Obama says reelection odds are better now than 2008

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) - President Barack Obama believes that his odds of being reelected in 2012 are "much higher" than his odds were in the 2008 election.

The president spoke at a small campaign fundraiser in Washington, D.C. on Thursday night, where he sought to reassure donors and play down concerns of his weakness in the 2012 presidential race.

"Now, I know that, over the last couple of months, there have been Democrats who voiced concerns and nervousness about, well, in this kind of economy, isn't this just - aren't these just huge headwinds in terms of your reelection? Here's one thing I know for certain:

The odds of me being reelected are much higher than the odds of me being elected in the first place," the president said.

Read more: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/16/obama-says-reelection-odds-are-better-now-than-2008/

[still_one]

1. Not the most intelligent thing to say, whether it is true or not /nt

[MannyGoldstein]

2. We knew a Democrat would be elected in 2008

Between the Republican's egregious awfulness, and Dr. Dean's excellence in running the DNC, there was no question a Democrat would win - we just weren't sure which one.

Now that the Democrats have failed to deliver on their most important promises, have repeatedly mooned their base, and have not figured out that appeasing bullies never works, we're in a whole different world.

[caseymoz]

23. Yes and no.

After September 2008, when the financial crisis hit, then there was no doubt a Democrat would win. By then we knew which one. In hindsight, there was probably no doubt a Democrat would win after McCain chose Palin as his running mate.

[MannyGoldstein]

29. IIRC, the Republicans were already in full retreat

We creamed 'em in the 2006 elections, people were very angry at them.

[caseymoz]

37. I wouldn't say it was full retreat.

But you're right.

[MannyGoldstein]

38. It's the craziest thing. We had them by the throat, and let 'em go,

I'm reminded of the quote attributed to Lincoln regarding the failed General Burnside: "Only Burnside could have managed such a coup, wringing one last spectacular defeat from the jaws of victory."

[SomeGuyInEagan]

39. "We had them by the throat, and let 'em go" +1

Yeah. Frustrating, isn't it.

[FreeStateDemocrat]

3. Medical marijuana overdose in the White House, 8 miles high and climbing.

[Luciferous]

4. Is Obama delusional? Everyone was so sick of Bush and company

in 2008, I think just about any Democrat would have been elected. Obama is probably going to have a tough time getting reelected, unless things change dramatically in the next year, and I don't see that happening.

[snooper2]

10. Man you people have real short memories...

Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers
McCain is a war hero! Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright
Oh look at the shiny Palin with all the nutfucker old white racist folks isn't she great!
It's not Obama's time, he's to young,
Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright
Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers
McCain is a war hero! Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright
Oh look at the shiny Palin with all the nutfucker old white racist folks isn't she great!
It's not Obama's time, he's to young,
Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright
Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers
McCain is a war hero! Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright
Oh look at the shiny Palin with all the nutfucker old white racist folks isn't she great!
It's not Obama's time, he's to young,
Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright
Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers
McCain is a war hero! Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright
Oh look at the shiny Palin with all the nutfucker old white racist folks isn't she great!
It's not Obama's time, he's to young,
Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright
Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers
McCain is a war hero! Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright
Oh look at the shiny Palin with all the nutfucker old white racist folks isn't she great!
It's not Obama's time, he's to young,
Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright Bill Ayers Jeremiah Wright

[young but wise]

13. Yes, people do.

It's quite sad.

[jeff47]

22. Noone is saying Obama wasn't attacked. They're saying that W screwed up so badly no R could win.

The only thing remarkable about Obama's election is before the nomination. Once he was nominated, it was his race to lose.

This time around, that's not the case. He can't campaign on hope and change again. He has to campaign on his record, and that's not looking too hot right now (mostly due to his poor economic decisions)

[Yo_Mama]

45. Yes, that's the problem with a "revulsion" election

Carter, for example.

What Obama has going for him is that people like him. His more generic polling numbers are still very good considering the economic problems.

But as you say, the reelection campaign is a totally different proposition - his opponents will attack him on his record, and just being a Democrat won't be enough to put him over the line.

I think he will campaign on his record (or part of it), and I think he will generally get high marks from the electorate for certain strengths (integrity, personality, etc). But it is hard to believe that it will be enough with the economy in this shape, and with the knotty questions he and any candidate is facing. Also, I think a big portion of the electorate is feeling somewhat betrayed by him.

When he won (and he certainly had a big majority compared to recent history) he had a lot of support from Independents. He's lost that big edge. It is going to be a real struggle for him. Another thing - Obama got 66% of the 18-29 crowd. It's hard to see that happening again given unemployment among the young. My guess is that many won't vote for the other candidate, but less will turn out to vote at all.

These are the exit polls - if you start running through the groups and thinking of turnout, it's clear that Obama can easily lose. He'll probably be saved if the GOP nominates somebody really unattractive, but right now the edge is really to the Republicans, due to the likely turnout changes and the bad economy.

Of course, in a lot of ways it won't matter if he wins or not. Policy will be controlled by events and Congress very shortly, so if he wins and gets a slim majority in the Senate, he's probably going to go ueberGOP on us anyway.

[vets74]

5. Stating the obvious.

Unless you thought in 2007-2008 that "Barack Hussein" and being Black were overwhelming advantages ?

Plus, Americans are finally waking up to an equally obvious rebranding effort :::

John Birch Society + White Citizens Council = the "Tea Party"

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[onehandle]

7. First blatant political lie of his that I can recall. nt

[Donnachaidh]

8. a wee bit arrogant, and potentially out of touch, yes?

Err, mr. president -- I remember you using a word *shellacking* after the 10 elections. Those were supposed to be *in the bag* too.

FEAR the karma gods....

[Harry Monroe]

9. I wouldn't count on that Mr. President.

We are on very shaky ground if that's what you're going to base your campaign on. Perry is a charismatic huckster and snake-oil peddler of the first degree and can easily fool an American voting public who is fed on a continuous diet of reality television and 24 hour news cycles of bullshit news propagands. If you're counting on the public voting for the sane alternative, you need to set your self apart from the looneys. Tacking to the right and compromising with the very party opposing you in the election is not a very viable campaign strategy.

[tblue]

24. Yep! And please stop blaming "Congress" & start blaming "Republicans."

How can anyone who isn't watching closely understand the difference when he muddle it every time he opens his mouth? Or gives Republicans whatever they want?

He lives in a bubble.

[veganlush]

47. you're right

that's what frustrates me too. He talks as if everyone is a political junkie like many of us are. I work with people and meet people nearly everyday who live a little world of American Idol, DWTS, paying the bills, playing video games, etc. people who don't know who their reps. in congress are, and who definitely don't understand how the process works.I hear this one alot: "why are the democrats complaining, they control two of the three branches" as in, they control the white house and the senate. These knuckleheads out here don't know the the ignorant 2010 voters handed the legislative agenda over to the sworn enemy and that the speaker controls what gets voted on and what doesn't. The white house biggest failure in my judgment is simply in the fact that they aren't educating the public. If people understood how ACA actually works, for example, many many more would be in favor of it. It's just one example of a rich vein that's going untapped.

[Kolesar]

11. Every year, the electorate becomes 0.5% "less white" ... eom

[Mr Gerrity]

12. If we stand behind him

this is a true statement.

[Harry Monroe]

14. We as Democrats, yes.

But he has to convince the independent voters, which are critical to winning the election. He needs these independents and needs to give them a compelling reason for them to vote for him again. So far, he is failing miserably in that task. Optimism and faith in the American voting public having good sense is not a very good campaign strategy.

[Mr Gerrity]

16. Solid base

If he has a solid base behind him, he can accomplish that. If he has to keep looking over his left shoulder to make sure there is support he is not going to win. I think he has accomplished a lot in a bitterly divided country. A situation that has been exacerbated by the do nothing repukes that would rather the country go down, than pass the President's plan.

[Harry Monroe]

18. You have to have your base behind you, sure

But a "solid base" alone does not win elections. You have to convince the independent voters and those 10% or so undecided voters. He's not doing a very good job of that.

[Ishoutandscream2]

15. If it's Perry or Bachman, then I agree. Romney? Look out

[Harry Monroe]

17. After this statement, I wouldn't be so sure about Romney.

“I think it was last weekend, I was watching C-SPAN, and I saw Vice President Dick Cheney, and he was being asked questions about a whole host of issues -- following 9/11, the affairs in various countries in the world,” Romney said. “And I listened to him speak and said whether you agree or disagree with him, this is a man of wisdom and judgment, and he could have been president of the United States. That's the kind of person I’d like to have -- a person of wisdom and judgment."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/15/mitt-romney-dick-cheney-vice-president_n_964644.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000009

[Ishoutandscream2]

21. Boy, yikes! Lotta folks hate the evil Dick

That was a slip up by Mittens for sure.

[Zorra]

19. Bartender! Over here!

I'll have whatever he's having.

Scratch that - make it a double.

[mainstreetonce]

20. in the first place

I think when he says in the first place, he is comparing his odds of being reelected to the odds of him being elected when he very first appeared on the political scene before the 08 primaries. I think he is right in that regard but it still doesn't make his chances easy.

[BadgerKid]

25. I was half-expecting a link to

an article from The Onion on how he meant the Republican re-election odds are better now than in 2008.

[Johnson20]

26. Nonsense. n/t

[JJW]

27. He's the inevitable candidate

Just like Hillary was.

[Dutchmaster]

28. Obama is a 1 term president

He has completely lost the center and a good number progressive democrats. He's toast and he has no one to blame but himself.

[scheming daemons]

41. Thanks for your input, Mrs. Bachmann

[Jakes Progress]

30. It seems that he's been listening to his advisors.

You know. The ones who told him to play nice with the republicans so they would like him. The ones who told him to go after public schools and teacher unions. The ones who told him to avoid investigating the bush war criminals. The ones who told him to toss SS on the table. The ones who told him to trash liberals and progressives as the reason the country was in trouble.

Yeah. and the dozen or so on DU who keep telling him he can do no wrong and that everything is hunky dory and that he doesn't need all those poopie-head liberals.

[OnyxCollie]

31. He listened to the advisor

who told him not to enforce his order for ES&S to divest its current monopoly on vote counting machines.

That's the one who really matters.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

32. Uh.....

:wow:

:banghead:

[stlsaxman]

33. Well- DUH!!! Obama wasn't up for re-election in 2008!

:freak:

[tawadi]

34. We need some optimism

Keep it comin' Mr. President. :thumbsup:

[FreeBillClinton]

35. Blue Dog President, a fake democrat.

Oh hey, look at this:

http://www.sandersforpresident.org/

[ngant17]

36. he should have ran his administration as if he was a 1-termer

and I think he would have made a better impression for me. He could have made the effort to withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan. End Cuban boycott/embargo. Lots of other leftist/progressive but poltically-unstable stances which needed to be acted on. I'm not saying he would have succeeded with all the RW lowlifes in power to block the agenda, but he could have been the historical President to have tried to do these things.

Now we are still stuck in the endless wars forever. A Repug taking over will not make it any better.

Cuban embargo has ossified itself almost as if it was now a part of the US Constitution. Essentially he allows a RW minority in Miami to continue to dictate foreign policy.

Economy will probably severely crash under a Pepug anyway, like it did with Hoover and the Great Depression. So being a one-termer might be a blessing in disguise. We could get a real progressive Dem. after all is said and done.

[No Elephants]

40. He's correct.

First, incumbents always have an advantage.

Second, he is not asking voters to put a person of color into the WH for the first time ever.

Third, American voters have NEVER voted out an incumbent while the country was at war. Never.

Fourth, the Republican field stinks.

[Amonester]

42. Fourth. I can't believe the country would elect a bu$h 2 (from TX, no less)...

but it's the teaRori$t$ 're-districting' and 'e-voting' machines that have me :scared: to no end.

[DeadEyeDyck]

43. the only way to read that statement correctly is to amend it as...

"the odds of me being elected as opposed to Hillary..."

there was no doubt in anyone's mind that a Dem was going to be the next President. Until the Tim Russert debate where Hillary stumbled horribly on the driver's license question, she was assumed to be the nominee.

[No Elephants]

46. Obama was always the nominee. We thought a real primary battle was going on,

until we heard about how Harry Reid had sold Obama to the other Democratic honchos.

I wonder when Hillary found out?

[Fool Count]

44. That may only be true, if it is, because this time around

he will not have to face a credible primaries opponent.