STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, July 19, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday July 19, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 18, 2011

Dow 12,385.16 -94.57 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,765.11 -24.69 (-0.89%)
S&P 500 1,305.44 -10.70 (-0.82%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.92 -0.01 (-0.48%)
30-Year Bond 4.30 -0.01 (-0.30%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

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http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/n6j_ob.VzWwNTJrd1Bla0A--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9Zml0O3E9ODU7dz05NTA-/

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Jul 19 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 570K 570K 560K
Jul 19 08:30 Building Permits Jun 600K 609K 609K 612K

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/#ixzz1SXfudTdf

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil above $96 as US crude supply drop expected

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $96 a barrel Tuesday in Asia amid expectations U.S. crude supplies dropped last week, a sign demand may be improving.

Benchmark oil for August delivery was up 66 cents to $96.59 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude fell $1.31 to settle at $95.93 on Monday.

In London, the September contract for Brent crude rose 17 cents to $116.22 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Crude inventories likely fell 1.3 million barrels last week while gasoline supplies probably dropped 450,000 barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[tclambert]

3. News Corp. stock is down about 16% from its highs a few weeks ago.

That's Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (ticker symbol: NWSA), former owner of the now defunct News of The World, the paper brought down by the phone hacking scandal. Fox "News" also belongs to News Corp., as well as the Wall Street Journal.

Murdoch is due to appear before Parliament. If he lies in testimony to them, he could be thrown into the Tower of London. Can you plead the Fifth Amendment in Great Britain?

[xchrom]

4. I think bringing back the Tower would be a good idea for him. Nt

[Demeter]

25. The Tower Hasn't Gone Anywhere

but a modern prison would be so much more....humiliating, doncha know? No sense of history.

[xchrom]

35. you're right -- he would -- w/ his over inflated sense of self importance --

get the wrong idea if he was thrown into the Tower.

[Ghost Dog]

60. Even more hubris, you mean?

I pointed out here in Spain, recently, that the Tower of London has been there for quite a long time, in 'modern' post-enlightenment European terms. Since even before al-Ándalus, for example.

You are listening to the Murdochs in Parliamentary Committee here, right?: http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=8910

[xchrom]

61. indeed i am. nt

[tclambert]

5. News Corp., Murdoch Family Are Sued by (Share)Holder for Damage Caused by Hacking

News Corp. (NWSA) Chairman Rupert Murdoch and his sons Lachlan and James were sued in Manhattan federal court by a shareholder who says the phone-hacking scandal damaged the company and who described their actions as “damning.”

Gregory Shields, a News Corp. shareholder from California, alleges Murdoch and the other defendants breached their fiduciary duties by their actions, engaged in “gross mismanagement” of News Corp. and wasted corporate assets.

Shields’s case is a derivative suit, a claim filed on behalf of the company to enforce legal rights the company’s officers and directors have allegedly failed to assert.

more at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-18/news-corp-murdoch-family-are-sued-by-holder-for-damage-caused-by-hacking.html
________________________________________

I'm still hoping for criminal charges. Some rumors say bribery charges may arise in Britain, due to the involvement of Scotland Yard officials.

[Tansy_Gold]

51. I think I'll buy stock in

Jolly Time. "Ultimate Theatre" indeed!

[xchrom]

6. a good summer's morning!

:donut:

[xchrom]

7. Murdoch, Moody's and Mandelbrot

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/MG20Dj01.html

Over the past few weeks, a number of events have rolled and rollicked the media sphere. Some of them relate to markets, and yet others to the world of media (as in, journalists becoming the news rather than simply reporting on it) and lastly even to wars. All through though there is a common theme - one involving otherwise-knowledgeable and experienced people quite simply falling into the kinds of traps that would have been unimaginable barely a few weeks or months ago.

Look at the following events, all hailing from the past few weeks:
# The tumult at News Corporation, a large media conglomerate overseen and managed by the redoubtable Rupert Murdoch that is now facing unheard-of conniptions in both the UK and the US on the heels of a ill-managed media scandal (Credibility).
# Moody's downgraded both Portugal and Ireland by multiple notches into speculative grade territory (ie the bonds are no longer


eligible for many investors) on fears that the countries would find it hard to refinance themselves in the markets (Confidence).
# A decision by 30 countries led by Italy to recognize a rebel alliance as the official government of Libya, as the march towards Tripoli appeared unhindered with the Muammar Gaddafi forces seemingly in disarray both on and off the battlefield (Conflict).

For all the major actors in the dramas above - Murdoch, European Union politicians and Colonel Gaddafi - the key question is whether the events may have been predictable and/or controllable but for the apparent avalanche of events towards the close?

[xchrom]

8. asia: Clean goal for new exchange

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MG20Ae01.html

BANGKOK - Besides attracting international investors, Cambodia's new stock exchange is expected to nudge this Southeast Asian country towards greater transparency. When the Cambodia Securities Exchange (CSX) was officially launched on July 11 there were no companies listed because of a drive to ensure that everything was above board.

"We want to assure full transparency," says Huot Pum, the deputy director general of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Cambodia. "Financial information has to be audited and disclosed regularly."

"Companies listed on the stock exchange have to live up to international standards," Pum told Inter Press Service (IPS) during


an interview in his Phnom Penh office. "The stock exchange is a good way of ensuring sound corporate governance. It could help set the tone for a better corporate culture."

Trading is expected to begin later this year once the three state-owned firms that have announced plans to list on the CSX have met "international auditing standards." The companies are Telecom Cambodia, the Phnom Penh Water Supply Authority and Sihanoukville Autonomous Ports.

[xchrom]

12. Asian ministers discuss South China Sea, security

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_ASIA_SUMMIT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-07-19-07-07-14

BALI, Indonesia (AP) -- Territorial disputes and flare-ups in the South China Sea were expected to take center stage at Asia's largest security forum this week, after Vietnam and the Philippines accused China of interfering in efforts to explore for oil and gas.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono noted ahead of closed-door talks that it's been nine years since the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China agreed to negotiate a code of conduct in the potentially resource-rich waterway.

"Things do not necessarily have to be this slow," he said, adding "some progress" was long-overdue.

He said ASEAN needed to signal strongly to the world that the situation in the sea, a strategical shipping lane, is "predictable" and "manageable."

[xchrom]

62. Most Asian Stocks Slide, Led by Exporters, Banks, on U.S., Europe Concerns

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-19/most-asian-stocks-decline-on-u-s-debt-limit-europe-crisis-honda-falls.html

Most Asian stocks fell amid concern U.S. lawmakers will fail to reach a deal on the country’s debt limit and Europe’s worsening sovereign-debt crisis will slow the global economic recovery.

Honda Motor Co., the automaker which receives 44 percent of its sales from North America, declined 2 percent in Tokyo. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), the country’s biggest listed lender by market value, sank 2.5 percent as banks fell globally after stress tests on European lenders failed to alleviate investor concern over the region’s debt crisis. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd. (YZJ), China’s third-largest shipyard outside state control, jumped 7.3 percent in Singapore after predicting higher first half profit.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 135.1 as of 7:42 p.m. in Tokyo after swinging between gains and losses at least eight times. About five stocks fell for every four that rose on the gauge. The measure dropped for the first week in four last week after European finance ministers declined to rule out a temporary default for Greece and as Moody’s Investors Service put the U.S. under review for a possible credit-rating downgrade.

[Festivito]

9. Debt: 07/14/2011 14,342,953,885,641.98 (DOWN 748,274.43) (Thu, DOWN some.)

(OVER the old debt limit of 14.294-trillion dollars by 49-billion dollars. Good day.)
Oh, lots of sleep to make up for the week.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,750,503,934,099.81 + 4,592,449,951,542.17
DOWN 1,516,331,672.50 + UP 1,515,583,398.07

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 312-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,200.56 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,444,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,905.53.
A family of three owes $137,716.6. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is -81,233,554.50.
The average for the last 30 days would be -54,155,703.00.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 194 reports in 287 days of FY2011 averaging 4.03B$ per report, 2.72B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 556 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/14/2011 14,342,953,885,641.98 BHO (UP 3,716,076,836,728.90 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,781,330,854,750.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +0,993,678,613,184.05 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/21/2011 -005,323,373,908.56 --
06/22/2011 +008,838,427,845.80 ------------*********
06/23/2011 -003,583,724,883.29 --
06/24/2011 +001,084,698,810.36 ------------*********
06/27/2011 -002,470,523,317.36 -- Mon
06/28/2011 -005,425,153,798.63 --
06/29/2011 +007,017,747,779.06 ------------*********
06/30/2011 +003,977,538,029.63 ------------*********
07/06/2011 +006,618,560,773.63 ------------********* Wed
07/07/2011 +001,077,509,146.64 ------------*********
07/08/2011 -000,834,469,945.40 ---
07/11/2011 -004,122,303,723.36 -- Mon
07/12/2011 -003,634,448,925.47 --
07/13/2011 +010,692,053,599.69 ------------**********
07/14/2011 -001,516,331,672.50 --

12,396,205,810.24 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4921247&mesg_id=4921716

[Festivito]

73. Debt: 07/15/2011 14,342,942,873,692.85 (DOWN 11,011,949.13) (Fri, UP some.)

(OVER the old debt limit of 14.294-trillion dollars by 49-billion dollars. Good day.)
I missed a day again.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,753,604,438,381.32 + 4,589,338,435,311.53
UP 3,100,504,281.51 + DOWN 3,111,516,230.64

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 312-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,200.49 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,452,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,904.44.
A family of three owes $137,713.32. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is -81,188,156.67.
The average for the last 30 days would be -54,125,437.78.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 195 reports in 288 days of FY2011 averaging 4.01B$ per report, 2.71B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 555 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/15/2011 14,342,942,873,692.85 BHO (UP 3,716,065,824,779.77 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,781,319,842,801.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +0,990,214,384,105.56 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/22/2011 +008,838,427,845.80 ------------*********
06/23/2011 -003,583,724,883.29 --
06/24/2011 +001,084,698,810.36 ------------*********
06/27/2011 -002,470,523,317.36 -- Mon
06/28/2011 -005,425,153,798.63 --
06/29/2011 +007,017,747,779.06 ------------*********
06/30/2011 +003,977,538,029.63 ------------*********
07/06/2011 +006,618,560,773.63 ------------********* Wed
07/07/2011 +001,077,509,146.64 ------------*********
07/08/2011 -000,834,469,945.40 ---
07/11/2011 -004,122,303,723.36 -- Mon
07/12/2011 -003,634,448,925.47 --
07/13/2011 +010,692,053,599.69 ------------**********
07/14/2011 -001,516,331,672.50 --
07/15/2011 +003,100,504,281.51 ------------*********

20,820,084,000.31 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4926329&mesg_id=4926379

[Festivito]

74. Debt: 07/18/2011 14,342,909,569,328.74 (DOWN 33,304,364.11) (Mon, UP a little.)

(OVER the old debt limit of 14.294-trillion dollars by 49-billion dollars. Good day.)
Oh well, one day did get lost and it is too hot to look for it.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,753,843,228,975.15 + 4,589,066,340,353.59
UP 238,790,593.83 + DOWN 272,094,957.94

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 312-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,200.27 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,473,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,901.16.
A family of three owes $137,703.48. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 19 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 19 reports is -86,839,084.01.
The average for the last 30 days would be -54,998,086.54.
The average for the last 31 days would be -53,223,954.72.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 196 reports in 291 days of FY2011 averaging 3.99B$ per report, 2.68B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 552 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/18/2011 14,342,909,569,328.74 BHO (UP 3,716,032,520,415.66 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,781,286,538,437.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +0,979,964,214,878.02 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/23/2011 -003,583,724,883.29 --
06/24/2011 +001,084,698,810.36 ------------*********
06/27/2011 -002,470,523,317.36 -- Mon
06/28/2011 -005,425,153,798.63 --
06/29/2011 +007,017,747,779.06 ------------*********
06/30/2011 +003,977,538,029.63 ------------*********
07/06/2011 +006,618,560,773.63 ------------********* Wed
07/07/2011 +001,077,509,146.64 ------------*********
07/08/2011 -000,834,469,945.40 ---
07/11/2011 -004,122,303,723.36 -- Mon
07/12/2011 -003,634,448,925.47 --
07/13/2011 +010,692,053,599.69 ------------**********
07/14/2011 -001,516,331,672.50 --
07/15/2011 +003,100,504,281.51 ------------*********
07/18/2011 +000,238,790,593.83 ------------******** Mon

12,220,446,748.34 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4926329&mesg_id=4926379

[xchrom]

10. UnitedHealth's 2Q profit climbs 13 percent

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_EARNS_UNITEDHEALTH?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-07-19-06-53-02

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) -- UnitedHealth Group Inc. said Tuesday its second-quarter earnings rose 13 percent, as enrollment gains helped fuel revenue growth in several categories and consumers continued to moderate their health system use.

The Minnetonka, Minn., company earned $1.27 billion, or $1.16 per share, in the three months that ended June 30. That's up from $1.12 billion, or 99 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue rose 8 percent to $25.23 billion.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast earnings of 91 cents per share on $25.22 billion in revenue.

UnitedHealth also hiked its 2011 profit forecast by 20 cents per share. It now expects earnings of $4.15 to $4.25 per share, up from its forecast in April for earnings of $3.95 to $4.05 per share. It expects $101 billion in revenue.

[Demeter]

27. "consumers continued to moderate their health system use".

Newspeak in the making.

[xchrom]

36. i was wondering if anybody would catch that. nt

[tclambert]

52. Does that mean they are opting to die cheaply?

I'm amazed insurance companies don't offer a discount for those willing to take the "Kevorkian option."

[xchrom]

11. BofA reports $9.1 bln loss in 2Q on settlement

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_EARNS_BANK_OF_AMERICA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-07-19-07-21-21

NEW YORK (AP) -- Bank of America reported a loss of $9.1billion during the second quarter partly due to the $8.5 billion settlement with investors who claimed the bank had sold them poor-quality mortgage backed bonds. That settlement was announced in June.

The reported loss available to common shareholders was 90 cents per share.

Excluding charges related to investor settlements, Bank of America Corp. earned $3.7 billion, or 33 cents per share. That compares with net income of $3.1 billion, or 27 cents a share in the same quarter last year.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast Bank of America would report a loss of 85 cents per share.

[xchrom]

13. AP analysis: Western states lag in recovery

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_STRESS_MAP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-07-19-06-28-22

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Western states hit hardest by the housing crisis are feeling the greatest economic stress two years after the recession ended, according to The Associated Press's monthly analysis.

Depressed home prices and high rates of foreclosures have limited job growth in Arizona, California and Nevada. Meanwhile, a delayed housing bust and cuts in state government and construction jobs have led to rising unemployment in Idaho, Montana and Utah since the recession ended.

The easing of stress over the past two years was most felt in Midwestern states that have seen growth in manufacturing jobs, such as Indiana and Michigan. However, those states experienced a monthly jump in stress in May because many counties there were adversely affected by supply chain disruptions caused by the Japan crises.

The AP's Stress index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. A higher score signifies more economic stress. Under a rough rule of thumb, a county is considered stressed when its score exceeds 11. By that standard, about a quarter of the nation's 3,141 counties were stressed in May, roughly the same as in April.

[xchrom]

14. AP Exclusive: Mortgage 'robo-signing' goes on

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MORTGAGES_ROBO_SIGNING?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-07-19-06-25-07

Mortgage industry employees are still signing documents they haven't read and using fake signatures more than eight months after big banks and mortgage companies promised to stop the illegal practices that led to a nationwide halt of home foreclosures.

County officials in at least three states say they have received thousands of mortgage documents with questionable signatures since last fall, suggesting that the practices, known collectively as "robo-signing," remain widespread in the industry.

The documents have come from several companies that process mortgage paperwork, and have been filed on behalf of several major banks. One name, "Linda Green," was signed almost two dozen different ways.

Lenders say they are working with regulators to fix the problem but cannot explain why it has persisted.



Salem, Mass. Registrar of Deeds John O'Brien stands near copies of robo-signed signatures at his office, in Salem, Monday, July 18, 2011. O'Brien said an investigation of more than 710,000 documents in his office found that 25,187 homeowners in the county, or about 3.5 percent, have paperwork on file with signatures he believes are fraudulent. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

[Demeter]

29. Robosigning Persists Because NO ONE HAS GONE TO JAIL!

Get a clue! (not you, xchrom)

[xchrom]

33. oh hey -- i need a clue -- just not that clue.

:hi:

[Demeter]

41. Quelle Surprise! The Banks Lied and Robosigning Lives!

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/07/quelle-surprise-the-banks-lied-and-robosigning-lives.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

YVES EXPLAINS IT ALL

[xchrom]

44. +1

[tclambert]

53. Colonel Mustard in the Conservatory with the ______

[xchrom]

54. i always pick the candle stick

:spray:

[tclambert]

66. We need background checks for candle stick buyers.

[xchrom]

69. ...

:evilgrin:

[plumbob]

49. Yeah, there IS that.

Until they personally suffer, banksters will never stop their dirty deeds.

[xchrom]

15. europe: Interest rates soar in Spanish bond auction

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_SPAIN_FINANCIAL_CRISIS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-07-19-06-14-06

MADRID (AP) -- Spain paid sharply higher interest rates in two short-term debt auctions Tuesday as tensions over Europe's debt crisis remained acute ahead of a summit of EU leaders.

The Treasury sold euro3.9 billion ($5.5 billion) in 12-month bills with the average interest rate jumping to 3.7 percent from 2.7 percent in the last such auction June 14.

The Treasury also auctioned euro660 million in 18-month bills at a rate of 3.9 percent, up from 3.3 percent in June.

The 12-month sale was two-times oversubscribed while demand was 5.5 times the amount offered for the 18-month bills.

[xchrom]

16. Novartis says Q2 net profit up 12 percent to $2.7B

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_SWITZERLAND_EARNS_NOVARTIS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-07-19-07-42-08

GENEVA (AP) -- Swiss drug maker Novartis AG saw net profits rise 12 percent to $2.73 billion in the second quarter amid strong sales of new products and healthy growth in emerging markets such as China.

Still, the strength of the Swiss franc weakened bottom-line results and chief executive Joseph Jimenez said he would look at ways to reduce the company's costs in Switzerland, where it has a large workforce but only 1.5 percent of global sales.

"When the Swiss franc appreciates against the dollar we have the benefit on the sales side but we get a hit on the cost side," Jimenez said. The American-born CEO said he was aiming to "reduce the total cost that we have in Swiss francs. I wouldn't want to speculate whether that meant jobs or meant anything else."

Analysts noted that the company's generics drugs division Sandoz and eyecare unit Alcon contributed to a strong operating result. Novartis' core net profit, which excludes exceptional one-off costs, rose to $3.56 billion from $2.77 billion in the second quarter of 2010.

[xchrom]

17. Spanish firms to build high-speed train to Mecca

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/Spanish/firms/to/build/high-speed/train/to/Mecca/elpepueng/20110718elpeng_1/Ten

A Spanish consortium won a lucrative contract to build an AVE rail network in Saudi Arabia to connect the city of Medina and the Muslim pilgrimage site of Mecca, according to sources with knowledge of the bid.

The cost of the project is estimated at 6.5 billion euros with 12 Spanish firms, including Adif, Talgo and Renfe, taking part in the construction, the sources said. The consortium, which is 88 percent Spanish and 12 percent Saudi, beat out competitors from China, South Korea, Germany and France.


Prototype of the train that the Spanish consortium presented to Saudi authorities.-

[xchrom]

18. PP insinuates government not coming clean on finances

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/PP/insinuates/government/not/coming/clean/on/finances/elpepueng/20110718elpeng_15/Ten

Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was fending off flak from a number of different fronts on Monday as an EL PAÍS editorial urged him to stand down and call early elections, and the opposition Popular Party spokesman on the economy questioned the veracity of the administration's financial accounts.

In an interview with radio station Cadena SER, Cristóbal Montoro said it is possible that if the PP wins the next general elections it will find drawers full of "unpaid bills, as has happened in the regions."

Montoro was referring to claims earlier this month by Castilla-La Mancha regional premier and PP secretary general Dolores de Cospedal that the outgoing Socialist government had left a much bigger budget deficit than it had officially maintained, with unpaid bills amounting to 1.742 billion euros, up from 700 million euros at the end of April. The PP won power in the region in May elections.

"We're already used to surprises," Montoro said. The PP official's basis for his claims stems from complaints by suppliers to the government about delays in payments. He attributed the financial problems facing the regions to a lack of control by the central government. "The boss is not there," he said.

[xchrom]

28. Deutsche Bank, SocGen, RBS Face Pressure to Boost Funds After Stress Tests

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-18/deutsche-bank-socgen-rbs-face-pressure-to-boost-funds-after-stress-tests.html

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS), Societe Generale SA and UniCredit SpA (UCG) may face pressure from investors to boost capital after scraping through Europe’s banking stress tests.

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, had a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 6.5 percent under the test’s adverse scenario. While that surpassed the 5 percent fail rate, it ranked eighth among the 12 German banks that participated and 57th overall among the 90 banks tested. Edinburgh-based RBS had a ratio of 6.3 percent, Societe Generale of Paris 6.6 percent and Milan- based UniCredit 6.7 percent.

The European Banking Authority’s tests, which gave a passing grade to all but eight participants, have been criticized for not including the impact of a potential Greek sovereign default, even though credit default swaps indicate investors see an almost 90 percent chance one will occur. Bond yields jumped to a euro-era record in Spain and Italy yesterday, a sign the debt crisis is widening beyond Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the three nations that received bailouts.

[xchrom]

30. Nowotny Signals ECB May Bend on Greece

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-19/ecb-might-compromise-on-defaulted-greek-bonds-as-collateral-nowotny-says.html

European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny suggested the bank may compromise and allow a temporary Greek default as officials scramble to fix a sovereign debt crisis that’s spreading to Italy and Spain before a leaders’ summit in two days.

As Spanish financing costs surged at a 4.45 billion euro ($6.31 billion) treasury bill auction today, policy makers are trying to ease a split that’s pushed interest rates on Spanish and Italian 10-year debt above 6 percent for the first time since the euro debuted 12 years ago. The ECB has until now argued that any Greek default could spark a new financial crisis, derailing a German push to make investors help foot the bill for a second bailout of the country.

“Nowotny is well known as someone who talks a lot,” said Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “He might be revealing that there’s a little bit more flexibility than what was perhaps assumed. On the other hand, we have to be a bit careful with Nowotny. I’d be cautious.”

[xchrom]

31. European Stocks Advance on Improved Earnings

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-19/european-stock-futures-are-little-changed-electrolux-may-drop-on-earnings.html

European stocks gained, rebounding from a seven-month low, as companies from Novartis AG (NOVN) to International Business Machines Corp. reported earnings that beat estimates. U.S. futures rose while most Asian shares fell.

Novartis, Europe’s second-biggest drugmaker by sales, climbed 3.8 percent. SAP AG (SAP) led a rally in technology companies after IBM boosted its forecasts. Electrolux AB (ELUXB), the world’s second-biggest appliance maker, plunged to the lowest in almost two years as profit trailed projections.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 0.8 percent to 264.11 at 11:48 a.m. in London. The gauge has still tumbled 9.3 percent from this year’s high on Feb. 17 amid concern the region’s debt crisis is spreading, just short of the 10 percent drop that strategists define as a correction. The retreat has left the European gauge trading at about 12.5 times the reported profits of its companies, near the cheapest since 2008.

[xchrom]

19. Report: More Americans have green jobs than oil or gas jobs

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/0718/Report-More-Americans-have-green-jobs-than-oil-or-gas-jobs

Throughout his term, President Obama has repeatedly heralded clean energy and the industries that surround it as being a vital element of America's economic future. Many Republicans, meanwhile, have questioned environmental regulations that would promote the "clean economy" as job killers that unduly penalize mature industries more central to the US economy.

But what is the reality of "clean" jobs in the US? A recent study by the Brookings Institution and Battelle Technology Partnership seeks to answer that question.

"Clean" industries ranging from public mass-transit to green energy companies provide 2 percent of the jobs in the United States, according to the study, which was released last week. The number pales in comparison to sectors like health care, which accounts for 10.2 percent, but it is more than other key industries such as biosciences and oil and gas.

[tclambert]

67. But there are more uber rich in oil.

When you count jobs, are you counting more than CEOs with multi-million dollar bonuses? 'Cause those others don't really count in anybody's political calculus.

[xchrom]

20. Business economists see softer U.S. growth

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/business-economists-see-softer-us-growth-2011-07-18

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Business economists have scaled back projections for U.S. growth this year, citing slower company sales and global uncertainty, a quarterly survey found.

The National Association of Business Economists said fewer members reported higher sales in the second quarter while profits also took a hit. Sluggish growth is expected to linger through the rest of 2011.

The “economic landscape is weakening and the recovery is softening,” said Shawn DuBravac, chief economist of the Consumer Electronics Association. DuBravac helped compile the NABE report.
Sales, profits not as strong

In the second quarter, 56% of business economists say their companies or industries posted higher sales. That’s down from 63% in the first quarter.




:eyes: geniuses.

[xchrom]

21. Congo conflict minerals bill hurts the miners it hopes to help {dodd/frank}

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2011/0718/Congo-conflict-minerals-bill-hurts-the-miners-it-hopes-to-help

From the Wall Street Journal's editorial page (gated), a piece on the unintended consequences of the Dodd-Frank conflict minerals provisions:

he highest price is being paid in central Africa, where millions of people, and 16% of the Congo's population, are dependent on small-time digging. By all accounts most of the money from central African mining goes to these artisanal miners. Soldiers and rebels do pocket some of the proceeds, and that's a depressing reality.

But mineral operations also provide the local population with centers of commerce, with cash to pay for supplies and workers and easily traded goods. As money from the mines becomes increasingly scarce, Congo's warlords have moved on to targeting the banana trade. Perhaps conflict-free bananas will be the next object of activist enthusiasm.

Meanwhile, the butchery continues, with recent reports of government troops raping more than 100 women and children over a three-day spree in the Congo's South Kivu region. If all the money from minerals dries up, these killers will not shy from even more atrocious means to fund their ambitions. As for Western policy makers, Section 1502 is a useful lesson in how well-meaning attempts to "do something" in Africa unintentionally harm the innocent without touching the guilty.

[DemReadingDU]

22. Contagion in Three Forms Now Has Grip on Europe: Simon Johnson

7/18/11 Contagion in Three Forms Now Has Grip on Europe: Simon Johnson

There are three types of contagion in a financial crisis, when the potential collapse of a firm, bank or country threatens to spiral out of control. The European Union today has all three.

The first type is purely psychological -- the panic of herd behavior. The second comes from thinking through the real effects that a collapse would have, as the potential spillovers dawn on people. The third, and most devastating, emerges when smart investors realize that their assumptions -- based on the pronouncements of policy makers -- are all wrong and need to be tossed overboard.

A common characteristic of the panic phase is that the bottom drops out of economic forecasts, taking with them the perceived ability of companies or countries to pay their debts. The corollary of this is that estimates of losses soar to once- unimagined levels. Some analysts now suggest that Greece might have to impose a haircut -- or loss -- of as much as 80 percent on creditors. This is up dramatically from the recent market view that 40 percent losses might be needed in a restructuring. Emotions are taking over and the abyss looks bottomless, as it did for Russia in 1998 or Argentina in 2002. Countries, unlike companies, don’t go out of business. But in its panic, the herd tends to forget that.

Typically, in the second type of contagion, the spillover crosses borders because of trade. In the early 1930s, for example, major countries adopted fiscal policies that reduced their demand for other nations’ exports and pushed them toward recession. Some of this spillover also happened during the financial crisis of late 2008, when shrinking demand in the U.S. and Europe rippled through to Asia. Fortunately, most Asian countries were well prepared; their governments had modest debt and didn’t need to turn to fiscal austerity to meet their obligations.

The third type of contagion is the scariest. When investors start believing that an important set of people have changed their minds about providing support to troubled firms or countries, a lot of assets need to be repriced. This is the most plausible explanation of what happened after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the near-failure of American International Group Inc. in September 2008. When the Federal Reserve made a loan to AIG that took priority over other creditors, the value of AIG’s senior debt fell 40 percent. The implication was clear: Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs could either go the Lehman way or the AIG way. The same was true of money market mutual funds. It was time to get out.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-17/contagion-in-three-forms-now-has-grip-on-europe-simon-johnson.html

[Demeter]

23. That Cartoon Says It All

I had a nightmare--as opposed to the economy, which is a daymare--the fruits of sleeping in under a heat advisory.

[xchrom]

24. Wall Street Journal proves Keynes was right

http://www.salon.com/news/us_economy/index.html?story=/tech/htww/2011/07/18/wall_street_journal_proves_keynes_right

A seven-word Wall Street Journal headline says it all: "Dearth of Demand Seen Behind Weak Hiring."

The first paragraph:

The main reason U.S. companies are reluctant to step up hiring is scant demand, rather than uncertainty over government policies, according to a majority of economists in a new Wall Street Journal survey.

It's not every day that one sees liberal econoblogger Keynesian orthodoxy stated so bluntly in the Wall Street Journal, so we should cherish it when it happens. But what could be more obvious, even in the absence of rigorous training in economics? In the absence of demand, businesses will refrain from ramping up production and adding staff -- no matter what employers think about the future regulatory climate. To prime this pump, to rev up this engine, to get the "delicate machine" working properly, the first focus for economic policymakers should be figuring out ways to boost demand.

[tclambert]

55. The simple answer for boosting demand: Jobs

More people with jobs means more customers with money to spend.

Here's a weird thing. I was curious about the history of the Bank of England, and it turns out they created it to handle the financing of England building a great navy. Then wikipedia said this: "As a side-effect, the huge industrial effort needed started to transform the economy, from iron works making nails to agriculture feeding the quadrupled strength of the Royal Navy. This helped the new United Kingdom – England and Scotland were formally united in 1707 – to become prosperous and powerful. Together with the power of the navy, this made Britain the dominant world power in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries."

In other words, a giant government spending program made the nation prosperous and powerful. Building the Royal Navy spread the high technology of the day (1700s) to other parts of the British economy.

[xchrom]

26. The Republican plot to turn the U.S into Greece

http://www.salon.com/news/budget_showdown/index.html?story=/tech/htww/2011/07/18/the_united_states_and_greece

It has become fashionable among Republican politicians to warn that if the United States does not speedily get its fiscal act together, it is in danger of becoming another Greece -- plagued by impending bankruptcy, riots and general dysfunction. On Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., was merely the latest to sound the alarm.

Graham, in turn, said that the real threat to the nation is the burden of unsustainable debt.

"What is calamitous is the path we're on as a nation," he said. "We're becoming Greece."

Graham's assertion is laughable on multiple levels. Steve Benen offers a concise summary:

The U.S. has extremely low interest rates and foreign investors are happy to loan us money; Greece has extremely high interest rates and no one is eager to loan the country money. The U.S. has our own currency; Greece has the Euro. We have a great credit rating (for now); Greece has an awful credit rating. We have a manageable debt; Greece has a debt crisis. We're a large country with an enormous economy; Greece is a small country with a small economy. We have one of the world's most stable systems of government (at least until six months ago); Greece's government structure is a little shaky.

[Demeter]

32. All of that is subject to change without notice

especially the parts that are illusionary.

[CatholicEdHead]

63. Even without a full default, a credit downgrade will be profitable

for bondholders once the AAA is lost. They will make more money.

[Demeter]

34. ELIZABETH WARREN BIO & Why a Warren Run for Senate is a Terrible Idea

Why Liberals are Lame, Part 3: Why a Warren Run for Senate is a Terrible Idea

LENGTHY GOOD READ

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/07/why-liberals-are-lame-part-3-why-a-warren-run-for-senate-is-a-bad-idea.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

BUT IF SHE WANTED TO OPPOSE OBAMA IN A PRIMARY....SHE COULD SWEEP IT.

[xchrom]

38. +1

[PassingFair]

72. Splendid article...

Thanks for posting.

[xchrom]

37. Minnesota Fair Trade Coalition Affiliate of the Citizens Trade Campaign

http://www.fairtrademinnesota.org/

these folks are a grass roots group fighting the colombia and korea free trade agreements.

[xchrom]

39. Bill Clinton Would Declare The Debt Limit Illegal

http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-clinton-would-declare-debt-limit-illegal-2011-7

Former President Bill Clinton waded into the debt ceiling negotiations Monday, saying if he were still in office he would raise the debt ceiling unilaterally, “without hesitation, and force the courts to stop me."

In an interview with The National Memo, Clinton said he believes the limit violates the 14th Amendment.

"I think the Constitution is clear and I think this idea that the Congress gets to vote twice on whether to pay for it has appropriated is crazy," he said.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-clinton-would-declare-debt-limit-illegal-2011-7#ixzz1SYSKQrBC



i have a serious love/hate relationship w/ that man.

[xchrom]

48. The Guys Who Sign the Checks

http://www.slate.com/id/2299461/

In the nine weeks since the United States hit its debt ceiling, there has been no shortage of debate about whether and how to lift the cap, what mix of taxes or cuts to demand or accept, and how the financial markets would react if and when the Treasury Department actually stopped sending out checks. The best guess to that last question is that it would shave 10 percent off of monthly GDP, shock the world markets, and tip the country back into recession.

Less prominent, however, has been the debate about the one question underlying this whole crisis: Should we have a debt ceiling at all? After all, the mechanism is unnecessary for budgeting and has become of late nothing more than a beloved, and dangerous, political football. Bright minds from both sides of the ideological spectrum, including Bruce Bartlett (who gave me the idea for this article) and Alan Greenspan, have come to the same conclusion. And on Monday, the ratings agency Moody's declared the ceiling more trouble than it is worth as well.

But what do the people who have dealt most directly with the debt ceiling think? There are nine former secretaries of the treasury still living. Do they think the limit is a useful tool or a periodic annoyance? Do they want it to force Congress to continually reconsider its profligate ways? Or is it too risky a device, given the panic it could set off in the bond markets? Right now, the count is 3-to-1 for eliminating the debt ceiling, with one Republican appointee saying it should be eliminated, one saying it should be kept, and two Democratic appointees for its elimination.
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Robert Rubin, Clinton's first treasury secretary, has long made his thoughts on the debt ceiling known. He told the Washington Post in May, for instance, that he did not think the country should have one. "It's an anachronism," he said bluntly. Another Clinton appointee, Larry Summers, concurs. "I think that given that Congress has to approve all spending and all tax changes, there is not much logic to the debt ceiling," he told me in an email. "And suspect that any benefits it provides in terms of encouraging fiscal restraint are outweighed by the diversion of energy and accident risk of processes like the one we are seeing now."

[tclambert]

56. He's referring to section 4 of the 14th amendment:

"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."

It does seem on point. A lot of people are questioning the public debt and its validity. By doing so, they are defying the Constitution!

[xchrom]

57. you are hearing more people talk about it. nt

[xchrom]

40. George Soros Is 75% In Cash

http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-is-holding-75-cash-2011-7

One of George Soros' funds, the flagship Quantum Endowment Fund, is holding 75% cash right now according to Bloomberg, which spoke to two people familiar with the fund.

That's $19.125 billion cash the fund is holding, after the fund lost 6% YTD and it's main portfolio manager, Keith Anderson, decided to cut his losses.

Bloomberg says:

In mid-June, Anderson told his portfolio managers to pull back on trades as the hedge fund’s losses hit 6 percent for the year, according to two people familiar with the New York-based firm. As a result, the fund is about 75 percent in cash as it waits for better opportunities.

The Quantum Endowment Fund is the flagship fund after Soros merged the flagship Quantum Fund with the Quantum Emerging Growth Fund to form it in July 2000, after the departure of Stanley Druckenmiller and Nicholas Roditi.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-is-holding-75-cash-2011-7#ixzz1SYSz7ANE

[Demeter]

42. If it isn't currency, it's not cash

He's just holding paper, or electronic, promises that won't be kept.

[xchrom]

43. i figured it was because he thought somebody might want to borrow from him? nt

[Demeter]

45. Here's an Idea so Crazy, It Just Might Work: Coin Seigniorage

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/07/why-matt-yglesias-and-felix-salmon-are-wrong-about-a-legal-way-to-circumvent-the-debt-ceiling-impasse.html

Why Matt Yglesias and Felix Salmon are Wrong About A Legal Way to Circumvent the Debt Ceiling Impasse

By Joe Firestone of Correntewire

...I think he (Geithner) can use proof platinum coin seigniorage to supply all the money needed to spend Congressional Appropriations. I do not know if the Administration knows about this idea yet. It may, and it may simply have been unwilling to mention it for its own reasons. But just in case it doesn’t know, and also for the sake of the rest of us, I’m making another attempt to state the case for using coin seigniorage, so that as many people as possible know that the President has an alternative to the “shock doctrine,” make a deal approach to cutting essential spending and services including the social safety net, in return for getting $2.6 Trillion more in debt issuance authority.

The idea of using coin seigniorage to remove the need for issuing debt, and so to always stay under the debt ceiling, is due to a commenter (and occasional blogger) on economics and politics blogs whose screen name is beowulf. He first presented the idea in comments and then posted the seminal blog on coin seigniorage. Throughout the next six months, a number of other posts appeared at various sites (see here for links) with increasing frequency as the debt limit problem received more attention. In the last few days, as coin seigniorage itself climbed up the hierarchy of public awareness, Felix Salmon and Matt Yglesias, both well-respected, mainstream, and professional bloggers, have mentioned the proposal while taking issue with it for reasons I’ll analyze below.

Before, I do that however, here’s what’s involved in proof platinum coin seigniorage. “Congress provided the authority, in legislation passed in 1996, for the US Mint to create platinum bullion or proof platinum coins with arbitrary fiat face value having no relationship to the value of the platinum used in these coins. These coins are legal tender. So, when the Mint deposits them in its Public Enterprise Fund account at the Fed, the Fed must credit that account with the face value of these coins. This difference between the Mint’s costs in producing the coins and the credit provided by the Fed is the US Mint’s profit. The US code also provides for the Treasury to periodically “sweep” the Mint’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank for profits earned from these coins. Coin seigniorage is just the profits from these coins, which are then booked as miscellaneous receipts (revenue) to the Treasury and go into the Treasury General Account (TGA), narrowing the revenue gap between spending and tax revenues. Platinum coins with huge face values e.g. $2 Trillion, could close the revenue gap entirely, and technically end deficit spending, while still retaining the gap between tax revenues and spending...

BUT MY PERSONAL FAVORITE IS MAKING THE FED RESERVE BURN ITS TREASURIES...AND IF THE FED GOES BANKRUPT, OH WELL!

[Demeter]

46. Summer rerun – If the US stopped issuing treasuries, would it go broke? EDWARD HARRISON

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/07/summer-rerun-if-the-us-stopped-issuing-treasuries-would-it-go-broke.html

...Put more simply, there is nothing supporting fiat currency besides the coercive power of the state to impose tax and to entrench its obligations’ circulation as legal tender.

When thinking about the debt ceiling debate, the reality then is that the debt ceiling is a purely artificial constraint; Treasury notes or bonds are substantively the same as every other US government obligation. It is interesting that no other major developed economy has such a constraint. I would be interested in readers’ with knowledge of the debt ceiling history explaining why this is so.

In any event, some economists recognize that the US government obligations are all substantively identical promises to repay a specific amount of the currency unit of account backed by nothing but taxing authority. A a result, there has been a lot of chatter about ways of circumventing the debt ceiling by issuing other forms of US government obligations and swapping those with outstanding Treasuries to diminish the number of Treasuries outstanding. Some of these proposals are fairly inventive. See Scott Fullwiler’s here for instance.

I doubt Secretary Geithner would implement any of these schemes, of course. But the larger question I have goes to the reason the debt ceiling exists at all: all deficit spending must be accompanied by the issuance of an equivalent unit of currency amount of Treasuries. Mentally, this ties the deficit spending and the treasuries together so that the layman thinks the Treasuries ‘fund’ the deficit spending....Treasuries don’t ‘fund’ anything. The US government issues Treasuries only because it is forced to do so to create the artificial tie between Treasuries and deficits and the mental connection we make as a result.

Now, with a default looming, we are seeing that, as artificial as this constraint is, it has real world implications. So the answer to the question in the title is yes.

[tclambert]

59. Well, that's just silly. AT&T and several utility companies pay 5% dividends.

AT&T (T): 5.7%
Verizon (VZ): 5.3%
Duke Energy (DUK): 5.3%
Consolidated Edison (ED): 4.5%
American Electric Power (AEP): 4.9%
The Southern Company (SO): 4.7%
DTE Energy (DTE): 4.7%

A little riskier:

CenturyLink (CTL): 7.5%
Windstream (WIN): 7.9%
Frontier Communications (FTR): 9.7%

Not quite as safe as a savings account, but my credit union only pays .045% annual interest on savings now. ConEd's dividends pay 100 times that rate. And ConEd has a Beta of 0.24, which means very little volatility in share price. Stock prices can go down, but inflation can make cash worth less (or worthless). If you're gonna park a large amount of investment money waiting for good opportunities, why not park it in something paying 5% dividends?

And with a boring investment like AT&T paying 5.7% dividends, how can your investment fund lose 6%? That's just bad investors making things too exciting.

[Hotler]

47. If it was not for SMW I do not think I would vist Du any more.

The hate in GD (Jones Town) these days makes my head hurt.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. You are not alone, Hotler

And you are among friends here.

I rarely venture out, unless it's to read something on a headline. But it's really scary when even your FRIENDS (and you know who you are, you fool! :hi: ) come stalking into other forums.


TG, TT

[hamerfan]

65. A small island of sanity here

in the DU.
DU has changed over the years. So I, like the others, am mostly here unless a headline grabs my eye.
I do like the book sections, but I made the mistake once (once!) of finding the 9/11 forum.

[tclambert]

68. Dude, Sanity lives at the North Pole with a buncha elves. This is about economics.

Ain't no Sanity there.

[DemReadingDU]

71. Unfortunately, that forum that shouldn't be named

has been a catch-all for several long-time posters, and makes me cringe that their topic was moved there.


Gosh it's hot in SW Ohio, heat index is said to be 108!

[xchrom]

58. U.S. Housing Starts Reached Five-Month High in June

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-19/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-14-6-to-629-000-annual-rate-permits-increase.html

Housing starts in the U.S. jumped more than forecast in June as better weather allowed the struggling industry to break ground on delayed projects.

Work began on 629,000 houses at an annual pace, up 15 percent from May and the highest level in five months, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The level topped the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 71 economists. Building permits, a sign of future construction, unexpectedly climbed 2.5 percent.

“A lot of this was due to some catch-up in activity that didn’t occur in April and May,” said Paul Dales, a senior economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto, who had the highest forecast in the Bloomberg survey. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see starts edge up gradually, but the bigger picture is it’s still at a very depressed level.”

[xchrom]

64. Goldman Sachs Profit Misses Estimates

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-19/goldman-sachs-profit-misses-estimates.html

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), the U.S. bank that makes most of its money from trading, reported second- quarter profit that fell short of analysts’ estimates as fixed- income revenue plunged 63 percent from the first quarter.

Net income climbed 77 percent to $1.09 billion, or $1.85 per share, from $613 million, or 78 cents, in the same period a year earlier, the New York-based company said today in a statement. That compares with the $2.30 per-share average estimate of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Earnings fell 38 percent if one-time costs are excluded from the 2010 results.

The fixed-income trading-revenue drop was more than twice as large as at any other major U.S. bank. Overall trading revenue at Goldman Sachs, led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein, fell 47 percent from the first quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)’s investment bank reported a smaller-than-expected 17 percent decline in trading revenue last week, while the same business at Citigroup Inc. (C) fell 21 percent.

“All the news is going to be about Goldman Sachs today because people brought their numbers down and they still missed those numbers,” Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets, said in an interview on Bloomberg television. “The question is going to be why were their revenues down much greater than their competitors? Probably they were positioned differently.”




***another news outlet -- wsj -- reports they will slash 1,000 jobs.

[hamerfan]

70. Apple Reports Third Quarter Results All-Time Record Revenue and Earnings

CUPERTINO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2011 third quarter ended June 25, 2011. The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $28.57 billion and record quarterly net profit of $7.31 billion, or $7.79 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $15.70 billion and net quarterly profit of $3.25 billion, or $3.51 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 41.7 percent compared to 39.1 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 62 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

“We are extremely pleased with our performance which drove quarterly cash flow from operations of $11.1 billion, an increase of 131 percent year-over-year”
The Company sold 20.34 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 142 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.25 million iPads during the quarter, a 183 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 3.95 million Macs during the quarter, a 14 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 7.54 million iPods, a 20 percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.

“We’re thrilled to deliver our best quarter ever, with revenue up 82 percent and profits up 125 percent,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “Right now, we’re very focused and excited about bringing iOS 5 and iCloud to our users this fall.”

“We are extremely pleased with our performance which drove quarterly cash flow from operations of $11.1 billion, an increase of 131 percent year-over-year,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter of 2011, we expect revenue of about $25 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share of about $5.50.”



http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110719007148/en/Apple-Reports-Quarter-Results