Rebound hinges on blackouts

[AsahinaKimi]

Source: Japan Times/Bloomberg

Power outages could disrupt predicted economic comeback

The economy will probably see a rebound in the second half of this year after a blow that will be determined by the magnitude of electricity disruptions caused by the March 11 disaster, according to a survey of economists.

Banks are split on whether the nation will slip into a recession, with Mizuho Securities Co. saying it is "almost certain" and Barclays Capital not seeing a single quarter of contraction.

Annualized growth will trough at 0.4 percent in the second quarter, the median forecasts of nine economists polled by Bloomberg News show.

"The hits to the electricity supply and extent of the hits to the supply chain are making it harder to analyze," said Michael Buchanan, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong, who previously worked at the International Monetary Fund. The longer it takes to restore electricity, the bigger the damage, he said.

At stake for Japan's trading partners is a resumption in exports of components and equipment used in the assembly of goods abroad, such as silicon wafers, liquid-crystal displays and electric machinery. Supply disruptions could result in an increase in business costs as companies opt to hold bigger inventories, according to Moody's Analytics.

Read more: http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20110323n1.html

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Not out of the dark yet...

[truthisfreedom]

1. My gut says they can't possibly avoid a recession.

But the way economies are manipulated these days...

[BrookBrew]

2. It is also possible that a massive rebuild

similar to the depression era (they are already in a 10 year depression) may inject money an renewal into their economy. This does not dismiss the massive human loss from the tsunami but they could experience a positive outcome as well.

No one likes uncertainty. Once they deal with their reactor cooling issue they will be free to focus on forward motion.

[Art_from_Ark]

3. "10-year depression" is a bit of an exaggeration

Before the disaster, the unemployment rate here in Japan had been around 5%, not exactly reminiscent of the 1930s. Of course, families without a breadwinner would consider their own circumstances to be a depression.

[Davis_X_Machina]

4. Great blog-post...

...with complete math here. After the Earthquake: A Long, Hot Summer.

[marasinghe]

5. obviously they have to shut down the blown nukes first. everything else predicated on that.

another question: where do they turn to, for future power?
go back to the nukes; or, try alternatives?
real tough stuff to deal with.

[plumbob]

6. They've got 4 wind farms that haven't missed a lick.

But I know, that's just logic, not massive government subsidized profits to an industry that has never earned an actual dime from operations.

[WatsonT]

7. Japan gets .3%

of it's energy supply from wind.

http://www.japanfs.org/en/pages/030010.html

Denmark, by far the most aggressive supporter of wind energy in the world, with fairly low energy demands (unlike say a heavy industry based economy like Japan) after years of heavy government investment is only able to provide under 20% of their total energy needs with wind power. And they are the worlds leader (about half of all the worlds wind turbines are produced in Denmark).

What makes you think Japan can do better?

[plumbob]

8. Oh, I don't know; something about being one of the world's leaders

in wind research.

http://www.greenoptimistic.com/2010/08/07/wind-lens-turbine/

An innovation in the field of wind power comes from Yokohama’s Renewable Energy International Exhibition 2010, through the form of a so-called “Wind Lens”. Developed by professor Yuji Ohya, the 112-meter in diameter turbine acts just like a magnifying glass, focusing the wind’s power to the center of the hoop.
The professor claims his Wind Lens can double and even triple the power output of a conventional wind turbine, and can also reduce the noise pollution and safety of the installation.

In Texas, wind provided 25% of total electricity in the state several days of December, with hundreds of turbines waiting on 3 new transmission lines being constructed now.

[WatsonT]

9. It wouldn't be the first time

a researcher made a claim that couldn't be substantiated in the real world.

Your plan requires a lot of "ifs" to work out just right. Me, I'm more skeptical.

But even assuming they could get it up to 20%, what covers the other 80%? Also, what happens when a tsunami or other strong storm comes through and knocks them out?