet. No, the 22-year old doesn't move in and out of volatile technology stocks like the notorious daytraders of the late 1990s did. Mr. Lynch, who lives in Guelph, Ont., and runs his own advertising firm, trades currencies.

"You're switching, say, U.S. dollars to euros for a number of hours. And then you're buying the U.S. dollars back again," he said. Since December, he has made a 50% gain on his original investment. Not bad, considering the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index is up just 8% this year.

Many other small investors are getting the same idea. Once the sole domain of institutional players and ultra-sophisticated investors, currency spot trading has become accessible to just about anyone with a computer and an Internet connection.

Businesses have begun offering courses and hand-holding services to retail investors who are not familiar with currency spot trading. For example, New Jersey-based GAIN Capital Group launched Forex.com in January. Through the Web site, investors can open a "mini-account" for as little as US$250.

"We give away free demos to potential clients so that they can try out trading and see how it works," said Mark Galant, chief executive of GAIN Capital. "We're up to 1,000 demos a week now."

more...


Asian reserves top $2.1 trillion, wait for China update
http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp;:4074eacd:3d6f773e08b7240?type=businessNews&locale=en_IN&storyID=4782066

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian foreign exchange reserves rose more than $220 billion in the first quarter of 2004, according to central bank figures, and the rise could have been larger since China has not updated its figures.

Asian central banks held $2.13 trillion of foreign exchange reserves at the end of March, up from $1.91 trillion at the end of 2003 and $1.44 trillion at the end of 2002.

The reserve accumulation largely reflects the region's determination to stem gains in currencies against the U.S. dollar and protect export competitiveness.

JP Morgan estimates that Asia now holds almost 70 percent of the world's foreign exchange reserves.

But signs of domestic economic strength, emerging inflationary pressures and the rising costs of intervention all point to a slower pace of growth in reserves.

more...


Forex - US dollar steady vs yen in Tokyo in thin pre-Easter trade

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1081398592-9e32d306-05106

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The US dollar was steady against the yen in early afternoon trade in Tokyo, shrugging off growing concerns over the fighting in Iraq, dealers said

They added that position adjustments ahead of the Easter holiday were likely to be a factor today in generally thin trading. At 12.25 pm (0325 GMT), the dollar was quoted at 105.65 yen, moving in a range of 105.24-105.74. That compared with 105.59 in Sydney earlier and 105.45 in late New York trade

snip>

Dealers said that heightened concerns over global terrorist attacks could push the dollar lower with long-yen speculators expected to target dollar sell-stops below 104.90 to 104.50 yen

However, market analysts said worries over geopolitical risks would not always work in favor of the yen. Japanese troops stationed in Iraq for humanitarian operations have temporarily halted their work in view of the worsening security situation, according to the Defense Agency's spokesman. Japan, a close ally of the US, has deployed some 550 ground troops to predominantly Shiite southern Iraq to provide clean water, medical assistance and repair schools

"If something happens to Japan's troops in Iraq, that would hurt the credibility of Prime Minister (Junichiro) Koizumi. It's yen-selling," said Ida of Thomson Financial

Many analysts agreed that the yen could gain ground against the dollar in the medium term on the back of steady investment inflows into Japanese stocks by foreign investors

Some dealers noted that a report on currency manipulation, which will be released by the US Treasury possibly next week, could be another bullish factor for the yen. Speculators are poised to test the yen's upside if the report makes fresh allegations over Japan's currency intervention.

more...


Tokyo Stocks Hit New 32-Month High
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2004/04/07/ap/Headlines/d81qg69o0.txt

TOKYO - Tokyo's benchmark stock index hit a new 32-month high Thursday on gains by shares sensitive to the domestic economy. The U.S. dollar rose against the yen.

The Nikkei Stock Average of 225 issues gained 72.97 points, or 0.61 percent, to end at 12,092.59 _ its best close since finishing at 12,163.67 on Aug. 8, 2001. On Wednesday, it lost 60.08 points, or 0.5 percent.

The dollar was trading at 105.61 yen at 3 p.m. (0600 GMT) Thursday, up 0.03 yen and above the 105.31 yen it bought in New York the previous day.

On the stock market, gains by retailers and steelmakers helped to turn the market around from early losses prompted by a decline in U.S. stocks overnight.

snip>

Investors have been upbeat about shares sensitive to the domestic economy amid recent indications that Japan's economy may be on the path to recovery from a more than decade-long slowdown.

snip>

The yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond was unchanged from Wednesday at 1.4900 percent and priced at 100.08 points.

[54anickel]

4. U.S. retailers' March sales up on clothing demand

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=marketsNews&story...

NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and other U.S. retailers reported mostly higher same-store sales for March on Thursday, led by strong demand for clothing.
Wal-Mart said U.S. same-store sales, a key retail gauge measuring sales at stores open at least a year, rose 6 percent. The world's biggest retailer had forecast a 4 percent to 6 percent increase.

March was a five-week period in the retail calendar, and typically accounts for the biggest portion of first-quarter sales.

"March should be about as good as it gets," said Martin Bukoll, retail analyst with Northern Trust.

However, he said it was not clear whether recent strength in the U.S. job market was sustainable, and pointed to record high gasoline prices as a major obstacle to sales growth.

more...

[54anickel]

5. Dow, Nasdaq Set to Open Higher

:eyes:

http://www.fredericksburg.com/News/apmethods/apstory?urlfeed=D81QK80O3.xml

Stocks are set to open higher Thursday, rallying on the positive news out of Yahoo! Inc. after the bell the day before.

Dow Jones futures jumped 52 points recently, to 10,520. Nasdaq futures gained 10.5 points, and S&P futures were 4.7 points higher.

Late Wednesday, Yahoo! Inc. reported first-quarter net income that more than doubled from a year ago, raised its revenue outlook for the full year and announced a 2-for-1 stock split. Yahoo was supposed to earn 10 cents a share, but its results came in 4 cents higher. Also, Dell Inc. raised its first-quarter revenue outlook and boosted its stock repurchase plan.

In London, the FTSE 100 Index were up 23.5 points recently, to 4,492.5, although the focus is on the Bank of England rate decision due later in the day. Markets in France and Germany also were trading higher.

In European corporate news, luxury-goods retailer LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton reported a 2 percent rise in first-quarter revenue and said it expects a significant increase in operating profit this year.

more...

[54anickel]

8. A splash of blather to go with that

Oh yeah, I'm all over that YaHoo stuff! So how's mama.com doing these days anyway? :eyes:

8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +10.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.5. Near its best levels of the morning, the futures market continues to tear higher, pointing to a rally in the cash market at the open. Contributing to the favorable tone of trade is a flood of upbeat developments including a lower than anticipated Initial Claims report, higher than expected earnings announcements from the likes of GE, YHOO, DNA, and RIMM, upward guidance from DELL, and generally strong same store sales results.

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +10.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.0. Futures indications get a lift on the heels of the better than expected Initial Claims report. Nasdaq futures lift 1 point to 19 above fair value; S&P futures lift 0.6 points at 10.5 points above fair value. Accordingly, the cash market looks set for a significantly higher open, as the favorable economic and corporate developments, including better than expected earnings from YHOO, DNA, RIMM, and GE, have put a bid in the market.

8:25AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +8.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.5. The Initial Claims report for the week of 4/3 will be released at 8:30ET, shedding more light on the progress in the employment market and, specifically, the pace of lay-offs. The consensus estimate is for a reading of 340K on the heels of last week's figure of 342K.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +9.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.0. The futures market is sharply higher as the market is greeted by a batch of upbeat developments, including better than expected earnings reports from the likes of YHOO, RIMM, and DNA, upward estimates revisions from DELL, and generally better than expected same store sales reports, with...

[ozymandius]

6. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Friday Job Number Made Bonds “Affordable”

As I searched through the headlines this morning, I made an extra effort to find good news to provide you with an upbeat, optimistic Wrapup today. The more I continued to dig for information, the more depressing it became. I guess the most positive development I see is that the Bank of Japan has evidently not given up on their support of the U.S. dollar. We need all the help we can get. According to Masajuro Shiokawa, a former Japanese finance minister, Japan has not abandoned its efforts to weaken the yen to protect the economic recovery and he suggested they should sell yen “aggressively” whenever trading becomes “volatile.” I suppose they were just kidding when they said they were planning to discontinue the interventions at the close of their fiscal year ended March 31st. The good we can take from Mr. Shiokawa is simply the fact that Japan will work to slow the dollar’s decline.

The Problem to Defend

The big problem with a growing economy and people going back to work is that normal market response should be higher interest rates. Last week I suggested we should get a soft number because the economy is so fragile, we can’t afford to have higher interest rates. Now all the spin-masters have to do is prove there is no inflation to justify artificially low interest rates. They must be on damage control in the bond market because this week the Mortgage Bankers Association reports 30-year fixed rates have jumped a quarter-point from 5.5% last week to 5.75% today. Additionally, the re-financing index fell 15% from last week and the application index fell 7.2%, the third consecutive weekly decline. The Fed is walking on pins and needles and they better hope one of those needles doesn’t find the housing bubble anytime soon!

Most Americans are already finding it difficult to make ends meet. How much tougher will things get if mortgage rates continue to move higher? A Reuter’s headline today reads, “Americans to Spend Tax Refunds on the Basics.” The article goes on to say, “Americans plan to spend more of their tax refund money this year than last year on basic necessities like groceries and gasoline. The upcoming tax refunds are going to be welcome in some households more than others because, for many consumers, the refund money is needed to pay for basic expenses.” The same article said a new study by Cambridge Credit Counseling reported nearly seven out of ten Americans will spend their refund checks versus 59% a year ago.

The trend is clearly going in the wrong direction. Remember also that last year we had increased stimulus from cash-out refinancing, but based on the statistics it appears to have run its course. To top it off, the Investors Business Daily consumer confidence index fell to 52.8 in April for a third consecutive monthly decline. Consumer’s expectations declined for the overall economic outlook and in the personal financial outlook. Not a good development.

<cut>
My last good news for the day: I got tickets for second row seats to see Mr. Tracy Byrd in concert! It’s good to have a healthy diversion from all this money stuff!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

9. Everyone needs a healthy diversion now and then, Ozy! Here's

a link, just for you. You may want to be able to sing along.
http://www.geocities.com/islandlyrics/lyrics/tracyb.htm

I have to be honest, I never heard of Tracy Byrd so I had to google, that's when I came across this site. I'm a jazz freak when I'm not listening to NPR. Hey, it's a geek thing. B-) I used to listen to CM back in the old disco days - I REALLY hated that disco stuff.

[54anickel]

12. DOH!!! Ozy, here I thought it was YOU that was getting the healthy

diversions. Silly me! :silly:

I must need more coffee. :hangover:

[54anickel]

13. 10:09 - I guess I'll start us off

Dow 10,504.34 +24.19 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,062.73 +12.49 (+0.61%)
S&P 500 1,144.20 +3.67 (+0.32%)
30-yr Bond 5.032% +0.021

NYSE Volume 221,302,000
Nasdaq Volume 373,807,000

10:00AM: The major averages maintain their standing in positive territory, with the Nasdaq maintaining its positive of outperformane relative to its blue-chip counterparts... While the bulk of the sectors are in the green, the market's gains are not as sizeable as they could have been expected to be given the sheer amount of favorable developments from this morning... Nevertheless, leaders to the upside include the hardware, internet, networking, semiconductor, computer services, computer storage, and coal groups...
Among the laggards of note are the gold, non-metal mining, and real estate operations sectors... Note that the retail sector was off to a higher start, but has since backed off into the red... Separately, the Wholesale Inventories report checked in at 1.2% versus the consensus of 0.3% and the prior reading of 0.1%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1811/815, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1835/690

9:45AM: In-line with futures indications, the cash market is off to a strong start... A flood of upbeat developments has placed a bid in the market... The latter included better than expected earnings reports from the likes of General Electric (GE 31.76 +0.36), Yahoo (YHOO 54.70 +6.35), and Genentech (DNA 111.90 +3.45), upward guidance from Dell (DELL 35.48 +0.66), and strong same store sales reports for March, as well as upward estimate revisions by numerous retailers...

The world's largest retailer Wal-Mart (WMT 57.68 -0.30), for one, reported March comps of 6%, at the upper end of the 4-6% guidance range... For the full list of same store sales results and expectations, please see the Same Store Sales calendar, which is available to Briefing.com's Platinum subscribers...

[54anickel]

14. Silver a Sell, Unless The Jig is Up

http://www.fallstreet.com/apr704.php

snip>

The Plot Thickens

While it is prudent to own gold/silver to hedge against the US dollar’s decline, inflation, terrorism, etc. (even the shorts have been unable to hold prices down since 2001), it is dangerous to make any investment on the assumption that you will profit when the market stops being rigged. In Japan falling stock prices meant direct government purchases of stocks, in the US a secretive group of plunge protectors buy baskets of stocks during heavy sell offs, and globally central banks aim to suppress the price of gold. This just in: most markets are ‘rigged’, and through out history not many have succeeded when challenging the manipulators. The Hunt brothers, which could be argued as being ‘manipulators’ themselves, failed miserably when they tried to corner silver back in late 1970s.

However, before dismissing the possibility of a massive squeeze as the silver shorts scramble to buy an amount of metal that doesn’t exist, it is nonetheless interesting to speculate. To be sure, the commercial short position on silver is larger than the readily available supply of silver, COMEX couldn’t slam prices lower with a margin hike earlier in 2004, and the price of silver held up well following its sell off after last weeks stronger than expected jobs report (which helped support the US dollar). Quite frankly, while the regular assumption is that the price of silver follows the price of gold, the opposite seems true today. Could this be because speculators have united to form a Hunt like attack against the evil silver shorts?

Conclusion

Keep in mind that the regulators – if indeed they are acting in tandem with the manipulators – are ruthless. Yesterday COMEX raised (again) the margin requirements on silver, and a spike in silver lease rates to begin this week has suddenly vanished. It would appear that certain parties were ready to lease silver in increasing quantities even though the price of silver has risen dramatically.

In short, although the payoff is potentially huge, it is not prudent to bet against the commercials. Quite frankly, the commercials – which are currently adding to a short position that is 55.3% higher than their average short position since 1986 (nearly a record) – are capable of crushing silver prices lower the second speculators flinch. Granted, no one knows exactly when this will take place, and silver could go considerably higher before it does (speculative long interest is only at 23% of the average speculative long interest position since 1986). Nevertheless, with wild, unpredictable swings in the price of silver likely going forward, selling some of your silver holdings now seems prudent. After all, investing in unpredictability is not wise.

What if the proverbial ‘jig is up’? Although I have my doubts that the jig will ever really be up, if the manipulation is exposed look for panicked buying in silver and plenty of defaults.

[ozymandius]

15. Hi folks. 11:00 update

Dow 10,498.95 +18.80 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,065.50 +15.26 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,144.67 +4.14 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.179% +0.012

I have been listening to the testimony of Condoleezza Rice. I am sorry to have neglected this thread. The testimony has kept me rapt.

Right now, Bob Kerrey is tearing through Rice.

[54anickel]

16. You'll know when you get enough

This is a loooong ranting article from The Mogambo Guru. I usually find his "lunatic" rantings both entertaining and educational. But remember, I'm the one who is easily entertained. :evilgrin:

http://205.232.90.194/editorials/daughty/daughty040704.html

[54anickel]

17. 12:09 lunchtime check - disappointment abounds & Condi

Dow 10,495.19 +15.04 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,062.26 +12.02 (+0.59%)
S&P 500 1,143.82 +3.29 (+0.29%)
30-yr Bond 5.014% +0.003

12:00PM: Today's session is turning out to be a disappointment for the bulls... After all, despite a flood of upbeat corporate developments, economic news, and a higher open, the market has drifted lower through the entirety of the session, with the Dow having breached negative territory within the last hour of trading...
The mentioned upbeat corporate developments included better than expected earnings reports from the likes of General Electric (GE 31.39 -0.01), Yahoo (YHOO 55.09 +6.74), and Genentech (DNA 111.86 +3.41), upward estimate revision by Dell (DELL 35.55 +0.73), and generally strong same store sales reports, including upward guidance by numerous retailers... With regard to economic news, the Initial Claims report checked in better than expected at 328K (consensus 340K), demonstrating continued stabilization in the lay-offs picture, while the Wholesale Inventories report came in at 1.2% (consensus 0.3%)... The latter was the strongest in 4 years, with a new record low inventory to sales ratio of 1.17, which argues for stronger inventory rebuilding and an added boost to 2004 production and economic growth...

Nevertheless, the grilling of national security adviser Condoleezza Rice by the independent commission investigating the September 11 attacks has brought additional attention to geopolitical concerns and threats, stealing some of the market's thunder... The bulk of the sectors continue trading in the green, but the strong leadership to the upside seen earlier in the session has dissipated... Currently, leaders to the upside include the internet, semiconductor, computer services, insurance, advertising, and oil services groups... Among the laggards of note are the gold, retail, aluminum, non-metal mining, and homebuilding sectors...

[Frodo]

18. Whoa.That Wholesale Inventory number is impressive.

1.2% - up from .2% (expected .3%).

I usually completely ignore this report, but that's a high enough number to revise GDP expectations upward a fair amount.

[54anickel]

21. February Wholesale Inventories Rise Most in 4 Years

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=102&topic_id=472636&mesg_id=473333

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers jumped 1.2 percent in February, the most in four years, signaling that companies may have stepped up production enough to rebuild stockpiles as demand rises, a government report showed.

The gain brought the value of inventories to $299.7 billion, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Supplies had climbed a revised 0.2 percent in January. Sales increased 1.3 percent, keeping the amount of time goods spend on wholesalers' shelves at a record-low 1.17 months.

Greater demand has led companies including aluminum maker Alcoa Inc. to increase production, which economists say will help underpin economic growth this year. The jump in stockpiles may add to first-quarter gross domestic product, which may have grown at a 4.4 percent annual rate, based on the median of 68 estimates in a Bloomberg survey last week. The economy expanded at a 4.1 percent rate in the final three months last year.

``Inventory rebuilding is now accelerating quite sharply, and this is a positive for first quarter GDP figures,'' said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Ltd., a New York-based consulting firm. Sloan said he will probably add ``a few points'' to his first quarter forecast, which is currently 3.6 percent.

Economists had projected a 0.3 percent increase in wholesale inventories, based on the median projection of 35 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, compared with the 0.1 percent gain originally reported for January. Estimates ranged from no change to an increase of 0.7 percent.

more...

It's amazing how far off the economists have been on their predictions for the plethora of monthly reports.

[54anickel]

22. WRAPUP 2-US jobless claims lowest in more than three years

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4788130

WASHINGTON, April 8 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing initial claims for jobless aid plunged last week to the lowest in more than three years, the government said on Thursday in one of several reports underlining a quickening economic pace.

First-time claims for state unemployment insurance fell an unexpectedly steep 14,000 in the week ended April 3 to 328,000 -- their lowest level since just before President George W. Bush took office -- from 342,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.

The size of the fall surprised analysts and led many to predict that a trend toward more hiring was in place, especially after last month's pickup in job creation.

"Clearly good news," said economist Pierre Ellis of Decision Economics Inc. in New York. "What appears to be the resumption of new hiring should combine with this reduction in layoffs to promote strong employment growth."

Financial markets were buoyed by the report, with the dollar rallying against other currencies while stocks rose.

U.S. bond prices fell as investors bet interest rates may face upward pressure should the labor market improvement persist and shifted money into stocks.

snip>

UPBEAT SURPRISE

The jobless claims drop far exceeded forecasts by Wall Street economists who had predicted a dip of just 2,000. The Labor Department said last week's level was the smallest since 320,000 in the week of Jan. 13, 2001.

Last week, the government reported a surge in new jobs during March with 308,000 positions added to payrolls outside the farm sector, and the jobless claims fall adds to evidence that hiring conditions may be improving after a long drought.

The jobs market has been a hot issue in the campaign for November's U.S. presidential elections, with Democrats highlighting the net loss of jobs since Bush took office while administration officials maintain an economic upswing will soon give rise to job growth.

more...

[Frodo]

24. The amazing thing to me was that 1.17 month figure.

That was just unheard-of when I took econ classes. They have really got the supply-chain down to a science these days.

Were you the one that posted the statistic that said something like "65% of WALMART products are rung up at the register BEFORE they have to pay the supplier for them"?

[54anickel]

25. All that great technology at work. JIT was replaced by ERP. I

remember reading something like what you stated about WalMart inventories, but I don't know if I posted it. Wallyworld has a huge, fast turn over in their cheap plastic stuff and clothing. The way they strong-arm their suppliers, I wouldn't doubt the have longer terms than the customary 10 -30 days as well. Still, impressive turnover none the less.

[Maeve]

19. 1:54 sideways-date

Dow 10,476.75 -3.40 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,061.52 +11.28 (+0.55%)
S&P 500 1,142.38 +1.85 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.197% +0.030

And the word of the day is "Uninspired"

[54anickel]

20. closing numbers, waiting on the final blather

Dow 10,442.03 -38.12 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,052.86 +2.62 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,139.33 -1.20 (-0.11%)
30-yr Bond 5.035% +0.024
NYSE Volume 1,190,810,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,660,683,000

3:30PM: With half an hour of trade remaining, participants are booking profits ahead of the long weekend... Today's session has been little more than selling on the news... Accordingly, the retailing sector is among the notable laggards despite this morning's strong same store sales results and upward guidance by numerous retailers... Additionally, the market has been slipping over the last half an hour on news of a CIA warning of possible attacks in Paris tonight, as well as an AP report of evacuations of Paris's several train stations because of a bomb alert...
At their current levels, the major averages are looking at a lower close versus last Friday's closing levels...NYSE Adv/Dec 1217/2004, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1427/1714

3:00PM: With the Dow and S&P 500 in negative territory and the Nasdaq sporting only mild gains, the major averages are moving sideways along their respective session lows... Despite the pullback, the oil services sector maintains its positioning among the leaders to the upside with gains of 1.1% for the OSX index... Its gains coincide with a $1.05 gain in the price of crude oil to $37.20/bbl - the third consecutive gain this week, heading for the biggest weekly gain in six months... The gold sector, on the other hand, has spent the session among the notable laggards...

Its move lower coincided with a $3.00 decrease in the price of gold to $420.70/oz, associated with the dollar's gains against the euro and the yen, which made the precious metal more expensive for overseas investors... News of a CIA warning of possible attack in Paris tonight sent the major averages to fresh session lows...

[54anickel]

23. Final Blather

Close Dow -38.12 at 10,442.03, S&P -1.20 at 1,139.33, Nasdaq +2.62 at 2,052.86:
While today's session started out as the next chapter in "The Great Expectations", the early enthusiasm soon turned to bitter disappointment as the major averages spent the entirety of the session drifting lower despite a flood of upbeat corporate and economic developments...
Specifically, the market was served up better than expected earnings reports from the likes of General Electric (GE 31.35 -0.05), Yahoo (YHOO 56.05 +7.70), and Genentech (DNA 112.38 +3.93), upward estimate revisions from the likes of Dell (DELL 35.57 +0.75) and Federal Express (FDX 73.97 -1.09), and generally strong same store sales reports, including upward guidance by numerous retailers... Additionally, the Initial Claims report at 328K (consensus 340K) demonstrated continued stabilization in the lay-offs picture, while the Wholesale Inventories report at 1.2% (consensus 0.3%) was the strongest in 4 years... The inventory to sales ratio dipped to a record low of 1.17, arguing for stronger inventory rebuilding and an added boost to 2004 production and economic growth...

Nevertheless, the grilling of national security adviser Condoleezza Rice by the independent commission investigating the September 11 attacks brought attention to geopolitical concerns and threats, stealing some of the market's thunder through the morning, just like news of a CIA warnings of possible terror attacks in Paris tonight pressured the market in the afternoon... Accordingly, the major averages spent the session in a steady drift lower, with the major averages finishing below last Friday's closing levels as participants sold on the news... Among the laggards of note were the retail, real estate operations, gold, aluminum, homebuilding, drug retailing, transportation, and non-metal mining groups...

Leaders to the upside of note included the internet, computer services, security systems, storage, insurance, oil & gas services, and healthcare services groups... Elsewhere, the bond market took a hit, with the 10-year note closing down 11/32, bringing its yield up to 4.20%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1198/2043, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1470/1696

See everyone at the Casino tomorrow.:hi:

Perhaps the "Happy Days Are Here Again" reports will sink in then. B-)

[54anickel]

26. Ewww! I missed a couple of good ones with all the Condi stuff going

on today.

Economic Data Leaks Should Be Punished - Traders

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=200404080924MKTNEWS_MAINWIRE_8EC8_395

LONDON, April 8 (MktNews) - Traders are calling for individuals involved in trading on a suspected leak of US payrolls data for April last Friday to be severely punished, a Market News Survey found Thursday. They said the authorities had to send a message that such behaviour would not be tolerated.

Almost all of the 50 traders contacted by MNI thought there had indeed been a leak of the data and that insider trading was involved. A smaller number thought there might be a clique profiting from such leaks, mentioning US and German banks and large hedge funds.

snip>

A trader at a German bank said, "Clearly the non-farm payrolls were leaked. The Bund fell 150 pips to a low of 114.10 just before the release, making the market untradeable."

snip>

An FX trader at a Swiss bank, expressing the views of many, said, "It has to be investigated and punished severely as it causes irregular market moves at a time when FX markets are already criticized for being unregulated."

A trader at a European bank said, "It is an outrage. The tendency within most countries is to adhere to certain ethical guidelines, rules and a code of conducts. If you don't you are expelled from the market."

"While the German and Japanese authorities seem to have little appetite for cleaning this sort of thing up, the US employment leaks of the last two months should be investigated and the users of inside information -- and we all know who was dealing ahead of the official release -- should be brought to book," a trader at a UK bank said.

A trader at a French bank said he thought an insider trading ring was in operation. "There definitely seems to be an 'inner circle' of those getting this information. Certain large banks and hedge funds are notorious for making money on large trades ahead of data releases."

The trader at the German bank said the leaking was increasing. "It seems to be an increasing problem, particularly in the US, which is a worrying trend." Two other traders agreed, saying they thought the US labour market data had been leaked at least twice in the past three months.


Is the US employment report a turning point?

snip>

It may well have. We simply do not know. All we know is that there are many aspects of the March employment report that do not fit well with the headline euphoria. Those inconsistent facts are:

big snip of the facts>

We do not know if the turnaround in the labour market is sustainable. Most of the commentators who used to minimise the importance of the employment report being a lagging indicator would perhaps not wish to be reminded of that now. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index for April was weak and the employment component of the index had declined from March.

Further, factory orders - a more comprehensive measure of business investment than durable goods orders - had declined for two consecutive months in January and February. This was given short shrift in the media.

Thus, while the US economy might well end up adding nearly 200,000 jobs per month in the next eight months leading up to the presidential election, there is room for scepticism. Although superficially glowing, the employment report for March contains details that are far from encouraging and which indicate that the US labour market is still fragile.

snip>

Whichever way we slice it, it is apparent that the American economy suffers from too many contradictions which would make a smooth landing for the US dollar, interest rates and the stock market improbable.

more...