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The Race Heats Up - Kerry moves ahead - Newsweek Web Exclusive

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dArKeR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 02:28 PM
Original message
The Race Heats Up - Kerry moves ahead - Newsweek Web Exclusive
By Brian Braiker

Updated: 12:55 p.m. ET April  10, 2004

After weeks of increasingly violent news from Iraq, presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts now leads the president in a two-way trial heat by seven points (50 percent to 43 percent), according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll.


Even after adding independent candidate Ralph Nader to the hypothetical race, Kerry enjoys a four-point lead (46 percent to 42 percent), with Nader drawing 4 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, just 36 percent of those polled say they are satisfied with "the way things are going in this country." More than half (59 percent) say they are dissatisfied. And while President George W. Bush’s job approval rating remains steady at 49 percent, where it has been since the end of January, the president's favorability ratings are lower than they’ve ever been. Forty-eight percent of those polled view Bush favorably, down four points over last month. Kerry’s ratings remain unchanged at 51 percent favorable.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4709863/
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MaineDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
1. Even with Nader in the mix, Kerry's ahead!
Excellent news! We can't be complacent in this campaign though. We have to fight with everything we have.

This is great news, though.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
2. I'm not worried about Nader
The key here is, Bush's share of the vote is only 42 percent with Nader included and 43 percent if he's not. Those are horrible numbers for an incumbent president, period. That's more important to look at than Kerry's percentage, because undecideds go to the challenger overwhelmingly. If people don't like Bush after more than three years in the WH, they're not going to start now.
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baby_bear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I don't completely agree, lancdem
Maybe I am just naive, but I really do think that some people who have supported *Bush up to now may just get overwhelmed with all the obvious mistakes and bad policy that have gone on under his watch.

I had a good friend who was an absolute, total Republican, but he said that if WMD were not found in Iraq after what the Bushistas said in the onslaught to war, he would not vote for Bush in November.

Unfortunately, my friend died unexpectedly a couple months ago, but I just can't believe he is the only die-hard Republican who felt/feels betrayed by this misadministration.

Kerry has his work cut out for him, though. As do we all.

s_m

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Crachet2004 Donating Member (725 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #4
17. There are many republicans who cannot vote for Bush.
I am back in the workforce again, and talking to some real diehards, that I have known most of my life.

My best talking points are: Bush lied about WMD (this is the big one), and now look at the death toll in Iraq-and they are going to bring back the draft, to defend Dick Cheney and Halliburton's right to rape Iraq; look at the price of gas-with Texas oilmen running the show, what did you expect? They are going to do to Social Security what they did to Welfare; healthcare is a mess and they don't give a damn about you and your kids-their family values only concern their own families.

To be honest, their best comeback is that republicans and democrats are 'the same'. To call for forty thousound 'fresh, new' troops in Iraq as I guess John Kerry has, does'nt differentiate us from the republicans. Instead, it smells like he supports a draft, which is in no way better than what the republicans are doing. John Kerry better tighten up on some of his rhetoric, and make his positions clearly different from the GOP ones, and by different, I do not mean worse.

Goddamnit, show some vision! Stop hinting and mumbling. Take stands, and then don't take one step backwards.

On the war, say: 'It is clear Bushco manipulated and obfuscated what intelligence we had, because he was pursuing his own private agenda-and not surprisingly, the war in Iraq is turning out badly...I will get us out of there as quickly as I can, with help from the appropriate international organizations'.

On everything else, say this: 'All of us are free in this country, yet we have a system of laws and accepted behavior that limits our actions, because the freedom of others must also be guaranteed...except for the GOP and their corporate sponsors. There is a myth, perpetuated by them, that it is good for society if corporations and their political hacks don't have to abide by the same rules the rest of us do...that any, tiniest restriction on THEM is bad for the economy and, therefore, bad for America. They will lie, cheat, steal, give unlimited tax-breaks to themselves, and even take us to war to achieve their ends...then wrap themselves in the flag and a holier-than-thou attitude, and presume to tell the rest of us how to run OUR lives! The mantra of those who would hold the well-being of the 'bottom line' to be the highest aspiration of this nation, is 'free markets'. They believe nothing is more important than this souless concept...not honor, nor compassion, or human dignity.

Everywhere we look, we find evidence of the ruin, or impending ruin, caused by this single-minded adherence of the GOP to the myth of 'free-market infallibility'.

Healthcare is a mess in this country. What we are seeing is a failure of the free market system. We see it with the outsourcing of our jobs, with the hiring of 'contractors' in Iraq (the deaths of four of whom, I would remind everyone, sparked the current ongoing unrest in that country-what the hell were they doing over there, anyway?), and in the very governance of our nation. The presidency of the US should not go to the Party willing to stoop the lowest to pick up a dollar, or who is the highest bidder. Free markets are powerful tools, but no one tool can accomplish every job.

When free markets meet compassion, we have our current crisis in healthcare. When free markets meet honor, we have mercenaries running wild, in our name, in Iraq. When free markets meet slave labor, we have outsourcing. When free markets meet politics, we have George Bush and the Republican Party.'
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digno dave Donating Member (992 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. what were the numbers like in 1996 at this point(april)
in the election(between clinton and dole)?
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 03:30 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. I don't believe Dole ever had a lead over Clinton.
I could be wrong, but as I recall it, Dole's candidacy seemed pretty much dead in the water from the start. If Dole ever did have a lead, it was a narrow one.

I believe the last incumbent to trail behind the challenger at this point was Bush Sr.
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Garion_55 Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. heard this on fox yesterday
at this point, clinton was up 8-12 points and he NEVER was behind dole.

gallup did a study of their polls you can find it here

http://www.independent-media.tv/itemprint.cfm?fmedia_id=5685&fcategory_desc=Election%202004

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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #9
16. Clinton was ahead big time. April 1996 Gallup: Clin.49% Dole.34%
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roguevalley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 02:40 PM
Response to Original message
3. God. Finally. America and Americans have no integrity. They have
failed in their character since 9/11. I hope we all
wake up. Now. My BBC ticker says "Bush 'warned' of
al-Qaeda Plot". The world gets it. Too bad we don't.
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osaMABUSh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 09:16 PM
Response to Original message
5. Good news but Kerry's gotta up his own numbers
Bush is going down while Kerry is flat.

Kerry needs a jolt to put him up where Shrub can never catch him.

How about selecting Wes Clark as the VP?
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David__77 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 10:20 PM
Response to Original message
6. A view on Nader
I think that there's a possible dynamic to this: if, say, in early October, Kerry were ahead by 8 points, I believe the media would be Bush cheerleading. I think the media WANTS a "close" election, and anything else is considered detrimental to them. If we have Kerry at 47, Bush at 44 and Nader at 4, I think that there is an advantage to Kerry larger than the 3 points, because at the last minute many Nader supporters WILL end up voting for the only viable alternative to the despicable Bush. We can at least keep this in mind. Plus he might not even be on that many ballots.
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Poiuyt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
7. Electoral College
I won't feel good until Kerry starts doing better in the electoral college surveys.
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 03:32 AM
Response to Reply #7
13. I won't feel good until Kerry's polling over 300 EVs,
which means I may never feel good.
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dolstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 11:54 PM
Response to Original message
8. Nader cuts Kerry's lead in half
What has it Ralph was saying about how he'd take more votes from Bush than from Kerry? I guess Newsweek didn't get that memo.
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mountainvue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 12:53 AM
Response to Original message
10. Just wait 'til next week's
poll numbers come out. Quagmire anyone?
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andino Donating Member (668 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 01:36 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Does anyone....
Does anyone know of a link that would show battle ground state polls? I am wondering how those 18 states are shaping up.
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Poiuyt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. Try these sites:
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JoFerret Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-11-04 09:53 AM
Response to Reply #10
18. There has to be a dip
...and then we will see the Bush assault.
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