China To Overtake U.S. On Science

[go west young man]

Source: BBC online UK

China is on course to overtake the US in scientific output possibly as soon as 2013 - far earlier than expected.

That is the conclusion of a major new study by the Royal Society, the UK's national science academy.

The country that invented the compass, gunpowder, paper and printing is set for a globally important comeback.

An analysis of published research - one of the key measures of scientific effort - reveals an "especially striking" rise by Chinese science.


The study, Knowledge, Networks and Nations, charts the challenge to the traditional dominance of the United States, Europe and Japan.

The figures are based on the papers published in recognised international journals listed by the Scopus service of the publishers Elsevier.

Read more: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12885271

[Poll_Blind]

1. Nothing against the Chinese people but this makes me very, very sad.

I don't want the U.S. to lead the world with our armies, I want the U.S. to lead the world with our ideas and innovations.

PB

[apnu]

16. Agreed. What's sad to me is Americans who have a disinterest in education and/or science. (nt)

[ck4829]

2. Don't worry, we'll just use our "intelligent design" to replace all that science

[sudopod]

3. Eh.......

"The figures are based on the papers published in recognised international journals listed by the Scopus service of the publishers Elsevier."

Elsevier? I'd have to see some citations, lol.

[Shadowflash]

4. Who needs science

When the answer to everything is 'god did it'.

China overtaking the US in the field of science!?! You've got to be kidding me.

[BadgerKid]

5. The quality might not yet be there, but considering many PhD students

of foreign countries are trained at US institutions, it's probably a matter of time.

Some professors comment that not enough US students go into research. IIRC the universities turn to student visas to fill the gap, and it pays off because the foreign governments pay to send students here.

[orwell]

8. A friend of mine...

...who is a top physicist said that if we lost the Chinese born scientists at the energy and weapons labs the programs would be severely impacted.

He said the only thing missing in many of these scientists was innovative thinking. That would only take time to change.

China and India will surpass us within the next 30 years.

[AKDavy]

6. Good on China

The U.S. is in decline, taking refuge in religion and a national political mythology, and using force where we once had moral authority (if our moral authority itself was ever more than a national mythology). Our time has passed. Cultural evolution is such that as one empire goes extinct or decays into insignificance another more fit will rise and dominate for a time. It is the Tao--The Nature of Things.

As the Old World has been to the U.S., so now will the U.S. be to an East dominated by China.

Japan is in decline along with the U.S., with three concurrent disasters added to its economic problems. Two classics examples for Jared Diamond to add to his next edition of "Collapse," so there is little in China's way.

[queenjane]

19. Sadly, I agree with you

The foreign-born PhDs and postdocs at the university where I work used to want to stay in the U.S. Now, upon completing their educations, they return to their home countries (China, India, Brazil, various European nations). Several have confided to me that the retrogressive political climate and the hostility towards science make them feel that their careers will never develop in the U.S. Even some American researchers are now investigating opportunities in other countries, especially those involved in the genetics and stem cell fields. I agree with you--this country is in serious and rapid decline.

[AKDavy]

24. And worse than that...

I've heard many boast about being "common folk." They were implying better to be bible-believing and scientifically illiterate "common folk" than Freethinking elitists with educations.

When a nation holds what is "common" in high esteem, then even mediocrity will eventually be considered high achievement.

[sarcasmo]

7. Thought they did this years ago?

[Arctic Dave]

9. You would think this would be a wake up call to the nation and it's leaders.

The strange part is we are still trying to scuttle our future as fast as possible for money, ideology and the worst reason of all, religion.

[bossy22]

10. the numbers are questionable

it depends how you calculate things. Most things i see still show the U.S. with a very healthy lead in almost all sectors

here is some info on the subject
http://researchanalytics.thomsonreuters.com/m/pdfs/globalresearchreport-usa.pdf

also i will note that graph is just a linear extrapolation...it looks like that extrapolation if extended another few years would show us fall below all the major powers- my guess is that this isnt the case and that china's rise and our decline percentage wise has leveled off

[go west young man]

14. A paragraph from the paper you linked to.

In summary, the US is no longer the Colossus of Science, dominating the research landscape in its production of scientific papers, that it was 30 years ago. It now shares this realm, on an increasingly equal basis, with the EU27 and Asia-Pacific. In terms of relative citation impact — an indicator of utility, influence, significance and similar concepts — the US still holds a commanding but eroding peak position. Europe is beginning to match US performance in citation impact, and analysts are likely to be tempted to predict that, in a decade or two, Asian nations will do so as well.

[The2ndWheel]

11. Uh oh, I guess they'll get there before we do

Winning a race with no finish line.

[melm00se]

12. let's see

you have 3 countries:

one with 300 million, one with 1.1 billion and the last one with 1.3 billion.

and assuming that only 2% of the population has the ability to earn a PhD. both of the larger countries will produce 3-4x the number of PhDs than the smaller.

shocked?

[itsrobert]

15. Agree 100 percent

or should that be 300 percent?

[Auggie]

13. Do nations still matter? Aren't we ruled by multi-national corporations now?

Excuse the sarcasm, but who really profits from the science when our innovations are nearly all manufactured overseas? Certainly not the U.S. "people," unless you're a member of the privileged class and/or oligarchy.

[freshwest]

32. You got it. We've been had.

[elleng]

17. No surprise unfortunatrely,

as 'fashions' during the last 20? years concluded that smart isn't 'smart.' We can discuss why this is, if you'd like.

[jwirr]

18. Of course they are - we are cutting R&D and education. Good going

Tbaggers and gop.

[melm00se]

22. I recently went back to school

and was forced to (re)take a couple of classes. In Physics 101, the vast majority of the kids (I am well outside the normal college age) were obviously not American students...ditto for all the TA's, Lab folks and resuscitation instructors. Flip over to social sciences (in my case history) nary a foreign student in sight (and son of a bitch, those that are there know more about American history than the American kids do).

When I mention that I am taking Physics, the response I get from the American kids is amazing: "physics is soooooooooo hard" which, to my mind at least, indicates a lack of drive, confidence and/or preparation. The foreign ones all look at it as "that's what they have to do to get where and what they want", no complaining about the workload or the homework or the reading.

This makes me wonder...why?

All I can think of is that we, collectively as a nation and individually, do not focus on the value of an education. is this a political thing? partially. Is it a cultural thing? yes. IMO, I think it's because we have had a couple of generations that have had things too easy. they want immediate gratification. if they don't get it, they wander away to find something that will give them that immediate oomph.

Is this all kids? certainly not there are ones that I see that are driven (future leaders), but there are probably 50% or so who are just going through the motions.

[lovuian]

20. this is what happens when you dumb down a population

your country is not top notch

our universities have taught them well

their school system for their population is so different here

Good math teachers

[onehandle]

21. China To Overtake U.S. On EVERYTHING.

There will be only one superpower in a few decades.

[RedCloud]

23. Just like we lost our 25-35 years of life cars to planned obsolescence.

[freshwest]

25. No surprise there.

[Juche]

26. This is a good thing

More scientists and engineers means more R&D into solving the world's biggest problems. Chinese scientists are working on vaccines for HIV and alzheimer's, among other things. So that could benefit us down the road.

Plus China overtaking the west could lead to more investment in science in the west to catch up, which would be nice.

Science isn't zero sum IMO. China having more science could give them an edge in more important industries in the future. But their economic tricks (like cornering the rare earth market as an example, or by forcing private companies to share R&D with the gov) are also important to their success. But by and large the advances should be shared globally, and more scientists means more advances.

In the US science is largely a dead end career. With a bachelors or masters you might end up in a temp job with no benefits. With a PhD you are overqualified. Academia is hard to break into, and post-docs and grad school generally pay less per hour than wal-mart.

Unless you want to make a hypercompetitive field your life to the point where you have trouble starting a family, science isn't a good one to get into. At the higher levels it is very type A and oversaturated, at lower levels it is dead end jobs and oversaturated.

Realistically, how could the US not decline in science? We are becoming more and more of a superstitious nation that openly promotes ignorance, and we have made careers in science very unappealing. What was supposed to happen? Now that more of the foreign born grad students go home instead of stay here after their education is done, it is going to get worse.

[andym]

27. GOP wants to cut US science budget at least 10%

Since anything useful will be done by private enterprise anyway according to them. Of course private enterprise can't possibly afford the US science budget:http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/02/first-glance-at.html and http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd/ $148 billion for research and development targeting a broad range of new discoveries that would not be pursued otherwise. Nor would stockholders of major companies allow it.

Interesting that private enterprise is also cutting their R and D spending http://viodi.com/wordpress/2011/02/27/can-u-s-reverse-the-decline-in-rd-spending-global-competitiveness-at-risk/ To be fair private enterprise has a 500 billion dollar R and D budget, but note that this spending is far more targeted to short-term goals.

So when Chinese companies directly benefit from Chinese research, what will happen to American innovation and leadership in technology? What will happen to America at that point? Less people, inferior science and technology, less industrial capacity. What industries will lead America, banking and real estate?????? Seems the GOP ideology will lead America into the abyss.

[WatsonT]

30. We could cut far more than 10% and still be far ahead of China in education spending

Not to mention that they focus exclusively on rote memorization, the kind of education often condemned here.

They're reaching parity with us, this isn't surprising. They're just joining the modern world. And with 4 times our population shouldn't they be producing more than we are, rather than fighting to break even?

This isn't so much us sliding as them moving up in the world.

[Bigmack]

28. What do we expect...?

More Murikans believe in fucking angels than believe in evolution or global warming.

- - - -
According to the Gallup Youth Survey, in a Teen Belief in the Supernatural poll in 1994, 76% of 508 teenagers (aged 13–17) believe in angels, a greater percentage than those whom believed in astrology, ESP, ghosts, witchcraft, clairvoyance, Bigfoot, and vampires. In 1978, 64% of American young people believed in angels; in 1984, 69% of teenagers believed in angels; and by 1994, that number grew to 76%, while belief in other supernatural concepts, such as the Loch Ness monster and ESP, have declined. In 1992, 80% of 502 surveyed teenage girls believe in angels, and 81% of Catholic teens and 82% of regular church attendees harbored beliefs in angels. According to another set of Gallup polls, designated towards all Americans, in 1994, 72% of Americans said they believed in angels, while in 2004, 78% of the surveyed Americans indicated belief in angels, with the percentage of Americans that did not believe in angels dropping from 15% to 10%, and the percentage of Americans that were "not sure" dropping from 13% to 11%.

[WatsonT]

29. So with only 4 times our population they're set to equal us in publications?

No word on the impact factor of those papers either.

[ronnie624]

31. China overtook the US in publications in 2004.

Citations is where it lags, but is gaining there, as well.