Jobless Claims in U.S. Drop on Seasonal Adjustment Difficulties

[stockholmer]

Source: Bloomberg

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell more than forecast last week as an atypical calendar alignment made it more difficult for the government to adjust the data for seasonal changes.

Applications for jobless benefits dropped by 37,000 in the week ended Sept. 24 to 391,000, the fewest since April, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 420,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. An agency official said the data probably reflected a “slight mistiming” in the seasonal factors used to modify the figures.

The pace of firings has remained little changed this year while companies are reluctant to hire at a time when the economy is slowing and concerns of a European default rise. Federal Reserve policy makers last week announced more unconventional measures to boost jobs and the economy.

“The trend in claims has been sideways, suggesting there hasn’t been any significant weakening in recent weeks and no improvement either,” Michael Gapen, a senior U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the report. “Higher macro uncertainty means firms don’t necessarily get rid of workers but they don’t add them either.”

snip



Read more: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-29/jobless-claims-in-u-s-drop-on-seasonal-adjustment-difficulties.html

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/initial-claims-beats-multiple-standard-deviations-bls-revisions-jump-again


We grow weary of reporting the consistent statistical anomaly that is the prior revision UP in the initial jobless claims. Headlines will read of the impressive job 'improving' situation as initial claims fell 37k on the week (a two standard deviation improvement which seems extremely unlikely given the macro/micro backdrop). Once again proving their ineptitude, the claims print was massively better than even the most optimistic economist estimate - an incredible six standard deviations better than consensus. This is the lowest initial claims print since April 1st (ironic really) and only the second time below 400k in the last 25 weeks - though for a moment we must have some hope that this is a trend as ES pops 10pts.

UPDATE: Via Bloomberg (we couldn't resist) from TD Securities' Eric Green: "If its too good to believe, it probably is, and the BLS says as much"

Week-over-week change in initial claims (SA) showing the flip-flopping oscillation and extreme nature of this print (and note previous reactions to such extreme prints).

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In other words, even the BLS says that this number is pure shite.

[Fuddnik]

1. Why does the BLS hate Amerika?

Can't they at least keep catapulting the propaganda?

[pinqy]

2. BLS hasn't commented on the claims

I can't find the original quote by Eric Green (not on Bloomberg), but since BLS has nothing to do with UI claims they would not make any comment on them...they don't comment on anything but their own data.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (09/29/2011)

Source: Employment and Training Administration, Department of Labor

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending September 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 391,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 428,000. The 4-week moving average was 417,000, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average of 422,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending September 17, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 17 was 3,729,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,749,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,743,000, a decrease of 4,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,747,500.

Read more: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20111399.htm

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Sorry I'm late. Huge drop this week.

[YellowCosmicSun]

4. Good news.

[Change Happens]

5. Great, and GDP was higher too! Higher than the original number...nt

[ChandlerJr]

6. When the moon is in the 7th house

and Jupiter aligns with Mars.

For Dogs sakes what calender are they using? Mayan?

[DallasNE]

7. It Would Help

If there was regional reporting. Yes, regional reporting would have more swings than the national reporting but it would also help point out outliner reporting within a region. Holidays sometimes mess up the reporting but there was no holiday in this reporting period. Granted, these numbers just don't swing like this so I too would take them with a grain of salt. Next weeks numbers should smooth this out because they adjust the figures. Keep an eye on the 4 week moving average too.

[Beacool]

8. Although this sounds promising, we'll have to wait to see if it stands.

I heard on the radio this morning that the analysts struggled to come up with the figure and that it probably will be adjusted.

:-)