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Worst-case is that all seven (or more?) of the reactors with cooling system failures (two already in meltdown, and possibly a third) suffer complete meltdown and the last resort measure of pouring sea water and boron on them fails. This could turn Japan into a waste land and poison large swaths of Pacific Ocean sea life, as well as spreading radiation to other Pacific Rim countries (including the U.S.) And in between these best- and worst-case scenarios is complete meltdown at several plants.
In the best-case scenario, there is also the problem of the volumes of sea water being pumped onto these cores and where it is going. (One of the cores has been reported to be leaking water.) The likelihood is that sea water will have to pumped in, on a continuing basis, for months, maybe for years.
The worst-case scenario (or the in-betweens) depend on a number of factors, none of them very good, at this point. No more earthquakes or major after-shocks hampering the three last resort sea water operations. (Japan's earthquake agency yesterday predicted a 7.0 in the next few days.) No more plants going critical. How many can what surely are exhausted, distraught managers and workers handle? Will the infrastructure they need--roads, communications, electricity--hold up at every needed point? There are already problems with malfunctioning valves and gauges. What if there is a miscalculation (as to water levels, what's happening in the cores, etc.)? And what if that one miscalculation--one mistake, one misreading, from a malfunctioning gauge, or an exhausted, distraught manager, worker or team--causing an explosion in one nuke plant cascades to the other nearby plants (all packed together at one site)? On top of the terrible burden of dealing with nuke plant meltdowns, there is the confusion and stress of evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people from the nuke plant areas, and the probable deaths of at least 10,000 people from the original earthquake/tsunami. Stress levels must be off the charts.
The risk of a worst-case scenario is real--and its consequences are so dire that they cannot be understated. Anyone trying to minimize them is either a fool or a bought-and-paid-for propagandist. The only forgivable ones might be Japanese officials trying to prevent panic. But "panic" in the rest of us, who are not in immediate danger, is a good thing. We should be panicked--not to go off screaming hysterically and uselessly, but to demand that nuke plants be decommissioned in earthquake-prone areas, that no more be built in such areas and possibly complete stoppage of this industry, everywhere, as too risky to life on this planet.
The trouble is that we get lulled--and this highly profitable industry has certainly taken advantage of that. Long periods go by between the Three Mile Islands and the Chernoybls, when nothing happens and we think we're safe and many more plants are built, with heavy-duty propaganda that they are safe. But when something DOES happen--a rare event like a 9.0 earthquake--the risks are humongous. In Japan, the risks have greatly escalated to dozens of nuke plants in the most earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone place on earth, currently with at least SEVEN plants having suffered damage to the their cooling systems, two of them (and probably three) critical, to the point of last resort measures being taken (sea water and boron) to stop partial meltdowns from becoming complete meltdowns, and everything dependent on a country with broken infrastructure and no doubt exhausted officials, managers and workers.
Were these risks too great? Yes! We don't know the outcome yet. This crisis is by no means over and could easily and quickly escalate to the worst-case scenario. But even if it doesn't--and God forbid that it does--we MUST face this risk, head on, and not be lulled and not give in to profit-driven propaganda, ever again. The nuke industry is already out in full force doing P.R. damage control. Understand where they are coming from--the vested interest of their "experts" in academia as well as the industry. Understand also the typical corporate media response in situations where huge corporate profits are at issue--the failure to ask the right questions, the failure to investigate, the failure to hold corporations and government accountable, and all the other journalistic failures we've seen. If the worst doesn't happen and the "word" goes out to minimize what has already happened, as to radiation leaks, and to "black-hole" the magnitude of the risks from nuclear power plants, you won't hear much more about it. The "lull" will have begun...until the next potential armageddon occurs, with yet more such plants spread all over the world.
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