U.S. Gasoline Weekly Draw Biggest Since Oct '98: EIA

[Purveyor]

Source: REUTERS

NEW YORK | Wed Apr 13, 2011 11:07am EDT

(Reuters) - U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 7.0 million barrels to 209.68 million barrels last week, much more than expected and marking the biggest weekly drop in 12-1/2 12 years, the government said on Wednesday.

The drawdown was the heftiest since the week to October 9, 1998, when gasoline supplies fell by 7.6 million barrels to 199,486 million barrels, U.S. Energy Information Agency data showed.

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Also of note from another source:

Oil refinery inputs averaged 14.0 million barrels per day during the week, which were 354,000 barrels per day below the previous week's average as refineries operated at 81.40 percent of their operable capacity.

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http://www.rttnews.com/Content/Commodities.aspx?Id=1597283&SM=1

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/13/us-markets-energy-eia-gasoline-idUSTRE73C4CB20110413

[Demeter]

1. Probably shipped it to Japan

or Libya for those boots that aren't on the ground...

[Purveyor]

2. I would be interested in knowing why the refineries are only operating at 81% capacity. eom

[Demeter]

5. Summer Changeover, Doncha know?

Gotta get the price up to $5 for Memorial Day....and maintenance, can't for get that old chestnut of an excuse.

The number of refineries in this country has been dropping steadily, as the Oil Bidness would rather crack petroleum in less environmentally fussy nations and ship it here.

[happyslug]

8. Could it be the drop in Light/Sweet Crude production?

Over the last few years, refineries capable of handling Light/Sweet Crude had DROPPED 287 Million barrels per day, while Sour/Heavy capability has increased by 1968 Million barrels per day. This reflects the continuing drop in access to Light/Sweet (Libyan oil is Light/Sweet) while the increased oil production has been almost all Heavy/Sour oil (Saudi Arabian and Venezuelan oil). Thus those refineries only capable of refining Sweet/Light oil do not have access to any oil they can handle

Paper that shows the above increase and decrease in oil refinery capacity:
http://www.nyenergyforum.org/app/filemgmt_data/files/Malcolm%20Turner.pdf

Now, the big fields in Arabia are Light/Sweet, but it appears we are NOT seeing any increase in production of those wells (In fact it appears to be a drop in production). The only increase has been in Heavy/Sour oil from Arabia.

Another factor can be normal off line for normal maintenance. Off line about 20% of the time is normal for many forms of production. I can NOT find any numbers (I only did a quick check) how much a refinery is all line, but 20% sounds about right.

According to the Energy Information Agency (EIA), the highest capacity was 97.8% in 1952, In 1998 it returned to 95.6%, but has ranged from 92-82% since that date (2009, the latest year for the EIA was the 82% number).

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0509.html

Please note, since the 1980s, Kuwait and other Persian Gulf nations have embraced refining their own oil, thus the problem may NOT be at the US refineries, but in the production of oil. You can not refine oil that does not exist and the Persian Gulf nations may be sending all of their production to their refineries, thus the US refineries must depend on any excess (and the oil produced in the US, Mexico and Venezuela).

[Yo_Mama]

10. Because demand is dropping!!!

Seriously. We never got refinery utilization back to the pre-recession high, and although utilization improved last year, demand in the US appears to be dropping.

[Corruption Winz]

3. Doesn't sound good.... n/t

[nradisic]

4. Spring Break...that's it...

I am down in South Carolina for Spring Break with the family....airfares are ridiculous, so driving from NJ to Hilton Head was a much better deal for a family of five, plus we can bring golf clubs, fishing rods, bikes and not have to pay for a rental car either....lots of other families on the road with us for the same reason. The draw down is temporary. Once Spring Break is over in a week or two, its over until gas goes down. I don't see anyone driving long distances unless necessary or a better deal than flying.

[groundloop]

6. Maybe, just maybe, people will wake up and start conserving

But I doubt it. I'm of the opinion that the last time gas prices hit $4 per gallon was a bit of an "innoculation" to get us ready for permanent prices that high. If we had any sense at all we'd be conserving like hell, but I'm not seeing that. We all just bitch about the high price of gas and then go on about our business just the same as always.

[Blue_Tires]

7. No chance...Only two things unite all Americans from the entire politcal spectrum:

1. Football
2. Our God-given constitutional right to cheap gas....

[Yo_Mama]

9. Well it's not because we're using more

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

I've been watching the four-week average YoY drop for weeks:
Current:

Over the last
four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied has averaged nearly 9.0 million barrels per
day, down by 1.6 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied
has averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 1.4 percent from
the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is 1.6 percent lower over the last four
weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

Refinery margins have been low so it would not be surprising for refineries to cut production.

Even diesel is losing its YoY edge now.

You can get all the reports at this link:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/wpsr_historical.html

March 16th:

Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline
product supplied has averaged about 9.1 million barrels per
day, up by 1.4 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel
product supplied has averaged about 3.9 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, up by 3.8 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel
product supplied is 4.5 percent higher over the last four weeks compared
to the same four-week period last year.

Feb 16th

Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline products supplied
has averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, remaining virtually unchanged
from the same period last year. Distillate fuel products supplied has
averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 2.7
percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel products supplied is 1.4
percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week
period last year.

Jan 20th

Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has
averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, up by 2.0 percent from the same
period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.7 million barrels
per day over the last four weeks, up by 1.8 percent from the same period
last year. Jet fuel demand is 4.6 percent higher over the last four weeks
compared to the same four-week period last year.

When diesel goes negative YoY consistently, US is in recession. When gas goes negative YoY consistently, US is close to recession.

Funny how NBER never caught on to that little trick.

[JDPriestly]

13. I don't need to look at statistics to see that the LA freeways

are not as crowded as they were even a few weeks ago.

And the commuter trains are packed compared to the past.

[paparush]

11. Heard yesterday on NPR that consumption is down due to constantly rising prices. nt

[Yo_Mama]

12. It is