CNN: Bush 51 Kerry 46!

[Timefortruth]

This is incredible.

http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[slinkerwink]

1. WTF?!?!?!

[keithyboy]

36. It's official: WE hate our freedoms!

We hate our democracy, our liberty, our justice, our way of life.
That's what this poll says to me.

[Kadie]

2. HUH?

OK, something is wrong here! :wtf:

[LynzM]

3. Dude!

What the *&#$^????

I thought people were starting to pay attention to all the CRAP that BushCo is getting away with....

Hopefully this poll is just as inaccurate as most? *crosses fingers*

[shockingelk]

33. within MOE ...

The change is within the margin of error, so it can be "wrong" and atr the same time not inaccurate ... plus one has to consider that the Bush campaign has been burning money and putting on a constant full court media blitz just not to loose ground. They can't swim against the current forever.

[KissMyAsscroft]

4. Polls are pointless...

it always fluctuates wildly...its way too early to freak about this.

It's going to be close, though.

[Direckshun]

69. ...

KissMyAsscroft is right.

It's too early. Let's start freaking out when the more accurate polls come out in the fall.

[TheDonkey]

5. haha, it's bullshit. Even if it were correct, a 5 point lead for a "war"

time president has got to hurt. Kerry has yet to pick his VP and let out an advertising explosion

[curlyred]

6. isn't that the only poll in the whole list where Bush is ahead?

[DaveSZ]

11. All other polls have Kerry ahead

This proves that CNN has sold out.

[OilemFirchen]

7. Gallup has been a puggie poll since Nixon

By contrast, look at the Zogby poll directly following. Bush 44, Kerry 47. Much more reliable.

[fearnobush]

86. Zogby is perhaps the most reliable. The Media whore polls

are done on the cheap. CNN poll also samples 40% Repuke, 34%Dem. Also. 2 days before the 2000 election Zogby was the only poll that had Gore ahead by 1 to 3pts. The rest had Chimp at 3 to 5pts up. Gore won 51% of the vote. Zogby wins. (So did Chimp, go figure?)

[ronatchig]

8. I just hope

these clowns actually believe this. One wonders if they have been at the GOP Kool Aid or if they are so myopic as to not realize the facts as they really are in America..

[davhill]

9. It strains my credibility

I live in a very strongly Republican area and I don't get a sense of anywhere near that spread. It must be that Bush supporters are keeping their opinions to themselves except when polled.

[liarliartieonfire]

17. Bush's support is more like 35%

in the REAL world, that is.

I really think he's barely at 40.

[Indiana_Dem]

10. this situation seems to reflect my life as a whole lately!! n/t

[enki23]

12. bush has a $106 million money advantage

can't remember the exact numbers, except that it's between 30 and 50-something times as much money as kerry. anything short of a collosal fuckup of truly, TRULY gargantuan proportions, it's in the bag. even then (considering the iraq war is just a few hairsbreadths from truly gargantuan) it's still probably in the bag.

[soleft]

Pundits will explain this as being a post press conferenc bump

[Yavin4]

13. Didn't Know Diebold Also Did Polling

Boy, that company sure does get around.

Seriously, after all that has come out, if Bush wins, this country is beyond help. I'm moving to Vancouver.

[Poiuyt]

14. CNN/Gallop polls

CNN/Gallop polls usually show bush ahead nationwide. Most of the other polls show Kerry leading.

On the other hand, the state by state surveys show bush leading the Electoral College race.

[lancdem]

75. I think they're basically tied electorally

[alittlelark]

So long as they fake high #'s for *

They stand a chance of using BBV to steal the office again.

[displacedtexan]

15. 3 Magic Words: Margin of Error

In this case, the MOE is +/- 4.
The reality of the poll could be Bush 47/ Kerry 50.

Gallup is just doing its part as a wholly owned subsidiary of the BFEE.

[yardwork]

74. THANK YOU!!!

We need to learn how to read these polls. Look for the margin of error. Add and subtract the margin of error from each result. You will see that the race is still a dead heat, and this is assuming that the polls are capturing representative samples (which I doubt).

The media spins it pro-Bush. One reason for this is that Bush is president and Bush's campaign has a lot more money to spend on ads.

No station wants to annoy BushCo right now. They want those advertising dollars. They want access to press interviews.

Don't let these polls discourage you!

[Tempest]

16. Gallup is way off from all the other polls

Zogby International Poll

Kerry: 47%
Bush: 44%


InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate poll

Kerry: 43%
Bush: 37%


Newsweek Poll

Kerry: 46%
Bush: 42%


American Research Group Poll

Kerry: 50%
Bush: 44%

etc.

Even Faux has Kerry beating Bush.

[RoyGBiv]

18. CNN polls - Bad: Rasmussen 45(B) - 46(K)

CNN polls are notoriously unreliable, and I've seen speculation that they manipulate results to work ratings. I don't even like them when they go the way I want them to go because I always think there's a "story idea" behind it.

Their sampling group size and the margin of error are enough to completely reverse these results within five minutes.

Rasmussen has a different take

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[nolabels]

71. Is what is scary is how uninformed most of the people living in the US are

Met some guy scared out of his wits after he had been listening to AIR AMERICA and what *co was doing. I asked him if had a computer and got online to check out any political sites. A BIG no is what I got, he didn't even have a computer. We are working on a disadvantaged curve here, so it really is amazing in that any of the the numbers look like this.

The Corporate interests have a very acute need to have things go their way this time around and are pulling out the stops were ever possible. If you lived in California during the installation of the Arnie as Gropenator Govenator. You might know about this.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/War%20on%20Terror_April%20Press%20Conference%202.htm
(snip)
58% Say U.S. Will Succeed in Iraq

46% Say U.S. Safer Since 9/11

Is U.S. Safer than before 9/11?
Yes 46%
No 39%
Not Sure 15%
RasmussenReports.com

Best Strategy for War on Terror
Fight Back Aggressively 44%
Work for International Solution 48%
RasmussenReports.com

Election 2004


April 18, 2004--President Bush's Press Conference had a modestly positive impact on public perceptions in Iraq.

On the two nights following the Press Conference, 46% say the U.S. is safer today than it was before 9/11. Just 39% disagree. Those figures represent a net improvement of eight points compared to data collected before the Press Conference. At that time, just 41% said the U.S. was safer and 42% said it was not.
(snip)

I guess we might be living in parallel universes, I listened to two or three minutes on the radio, hearing the fool and never came to that conclusion of being safer or being in a better position.
Of course taking note that most large nations rot from the inside before outside forces ever have an effect is what I like to keep in mind first.

[aquart]

93. 58% US will succeed in Iraq............Succeed at what? Succeed how?

Impossibly muddy question. The answer is worthless.

Note that 48% still prefer a negotiated international solution.

[nolabels]

97. I don't think you could get more than two or three here at DU to agree....

about all the things that could possibly happen in Iraq. I agree, but what I was trying to point out, is the the Corporate Media spins out that *co is confident (regardless if they are or not) and then on cue the corporate media spits out they are leaning to *co.

I also try not to believe anything Corporate media spins out. I even find it even easier to think the opposite, which a lot of times is correct.

[webtrainer]

19. How Bush #s went up in the last two weeks . . .

I'll never know.

I wonder if the wording on the question, specifically the words "Massachusetts Senator" skews it a bit.

There is a little note that says "Names rotated".

Does that mean the names are rotated per respondent or for each iteration of the poll?

Nader takes away 2 points from Kerry, 1 from Bush, which leaves only 1% voting because they like Nader himself. Work to do!

[davhill]

70. Who is it Who would vote for Nader

If Nader is running and for Bush if he is not? The anybody but Kerry vote?

[NeoConsSuck]

20. the same poll is front page at USAToday.com

bottom line, Kerry has to start getting his message out. I would say that mainstream media should start giving him equal time, but we know that mainstream media is reich-wing.

Kerry had a 50-44 lead over Bush in March when the primaries were in full force and his face was on front page news. He was in the media every day then, as Bush is now.

The problem is not his message, no one is hearing it.

[shockingelk]

39. the headline

USA today sub-headline reads "Job rating at 52% despite Iraq, 9/11 hearings"

s/b

"Job rating at 52% despite $millions of ads and full WH cabinet concentrating on media interviews"

[hedda_foil]

21. ABC/WaPo poll is coming out today.

According to The Note, it should be VERY interesting.

[Just Me]

22. Screw polls!!!!

They are inaccurate, contrived, unreliable and manipulative.

[daleo]

23. They ask "undecideds" who they lean toward

And include these in the poll. That might explain something, although I don't know enough of the ins and outs of the U.S. electorate (e.g. undecideds likelihood to actually vote) to know for sure.

[Chicago Democrat]

94. They did a piece on NPR about Gallup's interview techniques

that said pretty much the same thing. The interviews totally pressure people into an answer. The techniques seemed flawed.

[still_one]

24. just the opposite of what Zogby said

[plcdude]

25. notice that all the other

polls have Kerry ahead now why just report on one of them? Makes you go hmmmmmmmmmmm.

[Vinceklortho]

26. Ruh roh.

Someone ask this question....

What's the difference between Kerry and Bush AGAIN?!

So far (as of last week) Kerry has been Bush-lite, not what the lefties want.

[matcom]

27. care to elaborate?

or is that the extent of your 'insight'

[Walt Starr]

I'm agreeing with him for the most part these days

I am really being turned off to Kerry on a daily basis and am now firmly in the "undecided" column for 2004.

[qanda]

47. I haven't gone that far *yet*

But, Kerry seems to lack so much that it's hard to make arguments about why I should cast my vote for him in November. I hope he chooses a vp that can bring some life and conviction to his campaign because as it stands right now I can barely watch him without feeling sick that he's the Democratic nominee.

[malachibk]

64. Did you people watch MTP??

Come on! He was SMART, LOGICAL, he ANSWERED QUESTIONS, and came across as HONEST. What the hell do you want him to do?? He's not my favorite, but he's WAAAAAAAAAAY better than Bush. COME ON!! Undecided?? Ugh

[Carolina]

79. couldn't have said it better

that's why I am so sorry the primary season was contracted and all the other voices were apparently doomed after Iowa and NH.

That daily chorus of voices against Bush along with all the other stuff that has come to light recently would have been great.

As for Kerry, I also feel "as it stands right now I can barely watch him without feeling sick that he's the Democratic nominee." I didn't think his MTP performance yesterday was that great and besides he was orange.

[Vinceklortho]

30. Glad to!

See the following post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x496103#497616

[Walt Starr]

28. Are you the keymaster?

hee hee.

[buddy22600]

31. No, I'm the gatekeeper

My $.02...

Polls are effectively useless right now. When the Dem convention happens, Kerry will likely top bush by over 10 points.

When the repub convention happens, bush will likely tie Kerry again.

The only thing you can take from that, is that usually after a convention a candidate has the lead, but bush will only be in a tie, his money mostly gone in order to stay tied up to his convention and about worn out trying to dodge every bullet fired from Kerry, MoveOn, and the unions.

Kerry has it in the bag.

[Vinceklortho]

32. Yes.. are you the Gatekeeper?

Must... release.. Zuul.

[qanda]

41. I asked that question last week on the reparations thread

And I was told by at least six people to vote for Bush or Nader then. Well, if enough people's concerns are thrown to the side in favor of blind support for Kerry then get ready for four more years of Bush.

[buff2]

45. Are you one of the "lefties?"

Somehow I rather doubt it.

[Vinceklortho]

48. Oh yes I am.

Are you a leftie?

I'm way left of Gandhi on polticial compass.

VinceK

[buff2]

56. Yes I am a leftie

And proud of it! :hi:

[oasis]

96. Who, in your opinion, would be an acceptable candidate for the "lefties"?

[jobycom]

29. It's all about the sample

Gallup is using a more conservative bias than the other polls, thus Bush is winning. With such a small sample, a minor disagreement can have a big effect. Some polls believe Dems and Repubs vote in equal numbers, some give one party or the other a slight edge. Some use strict historical breakdowns of who is likely to vote, others have more complicated formulas to try to catch changing trends. There are a lot of variables.

Who knows which one is correct. What it all shows is what we know: Bush will be hard to beat, but we are on the right track.

[Bluebear]

34. CNN's Schneider....

America is rallying around its president. If the last couple weeks don't do in Bush, nothing will.

[Timefortruth]

40. He and Wolfie make CNN worse than Faux.

At least at Faux the pretense that they are unbiased is thinly veiled, CNN really pretends that it is news.

[Bluebear]

44. Agreed.

And any time things heat up for Bush the CNN anchor will say "Well, we'll have to leave it at that, I'm sure this story isn't over"....while they never probe the story.

[sspiderjohn]

60. Wolf looks really short -- what is he, about 5'3"? n/t

nt

[sampsonblk]

35. What is so surprising??

Bush obviously lied. How hard is that to see? Problem is, John Kerry hasn't shown people why that means they should vote for him to replace the liar. "But I can beat Bush" isn't going to work now.

This is the same poor campaign Kerry ran in the primaries. He is going to need help from a lot of people at the grassroots level.

[0rganism]

82. Kerry ran a poor campaign in the primaries? WTF?

Sen. John Kerry certainly wouldn't have been my first choice in the primaries, but my state hasn't even had its primaries yet and Kerry's already a sho-in. At first, I thought he was running a lousy campaign, but the more I look at what happened, the more I see Kerry's running a BRILLIANT campaign.

For months, the media was glowing over Dean and Clark, and they were running strong in the polls, but John Kerry snuck in behind 'em. Various accounts claimed his campaign was in disarray, not mobilizing the grassroots, when in fact Kerry was operating under their radar. He ran a flawless primary campaign, and now he's running the best damned general campaign he can, given the whore press.

Right now he's letting the bush campaign blow lots of money on useless attack ads while the preznit hoists himself on his own petard. Of the many polls that came out over the last month, only CNN's has chimpy mccokespoon out in front. For a challenger to be running ahead, tied, or (if we presume CNN's poll to be accurate) even slightly behind at this time shows the softness of shrub's position.

Sen. Kerry is playing it smart, saving his fire for when it can do the most damage. My admiration for his political judo skills grows by the day.

[sampsonblk]

100. WTF is right!

"...the more I see Kerry's running a BRILLIANT campaign."

I hope the Kerry people don't hold that view. Kerry was chosen by the voters. Not because of anything he did, but because they didn't want to run the risk of picking Dean.

Exit polls show it pretty clearly. A large percentage of the Dems who voted for Kerry did so in spite of campaign and with a total disregard for Kerry's views. They picked him because he's a war hero and seemed to be the one to beat Bush. I have never seen anything like it. Neither had most pundits apparently.

[grasswire]

37. OMG

PURE WHORING from Schneider and Blitzer for Bush.

PURE WHORING!

[Nevernose]

38. Every other poll from that period favors Kerry

http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[54anickel]

42. Should Shrub be reelected or is it time for someone new -

43 re-select
51 someone new
6 undecided

On edit, sorry different poll than CNN

[dawn]

43. I don't even look at the polls anymore.

Every day there's a new one. They seem so meaningless.

[wasichu]

46. everyone believes polls when Kerry is ahead

but not when he is down.
Why is that?

[buff2]

51. Same reason freepers don't believe

the polls when bush's down,but when he's up they do. Why is THAT?

[sugarman]

49. Let's organize a one-day boycott...

...of CNN to protest media bias. I'm sure we all make up a sizeable percentage of viewers of CNN. Let's get all of the prominent bloggers to join us. We need to flex our muscle...

[Carolina]

80. and put NO CNN stickers on our cars

wear them or carry placards of them at rallies ... like CNN with a red line through it.

It won't upset repukes and freepers 'cause they think CNN is librul!

It's a win/win. Piss off Candy, Wolf and Bill without antagonizing the gun nut zealots of the right.

[West Coast Democrat]

50. Kerry spends little on advertising, stays w/in margin of error

just think....every week a new book comes out that makes Bush look even worse, and the GOP has to spend $10 million a week to keep even in the polls.

[MikeG]

52. It's a poll of "likely" voters not "registered" voters.

These polls always skew Republican.
W was also leading in this poll from 4/5-4/8

[sugarman]

53. is there anyway we can organize to influence the media?

Could we organize a media boycott?

I've been trying to promote this idea, but no one seems to be listening...

[LynzM]

57. And I keep reading it...

I think it's good, but no idea how you'd effectively manage it. Other than making news ourselves that they would be somehow forced to cover.... Anyone out there with good ideas/insight!?!?

[sugarman]

62. I do...

We need to email prominent bloggers in mass. I've already emailed them. But more people need to email them. Also we need to kepp floating the idea on DU until more people get interested...

[freetobegay]

54. And People called me an idiot

Because I said just as of yesterday the majority of Americans are sheeple! AM I still an idiot today?

[number6]

55. N=767 likely voters nationwide

767 ? a sample of less than 800 people, what a joke !

[cureautismnow]

61. Precisely...

...and how many polled were "likely" Rep., how many "likely" Dem.'s, and how many "likely" Indies?

They don't ever tell you. I suspect 400+ of the respondents were Rep.'s.

In other words, it's a biased meaningless poll.

[tom_paine]

58. I believe that as much as I believe a Soviet Poll showing Brezhnev ahead

EXACTLY as much.

[Stuckinthebush]

59. That is not nice to see....but......

It just doesn't matter.

All that matters are the State by State numbers. We saw in 2000 that we can win the popular vote but lose the presidency.

What do those battle ground states look like? I haven't seen recent polls in OH and PA which are necessary for us to win.

[mumon]

63. RELAX - IT'S WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR!

"N= 767?????"

And Zogby's got better numbers...

[Onlooker]

65. We spent a decade cowering before the right-wing

The Democratic leadership spent more than a decade cowering to Republican insults and threats. It's going to take awhile to turn it around, but slowly it's happening. We have to keep up the pressure, and sooner or later independents will break in our favor and Repugs will lose some of their motivation.

[Democat]

66. The problem is that most of the Democratic cowards are still in office

How many of our senators and congresspeople stand up to Bush every day compared to how many Republicans stood up to Clinton. It's shamefull how weak our elected officials are. It will take many years to clear out the wimps and replace them with fighters.

[Carolina]

88. exactly, it's Republicans

who are coming out and exposing BushCo: Dick Clarke, Paul O'Neill, Bob Woodward, Kevin Phillips, John Dean, former republican Wesley Clark who didn't hesitate to call himself liberal and point out why the Democratic Party is RIGHT on the issues...

With few exceptions -- Robert Byrd, Ted Kennedy, Charlie Rangel, Sheila Jackson Lee -- our folks have been a pathetic bunch of wimpocrats. The party's failure to stand united, consistently and vociferously against Bush since the shenanigans following 11/7/2000 has been sickening. It has also been a LOSING strategy.

[AlinPA]

67. I'm reading "1984" again. These poll numbers sound like

something out of the Ministry of Truth.

[Aquarian_Conspirator]

68. Here is why this poll makes perfect sense.

On either side of any average there is a half that is above, and a half that is below. Half of the US population has a below average IQ. Guess which half supports Bush? And, the more we try and take away that half's warm blanky, the tighter their white knuckled grip becomes. "No, no take away blanky! Blanky goooood!!! Waaaaah-waaaaah"

[Snellius]

72. Kerry has still not clearly distinguished his policy from Bush

Kerry condoned Bush's change in policy on the West Bank and Gaza. He condoned the assassination of the leader of Hamas. He continues to support our presence in Iraq, just as ,out of necessity, Bush has moved toward Kerry's position, by dumping the problem in the lap of the U.N. Any damage done to Bush in the last month has been self-inflicted. With so much bullshit, the truth takes time to catch up.

[goforit]

73. If CNN keeps up these lies ....then it will EMPOWER US to STAND!!!!!

So BRING IT ON CNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Carolina]

76. Republicans don't read

Where I live, I see more and more W '04 or Bush-Cheney '04 bumper stickers, particularly on large SUVs with blonde suburbanite Stepford wives and children aboard. They like their tax cuts and their oil!
Sorry for the stereotype, but hey, if the shoe fits ...

The sad thing is that these people have money and access to computers, books, every imaginable resource but they don't question, they don't challenge, they don't read. Their status quo is grand while the rest of the world be damned. They are entitled, they have earned their place or lot in life... And all the latest stuff, particularly the anti-Bush books and the revelations via 60 minutes and the 9/11 commission, are just tools to bring down a Christian man, tools that come from disgruntled rejects.

One such individual whom I was friends with but whose company I find harder and harder to tolerate because of her blind faith in the Republican Party and God (and yes, they go hand in hand), is an attorney. A damn good one, too. But she reads NOTHING aside from stuff relative to work except for magazines like People. She is pro-war, anti-tax, anti-abortion and pro-Bush ... She won't even consider voting for a Democrat, not now, not ever :shrug:

It's truly scary. This poll may be CNN Bushit and may be within the margin of error, but the unread/uninformed sheeple, the true believer freepers, and the wealthy Stepford Bushistas are out there and they vote, in polls and in elections.

[dolstein]

77. No, the only thing incredible is the inability of DU'ers to acknowledge

the possibility that voters just might prefer Bush to Kerry.

[bluedog]

78. does N=767 mean

number of people polled??? If so this poll is ridiculus .

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. April 16-18, 2004. N=767 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

[0rganism]

83. yes it does

and yes it is

[devinsgram]

81. If it's CNN it can't be true.

[Phelix_Dacat]

84. The poll is worthless

Polls done over the weekend favor republicans. This one was done over a weekend.

You want a poll done during the weekdays of likely voters. Otherwise it's just another pushpoll imnsho.

[TrueD]

89. Not really

Pollster take into account skews such as "weekend." The trick to polling is the skew that's employed by the pollster. That's why polls vary between pollsters. They try to deskew their sample based on day or geography or any of a thousand variables. It's the art of polling.

For example, polls during the week to homes favor democrats because they are statistically more likely to be home for whatever reason. The poll is reskewed for that time knowing there is a skew. Same thing for weekends and nights and holidays. Also the population sample is deskewed for people who have phones, etc.

[Zero Division]

85. Don't look at individual polls for an accurate picture

Given many of the responses on this thread and in others that deal with individual poll results, I think it's safe to say that not enough DUers look at the trends found in multiple polls. Although this site has been posted many times before here, I'll post it again:

http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/

Look at this chart, for example (this is accurate up to the 18th of April)

http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/img_bush_kerry_spread.gif

[Snellius]

87. If it's any consolation, Dick Morris says it looks bad for Bush.

Heard Dick Morris on Hannity's radio show this afternoon, and he had poor Hannity almost in tears over his dire predictions. He said the fact that Rove had spent almost $50 million in blitz ads, just at the point when Kerry was the most vulnerable to being pre-cast in an unfavorable light, and still have the race pretty much a standoff, was a huge failure on Bush's part, blowing his best chance to create a negative image of his opponent, a chance he will not get again. Morris declared if the election were held today Kerry would win.

True or not. It's an interesting indication of how -- when truth be told -- how reluctant the conservative support for Bush really is. When Bush collapses, he will collapse quickly and utterly. There are just too many, too afraid of being carried along in the landslide that will take him down.

[Timefortruth]

92. That doesn't make me feel better at all.

Dick Morris is a total moran, he is never right about anything. He is even an embarrassment to Faux.

[Iceburg]

90. Remember 1948 ... Give 'Em Hell Harry vs. The Polls

Try not to get discouraged ... these polls are highly dubious. And most importantly never forget the 1948 election.

http://history1900s.about.com/cs/trumanharry/a/deweytruman.htm

<snip>
On the morning after the 1948 presidential election, the Chicago Daily Tribune's headline read

"DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN."

That's what the Republicans, the polls, the newspapers, the political writers, and even many Democrats had expected. But in the largest political upset in U.S. history, Harry S. Truman surprised everyone when he, and not Thomas E. Dewey, won the 1948 election for president of the United States.
....

Give 'Em Hell Harry vs. The Polls

The polls, reporters, political writers - they all believed Dewey was going to win by a landslide. On September 9, 1948, Elmo Roper was so confident of a Dewey win that he announced there would be no further Roper Polls on this election. Roper said, "My whole inclination is to predict the election of Thomas E. Dewey by a heavy margin and devote my time and efforts to other things.

Truman was undaunted. He believed that with a lot of hard work, he could get the votes. Though it is usually the contender and not the incumbent that works hard to win the race, Dewey and the Republicans were so confident they were going to win - barring any major faux pas - that they decided to make an extremely low-key campaign.

Truman's campaign was based on getting out to the people. While Dewey was aloof and stuffy, Truman was open, friendly, and seemed one with the people. In order to talk to the people, Truman got in his special Pullman car, the Ferdinand Magellan, and traveled the country. In six weeks, Truman traveled approximately 32,000 miles and gave 355 speeches.3 <p> On this "Whistle-Stop Campaign," Truman would stop at town after town and give a speech, have people ask questions, introduce his family, and shake hands. From his dedication and strong will to fight as an underdog against the Republicans, Harry Truman acquired the slogan, "Give 'em hell, Harry!"

But even with perseverance, hard work, and large crowds, the media still didn't believe Truman had a fighting chance. While President Truman was still on the road campaigning, Newsweek polled 50 key political journalists to determine which candidate they thought would win. Appearing in the October 11 issue, Newsweek stated the results: all 50 believed Dewey would win.

h3]The Election
By election day, the polls showed that Truman had managed to cut Dewey's lead, but all media sources still believed Dewey would win by a landslide.

As the reports filtered in that night, Truman was ahead in the popular votes, but the newscasters still believed Truman didn't have a chance.

By four the next morning, Truman's success seemed undeniable. At 10:14 a.m., Dewey conceded the election to Truman.

Since the election results were a complete shock to the media, the Chicago Daily Tribune got caught with the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." The photograph with Truman holding aloft the paper has become one of the most famous newspaper photos of the century.

[Cocoa]

91. scroll down

there's other polls there, including a Zogby one with a larger sample that has Kerry ahead.

Why highlight the bad one?

[jackstraw45]

95. George Bush: Hero of the STUPID

I'm really ready to pull my hair out.

Are we living in the twilight zone?

[are_we_united_yet]

98. Sorry don't buy it

[BadGimp]

99. This is why they rolled back their ad spending

They needed to divert some of their funds to buying off as many of the polling outfits they could.

OK it's stretch but how far off can it be???

[SKKY]

101. I think we're in good shape...

We haven't even heard our first debate yet. Get these two guys face to face and Kerry will absolutely clean his clock. We all know what Kerry has in his closet. But Bush has many, many things he doesn't want to get out. I'm feeling pretty optimistic. Someone posted that if the last 2 weeks don't kill bush then nothing will. Well, wait until we turn control of Iraq over to the Governing Council in June. What happens after that will definitely seal his fate.

[sniffa]

102. bizzarro worLd