NDP trail Tories by just three points, new poll finds

[arikara]

Source: National Post

Conservative leader Stephen Harper no longer enjoys a comfortable lead ahead of the surging NDP, as a new poll shows the left-leaning party swelling to within just a few points of the reigning Tories.

According to the latest Forum Research poll, Jack Layton’s party enjoys the support of 31% of those surveyed — only three points behind the governing Conservatives, who fell to 34% from the 36% support the party gleaned as of April 21. The Liberals, having been reduced to third place in a slew of recent polls, dwindled to 22% in this latest survey, while the Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged at 6%.

If these numbers are reflected on polling day, the NDP could grow from 37 to 108 seats in the House of Commons, forming the official opposition in a Parliament that would host 137 Tory MPs, 60 Liberals, and just 3 Bloc representatives. The poll, based on a telephone survey of 3,150 randomly selected eligible voters across the country, was conducted on Tuesday.

Read more: http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/04/27/ndp-trail-tories-by-just-three-points-new-poll-finds/

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This is so exciting for us in Canada!

[Pab Sungenis]

1. But the polls I've seen still have them losing by 60 seats.

150 for the Fascists (they are NOT the old Tories), 90 for the NDP, 30-some for the Liberals, and the rest scattered.

Can the NDP's momentum put enough other seats into contention to keep Harper from a majority, and make a case for a left coalition?

[CHIMO]

3. Have

A look here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=190x32831

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

2. I'm not sure how another Harper minority and more dysfunctional opposition is a positive outcome

Although the death of separatist Quebec nationalism will be an explosive change to the political scene.

[CHIMO]

4. A Lot

Of government work goes on in committees. Committees are populated by the parliament representations.

If Parliament looses confidence in the governing party then it most likely fall to the next group to see if they can gain the confidence of parliament and become the executive.

And separatism is not dead.

[Ramulux]

5. So incredibly jealous

If the NDP can keep this up and show results on election night it would send a message to the rest of the world about the viability of 3rd party candidates.

[Keith Bee]

6. Couldn't they do a Cameron-Clegg?

108+60=168. That would make a majority, right?

[whoneedstickets]

7. Yes, the conservative get first crack at forming a government..

..if they have the most seats. However, if they can't muster a majority the Governor General can approach the second largest party to ask if they have the power to form a majority. If they can they take the government.

Of course the liberals have to go along. There is some doubt about that.

If no one can claim a majority coalition, the largest party takes the government in a governing minority position.

[CHIMO]

8. The

Party with the most seats gets the first crack at things. Especially since in this case they were the previous government.

They then have to give the speech from the throne. Which summarizes what they intend to do during this session.

If they are voted down, they don't gain the confidence of the house then they have to request the GG to solve the problem. In this case they would probably want another election. Then the GG would take this into consideration and most likely ask the opposition if they could govern. If they say yes then they would be given a chance. Another vote of confidence happens on the budget.

In all this one has to consider money. Party financing is limited to a maximum of $1,000/yr per contributor. So no party wants to enter another election.