STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday,March 1, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday,March 1, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 28, 2011

Dow 12,226.34 +95.89 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,782.27 +1.22 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,327.22 +7.34 (+0.55%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.48 +0.05 (+1.58%)
30-Year Bond 4.53 +0.03 (+0.74%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -1.0% -0.6% -2.5%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 61.5 60.5 60.8
Mar 01 15:00 Auto Sales Mar NA NA 3.95M
Mar 01 15:00 Truck Sales Mar NA NA 5.64M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Demeter]

4. Madoff’s Legacy: How the JPMorgan Chase Suit Relates to the Financial Crisis

http://www.bnet.com/blog/financial-business/madoff-8217s-legacy-how-the-jpmorgan-chase-suit-relates-to-the-financial-crisis/10371

To observe the financial crisis in microcosm, see the allegations that J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) kept Bernie Madoff as a banking customer despite suspecting for years that he was crooked. It’s all there: Wall Street duplicity and greed; managerial negligence; financial hocus pocus; indifference to risk. And hovering in the background, bumbling securities regulators watching this tragicomedy unfold. As the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission might have it, this man-made catastrophe was avoidable.

Not by coincidence, that pattern is visible in all of the era’s defining scandals. Banks knew that the mortgage loans they were stuffing into CDOs were worthless, for instance. That’s because their own bankers and risk managers told them so. Financial firms knew that the sterling credit ratings bestowed on securities were fictional. And why not — they’d ordered up those AAAs themselves. Bankers knew they were breaking the law in “robo-signing” homeowners out of their houses, since their own legal departments were involved in the racket.

JPMorgan, which was Madoff’s main banker for more than 20 years, says it’s innocent. Perhaps. What remains to be seen is whether Irving Picard, the court-appointed trustee in charge of recovering money for Madoff’s victims, can prove that the company was “complicit” in the fraud or merely incompetent. The charges parallel a suit Picard filed in November against Swiss bank UBS. In both cases, the financial firms are said to have been instrumental in helping Madoff perpetrate fraud...

A MUST READ

[Demeter]

10. Madoff claims Ponzi scheme’s roots legal

Bernard Madoff has claimed his Ponzi scheme, which left investors short of $65bn when it collapsed in 2008, started off as a legitimate business that earned 15 per cent annual returns through much of the 1980s

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/6NPSBB/TPQB13/52KB7/IYZEUI/OJ56AC/GX/t?a1=2011&a2=3&a3=1

[Pale Blue Dot]

32. Construction spending falls in January

(Reuters) - U.S. construction spending fell more than expected in January to its lowest level in five months, a government report showed on Tuesday, pulled down by weak private construction outlays.

The Commerce Department said construction spending fell 0.7 percent to an annual rate of $791.82 billion, the lowest since August. December's spending was revised to show a smaller 1.6 percent drop than the previously reported 2.5 percent decline.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending falling 0.4 percent in January.

Private construction spending in January contracted 1.2 percent as investment in nonresidential projects tumbled 6.9 percent to $244.44 billion, the lowest since August 2004. The percentage decline was the largest since January 1994.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/01/us-usa-economy-construction-idUSTRE7203PS20110301

[Pale Blue Dot]

33. Manufacturing in U.S. Expanded at Faster Pace Last Month

Manufacturing in the U.S. grew in February at the fastest pace since May 2004 as factories added workers and boosted production, indicating more momentum for the expansion.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index increased to 61.4 from 60.8 in January, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Readings greater than 50 signal growth. In Europe, manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in more than 10 years, while the rate of growth at factories in China was the slowest in six months.

Business investment in new equipment is prompting U.S. companies like Eaton Corp. and Deere & Co. to raise profit forecasts as the global economy picks up. The figures underscore Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s testimony to Congress today that the economic recovery this year will be ‘more rapid” than in 2010.

“The fundamentals in the underlying economy still suggest further strengthening of economic activity as we go throughout the year,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. “The manufacturing sector has been experiencing an exceptionally strong rebound.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/ism-index-of-manufacturing-in-u-s-rose-to-61-4-in-february.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil rises above $97 as traders eye Libyan exports

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $97 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as the power struggle in Libya cut crude production and traders mulled whether political upheaval will spread to other oil-rich countries.

Benchmark crude for April delivery was up 40 cents at $97.37 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost 91 cents to settle at $96.97 on Monday.

In London, Brent crude for April delivery was up 24 cents to $112.04 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Libya's top oil official, Shukri Ghanem, said Monday that the country's crude production had been cut by around 50 percent, or about 800,000 barrels a day. International pressure increased on Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi to step down as his supporters and opponents fought in towns outside the capital, Tripoli.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

3. Great to Be Back

Couldn't get on DU since lunch yesterday....what did I miss?

[bread_and_roses]

22. I got in for two minutes earlier - then couldn't get back

till now - don't know if when I navigate away I'll have the same problem. Whatever is screwed up seems to be royally screwed up. See you later....maybe.

[plumbob]

26. Same here- thought it was me

[AnneD]

36. ditto

suspected spying at work because we just got a new IT person appointed.

[Johnny Harpo]

30. We Still Can't Get On DU Normally Here.......

in Columbus (thru Time-Warner/Road Runner).

Using a proxy but not sure if we will get back when we leave.

Since we come to DU first for the REAL news more info on the ptoblem would help ease the frustration.

[skoalyman]

39. it was a dns glitch on the sites end least thats what skinner told me

skinner said it would take a couple hours for it to work through the dns servers.I had to windup changing my dns addresses.Google's dns servers seem to be slow to at refreshing there content. :shrug: who knows,also read that it was just different parts of the country.:tinfoilhat:

[nc4bo]

49. :tinfoilhat:

"This is a test. This station is conducting a test of the Emergency (Internet) Broadcast (Kill) System (Switch). This is only a test."

:tinfoilhat:

[Demeter]

34. I Bet When All Is Revealed

It's going to be domestic, federal, and very bad. Worse than we think.

Because if it weren't any of the above, we'd know already what went down.

The reason why I say this:

My hotmail spam filter has been tampered with--or rather, items that used to go to my inbox because they were cleared by me to "not be spam", are now falling into the spam category.

Somebody fucked with the internet bigtime--gmail may be the only one that collapsed, but everything got rifled.

[AnneD]

37. they are working on...

an internet kill switch. Trust me....they will use it. Our government hypocritically screams when a dictator does it but then develops one here.

[Demeter]

38. Then they really want a bloody revolution

and they are categorically unfit to govern.

[AnneD]

45. Here is a clue for you.....

there are FEMA camps through out the USA and there are RR tracks around them. We are being groomed folks.

As a young teen, I was fascinated with the Holocaust. The more I studied it, the more questions I had. Mom thought it was morbid curiosity but to me it was a puzzle.....

Why did the Jews not see this coming?

Why did they obediently go to the prison camps?

How did descent German people allow this to happen to their friends and neighbours?

How could the Germans not believe this was happening?

Why did they turn in their neighbours?

I had spent too much mental energy trying to figure out the answers. Of all the countries I have visited, the Germans are the most like American-which let me know it could happen anywhere.

Something in this country has drastically changed. All I can liken it to is that we have lost our moral compass. Things that we once unthinkable are acceptable now. I will give you a classic example that shocked and disturbed me so much that I still have not gotten over it yet. At my Sunday school class 2 weeks ago, we were studying several Bible passages (I would have check my Bible for the exact passage). It was about doing what was morally right. As an example, I used the example of torture and that it was MORALLY wrong to harm another human. If you were in tune to Christ, and you should feel uneasy about it at the very least. The more in tune to Christ you are.....the quicker you see falsehood and evil in those encouraging this.

One of our elders that I respected, proceeded to quote me the BS line about sometimes it is done to save lives and that makes it ok. I really went ballistic. At one time I worked in a PSYOP unit and frequently aided in interrogating prisoners. The Geneva Convention was drilled in our heads then. We kept up on the research and torture was not an effective tool to get results. I explained that I felt you could not claim to be a Christian and condone this in any form or fashion. The Pastor took a middle of the road response. In frustration I said...Not all laws are moral or just and should be overturned-slavery use to be legal but it was neither moral or just. To stand by and not speak out is to condone it.

Well, I have not been back since and am still upset. It is a short leap from agreeing to torture them over there to torturing them 'here'. We have gone from wanding to crotch grouping-even to little kids. TSA and HS are doing this AFTER you have reached your destination and are departing the train or bus. And this See Something Say Something-we are being trained to rat out our friends and neighbours.

I don't need to wake up and smell the coffee-fascism is already here.

[tclambert]

60. I bin re-readin' "The Grapes of Wrath." Then I watched some news. Looks like we all became Okies.

Borrow a little money, then the banks come 'n take your land and your jobs. They tell you, "Well, go do sumpin' else." You try, but they make it illegal for you to join a union or earn a decent livin'.

What is wrong with education in America that makes it so we never seem to learn?

[Fuddnik]

44. We can't fall prey to the kill switch gap!

Next thing you know, they'll see the big board!

[amandabeech]

68. And harvest our precious bodily fluids!

And that will lead to a mine shaft gap!



Dr. Strangelove,for those of you who don't remember, was a screamingly funny black comedy about the start of WWIII featuring Peter Sellars in three roles. It was nominated for several Oscars back in '64. Turner Classic Movies played it in February in their run up to the Oscars. I've seen it I don't know how many times, but it was still funny--even if it started at midnight. I give it five stars.

[Robbien]

55. I missed you guys. The internet isn't the same without SMW and WEE

It finally dawned on me to try to get in through a proxy server and *presto* here you all are.

Glad to be lurking here again finally.

[DemReadingDU]

58. Me too. It's been weird all day

but finally able to log in using aol

edit - or maybe DU is fixed now?

[Robbien]

61. Depends on your DNS server

Per Skinner/Elad, takes up to 72 hours for the last ones to use the updated file

I expect the DNS server I use is one of the slow pokes because my carrier is a little known dialup service which probably uses one of the slower cheaper DNS servers.

Surfing the net without being able to check in to DU from time to time is just wrong somehow.

[Demeter]

63. Were you locked out over the weekend?

I just lost it Monday afternoon until sometime after breakfast.

[Robbien]

66. I was able to read WEE on Saturday up to Taft

Wasn't around on Sunday and on Monday morning you guys were not accessible. Ack!

It took me a while (almost a whole day) to think of maybe using a proxy to get in since I still can't get in the usual way today.

[AnneD]

70. Taft got stuck in the bath tub....

and the tread went down the drain from there!

[DemReadingDU]

71. I think I lost access Monday, late afternoon

I still can't get in using my bookmarked link. Maybe I have to reset the bookmark?

[Demeter]

5. Bank Regulators Said to Push $20 Billion Foreclosure Settlement

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-24/u-s-bank-regulators-said-to-push-20-billion-home-foreclosure-settlement.html

U.S. regulators probing flawed and illegal mortgage-foreclosure practices may try to extract $20 billion of penalties in a settlement with banks that serviced the loans, according to two people briefed on the talks.

Terms of the potential accord, from regulators led by the Treasury Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development, haven’t been formally presented to banks, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions aren’t public. Lenders embroiled in the investigation include Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co...The government originally floated a $25 billion penalty, which banks rejected, one person said. Banks are resisting a large settlement because while regulators have found widespread flaws and violations in documents and procedures, the federal agencies said they so far have uncovered few examples of wrongful foreclosures.!!!

Regulators are weighing whether the settlement should require servicers to write down mortgage principal that would lower home-loan payments for distressed borrowers, the person briefed on the talks said.

[Demeter]

6. US freezes $30bn of Tripoli assets

Moves by international community to freeze assets has become a key component of the growing pressure on Colonel Gaddafi

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/TWK799/0G3VZ8/PNGIU/PRKNLR/721QNM/9A/t?a1=2011&a2=3&a3=1

[Demeter]

7. Midwest farm bonanza comes with a crop of problems

Spiraling food commodity prices are triggering a surge in the price of farmland, leaving estate agents, farmers and their bankers in the US Midwest celebrating, writes Gillian Tett

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/TWK799/0G3VZ8/PNGIU/PRKNLR/PR4OZB/9A/t?a1=2011&a2=3&a3=1

[Demeter]

8. Egypt military uneasy over business ties

Press reporting on the military has been banned in Egypt since 1956 but with the generals now running the country the military’s businesses could come under more scrutiny

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/TWK799/0G3VZ8/PNGIU/PRKNLR/ZBS4I2/9A/t?a1=2011&a2=3&a3=1

[Demeter]

9. Regarding this cartoon...

Is this Walker related to the BFEE?

[Demeter]

11. Former AMD manager in talks to plead guilty

A former supply chain manager of Advanced Micro Devices, who prosecutors allege provided inside information to hedge funds, was in talks to plead guilty, his lawyer said on Monday

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/26UVRV/JQU4J/LQ5SQL/UUYA10/B7/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=28

[Demeter]

12. Big Drop in New Foreclosures?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/big-drop-in-new-foreclosures.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

...Since the robosigning scandal broke, foreclosure activity has been down. RealtyTrac reported that foreclosures in January were up only 1% over December levels, which was down 17% from the year prior.

But RealtyTrac captures every foreclosure filing in that particular report, so it is a mix of new foreclosure filings plus additional filings for foreclosures already underway (the number of filings required varies by state, but the minimum number is three, and the number can also be increased if a borrower gets a foreclosure suspended, say by entering into a payment catchup plan, and then has the process restarted later on)...

[Demeter]

27. Fannie, Freddie, FHA combined REO Inventory at Record Level

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/fannie-freddie-fha-combined-reo.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29

The combined REO (Real Estate Owned) inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA increased to a record 295,307 units at the end of Q4, although REO inventory decreased slightly for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in Q4 (compared to Q3). The REO inventory increased 71% compared to Q4 2009 (year-over-year comparison).




This graph shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and FHA through Q4 2010.

The REO inventory for the "Fs" has increased sharply over the last year, from 172,368 at the end of 2009 to a record 295,307 at the end of 2010...Also, this is just a portion of the total REO inventory. Private label securities and banks and thrifts also hold a substantial number of REOs.

[Demeter]

13. Matt Stoller: AG Tom Miller Negotiating in Secret with Banks Over Whether to Put Bankers in Jail

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/matt-stoller-ag-tom-miller-negotiating-in-secret-with-banks-over-whether-to-put-bankers-in-jail.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

...Look at what he’s saying. Miller has decided that he will keep the public in the dark about the negotiations over how banks will deal with the homeowners they hurt. They can’t know when decisions will be made. They can’t know if they will have principal reduced. They can’t know if they will get loan modifications. They can’t know if they will get restitution if they’ve been illegally kicked out of their homes. Miller will not even speak to criminal prosecutions of bankers over mortgage fraud because he is still negotiating with the criminals over whether to bring charges.

The backstory here is that Miller had exuberantly vowed jail time for bankers to Iowa citizens, before backtracking on his commitment. This level of deception by high officials is now routine when it comes to cracking down on lawbreaking by big banks.

It’s not obvious to me why Miller backtracked. I don’t think he ever had any intention of charging any bankers with any criminal charges, that’s just not how law enforcement works these days. My guess is that he didn’t realize that his initial promise to Iowa voters would be taken seriously, and then it blew up in the press. So he decided to stop talking and do the negotiating in secret...

Tom Miller may not realize that keeping homeowner victims in the dark while negotiating with the perpetrators is the wrong way to approach criminal activities. But the rest of us do.

[Demeter]

14. Guest Post: The 10 Most Systemically Risky Financial Firms in the US

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/guest-post-the-10-most-systemically-risky-financial-firms-in-the-us.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

...While the financial crisis started in the summer of 2007, it was not until the early autumn of 2008 that systemic risk fully emerged. Around this time, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, and effectively Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, all failed. An important insight is that this risk was due not just to these failed financial firms, but also to other large banks, investment banks, and insurance companies that were struggling. In a financial crisis, it is the capital shortfall in the system as a whole that causes financial markets to freeze with devastating follow-on effects for the real economy.

And after the capital shortfall in late 2008, over the next 3-4 months, the economy fell off a cliff. Stock markets worldwide fell between 40%-50%, GDP dropped 3% in developed nations and international trade fell 10%. The link between the financial sector’s undercapitalisation and economic collapse is unmistakable. For that reason alone it is imperative to measure the build-up of systemic risk.

The first step then is to be clear about what constitutes systemic risk. A natural assumption is that systemic risk emerges when the aggregate financial sector falls short of capital, and that the costs of this risk increase with the magnitude of the shortfall. Given this assumption, everything follows. Economic theory provides a precise measure of systemic risk for a financial firm (see for example Acharya 2010a, 2010b). It consists of two parts. First, the costs to society of a systemic crisis measured per dollar of capital shortage in entire financial sector, times a second part which is the firm’s anticipated contribution to the capital shortage in that sector.

The first term – expected systemic costs – is difficult to measure precisely, but it is the same for all firms, so it has no impact on which firms are systemic on a relative basis. The second term, formulated as the anticipated percentage contribution of the institution to costs incurred in a financial sector collapse, is clearly measurable...



Figure 1. Systemic risk top ten (as of 20 February 2011)

[Demeter]

15. Does The U.S. Really Have A Fiscal Crisis?

http://baselinescenario.com/2011/02/24/does-the-u-s-really-have-a-fiscal-crisis/

The United States faces some serious medium-term fiscal issues, but by any standard measure it does not face an immediate fiscal crisis. Overindebted countries typically have a hard time financing themselves when the world becomes riskier – yet turmoil in the Middle East is pushing down the interest rates on US government debt. We are still seen as a safe haven.

Yet leading commentators and politicians today repeat the line “we’re broke” and argue there is no alternative other than immediate spending cuts at the national and state level.

Which view is correct? And what does this tell us about where our political system is heading?

Our main fiscal issues are three (see my testimony to the Senate Budget Committee earlier this month). The most immediate problem is that our largest banks and closely related parts of the financial system blew themselves up in 2007-08. The ensuring recession and associated loss of tax revenue will end up pushing up our government debt, as a percent of GDP, by around 40 percent. Very little of this debt increase was due to the fiscal stimulus; mostly it was caused by lower tax revenue, because of the slump in output and employment.

The financial system poses a major risk to our fiscal outlook over the next few years. Unless you think that the Dodd-Frank reform bill really ended “too big to fail” and the associated excessive risk-taking culture, you should worry a great deal about the boom-bust-bailout-fiscal damage scenario that the Bank of England now refers to routinely as the “doom loop”...MORE

[Demeter]

16. Washington Wrecks the Economy: More Evidence By Dean Baker

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/02/22/washington_wrecks_the_economy_more_evidence/?ref=c3

We now have even more evidence that inept policies from Washington are causing enormous suffering across the country. It is not quite the line that the right-wingers are pushing. The new evidence is that the stimulus worked and was in fact more effective than had been predicted...This is hugely important for macro policy debates because it suggests that more stimulus would provide a further boost to the economy and reduction in unemployment. This means that the only reason that we are sitting here with 25 million people unemployed and underemployed is that the politicians in Washington are too intimidated by the Wall Street deficit hawks.

The deficit hawks have used their enormous political power and control over the media to shut down any further discussion of stimulus. They have managed to completely dominate public debate with their brand of flat-earth economics. They are using the crisis that was created through their greed and incompetence to reduce hugely valued public benefits, like Social Security and Medicare. And, now they are using the crisis that they have created for state and local governments to destroy public sector unions.

This looks really awful because it is. Our nations' leaders are deliberately inflicting enormous pain on tens of millions of people to advance their political agenda. This new study helps to prove this fact.

[Demeter]

21. GOP spending plan would cost 700,000 jobs, new report says

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/28/AR2011022802634.html?referrer=emailarticle

A Republican plan to sharply cut federal spending this year would destroy 700,000 jobs through 2012, according to an independent economic analysis set for release Monday.

The report, by Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, offers fresh ammunition to Democrats seeking block the Republican plan, which would terminate dozens of programs and slash federal appropriations by $61 billion over the next seven months.

Zandi, an architect of the 2009 stimulus package who has advised both political parties, predicts that the GOP package would reduce economic growth by 0.5 percentage points this year, and by 0.2 percentage points in 2012, resulting in 700,000 fewer jobs by the end of next year.

His report comes on the heels of a similar analysis last week by the investment bank Goldman Sachs, which predicted that the Republican spending cuts would cause even greater damage to the economy, slowing growth by as much as 2 percentage points in the second and third quarters of this year...Republicans have dismissed both reports, calling them the product of the same flawed economic thinking that produced President Obama's $814 billion stimulus package -- a bill that Democrats argued would keep unemployment below 8 percent...

[Demeter]

17. How Common Is Financial Infidelity?

IT WAS THE STRAW THAT BROKE THIS CAMEL'S BACK--BUYING A $300,000 HOUSE IN CALIFORNIA WITHOUT INFORMING THE WIFE...CALIFORNIA BEING A COMMUNITY PROPERTY AND DEBT STATE...AND ME ON THE OTHER COAST, WITH DISABLED CHILD

http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/how-common-is-financial-infidelity/?ref=business

..According a December online poll commissioned by ForbesWoman and the National Endowment for Financial Education, and covered in a recent Forbes.com blog post, 31 percent of Americans who have combined their finances said they lied to their spouses about money.

As the Forbes.com piece details, such lies often consisted of “hiding cash, minor purchases and bills” and sometimes of “hiding major purchases, keeping secret bank accounts and lying about their debt or earnings.”

Meanwhile, according to a different July survey from the nonprofit CESI Debt Solutions, 80 percent of spouses spend money that their partner doesn’t know about. The secret spending occurs in categories such as clothing and accessories, food and dining, beauty and personal care items, gifts, and alcohol, among other areas, the CESI Debt Solutions survey found.

If you’re worried that your spouse may be lying to you about money, learn to spot the red flags of dishonesty, like a spouse changing the topic away from money and insisting on handling the finances alone. And if you’ve been financially unfaithful or your spouse has, here’s some advice from other blogs on how to come clean about it and how to recover from it — important advice considering that not stopping such behavior can lead to debt problems, arguments and even divorce...

[Pale Blue Dot]

18. U.S. Stock Futures Rise Before Manufacturing Report; GM, Baker Hughes Gain

U.S. stock-index futures rose before a report that may show manufacturing in the world’s largest economy grew in February at the fastest pace in almost seven years.

Baker Hughes Inc., the oil-services contractor, gained 1.1 percent as the U.S. permitted drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. General Motors Co. advanced 0.7 percent after the head of the company’s European division predicted a profit.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in March gained 0.6 percent to 1,333.4 at 10:39 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased 0.5 percent to 12,271 today, while Nasdaq-100 Index futures advanced 0.7 percent to 2,367.25.

The benchmark S&P 500 advanced for a second day yesterday as crude oil fell and personal incomes climbed more than forecast, increasing February’s monthly rally to 3.2 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/u-s-stock-futures-rise-before-manufacturing-report-gm-baker-hughes-gain.html

[Demeter]

19. Government shutdown could cause SEC brownout

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20110227/REG/302279978

The SEC's schedule of investment adviser examinations will likely grind to a halt if the federal government is forced to shut down Friday.

Advertisement


“In general, under a government shutdown only essential functions can be performed,” said Securities and Exchange Commission spokesman John Nester. “The SEC is conducting contingency planning to determine which of the commission's functions would fall into this category.”

Most likely, adviser examinations wouldn't be deemed essential. That means that SEC audits or interviews probably would be canceled...

[Demeter]

20. David and Goliath had an easier time of it in the comparison stakes

http://blogs.reuters.com/blog/archives/11589

The planned merger of Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext will create the world’s biggest bourse with 90 percent of on-exchange traded derivatives in Europe....

Speakers at the Reuters Future Face of Finance Summit were upbeat about their chances of winning a slice of this market which shows more promise for the bottom line than share trading, where competition is as ferocious as margins are thin.

Chi-X Europe, busy finalising its merger with BATS, took time out to explain how it too is targetting derivatives — believing that a heady brew of shares, futures, options and ETFs on one platform will turn trading heads their way...

SO, NOW WE KNOW

[Demeter]

23. China Holdings of US Treasuries Revised Up 30%; An Unsustainable Model

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/china-holdings-of-us-treasuries-revised.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29

Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holding of US treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago.

I am not surprised given that persistent rumors of China dumping treasuries made little mathematical sense from a balance of trade standpoint. Instead, I suggested China was accumulating treasuries via trading desks in the UK. We now see that is precisely the case...The odds of China dumping US treasuries are tiny. The last thing China wants to do is put massive upward pressure on the Yuan, and dumping treasuries would likely do just that.

Moreover, please consider the basic math. The US runs a trade deficit, so other countries accumulate dollars. For more on the essential math, please see US Dollar About to Lose Reserve Currency Status - Fact or Fantasy?

Given that dollars held by foreign central banks earn no interest, governments buy other US assets instead, notably US treasuries. Last year China's bought massive amounts of US treasuries via UK banks or brokers...

[Demeter]

24. Guest Post: Amity Shlaes: Forgotten History – When Unions Go Bust, We All Do

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/guest-post-amity-shlaes-forgotten-history-%E2%80%93-when-unions-go-bust-we-all-do.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

Busting unions gave Calvin Coolidge the White House, but it gave America the Great Depression...

...Scott Walker is a paragon of virtue who will soon be embraced by the American public, just like his union-crushing predecessors Calvin Coolidge and Ronald Reagan. According to Shlaes’s account, Coolidge, then governor of Massachusetts, stood boldly against badly abused Boston policemen who walked off the job in 1919 and left the city unprotected against looters. After firing the policemen, Coolidge became a national hero and was promptly swept into the Vice President’s office on a wave of popular admiration. When President Warren Harding died, Coolidge took office and it was suddenly Morning in America. As Shlaes tells it:

“Boston Police’ remained American code for the principle that union causes do not trump others. The concern that the U.S. might succumb to European-style revolutions lifted. Strikes abated. Wages rose without unions in Motor City. Private-sector union membership declined. Joblessness dropped. Companies poured cash, which they otherwise would have spent on union relations, into innovation.

Let us fill in some finer detail, shall we?

As Shlaes admits, the Boston police force had been grossly abused with long hours and horrific conditions. And it was true that there was some disorder when they walked off the job, though she somewhat overstates the case. It is also true that Coolidge’s response made his reputation as a Republican politician.

But it was not exactly popular enthusiasm that wafted Coolidge into the White House. Actually, there was a huge orchestrated effort to push Coolidge by powerful financial interests. He ended up on the ticket with Warren Harding not so much because of his overwhelming appeal to the American public – he was known for being taciturn, unsociable, and downright weird (Alice Roosevelt Longworth wondered if he had been “weaned on a pickle”). Rather, it was his overwhelming appeal to American bankers.

They knew a good thing when they saw it. MORE

[xchrom]

25. recommend -- anybody know what's happening about trying to get on DU? nt

[snot]

35. not to be overly conspiratorial, but

a couple of days ago, my twitter page wouldn't load for a day or so. I too was unable to reach DU normally yesterday. I have not had trouble with any other sites. It raised in my mind a question as to whether someone here was testing their own ability to shut down portions of the internets.

[Robbien]

59. Skinner/Elad said they messed up on the DNS WHOIS info

and didn't notice until it was too late. So DU was given a new domain number and not all DNS servers update their files daily. Skinner/Elad said it could take up to 72 hours for the DNS server stranglers to finally use the newest file.

[Demeter]

28. Is the Fed blowing bubbles in structured finance and insurance?

http://blogs.reuters.com/christopher-whalen/2011/02/23/aig-redux-is-the-fed-blowing-bubbles-in-structured-finance-and-insurance/

A number of commentators have raised the question of whether the low-interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve are stoking global inflation in commodities, food and energy. The answer to that question seems to be yes, but the inflationary pressure caused by the Fed’s purchases of US Treasury debt and zero short term interest rates is being manifested in many sectors and features the appearance of new “special purpose vehicles” in the insurance sector.

The reckless practices and financial transactions that led to the collapse of first Enron, then WorldCom and later American International Group (”AIG”) are alive and well, in large part due to the low-interest rate policies of the Fed and a good bit of credulity on the part of state legislators and insurance regulators...

WHAT FOLLOWS IS A LONG, COMPLICATED EXPLANATION OF THE LATEST FLIM-FLAM AND CONCLUDES:

This week in The Institutional Risk Analyst, we feature a comment titled “Inflation or Deflation? Or is it Global Weimar?” The deleterious effects of the Fed’s low interest rate policies is visible in the subsidies to banks and the low yields paid out to savers, but the negative influence is also seen in investor behavior.

The transaction above is by no means unique and typifies the norm in many transactions between regulated insurers and major OTC derivatives dealer banks today. But the question is this: Does anyone at the Fed or relevant insurance regulators know or care? One veteran insurance industry observer responded: “The Fed knows not, nor cares. A few insurance regulators get the joke. Of those, very few care enough to act: NY, California, Texas, perhaps still Illinois.”

[Demeter]

29. Bankers Apoplectic Over Arizona’s Republican Dominated Senate Passing Chain of Title Bill, 28-2

http://mandelman.ml-implode.com/2011/02/bankers-apoplectic-over-arizona%E2%80%99s-republican-dominated-senate-passing-chain-of-title-bill-28-2/

Bankers everywhere must be walking in circles, muttering to themselves, perhaps breaking out in hives. And I have to imagine that banking industry lobbyists are in some kind of trouble with their masters today, with phones being slammed down after CEOs have screamed:

“Damn it, how could you have let this happen? We gave you an open checkbook filled with blank checks… and you couldn’t even scare off, or buy off, the Arizona Senate… the Republican controlled Senate? And you call yourselves lobbyists?”
SLAM!

[xchrom]

31. ...

:spray:

[Fuddnik]

42. They almost pulled it off late last year.

Until they got caught with their pants down, and Obama vetoed the electronic notorization bill.

I expect it to sneak back into a bill soon. The budget bill perhaps?

[Roland99]

40. Inflation from oil spike to be modest, brief, Bernanke says

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-inflation-rise-will-be-modest-temporary-2011-03-01-103230

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke stuck his neck out on Tuesday and said the increase in inflation from the spike in oil prices will be modest and temporary.

...

Bernanke said that the cost pressures from higher fuel and gas prices are being offset by stable wages.

Some economists are also worried that the rising gas prices will negate the positive stimulus expected from the payroll tax cut that took effect this year. The few extra dollars of take-home pay will only go to fill up fuel tanks instead of boosting spending on goods and services as hoped.

Some, like ex-White House advisor Christina Romer, argue that the economy could benefit from another round of Fed bond buys when the current $600 billion purchase plan ends.

:eyes:

[Pale Blue Dot]

41. "Higher" offset by "stable"?

We truly are slowly boiling frogs.

[Fuddnik]

43. ?

Where in the hell did he get a degree? Marx Brothers College? P.T.Barnum University?

Higher means, you know, higher, kinda.

Stable means flatlined. As in no SS increase for two consecutive years. Or maybe it means a fixed minimum wage.

The Bernank is suffering from irrational euphemism.

[Demeter]

46. Bernanke Is a Crook

and the sooner the world deals with it, the better.

[jtuck004]

48. US National Average Home Prices in 2006 were $268,000.

The Bernank, in response to a reporter's question about what the worst case scenario was if home prices declined...

"Well, I guess I don't buy your premise. It's a pretty unlikely possibility. We've never had a decline in house
prices on a nationwide basis". here...

US National Average Home Prices in March 2009 were $218,000. And 27 million people were underemployed, 40 million set a new record for food stamps, and the only thing stopping us from setting a new record in foreclosures may be the illegal behavior of the banks that own the assets.

And now the Bernanke says the inflation from oil prices is going to be "modest".

Prepare...

[Po_d Mainiac]

51. Then median household income would need to be $87K to support that price. n/t

[jtuck004]

52. Who knows, he may be right this time. eom

[neverforget]

53. How can he say that with a straight face?

:wtf: :puke:_

[Fuddnik]

54. Botox injections paralyze the muscles.

Just think of how ugly Alan Greenspan would be without it.:puke:

[Demeter]

47. Board Member of Goldman Sachs and Procter & Gamble Charged in Insider Trading Scheme

http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2011/2011-53.htm

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced insider trading charges against a Westport, Conn.-based business consultant who has served on the boards of directors at Goldman Sachs and Procter & Gamble for illegally tipping Galleon Management founder and hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam with inside information about the quarterly earnings at both firms as well as an impending $5 billion investment by Berkshire Hathaway in Goldman.

The SEC’s Division of Enforcement alleges that Rajat K. Gupta, a friend and business associate of Rajaratnam, provided him with confidential information learned during board calls and in other aspects of his duties on the Goldman and P&G boards. Rajaratnam used the inside information to trade on behalf of some of Galleon’s hedge funds, or shared the information with others at his firm who then traded on it ahead of public announcements by the firms. The insider trading by Rajaratnam and others generated more than $18 million in illicit profits and loss avoidance. Gupta was at the time a direct or indirect investor in at least some of these Galleon hedge funds, and had other potentially lucrative business interests with Rajaratnam...

MORE

[Robbien]

62. Rajat only sat on insider info 23 seconds before blabbing to Raj

Rajat was consistently sharing secret info. According to the article it sounds as if he couldn't keep anything to himself.

http://www.businessinsider.com/rajat-gupta-called-raj-rajartnam-as-soon-as-he-discovered-berkshire-hathway-investment-2011-3

[Pale Blue Dot]

50. The Bernanke doesn't seem to be making investors happy today.

Even watered-down phony baloney reality spooks them. How long will the market last when it accepts actual reality?

[alterfurz]

56. re: today's Walker cartoon

2016?--those of us all too familiar with the true extent of Scottie's overweening ambition and power lust know he's already thinking: 2012!

[DemReadingDU]

57. this is a test

edit - all kinds of weird things with DU today

[Demeter]

64. I'd Call This An Inkling Day

as in, some people are getting an inkling of how bad reality really is.

tomorrow will tell us if they blabbed to their Facebook friends.

[Demeter]

65. Outages for Bank of America's online customers (STOLEN FROM OHIOCHICK)

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2011/03/outages_for_bank_of_americas_o.html

NEW YORK -- Customers of Bank of America are again having problems accessing their accounts online.

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based company says the outages began Monday and started again Tuesday around 1:30 p.m.

Tara Burke, a company spokeswoman, said the outages were the result of system upgrades over the weekend. She declined to say whether the company had anticipated that the upgrades would result in outages. But she said that no customer information was compromised and that the problems were not the result of hacking.

"We hope to have it restored as quickly as possible," Burke said.

WHY DON'T I BELIEVE THIS? WHAT BANK IN ITS RIGHT MIND DOES UPDATES DURING BUSINESS HOURS?

Bank of America's online banking service also experienced outages for almost an entire day in January.

JULIAN, IS THAT YOU? OR ANONYMOUS?

[Demeter]

67. San Francisco Fed picks Williams to succeed Yellen

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110301/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_williams

John Williams, the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank's head researcher whose work suggests the Fed's bond-buying has helped restore millions of jobs, will succeed Janet Yellen to lead the regional Fed bank.

Williams, 48, will take up the post of president and chief executive effective Tuesday, the San Francisco Fed said in a statement.

Williams will join other regional Fed presidents and the Fed Board of Governors in Washington in shaping U.S. monetary policy, although he will not have a vote this year on the Fed's Open Market Committee under the usual rotation of Fed bank presidents. The Fed's next policy meeting is on March 15.

His appointment adds to the dovish composition of the U.S. central bank's policy-setting committee, which is also set to lose two vocal inflation hawks in coming months. Still, analysts said he may not be as dovish as his predecessor.

...................................

The appointment of a president with a dovish outlook comes as the Fed faces the exit of at least two hawks from its policy-setting committee.

The board has one vacancy already, and at the end of March Kevin Warsh, a hawk skeptical of recent monetary easing, steps down. Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who used all of his votes on the Fed's policy-setting committee last year to dissent on Fed easing, faces mandatory retirement on October 1.

I'M SORRY, BUT 48 IS TOO YOUNG TO SCREW UP THE ENTIRE WORLD ECONOMY.

[Demeter]

69. Feb auto sales jump despite gas price spike

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110301/bs_nm/us_auto_sales

U.S. auto sales rose more than 20 percent in February, exceeding the most bullish forecasts as the lure of discounts from automakers led by General Motors Co outweighed concerns about higher oil prices for car shoppers.

The gain put the industry on track for its highest sales rate since August 2009 when the government's "cash for clunkers" credits spurred a short-lived boom.

GM led with a 46 percent sales gain, stoked by incentives that also led the industry at an estimated $3,700 in spending per vehicle on average in February.

Toyota Motor Corp, which was bouncing back from depressed sales a year earlier, posted a 42 percent sales gain for February. Nissan Motor Co had a 32 percent increase after offering more aggressive discounts of its own. (For a graphic of U.S. February light vehicle sales, click: http://r.reuters.com/wur38r )

MORE

[Festivito]

72. Debt: 02/25/2011 14,137,541,098,872.71 (UP 17,733,276,853.22) (Fri, UP a lot.)

Debt: 02/25/2011 14,137,541,098,872.71 (UP 17,733,276,853.22) (Fri, UP a lot.)
(Good day.)
Tracert cannot resolve DU nor 216.158.28.198, let alone trace.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,511,339,835,005.19 + 4,626,201,263,867.52
UP 25,792,712,781.54 + DOWN 8,059,435,928.32

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,210.85 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.63, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,444,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,393.5.
A family of three owes $136,180.49. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,046,476,684.96.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,335,632,125.14.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,260,289,153.36.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 102 reports in 148 days of FY2011 averaging 5.65B$ per report, 3.89B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 695 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/25/2011 14,137,541,098,872.71 BHO (UP 3,510,664,049,959.63 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,575,918,067,981.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,420,338,478,466.66 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/04/2011 +000,096,985,369.31 ------------*******
02/07/2011 -000,024,110,721.58 ---- Mon
02/08/2011 +000,098,708,298.02 ------------*******
02/09/2011 +000,070,875,766.12 ------------*******
02/10/2011 -016,083,331,993.98 -
02/11/2011 -000,131,455,172.80 ---
02/14/2011 -001,050,366,540.96 -- Mon
02/15/2011 +048,146,191,309.44 ------------**********
02/16/2011 +000,114,208,468.26 ------------********
02/17/2011 -011,510,944,063.77 -
02/18/2011 +000,193,465,100.84 ------------********
02/22/2011 +000,575,498,293.73 ------------******** Tue
02/23/2011 +000,604,643,024.49 ------------********
02/24/2011 -006,532,296,295.79 --
02/25/2011 +025,792,712,781.54 ------------**********

40,360,783,622.87 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4751329&mesg_id=4751363

[Festivito]

73. Debt: 02/28/2011 14,194,764,339,462.64 (UP 57,223,240,589.93) (Mon, UP big.)

(Good day.)
NSLookup could work.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,565,541,417,510.14 + 4,629,222,921,952.50
UP 54,201,582,504.95 + UP 3,021,658,084.98

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,210.63 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.63, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,465,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,574.07.
A family of three owes $136,722.22. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 6,583,427,420.63.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,608,399,194.44.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,459,741,155.91.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 103 reports in 151 days of FY2011 averaging 6.15B$ per report, 4.19B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 692 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/28/2011 14,194,764,339,462.64 BHO (UP 3,567,887,290,549.56 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,633,141,308,570.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,530,440,911,446.22 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/07/2011 -000,024,110,721.58 ---- Mon
02/08/2011 +000,098,708,298.02 ------------*******
02/09/2011 +000,070,875,766.12 ------------*******
02/10/2011 -016,083,331,993.98 -
02/11/2011 -000,131,455,172.80 ---
02/14/2011 -001,050,366,540.96 -- Mon
02/15/2011 +048,146,191,309.44 ------------**********
02/16/2011 +000,114,208,468.26 ------------********
02/17/2011 -011,510,944,063.77 -
02/18/2011 +000,193,465,100.84 ------------********
02/22/2011 +000,575,498,293.73 ------------******** Tue
02/23/2011 +000,604,643,024.49 ------------********
02/24/2011 -006,532,296,295.79 --
02/25/2011 +025,792,712,781.54 ------------**********
02/28/2011 +054,201,582,504.95 ------------********** Mon

94,465,380,758.51 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4752382&mesg_id=4753430