(ABC/WP Poll) Bush Holds Advantages Over Kerry, Poll Shows

[shockingelk]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25138-2004Apr19.html

Bush Holds Advantages Over Kerry, Poll Shows
Findings Also Show Iraq, War on Terror Have Surged in Importance to Voters

President Bush holds significant advantages over John F. Kerry in public perceptions of who is best equipped to deal with Iraq and the war on terror and has reduced the advantages his Democratic challenger held last month on many domestic issues, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

The poll also found that Iraq and the war on terrorism have surged in importanceand rank with the economy and jobs as top voting issues. Despite signs of concern among Americans about the violence in Iraq, the poll showed Bush's approval ratings holding steady and Kerry slipping in public esteem on a variety of issues and attributes.

In a matchup, Bush holds a 48 percent to 43 percent lead over Kerry among registered voters, with independent Ralph Nader at 6 percent. In early March, shortly after he effectively wrapped up the Democratic nomination, Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 44 percent.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. It's a nationwide poll and we know Nader won't be on every state ballot

Smells like bullshit.

[West Coast Democrat]

21. It's not even a poll of likely or registered voters....

according to the article, it's "randomly selected adults"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25138-2004Apr19_2.html

A total of 1,201 randomly selected adults were interviewed April 15-18 for this telephone survey. Margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus 3 percentage points

[alcuno]

22. It looks like the 48% to 43% are registered voters and the rest of

the poll is randomly selected adults. It could be.

[alcuno]

24. I'd like to add that registered voters are a different sample from likely

voters. Here's the AP/Ipsos Survey that never saw light last week.

Bush 45%
Kerry 44%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2121

[papau]

37. Bush Negative ads do pay off??? - maybe - with US Media help.. :-(

Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, PA.- A Brit soap marketing polling firm whose last 3 press releases were "Survey Finds Consumers Want Healthier Fast Food Choices But It Doesn't Keep Them Away from the Drive Thru", "Survey Finds Consumers Show Little Committment To Fast Food Brands Subway and Wendy's Outperform Bigger Spenders McDonald's and Burger King", and "Majority of U.S. Workers Lack Commitment To Employers TNS Study Finds Top Performing Companies Buck the Trend and Boost Bottom Line" - But this is the group that has done this poll in the past!



Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction 42%
Wrong track 57%
DK/No opinion 1%

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
4/18/04 51 33 18 47 13 34 1
3/7/04 50 32 18 48 12 36 2
2/11/04 50 30 21 47 14 34 2

3. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
4/18/04 30 45 16 9 0
3/7/04 33 42 18 7 *

Negative Ads work: He is honest and trustworthy

-------Bush--------- --------Kerry-------
Yes No No op. Yes No No op.
4/18/04 55 44 1 49 40 11
3/7/04 54 45 1 59 30 11

He understands the problems of people like you

-------Bush--------- --------Kerry-------
Yes No No op. Yes No No op.
4/18/04 41 57 2 51 40 10
3/7/04 41 57 2 58 34 8

He is a strong leader

-------Bush--------- --------Kerry-------
Yes No No op. Yes No No op.
4/18/04 64 36 1 52 38 11
3/7/04 63 36 1 61 29 10

http://csmonitor.com/2004/0419/p16s03-cogn.html

Those untaxed corporations earned $3.5 trillion of revenues - and our liberal media says nothing - so are the above results a real surprise?

[Catch22Dem]

2. Interesting, since...

Every other poll shows a Kerry lead. Even w/ Vader in the mix.

[saracat]

11. No they don't

The latest gallup/CNN also has Kerry trailing. I don't understand it. They finally get out alot of the info on Bush and people support him?

[Teaser]

13. Some polls K's up, Some he's down.

When the electorate is really 50/50 we're just going to have to get use to that fact.

[lupita]

34. I loved your Vader reference!

very funny!

[Catch22Dem]

46. Thanks

I'm silly that way. ;)

[Emboldened Chimp]

3. I don't get this!

Iraq is a mess of *'s creation, so he's the best one to handle it? That makes no f-in' sense.

[West Coast Democrat]

19. I think it's good that Iraq is really on the public's radar....

and remember that this poll, and the Gallup poll, were taken prior to the press of Woodward's new book.

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. oh no the sky is

oh wait, no it's not.

:)

[mzmolly]

5. Ya know, we need a PAC to counter Nader.

I've said that before. Who's in?

[Democat]

6. The right wing controls the media - that's why we're getting screwed

Without a voice in the media, those who aren't on the extreme right are going to have a very hard time.

[rainy]

7. These latest polls really upset me!

I just do not get it. What gives? How can people be so blind? Is it all the fault of media?

[Qutzupalotl]

8. The Daily Show has been off for a week.

And see what happens?

[bagnana]

12. People are upset and afraid.

They have seen a lot of news about terror and death, and are looking to him for reassurance. It will apparently take time for them to realize he is no antidote to either.

[shockingelk]

9. Things they won't be able to keep up

- their massive and fast spending on ads
- the entire cabinet being interviewed several times a week

[RoundRockD]

10. I agree. How can anyone think that this administration is doing a good

job? Is anybody paying attention to what's going on in this country? I just don't understand what it will take to wake this country up. I know it's too early to panic, but my god, what is it going to take? Sorry for venting, I'm just totally amazed and confused.

[GCP]

57. You have to remember there' a lag time of at least a week

Possibly two, between bad news from Iraq, books coming out etc before you'll see any change in these polls.
At least that's what I tell myself :wtf:

[Coventina]

14. Sometimes I feel like giving up.

This is one of those times.
:-(

[NeoConsSuck]

52. Never give up..

that's what the right wing media want you to do.

If anything, double your support efforts to the Kerry campaign.

http://www.johnkerry.com/

[Dover]

15. LOL! These poll results must be authored by the same guys who report

the facts on our "healthy" economy. LOL!

Everything's coming up roses...and Bushes!

[yardwork]

16. They don't give the margin of error.

They don't explain their sampling technique.

These polls are manipulated and the reporting of the results is spun pro-Bush.

23. They most certainly do

It's listed at the end with the other polling info as 3%. Did you actually read it?

[West Coast Democrat]

17. No, this isn't that great for Bush*

he's been spending MILLIONS just to keep his head above water and to stay within the margin of error with Kerry. Meanwhile, Kerry doesn't have to spend much at all, but Bush is getting bombarded from many sides.

[w4rma]

50. Yes, but Bush has the millions to spend. We don't have the resources

the Republican Party have at their disposal.

[West Coast Democrat]

59. Joe Conason agrees that Bush is looking weak

see the discussion of his article:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1444815

[screembloodymurder]

18. Face it

we are a nation of morans and Bush is the perfect leader.

[Hamlette]

20. negative ads work seems to be the lesson here

the polls before Bush hit the airwaves with those awful lying ads about Kerry showed Kerry with a comfortable lead.

I'm thinking Kerry better start running his own negative ads. Makes me sick to say it. And he better get his message out about what he supports. And, let's start talking about this "wonderful" economy.

Depressing. But next week they may be up so don't lose hope.

[progressivebydesign]

25. Without Nader? Add 6% to Kerry, cuz they'd never go to Bush! N/T

[grasswire]

26. the detail is here

...and it contains some good news for Dems.

HOWEVER, it is time for Kerry to present an alternative to Bush. I believe the numbers are slippery because people just don't know what Kerry would do as president that would be more beneficial to us all.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/vault/stories/trend041804.html

[qanda]

27. I wonder if any of this has to do with black voters

I've heard more blacks than usual calling into C-SPAN with support for Bush*. I, myself black, feel their frustration with the Democratic Party and while I would never ever vote for Bush* can almost understand some blacks casting a protest vote against the party that seems to take the black vote completely for granted.

[BillZBubb]

33. So Dems take blacks for granted?

And because of that they'd vote for a Repug? The reasoning being the Repugs won't take them for granted or worse as they have in the not so distant past? Dems at least still try to fight for fairness and affirmative action. What has Bush* done on those issues? Oh, let me think...

That's really the definition of cutting off one's nose to spite one's face.

[qanda]

36. I'm not assuming anything--

I'm asking a question that is begging to be asked. Bush* parades around black people in key positions in his administration and at some point don't you think that blacks in the Democratic Party are going to start thinking that maybe they can have a voice by joining the Republican Party?

To outright dismiss what I'm saying by giving the old line of how much the Democrats have done for blacks is a big problem. As the old saying goes, "What have you done for me lately!" Affirmative action is not the only issue that affects black people and more and more black people are becoming quite successful and so they are reevaluating their thinking to include whether the Democratic Party best serves their interest.

[Ferretherder]

54. So are you saying that as more and more black people become...

...successful, they are thinking of turning their backs on the only party that wants to give EVERY person, black, white or other, the chance to do the same?

Edit: to add word.

[Sunny_Sunshine]

56. The saddest part of Condi Rice's testimony

Was her continually saying "I wasn't asked to do that." over and over. She has no authority, she's a flunky, a token, window dressing. And Colin Powell's been kept completely out of the loop.

I hear what you're saying but the repugs are all perception and no reality.

[CityDem]

28. This is not encouraging for JFK

Both the Gallup/CNN and ABC/WP polls show Bush leading JFK by about 5%, which is a significant swing from the previous polls. The internals show that the people polled view GWB as a strong, decisive leader (barf!). All of this after the 9/11 hearings and the mess in Iraq. I cannot beleive how people can support Bush given the state of our country. This is not a good sign.

[lancdem]

29. Barf is right

:)

[fearnobush]

30. These numbers only prove more work needs to be done.

And have no fear, Clinton was 22 pts behind Bush 41 in april 1992.
Kerry needs to get off his ass and both define himself as well as blast Bush for all the lies he tells about him - with ads because the media whores give him only 1/3 the air time as Bush.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

43. Sorry, but those numbers prove nothing. Consider the source.

[pacifictiger]

31. I'm not too surprised at this

Bush has been spending big bucks on advertising and Kerry has been on vacation and in the hospital for the past few weeks, saying very little.

I ran across an interesting piece online last week (sorry no link - I forgot to write down the websource)that confirms the liberal media myth.
Various think-tank findings were cited in the media "Based on a Nexis database search of major newspapers, radio and TV transcripts for 1995"
conservative - 7792 times
centrist - 6361 times
progressive - 1152 times.
------
Keep in mind this was 1995 - and how much worse it has become since then!! Are we so surprised then that Bush is ahead when his supporters tout their views the majority of the time in the media to the non-thinking or too-busy-putting-food-on-the-table public?
The fact that they are so close in the polls at the moment indicates there are a phenomenal amount of people that really want him out!!!!

[devinsgram]

32. Has anyone ever noticed

that Nader always gets 6%, never 4 or 5, most always 6.I find that strange, almost like they're talking to the same people, over and over.

[Failure]

35. This is proof

Of how STUPID, literally STUPID, and UNAWARE, and APATHETIC the American people really are.

[Amerpie]

38. warwarwarwarwarwar

CNN said today that Kerry's numbers are going down in large part because he is sounding so hawkish on the war. The left is abandoning him.

[osaMABUSh]

41. Is left not going to vote for Kerry and let Bush get re-elected?

I doubt it. Being too hawkish is not the problem. He has to beat Bush at is own game. He has to show the Amercian people that he can finish/end a war. He has to win the middle.

[Amerpie]

48. Rush to the center

The opposite of the right is not the center.

We had a centrist president for eight years. He couldn't deliver on health care, peace or moral authority. He could however deliver on antiunion, anti-poor and anti-environmental legislation.

In their haste to appeal to the center, Democratic candidates are abandoning the left, too blind to see that by doing so, they are dooming themselves. Perhaps it's the media's fault, since they doom left leaning candidates from the start. The smart folks who want to get elected should figure out a way around that.

[kera]

39. I would like to remind all of you

that Kerry before primary was even not known, and was doing miserably to such an extent that he had to mortgage his house which mean that he won the primary not on the merit, his leadership or anything else, most voters in primary were democrats don't forget this fact, and even then they voted for the stupid concept of elect ability whatever that means.

Conclusion, he is not benefiting from bush problems if the polls are to be believed. I am very close to Joe Doe, they don't even watch the news. May be more than half don't even know about what is going on. I polled randomly this week 30 persons- colleges graduates, in their 30-50 , about the books that just came out about all chimp scandales, and you know what, they shyly said, they missed it . MIssed it! for now more than 3 months revelations.

Here is my impression and please don't be mad at me . My insight may be worth something because I see things from the prism of 4 different cultures and languages.

Kerry is stiff, comes across not very Strong on principles .I was going to say unprincipled may be less than the junta of course.


His speeches are delivered in monotonous voice, he tries to put some passion in them, but it comes out like a faded scream

And besides some cliches about improving economy which is beyond the comprehension of the vulgum pecus, the majority , his addresses don't carry even a shade Hope. Hope is always in the voice vibrations. And I have not felt it.
I wish He could or his staff ask me for help .

[osaMABUSh]

40. Irony - If Clark not the VP then Bush will win because of Iraq

Get this. Bush secretly plans a war, lies about WMD, then starts a war that the world was against, runs it poorly, spends hundreds of billions, kills hundreds of American soldiers, kills thousands of Iraqi's, actually make the US less safe against terrorism BUT he appears to the American people to be better at running a war then John Kerry.

So the ultimate irony: Bush could win not in spite of Iraq but because of Iraq.

The American people are looking for a way out of Iraq and Gen. Wesley Clark can bring that kind of experience to the table. Without Clark, Kerry finishes second to Bush on the war/terror issue and ultimately loses the election.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

42. Polls are based on those most likely to vote...

...not those who WILL vote in this coming election.

Remember the following points:

- Polls can be skewed in any way a pollster desires.

- Polls are conducted by organizations that are part of the captive mainstream media.

[leesa]

44. The corporate media will put these polls out over and over again

The ONLY way they can steal this election is to create the illusion of a close race. These are the same corporatists who have hijacked our media.
And there will be plants here who will lament the terrible news of the polls. It's all smoke and mirrors.
Remember, our corporate controllers do not want us to think there is any true choice outside of 'far right' anymore. Kerry is only slightly left of Dubya. They conned people into thinking a reasonable person like Dean was crazy. Why? Because he would not have been likely to carry on the corporate whoring going on in our government. Same with Kucinich.

[question everything]

45. Polls Show Bush Boosted By Public Focus On War - WSJ report

April 19, 2004 6:57 p.m. EDT

(snip)

The ABC-Washington Post and CNN-USA Today-Gallup polls, both released Monday, showed Bush with a slight lead over Kerry in a three-way matchup with independent Ralph Nader.

Bush was up 48%-43% over Kerry among registered voters, with Nader at 6% in the ABC-Post poll. In the CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, Bush was ahead 50%-44% among likely voters, with Nader at 4%.

Over the past few weeks, Bush has wiped out Kerry's advantage on all domestic issues except health-care insurance, where Kerry still holds a small lead, the ABC-Post poll found. Bush still holds a double-digit lead over Kerry on the war in Iraq and fighting terrorism.

(snip)

The ABC-Post poll of 1,201 adults, including 1,024 registered voters, was taken April 15-18; the Gallup poll of 1,003 adults, including 767 likely voters, was taken April 16-18. Both have margins of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,BT_CO_20040419_008095,00.html

[True_Blue]

47. I'll bet it was the Nov. election terrorism warning

Terror is the only thing that has ever been able to boost AWOL's approval rating.

God, how much longer do we have to live through this national nightmare?

[dbt]

49. What does Zogby say?

That's the only poll that's worth your time and energy, the only one that even approaches being correct.

:evilgrin:
dbt

[DeepModem Mom]

53. Zogby has Kerry ahead 47-44%

Released: April 18, 2004
Kerry Holds Three-Point Advantage; No Real Movement; American Electorate Hardened And Polarized, New Zogby International Poll Reveals

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds a three-point lead (47%-44%) over President George W. Bush among likely voters, according to a new Zogby International poll. The poll of 1049 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (April 15-17, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1....

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=821

[slackmaster]

58. There's only one poll that matters

The one that will be taken in November, of every registered voter who bothers to participate.

Interesting that Zogby polls are good when they say Kerry is ahead, but bad when they say a majority of Americans oppose gay marriage. I don't trust any polls, frankly.

[oasis]

51. Kerry is in no danger. He'll do his heavy hitting late in the game.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

55. Bush just spent $50 million on advertising

and the result is a statistical dead heat. The Bush Campaign announced recently that they're going to reduce their television advertising for the next several months. Think the Shi'ites will reduce the number of U.S. soldiers they kill? Think the price of gas is going to go down in the next month (the fix isn't in until Labor Day)? Think U.S. companies are going to stop outsourcing and pay their taxes?

Not bloody likely.

Bush would have to keep airing ads like he has during the past month (at a cost of some $300-400 million) just to stay even. This administration is crumbling -- the Secretary of State is already a lame duck and the National Security Advisor runs the risk of being indicted for perjury and the Attorney General is just plain spooky. Every day they stay in office is another day we pick up a handful of indepdent voters.