Poll shows Bush leads Sen. Kerry in Oregon

[central scrutinizer]

http://www.dailyemerald.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2004/04/15/407eb6a452caf

The local fishwrap doesn't put their current edition online until noon PDT, but this from the University of Oregon campus newspaper is basically the same story. I will post the other link after noon.

excerpt:

A recently released University survey shows President George W. Bush has a narrow edge over Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in Oregon.
The survey of 444 registered Oregon voters, conducted between March 19 and April 7, shows Bush leading Kerry 47 percent to 45 percent, according to a University press release. The results are within the poll's margin of error of 4.7 percent.

......

The survey also found that 1 percent of Oregonians supported independent candidate Ralph Nader and 6 percent were undecided. Bloom compared the recent survey to a March 4 poll conducted by The Oregonian, which had Kerry leading Bush 45 percent to 40 percent.

end excerpt.

At this time four years ago, Nader was pulling around 7% (he ended with 5%)

[Trajan]

1. This was posted yesterday ...

Note the incredibly small sample size ...

I could poll a restaurant and get a larger sample ...

Dont drink the Koolaid ....

[unblock]

2. note the unusually small sample size

444 is less than half of the usual size. the margin of error is 4.7% here, the usual is around 3.0%.

[Not Me]

5. Sample size/margin of error

The margin of error is directly related to the (small) sample size. What is misleading is that the article should call it a dead heat, since the MOE is so wide.

[qb]

3. What do you expect when the options are:

A. Heroic War President
B. Traitorous War Protester
C. Leftist Goofball

I'm being facetious, but they didn't say how the question was phrased.

[onehandle]

4. dupe...small sample....it's only april....yawn....etc.

[0rganism]

6. Screw Oregon, win Ohio instead

Let the bushistas waste their ad money on this pissant 7-ev state -- which they've been doing in spades, over the last month or so. Maybe they'll get lucky and eke out a victory here for the first time in decades? Big deal. As long as Kerry takes back Ohio, I'm quite happy.

Also, note that the gay marriage thing has mobilized a lot of the latent rightwingers statewide, so there's a chance the poll is picking up on that trend.

[Skip Intro]

7. Between Mar. 19 and Apr. 7 -

This poll ended just as the chaos in Iraq had hit headlines, and before condi lied to the 9*11 commission and before the Aug.6, 2001 PDB was released and before mr. staythecourseonthebloodyinvasionIliedtostartandifIhadknownplanesweregoingtobeusedIwoulda- butIdidn'tandbesidesInevermakeamistakes fell flat on his face before the nation, right?

[lancdem]

10. And the early part of the poll was done when Kerry

was struggling on the defensive a bit. We should keep in mind Gore won the state by 7,000 votes in 2000, and any state where Kerry is statistically tied is one he'll almost certainly win because the undecideds will break mostly against the incumbent.

[peterh]

8. They must’ve polled all my siblings up there….

All repugs….love them dearly, but when they limit themselves to just the Oregonian…well, ‘nuff said….

[phatkatt]

9. They must have polled the local yacht club

I'd be stunned if Oregon went to *.

[dawn]

11. I'd be extremely surprised if * won Oregon.

Most of the population is in the Portland area, and there's not too many Repukes up there.

[0rganism]

15. You would be surprised

Even good ol' Multnomah county, where I live, is getting a lot less progressive. The population is swinging out to the 'burbs, where the people are trending anti-tax uber alles. Also, among the remaining progressives, there's a substantial contingent who will vote for Nader. I'm hoping against hope that Dennis Kucinich can win back a lot of the die-hards with a classic liberal message, and then rotate them to Kerry.

Don't underestimate the potential for the gay marriages to mobilize the rightwing zealotry. Hell, a thousand clergymen attended a recent convention to discuss how best to attack gay marriage, and each one of them is going back to a congregation. Oregon may well turn out to be a loser -- and at 7 ev, Kerry can afford to skip us for now. Ohio and Pennsylvania are much more important.

[callous taoboy]

17. Yep, Texas

is anti-tax ville, and our dumbass governor is pushing for allowing anyone with a bachelors degree teach, even if the person has had no teacher training or education coursework. What a frickin' slap in the face for all of us who have had years of coursework and teacher prep prior to teaching.

[DrWeird]

12. Gore only beat Bush by some 6500 votes in Oregon.

It could go either way.

[Arugula Latte]

16. I think the Nader vote will be much less than the 5% it was last time

Still, it makes me want to vomit that a poll would show a close race here. Everybody I know here HATES Bush, but then, I tend to only hang around with progressives.

I'm hoping Portland, Eugene and the cool coastal pockets will swamp the rural vote and that the suburbs will break for Kerry.

[GregW]

13. I was at UO on Tuesday at a board meeting ...

... and I sure as hell didn't see many repukes up there!

Go Ducks!

[central scrutinizer]

14. further link from city paper

http://www.registerguard.com/news/2004/04/15/d1.cr.bushpoll.0415.html

<>

[hyphenate]

18. If I recall

Isn't Oregon one of the states where Nader didn't get onto the ballot? I don't see too many people doing a write-in for him, either. Those 5% or so will (hopefully) end up in Kerry's camp.